Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-31

2026-05-31.json

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-31",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-31T23:50:28.553Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 51,
+    "geoRisk": 17,
+    "breadth": 0.36,
+    "activity": 17
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 755.95,
+      "changePct": 0.08
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 738.05,
+      "changePct": 0.32
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 290.62,
+      "changePct": -0.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 23.25,
+      "changePct": -1.69
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.3,
+      "changePct": 0.06
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.58,
+      "changePct": 0.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85.85,
+      "changePct": 0.15
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.33,
+      "changePct": 0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 417.07,
+      "changePct": 1.08
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 128.79,
+      "changePct": -1.78
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.9,
+      "changePct": -0.17
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 38.89,
+      "changePct": -0.41
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.67,
+      "changePct": -0.18
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.69,
+      "changePct": 0.19
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 56.34,
+      "changePct": -1.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 68.64,
+      "changePct": -0.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 41.7,
+      "changePct": 0.14
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 16.32,
+      "changePct": 0.12
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "MI-03 House Election Winner overshooting Who will win the next Kenyan Senate e… — 47¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 be a… lagging How many initial jobless claims will … — 30¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO? lagging Elon Musk visit the White House? — 23¢ gap [Tech / IPO]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-31 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 51 | GeoRisk 17 | Breadth +0.36 | Activity 17\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] MI-03 House Election Winner overshooting Who will win the next Kenyan Senate e… — 47¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Who will win the next Kenyan Senate election?: Coalition including ODM\",\"Δ\":\"-48c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"MI-03 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"40c\"}\n- gap: -47\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXKENYASENATE-27-ODM\n- laggingTicker: 0x5a9c199f5580fd145622bf822fdcab24c44f24cf3db997db3c6eaea3907578c1\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-m2g90w`\n  → Who will win the next Kenyan Senate election?: Coalition including ODM spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 be a… lagging How many initial jobless claims will … — 30¢ gap [US fiscal / recession]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending May 30, 2026?: At \",\"Δ\":\"55c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.8%?: Above 3.8%\",\"Δ\":\"49c\"}\n- gap: 30\n- theme: US fiscal / recession\n- triggerTicker: KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26JUN04-200000\n- laggingTicker: KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T3.8\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ojqz1v`\n  → How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending May 30, 2026?: At  spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [divergence] How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO? lagging Elon Musk visit the White House? — 23¢ gap [Tech / IPO]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Elon Musk visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Elon Musk\",\"Δ\":\"45c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?: 70-80B\",\"Δ\":\"33c\"}\n- gap: 23\n- theme: Tech / IPO\n- triggerTicker: KXWHVISIT-27-EMUS\n- laggingTicker: 0x40488748f5df0f3f8b797c967aef25d43d54a90488166d9ff9487a79ec5d8a94\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6mqrh8`\n  → Will Elon Musk visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Elon Musk spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [consensus_break] Who will place first in the primary for Nanc…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 89386\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x2e72b933a1daa2f2b76a8af990dc44fb3f3fe02c3b99084ed99b40835a2db0b8\",\"title\":\"Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?: Scot...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6wtqwp`\n\n## [consensus_break] Kathy Dolter be the Democratic nominee for I…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 90¢)\n- seriesKey: KXIAPRIMARY\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXIAPRIMARY-01R26-DPAU\",\"title\":\"Will David Pautsch be the Republican nominee for IA-01?: David Pautsch\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"KXIAPRIMARY-01R26-MMIL\",\"title\":\"Will ...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 90\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-is0mhy`\n\n## [consensus_break] NJ-07 Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)\n- seriesKey: 403379\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x4ae0b84027b1613cef79e1751bd5880b0cf1742c80efcfd155e8e4ce804b438f\",\"title\":\"NJ-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Brian Varela\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":\"0xd406b9c3f7ca699ca...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 91\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ynpanp`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 4h — any member of Congress be out as any member …\n- ticker: KXLEAVECONGRESS-26MAY\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in May 2026?: X\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXLEAVECONGRESS-26MAY`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXLEAVECONGRESS-26MAY`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — When will Ramp IPO?\n- ticker: KXIPORAMP-26JUN01\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: When will Ramp IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2026\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXIPORAMP-26JUN01`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXIPORAMP-26JUN01`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — Rain in Miami in May?\n- ticker: KXRAINMIAM-26MAY-6\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Rain in Miami in May 2026?: Above 6 inches\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXRAINMIAM-26MAY-6`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXRAINMIAM-26MAY-6`\n\n## [novel] NEW 1h @ 1¢ — anyone win the Colombian presidential election in…\n- ticker: KXCOLOMBIAPRES1R-26MAY31\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will anyone win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?: First-round winner\n- listedAgoHours: 1\n- currentPrice: 1\n- volume24h: 65981\n- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)\n  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCOLOMBIAPRES1R-26MAY31`\n  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 283 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 476 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1085 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 650 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3210 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 1053 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 347 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 261 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 4207ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1814
+}