"""Command-line interface. Every Makefile target maps to a subcommand here.""" from __future__ import annotations import json from pathlib import Path from typing import Annotated import typer from rich.console import Console from rich.table import Table from lockin.config import Config, load_config app = typer.Typer( add_completion=False, no_args_is_help=True, help="Mortgage Rate Lock-In, Housing Liquidity, and Local Market Dynamics.", ) console = Console() ConfigOpt = Annotated[str, typer.Option("--config", "-c", help="Path to a run profile YAML.")] def _cfg(config: str) -> Config: cfg = load_config(config) banner = ( "[bold yellow]SYNTHETIC[/] loan fixtures" if cfg.data_class == "SYNTHETIC" else "[bold green]REGISTERED[/] loan data" ) console.print(f"profile [bold]{cfg.name}[/] · {banner} · config digest [dim]{cfg.digest()}[/]") return cfg def _report_problems(label: str, problems: list[str]) -> int: hard = [p for p in problems if p.startswith("HARD")] soft = [p for p in problems if p.startswith("SOFT")] info = [p for p in problems if p.startswith("INFO")] if not problems: console.print(f" [green]✓[/] {label}: no issues") return 0 for p in hard: console.print(f" [bold red]✗[/] {p}") for p in soft: console.print(f" [yellow]![/] {p}") for p in info: console.print(f" [dim]i[/] {p}") return len(hard) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @app.command("verify-schema") def verify_schema() -> None: """Check the encoded Freddie Mac layout against its own invariants.""" from lockin.schemas.freddie import ( ORIGINATION_FIELDS, PERFORMANCE_FIELDS, SCHEMA_VERSION, VERIFIED_AGAINST, ZERO_BALANCE_CODES, assert_layout_verified, ) assert_layout_verified() console.print(f"[green]✓[/] schema {SCHEMA_VERSION}") console.print( f" {len(ORIGINATION_FIELDS)} origination fields, " f"{len(PERFORMANCE_FIELDS)} performance fields" ) t = Table("ZB", "official label", "event class", "censored", "priority") for z in sorted(ZERO_BALANCE_CODES.values(), key=lambda x: x.priority): t.add_row(z.code, z.official_label, z.event_class, str(z.censoring), str(z.priority)) console.print(t) console.print(" verified against:") for k, v in VERIFIED_AGAINST.items(): console.print(f" {k}: {v}") @app.command("check-registered-data") def check_registered_data(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Preflight the registered Freddie Mac archives BEFORE a multi-hour ingest. Reads only the head of each member: seconds, not hours. Exits non-zero on a blocker. """ from lockin.preflight import registration_steps, run_preflight cfg = _cfg(config) pf = run_preflight(cfg) for f in pf.findings: style = {"BLOCKER": "[bold red]x[/]", "WARNING": "[yellow]![/]", "INFO": "[dim]i[/]"}[ f.level ] console.print(f" {style} {f.message}") if pf.files: t = Table("kind", "cohort", "fields", "expected", "probed", "source") for row in pf.files: t.add_row( str(row["kind"]), str(row["cohort"]), str(row.get("modal_field_count", "?")), str(row.get("expected_field_count", "?")), str(row.get("lines_probed", 0)), str(row["source"])[-52:], ) console.print(t) # No files at all means the user has not completed registration yet -- which is # exactly when they need the steps, so print them BEFORE the blocker summary. if not pf.files: console.print("\n[bold]Steps only you can perform:[/]") for step in registration_steps(): console.print(f" {step}") if pf.n_blockers: console.print(f"\n[bold red]{pf.n_blockers} blocker(s).[/] Do not ingest yet.") raise typer.Exit(code=1) console.print("\n[green]Preflight clean.[/] Set mortgage.mode and run `make reproduce-sample`.") @app.command("emit-layout") def emit_layout() -> None: """Regenerate data/reference/freddie_llds_layout.yaml from the schema module. The YAML is committed so the field map is reviewable without reading Python; it is generated so the two cannot drift. A test enforces that they agree. """ import yaml from lockin.config import REPO_ROOT from lockin.schemas.freddie import assert_layout_verified, layout_spec assert_layout_verified() out = REPO_ROOT / "data" / "reference" / "freddie_llds_layout.yaml" out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) with out.open("w") as fh: fh.write("# GENERATED by `lockin emit-layout` -- do not hand-edit.