Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-13

2026-05-13.json

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-13",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-13T23:50:17.489Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 37,
+    "geoRisk": 0,
+    "breadth": 0.52,
+    "activity": 50
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 737.48,
+      "changePct": -0.2
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 706.1,
+      "changePct": -1.06
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 282.33,
+      "changePct": -1.06
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 26.86,
+      "changePct": -2.08
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.17,
+      "changePct": -0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.32,
+      "changePct": -0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85,
+      "changePct": -0.67
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.82,
+      "changePct": -0.23
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 432.38,
+      "changePct": -0.55
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 144.35,
+      "changePct": 3.85
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.9,
+      "changePct": -2.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 40.42,
+      "changePct": 2.64
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.45,
+      "changePct": 0.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.34,
+      "changePct": -0.3
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 57.57,
+      "changePct": 0.68
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 65.85,
+      "changePct": -3.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 45.72,
+      "changePct": -1.53
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.49,
+      "changePct": -2.43
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "UK unemployment rate for March be abo… overshooting Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash f… — 69¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at… overshooting rate of core CPI inflation be above 2… — 25¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-13 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 35 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth +0.52 | Activity 67\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] UK unemployment rate for March be abo… overshooting Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash f… — 69¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%\",\"Δ\":\"56c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.6%?: Above 4.6%\",\"Δ\":\"90c\"}\n- gap: -69\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: KXEZGDPQOQF-26JUN05-T0.0\n- laggingTicker: KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T4.6\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-u35p9t`\n  → Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 9.8σ volume @ 95¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.9%\n- price: 95\n- residualVr: 9.776\n- vr: 9.911\n- volume24h: 1428.08\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-f2ve2y`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9`\n\n## [residual] 6.2σ volume @ 28¢ — CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.3\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in May?: Above 0.3%\n- price: 28\n- residualVr: 6.234\n- vr: 6.369\n- volume24h: 504.27\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ermc7l`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.3`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPICORE-26MAY-T0.3`\n\n## [residual] 5.3σ volume @ 7¢ — rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in April?\n- ticker: KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in April 2026?: Above 0.3%\n- price: 7\n- residualVr: 5.321\n- vr: 6.188\n- volume24h: 5182.37\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-hyf4gt`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3`\n\n## [divergence] Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at… overshooting rate of core CPI inflation be above 2… — 25¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 20\",\"Δ\":\"-31c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?: Fed ma\",\"Δ\":\"90c\"}\n- gap: -25\n- theme: Fed / monetary policy\n- triggerTicker: KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.9\n- laggingTicker: KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H0\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-otu1ub`\n  → Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 20 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Italy inflation rate YoY for April be above …: 8 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXITCPIPREL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.4\",\"title\":\"Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T2.5\",\"title\":...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ji4oc6`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-MJAC\",\"title\":\"Will Marty Jackley be the Republican nominee for SD-AL?: Marty Jackley\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [consensus_break] 2nd largest company end of May?: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: 385556\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x32039e312d108f4bc3f15bedf5e73edb9a728c9fd338497d0ca2d81c97afbbc4\",\"title\":\"2nd largest company end of May?: NVIDIA\",\"price\":4},{\"ticker\":\"0xefa10d84a527e0f0dd67010...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-yb3cf1`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY14-4.475\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.475?: Above 4.475\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY14-4.475`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY14-4.475`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY14-4.480\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.480?: Above 4.480\n- price: 93\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.93\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY14-4.480`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY14-4.480`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 212 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 403 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1141 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 640 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2899 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1077 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 289 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 384 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 0ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1773
+}