from __future__ import annotations import math import polars as pl import pytest from microstructure.research.labels import ( AdverseSelectionSpec, ClockTimeLabelSpec, LimitFillAssumptions, add_event_time_price_impact_labels, build_clock_time_mid_labels, build_clock_time_price_impact_labels, build_hypothetical_limit_fill_labels, build_post_fill_adverse_selection_labels, ) SECOND = 1_000_000_000 def _clock_books() -> pl.DataFrame: return pl.DataFrame( { "sample_id": ["a0", "a1", "a3", "a6", "b7", "b8", "b9"], "symbol": ["BTCUSDT"] * 7, "continuity_id": ["a", "a", "a", "a", "b", "b", "b"], "decision_ts_ns": [value * SECOND for value in (0, 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9)], "decision_sequence": [1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 11, 12], "mid_price": [100.0, 101.0, 103.0, 106.0, 200.0, 201.0, 202.0], "trade_sign": [1, -1, 1, -1, 1, -1, 1], "is_valid": [True] * 7, } ) def test_clock_time_labels_use_first_later_state_and_do_not_cross_gaps() -> None: labels = build_clock_time_mid_labels( _clock_books(), ClockTimeLabelSpec(horizons_ns=(2 * SECOND,), max_target_staleness_ns=SECOND), ) at_zero = labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a0").row(0, named=True) assert at_zero["clock_target_ts_ns"] == 2 * SECOND assert at_zero["clock_label_information_end_ts_ns"] == 3 * SECOND assert at_zero["clock_observed_target_staleness_ns"] == SECOND assert at_zero["clock_future_mid_return"] == pytest.approx(math.log(103.0 / 100.0)) assert at_zero["clock_future_mid_direction"] == 1 assert at_zero["clock_label_is_descriptive"] is True # Segment B has observations after t=6, but they are not valid targets for A. at_six = labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a6").row(0, named=True) assert at_six["clock_right_censored"] is True assert at_six["clock_censor_reason"] == "no_same_segment_future_state" assert at_six["clock_future_mid_return"] is None assert at_six["clock_label_information_end_ts_ns"] is None def test_clock_time_labels_preserve_exact_future_book_identity_when_requested() -> None: labels = build_clock_time_mid_labels( _clock_books(), ClockTimeLabelSpec(horizons_ns=(2 * SECOND,), max_target_staleness_ns=SECOND), book_identity_column="decision_sequence", ) at_zero = labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a0").row(0, named=True) assert at_zero["clock_label_information_end_ts_ns"] == 3 * SECOND assert at_zero["clock_label_information_end_identity"] == 3 at_six = labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a6").row(0, named=True) assert at_six["clock_right_censored"] is True assert at_six["clock_label_information_end_identity"] is None def test_clock_price_impact_is_side_signed() -> None: decisions = _clock_books().filter(pl.col("sample_id").is_in(["a0", "a1"])) labels = build_clock_time_price_impact_labels( decisions, ClockTimeLabelSpec(horizons_ns=(2 * SECOND,)), book_states=_clock_books(), ) buy = labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a0").row(0, named=True) sell = labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a1").row(0, named=True) assert buy["clock_signed_price_impact_bps"] == pytest.approx(10_000.0 * math.log(103.0 / 100.0)) assert sell["clock_signed_price_impact_bps"] == pytest.approx( -10_000.0 * math.log(103.0 / 101.0) ) assert labels.get_column("clock_label_kind").unique().to_list() == [ "clock_time_signed_price_impact" ] def test_event_time_price_impact_preserves_future_information_end() -> None: frame = pl.DataFrame( { "trade_side": [1, -1, 1], "future_mid_return": [0.01, 0.02, None], "label_information_end_ts_ns": [20, 21, None], "right_censored": [False, False, True], "label_horizon_events": [2, 2, 2], } ) labeled = add_event_time_price_impact_labels(frame, side_column="trade_side") assert