\n") yaml.safe_dump(layout_spec(), fh, sort_keys=False, allow_unicode=True, width=100) console.print(f"[green]OK[/] wrote {out}") @app.command("fetch-public-data") def fetch_public_data(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Download the official public series, required and optional.""" from lockin.adapters import ( bls_laus, census_bps, fhfa_hpi, hmda, omb_cbsa, pmms, teleworkable, ) cfg = _cfg(config) results: dict[str, str] = {} for label, fn in ( ("pmms", lambda: pmms.fetch(cfg)), ("fhfa_hpi", lambda: fhfa_hpi.fetch(cfg)), ): try: coverage, rows = fn() results[label] = f"ok · {rows:,} rows · {coverage}" except Exception as exc: results[label] = f"FAILED · {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" if cfg.rates.cross_check_fred: try: df = pmms.fetch_fred_cross_check(cfg) results["fred_mortgage30us"] = f"ok · {df.height:,} rows" except Exception as exc: results["fred_mortgage30us"] = f"FAILED · {exc}" try: coverage, rows = census_bps.fetch(cfg) results["census_bps"] = f"ok · {rows:,} rows · {coverage}" except Exception as exc: results["census_bps"] = f"FAILED · {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" try: coverage, rows = hmda.fetch(cfg) results["hmda"] = f"ok · {rows:,} rows · {coverage}" except Exception as exc: results["hmda"] = f"FAILED · {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" # Optional sources. Each one closes a specific identification threat, and each is # allowed to fail: the pipeline records the absence on every artifact rather than # stopping. They are fetched HERE so that a fresh clone actually gets them -- # previously LAUS was only ever `try_load`ed, so a new checkout ran with the # labour-shock threat uncontrolled while the documentation said otherwise. optional: dict[str, str] = {} try: coverage, rows = bls_laus.fetch(cfg) optional["bls_laus"] = f"ok · {rows:,} rows · {coverage}" except Exception as exc: optional["bls_laus"] = f"FAILED · {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" try: counts = teleworkable.fetch(cfg) optional["teleworkable"] = f"ok · {counts['state']} states · {counts['msa']} CBSAs" except Exception as exc: optional["teleworkable"] = f"FAILED · {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" # Metropolitan variants, fetched only when the run is actually at MSA geography: # each costs real requests against a public service, and the state-level run has no # use for them. if cfg.panel.geography == "msa": for label, fn in ( ("hmda_msa", lambda: hmda.fetch_msa(cfg)), ("census_bps_metro", lambda: census_bps.fetch_metro(cfg)), ("bls_laus_metro", lambda: bls_laus.fetch_metro(cfg)), ): try: coverage, rows = fn() optional[label] = f"ok · {rows:,} rows · {coverage}" except Exception as exc: optional[label] = f"FAILED · {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" try: cw = omb_cbsa.fetch(cfg) optional["omb_cbsa"] = ( f"ok · {cw['codes']:,} codes · {cw.get('stable', 0):,} stable across " f"{len(omb_cbsa.VINTAGES)} vintages" ) except Exception as exc: optional["omb_cbsa"] = f"FAILED · {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}" t = Table("source", "tier", "result") for k, v in results.items(): t.add_row(k, "required", v) for k, v in optional.items(): t.add_row(k, "optional", v) console.print(t) if any(v.startswith("FAILED") for v in results.values()): console.print("[yellow]Some sources failed. The pipeline continues with what is cached.[/]") for k, v in optional.items(): if v.startswith("FAILED"): console.print( f"[yellow]{k} unavailable — the threat it addresses stays UNCONTROLLED " "and every artifact records that.[/]" ) @app.command("prepare-sample-data") def prepare_sample_data(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Generate labeled SYNTHETIC loan fixtures (no restricted data involved).""" from lockin.adapters import freddie_llds, pmms from lockin.fixtures import generate from lockin.rates import monthly_market_rate cfg = _cfg(config) console.print(freddie_llds.availability_message(cfg)) if cfg.mortgage.mode != "synthetic" and freddie_llds.discover(cfg): console.print("[green]Registered data present; skipping fixture generation.