Add world state snapshot for 2026-04-24

2026-04-24.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-04-24",
+  "timestamp": "2026-04-24T23:50:38.323Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 50,
+    "geoRisk": 24,
+    "breadth": 0.28,
+    "activity": 17
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 709.2,
+      "changePct": -0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 654.03,
+      "changePct": -0.32
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 275.17,
+      "changePct": -0.29
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 28.49,
+      "changePct": -0.11
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.48,
+      "changePct": -0.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 95.4,
+      "changePct": -0.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 86.56,
+      "changePct": -0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.37,
+      "changePct": -0.14
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 430.55,
+      "changePct": -1.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 135.35,
+      "changePct": 4.47
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 10.51,
+      "changePct": -3.89
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 36.99,
+      "changePct": -1.58
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.53,
+      "changePct": 0.16
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.92,
+      "changePct": -0.09
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 56.97,
+      "changePct": 0.77
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 62.25,
+      "changePct": -1.8
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 44.16,
+      "changePct": -0.72
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 18.78,
+      "changePct": -3.64
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "Bank of Israel Decision in May? lagging Bank of Israel Decision in May? — 34¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … lagging What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … — 23¢ gap [Oil & energy]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...? lagging Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka… — 20¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-04-24 23:40 UTC)\nRegime: Steady — no dominant macro signal\nSF Index: Disagree 50 | GeoRisk 24 | Breadth +0.28 | Activity 17\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] Bank of Israel Decision in May? lagging Bank of Israel Decision in May? — 34¢ gap [Middle East / Israel]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Bank of Israel Decision in May?: No Change\",\"Δ\":\"25c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Bank of Israel Decision in May?: Decrease\",\"Δ\":\"43c\"}\n- gap: 34\n- theme: Middle East / Israel\n- triggerTicker: 0x430c82b739789b90fd5f95929d03223f332808122327c8b69424793a5bad3daf\n- laggingTicker: 0x47381a493e81772f69e695d4de92695602eb353caa4a7a3bbf3b5df2ffa7ec74\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-fn2tys`\n  → Bank of Israel Decision in May?: No Change spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 100→17 (-83)\n- baselineAt: 2026-04-24T11:45:00.216Z\n- driver: \n- primaryMover: Activity\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":100,\"to\":17,\"Δ\":-83,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":42,\"geoRisk\":23,\"breadth\":0.34,\"activity\":100}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":50,\"geoRisk\":24,\"breadth\":0.28,\"activity\":17}\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [divergence] What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … lagging What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … — 23¢ gap [Oil & energy]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $100\",\"Δ\":\"25c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↓ $85\",\"Δ\":\"28c\"}\n- gap: 23\n- theme: Oil & energy\n- triggerTicker: 0x65414628f108533d689721c6b2576dd83da43644bcfd62506444f1591ef32c31\n- laggingTicker: 0x0f9ca7dcd30c615e67b73544ef681379e0b842bd83f21b1984b089f22c7d9973\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-vxuhsf`\n  → What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $100 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...? lagging Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka… — 20¢ gap [Ukraine / Russia conflict]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?: May 31\",\"Δ\":\"24c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?: April 30\",\"Δ\":\"19c\"}\n- gap: 20\n- theme: Ukraine / Russia conflict\n- triggerTicker: 0x50544b83110aca59acedbd292a395140b90caddff597c96ce0f1b5614df6e6bf\n- laggingTicker: 0xfc0c49c13e6138335627e7a3f43ec891cfe6ab7a8abba1e960d2a87b1fe5274d\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-rj777d`\n  → Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?: May 31 spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] BNB price?: 16 markets deeply split (σ=47¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXBNBD\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0117-T509.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on May 1, 2026?: $510 or above\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXBNBD-26MAY0117-T514.99\",\"title\":\"BNB price  on May 1, 2026?: $...\n- dispersion: 47\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-anghki`\n\n## [consensus_break] min WTI front month settle price reach?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: KXWTIMINM\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T86\",\"title\":\"Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $86 by Apr 30, 2026?: 85.99 or below\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":\"KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T8...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-imtev7`\n\n## [consensus_break] RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above?: 37 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXRTX5090MON\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0.293\",\"title\":\"Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.293 on Apr 30?: Above $0.29\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXRTX5090MON-26APR30-0....\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-qbdlvs`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — it **rain** in New York City on Friday?\n- ticker: KXRAINNYC-26APR24-T0\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will it **rain** in New York City on Friday?: Rain in NYC\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXRAINNYC-26APR24-T0`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXRAINNYC-26APR24-T0`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 93% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR25-4.070\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.070?: Above 4.070\n- price: 93\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.93\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR25-4.070`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR25-4.070`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 91% yes in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26APR25-4.075\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.075?: Above 4.075\n- price: 91\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.91\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26APR25-4.075`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26APR25-4.075`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 278 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 491 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1261 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 684 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 2833 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1400 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 323 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 282 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4721ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1801
+}