| "markdown": "# World (2026-05-20 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 45 | GeoRisk 13 | Breadth +0.32 | Activity 14\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] margin of victory for Democrats in th… lagging Ala Stanford receive between 25% and … — 46¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Ala Stanford receive between 25% and 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pe\",\"Δ\":\"49c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 9th District House electi\",\"Δ\":\"28c\"}\n- gap: 46\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-27\n- laggingTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-OH09D-P3\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-b5tq20`\n → Will Ala Stanford receive between 25% and 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pe spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO? overshooting How many launches will SpaceX have in? — 31¢ gap [Tech / IPO]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 12\",\"Δ\":\"-54c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?: 80-90B\",\"Δ\":\"32c\"}\n- gap: -31\n- theme: Tech / IPO\n- triggerTicker: KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12\n- laggingTicker: 0x85af9bf0026541230161f98b45573034329fc6f20900311052346e80c8e325c9\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-sqdsww`\n → How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 12 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 5.3σ volume @ 25¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in November?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?: Above 0.5%\n- price: 25\n- residualVr: 5.291\n- vr: 5.659\n- volume24h: 619.02\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-kyzug2`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5`\n\n## [residual] 4.8σ volume @ 25¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%\n- price: 25\n- residualVr: 4.838\n- vr: 5.206\n- volume24h: 4684.7\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afde`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n\n## [divergence] What will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN… overshooting Dogecoin price? — 24¢ gap [Crypto]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Dogecoin price on May 22, 2026?: $0.095 or above\",\"Δ\":\"-34c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $180\",\"Δ\":\"60c\"}\n- gap: -24\n- theme: Crypto\n- triggerTicker: KXDOGED-26MAY2217-T0.0949999\n- laggingTicker: 0x0bb0c5e9d740346f3173f97ad462221fb4521b35ccc1bb3ae199d34ce31d3e93\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ej0ti7`\n → Dogecoin price on May 22, 2026?: $0.095 or above spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 4.3σ volume @ 44¢ — CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.2\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in May?: Above 0.2%\n- price: 44\n- residualVr: 4.266\n- vr: 4.634\n- volume24h: 830.56\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ermc7k`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.2`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.2`\n\n## [consensus_break] What will be the top AI model this month?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXTOPMODEL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXTOPMODEL-26MAY23-CLAU\",\"title\":\"What will be the top AI model this month?: claude-opus-4-6\",\"price\":5},{\"ticker\":\"KXTOPMODEL-26MAY23-CLAUT\",\"title\":\"What will be t...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ufrmu0`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALD26-NGRO\",\"title\":\"Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic nominee for SD-AL?: Nikki Gronli\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will J...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] South Carolina Democratic Senate Primary Win…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: 96042\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xbdfa967a35911cb4a847488050f31f2d69e272aff65aa6bf53dd87b90c01e7ac\",\"title\":\"South Carolina Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Catherine Fleming Bruce\",\"price\":4},{\"t...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6xbk7u`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 13h — US housing starts for April be above 1.500M?\n- ticker: KXHOUSINGSTART-26MAY21-T1.500\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will US housing starts for April 2026 be above 1.500M?: Above 1.500M\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 13\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXHOUSINGSTART-26MAY21-T1.500`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXHOUSINGSTART-26MAY21-T1.500`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 221 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 477 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1108 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 620 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3216 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1079 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 296 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 356 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4013ms", |
