Update README.md

README.md

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----
-language: en
-license: cc-by-4.0
-task_categories:
-  - multiple-choice
-  - question-answering
-size_categories:
-  - 10K<n<100K
-pretty_name: FinDeepForecast-Historical-US
-tags:
-  - finance
-  - economics
-  - macro
-  - forecasting
-  - federal-reserve
-  - time-series
-  - benchmark
-configs:
-  - config_name: default
-    data_files:
-      - split: "1999"
-        path: "data/1999-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2000"
-        path: "data/2000-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2001"
-        path: "data/2001-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2002"
-        path: "data/2002-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2003"
-        path: "data/2003-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2004"
-        path: "data/2004-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2005"
-        path: "data/2005-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2006"
-        path: "data/2006-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2007"
-        path: "data/2007-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2008"
-        path: "data/2008-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2009"
-        path: "data/2009-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2010"
-        path: "data/2010-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2011"
-        path: "data/2011-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2012"
-        path: "data/2012-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2013"
-        path: "data/2013-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2014"
-        path: "data/2014-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2015"
-        path: "data/2015-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2016"
-        path: "data/2016-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2017"
-        path: "data/2017-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2018"
-        path: "data/2018-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2019"
-        path: "data/2019-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2020"
-        path: "data/2020-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2021"
-        path: "data/2021-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2022"
-        path: "data/2022-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2023"
-        path: "data/2023-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2024"
-        path: "data/2024-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2025"
-        path: "data/2025-*.parquet"
-      - split: "2026"
-        path: "data/2026-*.parquet"
----
-
-# FinDeepForecast-Historical-US
-
-A historical multiple-choice extension of the [FinDeepForecast](https://openfinarena.com/fin-deep-forecast/) benchmark from OpenFinArena.
-While the original FinDeepForecast is a **live** benchmark whose ground truth can
-only be revealed by the future, this dataset uses **realized** historical values
-from 1999 to 2026 as ground truth, enabling reproducible offline evaluation.
-
-## Highlights
-
-- **10,868 multiple-choice questions** across **28 years** (1999–2026)
-- **49 US macro / market indicators** sourced from [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)
-  (St. Louis Fed) — CPI, GDP, Fed Funds, Treasury yields, NASDAQ, VIX, oil, FX, etc.
-- **Two question types** (aligned with the original paper):
-  - **Recurrent** — forecast periodic data releases (CPI for next month, GDP for next quarter, etc.)
-  - **Situational** — non-periodic queries: yearly stats, trends, and event-driven
-    questions for ~35 hand-curated macro events (FOMC decisions, NBER recessions,
-    Lehman, COVID, SVB, etc.)
-- **Year-as-split** layout: each year is a separate split for curriculum / leak-free evaluation
-
-## Quick Start
-
-```python
-from datasets import load_dataset
-
-# Load a single year
-ds = load_dataset("TheFinAI/pre_test", split="2008")
-print(ds[0])
-
-# Load all years
-ds = load_dataset("TheFinAI/pre_test")
-print(ds)  # DatasetDict with keys "1999"..."2026"
-```
-
-## Distribution
-
-| forecastType | subtype                  | Count |  %   |
-|--------------|--------------------------|------:|-----:|
-| Recurrent    | recurrent                | 6,425 | 59.1 |
-| Situational  | trend                    | 1,202 | 11.1 |
-| Situational  | window_max               | 968   |  8.9 |
-| Situational  | window_min               | 966   |  8.9 |
-| Situational  | yearly_return            | 537   |  4.9 |
-| Situational  | event_value              | 426   |  3.9 |
-| Situational  | event_pp_change          | 236   |  2.2 |
-| Situational  | event_cumulative_return  | 108   |  1.0 |
-
-**Per-year size**: 400 questions for full years 2000–2025; 338 for 1999 (data
-limited); 130 for 2026 (partial year, only forecasts whose target is in the past).
-
-**Answer letter balance**: A 24.8% / B 25.3% / C 24.7% / D 25.1% (uniformly distributed).
