calibration-scorecards / 2026-04.json
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Refresh calibration scorecard for 2026-04 (291518 rows)
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{
"month": "2026-04",
"count": 291518,
"mean_brier": 0.0185,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0726,
"by_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"count": 213280,
"mean_brier": 0.016,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0657
},
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"count": 78238,
"mean_brier": 0.0253,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0916
}
],
"by_category": [
{
"category": "Sports",
"count": 146120,
"mean_brier": 0.0198
},
{
"category": "Crypto",
"count": 56175,
"mean_brier": 0.0093
},
{
"category": "Up or Down",
"count": 33920,
"mean_brier": 0.0221
},
{
"category": "Climate and Weather",
"count": 7990,
"mean_brier": 0.0093
},
{
"category": "Mentions",
"count": 7785,
"mean_brier": 0.0046
},
{
"category": "Weather",
"count": 6355,
"mean_brier": 0.0006
},
{
"category": "Financials",
"count": 5954,
"mean_brier": 0.0331
},
{
"category": "Tennis",
"count": 4272,
"mean_brier": 0.0742
},
{
"category": "Esports",
"count": 3846,
"mean_brier": 0.042
},
{
"category": "Crypto Prices",
"count": 2506,
"mean_brier": 0.0239
}
],
"calibration_buckets": [
{
"bucket_lo": 0,
"bucket_hi": 0.1,
"count": 140678,
"actual_rate": 0.0014
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.1,
"bucket_hi": 0.2,
"count": 9028,
"actual_rate": 0.0094
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.2,
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},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.3,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"actual_rate": 0.3693
},
{
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},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.9,
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"count": 122606,
"actual_rate": 0.9895
}
],
"filter": {
"min_volume": 100
},
"generated_at": "2026-07-07T06:50:26.730Z"
}