Add world state snapshot for 2026-09-25

2026-09-25.json

@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-09-25",
+  "timestamp": "2026-09-25T23:50:11.309Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 0,
+    "geoRisk": 0,
+    "breadth": 0.58,
+    "activity": 50
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 767.29,
+      "changePct": -0.12
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 739.53,
+      "changePct": -0.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 281.6,
+      "changePct": -0.15
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 16.88,
+      "changePct": 0.54
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 81.09,
+      "changePct": -0.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 89.65,
+      "changePct": -0.57
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 79.19,
+      "changePct": -1.58
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 77.99,
+      "changePct": -0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 390.94,
+      "changePct": -0.45
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 153.13,
+      "changePct": 2.57
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.44,
+      "changePct": 5.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 40.65,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 28.69,
+      "changePct": 0.14
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 104.99,
+      "changePct": -0.1
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 62.61,
+      "changePct": 0.37
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 67.22,
+      "changePct": -0.75
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 47.79,
+      "changePct": -0.13
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 21.65,
+      "changePct": 0.6
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-09-25 23:30 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 0 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth +0.58 | Activity 50\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Disagreement 59→0 (-59), Breadth -0.46→0.58 (+1.04), Activity 75→50 (-25)\n- baselineAt: 2026-09-25T11:45:00.064Z\n- driver: economy\n- primaryMover: Disagreement\n- moves: [{\"k\":\"Disagreement\",\"from\":59,\"to\":0,\"Δ\":-59,\"unit\":\"\"},{\"k\":\"Breadth\",\"from\":-0.46,\"to\":0.58,\"Δ\":1.04,\"unit\":\"\"},{\"k\":\"Activity\",\"from\":75,\"to\":50,\"Δ\":-25,\"unit\":\"\"}]\n- atBaseline: {\"disagreement\":59,\"geoRisk\":0,\"breadth\":-0.46,\"activity\":75}\n- now: {\"disagreement\":0,\"geoRisk\":0,\"breadth\":0.58,\"activity\":50}\n  → drill into economy · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy`\n  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Music Industry have above 1400000000 total U…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXTOTALALBEQUIV\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXTOTALALBEQUIV-26-1.1B\",\"title\":\"Will the Music Industry have above 1100000000 total USA Album Equivalent Units on Luminate in Jan 02, 2026 - Dec 31, 2026?: Above 1...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-e9uekf`\n\n## [consensus_break] Democratics win the Senate race in Alabama?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: SENATEAL\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"SENATEAL-26-D\",\"title\":\"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alabama?: Everett Wess\",\"price\":4},{\"ticker\":\"SENATEAL-26-R\",\"title\":\"Will Republicans win the Senate...\n- dispersion: 46\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn860`\n\n## [consensus_break] Carnival Corporation report Above 97.5 milli…: 10 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)\n- seriesKey: KXCCLA\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97000000.0\",\"title\":\"Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97 million\",\"price\":97},{\"ticker\":...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 94\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-angwmx`\n\n## [residual] 2.5σ volume @ 13¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T4.3\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in December 2026?: Above 4.3%\n- price: 13\n- residualVr: 2.517\n- vr: 3.082\n- volume24h: 1280\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-h26rew`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T4.3`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26DEC-T4.3`\n\n## [residual] 0.8σ volume @ 18¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year …\n- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T4.2\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 4.2%\n- price: 18\n- residualVr: 0.837\n- vr: 1.402\n- volume24h: 1293\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-yvktw4`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T4.2`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26NOV-T4.2`\n\n## [novel] NEW 10h @ 1¢ — Nikki Haley be the nominee for the Presidency for…\n- ticker: KXPRESNOMR-28-NH\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Nikki Haley be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Nikki Haley\n- listedAgoHours: 10\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 105734\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXPRESNOMR-28-NH`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 8h @ 1¢ — BTC price?\n- ticker: KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B32500\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: BTC price  on Jan 1, 2027?: 30,000 to 34,999.99\n- listedAgoHours: 8\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 4789\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B32500`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [novel] NEW 17h @ 1¢ — Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secre…\n- ticker: KXNEXTPRESSEC-29JAN21-SCHE\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?: Steven Cheung\n- listedAgoHours: 17\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 1700\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXNEXTPRESSEC-29JAN21-SCHE`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Ford Motor Company report Above 2 million u.…: 9 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXFA\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXFA-28JANUSSALES-1800000.0\",\"title\":\"Will Ford Motor Company report Above 1.8 million u.s. vehicle sales volume in 2026?: Above 1.8 million\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-xgg7xb`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 60 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 144 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 712 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 653 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 1801 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 306 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 73 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 124 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 2305ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1665
+}