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README.md

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 ---
-configs:
-- config_name: default
-  data_files:
-  - split: '1999'
-    path: data/1999-*
-  - split: '2000'
-    path: data/2000-*
-  - split: '2001'
-    path: data/2001-*
-  - split: '2002'
-    path: data/2002-*
-  - split: '2003'
-    path: data/2003-*
-  - split: '2004'
-    path: data/2004-*
-  - split: '2005'
-    path: data/2005-*
-  - split: '2006'
-    path: data/2006-*
-  - split: '2007'
-    path: data/2007-*
-  - split: '2008'
-    path: data/2008-*
-  - split: '2009'
-    path: data/2009-*
-  - split: '2010'
-    path: data/2010-*
-  - split: '2011'
-    path: data/2011-*
-  - split: '2012'
-    path: data/2012-*
-  - split: '2013'
-    path: data/2013-*
-  - split: '2014'
-    path: data/2014-*
-  - split: '2015'
-    path: data/2015-*
-  - split: '2016'
-    path: data/2016-*
-  - split: '2017'
-    path: data/2017-*
-  - split: '2018'
-    path: data/2018-*
-  - split: '2019'
-    path: data/2019-*
-  - split: '2020'
-    path: data/2020-*
-  - split: '2021'
-    path: data/2021-*
-  - split: '2022'
-    path: data/2022-*
-  - split: '2023'
-    path: data/2023-*
-  - split: '2024'
-    path: data/2024-*
-  - split: '2025'
-    path: data/2025-*
-  - split: '2026'
-    path: data/2026-*
-dataset_info:
-  features:
-  - name: qid
-    dtype: string
-  - name: forecastType
-    dtype: string
-  - name: subtype
-    dtype: string
-  - name: indicator
-    dtype: string
-  - name: transform
-    dtype: string
-  - name: target_period
-    dtype: string
-  - name: info_cutoff
-    dtype: string
-  - name: forecast_end
-    dtype: string
-  - name: answer_release
-    dtype: string
-  - name: question
-    dtype: string
-  - name: options
-    list: string
-  - name: answer_letter
-    dtype: string
-  - name: answer_raw
-    dtype: string
-  - name: unit
-    dtype: string
-  - name: year
-    dtype: int32
-  splits:
-  - name: '1999'
-    num_bytes: 74833
-    num_examples: 236
-  - name: '2000'
-    num_bytes: 99893
-    num_examples: 316
-  - name: '2001'
-    num_bytes: 92808
-    num_examples: 295
-  - name: '2002'
-    num_bytes: 101856
-    num_examples: 322
-  - name: '2003'
-    num_bytes: 98900
-    num_examples: 312
-  - name: '2004'
-    num_bytes: 101665
-    num_examples: 322
-  - name: '2005'
-    num_bytes: 103728
-    num_examples: 328
-  - name: '2006'
-    num_bytes: 101349
-    num_examples: 321
-  - name: '2007'
-    num_bytes: 95693
-    num_examples: 303
-  - name: '2008'
-    num_bytes: 88167
-    num_examples: 280
-  - name: '2009'
-    num_bytes: 100911
-    num_examples: 318
-  - name: '2010'
-    num_bytes: 98705
-    num_examples: 312
-  - name: '2011'
-    num_bytes: 98761
-    num_examples: 313
-  - name: '2012'
-    num_bytes: 100279
-    num_examples: 318
-  - name: '2013'
-    num_bytes: 97127
-    num_examples: 308
-  - name: '2014'
-    num_bytes: 101963
-    num_examples: 323
-  - name: '2015'
-    num_bytes: 97879
-    num_examples: 310
-  - name: '2016'
-    num_bytes: 97110
-    num_examples: 308
-  - name: '2017'
-    num_bytes: 102019
-    num_examples: 324
-  - name: '2018'
-    num_bytes: 98560
-    num_examples: 312
-  - name: '2019'
-    num_bytes: 102219
-    num_examples: 324
-  - name: '2020'
-    num_bytes: 90242
-    num_examples: 287
-  - name: '2021'
-    num_bytes: 102620
-    num_examples: 324
-  - name: '2022'
-    num_bytes: 90958
-    num_examples: 289
-  - name: '2023'
-    num_bytes: 97299
-    num_examples: 308
-  - name: '2024'
-    num_bytes: 94708
-    num_examples: 300
-  - name: '2025'
-    num_bytes: 84725
-    num_examples: 269
-  - name: '2026'
-    num_bytes: 49530
-    num_examples: 155
-  download_size: 958807
-  dataset_size: 2664507
+language: en
+license: cc-by-4.0
+task_categories:
+  - multiple-choice
+  - question-answering
+size_categories:
+  - 1K<n<10K
+pretty_name: FinDeepForecast-Historical-US
+tags:
+  - finance
+  - economics
+  - macro
+  - forecasting
+  - federal-reserve
+  - time-series
+  - benchmark
 ---
-..
