| "markdown": "# World (2026-05-23 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 51 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth +0.41 | Activity 71\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] margin of victory for Republicans in … overshooting Democratic win the House race for NY-… — 95¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Democratic win the House race for NY-09?: Democratic party\",\"Δ\":\"-80c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Alabama's 5th District House e\",\"Δ\":\"74c\"}\n- gap: -95\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-NY09-26-D\n- laggingTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-AL05R-P10\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-z0nxaj`\n → Will Democratic win the House race for NY-09?: Democratic party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 10.5σ volume @ 75¢ — federal funds rate be above 3.50%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T3.50\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.50%\n- price: 75\n- residualVr: 10.54\n- vr: 10.748\n- volume24h: 547.83\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om3y0x`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n\n## [regime_shift] activity spike, conviction rising: GeoRisk 48→0 (-48), Activity 33→71 (+38)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-23T11:45:00.154Z\n- driver: geopolitics\n- primaryMover: GeoRisk\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"GeoRisk\",\"from\":48,\"to\":0,\"Δ\":-48,\"unit\":\"\"},{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":33,\"to\":71,\"Δ\":38,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":45,\"geoRisk\":48,\"breadth\":0.41,\"activity\":33}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":51,\"geoRisk\":0,\"breadth\":0.41,\"activity\":71}\n → drill into geopolitics · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/geopolitics`\n → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [consensus_break] #1 Show on Netflix have at least 18 million …: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26MAY25-12\",\"title\":\"Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 12 million views?: At least 12 million\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-9o0kg9`\n\n## [consensus_break] Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coa…: 5 markets deeply split (σ=45¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: KXJETFUEL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXJETFUEL-26MAY27-T4.00\",\"title\":\"Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.00?: ...\n- dispersion: 45\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xz92a3`\n\n## [consensus_break] New York Governor Republican Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 97465\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x031d44b0c31fb5c8a50eee6598439a41b66a4fbf0006ace729194a2fab4e1500\",\"title\":\"New York Governor Republican Primary Winner: Pat Hahn\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0x142eb6d13...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6xca7y`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 21h — Bitcoin price range?\n- ticker: KXBTC-26MAY2417-B75875\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Bitcoin price range on May 24, 2026?: $75,750 to 75,999.99\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 21\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXBTC-26MAY2417-B75875`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXBTC-26MAY2417-B75875`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 21h — Bitcoin price range?\n- ticker: KXBTC-26MAY2417-B77375\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Bitcoin price range on May 24, 2026?: $77,250 to 77,499.99\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 21\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXBTC-26MAY2417-B77375`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXBTC-26MAY2417-B77375`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 21h — Bitcoin price?\n- ticker: KXBTCD-26MAY2417-T74749.99\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Bitcoin price on May 24, 2026?: $74,750 or above\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 21\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXBTCD-26MAY2417-T74749.99`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXBTCD-26MAY2417-T74749.99`\n\n## [residual] 1.1σ volume @ 6¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.4\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.4%\n- price: 6\n- residualVr: 1.091\n- vr: 1.656\n- volume24h: 529.47\n → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-f2veti`\n → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.4`\n → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.4`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 223 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 383 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1071 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 607 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2937 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1023 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 297 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 231 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4486ms", |
