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Tags:
economics
quantitative-finance
causal-inference
macroeconomics
housing-economics
market-microstructure
License:
| """Leakage-safe L1 and trade-flow research features and labels. | |
| The normalized ``available_ts_ns`` column is the information-set clock. Book | |
| observations at a decision are observable at that decision, while trades from a | |
| separate archive stream are joined strictly before it unless a future adapter | |
| can prove a shared ordering. Every rolling operation is scoped by | |
| ``continuity_id`` so sequence gaps cannot contaminate a new book segment. | |
| """ | |
| from __future__ import annotations | |
| from dataclasses import dataclass | |
| import polars as pl | |
| from microstructure.config import FeatureConfig | |
| class ResearchDataError(ValueError): | |
| """Raised when normalized inputs do not satisfy the research contract.""" | |
| class TemporalLeakageError(ResearchDataError): | |
| """Raised when feature lineage or label timing reaches beyond its cutoff.""" | |
| class TemporalAudit: | |
| """Summary returned after validating a supervised research frame.""" | |
| rows: int | |
| labeled_rows: int | |
| right_censored_rows: int | |
| continuity_segments: int | |
| BOOK_REQUIRED_COLUMNS = frozenset( | |
| { | |
| "symbol", | |
| "event_ts_ns", | |
| "available_ts_ns", | |
| "continuity_id", | |
| "sequence_end", | |
| "is_valid", | |
| "best_bid", | |
| "best_ask", | |
| "bid_quantity", | |
| "ask_quantity", | |
| } | |
| ) | |
| TRADE_REQUIRED_COLUMNS = frozenset( | |
| { | |
| "symbol", | |
| "trade_id", | |
| "available_ts_ns", | |
| "quantity", | |
| "aggressor_side", | |
| } | |
| ) | |
| _STATIC_MODEL_FEATURES = ( | |
| "spread_bps", | |
| "depth_total_l1", | |
| "depth_total_l5", | |
| "depth_total_l10", | |
| "queue_imbalance_l1", | |
| "queue_imbalance_l5", | |
| "queue_imbalance_l10", | |
| "microprice_deviation_bps", | |
| "ofi_l1", | |
| "log_mid_return_1", | |
| "realized_price_impact_bps_1", | |
| "spread_recovery_bps_1", | |
| "depth_recovery_l1_1", | |
| ) | |
| _MODEL_FEATURE_PREFIXES = ( | |
| "cancellation_intensity_w", | |
| "ofi_w", | |
| "signed_trade_volume_w", | |
| "trade_volume_w", | |
| "trade_count_w", | |
| "trade_intensity_w", | |
| "realized_volatility_w", | |
| ) | |
| DEPTH_DELTA_REQUIRED_COLUMNS = frozenset( | |
| { | |
| "venue", | |
| "symbol", | |
| "event_ts_ns", | |
| "available_ts_ns", | |
| "continuity_id", | |
| "first_update_id", | |
| "last_update_id", | |
| "bids", | |
| "asks", | |
| } | |
| ) | |
| def _require_columns(frame: pl.DataFrame, required: frozenset[str], table: str) -> None: | |
| missing = sorted(required.difference(frame.columns)) | |
| if missing: | |
| raise ResearchDataError(f"{table} is missing required columns: {missing}") | |
| def _assert_normalized_books(books: pl.DataFrame) -> None: | |
| _require_columns(books, BOOK_REQUIRED_COLUMNS, "book observations") | |
| if books.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError("book observations must not be empty") | |
| invalid = books.filter( | |
| (pl.col("available_ts_ns") < pl.col("event_ts_ns")) | |
| | (pl.col("best_bid") <= 0) | |
| | (pl.col("best_ask") <= 0) | |
| | (pl.col("bid_quantity") < 0) | |
| | (pl.col("ask_quantity") < 0) | |
| | (pl.col("is_valid") & (pl.col("best_bid") >= pl.col("best_ask"))) | |
| ) | |
| if not invalid.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError( | |
| "book observations contain impossible timing, price, quantity, or valid crossed-book rows" | |
| ) | |
| duplicates = ( | |
| books.group_by(["symbol", "continuity_id", "sequence_end"]).len().filter(pl.col("len") > 1) | |
| ) | |
| if not duplicates.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError("book sequence keys must be unique within each continuity segment") | |
| ordered = books.sort(["symbol", "continuity_id", "sequence_end"]) | |
| backwards = ordered.filter( | |
| pl.col("available_ts_ns") | |
