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@@ -630,3 +630,4 @@ sql_workloads/v2_current/analysis_runs/trainonly_v2_current_success_official_20w
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subgroup_breakdown/v2/analysis_report__v2.md

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+# Subgroup Breakdown Report
+
+## Scope
+
+- Source analysis run: `trainonly_v2_current_success_official_20way_official20_20260519_232817`
+- Family analyzed: `subgroup_structure`
+- Excluded models: `cdtd, codi, goggle`
+- Included models: `12`
+- Deduplicated dataset-model panels: `536`
+- Subgroup query rows used: `10977`
+
+## Canonical decomposition
+
+- `subgroup_structure = 0.5 * internal_profile_stability + 0.5 * subgroup_size_stability`
+- `internal_profile_stability` captures subgroup-internal feature/distribution behavior.
+- `subgroup_size_stability` captures whether subgroup support/size structure is preserved.
+
+## Main findings
+
+1. `REAL` is the expected perfect upper bound with subgroup score `1.000`. Among synthetic generators, `RealTabFormer` is strongest with mean subgroup score `0.817` across `47` datasets.
+2. `TabDDPM` leans most toward internal-profile preservation (profile minus size = `-0.003`), while `ForestDiffusion` is the clearest size-heavy model (profile minus size = `-0.042`).
+3. `TabDDPM` is the most balanced model between the two subgroup branches with mean absolute branch gap `0.003`.
+4. Dataset difficulty is uneven: `c6` is the hardest dataset on subgroup score (`0.083` mean across models), while `c3` is the easiest (`1.000`).
+
+## Files to use first
+
+- `figures/subgroup_tradeoff_scatter_main.pdf`
+- `figures/subgroup_branch_dumbbell_main.pdf`
+- `figures/subgroup_prefix_bars_appendix.pdf`
+- `tables/subgroup_model_summary_generated.tex`
+- `data/model_summary.csv`
+
+## Prefix note
+
+- Prefix coverage summary rows: `36`
+- The `c / m / n` split is exported explicitly because subgroup behavior differs by dataset family, not just by overall model average.

subgroup_breakdown/v2/subgroup_branch_dumbbell_main__v2.tex

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+\documentclass[tikz,border=4pt]{standalone}
+\usepackage{pgfplots}
+\usepackage{xcolor}
+\usetikzlibrary{patterns}
+\pgfplotsset{compat=1.18}
+
+\definecolor{modelreal}{HTML}{000000}
+\definecolor{modelarf}{HTML}{777777}
+\definecolor{modelbayesnet}{HTML}{CCBB44}
+\definecolor{modelctgan}{HTML}{EE6677}
+\definecolor{modelforestdiffusion}{HTML}{228833}
+\definecolor{modelrealtabformer}{HTML}{332288}
+\definecolor{modeltabbyflow}{HTML}{882255}
+\definecolor{modeltabddpm}{HTML}{EE7733}
+\definecolor{modeltabdiff}{HTML}{AA3377}
+\definecolor{modeltabpfgen}{HTML}{009988}
+\definecolor{modeltabsyn}{HTML}{66CCEE}
+\definecolor{modeltvae}{HTML}{4477AA}
+\begin{document}
+\begin{tikzpicture}
+\begin{axis}[
+width=13.2cm,
+height=9.8cm,
+xmin=0.15, xmax=1.03,
+ytick={12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1},
+yticklabels={REAL,ARF,BayesNet,CTGAN,ForestDiffusion,RealTabFormer,TabbyFlow,TabDDPM,TabDiff,TabPFGen,TabSyn,TVAE},
+y dir=reverse,
+xlabel={Score},
+grid=both,
+grid style={draw=gray!18},
+tick style={draw=black!70},
+legend style={draw=none, fill=none, font=\scriptsize, at={(0.03,0.03)}, anchor=south west},
+]
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+\addlegendimage{only marks, mark=diamond*, mark size=2.6pt, draw=black, fill=black}
+\addlegendentry{Canonical subgroup score}
+\end{axis}
+\end{tikzpicture}
+\end{document}

