Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-19

2026-04-19.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-19",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-19T23:50:23.347Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 48,
+    "geoRisk": 24,
+    "breadth": 0.23,
+    "activity": 86
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 710.26,
+      "changePct": 1.15
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 648.75,
+      "changePct": 1.46
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 275.61,
+      "changePct": 2.08
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 27.98,
+      "changePct": -1.13
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.63,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.91,
+      "changePct": 0.53
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 87.06,
+      "changePct": 0.97
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.63,
+      "changePct": 0.36
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 444.27,
+      "changePct": 1.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 116.49,
+      "changePct": -7.26
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.83,
+      "changePct": 0.28
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 37.3,
+      "changePct": 1.03
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.35,
+      "changePct": -0.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 108.63,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 54.9,
+      "changePct": -3.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 63.61,
+      "changePct": 1.88
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 43.86,
+      "changePct": 2.81
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 19.73,
+      "changePct": 2.95
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "min WTI front month settle price reac… lagging min WTI front month settle price reac… — 20¢ gap [Oil & energy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched ura… lagging Iran military action against ___? — 20¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...? lagging How many seats will United Russia win… — 17¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-19 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 48 | GeoRisk 24 | Breadth +0.23 | Activity 86\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [residual] 19.7σ volume @ 17¢ — federal funds rate be above 4.00%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27JAN-T4.00\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%\n- price: 17\n- residualVr: 19.717\n- vr: 20.368\n- volume24h: 658\n  → why moving? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-acupq1`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27JAN-T4.00`\n  → related · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27JAN-T4.00`\n\n## [divergence] min WTI front month settle price reac… lagging min WTI front month settle price reac… — 20¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Dec 31, 2026?: 74.99 \",\"Δ\":\"24c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80 by Apr 30, 2026?: 79.99 \",\"Δ\":\"8c\"}\n- gap: 20\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: KXWTIMIN-26DEC31-T75\n- laggingTicker: KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T80\n  → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-noa2x9`\n  → Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Dec 31, 2026?: 74.99  spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Iran agrees to surrender enriched ura… lagging Iran military action against ___? — 20¢ gap [Iran / Hormuz crisis]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Iran military action against ___ by April 30?: Jordan\",\"Δ\":\"20c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?: June 30\",\"Δ\":\"43c\"}\n- gap: 20\n- theme: Iran / Hormuz crisis\n- triggerTicker: 0x5bb0e552d6f091014a59af8bbe5b7e86ba2d0a4dcfcb509f0e66a48184e96519\n- laggingTicker: 0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead\n  → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gozfgs`\n  → Iran military action against ___ by April 30?: Jordan spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...? lagging How many seats will United Russia win… — 17¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?:\",\"Δ\":\"15c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?: April 30\",\"Δ\":\"24c\"}\n- gap: 17\n- theme: Ukraine / Russia conflict\n- triggerTicker: 0x430751274480232547064a75eb29ceead00b95cf3e21709911a147cfada04e16\n- laggingTicker: 0xfc0c49c13e6138335627e7a3f43ec891cfe6ab7a8abba1e960d2a87b1fe5274d\n  → why? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-al7t8g`\n  → How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?: spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET /api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: 79162\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x885af440160b32c882027f0ed610b6a9b311262a6a0518fa9529a050f078fad2\",\"title\":\"NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner: Hakeem Jeffries\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"0x545ce460563d3...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6w9ws4`\n\n## [consensus_break] Christi Jacobsen be the Republican nominee f…: 5 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 89¢)\n- seriesKey: KXMTPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXMTPRIMARY-02D26-BMIL\",\"title\":\"Will Brian Miller be the Democratic nominee for MT-02?: Brian Miller\",\"price\":91},{\"ticker\":\"KXMTPRIMARY-02D26-JBOY\",\"title\":\"Will J...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 89\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-knr7nb`\n\n## [consensus_break] PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: 232722\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0xc6867b3fa6b81bbb65f85a3a7302757624137a6c128b685e5a4645e1243d01ee\",\"title\":\"PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner: Janelle Stelson\",\"price\":94},{\"ticker\":\"0xead98c2f05aa5...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET /api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill iran · `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n  → why disagree? · `GET /api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xr8vi5`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR20-4.040\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?: Above 4.040\n- price: 93\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.93\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR20-4.040`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR20-4.040`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 13h — Canada inflation rate YoY for March be above…\n- ticker: KXCACPIYOY-26APR20-T1.9\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Canada inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9%\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 13\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCACPIYOY-26APR20-T1.9`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCACPIYOY-26APR20-T1.9`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 14h — Trump say \"Crypto / Bitcoin\"?\n- ticker: KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-CRYP\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Trump say \"Crypto / Bitcoin\" before Apr 20, 2026?: Crypto / Bitcoin\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 14\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-CRYP`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET /api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET /api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-CRYP`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 260 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 550 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1278 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 663 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2797 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1447 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 271 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 219 markets → `GET /api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: /api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4464ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1685
+}