from __future__ import annotations import math from datetime import UTC, datetime import polars as pl import pytest from microstructure.research.l2_multidate import ( L2EndpointSpec, L2ObservedInterval, L2ResearchError, apply_l2_regimes, build_l2_endpoint_frames, dependency_block_expression, fit_l2_regime_thresholds, l2_model_feature_columns, validate_l2_endpoint_frame, ) MILLISECOND = 1_000_000 SECOND = 1_000_000_000 DATE = "2026-08-08" DATE_START = int(datetime(2026, 8, 8, tzinfo=UTC).timestamp()) * SECOND def _endpoints() -> tuple[L2EndpointSpec, ...]: return ( L2EndpointSpec("event_20", "event", 20, "events", 40, None, 20), L2EndpointSpec("event_100", "event", 100, "events", 200, None, 100), L2EndpointSpec("clock_1000ms", "clock", 1_000, "milliseconds", None, 2_000, 20), L2EndpointSpec("clock_5000ms", "clock", 5_000, "milliseconds", None, 10_000, 100), ) def _inputs() -> tuple[pl.DataFrame, pl.DataFrame, tuple[L2ObservedInterval, ...]]: times = [DATE_START + index * 100 * MILLISECOND for index in range(300)] second_start = DATE_START + 60 * SECOND times.extend(second_start + index * 100 * MILLISECOND for index in range(300)) sequences = list(range(1, len(times) + 1)) midpoint = [100.0 + index * 0.001 + (index // 17) * 0.002 for index in sequences] bid = [value - 0.01 for value in midpoint] ask = [value + 0.01 for value in midpoint] bid_quantity = [4.0 + (index % 11) * 0.1 for index in sequences] ask_quantity = [3.0 + (index % 7) * 0.1 for index in sequences] books = pl.DataFrame( { "venue": ["binance_spot"] * len(times), "symbol": ["BTCUSDT"] * len(times), "event_ts_ns": times, "available_ts_ns": times, "continuity_id": ["capture-a"] * len(times), "sequence_end": sequences, "is_valid": [True] * len(times), "best_bid": bid, "best_ask": ask, "bid_quantity": bid_quantity, "ask_quantity": ask_quantity, "depth_bid_5": [value + 8.0 for value in bid_quantity], "depth_ask_5": [value + 7.0 for value in ask_quantity], "depth_bid_10": [value + 18.0 for value in bid_quantity], "depth_ask_10": [value + 17.0 for value in ask_quantity], "tick_size": [0.01] * len(times), "lot_size": [0.00001] * len(times), } ) deltas = pl.DataFrame( { "venue": ["binance_spot"] * len(times), "symbol": ["BTCUSDT"] * len(times), "event_ts_ns": times, "available_ts_ns": times, "continuity_id": ["capture-a"] * len(times), "first_update_id": sequences, "last_update_id": sequences, "bids": [ [ { "price_ticks": 10_000 + index, "quantity_lots": 0 if index % 13 == 0 else 10, } ] for index in sequences ], "asks": [[{"price_ticks": 10_002 + index, "quantity_lots": 10}] for index in sequences], } ) intervals = ( L2ObservedInterval("capture-a", DATE_START, DATE_START + 30 * SECOND), L2ObservedInterval("capture-a", second_start, second_start + 30 * SECOND), ) return books, deltas, intervals def _frames( *, books: pl.DataFrame | None = None, deltas: pl.DataFrame | None = None ) -> dict[str, pl.DataFrame]: default_books, default_deltas, intervals = _inputs() return dict( build_l2_endpoint_frames( default_books if books is None else books, default_deltas if deltas is None else deltas, intervals, study_date=DATE, study_role="train", feature_windows=(20, 100), volatility_window=100, clock_max_state_age_ms=500, endpoints=_endpoints(), ) ) def _tied_target_inputs() -> tuple[ pl.DataFrame, pl.DataFrame, tuple[L2ObservedInterval, ...], int, int, int, int, ]: books, deltas, intervals = _inputs() decision_ts = DATE_START + 20 * SECOND target_ts = decision_ts + SECOND target_sequences = ( books.filter(pl.col("available_ts_ns") == target_ts).get_column("sequence_end").to_list() ) assert len(target_sequences) == 1 lower_sequence = int(target_sequences[0]) higher_sequence = lower_sequence + 1 books = books.with_columns( pl.when(pl.col("sequence_end") == higher_sequence) .then(pl.lit(target_ts)) .otherwise(pl.col("event_ts_ns")) .alias("event_ts_ns"), pl.when(pl.col("sequence_end") == higher_sequence) .then(pl.lit(target_ts)) .otherwise(pl.col("available_ts_ns")) .alias("available_ts_ns"), ) deltas = deltas.with_columns( pl.when(pl.col("last_update_id") == higher_sequence) .then(pl.lit(target_ts)) .otherwise(pl.col("event_ts_ns")) .alias("event_ts_ns"), pl.when(pl.col("last_update_id") == higher_sequence) .then(pl.lit(target_ts)) .otherwise(pl.col("available_ts_ns")) .alias("available_ts_ns"), ) return ( books, deltas, intervals, decision_ts, target_ts, lower_sequence, higher_sequence, ) def _tied_target_frames() -> dict[str, pl.DataFrame]: books, deltas, intervals, *_ = _tied_target_inputs() endpoints = ( L2EndpointSpec("event_1", "event", 1, "events", 1, None, 1), L2EndpointSpec("clock_1000ms", "clock", 1_000, "milliseconds", None, 2_000, 1), ) return dict( build_l2_endpoint_frames( books, deltas, intervals, study_date=DATE, study_role="train", feature_windows=(1,), volatility_window=1, clock_max_state_age_ms=500, endpoints=endpoints, ) ) def test_four_endpoints_are_interval_local_and_exclude_trade_only_features() -> None: frames = _frames() assert set(frames) == {"event_20", "event_100", "clock_1000ms", "clock_5000ms"} event = frames["event_20"] assert event.get_column("continuity_id").n_unique() == 2 assert event.get_column("capture_continuity_id").unique().to_list() == ["capture-a"] assert event.group_by("continuity_id").len().get_column("len").to_list() == [300, 300] assert event.group_by("continuity_id").agg( pl.col("right_censored").sum().alias("censored") ).get_column("censored").to_list() == [20, 20] regime = fit_l2_regime_thresholds( event, lower_quantile=1.0 / 3.0, upper_quantile=2.0 / 3.0, volatility_column="realized_volatility_w100", ) modeled = apply_l2_regimes(event, regime) features = l2_model_feature_columns(modeled, windows=(20, 100)) assert "depth_total_l10" in features assert "cancellation_intensity_w100" in features assert "volatility_regime_high" in features assert not any("trade_" in name for name in features) def test_exact_clock_target_uses_last_known_state_and_never_looks_forward() -> None: books, deltas, _ = _inputs() decision_ts = DATE_START + 20 * SECOND target_ts = decision_ts + SECOND target_sequence = int( books.filter(pl.col("available_ts_ns") == target_ts).get_column("sequence_end")[0] ) prior_mid = float( books.filter(pl.col("available_ts_ns") == target_ts - 100 * MILLISECOND).get_column( "best_bid" )[0] + 0.01 ) books_without_exact_target = books.filter(pl.col("available_ts_ns") != target_ts) frame = _frames(books=books_without_exact_target, deltas=deltas)["clock_1000ms"] row = frame.filter(pl.col("decision_ts_ns") == decision_ts).row(0, named=True) assert row["right_censored"] is False assert row["label_information_end_ts_ns"] == target_ts assert row["label_information_end_sequence"] == target_sequence - 1 assert row["clock_target_state_age_ns"] == 100 * MILLISECOND current_mid = float(row["mid_price"]) assert row["future_mid_return"] == pytest.approx(math.log(prior_mid / current_mid)) def test_tied_timestamp_event_label_uses_lexicographic_future_order() -> None: *_, target_ts, lower_sequence, higher_sequence = _tied_target_inputs() frame = _tied_target_frames()["event_1"] row = frame.filter(pl.col("decision_sequence") == lower_sequence).row(0, named=True) assert row["decision_ts_ns"] == target_ts assert row["right_censored"] is False assert row["label_information_end_ts_ns"] == target_ts assert row["label_information_end_sequence"] == higher_sequence for invalid_sequence in (lower_sequence, lower_sequence - 1): corrupted = frame.with_columns( pl.when(pl.col("decision_sequence") == lower_sequence) .then(pl.lit(invalid_sequence)) .otherwise(pl.col("label_information_end_sequence")) .alias("label_information_end_sequence") ) with pytest.raises(L2ResearchError, match="strictly future"): validate_l2_endpoint_frame(corrupted) def test_exact_clock_target_tie_selects_greatest_observable_sequence() -> None: books, _, _, decision_ts, target_ts, _, higher_sequence = _tied_target_inputs() frame = _tied_target_frames()["clock_1000ms"] row = frame.filter(pl.col("decision_ts_ns") == decision_ts).row(0, named=True) expected_mid = float( ( books.filter(pl.col("sequence_end") == higher_sequence).get_column("best_bid")[0] + books.filter(pl.col("sequence_end") == higher_sequence).get_column("best_ask")[0] ) / 2.0 ) assert row["right_censored"] is False assert row["label_information_end_ts_ns"] == target_ts assert row["label_information_end_sequence"] == higher_sequence assert row["clock_target_state_age_ns"] == 0 assert row["future_mid_return"] == pytest.approx(math.log(expected_mid / row["mid_price"])) def test_same_timestamp_higher_sequence_mutation_cannot_change_past_features() -> None: books, deltas, intervals, _, target_ts, lower_sequence, higher_sequence = _tied_target_inputs() endpoint = L2EndpointSpec("event_1", "event", 1, "events", 1, None, 1) def