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license: cc-by-4.0
language:
- en
pretty_name: Prediction Market Calibration Scorecards
tags:
- prediction-markets
- calibration
- brier-score
- log-loss
- forecasting
source_datasets:
- original
---
# Prediction Market Calibration Scorecards
Monthly Brier + log-loss calibration breakdowns for Kalshi + Polymarket. Each month provides mean Brier, mean log-loss, per-venue and per-category breakdowns, and a 10-bucket calibration histogram (actual vs predicted). Published with a 14-day delay after month-end to capture late resolutions.
## License and Use
This dataset is released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
(CC-BY-4.0; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). You may use it
freely for personal, research, educational, and commercial purposes — including
training, evaluating, and fine-tuning machine-learning models. Attribution is
required when the dataset is redistributed in substantially its original form
or cited in published work; credit as "SimpleFunctions (simplefunctions.dev)".
Additional terms apply: you may not re-host this dataset, in whole or in
substantial part, as an API or service that functionally substitutes for a
SimpleFunctions endpoint. See Terms §13.2 at https://simplefunctions.dev/terms.
Provenance, update cadence, and schema are documented below.
## Update cadence
Monthly (14-day delay).
## Provenance
Source: https://simplefunctions.dev
Generator: SimpleFunctions public data pipeline
Contact: patrick@simplefunctions.dev
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