calibration-scorecards / 2026-05.json
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Refresh calibration scorecard for 2026-05 (306880 rows)
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{
"month": "2026-05",
"count": 306880,
"mean_brier": 0.0177,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0705,
"by_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"count": 189800,
"mean_brier": 0.0121,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0525
},
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"count": 117080,
"mean_brier": 0.0268,
"mean_log_loss": 0.0996
}
],
"by_category": [
{
"category": "Sports",
"count": 137679,
"mean_brier": 0.0157
},
{
"category": "Crypto",
"count": 51836,
"mean_brier": 0.0098
},
{
"category": "Up or Down",
"count": 44755,
"mean_brier": 0.0259
},
{
"category": "Weather",
"count": 9581,
"mean_brier": 0.0016
},
{
"category": "Climate and Weather",
"count": 7725,
"mean_brier": 0.0069
},
{
"category": "Tennis",
"count": 6794,
"mean_brier": 0.0584
},
{
"category": "Esports",
"count": 6141,
"mean_brier": 0.046
},
{
"category": "Mentions",
"count": 5912,
"mean_brier": 0.0023
},
{
"category": "Crypto Prices",
"count": 5542,
"mean_brier": 0.0226
},
{
"category": "Financials",
"count": 3923,
"mean_brier": 0.034
}
],
"calibration_buckets": [
{
"bucket_lo": 0,
"bucket_hi": 0.1,
"count": 149393,
"actual_rate": 0.0018
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.1,
"bucket_hi": 0.2,
"count": 9038,
"actual_rate": 0.0117
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.2,
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"actual_rate": 0.0219
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.3,
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},
{
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"actual_rate": 0.0448
},
{
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},
{
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"actual_rate": 0.1724
},
{
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"count": 1109,
"actual_rate": 0.3472
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.8,
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"count": 1167,
"actual_rate": 0.587
},
{
"bucket_lo": 0.9,
"bucket_hi": 1,
"count": 128905,
"actual_rate": 0.9906
}
],
"filter": {
"min_volume": 100
},
"generated_at": "2026-07-08T06:50:23.329Z"
}