| < pl.col("available_ts_ns").shift(1).over(["symbol", "continuity_id"]) | |
| ) | |
| if not backwards.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError( | |
| "available_ts_ns must be nondecreasing by sequence within each continuity segment" | |
| ) | |
| def _prepare_trades(trades: pl.DataFrame | None) -> pl.DataFrame | None: | |
| if trades is None or trades.is_empty(): | |
| return None | |
| _require_columns(trades, TRADE_REQUIRED_COLUMNS, "trades") | |
| invalid = trades.filter( | |
| (pl.col("quantity") < 0) | |
| | (~pl.col("aggressor_side").str.to_lowercase().is_in(["buy", "sell"])) | |
| ) | |
| if not invalid.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError("trades require nonnegative quantity and buy/sell aggressor_side") | |
| group = ["symbol", "continuity_id"] if "continuity_id" in trades.columns else ["symbol"] | |
| identity_columns = ["symbol"] | |
| if "continuity_id" in trades.columns: | |
| identity_columns.append("continuity_id") | |
| return ( | |
| trades.sort([*group, "available_ts_ns", "trade_id"]) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| pl.when(pl.col("aggressor_side").str.to_lowercase() == "buy") | |
| .then(1.0) | |
| .otherwise(-1.0) | |
| .alias("_trade_sign"), | |
| ) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| (pl.col("quantity") * pl.col("_trade_sign")).alias("_signed_quantity"), | |
| pl.col("quantity").alias("_absolute_quantity"), | |
| pl.lit(1, dtype=pl.Int64).alias("_trade_observation"), | |
| ) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| pl.col("_signed_quantity").cum_sum().over(group).alias("_cum_signed"), | |
| pl.col("_absolute_quantity").cum_sum().over(group).alias("_cum_volume"), | |
| pl.col("_trade_observation").cum_sum().over(group).alias("_cum_count"), | |
| ) | |
| .select( | |
| *identity_columns, | |
| pl.col("available_ts_ns").alias("trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns"), | |
| "_cum_signed", | |
| "_cum_volume", | |
| "_cum_count", | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| def build_cancellation_intensity_features( | |
| depth_deltas: pl.DataFrame, | |
| *, | |
| windows: tuple[int, ...] = (20, 100), | |
| ) -> pl.DataFrame: | |
| """Build causal cancellation-intensity proxies from observable L2 deletes. | |
| Binance diff-depth encodes a zero quantity as removal of that price level. | |
| Those deletes are directly observable; an update to a smaller nonzero | |
| quantity is not classified here because its cancellation/execution split is | |
| not identifiable from the delta alone. Windows are event-count windows, | |
| include the current available delta, and reset at every continuity epoch. | |
| """ | |
| _require_columns(depth_deltas, DEPTH_DELTA_REQUIRED_COLUMNS, "depth deltas") | |
| if depth_deltas.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError("depth deltas must not be empty") | |
| normalized_windows = tuple(sorted(set(windows))) | |
| if not normalized_windows or any(isinstance(window, bool) or window < 1 for window in windows): | |
| raise ResearchDataError("cancellation windows must be positive integers") | |
| group = ["venue", "symbol", "continuity_id"] | |
| ordered = depth_deltas.sort([*group, "last_update_id", "first_update_id"]) | |
| invalid = ordered.filter( | |
| pl.col("continuity_id").is_null() | |
| | (pl.col("available_ts_ns") < pl.col("event_ts_ns")) | |
| | (pl.col("first_update_id") > pl.col("last_update_id")) | |
| ) | |
| if not invalid.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError( | |
| "depth deltas require a continuity ID, observable availability, and valid ranges" | |
| ) | |
| duplicates = ( | |
| ordered.group_by([*group, "first_update_id", "last_update_id"]) | |
| .len() | |
| .filter(pl.col("len") > 1) | |
| ) | |
| if not duplicates.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError("depth-delta sequence ranges must be unique within an epoch") | |
| prior_end = pl.col("last_update_id").shift(1).over(group) | |
