"""Purged expanding walk-forward splits for overlapping event labels.""" from __future__ import annotations from dataclasses import dataclass from typing import cast import numpy as np import polars as pl from numpy.typing import NDArray from microstructure.config import EvaluationConfig class SplitError(ValueError): """Raised when a leakage-safe walk-forward plan cannot be constructed.""" IndexArray = NDArray[np.int64] @dataclass(frozen=True, slots=True) class PurgedFold: """One expanding training window and its strictly later validation window.""" fold_id: int train_indices: IndexArray validation_indices: IndexArray train_start_ts_ns: int train_end_ts_ns: int validation_start_ts_ns: int validation_end_ts_ns: int purged_rows: int embargoed_time_buckets: int @dataclass(frozen=True, slots=True) class WalkForwardPlan: """Development folds plus a frozen, never-used-for-selection final test.""" folds: tuple[PurgedFold, ...] final_train_indices: IndexArray test_indices: IndexArray test_start_ts_ns: int test_end_ts_ns: int decision_time_count: int _REQUIRED = frozenset( { "decision_ts_ns", "label_information_end_ts_ns", "right_censored", } ) def _require_contract(frame: pl.DataFrame) -> None: missing = sorted(_REQUIRED.difference(frame.columns)) if missing: raise SplitError(f"research frame is missing split columns: {missing}") if frame.is_empty(): raise SplitError("research frame must not be empty") def _indices(frame: pl.DataFrame, condition: pl.Expr) -> IndexArray: return frame.filter(condition).get_column("_research_row_id").to_numpy().astype(np.int64) def _eligible(frame: pl.DataFrame) -> pl.Expr: ready = pl.col("feature_ready") if "feature_ready" in frame.columns else pl.lit(True) return (~pl.col("right_censored")) & ready def _purged_training_indices( indexed: pl.DataFrame, *, validation_start_ts_ns: int, decision_cutoff_ts_ns: int, ) -> tuple[IndexArray, int]: candidates = indexed.filter( _eligible(indexed) & (pl.col("decision_ts_ns") < validation_start_ts_ns) ) safe = candidates.filter( (pl.col("decision_ts_ns") < decision_cutoff_ts_ns) & (pl.col("label_information_end_ts_ns") < validation_start_ts_ns) ) return ( safe.get_column("_research_row_id").to_numpy().astype(np.int64), candidates.height - safe.height, ) def expanding_walk_forward_splits( frame: pl.DataFrame, config: EvaluationConfig, ) -> WalkForwardPlan: """Create global-time expanding folds and a frozen final-test period. Configuration counts refer to unique decision-time buckets, not physical rows, so instruments sharing a timestamp always remain in the same split. Candidate training decisions are separated by ``embargo_events`` buckets; label intervals ending at or beyond the evaluation start are purged as an independent second guard. Development labels ending at or beyond the final test start are also excluded so model selection cannot observe test outcomes. """ _require_contract(frame) if config.min_train_events < 1: raise SplitError("min_train_events must be positive") if config.validation_events < 1 or config.test_events < 1: raise SplitError("validation_events and test_events must be positive") if config.step_events < 1 or config.embargo_events < 0: raise SplitError("step_events must be positive and embargo_events nonnegative") indexed = frame.with_row_index("_research_row_id") decision_times = sorted(indexed.get_column("decision_ts_ns").unique().to_list()) required_times = config.min_train_events + config.validation_events + config.test_events if len(decision_times) < required_times: raise SplitError( f"need at least {required_times} decision-time buckets, got {len(decision_times)}" ) development_end = len(decision_times) - config.test_events test_start_position = development_end test_start = int(decision_times[test_start_position]) folds: list[PurgedFold] = [] validation_start_position = config.min_train_events while validation_start_position + config.validation_events <= development_end: validation_end_position = validation_start_position + config.validation_events validation_start = int(decision_times[validation_start_position]) validation_end = int(decision_times[validation_end_position - 1]) decision_cut_position = max(0, validation_start_position - config.embargo_events) decision_cutoff = int(decision_times[decision_cut_position]) train_indices, purged_rows = _purged_training_indices( indexed, validation_start_ts_ns=validation_start, decision_cutoff_ts_ns=decision_cutoff, ) validation_indices = _indices( indexed, _eligible(indexed) & (pl.col("decision_ts_ns") >= validation_start) & (pl.col("decision_ts_ns") <= validation_end) & (pl.col("label_information_end_ts_ns") < test_start), ) if train_indices.size == 0: raise SplitError(f"fold {len(folds)} has no training rows after purge and embargo") if validation_indices.size == 0: raise SplitError(f"fold {len(folds)} has no labeled validation rows") train_times = indexed.filter(pl.col("_research_row_id").is_in(train_indices)).get_column( "decision_ts_ns" ) folds.append( PurgedFold( fold_id=len(folds), train_indices=train_indices, validation_indices=validation_indices, train_start_ts_ns=cast(int, train_times.min()), train_end_ts_ns=cast(int, train_times.max()), validation_start_ts_ns=validation_start, validation_end_ts_ns=validation_end, purged_rows=purged_rows, embargoed_time_buckets=min(config.embargo_events, validation_start_position), ) ) validation_start_position += config.step_events if not folds: raise SplitError("configuration produced no development folds") test_end = int(decision_times[-1]) final_decision_cut_position = max(0, test_start_position - config.embargo_events) final_decision_cutoff = int(decision_times[final_decision_cut_position]) final_train_indices, _ = _purged_training_indices( indexed, validation_start_ts_ns=test_start, decision_cutoff_ts_ns=final_decision_cutoff, ) test_indices = _indices( indexed, _eligible(indexed) & (pl.col("decision_ts_ns") >= test_start) & (pl.col("decision_ts_ns") <= test_end), ) if final_train_indices.size == 0 or test_indices.size == 0: raise SplitError("final train or labeled test set is empty after temporal filtering") return WalkForwardPlan( folds=tuple(folds), final_train_indices=final_train_indices, test_indices=test_indices, test_start_ts_ns=test_start, test_end_ts_ns=test_end, decision_time_count=len(decision_times), ) __all__ = [ "PurgedFold", "SplitError", "WalkForwardPlan", "expanding_walk_forward_splits", ]