from __future__ import annotations import polars as pl import pytest from microstructure.config import EvaluationConfig from microstructure.research.splits import SplitError, expanding_walk_forward_splits def _config(*, embargo: int = 2) -> EvaluationConfig: return EvaluationConfig( min_train_events=6, validation_events=3, test_events=3, step_events=3, embargo_events=embargo, bootstrap_samples=50, calibration_bins=5, ) def _interval_frame(rows: int = 16) -> pl.DataFrame: decision = list(range(rows)) censored = [index + 2 >= rows for index in decision] return pl.DataFrame( { "symbol": ["BTCUSDT"] * rows, "decision_ts_ns": decision, "label_information_end_ts_ns": [ None if is_censored else index + 2 for index, is_censored in zip(decision, censored, strict=True) ], "right_censored": censored, } ) def test_expanding_folds_purge_overlap_and_apply_embargo() -> None: frame = _interval_frame() plan = expanding_walk_forward_splits(frame, _config()) assert len(plan.folds) == 2 first = plan.folds[0] assert first.validation_start_ts_ns == 6 assert first.validation_end_ts_ns == 8 assert first.train_indices.tolist() == [0, 1, 2, 3] assert first.validation_indices.tolist() == [6, 7, 8] assert first.purged_rows == 2 assert first.embargoed_time_buckets == 2 second = plan.folds[1] assert second.train_indices.tolist() == list(range(7)) assert second.validation_indices.tolist() == [9, 10] assert set(first.train_indices).issubset(set(second.train_indices)) for fold in plan.folds: train = frame[fold.train_indices] validation = frame[fold.validation_indices] assert train.get_column("label_information_end_ts_ns").max() < fold.validation_start_ts_ns assert validation.get_column("label_information_end_ts_ns").max() < plan.test_start_ts_ns assert fold.train_end_ts_ns < fold.validation_start_ts_ns def test_final_period_is_frozen_and_never_enters_development() -> None: plan = expanding_walk_forward_splits(_interval_frame(), _config()) assert plan.test_start_ts_ns == 13 assert plan.test_end_ts_ns == 15 # The final two decisions are censored; only t=13 has a complete two-event target. assert plan.test_indices.tolist() == [13] development_validation = { int(index) for fold in plan.folds for index in fold.validation_indices } assert development_validation.isdisjoint(set(plan.test_indices)) assert max(plan.final_train_indices) < min(plan.test_indices) def test_validation_labels_cannot_end_inside_final_test() -> None: frame = _interval_frame(rows=50) config = EvaluationConfig( min_train_events=20, validation_events=10, test_events=10, step_events=10, embargo_events=2, bootstrap_samples=50, calibration_bins=5, ) plan = expanding_walk_forward_splits(frame, config) assert plan.test_start_ts_ns == 40 last_validation = frame.with_row_index("row_id").filter( pl.col("row_id").is_in(plan.folds[-1].validation_indices) ) assert last_validation.get_column("decision_ts_ns").to_list() == list(range(30, 38)) assert last_validation.get_column("label_information_end_ts_ns").max() < plan.test_start_ts_ns def test_same_timestamp_instruments_stay_in_the_same_fold() -> None: base = _interval_frame() eth = base.with_columns(pl.lit("ETHUSDT").alias("symbol")) pooled = pl.concat([base, eth]).sort(["decision_ts_ns", "symbol"]) plan = expanding_walk_forward_splits(pooled, _config()) first_validation = pooled.with_row_index("row_id").filter( pl.col("row_id").is_in(plan.folds[0].validation_indices) ) counts = first_validation.group_by("decision_ts_ns").len().get_column("len") assert counts.to_list() == [2, 2, 2] def test_too_short_sample_fails_closed() -> None: with pytest.raises(SplitError, match="need at least"): expanding_walk_forward_splits(_interval_frame(rows=10), _config())