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fomc | 1,977 | Well, we've got a stockpile policy now, if I understand this correctly, to rebuild the stockpile which Nixon tore down and sold off. | 29 |
fomc | 1,977 | Has the staff been following this? I'm not aware of this. | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | The staff has been following it. I'm afraid the staff that's here is not expert on that matter. We have someone following it, Mr. Chairman. | 30 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, let's have a report, rather promptly, on what is happening here. | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | The last I heard on this, Mr. Chairman, was a policy statement which would roughly put out $3 billion to $5 billion in raw materials, one of the major elements of which would be copper. | 42 |
fomc | 1,977 | Is this for the next fiscal year? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | It was to be spread over the next 2-1/2, as I recall, sir. | 21 |
fomc | 1,977 | I saw something about buying copper but selling aluminum, I think, which seems to make sense in the current situation. | 23 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes it did, but the net, I believe, Paul, was a major stockpile. Furthermore, I think the deterioration of the dollar is going to add a significant inflation stimulus over the next few months. I hope you are right that we'll get a reduction, or a correction, in these various elements you've mentioned to stop the deteri... | 171 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Coldwell. Mr. Lilly next, please. | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'm on this program by mistake. I heard you suggest we might get through early, so I volunteered not to speak, and therefore got put on the agenda. So being here, I will speak very briefly. I agree with the forecast in general. I am coming around to a tentative hypothesis that perhaps our business fixed investment fore... | 372 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, thank you. Yes, Mr. Black? | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I'm very intrigued by Governor Lilly's observation that he thinks we have been able to achieve more efficiency in this. Would you elucidate a little bit? I'm-- | 36 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, factories are being expanded today by the addition of new wings or rearranged to increase line productivity, rather than the selection of a new site and the construction of the new 1/2 million square foot facility. And you see some verification of this when you see that the machine tool figures are pretty good an... | 99 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think that's true, but there seems to be a new trend emerging in industrial and commercial construction since the first quarter of the year. How far that will go-- | 33 |
fomc | 1,977 | Do we get a breakdown between industrial and commercial? The figures we see are just a gross of 70 thousand-- | 23 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, I'll send you a table. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | What does it tell us? | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Both have been growing recently. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | They have been growing on parallel paths? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | Both of them have been growing quite vigorously over the last couple of quarters, as the Chairman points out. There's an enormous variation month by month. You get a sudden decline like last month, but basically they are both on an upward slant. | 49 |
fomc | 1,977 | How does warehouse get classified? As commercial or industrial? | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Commercial. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | It is. | 3 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think that one item that doesn't fit either category is theaters. How large a factor that is--I don't know. | 24 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's part of services. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I'd put it in commercial. You have to squeeze it in somewhere. | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think it's more industrial. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right. Mr. Partee now, please. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, Mr. Chairman, I'm prepared to take the staff projections as a sort of datum against which we can compare performance in the period to come. I guess my instinct says that the very immediate outlook is stronger than the staff projection, but the longer-run outlook is weaker than the staff projection. I think we hav... | 369 |
fomc | 1,977 | When you say that, Mr. Partee, are you taking into account the probability of the sizable reduction in tax-- | 24 |
fomc | 1,977 | No, no. That was my next point. I think that that's offset by the prospect, which Henry first mentioned, of the fiscal package, one aspect of which is likely to include something intended to stimulate investment. Perhaps an investment tax credit effective back to the date when the President announces it, or perhaps acc... | 465 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think that's true, but in such an evaluation, it's not just a matter of adding up; we must not neglect the energizing effect that the Texas economy may have on the country as a whole. That's where the pioneers and the innovators and community boosters come from, and that proves a little infectious, partly psychologic... | 91 |
fomc | 1,977 | Hopefully you won't limit those comments to Texas. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | They can still pave--there's a lot to pave-- | 12 |
