Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-21

2026-05-21.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-21",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-21T23:50:49.307Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 54,
+    "geoRisk": 17,
+    "breadth": 0.48,
+    "activity": 29
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 737.65,
+      "changePct": -1.39
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 706.4,
+      "changePct": -1.79
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 276.72,
+      "changePct": -2.65
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.06,
+      "changePct": 1.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.08,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 93.5,
+      "changePct": -0.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 83.66,
+      "changePct": -1.51
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.57,
+      "changePct": -0.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 417.33,
+      "changePct": -2.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 147.99,
+      "changePct": 4.13
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.33,
+      "changePct": 1.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 38.17,
+      "changePct": -4.64
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.77,
+      "changePct": 0.58
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.21,
+      "changePct": -0.42
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 59.43,
+      "changePct": 2.32
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 65.05,
+      "changePct": -3.53
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.79,
+      "changePct": -2.9
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.01,
+      "changePct": -3.33
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Brad Raffensperger receive between 15… overshooting OR-05 House Election Winner — 51¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in M… lagging Tesla robotaxi be offered to the gene… — 34¢ gap [Tech / IPO]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "World GDP Growth lagging legislation that provides multi-year … — 29¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-21 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 54 | GeoRisk 17 | Breadth +0.48 | Activity 29\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Brad Raffensperger receive between 15… overshooting OR-05 House Election Winner — 51¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"OR-05 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"-32c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Brad Raffensperger receive between 15% and 20% of the popular vote in the f\",\"Δ\":\"65c\"}\n- gap: -51\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: 0x07db4ca35f28bc5ca53a161794ab7b6aad0f3f4b32786fd2c3ca3070cbd31d23\n- laggingTicker: KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVGANOMR26BRBRAF-17\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-fsg4un`\n  → OR-05 House Election Winner: Republican Party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 9.1σ volume @ 40¢ — federal funds rate be above 3.50%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T3.50\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.50%\n- price: 40\n- residualVr: 9.126\n- vr: 9.282\n- volume24h: 652\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om3y0x`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n\n## [divergence] What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in M… lagging Tesla robotaxi be offered to the gene… — 34¢ gap [Tech / IPO]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Florida before Jan 1, 20\",\"Δ\":\"67c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $450\",\"Δ\":\"18c\"}\n- gap: 34\n- theme: Tech / IPO\n- triggerTicker: KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-FL\n- laggingTicker: 0x73c0d9bf5c00557e7df6a1103130b254a549042d199744c51182cc8fe4019f05\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-58l04f`\n  → Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Florida before Jan 1, 20 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] World GDP Growth lagging legislation that provides multi-year … — 29¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will legislation that provides multi-year reauthorization and funding for federa\",\"Δ\":\"58c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"2026 World GDP Growth: ≤2.9%\",\"Δ\":\"28c\"}\n- gap: 29\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: KXBILLS-SURF\n- laggingTicker: 0xa3833fb4962f96f7232768080bdd927746ac897d4bfa5f9a0ffbac9c05be7be5\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ctji7b`\n  → Will legislation that provides multi-year reauthorization and funding for federa spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 3.6σ volume @ 54¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%\n- price: 54\n- residualVr: 3.579\n- vr: 4.003\n- volume24h: 1179.61\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afde`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n\n## [consensus_break] What will be the top AI model this month?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXTOPMODEL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXTOPMODEL-26MAY23-CLAU\",\"title\":\"What will be the top AI model this month?: claude-opus-4-6\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXTOPMODEL-26MAY23-CLAUT\",\"title\":\"What will be t...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ufrmu0`\n\n## [consensus_break] Bank of Mexico Decision in June: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: 314452\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x2f1db759c6a4f4b67b73374755ecb50ca71a8b549a216881b0bd4581f8c6b403\",\"title\":\"Bank of Mexico Decision in June: Decrease\",\"price\":5},{\"ticker\":\"0x7fc2ef7c733fb853dc324...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-y784j6`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALD26-NGRO\",\"title\":\"Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic nominee for SD-AL?: Nikki Gronli\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will J...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 6h — Germany GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 be above …\n- ticker: KXDEGDPQOQF-26MAY22-T-0.0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above -0.0%?: Above -0.0%\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 6\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXDEGDPQOQF-26MAY22-T-0.0`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXDEGDPQOQF-26MAY22-T-0.0`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 6h — Germany GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 be above …\n- ticker: KXDEGDPQOQF-26MAY22-T-0.1\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1%\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 6\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXDEGDPQOQF-26MAY22-T-0.1`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXDEGDPQOQF-26MAY22-T-0.1`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 224 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 381 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1107 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 626 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3215 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 890 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 294 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 262 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 3397ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1832
+}