# Plot figures for paper ##################### ## Useful functions ##################### require(maps) require(mapdata) # for hires world map require(maptools) require(rgdal) require(rgeos) require(raster) require(data.table) require(beanplot) require(RColorBrewer) require(lme4) require(ggsci) # colors for Fig. 4 se <- function(x,na.rm=FALSE){ # standard error if(!na.rm){ return(sd(x, na.rm=FALSE)/sqrt(length(x))) } if(na.rm){ return(sd(x, na.rm=TRUE)/sqrt(sum(!is.na(x)))) } } # Function to plot color bar # from https://stackoverflow.com/questions/9314658/colorbar-from-custom-colorramppalette color.bar <- function(lut, min, max=-min, nticks=11, ticks=seq(min, max, len=nticks), title='') { scale = (length(lut)-1)/(max-min) plot(c(0,10), c(min,max), type='n', bty='n', xaxt='n', xlab='', yaxt='n', ylab='', main=title) axis(4, ticks, las=1) for (i in 1:(length(lut)-1)) { y = (i-1)/scale + min rect(0,y,10,y+1/scale, col=lut[i], border=NA) } } ############################## # Useful quantities (for paper text) ############################## # number of species and projections presmap1 <- fread('temp/presmap_Atl_rcp26_2007-2020.csv.gz', drop = 1) presmap2 <- fread('temp/presmap_Pac_rcp26_2007-2020.csv.gz', drop = 1) biomap1 <- fread('temp/biomassmap_Atl_rcp26_2007-2020.csv.gz', drop = 1) biomap2 <- fread('temp/biomassmap_Pac_rcp26_2007-2020.csv.gz', drop = 1) nspp <- presmap1[, length(unique(spp))] + presmap2[, length(unique(spp))] + biomap1[, length(unique(spp))] + biomap2[, length(unique(spp))] nspp # number of species 8*2*4*nspp # number of projections (8 GCMs, 2 RCPs, 4 time periods for each species) rm(presmap1, presmap2, biomap1, biomap2) # number of mpas in each network networks <- fread('temp/wdpaturnbyMPAbymod.csv.gz', drop = 1) # MPA network descriptions networks[, length(unique(WDPA_PID)), by = network] ######################### ## Fig 1 Study regions maps ######################### # turnover statistics turn <- fread('output/turnover_by_CMSPgrid.csv', drop = 1) # region definitions regiongrid <- fread('output/region_grid.csv.gz', drop = 1) regiongrid[longrid > 0, longrid := longrid - 360] # convert to -360 to 0 for merging with turn regiongrid[longrid < 0, longrid2 := longrid + 360] # convert to 0 to 360 for plotting a continent-scale map # merge regions and turnover turn <- merge(turn, regiongrid, by = c('latgrid', 'longrid'), all.x = TRUE) # set regions and params for each regs <- c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf') cexs <- c(ebs = 0.3, goa = 0.3, bc = 0.5, wc = 0.35, gmex = 0.33, seus = 0.4, neus = 0.3, maritime = 0.25, newf = 0.13) regsnice = c('Eastern Bering Sea', 'Gulf of Alaska', 'British Columbia', 'West Coast U.S.', 'Gulf of Mexico', 'Southeast U.S.', 'Northeast U.S.', 'Maritimes', 'Newfoundland') regsniceabbrev = c('(EBS)', '(GoA)', '(BC)', '(WC)', '(GMex)', '(SEUS)', '(NEUS)', '(Mar)', '(Newf)') ylabs = c('Latitude (°N)', '', '', '', 'Latitude (°N)', '', '', 'Latitude (°N)', '') xlabs = c('', '', '', 'Longitude (°E)', '', '', 'Longitude (°E)', 'Longitude (°E)', 'Longitude (°E)') ylims = list(ebs = c(51,62.5), goa = c(54, 61), bc = c(48, 54), wc = c(32.2, 48.5), gmex = c(24,30.5), seus = c(25, 35.5), neus = c(35, 45), maritime = c(41, 52), newf = c(42, 62)) xlims = list(ebs = c(-179.5,-155), goa = c(-156, -133), bc = c(-136, -122), wc = c(-126.5, -117), gmex = c(-97.5,-81), seus = c(-82, -74), neus = c(-76.5, -66), maritime = c(-69, -53), newf = c(-68, -43)) pos <- c(ebs = 'right', goa = 'left', bc = 'left', wc = 'left', gmex = 'left', seus = 'right', neus = 'right', maritime = 'right', newf = 'left') bcol <- 'dark grey' # background color yfrac <- c(0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.05, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1) # fraction of plot from the bottom that the temperature ranges are written mfgs <- list(ebs = c(1,2), goa = c(1,3), bc = c(2,1), wc = c(1,4), gmex = c(2,2), seus = c(2,3), neus = c(3,1), maritime = c(3,2), newf = c(3,3)) # plot coordinates for each region cols <- brewer.pal(9, 'GnBu') colfun <- colorRamp(colors = cols) colpal <- colorRampPalette(colors = cols) #### plot map # quartz(width=8.7/2.54,height=6/2.54) #png(width=8.7/2.54, height=6/2.54, units = 'in', res = 300, file='figures/Fig1_study_regions.png') jpeg(width = 8.7/2.54, height = 6/2.54, file = 'figures/Fig1_study_regions.jpg', units = 'in', res = 1200, quality = 100) par(mai=c(0.15, 0.08, 0.15, 0.1), omi=c(0.15, 0.2, 0, 0), tck=-0.06, mgp=c(1.2,0.4,0), las=1, cex.main=0.5, cex.axis=0.5) layout(mat=matrix(c(1,2,3,5,4,6,7,5,8,9,10,11), byrow=TRUE, nrow=3)) # Add continent-scale map turn[!is.na(beta_sor), plot(1, 