Datasets:

Threadbaire
/

compute-watch

date,category,event,source_name,source_url,first_recorded_in,causal_claim
2026-08-11,market,"CME Group said it would start selling bets on chip rent (futures) on 5 October, following Silicon Data's prices. By No. 0 it had not started.",CME Group,https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/11/cme_group_and_silicondatatolaunchcomputefuturesonoctober5tounloc.html,0,none
2026-08-17,lending,"If OpenAI stops paying for its data-centre space at a new campus in Ohio, which will hold Nvidia's chips, Nvidia will cover what the landlord can't recover, up to $105 billion. This covers the rent on the space, not the value of the chips (Nvidia's filing calls it a residual value guarantee). The site is due to open from 2028, and OpenAI has agreed to pay Nvidia back.",Nvidia Form 8-K,https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001045810/988230c7-dd29-466b-92dc-5cf34f65b60f.pdf,0,none
2026-08-21,market,"The CFTC, the US agency that has to allow bets on chip rent (compute futures) before anyone can trade them, asked companies and experts for their views. Among its questions: how much chip rent is agreed at prices anyone can see, rather than in private deals, and how to stop a few deals from swinging the price wildly. Views are due by 20 October.",Federal Register,https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-21/pdf/2026-17163.pdf,0,none
2026-08-27,supply,"Nvidia delivered its first Vera Rubin chips, the generation after Blackwell (B200, B300), to AWS.",Nvidia,https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/vera-cpu-delivery/,0,none
2026-09-17,prices,"Nebius raised its hourly prices for selected Nvidia chips by 17-21% from 1 October, its second rise in three months.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/,0,none
2026-09-17,prices,"CoreWeave said it was still signing new contracts at higher prices, including short ones of three to six months.",CoreWeave,https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Continues-to-Contract-New-Compute-Capacity-at-Higher-Prices/default.aspx,0,none
2026-09-26,demand,"OpenAI paused training and tool-using work on its most capable models, its second pause in three months. Its public services weren't affected.",Fortune,https://fortune.com/2026/09/26/openai-ai-agents-secure-sandbox-escape-training-pause-second-time-hugging-face-hack/,0,none
2026-09-29,lending,Nvidia was reported to be working with insurers and the broker Howden Re to spread the risk on loans backed by its chips.,Financial Times,https://www.ft.com/content/d6a9f5df-08d0-4f80-ad2d-5d8a17e2cc82,0,none
2026-09-29,demand,"Anthropic's IPO prospectus lists at least $518 billion of infrastructure commitments over about a decade, roughly 80% payable whether used or not.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/,0,none
2026-09-29,market,"Intercontinental Exchange said it would show test prices for bets on chip rent from 5 October, following Ornn's prices. Nobody can trade them yet.",ICE Futures U.S.,https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf,0,none
2026-09-30,demand,"Google announced Gemini 4 Argon. The model is able to write a single answer up to 1 million tokens long (roughly 750,000 words, up from about 64,000 tokens) and will go to a small group of testers first. Google says its Gemini models have run on its own chips for years.",Google,https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/,0,none
2026-10-01,lending,"Banks and investors were reported to value Nvidia's chips lower than Nvidia does, and to want stronger guarantees before lending against them.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-ai-boom-gets-wall-street-reality-check-2026-10-01/,0,none
2026-10-01,lending,"Anthropic agreed to pay $125.2 billion over five years for the use of chip capacity. Broadcom, a chipmaker, agreed to lend it up to $42 billion towards that. Instead of being repaid, Broadcom can choose to take shares in Anthropic (a convertible note).",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/business/broadcom-lend-anthropic-up-42-billion-lease-its-chips-filing-says-2026-10-01/,0,none
2026-10-09,supply,"Firmus, an Australian firm that rents out AI chips, withdrew its stock market listing after weak demand at its asking price.",Forbes Australia,https://www.forbes.com.au/news/investing/firmus-44-billion-ipo-collapse-explained/,1,none