build(candidate: pl.DataFrame) -> pl.DataFrame: return build_l2_endpoint_frames( candidate, deltas, intervals, study_date=DATE, study_role="train", feature_windows=(1,), volatility_window=1, clock_max_state_age_ms=500, endpoints=(endpoint,), )["event_1"] original = build(books) mutated = build( books.with_columns( pl.when(pl.col("sequence_end") == higher_sequence) .then(pl.col("best_bid") * 3.0) .otherwise(pl.col("best_bid")) .alias("best_bid"), pl.when(pl.col("sequence_end") == higher_sequence) .then(pl.col("best_ask") * 3.0) .otherwise(pl.col("best_ask")) .alias("best_ask"), ) ) causal_prefix = (pl.col("decision_ts_ns") < target_ts) | ( (pl.col("decision_ts_ns") == target_ts) & (pl.col("decision_sequence") <= lower_sequence) ) feature_columns = [ "sample_id", "mid_price", "spread_bps", "ofi_w1", "realized_volatility_w1", "max_feature_source_ts_ns", "max_feature_source_sequence", ] assert ( original.filter(causal_prefix) .select(feature_columns) .equals(mutated.filter(causal_prefix).select(feature_columns)) ) def test_clock_target_outside_interval_or_too_stale_is_censored() -> None: books, deltas, _ = _inputs() near_end = DATE_START + 27 * SECOND five_second = _frames(books=books, deltas=deltas)["clock_5000ms"] assert five_second.filter(pl.col("decision_ts_ns") == near_end).get_column("right_censored")[0] decision_ts = DATE_START + 20 * SECOND target_ts = decision_ts + SECOND stale_books = books.filter( (pl.col("available_ts_ns") <= target_ts - 600 * MILLISECOND) | (pl.col("available_ts_ns") > target_ts) ) stale = _frames(books=stale_books, deltas=deltas)["clock_1000ms"] row = stale.filter(pl.col("decision_ts_ns") == decision_ts).row(0, named=True) assert row["right_censored"] is True assert row["future_mid_return"] is None assert row["label_information_end_ts_ns"] is None def test_future_price_mutation_cannot_change_past_l2_features() -> None: books, deltas, _ = _inputs() cutoff = DATE_START + 20 * SECOND original = _frames(books=books, deltas=deltas)["event_20"] mutated_books = books.with_columns( pl.when(pl.col("available_ts_ns") > cutoff) .then(pl.col("best_bid") * 3.0) .otherwise(pl.col("best_bid")) .alias("best_bid"), pl.when(pl.col("available_ts_ns") > cutoff) .then(pl.col("best_ask") * 3.0) .otherwise(pl.col("best_ask")) .alias("best_ask"), ) mutated = _frames(books=mutated_books, deltas=deltas)["event_20"] feature_columns = [ "spread_bps", "depth_total_l1", "queue_imbalance_l1", "microprice_deviation_bps", "ofi_w20", "cancellation_intensity_w20", "realized_volatility_w100", "max_feature_source_ts_ns", ] assert ( original.filter(pl.col("decision_ts_ns") <= cutoff) .select(feature_columns) .equals(mutated.filter(pl.col("decision_ts_ns") <= cutoff).select(feature_columns)) ) def test_train_regimes_reject_validation_fit_and_blocks_are_deterministic() -> None: event = _frames()["event_20"] with pytest.raises(L2ResearchError, match="train session"): fit_l2_regime_thresholds( event.with_columns(pl.lit("validation").alias("study_role")), lower_quantile=1.0 / 3.0, upper_quantile=2.0 / 3.0, volatility_column="realized_volatility_w100", ) blocked = event.with_columns(dependency_block_expression(_endpoints()[0])) assert blocked.get_column("bootstrap_block").null_count() == 0 assert blocked.select("sample_id", "bootstrap_block").equals( event.with_columns(dependency_block_expression(_endpoints()[0])).select( "sample_id", "bootstrap_block" ) ) def test_temporal_validator_rejects_label_crossing_observed_interval() -> None: frame = _frames()["event_20"] row_id = str(frame.filter(~pl.col("right_censored")).get_column("sample_id")[0]) corrupted = frame.with_columns( pl.when(pl.col("sample_id") == row_id) .then(pl.col("observed_interval_end_ns_exclusive")) .otherwise(pl.col("label_information_end_ts_ns")) .alias("label_information_end_ts_ns") ) with pytest.raises(L2ResearchError, match="interval-local"): validate_l2_endpoint_frame(corrupted) def test_temporal_validator_rejects_same_timestamp_future_feature_sequence() -> None: frame = _tied_target_frames()["event_1"] *_, lower_sequence, _ = _tied_target_inputs() corrupted = frame.with_columns( pl.when(pl.col("decision_sequence") == lower_sequence) .then(pl.col("decision_sequence") + 1) .otherwise(pl.col("max_feature_source_sequence")) .alias("max_feature_source_sequence") ) with pytest.raises(L2ResearchError, match="base timing"): validate_l2_endpoint_frame(corrupted)