1, xlab='', ylab='', main='', xaxt='n', xlim = c(178,310), ylim = c(24, 62))] axis(1, mgp=c(1.2, 0.02, 0), at=c(200,250,300), labels=c(-160, -110, -60)) map('world2Hires', add=TRUE, xlim=c(170,320), col=bcol, lwd=0.2, resolution=0, fill=FALSE, wrap=TRUE) # annoying that turning fill=TRUE also draws big horizontal lines across the map turn[!is.na(beta_sor), points(longrid2, latgrid, col=rgb(colfun(beta_sor), maxColorValue = 255), pch=15, cex=0.1)] # Add each region for(i in 1:length(regs)){ cat(paste0(regs[i], ' ')) inds <- turn[, region==regs[i] & !is.na(beta_sor)] turn[inds, plot(longrid, latgrid, col = rgb(colfun(beta_sor), maxColorValue = 255), pch = 15, cex = cexs[i], xlab = '', ylab = '', xlim = xlims[[i]], ylim = ylims[[i]], main = paste(regsnice[i], '\n', regsniceabbrev[i], sep=''), xaxt='n')] axis(1, mgp=c(1.2, 0.02, 0)) map('worldHires',add=TRUE, col=bcol, fill=TRUE, border=FALSE, resolution=0) } mtext('Longitude (°E)', side = 1, outer = TRUE, cex = 0.5) mtext('Latitude (°N)', side = 2, outer = TRUE, cex = 0.5, las = 0, line = 0.7) # Add a color bar par(mgp=c(2,0.5,0), mai=c(0.1, 0.3, 0.1, 0.4), tcl=-0.1) color.bar(colpal(100), min = 0, max = 1, nticks = 5, title = 'Turnover') dev.off() #################################################################### # Fig 2 Compare the planning approaches against each climate projection #################################################################### goalsmetbymod1 <- fread('output/goalsmetbymod_hist_all.csv', drop = 1) goalsmetbymod2 <- fread('output/goalsmetbymod_2per_all.csv', drop = 1) goalsmetbymod1 <- goalsmetbymod1[modeltype == 'testing', ] # remove the planning projections goalsmetbymod2 <- goalsmetbymod2[modeltype == 'testing', ] # remove the planning projections setkey(goalsmetbymod1, 'region', 'rcp', 'model', 'year_range') setkey(goalsmetbymod2, 'region', 'rcp', 'model', 'year_range') goalsmetbymod1[, type := 'hist'] goalsmetbymod2[, type := '2per'] goalsmetbymod <- rbind(goalsmetbymod1, goalsmetbymod2) goalsmetbymod[, type := factor(type, levels = c('hist', '2per'))] # set order myregs <- c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf') regnames = c('Eastern Bering Sea', 'Gulf of Alaska', 'British Columbia', 'West Coast U.S.', 'Gulf of Mexico', 'Southeast U.S.', 'Northeast U.S.', 'Maritimes', 'Newfoundland') mods <- sort(unique(goalsmetbymod1$model)) rcps <- sort(unique(goalsmetbymod1$rcp)) # Statistics # goals met, mid-century or end-of-century (for text) goalsmetbymod[year_range == '2041-2060', .(mean = mean(pmetstrict), sd = sd(pmetstrict)), by = c('type')] # mean and se across models and goals goalsmetbymod[year_range == '2081-2100' & rcp == '26', .(mean = mean(pmetstrict), sd = sd(pmetstrict)), by = c('type')] # mean and se across models and goals goalsmetbymod[year_range == '2081-2100' & rcp == '85', .(mean = mean(pmetstrict), sd = sd(pmetstrict)), by = c('type')] # mean and se across models and goals # p(80% goals met), end-of-century (for text) goalsmetbymod[year_range == '2081-2100', .(prop = 1 - sum(pmetstrict > 0.7)/.N), by = c('type')] # goals met by region goalsmetbymod[year_range == '2081-2100', .(mean = mean(pmet), meanstrict = mean(pmetstrict)), by= c('region', 'type')] # mean (across rcps and GCMs) goalsmetbymod[year_range == '2081-2100', .(mean=mean(pmet), meanstrict = mean(pmetstrict)), by= c('region', 'model')][, .(mean = mean(mean), se = se(mean), meanstrict = mean(meanstrict), sestrict = se(meanstrict)), by = 'region'] # mean and se across models within regions # statistical test (for text) mod <- glmer(cbind(nmet, nmet/pmet - nmet) ~ type + (1|region/rcp/model/year_range), data=goalsmetbymod, family='binomial') summary(mod) nrow(goalsmetbymod) cc <- confint(mod, parm="beta_") # CIs. slow (30 sec) ctab <- cbind(est = fixef(mod), cc) # add estimates rtab <- exp(ctab) # to get odds ratios print(rtab, digits = 3) # print the odds ratios and CIs # Plot %goals met (hist and 2per solution) summ <- goalsmetbymod[, .