| prior_available = pl.col("available_ts_ns").shift(1).over(group) | |
| broken = ordered.filter( | |
| prior_end.is_not_null() | |
| & ( | |
| (pl.col("last_update_id") <= prior_end) | |
| | (pl.col("first_update_id") > prior_end + 1) | |
| | (pl.col("available_ts_ns") < prior_available) | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| if not broken.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError( | |
| "depth deltas contain a stale/gapped sequence or reversing availability clock" | |
| ) | |
| per_event = ordered.with_columns( | |
| ( | |
| pl.col("bids").list.eval(pl.element().struct.field("quantity_lots") == 0).list.sum() | |
| + pl.col("asks").list.eval(pl.element().struct.field("quantity_lots") == 0).list.sum() | |
| ) | |
| .fill_null(0) | |
| .cast(pl.Int64) | |
| .alias("cancellation_deletes_current"), | |
| (pl.col("bids").list.len() + pl.col("asks").list.len()) | |
| .cast(pl.Int64) | |
| .alias("depth_updates_current"), | |
| pl.col("available_ts_ns").alias("decision_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("available_ts_ns").alias("feature_cutoff_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("available_ts_ns").alias("max_feature_source_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("last_update_id").alias("decision_sequence"), | |
| pl.col("last_update_id").alias("max_feature_source_sequence"), | |
| pl.lit("zero_quantity_level_deletes_only").alias("cancellation_observation_policy"), | |
| pl.lit(False).alias("nonzero_reduction_classified_as_cancellation"), | |
| ) | |
| expressions: list[pl.Expr] = [] | |
| for window in normalized_windows: | |
| deletes = ( | |
| pl.col("cancellation_deletes_current") | |
| .rolling_sum(window_size=window, min_samples=1) | |
| .over(group) | |
| ) | |
| updates = ( | |
| pl.col("depth_updates_current") | |
| .rolling_sum(window_size=window, min_samples=1) | |
| .over(group) | |
| ) | |
| expressions.extend( | |
| [ | |
| deletes.alias(f"cancellation_deletes_w{window}"), | |
| updates.alias(f"depth_updates_w{window}"), | |
| pl.when(updates > 0) | |
| .then(deletes / updates) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| .cast(pl.Float64) | |
| .alias(f"cancellation_intensity_w{window}"), | |
| ] | |
| ) | |
| return per_event.with_columns(expressions).sort( | |
| ["decision_ts_ns", "venue", "symbol", "continuity_id", "decision_sequence"] | |
| ) | |
| def _join_trade_history(books: pl.DataFrame, trades: pl.DataFrame | None) -> pl.DataFrame: | |
| if trades is None: | |
| return books.with_columns( | |
| pl.lit(None, dtype=pl.Int64).alias("trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.lit(0.0).alias("_cum_signed"), | |
| pl.lit(0.0).alias("_cum_volume"), | |
| pl.lit(0, dtype=pl.Int64).alias("_cum_count"), | |
| ) | |
| # Equal timestamps are deliberately excluded. Archive trade and book | |
| # streams do not share a provable exchange-wide sequence. When trades carry | |
| # segment provenance, both their cumulative state and join stay gap-local. | |
| group = ["symbol", "continuity_id"] if "continuity_id" in trades.columns else ["symbol"] | |
| joined = books.sort(["feature_cutoff_ts_ns", "symbol", "sequence_end"]).join_asof( | |
| trades.sort(["trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns", *group]), | |
| left_on="feature_cutoff_ts_ns", | |
| right_on="trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns", | |
| by=group, | |
| strategy="backward", | |
| allow_exact_matches=False, | |
| check_sortedness=False, | |
| ) | |
| return joined.with_columns( | |
| pl.col("_cum_signed").fill_null(0.0), | |
| pl.col("_cum_volume").fill_null(0.0), | |
| pl.col("_cum_count").fill_null(0), | |
| ) | |
| def _join_cancellation_history( | |
| features: pl.DataFrame, | |
| depth_deltas: pl.DataFrame | None, | |
| config: FeatureConfig, | |
| ) -> pl.DataFrame: | |
| if depth_deltas is None: | |
| return features | |
| if "venue" not in features.columns: | |
| raise ResearchDataError( | |