2026-10-16,lending,"In the week to 16 October, CoreWeave's shares fell more than 15%, the yield on its 2030 bonds rose about 5 percentage points to near 16%, and the cost of insuring its debt against default climbed to about 12% a year.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/why-coreweave-is-crosshairs-ai-scare-2026-10-16/,1,none
2026-10-18,supply,"Microsoft withdrew as the main tenant of Nscale's planned site at Loughton, England. Grid power there was reportedly not expected before the 2030s. Microsoft said the decision relates to a single site.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/microsoft-pulls-out-uk-data-center-deal-with-nscale-telegraph-reports-2026-10-18/,1,none
2026-10-20,supply,"SpaceX said it aims to rent out about half its AI computing capacity, at effectively the spot-market rate rather than on long-term contracts.",SpaceX Q3 2026 webcast transcript,https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/content_files/SpaceX-Third-Quarter-2026-Webcast-Transcript.pdf,1,none
2026-10-20,market,"The CFTC's comment period on compute derivatives closed. Comments came from CME, ICE, both index makers, trading firms, investors and academics; this watch's author filed comment 0060.",Regulations.gov,https://www.regulations.gov/comment/CFTC-2026-1850-0060,1,none
2026-10-21,supply,NextDC cut its guidance after grid works for its Melbourne M3 site were suspended; they won't restart before February 2027.,NEXTDC announcement,https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/news/EQS-Adhoc-NEXTDC-Limited-M3-Melbourne-Power-Delay-and-Revised-FY27-Guidance-7ecf06f9-08b6-4088-a7bf-0a3c547b9c34,1,none
2026-10-26,lending,"Anthropic's $63 billion North Star financing, repaid from its lease payments for Google-designed chips, was announced. The Wall Street Journal reported that several banks had considered pulling out, and that it went through at higher rates, with more support from Broadcom. Final rates weren't published.",Wall Street Journal,https://www.wsj.com/finance/broadcom-ceo-intervened-to-seal-63-billion-anthropic-debt-deal-c807754f,1,none
2026-10-26,demand,Anthropic filed its public IPO prospectus (S-1).,SEC EDGAR,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm,1,none
2026-10-27,supply,"Nvidia and Oracle said Vera Rubin systems were generally available on Oracle's cloud. No public rental price was given, and Rubin isn't in either index yet.",Nvidia,https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-and-oracle-expand-nvidia-vera-rubin-to-multi-gigawatt-scale-and-bring-nvidia-vera-cpu-to-oracle-cloud-infrastructure,1,none
2026-10-28,prices,"Alphabet said it started using third-party compute capacity at the end of Q3 because of the supply-constrained environment, and will ramp usage in Q4.",Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call,https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2026-Q3-Earnings-Call-2026-Ujou16CTw9/default.aspx,1,none
2026-10-28,prices,"Microsoft said customer demand continues to exceed available supply, and that token prices were higher than it expected.",Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call,https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2027/earnings-fy-2027-q1,1,none
2026-10-28,supply,Microsoft said some contracts for chips rented from outside providers were delayed to January-June 2027.,Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call,https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2027/earnings-fy-2027-q1,1,none
2026-10-28,supply,"SK hynix said long-term agreements with 14 major customers cover more than half its 2027-28 production capacity, typically for five years.",SK hynix,https://news.skhynix.com/en/q3-2026-business-results/,1,none
2026-10-31,supply,Elon Musk said SpaceX's Colossus 2 site would hold about 1.2 million Blackwell chips by the end of the year.,X (Elon Musk),https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2116596535433871630,1,none
2026-11-01,prices,Users of Grok Bot reported reaching their usage limits much faster than usual. Elon Musk said the cost of serving it was unsustainably high relative to revenue.,X (Elon Musk),https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2116992258520064397,1,none
2026-11-02,market,"ICE has listed monthly futures on Ornn's B200 and H100 prices, December 2026 to December 2027, and publishes daily settlement prices; no contract had traded as of this date. CME's futures on Silicon Data's prices had not launched.",ICE,https://www.ice.com/products/83050009/Ornn-Compute-Price-Index-OCPI-B200-Future,1,none