(mid = mean(mid), mean = mean(pmetstrict), lb = mean(pmetstrict) - sd(pmetstrict), ub = mean(pmetstrict) + sd(pmetstrict)), by = c('year_range', 'region', 'type')] # mean and 95%ci across models and goals, for plotting colmat <- t(col2rgb(brewer.pal(6, 'PuOr'))) # dark red for histonly average, middle for lines, light red for CI. purple for 2per cols <- rgb(red=colmat[,1], green=colmat[,2], blue=colmat[,3], alpha=c(255, 90, 200, 200, 90, 255), maxColorValue=255) yaxts <- c('s', 'n', 'n', 's', 'n', 'n', 's', 'n', 'n') xaxts <- c('n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 's', 's', 's') outfile <- 'figures/Fig2_prioritizr_goalsmetbymod.pdf'; presentonly <- FALSE # outfile <- 'figures/prioritizr_goalsmetbymod_presentonly.pdf'; presentonly <- TRUE outfile ylims <- c(0, 1) # quartz(width=8.7/2.54, height=8.7/2.54) #png(width=8.7/2.54, height=8.7/2.54, units = 'in', res = 300, file=outfile) pdf(width=8.7/2.54, height=8.7/2.54, file=outfile) par(mfrow=c(3,3), mai=c(0.05, 0.05, 0.2, 0.05), omi=c(0.4,0.4,0,0), cex.main=0.8, cex.axis=0.6, tcl=-0.15, mgp=c(1.6,0.4,0), las = 1) for (i in 1:length(myregs)) { # for each region plot(0, 0, xlab='', ylab='', ylim=ylims, xlim=c(2030,2090), main=regnames[i], yaxt='n', xaxt='n') if(yaxts[i]=='s'){ axis(2, mgp=c(2,0.4,0)) } else { axis(2, labels=FALSE) } if(xaxts[i]=='s'){ axis(1, mgp=c(2,0.1,0)) } else { axis(1, labels=FALSE) } # plot histonly lines for(k in 1:length(mods)) { for(j in 1:length(rcps)) { goalsmetbymod1[model == mods[k] & rcp == rcps[j] & region==myregs[i] & year_range != '2007-2020', points(mid, pmetstrict, type='l', pch=16, lwd = 0.5, col=cols[2])] } } # plot 2per lines if(!presentonly){ for(k in 1:length(mods)){ for(j in 1:length(rcps)){ goalsmetbymod2[model == mods[k] & rcp == rcps[j] & region==myregs[i] & year_range != '2007-2020', points(mid, pmetstrict, type='l', pch=16, lwd = 0.5, col=cols[5])] } } } # plot polygons summ[region==myregs[i] & mid > 2014 & type == 'hist', polygon(c(mid, rev(mid)), c(lb, rev(ub)), col = cols[3], border = NA)] if(!presentonly) summ[region==myregs[i] & mid > 2014 & type == '2per', polygon(c(mid, rev(mid)), c(lb, rev(ub)), col = cols[4], border = NA)] # plot means summ[region==myregs[i] & mid > 2014 & type == 'hist', lines(mid, mean, col = cols[1], lwd = 2)] if(!presentonly) summ[region==myregs[i] & mid > 2014 & type == '2per', lines(mid, mean, col = cols[6], lwd = 2)] } mtext(side=1, text='Year', line=1.6, outer=TRUE) mtext(side=2, text='Fraction goals met', line=1.8, outer=TRUE, las = 0) dev.off() ################################### ## Fig 3 Compare area needed for each plan ################################### # Read in plans folder <- 'output/prioritizr_runs' runnames <- list.files(path = folder, pattern = 'solution') consplans <- vector('list', length(runnames)) for(i in 1:length(consplans)){ consplans[[i]] <- fread(paste0(folder, '/', runnames[i]), drop = 1) consplans[[i]]$region <- gsub('solution_|2per_|hist_|.csv', '', runnames[i]) consplans[[i]]$type <- gsub('solution_|_ebs|_goa|_bc|_wc|_gmex|_seus|_neus|_maritime|_newf|.csv', '', runnames[i]) } consplans <- rbindlist(consplans) regs <- c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf') # set the order # How many planning units? nrow(consplans) consplans[, .N, by = region] # per region # add a zone indicator to consplans consplans[ , zone := as.numeric(NA)] consplans[solution_1_conservation == 1 , zone := 1] consplans[solution_1_fishery == 1 , zone := 2] consplans[solution_1_energy == 1 , zone := 3] consplans[solution_1_conservation == 0 & solution_1_fishery == 0 & solution_1_energy == 0 , zone := 4] # Calculate fraction grid cells that change zone consplansw <- dcast(consplans, latgrid + longrid + region ~ type, value.var = 'zone') consplansw[, change := hist != `2per`] consplansw[, .(nchange = sum(change), ntot = .N, pchange = sum(change)/.N), by = region] # average in each region consplansw[, .(nchange = sum(change), ntot = .N, pchange = sum(change)/.N), by = region][, .(avepchange = mean(nchange/ntot), sd = sd(nchange/ntot))] # average proportion across regions # Make matrix of proportion in each zone in each region, for barplot mathist <- matrix(NA, nrow = 4, ncol=length(regs)) colnames(mathist) <- regs rownames(mathist) <- c('conservation', 'fishery', 'energy', 'free') mat2per <- mathist mathistraw <- mathist mat2perraw <- mathist for(i in 1:length(regs)){ for(j in 1:4){ mathist[j,i] <- consplansw[region == regs[i], sum(hist == j)/.N] mat2per[j,i] <- consplansw[region == regs[i], sum(`2per` == j)/.N] mathistraw[j,i] <- consplansw[region == regs[i], sum(hist == j)] mat2perraw[j,i] <- consplansw[region == regs[i], sum(`2per` == j)] } } colSums(mathist) colSums(mat2per) colSums(mathistraw) colSums(mat2perraw) l <- list(mathist=mathist, mat2per=mat2per) mat <- do.call(cbind, l)[,order(sequence(sapply(l, ncol)))] # change in zones: 2per - hist mat2perraw - mathistraw # number round(mat2per - mathist,3) # fraction range(mat2per[4,] - mathist[4,]) # fractional decrease in free space (e.g., increase in plan area) mean(mat2per[4,] - mathist[4,]) # mean fractional decrease in free space (e.g., increase in plan area) sd(mat2per[4,] - mathist[4,])/sqrt(9) # SE fractional decrease in free space (e.g., increase in plan area) # modify to trick barplot into letting me use 8 colors