fomc | 1,977 | The South and the West were settled by immigrants from New England. | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,977 | The best people left. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | It is interesting, I think, that in addition to the strong growth we had in the larger metropolitan areas, that many of the companies coming to Texas are putting their plants out in the smaller communities. | 40 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Mayo, may we hear from you now? | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Your remarks on energizing, remind me, Mr. Chairman, that when I was in Japan, I had the pleasure of going through the [unintelligible] color television plant, which is, if not the largest in the world, close to the largest in the world. There were only 4 lines operating, and we asked the question, "Well, what's going ... | 428 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Mayo. Mr. Willes now, please. | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would just like to pick up on the comment that Dave Lilly made with regard to expansion in capacity. As you know, I have been reporting that the businessmen in our District have had very aggressive expansion plans. At the same time, they have done exactly what you suggested, David, and had si... | 416 |
fomc | 1,977 | What kind of labor settlements have they been making? | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | We haven't had any of those this year of any significance; I don't have any information on that. | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, thank you, Mr. Willes. Mr. Gardner now, please. | 18 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I have very little to say. I felt two months ago that the staff was not expecting as good a fourth quarter as I thought I saw in prospect. I said at the time, "Fortunately, we have to go through the fourth quarter to get to 1978." We are having a good fourth quarter, and I'm not going to abandon the staff now tha... | 456 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Gardner. Mr. Guffey, please. | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think, with regard to the staff projection, we would feel it is a good projection. If it would miss, it would miss on the low side. But with the mix suggested by Governor Partee, it would be a little stronger in the first half of '78, and maybe they would be about right in the second half, so... | 493 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Guffey. I'm not going to take any time in commenting on the economic outlook. I do want to say just one word about the automobile market. The fact that automobile sales have been a little soft recently does not disappoint me at all. I think that consumers are acting rationally in that department. I would... | 363 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Sternlight. Mr. Coldwell. | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | Peter, what can you tell us about dealer attitudes now with regard to interest rate expectations? I noticed some shifting in their [long-term] positions over the last few weeks. Is that indicative of a shift in attitude? | 44 |
fomc | 1,977 | They have tended to lighten their positions, Governor Coldwell, and I'd say that that's consistent with more of a feeling that rates are likely to rise next year. They don't see it as an immediate event, but they tend to feel that, sometime in the first quarter or first half of next year, rates are likely to move highe... | 67 |
fomc | 1,977 | Any other questions? | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | Those are long term and short term? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I've heard it expressed--I think it extends across the board, mainly, President Roos. | 21 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Eastburn, please. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Peter, we have had a 6 point spread on M1 for some time now. Could you tell us what your concept of the zones of indifference are on that? For example, alternative B [in the Bluebook], this time, is 3-1/2 to 9-1/2. What point would the aggregates have to reach before the funds rate would be permitted to go up? | 83 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, it seems to me, President Eastburn, that with a money market directive such as we have had, that one would want to be very closely approaching the outer limits of the indicated range before making any move in the funds rate. | 48 |
fomc | 1,977 | Suppose it is an aggregates directive? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | With an aggregates directive, it would be not quite as wide a zone of indifference. I hesitate to get into the precise numbers on the thing, but at times we have thought, when you get within about 1 percent[age point], say, of the outer bounds, that, with an aggregates directive, then it's time to consider moving away ... | 88 |
fomc | 1,977 | You might have eased a little bit if you had an aggregates directive this time? | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | I don't think we quite would have reached that, not much, but it would have been moving on the horizon. | 23 |
fomc | 1,977 | If he knew what he knew last week in the first week-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,977 | Any other questions? Very well, is there a motion to approve the transactions of the Desk? | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | So moved. | 3 |