| "book observations require venue when cancellation features are requested" | |
| ) | |
| cancellation = build_cancellation_intensity_features( | |
| depth_deltas, | |
| windows=config.trade_windows, | |
| ) | |
| feature_columns = [ | |
| name | |
| for name in cancellation.columns | |
| if name.startswith("cancellation_deletes_w") | |
| or name.startswith("depth_updates_w") | |
| or name.startswith("cancellation_intensity_w") | |
| ] | |
| keyed = cancellation.select( | |
| "venue", | |
| "symbol", | |
| "continuity_id", | |
| pl.col("decision_sequence").alias("sequence_end"), | |
| pl.col("max_feature_source_ts_ns").alias("cancellation_feature_max_source_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("max_feature_source_sequence").alias("cancellation_feature_max_source_sequence"), | |
| "cancellation_observation_policy", | |
| "nonzero_reduction_classified_as_cancellation", | |
| *feature_columns, | |
| ) | |
| keys = ["venue", "symbol", "continuity_id", "sequence_end"] | |
| joined = features.join(keyed, on=keys, how="left", validate="1:1") | |
| missing = joined.filter(pl.col("cancellation_feature_max_source_ts_ns").is_null()) | |
| if not missing.is_empty(): | |
| raise ResearchDataError( | |
| "supplied depth deltas do not cover every research-eligible book observation" | |
| ) | |
| future = joined.filter( | |
| (pl.col("cancellation_feature_max_source_ts_ns") > pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns")) | |
| | ( | |
| (pl.col("cancellation_feature_max_source_ts_ns") == pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns")) | |
| & (pl.col("cancellation_feature_max_source_sequence") > pl.col("decision_sequence")) | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| if not future.is_empty(): | |
| raise TemporalLeakageError("cancellation feature lineage extends beyond its decision") | |
| return joined | |
| def build_l1_trade_features( | |
| book_observations: pl.DataFrame, | |
| trades: pl.DataFrame | None, | |
| config: FeatureConfig, | |
| ) -> pl.DataFrame: | |
| """Build causal event-time features from normalized L1 states and trades. | |
| Invalid book rows are not repaired or used as decisions. The caller keeps | |
| the normalized/quality tables as the audit record; this returned table is a | |
| research-eligible view containing valid states only. | |
| """ | |
| _assert_normalized_books(book_observations) | |
| if trades is not None and not trades.is_empty() and "continuity_id" not in trades.columns: | |
| multi_segment_symbols = ( | |
| book_observations.group_by("symbol") | |
| .agg(pl.col("continuity_id").n_unique().alias("_continuity_count")) | |
| .filter(pl.col("_continuity_count") > 1) | |
| .get_column("symbol") | |
| .to_list() | |
| ) | |
| if multi_segment_symbols: | |
| raise ResearchDataError( | |
| "trades require continuity_id when book history contains multiple continuity " | |
| f"segments for symbols: {sorted(str(value) for value in multi_segment_symbols)}" | |
| ) | |
| prepared_trades = _prepare_trades(trades) | |
| group = ["symbol", "continuity_id"] | |
| depth_expressions: list[pl.Expr] = [] | |
| for level in (5, 10): | |
| bid_column = f"depth_bid_{level}" | |
| ask_column = f"depth_ask_{level}" | |
| presence = ( | |
| bid_column in book_observations.columns, | |
| ask_column in book_observations.columns, | |
| ) | |
| if presence[0] != presence[1]: | |
| raise ResearchDataError( | |
| f"book observations must supply both {bid_column} and {ask_column}" | |
| ) | |
| if all(presence): | |
| total = pl.col(bid_column) + pl.col(ask_column) | |
| depth_expressions.extend( | |
| [ | |
| total.alias(f"depth_total_l{level}"), | |
| pl.when(total > 0) | |
| .then((pl.col(bid_column) - pl.col(ask_column)) / total) | |
| .otherwise(None) | |
| .alias(f"queue_imbalance_l{level}"), | |
| ] | |
| ) | |
| books = ( | |
| book_observations.filter(pl.col("is_valid")) | |