instead of 4 # see http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/barplot-colors-td4662538.html matmod <- cbind(c(mat[,1], rep(0,nrow(mat))), c(rep(0,nrow(mat)), mat[,2])) for(i in seq(3,ncol(mat),by=2)){ matmod <- cbind(matmod, c(mat[,i], rep(0,nrow(mat))), c(rep(0,nrow(mat)), mat[,i+1])) } # plot regnames = c('EBS', 'GoA', 'BC', 'WC', 'GMex', 'SEUS', 'NEUS', 'Mar', 'Newf') cols <- brewer.pal(8, 'RdYlBu') cols <- cols[c(1:4, 8:5)] # quartz(width=8.7/2.54, height=5/2.54) pdf(width=8.7/2.54, height=10/2.54, file='figures/Fig3_planareas.pdf') #png(width=8.7/2.54, height=10/2.54, units = 'in', res = 300, file='figures/Fig3_planareas.png') par(mfrow = c(2, 1), mai=c(0.2, 0.75, 0.1, 0.1), mgp=c(1.8, 0.4, 0), tcl=-0.2, las=1, cex.axis=0.8) barplot(height=matmod, space=rep(c(1,0), ncol(mathist)), xaxt='n', col=cols, ylab='Proportion', xlim=c(1.5,40)) axis(1, at=seq(2,26,by=3), labels=NA, cex.axis=0.8, las=2, mgp=c(1.8, 0.5, 0)) mtext(side = 3, text = 'a)', adj = -0.3, line = -0.5, las = 1, cex = 1) legend(x=28.5, y=1, fill=cols[8:5], legend=c('Free', 'Energy', 'Fishing', 'Conservation'), cex=0.5, bty='n') legend(x=27, y=1, fill=cols[4:1], legend=rep("",4), cex=0.5, bty='n') par(mai=c(0.8, 0.75, 0.05, 0.1), mgp = c(1.8, 0.4, 0)) consplansw[, .(pchange = sum(change)/.N), by = region][, barplot(height = pchange, space = 2, xaxt = 'n', yaxt = 'n', col = 'black', ylab = 'Proportion\nchanged', xlim = c(2,40), ylim = c(0, 0.35))] axis(1, at = seq(2.5,26.5,by=3), labels=regnames, cex.axis=0.8, las=2, mgp=c(1.8, 0.5, 0)) axis(2, at = seq(0, 0.3, by = 0.1)) mtext(side = 3, text = 'b)', adj = -0.3, line = -0.5, las = 1, cex = 1) dev.off() # make a table instead round(mathist[c('conservation', 'fishery', 'energy', 'free'), c('ebs', 'ai', 'goa', 'wc', 'gmex', 'neus', 'scot', 'sgulf', 'newf')],2) round(mat2per[c('conservation', 'fishery', 'energy', 'free'), c('ebs', 'ai', 'goa', 'wc', 'gmex', 'neus', 'scot', 'sgulf', 'newf')],2) round(rowMeans(mathist[c('conservation', 'fishery', 'energy', 'free'), c('ebs', 'ai', 'goa', 'wc', 'gmex', 'neus', 'scot', 'sgulf', 'newf')]),2) round(rowMeans(mat2per[c('conservation', 'fishery', 'energy', 'free'), c('ebs', 'ai', 'goa', 'wc', 'gmex', 'neus', 'scot', 'sgulf', 'newf')]),2) ################################################ # Fig. 4 Plot the prioritizr efficiency frontier ################################################ # read in prioritizr solutions frontierall <- fread('temp/frontierall_2019-12-31_075440.csv', drop = 1) frontierall <- frontierall[budget == 0.75, ] setkey(frontierall, region, budget, presweight) # definition of planning features by region sppfiles <- list.files(path = 'output/prioritizr_runs/', pattern = 'spp_*', full.names = TRUE) spps <- fread(sppfiles[1], drop = 1) spps[, region := gsub('/|output|prioritizr_runs|spp_|\\.csv', '', sppfiles[1])] for(i in 2:length(sppfiles)){ temp <- fread(sppfiles[i], drop = 1) temp[, region := gsub('/|output|prioritizr_runs|spp_|\\.csv', '', sppfiles[i])] spps <- rbind(spps, temp) } rm(temp) ngoals <- spps[name != 'energy', .(ngoals = .N), by = region] setkey(ngoals, region) # set up region order and add ngoals frontierall[, region := factor(region, levels = c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf'))] # set order frontierall <- merge(frontierall, ngoals, by = 'region') # how many not optimal? frontierall[, .(notopt = sum(status != 'OPTIMAL'), total = .N), by = region] # set up goals as a % of total frontierall[, ':='(presperc = presgoals/ngoals, futperc = futgoals/ngoals)] # quick plot as a check #require(ggplot2) #ggplot(frontierall, aes(x = presperc, y = futperc, group = budget, color = budget)) + # geom_path(size = 0.4) + # geom_point(size = 0.3) + # facet_wrap(~ region, nrow = 3, scales = 'free') # Drop non-frontier points (automated) # If two points share the same futperc, it chooses the one with the higher presperc (or vice versa) frontierall[, todrop := 0] for(i in 1:nrow(frontierall)){ thisreg <- frontierall[i, region] thispresperc <- frontierall[i, presperc] k1 <- frontierall[, presperc == thispresperc & region == thisreg] if(length(unique(frontierall[k1, futperc])) > 1){ mx <- frontierall[k1, max(futperc)] frontierall[presperc == thispresperc & futperc != mx & region == thisreg & presweight != 0 & presweight != 100, todrop := 1] } thisfutperc <- frontierall[i, futperc] k2 <- frontierall[, futperc == thisfutperc & region == thisreg] if(length(unique(frontierall[k2, presperc])) > 1){ mx <- frontierall[k2, max(presperc)] frontierall[futperc == thisfutperc & presperc != mx & region == thisreg & presweight != 0 & presweight != 100, todrop := 1] } } ggplot(frontierall[todrop == 0,], aes(x = presperc, y = futperc, group = budget, color = budget)) + geom_path(size = 0.4) + geom_point(size = 0.3) + facet_wrap(~ region, nrow = 3, scales = 'free') # Plot %goals met for each weighting and region #colmat <- t(col2rgb(brewer.pal(9, 'Set1'))) #cols <- rgb(red=colmat[,1], green=colmat[,2], blue=colmat[,3], alpha=c(255,255,255,255), maxColorValue=255) cols <- pal_lancet(alpha = 1)(9) yaxts <- c('s', 'n', 'n', 's', 'n', 'n', 's', 'n', 'n') xaxts <- c('n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 's', 's', 's') myregs <- c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf') regnames = c('Eastern Bering Sea', 'Gulf of Alaska', 'British Columbia', 'West Coast U.S.', 'Gulf of Mexico', 'Southeast U.S.', 'Northeast U.S.', 'Maritimes', 'Newfoundland') buds <- 0.75 # the budgets to plot #png('figures/Fig4_prioritizr_frontiers.png', height = 4, width = 6, units = 'in', res = 300) pdf('figures/Fig4_prioritizr_frontiers.pdf', height = 4, width = 6) layout(matrix(c(1,4,4,4,2,4,4,4,3,4,4,4), byrow = TRUE, ncol = 4)) par(mai=c(0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.05), cex.main = 1, cex.axis = 0.8, tcl = -0.3, mgp=c(2,0.5,0)) plot(x = c(0, 1, 1), y = c(1, 1, 0), type = 'l', bty = 'l', lwd = 2, xaxt = 'n', yaxt = 'n', xlab = '', ylab = '', xlim = c(-0.25, 1.25), ylim = c(-0.25, 1.25)) plot(x = c(0, 1), y = c(1, 0), type = 'l', bty = 'l', lwd = 2, xaxt = 'n', yaxt = 'n', xlab = '', ylab = '', xlim = c(-0.25, 1.25), ylim = c(-0.25, 1.25)) x1 <- seq(0, 1, length = 100) plot(x = x1, y = sqrt(1 - x1^2), type = 'l', bty = 'l', lwd = 2, xaxt = 'n', yaxt = 'n', xlab = '', ylab = '', xlim = c(-0.25, 1.25), ylim = c(-0.25, 1.25)) par(mai=c(0.7, 0.7, 0.2, 0.05)) plot(0, 0, type = 'o', bty = 'l', pch = 16, col = 'white', xlab='Present goals met (proportion)', ylab='Future goals met (proportion)', ylim = c(0.2, 1), xlim = c(0.3, 1), main='') for (i in 1:length(myregs)) { # for each region frontierall[region == myregs[i] & budget == buds & todrop == 0, lines(presperc, futperc, type = 'l', pch = 16, col = cols[i])] } legend('bottomleft', legend = regnames, col = cols, lty = 1, cex = 0.7, title = 'Regions') dev.off() ############################################### ## Fig. 5 Management area species gains and losses plot and stats ############################################### wdpaturnbyMPAbymod <- fread('temp/wdpaturnbyMPAbymod.csv.gz', drop = 1) # individual MPA results wdpaturnbynetbymod <- fread('temp/wdpaturnbynetbymod.csv.gz') # network results # Prep # reshape to long format wdpaturnbyMPAbymodl <- melt(wdpaturnbyMPAbymod, id.vars = c('WDPA_PID', 'network'), measure.vars = patterns('ninit|nfinal|nshared|nlost|ngained')) # convert to long wdpaturnbyMPAbymodl[, c('var', 'rcp', 'model') := tstrsplit(variable, "\\.", fixed = FALSE)][, variable := NULL] # extract rcp and GMC number from the col name wdpaturnbyMPAbymodl <- dcast(wdpaturnbyMPAbymodl, WDPA_PID + network + rcp + model ~ var) # group ninit -> nshared as separate columns wdpaturnbynetbymodl <- melt(wdpaturnbynetbymod, id.vars = c('network'), measure.vars = patterns('ninit|nfinal|nshared|nlost|ngained')) # convert to long wdpaturnbynetbymodl[, c('var', 'rcp', 'model') := tstrsplit(variable, "\\.", fixed = FALSE)][, variable := NULL] # extract rcp and GMC number from the col name wdpaturnbynetbymodl <- dcast(wdpaturnbynetbymodl, network + rcp + model ~ var) # group ninit -> nshared as separate columns # calculate means within models/rcps (across regions) means <- wdpaturnbyMPAbymodl[, .(flost = mean(nlost/ninit), fgained = mean(ngained/nfinal), beta_sor=mean(2*nshared/(2*nshared + ngained + nlost))), by=c('rcp', 'model')] # calculate network means within climate models/rcps means.net <- wdpaturnbynetbymodl[, .(flost = mean(nlost/ninit), fgained = mean(ngained/nfinal), beta_sor=mean(2*nshared/(2*nshared + ngained + nlost))), by=c('rcp', 'model')] # calculate means within models/rcps for individual MPAs in the networks means.net.indiv <- wdpaturnbyMPAbymodl[!is.na(network), .(flost = mean(nlost/ninit), fgained = mean(ngained/nfinal), beta_sor=mean(2*nshared/(2*nshared + ngained + nlost))), by=c('rcp', 'model')] # combine network and individual MPA results means.net$type <- 'net' means.net.indiv$type <- 'ind' means.net <- rbind(means.net, means.net.indiv) # Statistics for individual and networks of management zones # means and SE means.net[, .