#!/usr/bin/env python3 import json import numpy as np import sys from pathlib import Path # 添加项目根目录到路径,以便导入result_tools project_root = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2] # data/crypto -> AI-Trader if str(project_root) not in sys.path: sys.path.insert(0, str(project_root)) from tools.result_tools import ( calculate_daily_returns, calculate_sharpe_ratio, calculate_max_drawdown, calculate_cumulative_return, calculate_volatility, calculate_win_rate ) # 读取CD5指数数据 with open('CD5_crypto_index.json', 'r') as f: data = json.load(f) time_series = data['Time Series (Daily)'] dates = sorted(time_series.keys()) # 过滤掉11-01的数据,从11-02开始,与agent模拟时间保持一致 agent_start_date = "2025-11-02" if agent_start_date in dates: start_index = dates.index(agent_start_date) dates = dates[start_index:] print(f'⚠️ 时间对齐: 跳过11-01,从{agent_start_date}开始计算,与agent模拟保持一致') else: print(f'⚠️ 未找到{agent_start_date}数据,使用全部可用数据') print('=== CD5指数数据分析 (与Agent时间对齐) ===') print(f'数据日期范围: {dates[0]} 到 {dates[-1]}') print(f'总交易日数: {len(dates)}') # 计算CD5指数表现 (与result_tools.py保持一致,使用收盘价) # 构建组合价值字典 (与result_tools.py格式一致) portfolio_values = {} for date in dates: portfolio_values[date] = float(time_series[date]['4. close']) initial_value = portfolio_values[dates[0]] # 使用第一天的收盘价,与result_tools.py一致 final_value = portfolio_values[dates[-1]] # 使用最后一天的收盘价 print(f'初始价值: ${initial_value:,.2f}') print(f'最终价值: ${final_value:,.2f}') print(f'价值变化: ${final_value - initial_value:,.2f}') # 使用result_tools.py的函数计算指标,确保完全一致 from datetime import datetime # 计算各项指标 (与result_tools.py保持完全一致) daily_returns = calculate_daily_returns(portfolio_values) volatility = calculate_volatility(daily_returns, trading_days=365) # 加密货币365天 win_rate = calculate_win_rate(daily_returns) sharpe_ratio = calculate_sharpe_ratio(daily_returns, trading_days=365) # 加密货币365天 max_drawdown, drawdown_start, drawdown_end = calculate_max_drawdown(portfolio_values) # 使用result_tools.py的累计收益率函数确保一致性 cumulative_return = calculate_cumulative_return(portfolio_values) print(f'累计收益率: {cumulative_return:.2%} (使用result_tools.py计算)') # 计算年化收益率 start_date = datetime.strptime(dates[0], "%Y-%m-%d") end_date = datetime.strptime(dates[-1], "%Y-%m-%d") days = (end_date - start_date).days if days > 0: annualized_return = (1 + cumulative_return) ** (365 / days) - 1 else: annualized_return = 0.0 print(f'年化收益率: {annualized_return:.2%}') print(f'投资天数: {days}天') print(f'最大回撤: {max_drawdown:.2%}') print(f'回撤期间: {drawdown_start} 到 {drawdown_end}') print(f'年化波动率: {volatility:.2%}') print(f'夏普比率: {sharpe_ratio:.4f}') print(f'胜率: {win_rate:.2%}') # 为了兼容性,保留原有的变量名 daily_volatility = np.std(daily_returns, ddof=1) if daily_returns else 0.0 mean_return = np.mean(daily_returns) if daily_returns else 0.0 annualized_return_for_sharpe = mean_return * 365 risk_free_rate = 0.02 # portfolio_values 已经在上面构建了,无需重复 # 输出用于报告的数据 print(f'\n=== 用于报告的数据 ===') print(f'CD5指数:') print(f' 累计收益率: {cumulative_return:.2%}') print(f' 年化收益率: {annualized_return:.2%}') print(f' 夏普比率: {sharpe_ratio:.4f}') print(f' 最大回撤: {max_drawdown:.2%}') print(f' 胜率: {win_rate:.2%}') print(f' 最终价值: ${final_value:,.0f}') # 保存CD5结果到JSON文件 save_cd5_results = True if save_cd5_results: from datetime import datetime timestamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d_%H%M%S") output_file = f'CD5_metrics_{timestamp}.json' cd5_results = { "evaluation_time": datetime.now().isoformat(), "model_name": "CD5指数", "market": "crypto", "trading_days": len(dates), "start_date": dates[0], "end_date": dates[-1], "initial_value": initial_value, "final_value": final_value, "value_change": final_value - initial_value, "cumulative_return": round(cumulative_return, 4), "annualized_return": round(annualized_return, 4), "sharpe_ratio": round(sharpe_ratio, 4), "max_drawdown": round(max_drawdown, 4), "max_drawdown_start": drawdown_start, "max_drawdown_end": drawdown_end, "volatility": round(volatility, 4), "win_rate": round(win_rate, 4), "trading_days_with_data": len(daily_returns), "investment_days": days, "daily_returns_count": len(daily_returns), "daily_volatility": round(daily_volatility, 6), "mean_daily_return": round(mean_return, 6), "annualized_return_for_sharpe": round(annualized_return_for_sharpe, 4), "risk_free_rate": risk_free_rate, "trading_days_per_year": 365, # 加密货币365天交易 "cd5_composition": { "BTC": 74.56, "ETH": 15.97, "XRP": 5.20, "SOL": 3.53, "ADA": 0.76 }, "notes": "CD5指数基准,使用365天交易计算年化指标" } # 保存详细结果 with open(output_file, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f: json.dump(cd5_results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) print(f'\n💾 CD5指标已保存到: {output_file}') # 同时保存一个固定名称的最新结果文件 latest_file = 'CD5_latest_metrics.json' with open(latest_file, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f: json.dump(cd5_results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) print(f'💾 最新CD5指标已保存到: {latest_file}') # 生成可用于报告的简化数据 report_data = { "model_name": "CD5指数", "status": "✅ 基准", "trading_days": len(dates), "start_date": dates[0], "end_date": dates[-1], "cumulative_return": round(cumulative_return, 4), "annualized_return": round(annualized_return, 4), "sharpe_ratio": round(sharpe_ratio, 4), "max_drawdown": round(max_drawdown, 4), "volatility": round(volatility, 4), "win_rate": round(win_rate, 4), "initial_value": initial_value, "final_value": final_value, "value_change": final_value - initial_value, "value_change_percent": round(cumulative_return, 4), "is_benchmark": True } # 保存简化版本用于模型对比 report_file = 'CD5_for_comparison.json' with open(report_file, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f: json.dump(report_data, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) print(f'💾 对比用CD5数据已保存到: {report_file}') else: print('\n⚠️ CD5结果保存功能已禁用')