| .sort(["symbol", "continuity_id", "sequence_end"]) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| pl.col("event_ts_ns").alias("market_event_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("available_ts_ns").alias("decision_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("available_ts_ns").alias("feature_cutoff_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("sequence_end").alias("decision_sequence"), | |
| ((pl.col("best_bid") + pl.col("best_ask")) / 2.0).alias("mid_price"), | |
| (pl.col("best_ask") - pl.col("best_bid")).alias("spread"), | |
| (pl.col("bid_quantity") + pl.col("ask_quantity")).alias("depth_total_l1"), | |
| *depth_expressions, | |
| ) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| pl.col("best_bid").shift(1).over(group).alias("_previous_bid"), | |
| pl.col("best_ask").shift(1).over(group).alias("_previous_ask"), | |
| pl.col("bid_quantity").shift(1).over(group).alias("_previous_bid_quantity"), | |
| pl.col("ask_quantity").shift(1).over(group).alias("_previous_ask_quantity"), | |
| pl.col("mid_price").shift(1).over(group).alias("_previous_mid"), | |
| pl.col("spread").shift(1).over(group).alias("_previous_spread"), | |
| pl.col("depth_total_l1").shift(1).over(group).alias("_previous_depth_l1"), | |
| pl.col("sequence_end").cum_count().over(group).alias("history_events"), | |
| ) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| (10_000.0 * pl.col("spread") / pl.col("mid_price")).alias("spread_bps"), | |
| pl.when(pl.col("depth_total_l1") > 0) | |
| .then((pl.col("bid_quantity") - pl.col("ask_quantity")) / pl.col("depth_total_l1")) | |
| .otherwise(None) | |
| .alias("queue_imbalance_l1"), | |
| pl.when(pl.col("depth_total_l1") > 0) | |
| .then( | |
| ( | |
| pl.col("best_ask") * pl.col("bid_quantity") | |
| + pl.col("best_bid") * pl.col("ask_quantity") | |
| ) | |
| / pl.col("depth_total_l1") | |
| ) | |
| .otherwise(None) | |
| .alias("causal_microprice"), | |
| pl.when(pl.col("_previous_mid").is_not_null()) | |
| .then((pl.col("mid_price") / pl.col("_previous_mid")).log()) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| .alias("log_mid_return_1"), | |
| pl.when(pl.col("_previous_mid").is_not_null()) | |
| .then(10_000.0 * (pl.col("mid_price") / pl.col("_previous_mid") - 1.0)) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| .alias("realized_price_impact_bps_1"), | |
| pl.when(pl.col("_previous_spread").is_not_null()) | |
| .then(10_000.0 * (pl.col("_previous_spread") - pl.col("spread")) / pl.col("mid_price")) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| .alias("spread_recovery_bps_1"), | |
| pl.when(pl.col("_previous_depth_l1").is_not_null()) | |
| .then(pl.col("depth_total_l1") - pl.col("_previous_depth_l1")) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| .alias("depth_recovery_l1_1"), | |
| pl.when(pl.col("_previous_bid").is_null()) | |
| .then(0.0) | |
| .otherwise( | |
| pl.when(pl.col("best_bid") >= pl.col("_previous_bid")) | |
| .then(pl.col("bid_quantity")) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| - pl.when(pl.col("best_bid") <= pl.col("_previous_bid")) | |
| .then(pl.col("_previous_bid_quantity")) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| - pl.when(pl.col("best_ask") <= pl.col("_previous_ask")) | |
| .then(pl.col("ask_quantity")) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| + pl.when(pl.col("best_ask") >= pl.col("_previous_ask")) | |
| .then(pl.col("_previous_ask_quantity")) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| ) | |
| .alias("ofi_l1"), | |
| ) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| ( | |
| 10_000.0 * (pl.col("causal_microprice") - pl.col("mid_price")) / pl.col("mid_price") | |
| ).alias("microprice_deviation_bps"), | |
| pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns").first().over(group).alias("_segment_start_ts_ns"), | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| joined = _join_trade_history(books, prepared_trades).sort( | |
| ["symbol", "continuity_id", "sequence_end"] | |
| ) | |
| joined = joined.with_columns( | |