(flost = mean(flost), flost.sd = sd(flost), fgained = mean(fgained), fgained.sd = sd(fgained), beta_sor_diss = mean(1 - beta_sor), beta_sor_diss.sd = sd(1 - beta_sor)), by = c('type', 'rcp')] sort(means.net[type == 'ind', beta_sor] - means.net[type == 'net', beta_sor]) # sorted differences: all negative # test t.test(means.net[type == 'ind', beta_sor], means.net[type == 'net', beta_sor]) # parametric wilcox.test(means.net[type == 'ind', beta_sor], means.net[type == 'net', beta_sor]) # non-parametric # MLPA example wdpaturnbyMPAbymodl[network == 'mlpa', .(flost = mean(nlost/ninit), fgained = mean(ngained/nfinal), beta_sor = 1 - mean(2*nshared/(2*nshared + ngained + nlost))), by = .(rcp, model)][, .(flost = mean(flost), fgained = mean(fgained), beta_sor = mean(beta_sor))] # individual MPAs wdpaturnbynetbymodl[network == 'mlpa', .(flost = mean(nlost/ninit), fgained = mean(ngained/nfinal), beta_sor = 1 - mean(2*nshared/(2*nshared + ngained + nlost)))] # individual MPAs # Plot of mean MPA change and network change cols <- list(c('#67a9cf','white','black','#2166ac'), c('#ef8a62', 'white','black','#b2182b')) # colors from Colorbrewer2 7-class RdBu # quartz(width=8.7/2.54,height=8.7/2.54) pdf(width=8.7/2.54, height=8.7/2.54, file='figures/Fig5_MPA_turnover.pdf') #png(width=8.7/2.54, height=8.7/2.54, units = 'in', res = 300, file='figures/Fig5_MPA_turnover.png') par(mfrow=c(2,2), las=2, mai=c(0.5,0.45,0.1, 0.05), omi=c(0,0,0,0), mgp=c(1.6,0.4,0), tcl=-0.2, cex.axis=0.8) beanplot(flost ~ type + rcp, data = means.net, what = c(0,1,1,0), side = 'both', col = cols, border = NA, wd = 0.18, handlelog = FALSE, names = c('RCP 2.6', 'RCP 8.5'), las = 1, at = c(1, 3), log = "", ylim = c(0, 0.5), xlim = c(0, 4), cut = 0.01, ylab = 'Fraction lost') mtext(side = 3, text = 'a)', adj = -0.4, line = -0.4, las = 1, cex = 0.9) beanplot(fgained ~ type + rcp, data = means.net, what = c(0,1,1,0), side = 'both', col = cols, border = NA, wd = 0.18, handlelog = FALSE, names = c('RCP 2.6', 'RCP 8.5'), las = 1, at = c(1, 3.2), log = "", ylim = c(0, 0.6), xlim = c(0, 4.5), cut = 0.01, ylab = 'Fraction gained') mtext(side = 3, text = 'b)', adj = -0.4, line = -0.4, las = 1, cex = 0.9) beanplot(I(1-beta_sor) ~ type + rcp, data = means.net, what = c(0,1,1,0), side = 'both', col = cols, border = NA, wd = 0.18, handlelog = FALSE, names = c('RCP 2.6', 'RCP 8.5'), las = 1, at = c(1, 3), log = "", ylim = c(0, 1), xlim = c(0, 4), cut = 0.01, ylab = 'Dissimilarity') # flost mtext(side = 3, text = 'c)', adj = -0.4, line = -0.4, las = 1, cex = 0.9) plot(1, 1, bty = 'n', xaxt = 'n', yaxt = 'n', col = 'white', xlab = '', ylab = '') legend('center', legend = c('Individual', 'Network'), title = 'Type', col = c(cols[[1]][1], cols[[2]][1]), lty = 1, lwd = 10, bty = 'n') dev.off() ################################################### ## Fig. S1 Efficiency frontiers for other budgets ################################################### # read in prioritizr solutions frontier1 <- fread('temp/frontierall_2019-12-22_071607.csv', drop = 1) # 50% budget frontier2 <- fread('temp/frontierall_2019-12-31_075440.csv', drop = 1) # 75% and 90% budgets frontier2 <- frontier2[budget == 0.9, ] frontierall <- rbind(frontier1, frontier2) setkey(frontierall, region, budget, presweight) # definition of planning features by region sppfiles <- list.files(path = 'output/prioritizr_runs/', pattern = 'spp_*', full.names = TRUE) spps <- fread(sppfiles[1], drop = 1) spps[, region := gsub('/|output|prioritizr_runs|spp_|\\.csv', '', sppfiles[1])] for(i in 2:length(sppfiles)){ temp <- fread(sppfiles[i], drop = 1) temp[, region := gsub('/|output|prioritizr_runs|spp_|\\.csv', '', sppfiles[i])] spps <- rbind(spps, temp) } rm(temp) ngoals <- spps[name != 'energy', .(ngoals = .N), by = region] setkey(ngoals, region) # set up region order and add ngoals frontierall[, region := factor(region, levels = c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf'))] # set order frontierall <- merge(frontierall, ngoals, by = 'region') # how many not optimal? frontierall[, .(notopt = sum(status != 'OPTIMAL'), total = .N), by = region] # set up goals as a % of total frontierall[, ':='(presperc = presgoals/ngoals, futperc = futgoals/ngoals)] # quick plot as a check require(ggplot2) ggplot(frontierall, aes(x = presperc, y = futperc, group = budget, color = region)) + geom_path(size = 0.4) + geom_point(size = 0.3) + facet_wrap(~ budget, nrow = 3, scales = 'free') # Drop non-frontier points (automated) # If two points share the same futperc, it chooses the one with the higher presperc (or vice versa) frontierall[, todrop := 0] for(i in 1:nrow(frontierall)){ thisreg <- frontierall[i, region] thisbud <- frontierall[i, budget] thispresperc <- frontierall[i, presperc] k1 <- frontierall[, presperc == thispresperc & region == thisreg & budget == thisbud] if(length(unique(frontierall[k1, futperc])) > 1){ mx <- frontierall[k1, max(futperc)] frontierall[presperc == thispresperc & futperc < mx & region == thisreg & presweight != 0 & presweight != 100, todrop := 1] } thisfutperc <- frontierall[i, futperc] k2 <- frontierall[, futperc == thisfutperc & region == thisreg & budget == thisbud] if(length(unique(frontierall[k2, presperc])) > 1){ mx <- frontierall[k2, max(presperc)] frontierall[futperc == thisfutperc & presperc < mx & region == thisreg & presweight != 0 & presweight != 100, todrop := 1] } } ggplot(frontierall[todrop == 0, ], aes(x = presperc, y = futperc, group = budget, color = region)) + geom_path(size = 0.4) + geom_point(size = 0.3) + facet_wrap(~ budget, nrow = 3, scales = 'free') # Plot %goals met for each weighting and region #colmat <- t(col2rgb(brewer.pal(9, 'Set1'))) #cols <- rgb(red=colmat[,1], green=colmat[,2], blue=colmat[,3], alpha=c(255,255,255,255), maxColorValue=255) cols <- pal_lancet(alpha = 1)(9) yaxts <- c('s', 'n', 'n', 's', 'n', 'n', 's', 'n', 'n') xaxts <- c('n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 'n', 's', 's', 's') myregs <- c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf') regnames = c('Eastern Bering Sea', 'Gulf of Alaska', 'British Columbia', 'West Coast U.S.', 'Gulf of Mexico', 'Southeast U.S.', 'Northeast U.S.', 'Maritimes', 'Newfoundland') buds <- 0.5 # the budgets to plot png('figures/FigS1_prioritizr_frontiers.png', height = 8, width = 6, units = 'in', res = 300) par(mfrow = c(2,1), mai=c(0.7, 0.7, 0.2, 0.05), cex.main = 1, cex.axis = 0.8, tcl = -0.3, mgp=c(2,0.5,0), las = 1) plot(0, 0, type = 'o', pch = 16, col = 'white', bty = 'l', xlab='Present goals met (proportion)', ylab='Future goals met (proportion)', ylim = c(0.2, 1), xlim = c(0.3, 1), main='') for (i in 1:length(myregs)) { # for each region frontierall[region == myregs[i] & budget == 0.5 & todrop == 0, lines(presperc, futperc, type = 'l', pch = 16, col = cols[i])] } legend('bottomleft', legend = regnames, col = cols, lty = 1, cex = 0.7, title = 'Regions') plot(0, 0, type = 'o', pch = 16, col = 'white', bty = 'l', xlab='Present goals met (proportion)', ylab='Future goals met (proportion)', ylim = c(0.2, 1), xlim = c(0.3, 1), main='') for (i in 1:length(myregs)) { # for each region frontierall[region == myregs[i] & budget == 0.9 & todrop == 0, lines(presperc, futperc, type = 'l', pch = 16, col = cols[i])] } dev.off() ################################################# ## Fig. S2: Simulated management area networks ################################################# randMPAs <- fread('output/randMPAs_byBT.csv', drop = 1) # read in the simulations stats <- fread('output/MPA_network_stats.csv', drop = 1) regs <- sort(unique(randMPAs$region)) # plot netwrkturn as color dots (initial plot) colrmp <- colorRamp(brewer.pal(11, name='Spectral')) par(mfrow=c(3,3)) for(i in 1:length(regs)){ inds <- randMPAs$region==regs[i] plot(randMPAs$size[inds], randMPAs$temprng[inds], pch=16, col=rgb(colrmp(randMPAs$netwrkturn[inds]), maxColorValue=256), main=regs[i]) } # plot netwrkturn as averages within grid squares colrmp <- colorRamp(rev(brewer.pal(11, name='Spectral'))) colpal <- colorRampPalette(rev(brewer.pal(11, name='Spectral'))) xlabs <- c('', '', '', '', '', '', 'Proportion of area in network', 'Proportion of area in network', 'Proportion of area in network') ylabs <- c('Proportion of thermal\nrange in network', '', '', 'Proportion of thermal\nrange in network', '', '', 'Proportion of thermal\nrange in network', '', '') regs <- c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf') # set plot order regsnice = c('Eastern Bering Sea', 'Gulf of Alaska', 'British Columbia', 'West Coast U.S.', 'Gulf of Mexico', 'Southeast U.S.', 'Northeast U.S.', 'Maritimes', 'Newfoundland') szs <- seq(min(randMPAs$size, na.rm=TRUE), max(randMPAs$size, na.rm=TRUE), length.out=10) rngs <- seq(min(randMPAs$temprng, na.rm=TRUE), max(randMPAs$temprng, na.rm=TRUE), length.out=10) szstep <- diff(szs)[1] tempstep <- diff(rngs)[1] gridave <- expand.grid(region = regs, size = szs, temprng = rngs, ave = NA) for(i in 1:nrow(gridave)){ inds <- randMPAs[, region == gridave$region[i] & abs(temprng - gridave$temprng[i]) < tempstep/2 & abs(size - gridave$size[i]) < szstep] gridave$ave[i] <- mean(randMPAs$netwrkturn[inds]) } png(units='in', res=300, width=7, height=6, file='figures/FigS2_randMPAs.png') par(mgp=c(2,0.5,0), mai=c(0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.1), omi=c(0.25, 0.3, 0, 0), xpd=NA, tcl=-0.3, las=1) layout(matrix(1:18, nrow = 3, byrow = TRUE), widths = c(6, 3, 6, 3, 6, 3), heights = c(1, 1, 1)) for(i in 1:length(regs)){ # construct matrix for plotting dissimilarity and