2026-05-06.json

{
  "date": "2026-05-06",
  "timestamp": "2026-05-06T23:50:28.293Z",
  "index": {
    "disagreement": 38,
    "geoRisk": 21,
    "breadth": 0.58,
    "activity": 14
  },
  "traditional": [
    {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "price": 726.46,
      "changePct": 1.17
    },
    {
      "symbol": "QQQ",
      "price": 686.1,
      "changePct": 2.13
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWM",
      "price": 283.18,
      "changePct": 2.02
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VIXY",
      "price": 27.66,
      "changePct": -0.14
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHY",
      "price": 82.18,
      "changePct": 0.02
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IEF",
      "price": 94.56,
      "changePct": 0.17
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TLT",
      "price": 85.43,
      "changePct": 0.52
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HYG",
      "price": 79.95,
      "changePct": 0.18
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GLD",
      "price": 418.07,
      "changePct": 0.74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "price": 140.86,
      "changePct": -4.42
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UNG",
      "price": 10.62,
      "changePct": -3.1
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CPER",
      "price": 36.32,
      "changePct": 2.09
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UUP",
      "price": 27.49,
      "changePct": 0.05
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FXE",
      "price": 107.89,
      "changePct": 0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XLE",
      "price": 59.45,
      "changePct": 0.07
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EEM",
      "price": 65.53,
      "changePct": 2.36
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IBIT",
      "price": 46.27,
      "changePct": 2.05
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ETHE",
      "price": 19.35,
      "changePct": 1.12
    }
  ],
  "topics": [],
  "topEdges": [],
  "divergences": [
    {
      "description": "total vote count for all participants… lagging margin of victory for Democrats in th… — 51¢ gap [US Elections]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    },
    {
      "description": "What floor price will Pudgy Penguins … overshooting Dogecoin price? — 45¢ gap [Crypto]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    },
    {
      "description": "Equity-oil split: SPY +1.2% vs Oil -4.4% — demand pulling, supply stable",
      "implication": "demand pulling, supply stable",
      "affectedTickers": []
    }
  ],
  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-06 23:15 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 38 | GeoRisk 21 | Breadth +0.58 | Activity 14\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] margin of victory for Democrats in th… overshooting Midterms: House Turnout — 61¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"2026 Midterms: House Turnout: 100-105m\",\"Δ\":\"40c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House elec\",\"Δ\":\"91c\"}\n- gap: -61\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0x2be443fd00e6c11ef4d08538f91c5f253c08efc97282729986894ef9808b89f8\n- laggingTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-HI01D-P30\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-vr3j7l`\n  → 2026 Midterms: House Turnout: 100-105m spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] What floor price will Pudgy Penguins … overshooting Dogecoin price? — 45¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Dogecoin price  on May 8, 2026?: $0.1 or above\",\"Δ\":\"-88c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What floor price will Pudgy Penguins hit before 2027?: ↑ 10 ETH\",\"Δ\":\"41c\"}\n- gap: -45\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: KXDOGED-26MAY0817-T0.0999999\n- laggingTicker: 0xdd4c65cc60600beba2d2ebb2e1a1734db8761e5295abf6cd4b2d2e2ef1ffd601\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-sjbsvg`\n  → Dogecoin price  on May 8, 2026?: $0.1 or above spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Edmundo González be the head of state of Ven…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXVENEZUELALEADER2\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXVENEZUELALEADER2-26JUN01-DROD\",\"title\":\"Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Jun 1, 2026?: Delcy Rodríguez\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXVENEZUELAL...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-7fod0`\n\n## [consensus_break] Peru Presidential Election First Round: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: 287772\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x53316ee53bbb1f8b488371cbcf29b851838909ff1bd266fac86bd3d62c99093b\",\"title\":\"Peru Presidential Election First Round: Turnout: 70-75%\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"0x307764...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill election-2026 · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xu31iw`\n\n## [consensus_break] Which teams will qualify to IEM Cologne Majo…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 248380\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x52fd140af510a2484b0e58533e6dbe90ec0e4ab011d1108ef91e890a26530b14\",\"title\":\"Which teams will qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? : BIG\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"0xf747...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xrwf70`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.595\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.595?: Above 4.595\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.595`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.595`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.585\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.585?: Above 4.585\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.585`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.585`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.590\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.590?: Above 4.590\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.590`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY07-4.590`\n\n## [divergence] Equity-oil split: SPY +1.2% vs Oil -4.4% — demand pulling, supply stable\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"+1.2%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"USO\",\"Δ\":\"-4.4%\"}\n- hypothesis: demand pulling, supply stable\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4075jg`\n  → SPY spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 29→14 (-15)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-06T11:45:00.048Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":29,\"to\":14,\"Δ\":-15,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":38,\"geoRisk\":19,\"breadth\":0.56,\"activity\":29}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":38,\"geoRisk\":21,\"breadth\":0.58,\"activity\":14}\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 203 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 442 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1214 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 670 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2887 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1078 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 284 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 259 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 11554ms",
  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1723
}