Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-26

2026-05-26.json

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-26",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-26T23:50:28.281Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 48,
+    "geoRisk": 18,
+    "breadth": 0.46,
+    "activity": 33
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 745.04,
+      "changePct": 0.27
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 716.77,
+      "changePct": 0.11
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 285.27,
+      "changePct": 0.95
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 25.45,
+      "changePct": 0.69
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.11,
+      "changePct": -0.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 93.88,
+      "changePct": 0.07
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 84.67,
+      "changePct": 0.49
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 79.92,
+      "changePct": -0.01
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 413.65,
+      "changePct": -0.78
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 141.93,
+      "changePct": -1.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.98,
+      "changePct": -3.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 38.9,
+      "changePct": 0.83
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.77,
+      "changePct": 0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.11,
+      "changePct": -0.12
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 59.45,
+      "changePct": 0.52
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 65.93,
+      "changePct": -0.15
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 43.06,
+      "changePct": -2.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 16.72,
+      "changePct": -3.63
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "margin of victory for Democrats in th… overshooting Republican win the House race for OK-… — 71¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-26 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 48 | GeoRisk 18 | Breadth +0.46 | Activity 33\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] margin of victory for Democrats in th… overshooting Republican win the House race for OK-… — 71¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Republican win the House race for OK-04?: Republican party\",\"Δ\":\"-70c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Virginia's 3rd District House el\",\"Δ\":\"53c\"}\n- gap: -71\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-OK04-26-R\n- laggingTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-VA03D-P32\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-2rcp8d`\n  → Will Republican win the House race for OK-04?: Republican party spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 97496\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x44277993368a2f9011cabfbee8894c7d71d3aad29c3049a8651c4d15db92ee04\",\"title\":\"Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Constance N. Johnson\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6xcaak`\n\n## [consensus_break] How many corporate bankruptcies will there b…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBANKRUPTCY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBANKRUPTCY-26-550\",\"title\":\"How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 550\",\"price\":93},{\"ticker\":\"KXBANKRUPTCY-26-600\",\"title\":\"How many corp...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-mowfkt`\n\n## [consensus_break] James Bialota be the Republican nominee for …: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXSDPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALD26-NGRO\",\"title\":\"Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic nominee for SD-AL?: Nikki Gronli\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXSDPRIMARY-ALR26-JBIA\",\"title\":\"Will J...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-jf3zpp`\n\n## [residual] 3.1σ volume @ 24¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%\n- price: 24\n- residualVr: 3.114\n- vr: 3.981\n- volume24h: 4449.31\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afde`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY27-4.475\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.475?: Above 4.475\n- price: 9\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.09\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY27-4.475`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY27-4.475`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 17h — Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coa…\n- ticker: KXJETFUEL-26MAY27-T4.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.00?: Above 4.00ㅤ\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 17\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXJETFUEL-26MAY27-T4.00`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXJETFUEL-26MAY27-T4.00`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% yes in 17h — Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coa…\n- ticker: KXJETFUEL-26MAY27-T4.05\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.05ㅤ?: Above 4.05ㅤ\n- price: 94\n- settlesInHours: 17\n- impliedProbability: 0.94\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXJETFUEL-26MAY27-T4.05`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXJETFUEL-26MAY27-T4.05`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 57→33 (-24)\n- baselineAt: 2026-05-26T11:45:00.084Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":57,\"to\":33,\"Δ\":-24,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":47,\"geoRisk\":16,\"breadth\":0.48,\"activity\":57}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":48,\"geoRisk\":18,\"breadth\":0.46,\"activity\":33}\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 2h @ 2¢ — Ross Chastain be the Cracker Barrel 400 winner?\n- ticker: KXNASCARRACE-CRAB26-ROCH\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Ross Chastain be the Cracker Barrel 400 winner?: Ross Chastain\n- listedAgoHours: 2\n- currentPrice: 2\n- volume24h: 25000\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNASCARRACE-CRAB26-ROCH`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 252 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 472 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1120 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 638 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3194 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1026 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 306 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 244 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 5546ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1715
+}