| pl.when(pl.col("trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns") >= pl.col("_segment_start_ts_ns")) | |
| .then(pl.col("trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns")) | |
| .otherwise(None) | |
| .alias("trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("_cum_signed").first().over(group).alias("_segment_base_signed"), | |
| pl.col("_cum_volume").first().over(group).alias("_segment_base_volume"), | |
| pl.col("_cum_count").first().over(group).alias("_segment_base_count"), | |
| ) | |
| rolling_expressions: list[pl.Expr] = [] | |
| trade_feature_windows = sorted(set((*config.trade_windows, config.intensity_window))) | |
| for window in trade_feature_windows: | |
| lag_signed = pl.col("_cum_signed").shift(window).over(group) | |
| lag_volume = pl.col("_cum_volume").shift(window).over(group) | |
| lag_count = pl.col("_cum_count").shift(window).over(group) | |
| lag_time = pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns").shift(window).over(group) | |
| signed = pl.col("_cum_signed") - pl.coalesce([lag_signed, pl.col("_segment_base_signed")]) | |
| volume = pl.col("_cum_volume") - pl.coalesce([lag_volume, pl.col("_segment_base_volume")]) | |
| count = pl.col("_cum_count") - pl.coalesce([lag_count, pl.col("_segment_base_count")]) | |
| elapsed_seconds = ( | |
| pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns") - pl.coalesce([lag_time, pl.col("_segment_start_ts_ns")]) | |
| ) / 1_000_000_000.0 | |
| rolling_expressions.extend( | |
| [ | |
| signed.alias(f"signed_trade_volume_w{window}"), | |
| volume.alias(f"trade_volume_w{window}"), | |
| count.cast(pl.Float64).alias(f"trade_count_w{window}"), | |
| pl.when(elapsed_seconds > 0) | |
| .then(count / elapsed_seconds) | |
| .otherwise(0.0) | |
| .cast(pl.Float64) | |
| .alias(f"trade_intensity_w{window}"), | |
| pl.col("ofi_l1") | |
| .rolling_sum(window_size=window, min_samples=1) | |
| .over(group) | |
| .alias(f"ofi_w{window}"), | |
| ] | |
| ) | |
| volatility_window = config.volatility_window | |
| rolling_expressions.append( | |
| pl.col("log_mid_return_1") | |
| .pow(2) | |
| .rolling_sum(window_size=volatility_window, min_samples=1) | |
| .over(group) | |
| .sqrt() | |
| .alias(f"realized_volatility_w{volatility_window}") | |
| ) | |
| warmup = max((*config.trade_windows, config.volatility_window, config.intensity_window)) | |
| return ( | |
| joined.with_columns(rolling_expressions) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| (pl.col("history_events") >= warmup).alias("feature_ready"), | |
| pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns").alias("max_feature_source_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("decision_sequence").alias("max_feature_source_sequence"), | |
| ) | |
| .drop( | |
| "_previous_bid", | |
| "_previous_ask", | |
| "_previous_bid_quantity", | |
| "_previous_ask_quantity", | |
| "_previous_mid", | |
| "_previous_spread", | |
| "_previous_depth_l1", | |
| "_segment_start_ts_ns", | |
| "_cum_signed", | |
| "_cum_volume", | |
| "_cum_count", | |
| "_segment_base_signed", | |
| "_segment_base_volume", | |
| "_segment_base_count", | |
| ) | |
| .sort(["decision_ts_ns", "symbol", "decision_sequence"]) | |
| ) | |
| def add_future_event_labels(frame: pl.DataFrame, horizon_events: int) -> pl.DataFrame: | |
| """Attach strictly subsequent mid-return/direction labels within each segment.""" | |
| if horizon_events < 1: | |
| raise ResearchDataError("label horizon must be at least one event") | |
| _require_columns( | |
| frame, | |
| frozenset( | |
| { | |
| "symbol", | |
| "continuity_id", | |
| "decision_ts_ns", | |
| "decision_sequence", | |
| "mid_price", | |
| } | |
| ), | |
| "feature frame", | |
| ) | |
| group = ["symbol", "continuity_id"] | |
| labeled = ( | |
| frame.sort(["symbol", "continuity_id", "decision_sequence"]) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| pl.col("mid_price").shift(-horizon_events).over(group).alias("_target_mid"), | |
