| "markdown": "# World (2026-05-25 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 50 | GeoRisk 15 | Breadth +0.44 | Activity 67\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] UT-03 House Election Winner lagging Democratic win the House race for MI-… — 52¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Democratic win the House race for MI-13?: Democratic party\",\"Δ\":\"82c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"UT-03 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"13c\"}\n- gap: 52\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-MI13-26-D\n- laggingTicker: 0x9f449f3731d4ccd04392dd4ad859e346f1b66fcd2e76f52b26824d45101bde1e\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-2x3beb`\n → Will Democratic win the House race for MI-13?: Democratic party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coa…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXJETFUEL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXJETFUEL-26MAY27-T4.00\",\"title\":\"Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.00?: ...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xz92a3`\n\n## [consensus_break] How many corporate bankruptcies will there b…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBANKRUPTCY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBANKRUPTCY-26-550\",\"title\":\"How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 550\",\"price\":93},{\"ticker\":\"KXBANKRUPTCY-26-600\",\"title\":\"How many corp...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-mowfkt`\n\n## [consensus_break] Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 97496\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x44277993368a2f9011cabfbee8894c7d71d3aad29c3049a8651c4d15db92ee04\",\"title\":\"Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Constance N. Johnson\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6xcaak`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.475\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.475?: Above 4.475\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.475`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.475`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.515\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.515?: Above 4.515\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.515`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.515`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.520\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.520?: Above 4.520\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.520`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY26-4.520`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 100→67 (-33)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-25T11:30:00.084Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":100,\"to\":67,\"Δ\":-33,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":42,\"geoRisk\":18,\"breadth\":0.39,\"activity\":100}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":50,\"geoRisk\":15,\"breadth\":0.44,\"activity\":67}\n → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 1h @ 1¢ — Who will win the governorship in California?\n- ticker: KXGOVCA-26-KPOR\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Who will win the governorship in California?: Katie Porter\n- listedAgoHours: 1\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 36118\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXGOVCA-26-KPOR`\n → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 19h @ 4¢ — __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day?\n- ticker: 0xd302682785cc2541dc5f4cc4af51fa881667b603d4ee27f432ca57772ce5e8b2\n- venue: polymarket\n- title: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+\n- listedAgoHours: 19\n- currentPrice: 4\n- volume24h: 106905\n- note: listedAt = Polymarket createdAt\n → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0xd302682785cc2541dc5f4cc4af51fa881667b603d4ee27f432ca57772ce5e8b2`\n → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 251 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 469 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1109 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 616 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2986 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1070 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 305 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 240 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms", |