	date,category,event,source_name,source_url,first_recorded_in,causal_claim
	2026-08-11,market,"CME Group said it would start selling bets on chip rent (futures) on 5 October, following Silicon Data's prices. By No. 0 it had not started.",CME Group,https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/11/cme_group_and_silicondatatolaunchcomputefuturesonoctober5tounloc.html,0,none
	2026-08-17,lending,"If OpenAI stops paying for its data-centre space at a new campus in Ohio, which will hold Nvidia's chips, Nvidia will cover what the landlord can't recover, up to $105 billion. This covers the rent on the space, not the value of the chips (Nvidia's filing calls it a residual value guarantee). The site is due to open from 2028, and OpenAI has agreed to pay Nvidia back.",Nvidia Form 8-K,https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001045810/988230c7-dd29-466b-92dc-5cf34f65b60f.pdf,0,none
	2026-08-21,market,"The CFTC, the US agency that has to allow bets on chip rent (compute futures) before anyone can trade them, asked companies and experts for their views. Among its questions: how much chip rent is agreed at prices anyone can see, rather than in private deals, and how to stop a few deals from swinging the price wildly. Views are due by 20 October.",Federal Register,https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-21/pdf/2026-17163.pdf,0,none
	2026-08-27,supply,"Nvidia delivered its first Vera Rubin chips, the generation after Blackwell (B200, B300), to AWS.",Nvidia,https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/vera-cpu-delivery/,0,none
	2026-09-17,prices,"Nebius raised its hourly prices for selected Nvidia chips by 17-21% from 1 October, its second rise in three months.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/,0,none
	2026-09-17,prices,"CoreWeave said it was still signing new contracts at higher prices, including short ones of three to six months.",CoreWeave,https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Continues-to-Contract-New-Compute-Capacity-at-Higher-Prices/default.aspx,0,none
	2026-09-26,demand,"OpenAI paused training and tool-using work on its most capable models, its second pause in three months. Its public services weren't affected.",Fortune,https://fortune.com/2026/09/26/openai-ai-agents-secure-sandbox-escape-training-pause-second-time-hugging-face-hack/,0,none
	2026-09-29,lending,Nvidia was reported to be working with insurers and the broker Howden Re to spread the risk on loans backed by its chips.,Financial Times,https://www.ft.com/content/d6a9f5df-08d0-4f80-ad2d-5d8a17e2cc82,0,none
	2026-09-29,demand,"Anthropic's IPO prospectus lists at least $518 billion of infrastructure commitments over about a decade, roughly 80% payable whether used or not.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/,0,none
	2026-09-29,market,"Intercontinental Exchange said it would show test prices for bets on chip rent from 5 October, following Ornn's prices. Nobody can trade them yet.",ICE Futures U.S.,https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf,0,none
	2026-09-30,demand,"Google announced Gemini 4 Argon. The model is able to write a single answer up to 1 million tokens long (roughly 750,000 words, up from about 64,000 tokens) and will go to a small group of testers first. Google says its Gemini models have run on its own chips for years.",Google,https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/,0,none
	2026-10-01,lending,"Banks and investors were reported to value Nvidia's chips lower than Nvidia does, and to want stronger guarantees before lending against them.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-ai-boom-gets-wall-street-reality-check-2026-10-01/,0,none
	2026-10-01,lending,"Anthropic agreed to pay $125.2 billion over five years for the use of chip capacity. Broadcom, a chipmaker, agreed to lend it up to $42 billion towards that. Instead of being repaid, Broadcom can choose to take shares in Anthropic (a convertible note).",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/business/broadcom-lend-anthropic-up-42-billion-lease-its-chips-filing-says-2026-10-01/,0,none
	2026-10-09,supply,"Firmus, an Australian firm that rents out AI chips, withdrew its stock market listing after weak demand at its asking price.",Forbes Australia,https://www.forbes.com.au/news/investing/firmus-44-billion-ipo-collapse-explained/,1,none
