calibration-scorecards / 2026-03.json
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Refresh calibration scorecard for 2026-03 (52881 rows)
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{
"month": "2026-03",
"count": 52881,
"mean_brier": 0.0154,
"mean_log_loss": 0.063,
"by_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"count": 52881,
"mean_brier": 0.0154,
"mean_log_loss": 0.063
}
],
"by_category": [
{
"category": "Sports",
"count": 29819,
"mean_brier": 0.0171
},
{
"category": "Crypto",
"count": 14951,
"mean_brier": 0.0115
},
{
"category": "Mentions",
"count": 2590,
"mean_brier": 0.0025
},
{
"category": "Financials",
"count": 2058,
"mean_brier": 0.0441
},
{
"category": "Climate and Weather",
"count": 1348,
"mean_brier": 0.0039
},
{
"category": "Entertainment",
"count": 1013,
"mean_brier": 0.012
},
{
"category": "Elections",
"count": 456,
"mean_brier": 0.0036
},
{
"category": "Politics",
"count": 269,
"mean_brier": 0.0107
},
{
"category": "Economics",
"count": 263,
"mean_brier": 0.0483
},
{
"category": "Social",
"count": 58,
"mean_brier": 0.0003
}
],
"calibration_buckets": [
{
"bucket_lo": 0,
"bucket_hi": 0.1,
"count": 27332,
"actual_rate": 0.0022
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.1,
"bucket_hi": 0.2,
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"actual_rate": 0.0246
},
{
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"bucket_hi": 0.3,
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"actual_rate": 0.0505
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.3,
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"actual_rate": 0.0515
},
{
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"actual_rate": 0.0959
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"actual_rate": 0.4936
},
{
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"count": 385,
"actual_rate": 0.6987
},
{
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"bucket_hi": 1,
"count": 21388,
"actual_rate": 0.9928
}
],
"filter": {
"min_volume": 100
},
"generated_at": "2026-07-08T06:50:26.138Z"
}