| pl.col("decision_ts_ns").shift(-horizon_events).over(group).alias("_target_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("decision_sequence") | |
| .shift(-horizon_events) | |
| .over(group) | |
| .alias("_target_sequence"), | |
| pl.col("continuity_id") | |
| .shift(-horizon_events) | |
| .over(group) | |
| .alias("_target_continuity_id"), | |
| ) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| ( | |
| pl.col("_target_mid").is_null() | |
| | (pl.col("_target_sequence") <= pl.col("decision_sequence")) | |
| | ( | |
| (pl.col("_target_ts_ns") < pl.col("decision_ts_ns")) | |
| | ( | |
| (pl.col("_target_ts_ns") == pl.col("decision_ts_ns")) | |
| & (pl.col("_target_sequence") <= pl.col("decision_sequence")) | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| ).alias("right_censored") | |
| ) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| pl.when(~pl.col("right_censored")) | |
| .then((pl.col("_target_mid") / pl.col("mid_price")).log()) | |
| .otherwise(None) | |
| .alias("future_mid_return"), | |
| pl.when(~pl.col("right_censored")) | |
| .then(pl.col("_target_ts_ns")) | |
| .otherwise(None) | |
| .alias("label_information_end_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.when(~pl.col("right_censored")) | |
| .then(pl.col("_target_sequence")) | |
| .otherwise(None) | |
| .alias("label_information_end_sequence"), | |
| pl.when(~pl.col("right_censored")) | |
| .then(pl.col("_target_continuity_id")) | |
| .otherwise(None) | |
| .alias("label_continuity_id"), | |
| pl.lit(horizon_events, dtype=pl.Int64).alias("label_horizon_events"), | |
| pl.col("decision_ts_ns").alias("label_start_ts_ns"), | |
| pl.col("decision_sequence").alias("label_start_sequence"), | |
| ) | |
| .with_columns( | |
| pl.when(pl.col("future_mid_return").is_null()) | |
| .then(None) | |
| .when(pl.col("future_mid_return") > 0) | |
| .then(1) | |
| .when(pl.col("future_mid_return") < 0) | |
| .then(-1) | |
| .otherwise(0) | |
| .cast(pl.Int8) | |
| .alias("future_mid_direction"), | |
| pl.when(pl.col("future_mid_return").is_null()) | |
| .then(None) | |
| .otherwise((pl.col("future_mid_return") > 0).cast(pl.Int8)) | |
| .alias("future_mid_up"), | |
| ) | |
| .drop("_target_mid", "_target_ts_ns", "_target_sequence", "_target_continuity_id") | |
| .sort(["decision_ts_ns", "symbol", "decision_sequence"]) | |
| ) | |
| validate_temporal_contract(labeled) | |
| return labeled | |
| def build_research_frame( | |
| book_observations: pl.DataFrame, | |
| trades: pl.DataFrame | None, | |
| config: FeatureConfig, | |
| *, | |
| depth_deltas: pl.DataFrame | None = None, | |
| ) -> pl.DataFrame: | |
| """Build the complete causal feature/strictly-future-label event frame.""" | |
| features = build_research_features( | |
| book_observations, | |
| trades, | |
| config, | |
| depth_deltas=depth_deltas, | |
| ) | |
| return add_future_event_labels(features, config.label_horizon_events) | |
| def build_research_features( | |
| book_observations: pl.DataFrame, | |
| trades: pl.DataFrame | None, | |
| config: FeatureConfig, | |
| *, | |
| depth_deltas: pl.DataFrame | None = None, | |
| ) -> pl.DataFrame: | |
| """Build causal features without opening any future-label horizon. | |
| Separating this stage lets a caller attach several predeclared event- and | |
| clock-time labels to the exact same information set. Cancellation inputs | |
| remain continuity-local and are joined at the current observable update. | |
| """ | |
| features = build_l1_trade_features(book_observations, trades, config) | |
| return _join_cancellation_history(features, depth_deltas, config) | |
| def validate_temporal_contract(frame: pl.DataFrame) -> TemporalAudit: | |
| """Fail closed when feature lineage or labels violate event-time ordering.""" | |
| required = frozenset( | |
| { | |
| "symbol", | |
| "continuity_id", | |
| "decision_ts_ns", | |
| "decision_sequence", | |
| "feature_cutoff_ts_ns", | |
| "max_feature_source_ts_ns", | |
| "max_feature_source_sequence", | |