+
+# FinDeepForecast-Historical-US
+
+A **historical** version of the [FinDeepForecast](https://openfinarena.com/fin-deep-forecast/) benchmark from OpenFinArena, covering **1999–2026** with ground-truth derived from real FRED time series.
+
+Strictly follows the paper's two-track taxonomy:
+- **Recurrent** — periodic numerical forecasts (CPI/GDP/Treasury/etc. value at a future date)
+- **Non-Recurrent** — binary YES/NO forecasts on specific upcoming scheduled events (FOMC rate decisions, CPI/NFP release surprises, weekly market thresholds)
+
+## Highlights
+
+| Metric | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Total questions | **8,437** |
+| Recurrent | 6,366 (75.5%) — multiple choice (4 options) |
+| Non-Recurrent | 2,071 (24.5%) — binary YES/NO |
+| Years covered | 1999–2026 (28 splits) |
+| Indicators | 49 US macro/market series from FRED |
+| Avg per year | ~300 questions |
+
+## Quick Start
+
+```python
+from datasets import load_dataset
+
+# Single year
+ds = load_dataset("TheFinAI/pre_test", split="2008")
+
+# Filter by forecast type
+recurrent_2008 = ds.filter(lambda x: x["forecastType"] == "Recurrent")
+non_recurrent_2008 = ds.filter(lambda x: x["forecastType"] == "Non-Recurrent")
+```
+
+## Recurrent (paper-aligned periodic forecast)
+
+> *"Forecast the value of [US CPI YoY Inflation Rate] for June 2010.
+> (Information available up to 2010-04-15.)"*
+>
+> A) 1.45%   B) 2.04%   C) 2.42%   D) 1.85%
+
+- Format: 4-option MCQ with numeric values
+- Generated for 49 indicators × 4 quarters/year × {level, yoy_pct, yoy_pp} transforms
+- `info_cutoff` set ~60 days before target period
+
+## Non-Recurrent (paper-aligned binary YES/NO)
+
+Follows the original paper's format: "Will [specific event] happen by [date]?"
+
+### 8 templates (all anchored to scheduled events)
+
+| Template | Question pattern | Per year |
+|---|---|---|
+| T1 `fomc_cut` | Will FOMC cut rates ≥25bp at [date]? | ~8 |
+| T2 `fomc_hike` | Will FOMC raise rates ≥25bp at [date]? | ~8 |
+| T3 `fomc_hold` | Will FOMC keep rates unchanged at [date]? | ~8 |
+| T4 `cpi_release_threshold` | Will CPI YoY for [month] exceed [threshold]%? | 12 |
+| T5 `nfp_release_threshold` | Will NFP for [month] show change > [threshold]? | 12 |
+| T6 `gdp_release_threshold` | Will GDP YoY for [quarter] exceed [threshold]%? | 4 |
+| T7 `vix_weekly_spike` | Will VIX exceed [threshold] in week ending [date]? | 12 |
+| T8 `nasdaq_weekly_gain` | Will NASDAQ gain more than [X]% in week ending [date]? | 12 |
+
+### Non-Recurrent example (real)
+
+> *"Will the FOMC cut the federal funds target rate by at least 25 basis points
+> at its meeting on 2020-03-15?"*
+>
+> A) YES   B) NO
+>
+> ✓ Answer: A (YES) — Fed cut to zero on emergency Sunday meeting
+
+### YES/NO balance (across all 2,071 NR questions)
+
+| Subtype | n | YES% | NO% |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|
+| vix_weekly_spike | 328 | 51% | 49% |
+| nasdaq_weekly_gain | 328 | 41% | 59% |
+| nfp_release_threshold | 326 | 49% | 51% |
+| cpi_release_threshold | 313 | 52% | 48% |
+| fomc_cut | 224 | 17% | 83% |
+| fomc_hike | 224 | 19% | 81% |
+| fomc_hold | 224 | 64% | 36% |
+| gdp_release_threshold | 104 | 47% | 53% |
+
+(FOMC imbalance reflects reality: most meetings are "hold" decisions.)
