from __future__ import annotations from datetime import datetime import polars as pl from microstructure.research.l2_analysis import build_l2_descriptive_analysis SECOND = 1_000_000_000 DATES = ( ("2026-08-10", "train"), ("2026-08-11", "validation"), ("2026-08-12", "primary_test"), ("2026-08-13", "replication_test"), ) ENDPOINTS = ( ("event_20", "event", 20, "events"), ("event_100", "event", 100, "events"), ("clock_1000ms", "clock", 1_000, "milliseconds"), ("clock_5000ms", "clock", 5_000, "milliseconds"), ) FEATURES = ( "spread_bps", "depth_total_l1", "ofi_w20", "realized_volatility_w100", ) def _frame( study_date: str, study_role: str, symbol: str, endpoint_name: str, domain: str, horizon: int, unit: str, ) -> pl.DataFrame: start = int(datetime.fromisoformat(f"{study_date}T14:00:00+00:00").timestamp()) * SECOND continuity = f"{study_date}::{symbol}::observed-0000" rows: list[dict[str, object]] = [] for sequence in range(140): decision = start + sequence * SECOND censored = sequence >= 120 label_end = decision + (horizon * SECOND if domain == "event" else horizon * 1_000_000) ofi = float((sequence % 9) - 4) future_return = ofi * 1e-5 + (0.25e-5 if symbol == "BTCUSDT" else -0.1e-5) bid_quantity = 1.0 if sequence % 19 == 0 else 5.0 + (sequence % 7) * 0.2 ask_quantity = 1.2 if sequence % 23 == 0 else 4.5 + (sequence % 5) * 0.2 spread = 8.0 if sequence % 17 == 0 else 1.0 + (sequence % 3) * 0.1 rows.append( { "study_date": study_date, "study_role": study_role, "endpoint_name": endpoint_name, "endpoint_domain": domain, "endpoint_horizon_value": horizon, "endpoint_horizon_unit": unit, "symbol": symbol, "continuity_id": continuity, "observed_interval_id": continuity, "observed_interval_start_ns": start, "observed_interval_end_ns_exclusive": start + 3_600 * SECOND, "decision_ts_ns": decision, "decision_sequence": sequence, "feature_cutoff_ts_ns": decision, "max_feature_source_ts_ns": decision, "max_feature_source_sequence": sequence, "feature_continuity_id": continuity, "label_start_ts_ns": decision, "label_start_sequence": sequence, "right_censored": censored, "future_mid_return": None if censored else future_return, "future_mid_up": None if censored else int(future_return > 0), "label_information_end_ts_ns": None if censored else label_end, "label_information_end_sequence": None if censored else sequence + horizon, "label_continuity_id": None if censored else continuity, "ofi_signed_future_mid_markout_bps": ( None if censored else (1.0 if ofi > 0 else -1.0 if ofi < 0 else 0.0) * future_return * 10_000.0 ), "signed_markout_side_source": ( "ofi_w20" if endpoint_name in {"event_20", "clock_1000ms"} else "ofi_w100" ), "sample_id": f"{study_date}::{symbol}::{endpoint_name}::{sequence}", "mid_price": 100.0 + sequence * 0.01, "bid_quantity": bid_quantity, "ask_quantity": ask_quantity, "spread_bps": spread, "depth_total_l1": bid_quantity + ask_quantity, "depth_total_l5": bid_quantity + ask_quantity + 10.0, "depth_total_l10": bid_quantity + ask_quantity + 20.0, "queue_imbalance_l1": (bid_quantity - ask_quantity) / (bid_quantity + ask_quantity), "realized_volatility_w100": 0.001 + (sequence % 13) * 0.0001, "ofi_w20": ofi, "ofi_w100": ofi * 0.8, "volatility_regime": ("low" if sequence % 3 == 0 else "high"), "liquidity_regime": ("liquid" if sequence % 4 else "stressed"), } ) return pl.DataFrame(rows, infer_schema_length=None) def _all_frames() -> list[pl.DataFrame]: return [ _frame(study_date, role, symbol, name, domain, horizon, unit) for study_date, role in DATES for symbol in ("BTCUSDT", "ETHUSDT") for name, domain, horizon, unit in ENDPOINTS ] def test_l2_descriptive_outputs_are_date_symbol_endpoint_explicit() -> None: result = build_l2_descriptive_analysis( _all_frames(), feature_columns=FEATURES, stability_bins=5 ) assert result.intraday_liquidity.height == 8 * 3 assert result.ofi_return_association.height == 32 assert result.signal_half_life.height == 32 assert result.liquidity_recovery.height == 16 assert result.regime_diagnostics.height > 32 assert result.feature_stability.height == 2 * 2 * 4 * len(FEATURES) assert result.cross_instrument_stability.height == 16 assert result.cross_instrument_stability.get_column("cross_instrument_pooling").not_().all() assert set(result.ofi_return_association.get_column("interpretation").unique()) == { "descriptive_book_flow_markout_not_trade_impact" } def test_shock_thresholds_and_stability_reference_are_development_only() -> None: frames = _all_frames() original = build_l2_descriptive_analysis(frames, feature_columns=FEATURES, stability_bins=5) mutated = [ frame.with_columns( pl.when(pl.col("study_role").is_in(["primary_test", "replication_test"])) .then(pl.col("spread_bps") * 100.0) .otherwise(pl.col("spread_bps")) .alias("spread_bps") ) for frame in frames ] changed = build_l2_descriptive_analysis(mutated, feature_columns=FEATURES, stability_bins=5) assert ( original.liquidity_recovery.select( "symbol", "train_spread_q95", "train_executable_depth_q05" ) .unique() .sort("symbol") .equals( changed.liquidity_recovery.select( "symbol", "train_spread_q95", "train_executable_depth_q05" ) .unique() .sort("symbol") ) ) assert set(changed.feature_stability.get_column("reference_scope").unique()) == { "train_plus_validation_only" }