2026-05-07.json

{
  "date": "2026-05-07",
  "timestamp": "2026-05-07T23:50:29.315Z",
  "index": {
    "disagreement": 40,
    "geoRisk": 26,
    "breadth": 0.47,
    "activity": 0
  },
  "traditional": [
    {
      "symbol": "SPY",
      "price": 726.46,
      "changePct": 1.17
    },
    {
      "symbol": "QQQ",
      "price": 686.1,
      "changePct": 2.13
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWM",
      "price": 283.18,
      "changePct": 2.02
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VIXY",
      "price": 27.66,
      "changePct": -0.14
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHY",
      "price": 82.18,
      "changePct": 0.02
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IEF",
      "price": 94.56,
      "changePct": 0.17
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TLT",
      "price": 85.43,
      "changePct": 0.52
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HYG",
      "price": 79.95,
      "changePct": 0.18
    },
    {
      "symbol": "GLD",
      "price": 418.07,
      "changePct": 0.74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "USO",
      "price": 140.86,
      "changePct": -4.42
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UNG",
      "price": 10.62,
      "changePct": -3.1
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CPER",
      "price": 36.32,
      "changePct": 2.09
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UUP",
      "price": 27.49,
      "changePct": 0.05
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FXE",
      "price": 107.89,
      "changePct": 0
    },
    {
      "symbol": "XLE",
      "price": 59.45,
      "changePct": 0.07
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EEM",
      "price": 65.53,
      "changePct": 2.36
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IBIT",
      "price": 46.27,
      "changePct": 2.05
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ETHE",
      "price": 19.35,
      "changePct": 1.12
    }
  ],
  "topics": [],
  "topEdges": [],
  "divergences": [
    {
      "description": "MI-08 House Election Winner overshooting IL-17 House Election Winner — 49¢ gap [US Elections]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    },
    {
      "description": "Russia capture Huliaipilske by...? lagging Russia enter Khatnie by...? — 17¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    },
    {
      "description": "U.S. invade Iran? overshooting US obtains Iranian enriched uranium b… — 16¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]",
      "implication": "",
      "affectedTickers": []
    }
  ],
  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-07 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 40 | GeoRisk 26 | Breadth +0.47 | Activity 0\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] MI-08 House Election Winner overshooting IL-17 House Election Winner — 49¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"IL-17 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"-36c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"MI-08 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"87c\"}\n- gap: -49\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0x59946d130f7e7093e3463db4221f6e620f670b45ff4acd42def5e29742bee074\n- laggingTicker: 0x8937a2de7d60389eb73469769446044c12fd670b2a8230eee4f06e1e070b9c92\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-fdd8s6`\n  → IL-17 House Election Winner: Republican Party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 7.2σ volume @ 15¢ — federal funds rate be above 4.00%?\n- ticker: KXFED-26SEP-T4.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?: Above 4.00%\n- price: 15\n- residualVr: 7.207\n- vr: 8.207\n- volume24h: 795\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-vad21t`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-26SEP-T4.00`\n\n## [residual] 6.9σ volume @ 15¢ — federal funds rate be above 3.75%?\n- ticker: KXFED-26SEP-T3.75\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75%\n- price: 15\n- residualVr: 6.947\n- vr: 7.947\n- volume24h: 616\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-vacf8g`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-26SEP-T3.75`\n\n## [residual] 3.8σ volume @ 23¢ — Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March?\n- ticker: KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-C25\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?: Cut 25bps\n- price: 23\n- residualVr: 3.817\n- vr: 4.817\n- volume24h: 1125\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ob2hec`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-C25`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-C25`\n\n## [consensus_break] Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 48296\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xadde95f8ee376bb6b7ed5eab9444e3708487af8c9b39bee3bfe2acf1d9237b8d\",\"title\":\"Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap: 150–200B\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0xba31e7d0841fa9ef09...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6ulwtw`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 7 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [divergence] U.S. invade Iran? overshooting US obtains Iranian enriched uranium b… — 16¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?: June 30\",\"Δ\":\"-39c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?\",\"Δ\":\"24c\"}\n- gap: -16\n- theme: Iran / Hormuz crisis\n- triggerTicker: 0xc112ff35c760ee66738e288067c3de90a2b44a28a9e2f4488989d498be03b292\n- laggingTicker: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-zdbssj`\n  → US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?: June 30 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY08-4.570\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.570?: Above 4.570\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY08-4.570`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY08-4.570`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY08-4.610\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.610?: Above 4.610\n- price: 7\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.07\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY08-4.610`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY08-4.610`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 212 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 347 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1214 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 671 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2888 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 842 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 286 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 263 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 7927ms",
  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1769
}