labeled["event_time_signed_price_impact_bps"].to_list() == [100.0, -200.0, None] assert labeled["event_impact_label_information_end_ts_ns"].to_list() == [20, 21, None] assert labeled["event_impact_right_censored"].to_list() == [False, False, True] def _limit_books() -> pl.DataFrame: return pl.DataFrame( { "sample_id": [f"a{index}" for index in range(5)], "symbol": ["BTCUSDT"] * 5, "continuity_id": ["a"] * 5, "decision_ts_ns": [index * SECOND for index in range(5)], "decision_sequence": list(range(1, 6)), "best_bid": [100.0] * 5, "best_ask": [102.0] * 5, "bid_quantity": [10.0] * 5, "ask_quantity": [10.0] * 5, "is_valid": [True] * 5, } ) def _limit_trades() -> pl.DataFrame: return pl.DataFrame( { "symbol": ["BTCUSDT"] * 3, "continuity_id": ["a"] * 3, # The huge print exactly at t=0 must not fill an order activated at t=0. "available_ts_ns": [0, SECOND, 2 * SECOND], "price": [100.0, 100.0, 100.0], "quantity": [100.0, 3.0, 4.0], "aggressor_side": ["sell", "sell", "sell"], } ) def test_limit_fill_proxy_is_strict_partial_and_explicitly_censored() -> None: labels = build_hypothetical_limit_fill_labels( _limit_books(), _limit_trades(), LimitFillAssumptions( side="buy", horizon_ns=2 * SECOND, order_quantity=3.0, queue_ahead_fraction=0.5, ), ) at_zero = labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a0").row(0, named=True) assert at_zero["limit_initial_queue_ahead"] == 5.0 assert at_zero["limit_observed_executable_quantity"] == 7.0 assert at_zero["limit_fill_quantity"] == 2.0 assert at_zero["limit_fill_fraction"] == pytest.approx(2.0 / 3.0) assert at_zero["limit_full_fill"] is False assert at_zero["limit_label_information_end_ts_ns"] == 2 * SECOND assert at_zero["limit_trade_evidence_required"] is True assert at_zero["limit_equal_time_ordering"] == "trade_at_activation_excluded" assert "cancellations" in at_zero["limit_label_assumption"] at_three = labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a3").row(0, named=True) assert at_three["limit_right_censored"] is True assert at_three["limit_censor_reason"] == "segment_ends_before_horizon" assert at_three["limit_fill_fraction"] is None assert at_three["limit_label_information_end_ts_ns"] is None no_trade_labels = build_hypothetical_limit_fill_labels( _limit_books(), _limit_trades().head(0), LimitFillAssumptions( side="buy", horizon_ns=2 * SECOND, order_quantity=3.0, queue_ahead_fraction=0.5, ), ) no_trade_at_zero = no_trade_labels.filter(pl.col("sample_id") == "a0").row(0, named=True) assert no_trade_at_zero["limit_right_censored"] is False assert no_trade_at_zero["limit_fill_quantity"] == 0.0 def test_post_fill_adverse_selection_has_side_aware_markout_and_gap_censoring() -> None: fills = pl.DataFrame( { "fill_id": ["buy", "sell", "gap"], "symbol": ["BTCUSDT"] * 3, "continuity_id": ["a", "a", "a"], "fill_ts_ns": [0, SECOND, 6 * SECOND], "fill_price": [100.0, 104.0, 106.0], "side": ["buy", "sell", "buy"], } ) labels = build_post_fill_adverse_selection_labels( fills, _clock_books(), AdverseSelectionSpec(horizons_ns=(2 * SECOND,), max_target_staleness_ns=SECOND), ) buy = labels.filter(pl.col("fill_id") == "buy").row(0, named=True) assert buy["post_fill_markout_bps"] == pytest.approx(300.0) assert buy["adverse_selection_bps"] == pytest.approx(-300.0) assert buy["adverse_selection_indicator"] is False assert buy["adverse_label_information_end_ts_ns"] == 3 * SECOND sell = labels.filter(pl.col("fill_id") == "sell").row(0, named=True) assert sell["post_fill_markout_bps"] == pytest.approx(10_000.0 / 104.0) assert sell["adverse_selection_bps"] < 0 gap = labels.filter(pl.col("fill_id") == "gap").row(0, named=True) assert gap["adverse_right_censored"] is True assert gap["adverse_censor_reason"] == "no_same_segment_future_state" assert gap["post_fill_markout_bps"] is None assert gap["adverse_label_information_end_ts_ns"] is None