Backfill world state snapshot for 2026-04-15

2026-04-15.json

@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-15",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-15T23:55:04.124Z",
+  "index": {
+    "breadth": 0.36,
+    "geoRisk": 13,
+    "activity": 100,
+    "disagreement": 43
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "price": 694.18,
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "changePct": 1.11
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 629.25,
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "changePct": 1.81
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 268.67,
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "changePct": 1.38
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 28.2,
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "changePct": -1.47
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 82.53,
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "changePct": 0.06
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 95.81,
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "changePct": 0.34
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 87.26,
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "changePct": 0.6
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 80.46,
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "changePct": 0.3
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 445.15,
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "changePct": 2.25
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 124.17,
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "changePct": -3.27
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 10.54,
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "changePct": -1.22
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 37.28,
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "changePct": 1.41
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 27.32,
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "changePct": -0.26
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 108.85,
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "changePct": 0.25
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 55.92,
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "changePct": -2.14
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 62.19,
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "changePct": 1.8
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 42.02,
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "changePct": 1.2
+    },
+    {
+      "price": 18.86,
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "changePct": 2.84
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling",
+      "implication": "Market uncertainty on energy direction — watch for resolution catalyst",
+      "affectedTickers": [
+        "USO",
+        "KXNATGASMON-26APR3017-T1.799",
+        "KXNATGASMON-26APR3017-T1.799"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Stocks and gold both up (SPY +1.11%, GLD +2.25%) — unusual risk-on + haven bid",
+      "implication": "Mixed regime signal — liquidity-driven rally or inflation hedge. Watch for reversal.",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Equity-oil divergence: SPY +1.11% vs Oil -3.27%",
+      "implication": "Supply shock vs demand story — check if oil move is supply-driven or demand-driven.",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World — Apr 15, 2026\nRegime: Unusual: stocks and gold both up — mixed macro signals\n\nSF Index v2: Disagree 43/100 | GeoRisk 13/100 | Breadth +0.36 | Activity 100/100\n\nMarkets: SPY $694.18 (+1.11%) | QQQ $629.25 (+1.81%) | IWM $268.67 (+1.38%) | VIXY $28.20 (-1.47%) | SHY $82.53 (+0.06%) | IEF $95.81 (+0.34%) | TLT $87.26 (+0.6%) | HYG $80.46 (+0.3%) | GLD $445.15 (+2.25%) | USO $124.17 (-3.27%) | UNG $10.54 (-1.22%) | CPER $37.28 (+1.41%) | UUP $27.32 (-0.26%) | FXE $108.85 (+0.25%) | XLE $55.92 (-2.14%) | EEM $62.19 (+1.8%) | IBIT $42.02 (+1.2%) | ETHE $18.86 (+2.84%)\n\n## Opportunities\n- [activity] Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28,: 67c (residualVR 23.5, IAR 0.8/h, v:$142) [kalshi]\n- [contagion] Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?: Fed: lagging behind Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25 (31c gap) [Fed / monetary policy]\n- [yield] Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $120: 34c (IY 945%, τ 75d, v:$36k) [polymarket]\n- [activity] Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.6%: 58c (residualVR 7.3, IAR 0.5/h, v:$250) [kalshi]\n- [contagion] Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?: Fed ma: lagging behind Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25 (31c gap) [Fed / monetary policy]\n\n## Movers /24h\n- Will Alexia Jayy win The Voice Season 29?: 5c (-92c/24h, v:$13k expires:Apr30) [kalshi]\n- Bitcoin price  on Apr 15, 2026?: 84c (+78c/24h, v:$16k expires:Apr15) [kalshi]\n- 11+ corners?: 4c (-77c/24h, v:$12k expires:Apr15) [kalshi]\n\nAnchors: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?: Apr 4c | Peru Presidential Election Winner: Rafae 17c | Peru Presidential Election Winner: Keiko 65c | Peru Presidential Election Winner: Rober 19c | Peru Presidential Election First Round:  58c | Rangers vs. Lightning 62c\n\n## Contagion\n- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?: Fed  lagging behind Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?: Cut 25 (31c gap) [theme:Fed / monetary policy]\n- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?: Fed ma lagging behind Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?: Cut 25 (31c gap) [theme:Fed / monetary policy]\n- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?: Fed  lagging behind Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the June 2026 Monetary Policy Me (31c gap) [theme:Fed / monetary policy]\n- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.3%?: Above 1.3% overreacting to Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9% (68c gap) [event:KXFRCPIPREL-26APR30]\n- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.4%?: Above 1.4% overreacting to Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9% (68c gap) [event:KXFRCPIPREL-26APR30]\n\n## Divergences\n- Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling\n  Market uncertainty on energy direction — watch for resolution catalyst\n- Stocks and gold both up (SPY +1.11%, GLD +2.25%) — unusual risk-on + haven bid\n  Mixed regime signal — liquidity-driven rally or inflation hedge. Watch for reversal.\n- Equity-oil divergence: SPY +1.11% vs Oil -3.27%\n  Supply shock vs demand story — check if oil move is supply-driven or demand-driven.\n\n---\nSource: SimpleFunctions — 46418 markets, calibrated by real money | simplefunctions.dev\nNext: inspect any ticker above → GET /api/agent/inspect/{ticker} (returns suggestion + pre-filled actions)\nMore: /api/public/ideas | /api/public/screen | /api/public/contagion\nOpinions: /api/public/theses (analyst thesis edges — not included in opportunities)\nSections: ?include=legislative (policy markets + bill status) | ?include=contagion (sibling gaps)",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 975,
+  "backfilled": true
+}