[/]") return rates = monthly_market_rate(pmms.load(cfg), series=cfg.rates.series) summary = generate(cfg, rates) console.print( f"[green]✓[/] wrote {len(summary.files)} SYNTHETIC files: " f"{summary.n_loans:,} loans, {summary.n_performance_rows:,} loan-months, " f"cohorts {summary.cohorts}, seed {summary.seed}" ) console.print("[yellow]These are synthetic. No number derived from them is a finding.[/]") @app.command("ingest-mortgages") def ingest_mortgages(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Parse origination and monthly performance files into partitioned Parquet.""" from lockin.ingest import origination, performance cfg = _cfg(config) o = origination.ingest(cfg) console.print(f"[green]✓[/] origination: {sum(o.values()):,} loans {dict(o)}") p = performance.ingest(cfg) console.print(f"[green]✓[/] performance: {sum(p.values()):,} loan-months {dict(p)}") @app.command("build-loan-events") def build_loan_events_cmd(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Build the documented loan-event table (exits, censoring, left truncation).""" from lockin.events import build_loan_events, validate_events, write_loan_events cfg = _cfg(config) events = build_loan_events(cfg) hard = _report_problems("loan events", validate_events(events)) path, summ = write_loan_events(cfg, events) console.print(f"[green]✓[/] {events.height:,} loans -> {path}") t = Table("event type", "loans", "share") for row in summ["by_event_type"]: t.add_row( str(row["event_type"]), f"{int(row['n_loans']):,}", f"{100 * int(row['n_loans']) / events.height:.1f}%", ) console.print(t) if hard: raise typer.Exit(code=1) @app.command("build-lockin") def build_lockin_cmd(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Attach point-in-time market rates and compute all lock-in measures.""" from lockin.adapters import fhfa_hpi, pmms from lockin.episodes import build_episodes, validate_episodes, write_episodes from lockin.events import load_loan_events from lockin.rates import assert_no_look_ahead, monthly_market_rate cfg = _cfg(config) rates = monthly_market_rate(pmms.load(cfg), series=cfg.rates.series) assert_no_look_ahead(rates) console.print(f" point-in-time market rates: {rates.height} months, no look-ahead ✓") try: hpi_q = fhfa_hpi.load_series( cfg, flavor=cfg.panel.hpi_flavor, frequency=cfg.panel.hpi_frequency, level="State", seasonal=cfg.panel.hpi_seasonal, ) # The episode table needs a monthly index value to scale LTV. A quarterly # index expanded by holding the level within the quarter is acceptable for # that purpose and is labeled in index_basis; it is NEVER used as an outcome. hpi = fhfa_hpi.to_monthly(hpi_q) console.print( f" FHFA HPI ({cfg.panel.hpi_flavor}, {cfg.panel.hpi_frequency}, State): " f"{hpi_q.height:,} rows -> {hpi.height:,} monthly rows " f"(basis: {hpi['index_basis'][0]})" ) except (FileNotFoundError, ValueError) as exc: console.print(f" [yellow]![/] HPI unavailable ({exc}); estimated LTV degrades") hpi = None events = load_loan_events(cfg) # Build and write one cohort at a time. Collecting all cohorts at once # materialises the whole episode table, which OOM-kills the process on the full # Standard dataset. See lockin.episodes.write_episodes. cohorts = sorted(set(events["cohort"].unique().to_list())) if len(cohorts) > 1: path, n = write_episodes( cfg, build=lambda c: build_episodes(cfg, events, rates, hpi, cohort=c), cohorts=cohorts, ) else: path, n = write_episodes(cfg, build_episodes(cfg, events, rates, hpi)) console.print(f"[green]✓[/] {n:,} loan-month episodes -> {path}") hard = _report_problems("episodes", validate_episodes(cfg)) if hard: raise typer.Exit(code=1) @app.command("build-local-panel") def build_local_panel_cmd(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Build the geography-month active stock and the local housing-market panel.""" from lockin.panel.build import build_local_panel from lockin.stock import build_active_stock cfg = _cfg(config) stock, spath = build_active_stock(cfg) console.print( f"[green]✓[/] active mortgage stock: {stock.height:,} geography-months -> {spath}" ) panel, ppath, notes = build_local_panel(cfg) console.print(f"[green]✓[/] local market panel: {panel.height:,} rows -> {ppath}") for n in notes: console.print(f" [dim]·[/] {n}") @app.command("validate-data") def validate_data(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Schema, coverage, checksum, and internal-consistency validation.""" from lockin.validate import run_all_validations cfg = _cfg(config) result = run_all_validations(cfg) for section, problems in result["sections"].items(): # type: ignore[index] console.print(f"[bold]{section}[/]") _report_problems(section, problems) console.print( f"\n[bold]{result['n_hard']}[/] hard, [bold]{result['n_soft']}[/] soft, " f"[bold]{result['n_info']}[/] informational" ) if int(result["n_hard"]) > 0: # type: ignore[arg-type] raise typer.Exit(code=1) @app.command("estimate-hazards") def estimate_hazards(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """KM/CIF description, discrete-time logit and cloglog, Cox, competing risks.""" from lockin.survival.run import run_hazard_ladder cfg = _cfg(config) written = run_hazard_ladder(cfg) for name, path in written.items(): console.print(f" [green]✓[/] {name} -> {path}") @app.command("estimate-local-effects") def estimate_local_effects(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Continuous-treatment event study, DiD panel, pre-trends, placebos.""" from lockin.panel.eventstudy import run_event_studies cfg = _cfg(config) written = run_event_studies(cfg) for name, path in written.items(): console.print(f" [green]✓[/] {name} -> {path}") @app.command("robustness") def robustness(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Run the robustness and falsification grid.""" from lockin.panel.robustness import run_robustness_grid cfg = _cfg(config) path, n_fail = run_robustness_grid(cfg) console.print(f" [green]✓[/] robustness grid -> {path} ({n_fail} cells flagged)") @app.command("benchmark") def benchmark(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Compare against published mortgage lock-in research benchmarks.""" from lockin.benchmark import run_benchmark cfg = _cfg(config) path = run_benchmark(cfg) console.print(f" [green]✓[/] benchmark comparison -> {path}") @app.command("simulate-policy") def simulate_policy(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Run the model-dependent policy counterfactual scenarios.""" from lockin.simulate.scenarios import run_scenarios cfg = _cfg(config) written = run_scenarios(cfg) for name, path in written.items(): console.print(f" [green]✓[/] {name} -> {path}") console.print("[yellow]Scenarios are model-dependent projections, not forecasts.[/]") @app.command("report") def report(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Regenerate every report in reports/ from result artifacts.""" from lockin.reporting.render import render_all cfg = _cfg(config) written = render_all(cfg) for p in written: console.print(f" [green]✓[/] {p}") @app.command("status") def status(config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Print pipeline state: which stages have run and what they produced.""" from lockin.pipeline_status import pipeline_status cfg = _cfg(config) st = pipeline_status(cfg) t = Table("stage", "state", "detail") for row in st["stages"]: # type: ignore[index] mark = "[green]✓[/]" if row["ok"] else "[red]✗[/]" t.add_row(str(row["stage"]), mark, str(row["detail"])) console.print(t) console.print(json.dumps({k: v for k, v in st.items() if k != "stages"}, indent=2)) @app.command("dump-artifact") def dump_artifact(group: str, name: str, config: ConfigOpt = "configs/sample.yaml") -> None: """Print one result artifact as JSON.""" from lockin.artifacts import read_artifact cfg = load_config(config) console.print_json(json.dumps(read_artifact(cfg, group, name))) def app_main() -> None: # pragma: no cover - entry point app() if __name__ == "__main__": # pragma: no cover app_main() def _unused(p: Path) -> None: # pragma: no cover return None