| "trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns", | |
| "right_censored", | |
| "future_mid_return", | |
| "future_mid_direction", | |
| "future_mid_up", | |
| "label_information_end_ts_ns", | |
| "label_information_end_sequence", | |
| "label_continuity_id", | |
| } | |
| ) | |
| _require_columns(frame, required, "research frame") | |
| future_feature = frame.filter( | |
| (pl.col("max_feature_source_ts_ns") > pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns")) | |
| | ( | |
| (pl.col("max_feature_source_ts_ns") == pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns")) | |
| & (pl.col("max_feature_source_sequence") > pl.col("decision_sequence")) | |
| ) | |
| | ( | |
| pl.col("trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns").is_not_null() | |
| & (pl.col("trade_feature_max_source_ts_ns") >= pl.col("decision_ts_ns")) | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| if not future_feature.is_empty(): | |
| raise TemporalLeakageError("feature lineage extends beyond its decision cutoff") | |
| if { | |
| "cancellation_feature_max_source_ts_ns", | |
| "cancellation_feature_max_source_sequence", | |
| }.issubset(frame.columns): | |
| future_cancellation = frame.filter( | |
| (pl.col("cancellation_feature_max_source_ts_ns") > pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns")) | |
| | ( | |
| (pl.col("cancellation_feature_max_source_ts_ns") == pl.col("feature_cutoff_ts_ns")) | |
| & (pl.col("cancellation_feature_max_source_sequence") > pl.col("decision_sequence")) | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| if not future_cancellation.is_empty(): | |
| raise TemporalLeakageError( | |
| "cancellation feature lineage extends beyond its decision cutoff" | |
| ) | |
| uncensored = ~pl.col("right_censored") | |
| invalid_label = frame.filter( | |
| ( | |
| uncensored | |
| & ( | |
| pl.col("label_information_end_ts_ns").is_null() | |
| | pl.col("label_information_end_sequence").is_null() | |
| | (pl.col("label_continuity_id") != pl.col("continuity_id")) | |
| | (pl.col("label_information_end_ts_ns") < pl.col("decision_ts_ns")) | |
| | ( | |
| (pl.col("label_information_end_ts_ns") == pl.col("decision_ts_ns")) | |
| & (pl.col("label_information_end_sequence") <= pl.col("decision_sequence")) | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| | ( | |
| pl.col("right_censored") | |
| & ( | |
| pl.col("future_mid_return").is_not_null() | |
| | pl.col("future_mid_direction").is_not_null() | |
| | pl.col("future_mid_up").is_not_null() | |
| | pl.col("label_information_end_ts_ns").is_not_null() | |
| | pl.col("label_information_end_sequence").is_not_null() | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| if not invalid_label.is_empty(): | |
| raise TemporalLeakageError("labels are not strictly future, gap-local, and censor-safe") | |
| censored_rows = frame.filter(pl.col("right_censored")).height | |
| return TemporalAudit( | |
| rows=frame.height, | |
| labeled_rows=frame.height - censored_rows, | |
| right_censored_rows=censored_rows, | |
| continuity_segments=frame.select("symbol", "continuity_id").unique().height, | |
| ) | |
| def model_feature_columns(frame: pl.DataFrame) -> tuple[str, ...]: | |
| """Return the explicit leakage-safe allowlist present in ``frame``.""" | |
| selected = [name for name in _STATIC_MODEL_FEATURES if name in frame.columns] | |
| selected.extend( | |
| name | |
| for name in frame.columns | |
| if name.startswith(_MODEL_FEATURE_PREFIXES) and name not in selected | |
| ) | |
| if not selected: | |
| raise ResearchDataError("research frame contains no recognized model features") | |
| return tuple(selected) | |
| __all__ = [ | |
| "ResearchDataError", | |
| "TemporalAudit", | |
| "TemporalLeakageError", | |
| "add_future_event_labels", | |
| "build_cancellation_intensity_features", | |
| "build_l1_trade_features", | |
| "build_research_features", | |
| "build_research_frame", | |
| "model_feature_columns", | |
| "validate_temporal_contract", | |
| ] | |