Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-19

2026-05-19.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-19",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-19T23:50:30.478Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 48,
+    "geoRisk": 22,
+    "breadth": 0.54,
+    "activity": 14
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 737.65,
+      "changePct": -1.39
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 706.4,
+      "changePct": -1.79
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 276.72,
+      "changePct": -2.65
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.06,
+      "changePct": 1.35
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.08,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 93.5,
+      "changePct": -0.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 83.66,
+      "changePct": -1.51
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.57,
+      "changePct": -0.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 417.33,
+      "changePct": -2.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 147.99,
+      "changePct": 4.13
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.33,
+      "changePct": 1.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 38.17,
+      "changePct": -4.64
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.77,
+      "changePct": 0.58
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.21,
+      "changePct": -0.42
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 59.43,
+      "changePct": 2.32
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 65.05,
+      "changePct": -3.53
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.79,
+      "changePct": -2.9
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.01,
+      "changePct": -3.33
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Australia unemployment rate in Apr? overshooting Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash f… — 67¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "UT-03 House Election Winner overshooting Burt Jones finish 2nd in the first ro… — 45¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer? overshooting Arthur be categorized as a hurricane … — 37¢ gap [Climate / weather]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-19 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 48 | GeoRisk 22 | Breadth +0.54 | Activity 14\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Australia unemployment rate in Apr? overshooting Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash f… — 67¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%\",\"Δ\":\"78c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 3.7%\",\"Δ\":\"94c\"}\n- gap: -67\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: KXEZGDPQOQF-26JUN05-T0.0\n- laggingTicker: KXUE-AUS26APRIL-3.7\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-meidao`\n  → Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 9.3σ volume @ 24¢ — federal funds rate be above 3.50%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T3.50\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.50%\n- price: 24\n- residualVr: 9.262\n- vr: 9.379\n- volume24h: 575\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om3y0x`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n\n## [divergence] UT-03 House Election Winner overshooting Burt Jones finish 2nd in the first ro… — 45¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Burt Jones finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gub\",\"Δ\":\"-52c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"UT-03 House Election Winner: Democratic Party\",\"Δ\":\"42c\"}\n- gap: -45\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXPRIMARYPLACE-GOVGANOMR26-2-BJON\n- laggingTicker: 0x9f449f3731d4ccd04392dd4ad859e346f1b66fcd2e76f52b26824d45101bde1e\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xc3azg`\n  → Will Burt Jones finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gub spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer? overshooting Arthur be categorized as a hurricane … — 37¢ gap [Climate / weather]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Arthur be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Arthur\",\"Δ\":\"-40c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?: <4m sq km\",\"Δ\":\"55c\"}\n- gap: -37\n- theme: Climate / weather\n- triggerTicker: KXHURRICANENAMES-26DEC01ATL-ART\n- laggingTicker: 0xa776ef6b16f785ca718dfaf177743793acda4ee06c721253b868831f5089590c\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-59hw48`\n  → Will Arthur be categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Arthur spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 3.7σ volume @ 14¢ — CPI rise more than 0.6% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?: Above 0.6%\n- price: 14\n- residualVr: 3.722\n- vr: 4.041\n- volume24h: 2966.31\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afdf`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6`\n\n## [consensus_break] Colorado Republican Senate Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: 80038\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x456a25be7a7ccfa16557f646c03bc62c3f062f44c612f7593d6adfb4af310a5e\",\"title\":\"Colorado Republican Senate Primary Winner: Dathan Jones\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0x7391df4...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6wnxom`\n\n## [consensus_break] PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 287013\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x2bfd24a798b164c430b5dd05603036226820016f971a6b0324fce3e23873d3a5\",\"title\":\"PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Bob Brooks\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"0xc02f19bd849a0fe806...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xu2w6w`\n\n## [consensus_break] Euro area inflation rate YoY for April be ab…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXEZCPIYOYF\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXEZCPIYOYF-26MAY20-T2.7\",\"title\":\"Will Euro area inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.7%?: Above 2.7%\",\"price\":95},{\"ticker\":\"KXEZCPIYOYF-26MAY20-T2.8\",\"tit...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-rw133a`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 6h — UK inflation rate YoY for April be above 1.9…\n- ticker: KXUKCPIYOY-26MAY20-T1.9\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will UK inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9%\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 6\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXUKCPIYOY-26MAY20-T1.9`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXUKCPIYOY-26MAY20-T1.9`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 6h — UK inflation rate YoY for April be above 2.0…\n- ticker: KXUKCPIYOY-26MAY20-T2.0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will UK inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 6\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXUKCPIYOY-26MAY20-T2.0`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXUKCPIYOY-26MAY20-T2.0`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 221 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 471 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1117 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 629 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3363 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1092 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 299 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 351 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4883ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1840
+}