	2026-10-16,lending,"In the week to 16 October, CoreWeave's shares fell more than 15%, the yield on its 2030 bonds rose about 5 percentage points to near 16%, and the cost of insuring its debt against default climbed to about 12% a year.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/why-coreweave-is-crosshairs-ai-scare-2026-10-16/,1,none
	2026-10-18,supply,"Microsoft withdrew as the main tenant of Nscale's planned site at Loughton, England. Grid power there was reportedly not expected before the 2030s. Microsoft said the decision relates to a single site.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/microsoft-pulls-out-uk-data-center-deal-with-nscale-telegraph-reports-2026-10-18/,1,none
	2026-10-20,supply,"SpaceX said it aims to rent out about half its AI computing capacity, at effectively the spot-market rate rather than on long-term contracts.",SpaceX Q3 2026 webcast transcript,https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/content_files/SpaceX-Third-Quarter-2026-Webcast-Transcript.pdf,1,none
	2026-10-20,market,"The CFTC's comment period on compute derivatives closed. Comments came from CME, ICE, both index makers, trading firms, investors and academics; this watch's author filed comment 0060.",Regulations.gov,https://www.regulations.gov/comment/CFTC-2026-1850-0060,1,none
	2026-10-21,supply,NextDC cut its guidance after grid works for its Melbourne M3 site were suspended; they won't restart before February 2027.,NEXTDC announcement,https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/news/EQS-Adhoc-NEXTDC-Limited-M3-Melbourne-Power-Delay-and-Revised-FY27-Guidance-7ecf06f9-08b6-4088-a7bf-0a3c547b9c34,1,none
	2026-10-26,lending,"Anthropic's $63 billion North Star financing, repaid from its lease payments for Google-designed chips, was announced. The Wall Street Journal reported that several banks had considered pulling out, and that it went through at higher rates, with more support from Broadcom. Final rates weren't published.",Wall Street Journal,https://www.wsj.com/finance/broadcom-ceo-intervened-to-seal-63-billion-anthropic-debt-deal-c807754f,1,none
	2026-10-26,demand,Anthropic filed its public IPO prospectus (S-1).,SEC EDGAR,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm,1,none
	2026-10-27,supply,"Nvidia and Oracle said Vera Rubin systems were generally available on Oracle's cloud. No public rental price was given, and Rubin isn't in either index yet.",Nvidia,https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-and-oracle-expand-nvidia-vera-rubin-to-multi-gigawatt-scale-and-bring-nvidia-vera-cpu-to-oracle-cloud-infrastructure,1,none
	2026-10-28,prices,"Alphabet said it started using third-party compute capacity at the end of Q3 because of the supply-constrained environment, and will ramp usage in Q4.",Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call,https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2026-Q3-Earnings-Call-2026-Ujou16CTw9/default.aspx,1,none
	2026-10-28,prices,"Microsoft said customer demand continues to exceed available supply, and that token prices were higher than it expected.",Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call,https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2027/earnings-fy-2027-q1,1,none
	2026-10-28,supply,Microsoft said some contracts for chips rented from outside providers were delayed to January-June 2027.,Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call,https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2027/earnings-fy-2027-q1,1,none
	2026-10-28,supply,"SK hynix said long-term agreements with 14 major customers cover more than half its 2027-28 production capacity, typically for five years.",SK hynix,https://news.skhynix.com/en/q3-2026-business-results/,1,none
	2026-10-31,supply,Elon Musk said SpaceX's Colossus 2 site would hold about 1.2 million Blackwell chips by the end of the year.,X (Elon Musk),https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2116596535433871630,1,none
	2026-11-01,prices,Users of Grok Bot reported reaching their usage limits much faster than usual. Elon Musk said the cost of serving it was unsustainably high relative to revenue.,X (Elon Musk),https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2116992258520064397,1,none
	2026-11-02,market,"ICE has listed monthly futures on Ornn's B200 and H100 prices, December 2026 to December 2027, and publishes daily settlement prices; no contract had traded as of this date. CME's futures on Silicon Data's prices had not launched.",ICE,https://www.ice.com/products/83050009/Ornn-Compute-Price-Index-OCPI-B200-Future,1,none