scale to 0-1 inds <- gridave$region == regs[i] & !is.na(gridave$ave) thisdat <- gridave[inds,] minz <- min(floor(thisdat$ave*10)/10) maxz <- max(ceiling(thisdat$ave*10)/10) thisdat$newz <- thisdat$ave - minz thisdat$newz <- thisdat$newz/(maxz - minz) mat <- as.data.frame(dcast(as.data.table(thisdat), temprng ~ size, value.var='newz')) row.names(mat) <- mat$temprng mat <- t(as.matrix(mat[,2:ncol(mat)])) # transpose because of the way image handles matrices # plot par(mgp=c(2,0.5,0), mai=c(0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.05), tcl=-0.3) image(z=mat, x=sort(unique(thisdat$size)), y=sort(unique(thisdat$temprng)), col=colpal(100), main=regsnice[i], xlab=xlabs[i], ylab=ylabs[i]) # plot NA as grey matna <- mat matna[is.na(mat)] <- 1 matna[!is.na(mat)] <- NA image(z=matna, x=sort(unique(thisdat$size)), y=sort(unique(thisdat$temprng)), col='grey', add=TRUE) # add dot for empirical network inds2 <- as.character(stats$region) == regs[i] if(sum(inds2) > 0){ points(stats$fracsize[inds2], stats$fractemp[inds2], pch=10, cex=2, col='white') } # add color bar in next plot space par(mgp=c(2,0.5,0), mai=c(0.1, 0.05, 0.3, 0.5), tcl=-0.1) color.bar(colpal(100), min = minz, max = maxz, nticks = 5) # color.bar(colpal(100), min = 0, max = 0.4, nticks = 5) } dev.off() ################################################################################# ## Fig. S3: Compare trawl observations vs. SDM predictions in management areas ################################################################################# wdpa_by_spp_obs_reg <- fread('temp/wdpa_trawlsppobs_byreg.csv.gz', drop = 1) # trawl survey observations of species in MPAs mpatrawl <- fread('output/MPAvstrawl_NPV_PPV.csv', drop = 1) # NPV and PPV calculations cols = brewer.pal(4, 'Paired') png(units='in', res=300, width=8, height=4, file='figures/FigS3_MPA_trawl.png') par(mfrow = c(1,2), mai = c(1, 1, 0.3, 0.3)) wdpa_by_spp_obs_reg[, hist(nhaul, breaks = seq(0, 450, by = 4), col = 'grey', xlab = 'Number of hauls per management area', main = '', ylab = '')] mtext(side = 2, 'Frequency', line = 2.8, las = 0) mtext(side = 3, 'a)', line = -0.5, at = -120, cex = 1.5) plot(1000, 1000, xlim = c(1, 100), ylim = c(0, 1), log = 'x', xlab = 'Minimum hauls per management area', ylab = 'Predictive value', las = 1, bty = 'n') thresh[, polygon(c(min, rev(min)), c(npv+npvse, rev(npv-npvse)), col = cols[1], border = NA)] thresh[, polygon(c(min, rev(min)), c(ppv+ppvse, rev(ppv-ppvse)), col = cols[3], border = NA)] thresh[, lines(min, npv, type = 'l', col = cols[2])] thresh[, lines(min, ppv, type ='l', col = cols[4])] mtext(side = 3, 'b)', line = -0.5, at = 0.25, cex = 1.5) dev.off() # overall values (for text) thresh[min == 1, ] ############################################################## ## Table S1 problem definitions for planning in each region ## Also stats for text (# planning units total) ############################################################## # Read in plans and species folder <- 'output/prioritizr_runs' runnames1 <- list.files(path = folder, pattern = 'solution') consplans <- vector('list', length(runnames1)) for(i in 1:length(consplans)){ consplans[[i]] <- fread(paste0(folder, '/', runnames1[i]), drop = 1) consplans[[i]]$region <- gsub('solution_|2per_|hist_|.csv', '', runnames[i]) consplans[[i]]$type <- gsub('solution_|_ebs|_goa|_bc|_wc|_gmex|_seus|_neus|_maritime|_newf|.csv', '', runnames[i]) } consplans <- rbindlist(consplans) runnames2 <- list.files(path = folder, pattern = 'spp') spps <- vector('list', length(runnames2)) for(i in 1:length(spps)){ spps[[i]] <- fread(paste0(folder, '/', runnames2[i]), drop = 1) spps[[i]]$region <- gsub('spp_|.csv', '', runnames2[i]) } spps <- rbindlist(spps) spps[, type := 'conservation'] spps[grepl('fishery', name), type := 'fishery'] spps[grepl('energy', name), type := 'energy'] # How many planning units and in each region? nrow(consplans) area <- consplans[type == 'hist', .(area = .N), by = .(region)] # per region area # How many goals of each type in each region? spps[, .N, by = .(region, type)] cons <- spps[type == 'conservation', .(conservation = .N), by = .(region)] fish <- spps[type == 'fishery', .(fishery = .N), by = .(region)] spps[type == 'energy', .N, by = .(region)] # combine into table tables1 <- merge(area, cons, by = 'region') tables1 <- merge(tables1, fish, by = 'region') # order W to E ord <- data.table(region = c('ebs', 'goa', 'bc', 'wc', 'gmex', 'seus', 'neus', 'maritime', 'newf'), order = 1:9) tables1 <- merge(tables1, ord) setorder(tables1, order) # write out write.csv(tables1[, .(region, area, conservation, fishery)], 'tables/tableS1.csv', row.names = FALSE)