subgroup_breakdown/v2/subgroup_model_subitem_heatmap_appendix__v2.tex

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+\documentclass{standalone}
+\usepackage[table]{xcolor}
+\usepackage{xcolor}
+\usepackage{booktabs}
+
+\begin{document}
+\scriptsize
+\textbf{Subgroup model-subitem heatmap}\\[0.4em]
+\emph{Mean score, 0--1; missing cells stay white.}\\[0.5em]
+\setlength{\tabcolsep}{4pt}
+\begin{tabular}{lccccccccccc}
+\toprule
+Subitem & ARF & BayesNet & CTGAN & ForestDiffusion & RealTabFormer & TabbyFlow & TabDDPM & TabDiff & TabPFGen & TabSyn & TVAE \\
+\midrule
+Internal profile stability & \cellcolor[HTML]{216DAF} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2166AC} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1F7DB6} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1E8BBD} & \cellcolor[HTML]{24489D} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1E8BBD} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2498C1} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1F7EB7} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1F78B4} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2070B0} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1E8BBD} \\
+Subgroup size stability & \cellcolor[HTML]{225CA7} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2259A6} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2262AA} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2072B1} & \cellcolor[HTML]{243D98} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1F7DB6} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1D8EBF} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2070B0} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2168AD} & \cellcolor[HTML]{225EA8} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2168AD} \\
+Family mean & \cellcolor[HTML]{216AAD} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2166AC} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1F7AB5} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1E83BA} & \cellcolor[HTML]{24479D} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1E85BA} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2498C1} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1F7DB6} & \cellcolor[HTML]{2076B3} & \cellcolor[HTML]{206EB0} & \cellcolor[HTML]{1E85BA} \\
+\bottomrule
+\end{tabular}
+\end{document}

subgroup_breakdown/v2/subgroup_prefix_bars_appendix__v2.tex

@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
+\documentclass[tikz,border=4pt]{standalone}
+\usepackage{pgfplots}
+\usepackage{xcolor}
+\usetikzlibrary{patterns}
+\pgfplotsset{compat=1.18}
+
+\usepgfplotslibrary{groupplots}
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+\definecolor{modeltabddpm}{HTML}{EE7733}
+\definecolor{modeltabdiff}{HTML}{AA3377}
+\definecolor{modeltabpfgen}{HTML}{009988}
+\definecolor{modeltabsyn}{HTML}{66CCEE}
+\definecolor{modeltvae}{HTML}{4477AA}
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subgroup_breakdown/v2/subgroup_tradeoff_scatter_main__v2.tex

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+\documentclass[tikz,border=4pt]{standalone}
+\usepackage{pgfplots}
+\usepackage{xcolor}
+\usetikzlibrary{patterns}
+\pgfplotsset{compat=1.18}
+
+\definecolor{modelreal}{HTML}{000000}
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+\definecolor{modeltabdiff}{HTML}{AA3377}
+\definecolor{modeltabpfgen}{HTML}{009988}
+\definecolor{modeltabsyn}{HTML}{66CCEE}
+\definecolor{modeltvae}{HTML}{4477AA}
+\begin{document}
+\begin{tikzpicture}
+\begin{axis}[
+width=14.6cm,
+height=8.4cm,
+ymin=0.0, ymax=1.03,
+xlabel={Model},
+ylabel={Score},
+ymajorgrids,
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+coordinates { (TVAE,0.7231) +- (0,0.0951) };
+\addlegendimage{area legend, draw=black, fill=black}
+\addlegendentry{Internal profile stability}
+\addlegendimage{area legend, draw=black, fill=white, pattern=north east lines, pattern color=black}
+\addlegendentry{Subgroup size stability}
+\node[anchor=west, font=\scriptsize] at (rel axis cs:0.02,0.90) {$\uparrow$ better};
+\end{axis}
+\end{tikzpicture}
+\end{document}