-
-## Question Schema
-
-| Field           | Type            | Description                                              |
-|-----------------|-----------------|----------------------------------------------------------|
-| `qid`           | string          | Unique question ID                                       |
-| `forecastType`  | string          | `Recurrent` or `Situational`                             |
-| `subtype`       | string          | One of 8 fine-grained subtypes (see table above)         |
-| `indicator`     | string          | FRED series ID (e.g. `CPIAUCSL`, `DGS10`, `NASDAQCOM`)   |
-| `transform`     | string          | `level`, `yoy_pct`, or `yoy_pp`                          |
-| `target_period` | string          | The period the question asks about                       |
-| `info_cutoff`   | string (date)   | Latest information allowed (YYYY-MM-DD)                  |
-| `question`      | string          | Question text                                            |
-| `options`       | list of strings | 4 options, format `"A) ..."`                             |
-| `answer_letter` | string          | `A`, `B`, `C`, or `D`                                    |
-| `answer_raw`    | string          | The displayed value of the correct answer                |
-| `unit`          | string          | `%`, `pp`, `index`, `usd_billion`, `count`, `fx_rate`, etc. |
-| `year`          | int             | Convenience field for filtering                          |
-
-## Question Type Examples
-
-### Recurrent (periodic forecast)
-> *Forecast the value of [US CPI YoY Inflation Rate] for June 2010. (Information available up to 2010-04-15.)*
->
-> A) 1.45% &nbsp;&nbsp; B) 2.04% &nbsp;&nbsp; C) 2.42% &nbsp;&nbsp; D) 1.85%
-
-### Situational — trend
-> *What was the OVERALL TREND of [US 10Y Treasury Yield] from 2010-01-01 to 2010-12-31?*
->
-> A) Volatile &nbsp;&nbsp; B) Rising significantly &nbsp;&nbsp; C) Roughly flat &nbsp;&nbsp; D) Falling significantly
-
-### Situational — window stat
-> *During 2010, what was the LOWEST value of [VIX]?*
-
-### Situational — event-driven
-> *Following Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on 2008-09-15, what was the cumulative %
-> change in [NASDAQ] over the 20 calendar days after the event?*
->
-> A) -14.54% &nbsp;&nbsp; B) -8.32% &nbsp;&nbsp; C) -22.71% &nbsp;&nbsp; D) -2.10%
-
-## Quality Audit (all checks passed)
-
-| Check                                              | Result |
-|----------------------------------------------------|--------|
-| Distractor uniqueness (4 distinct options)         | 0 issues |
-| Date arithmetic (`info_cutoff ≤ target_period`)    | 0 issues |
-| Required-field preservation in question text       | 0 issues |
-| Per-subtype A/B/C/D letter balance (within ±8%)    | 0 issues |
-| Event-response sanity (Lehman, COVID, etc.)        | All consistent with history |
-
-## Coverage Notes
-
-- **1999** has only 338 questions because 4 indicators
-  (`PPIFIS`, `SP500`, `DJIA`, `DTWEXBGS`) start later than 1999 on FRED.
-- **2026** is a partial year (data through April 2026); contains only forecast-style
-  questions whose target lies in the past.
-- Some indicators (`SP500`, `DJIA`) have FRED data only since 2016 (10-year limit on
-  the free tier). For historical equity exposure, `NASDAQCOM` has full 1999+ coverage.
-
-## Curated Events (Situational - event_driven)
-
-35 hand-verified events 1999–2024, including 32 FOMC impactful decisions and
-3 NBER recession periods. Examples:
-- 2001-01-03 — Fed emergency cut (dot-com)
-- 2008-09-15 — Lehman Brothers bankruptcy
-- 2008-12-16 — Fed cuts to zero (ZIRP)
-- 2010-05-06 — Flash Crash
-- 2013-05-22 — Taper Tantrum
-- 2020-03-15 — Fed emergency rate cut + $700B QE (COVID)
-- 2022-03-16 — Fed first hike of cycle
-- 2023-03-10 — Silicon Valley Bank collapse
-- 2024-09-18 — Fed first cut of cycle
-
-## Data Sources
-
-All data fetched from public APIs/sites:
-- **FRED** (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) — all 49 indicator time series
-- **Federal Reserve** — FOMC meeting dates
-- **NBER** — Business Cycle Dating Committee recession dates
-- **Public news archives** — for shock-event dates and descriptions
-
-## License
-
-CC-BY-4.0. Original FRED data is in the public domain.
-
-## Related
-
-- **Original FinDeepForecast** (live benchmark): https://openfinarena.com/fin-deep-forecast/
-- **Code & dataset generation**: see the `competitions_historical/` directory in
-  the [OpenFinArena GitHub repo](https://github.com/The-FinAI/OpenFinArena).
-
-## Citation
-
-If you use this dataset, please cite the original FinDeepForecast paper:
-
-```bibtex
-@article{findeepforecast,
-  title={FinDeepForecast: A Live Benchmark for Financial Forecasting with LLMs},
-  author={OpenFinArena},
-  year={2026},
-  url={https://openfinarena.com/fin-deep-forecast/}
-}
-```
+..