+
+## Schema
+
+| Field | Type | Description |
+|---|---|---|
+| `qid` | string | Unique question ID |
+| `forecastType` | string | `Recurrent` or `Non-Recurrent` |
+| `subtype` | string | Fine-grained subtype |
+| `indicator` | string | Primary FRED series ID |
+| `transform` | string | `level` / `yoy_pct` / `yoy_pp` (Recurrent), `""` (NR) |
+| `target_period` | string | Period asked about |
+| `info_cutoff` | string | YYYY-MM-DD — latest info allowed |
+| `forecast_end` | string | YYYY-MM-DD — last day of horizon |
+| `answer_release` | string | NR only — when truth becomes verifiable |
+| `question` | string | Question text |
+| `options` | list[string] | Length 4 (Recurrent) or 2 (NR) |
+| `answer_letter` | string | A/B/C/D (Recurrent) or A/B (NR) |
+| `answer_raw` | string | Underlying answer value |
+| `unit` | string | `%`, `index`, `binary`, etc. |
+| `year` | int | Convenience field |
+
+## Indicators (49 FRED series)
+
+| Category | Examples |
+|---|---|
+| Inflation (8) | CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, PCEPI, PCEPILFE, PPIACO, PPIFIS, DCOILWTICO, DCOILBRENTEU |
+| Labor (6) | UNRATE, PAYEMS, CIVPART, EMRATIO, AHETPI, ICSA |
+| Growth (4) | GDPC1, GDP, INDPRO, TCU |
+| Rates (8) | FEDFUNDS, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30, T10Y2Y, MORTGAGE30US |
+| Money (4) | M2SL, BOGMBASE, TOTBKCR, CCSA |
+| Consumer (5) | UMCSENT, PCE, PSAVERT, RSAFS, DSPI |
+| Housing (3) | HOUST, PERMIT, CSUSHPINSA |
+| Manufacturing (3) | DGORDER, BOPGSTB, NEWORDER |
+| Market (8) | SP500, NASDAQCOM, DJIA, VIXCLS, DTWEXBGS, DEXUSEU, DEXJPUS, DEXCHUS |
+
+## Coverage Notes
+
+- **1999** has fewer Recurrent questions (~180) because some indicators
+  (`PPIFIS`, `SP500`, `DJIA`, `DTWEXBGS`) start later than 1999 on FRED.
+- **2026** is a partial year (data through April/May 2026); contains only
+  questions whose ground truth is verifiable.
+- All NR questions tied to FOMC meetings, BLS releases (CPI/NFP), BEA releases (GDP),
+  or weekly market thresholds — all from scheduled/public calendars.
+
+## Differences from the Original FinDeepForecast
+
+| Aspect | Original (live, 2025-10 → 2025-12) | This dataset (historical) |
+|---|---|---|
+| Coverage | 10 weeks | 28 years |
+| Markets | 8 (US/UK/CN/HK/JP/SG/DE/FR) | US only |
+| Recurrent total | 296 macro + 699 corporate | 6,366 (macro only) |
+| Non-Recurrent total | 128 macro + 247 corporate | 2,071 (macro only) |
+| Ground truth | Future outcome (live) | Historical realized values |
+| Format | Numeric (Rec) + YES/NO (NR) | **Same** — 4-option MCQ + YES/NO |
+
+This historical version sacrifices the live "no memorization" property of the
+original benchmark in exchange for reproducible offline evaluation across 28 years.
+
+## License
+
+CC-BY-4.0. Underlying FRED data is in the public domain (FRED API terms).
+
+## Citation
+
+```bibtex
+@article{findeepforecast,
+  title={FinDeepForecast: A Live Benchmark for Financial Forecasting with LLMs},
+  author={OpenFinArena},
+  year={2026},
+  url={https://openfinarena.com/fin-deep-forecast/}
+}
+```