calibration-scorecards / 2026-01.json
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Refresh calibration scorecard for 2026-01 (1045 rows)
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{
"month": "2026-01",
"count": 1045,
"mean_brier": 0.0027,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0215,
"by_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"count": 1045,
"mean_brier": 0.0027,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0215
}
],
"by_category": [
{
"category": "Entertainment",
"count": 410,
"mean_brier": 0.0005
},
{
"category": "Sports",
"count": 278,
"mean_brier": 0.0006
},
{
"category": "Mentions",
"count": 158,
"mean_brier": 0.004
},
{
"category": "Companies",
"count": 86,
"mean_brier": 0.0074
},
{
"category": "Politics",
"count": 71,
"mean_brier": 0.0055
},
{
"category": "Crypto",
"count": 25,
"mean_brier": 0.0224
},
{
"category": "Elections",
"count": 9,
"mean_brier": 0.0219
},
{
"category": "Science and Technology",
"count": 3,
"mean_brier": 0.0018
},
{
"category": "Financials",
"count": 3,
"mean_brier": 0.0001
},
{
"category": "Economics",
"count": 1,
"mean_brier": 0.0009
}
],
"calibration_buckets": [
{
"bucket_lo": 0,
"bucket_hi": 0.1,
"count": 721,
"actual_rate": 0
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.1,
"bucket_hi": 0.2,
"count": 10,
"actual_rate": 0
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.2,
"bucket_hi": 0.3,
"count": 2,
"actual_rate": 0.5
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.3,
"bucket_hi": 0.4,
"count": 0,
"actual_rate": null
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.4,
"bucket_hi": 0.5,
"count": 1,
"actual_rate": 1
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.5,
"bucket_hi": 0.6,
"count": 4,
"actual_rate": 0.5
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.6,
"bucket_hi": 0.7,
"count": 0,
"actual_rate": null
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.7,
"bucket_hi": 0.8,
"count": 3,
"actual_rate": 1
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.8,
"bucket_hi": 0.9,
"count": 4,
"actual_rate": 1
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.9,
"bucket_hi": 1,
"count": 300,
"actual_rate": 1
}
],
"filter": {
"min_volume": 100
},
"generated_at": "2026-07-07T06:50:28.309Z"
}