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"name": "World Awareness Benchmark",
"version": "1.0.0",
"description": "Tests whether AI agents accurately know current world state.",
"date": "2026-08-01",
"source": "SimpleFunctions World Model",
"scoring": {
"exact_match": 2,
"correct_direction": 1,
"wrong_or_refused": 0,
"max_score": 176
},
"categories": [
"Geopolitical",
"Economy",
"Markets",
"Politics",
"Tech",
"Climate",
"Sports",
"Ukraine Peace Deal",
"Monad"
],
"question_count": 88,
"questions": [
{
"id": "geo-001",
"question": "What is the SimpleFunctions Geo Risk Index score (0-100)?",
"category": "Geopolitical",
"ground_truth": 0,
"unit": "score_0_100",
"source": "SimpleFunctions Index",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-002",
"question": "What is the SimpleFunctions Disagreement Index (0-100)?",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 31,
"unit": "score_0_100",
"source": "SimpleFunctions Index",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-003",
"question": "Is the SimpleFunctions market breadth positive or negative?",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": "positive",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "SimpleFunctions Index",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-004",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will there be a recession in 2026??",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 8,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-005",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will there be a recession in 2027??",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 39,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will there be a recession in 2027?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "geo-006",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027??",
"category": "Geopolitical",
"ground_truth": 7,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "geo-007",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027??",
"category": "Geopolitical",
"ground_truth": 5,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-008",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Fed rate cut by...?: December Meeting?",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 12,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Fed rate cut by...?: December Meeting",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-009",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Fed rate cut by...?: September Meeting?",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 2,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Fed rate cut by...?: September Meeting",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-010",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026??",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 96,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-011",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026??",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 15,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "geo-012",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??",
"category": "Geopolitical",
"ground_truth": 4,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "geo-013",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027??",
"category": "Geopolitical",
"ground_truth": 14,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "geo-014",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: September 30?",
"category": "Geopolitical",
"ground_truth": 29,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: September 30",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "geo-015",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: December 31?",
"category": "Geopolitical",
"ground_truth": 61,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: December 31",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "pol-016",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election??",
"category": "Politics",
"ground_truth": 72,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "pol-017",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026??",
"category": "Politics",
"ground_truth": 31,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-018",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 8pm EDT??",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 15,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 8pm EDT?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-019",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM??",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 14,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-020",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the gold close price be above 3824.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT??",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 97,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will the gold close price be above 3824.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-021",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the gold close price be above 3971.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT??",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 67,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will the gold close price be above 3971.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-022",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%??",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 18,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-023",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: July Inflation US - Monthly: ≥0.1%?",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 64,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "July Inflation US - Monthly: ≥0.1%",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-024",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July??",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 68,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "eco-025",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in July??",
"category": "Economy",
"ground_truth": 44,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in July?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "tec-026",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Which company has best AI model end of August?: OpenAI?",
"category": "Tech",
"ground_truth": 2,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Which company has best AI model end of August?: OpenAI",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "tec-027",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Which company has best AI model end of August?: Anthropic?",
"category": "Tech",
"ground_truth": 94,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Which company has best AI model end of August?: Anthropic",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "cli-028",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Aug 1, 2026??",
"category": "Climate",
"ground_truth": 4,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Aug 1, 2026?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "cli-029",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Aug 1, 2026??",
"category": "Climate",
"ground_truth": 20,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Aug 1, 2026?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "pol-030",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027??",
"category": "Politics",
"ground_truth": 5,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "pol-031",
"question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?: December 31?",
"category": "Politics",
"ground_truth": 71,
"unit": "percent_cents",
"source": "Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?: December 31",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-032",
"question": "What is the current SPY price?",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 746.79,
"unit": "usd",
"source": "SPY via Databento",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-033",
"question": "What is the current QQQ price?",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 685.55,
"unit": "usd",
"source": "QQQ via Databento",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-034",
"question": "What is the current GLD price?",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 371.2,
"unit": "usd",
"source": "GLD via Databento",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-035",
"question": "What is the current USO price?",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 131.9,
"unit": "usd",
"source": "USO via Databento",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-036",
"question": "What is the current TLT price?",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 82.15,
"unit": "usd",
"source": "TLT via Databento",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-037",
"question": "What is the current IWM price?",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 291.15,
"unit": "usd",
"source": "IWM via Databento",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "mar-038",
"question": "What is the current EEM price?",
"category": "Markets",
"ground_truth": 64.02,
"unit": "usd",
"source": "EEM via Databento",
"tolerance": 5,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-039",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0xbc2d59e8ea0378f0851c86e84d250e80a5698874db52c13798053841f291dc28",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-040",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0xc094fd60c0a09ba0df48a086ef91e12390fa8777fcd9cb63c154e9622cb1d497",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-041",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0x298157e618b5729dafd742eec9b21e040a13da0bb09ff1fa4492360c347e3824",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-042",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0xe492ad958b21201e928b6666570820a184b8f71e834910945efcfb86eecd02cd",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-043",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0xf523e45d6bfe49d30e45e4e7794fd6e5f621b0304e07044fef156e6dd4d4b249",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-044",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0xe709dcb12986139fa5b4cc793069d0c64bde1bfb351914c95bdd6149ec91a3ee",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-045",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0x314ec5fd53735e23cadc475161e37b1529984d97097c0fdf417941c44b6b274e",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-046",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0x30a8ed0d01b7e8b25334358f71d9ec71c147783c0f908c2e7c7a527905007bf8",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-047",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? (resolved 2026-07-12 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL-MCG",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-048",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: France vs Spain: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-14 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL14FRAESP-FRA",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-049",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Norway vs England: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-11 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL11NORENG-NOR",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-050",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: England vs Argentina: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-15 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "yes",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL15ENGARG-ARG",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-051",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Argentina vs Cape Verde: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-04 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL03ARGCPV-CPV",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-052",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup? (resolved 2026-07-14 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-053",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Norway win the 2026 Men's World Cup? (resolved 2026-07-12 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NO",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-054",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: France vs Spain: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-14 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "yes",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL14FRAESP-ESP",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "ukr-055",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? (resolved 2026-06-30 on polymarket)",
"category": "Ukraine Peace Deal",
"ground_truth": "yes",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "polymarket:0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-056",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Ecuador vs Germany Winner? (resolved 2026-06-25 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "no",
"unit": "direction",
"source": "kalshi:KXWCGAME-26JUN25ECUGER-GER",
"tolerance": 0,
"date": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": "spo-057",
"question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-12 on kalshi)",
"category": "Sports",
"ground_truth": "yes",
"unit": "direction",
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{
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} |