fomc | 1,977 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | The motion has been made and seconded, and I take it that the transactions are approved, and we thank you, Mr. Sternlight, for your report. We will move now to Mr. Axilrod, who will instruct us with his customary brevity. | 54 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Secretary's note: This statement was not found in Committee records.] Mr. Chairman, I would also like to inform the Committee of one statistical problem, if I may. As the Committee knows, we have for some years now been making quarterly revisions of the money supply related to the nonmember-bank benchmark. Since early... | 375 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, Mr. Black. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Steve, do you have any clue as to whether this will raise or lower our estimates of the movement in the aggregates? | 24 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, President Black, I properly would not have a clue because this data is simply inadequate. It's not a basis on which you can make a judgment. If I gave you my sense of the clue, there are some nontrivial odds that I would just be misleading you, and I really rather hesitate to do that. | 65 |
fomc | 1,977 | I suspected that that was the case. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | Any other questions? Yes, Mr. Wallich. | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Steve, can you assess the chances of another strong blip early in the first month of the next quarter, and is your high, very wide range on the aggregates--the 6 percentage points we have had the last two times--partly a reflection of that danger? | 55 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, we have checked which of the months and which of the two-month periods are our estimating periods. The worst month, it turns out--and they're all relatively bad--the worst month is January and the worst two-month period is December-January. It's a winner, if I may use that term, by a small margin. So I think if t... | 95 |
fomc | 1,977 | But, of course, that doesn't necessarily mean a blip; it could be the opposite. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | It's not clear whether we'd miss on one side or another. | 12 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think Mr. Wallich was referring to the seasonal that seems to be emerging in seasonally adjusted data. | 22 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, as you recall, January of last year was the first month of a quarter where we did not get a large increase. So we projected about a 7 percent increase. And our experience with January really is that we've been consistently overprojecting that month, projecting a too-high rate of growth. That's been the experience... | 82 |
fomc | 1,977 | But didn't you explain away that January miss in a recent document, that maybe this was covered up by some lack of seasonal reflection and changes in bank statistics? That you might have actually had a blip of significant proportion if the seasonal had been caught? | 50 |
fomc | 1,977 | January '77? Well, your memory, Governor Coldwell, is somewhat better than mine. I don't remember that particularly. | 25 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I saw something recently where you were trying to explain away the April or whatever months you had-- | 21 |
fomc | 1,977 | Not explain away--explain scientifically. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, all right. I thought there was reference in that document to January, but maybe we actually had one in January, too, and that this would mean all four [first-month-of-]quarter months. | 44 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'm not aware of that. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | I have to look up my memory with [unintelligible]. | 14 |
fomc | 1,977 | Any other question or comment? Very well, thank you, Mr. Axilrod. We are at a point now where I need guidance from the Committee as to procedure. Mr. Broida advises me that items 7 and 8 on the agenda can be postponed, and item 6, therefore, is our decisive subject matter still before us. This is something that we can ... | 179 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, just to remind the Governors, some of whom know this, others may have forgotten it, the Presidents' Conference, with the chairmanship of President Winn, is scheduled to meet this afternoon and tomorrow morning, and I suspect that from our standpoint, if we are to try to keep on schedule--at least I can sp... | 92 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, we don't have to make up our mind now. Our thinking about the time for ending may change in the course of our discussion. Sharp differences may emerge within the Committee that will call for a more lengthy debate. On the other hand, we might find ourselves moving toward a consensus rather speedily. So let's get o... | 303 |
fomc | 1,977 | Amen, Mr. Chairman. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'll buy that. | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Guffey. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | I would second the amen that was given over on the other side of the table. | 17 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Eastburn. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'd like to say a word about the general posture--I agree, I think we ought to make no change, essentially. But I'm increasingly disturbed by this 6 point spread that we have in the aggregates for M1. I'd remind the Committee that the original purpose for this was to extend on the downside at a time when we really want... | 165 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, thank you, Mr. Eastburn. Mr. Volcker now, please. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, my way of ending where you are, essentially, Mr. Chairman--I guess I do want to state for the record, or otherwise, that I think we should take account of what's going on in the international markets and the need to attract capital for a long period of time to maintain confidence in that area. I can't really sepa... | 436 |
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