| "markdown": "# World (2026-06-01 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 48 | GeoRisk 22 | Breadth +0.42 | Activity 67\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Democrats win the House race for IN-0… lagging Republican win the House race for OH-… — 50¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Republican win the House race for OH-14?: David Joyce\",\"Δ\":\"72c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Democrats win the House race for IN-07?: André Carson\",\"Δ\":\"7c\"}\n- gap: 50\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-OH14-26-R\n- laggingTicker: KXHOUSEIN7-26-D\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-tz1cmg`\n → Will Republican win the House race for OH-14?: David Joyce spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Largest IPO by market cap in? lagging Elon Musk's net worth for June be abo… — 37¢ gap [Tech / IPO]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $770 billion?: Above $770 billion\",\"Δ\":\"69c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?: SpaceX\",\"Δ\":\"68c\"}\n- gap: 37\n- theme: Tech / IPO\n- triggerTicker: KXMUSKNW-26JUN30-T770\n- laggingTicker: 0x858b982b9ea15f0133c1ae8c53a5b7bbdf67891eca22dc8d726604dbbc5a8c5a\n → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-8mzpcw`\n → Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $770 billion?: Above $770 billion spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [regime_shift] activity spike, conviction rising: Activity 17→67 (+50)\n- baselineAt: 2026-06-01T11:45:00.083Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":17,\"to\":67,\"Δ\":50,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":48,\"geoRisk\":16,\"breadth\":0.37,\"activity\":17}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":48,\"geoRisk\":22,\"breadth\":0.42,\"activity\":67}\n → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [consensus_break] CA-13 Primary Winners: 4 markets deeply split (σ=47¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 403707\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x0d4d2eab8ac6b7da57d89bd5b3c80d04fd7f32bf11ebd6018cfd704b9b2ef335\",\"title\":\"CA-13 Primary Winners: Kevin Lincoln II\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"0x13bf01871ebf937568d118...\n- dispersion: 47\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ynpdge`\n\n## [consensus_break] CA-41 Primary Winners: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 403741\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x1f13b05cb58a6cba3a829bec71a9dbe7dc3749a9945389b03197bf02af65da32\",\"title\":\"CA-41 Primary Winners: Hector De La Torre\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0xa52792b5a97934995dfa1...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ynpdjo`\n\n## [consensus_break] #2 Global Netflix Show?: Nemesis: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL2\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL2-26JUN01-DEV\",\"title\":\"#2 Global Netflix Show on Jun 1, 2026?: Devil May Cry: Season 2\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL2-26JUN0...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xolx7c`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — #2 Global Netflix Show?: The Boroughs\n- ticker: KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL2-26JUN01-THE\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: #2 Global Netflix Show on Jun 1, 2026?: The Boroughs: Season 1\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL2-26JUN01-THE`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL2-26JUN01-THE`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 4h — any contestant perform as a new bombshell in…\n- ticker: KXLIUKBOMBSHELL-26JUN01-1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will any contestant perform as a new bombshell in Love Island UK S13E1?: a new bombshell\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXLIUKBOMBSHELL-26JUN01-1`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXLIUKBOMBSHELL-26JUN01-1`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 92% no in 9h — Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for May b…\n- ticker: KXEZCPIYOYF-26JUN02-T2.8\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for May 2026 be above 2.8%?: Above 2.8%\n- price: 8\n- settlesInHours: 9\n- impliedProbability: 0.08\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXEZCPIYOYF-26JUN02-T2.8`\n → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXEZCPIYOYF-26JUN02-T2.8`\n\n## [novel] NEW 2h @ 1¢ — Who will win California's top-two primary for gov…\n- ticker: KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-CBIA\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?: Chad Bianco\n- listedAgoHours: 2\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 220489\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-CBIA`\n → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 263 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 491 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1089 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 659 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3266 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1079 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 306 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 260 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 3177ms", |
