"""Command line: python -m emft run --data --out (or --synthetic).""" from __future__ import annotations import argparse import logging from pathlib import Path import pandas as pd from . import backtest, data, evaluate, features, report from .models import LEARNED, RULES, SCALED def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> None: ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(prog="emft") sub = ap.add_subparsers(dest="cmd", required=True) r = sub.add_parser("run", help="build features, backtest, evaluate, report") src = r.add_mutually_exclusive_group(required=True) src.add_argument("--data", help="JKP CSV file, directory, glob or .zip") src.add_argument("--synthetic", action="store_true", help="known-truth synthetic panel") r.add_argument("--out", default="reports/latest") r.add_argument("--oos-start", type=int, default=2000) r.add_argument("--test-region", default="EM", choices=["EM", "DM"]) r.add_argument("--models", default="ols,enet,gbrt,hist_mean,shrink_mean,fmom", help="comma list; add nn for the neural-net ensemble (slow on the full panel)") r.add_argument("--cost-bps", type=float, default=20.0) r.add_argument("--min-stocks", type=int, default=5) r.add_argument("--weighting", default="vw_cap", choices=["vw_cap", "vw", "ew"]) r.add_argument("--kappa", type=float, default=120.0, help="prior weight (months) in the shrinkage mean") r.add_argument("--market-history", action="store_true", help="time-varying MSCI classification from config/market_history.yaml") r.add_argument("--macro", help="directory of FRED CSVs; adds U.S. state variables as predictors") r.add_argument("--sample-start", help="drop feature months before YYYY-MM (to match --macro samples)") r.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=0) c = sub.add_parser("coverage", help="print country coverage of a JKP file") c.add_argument("--data", required=True) args = ap.parse_args(argv) logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(levelname)s %(message)s") if args.cmd == "coverage": panel = data.load_jkp(args.data) print(data.coverage(panel).to_string(index=False)) return if args.synthetic: panel, _ = data.synthetic_panel(seed=args.seed) provenance = "SYNTHETIC" oos_start = 2005 if args.oos_start < 2005 else args.oos_start else: panel = data.load_jkp(args.data, weighting=args.weighting, min_stocks=args.min_stocks) if args.market_history: panel = data.apply_market_history(panel) provenance = "JKP" oos_start = args.oos_start built = features.build_features(panel, kappa=args.kappa) predictors = tuple(features.FEATURES) if args.macro: built = built.merge(data.load_macro(args.macro), left_on="month", right_index=True, how="left") predictors += tuple(data.MACRO_FEATURES) if args.sample_start: built = built[built["month"] >= pd.Period(args.sample_start, freq="M")] feats = features.model_ready(built, extra=predictors[len(features.FEATURES):]) models = tuple(m.strip() for m in args.models.split(",") if m.strip()) preds = backtest.run_backtest(feats, test_region=args.test_region, models=models, oos_start=oos_start, seed=args.seed, features=predictors) out = Path(args.out) out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) preds.to_parquet(out / "predictions.parquet", index=False) r2 = evaluate.r2_table(preds) learned = r2[r2["model"].isin(LEARNED + SCALED)] top = learned.iloc[0] if not learned.empty else r2.iloc[0] r2c = evaluate.r2_by_country(preds, top["model"], top["scope"]) monthly = evaluate.portfolio_returns(preds, cost_bps=args.cost_bps) port = evaluate.portfolio_table(monthly) report.write_report( out, provenance, data.coverage(panel), r2, r2c, port, monthly, {"test_region": args.test_region, "oos_start": oos_start, "cost_bps": args.cost_bps, "models": models, "weighting": args.weighting, "min_stocks": args.min_stocks, "kappa": args.kappa, "market_history": args.market_history, "macro": args.macro, "sample_start": args.sample_start, "data": args.data or "synthetic", "seed": args.seed}, ) print(r2.to_string(index=False)) print() print(port.to_string(index=False)) if __name__ == "__main__": main()