Upload 6 files

events.csv

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+date,category,event,source_name,source_url,first_recorded_in,causal_claim
+2026-08-11,market,"CME Group said it would start selling bets on chip rent (futures) on 5 October, following Silicon Data's prices. By No. 0 it had not started.",CME Group,https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/11/cme_group_and_silicondatatolaunchcomputefuturesonoctober5tounloc.html,0,none
+2026-08-17,lending,"If OpenAI stops paying for its data-centre space at a new campus in Ohio, which will hold Nvidia's chips, Nvidia will cover what the landlord can't recover, up to $105 billion. This covers the rent on the space, not the value of the chips (Nvidia's filing calls it a residual value guarantee). The site is due to open from 2028, and OpenAI has agreed to pay Nvidia back.",Nvidia Form 8-K,https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001045810/988230c7-dd29-466b-92dc-5cf34f65b60f.pdf,0,none
+2026-08-21,market,"The CFTC, the US agency that has to allow bets on chip rent (compute futures) before anyone can trade them, asked companies and experts for their views. Among its questions: how much chip rent is agreed at prices anyone can see, rather than in private deals, and how to stop a few deals from swinging the price wildly. Views are due by 20 October.",Federal Register,https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-21/pdf/2026-17163.pdf,0,none
+2026-08-27,supply,"Vera Rubin chips, the generation after Blackwell (B200, B300), to AWS.",Nvidia,https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/vera-cpu-delivery/,0,none
+2026-09-17,prices,"Nebius raised its hourly prices for selected Nvidia chips by 17-21% from 1 October, its second rise in three months.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/,0,none
+2026-09-17,prices,"CoreWeave said it was still signing new contracts at higher prices, including short ones of three to six months.",CoreWeave,https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Continues-to-Contract-New-Compute-Capacity-at-Higher-Prices/default.aspx,0,none
+2026-09-26,demand,"OpenAI paused training and tool-using work on its most capable models, its second pause in three months. Its public services weren't affected.",Fortune,https://fortune.com/2026/09/26/openai-ai-agents-secure-sandbox-escape-training-pause-second-time-hugging-face-hack/,0,none
+2026-09-29,lending,"Nvidia was reported to be working with insurers and the broker Howden Re to spread the risk on loans backed by its chips.",Financial Times,https://www.ft.com/content/d6a9f5df-08d0-4f80-ad2d-5d8a17e2cc82,0,none
+2026-09-29,demand,"Anthropic's IPO prospectus lists at least $518 billion of infrastructure commitments over about a decade, roughly 80% payable whether used or not.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/,0,none
+2026-09-29,market,"Intercontinental Exchange said it would show test prices for bets on chip rent from 5 October, following Ornn's prices. Nobody can trade them yet.",ICE Futures U.S.,https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf,0,none
+2026-09-30,demand,"Google announced Gemini 4 Argon. The model is able to write a single answer up to 1 million tokens long (roughly 750,000 words, up from about 64,000 tokens) and will go to a small group of testers first. Google says its Gemini models have run on its own chips for years.",Google,https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/,0,none
+2026-10-01,lending,"Banks and investors were reported to value Nvidia's chips lower than Nvidia does, and to want stronger guarantees before lending against them.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-ai-boom-gets-wall-street-reality-check-2026-10-01/,0,none
+2026-10-01,lending,"Anthropic agreed to pay $125.2 billion over five years for the use of chip capacity. Broadcom, a chipmaker, agreed to lend it up to $42 billion towards that. Instead of being repaid, Broadcom can choose to take shares in Anthropic (a convertible note)  .",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/business/broadcom-lend-anthropic-up-42-billion-lease-its-chips-filing-says-2026-10-01/,0,none

ladder.csv

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+note,recorded_on,index,chip,provider_type,ratio_to_h100
+0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,A100,specialist,0.57
+0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,H100,specialist,1.00
+0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,H200,specialist,1.22
+0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,B200,specialist,2.12
+0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,B300,specialist,2.45
+0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,H100,hyperscaler,2.60
+0,2026-09-30,Ornn,B200,all,2.99

lifespans.csv

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+company,server_lifespan_years,detail,filing,source_url,first_recorded_in
+Alphabet,6,,Form 10-K FY2025,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/goog-20251231.htm,0
+Oracle,6,,Form 10-K FY2026,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm,0
+CoreWeave,6,"Risk factors list inability to redeploy chips after their first contracts end",Form 10-K FY2025,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000104/crwv-20251231.htm,0
+Meta,5.5,,Form 10-K FY2025,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026003942/meta-20251231.htm,0
+Amazon,5-6,"Part of the fleet shortened from 6 to 5 years in 2025",Form 10-K FY2025,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm,0
+Microsoft,2-6,,Form 10-K FY2026,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm,0

loans.csv

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+disclosed_on,borrower,amount_usd_bn,pricing,collateral,filing,source_url,first_recorded_in
+2026-09-18,Nscale,1.4,"5 percentage points over the benchmark rate",GPUs,Form S-1,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm,0

no-00.md

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+---
+note: 0
+title: "The Compute Watch - No. 0: The Baseline"
+
+note_date: 2026-10-06
+
+silicondata_recorded_on: 2026-10-02
+
+ornn_recorded_on: 2026-09-30
+
+canonical_url: https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-00.html
+
+author: Lida Liberopoulou
+
+license: CC BY-SA 4.0
+
+test_status: inactive (shortage not easing)
+---
+
+# No. 0: The Baseline
+
+## What this is
+
+The Compute Watch is a monthly public record of what AI chips (GPUs) rent for, what lenders charge against them, and how long their owners say they last. Much of the AI buildout is financed with debt, and chip rent is what repays it. Owners' accounts assume a server stays in use for five or six years, while a better chip arrives every year or two. The watch checks, once a month, whether the rent supports that assumption.
+
+This file is the structured reasoning behind No. 0, the baseline. It sets the starting values; every later note is compared against these readings.
+
+- The published note: [No. 0: The Baseline](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-00.html)
+- What the watch is, and the prediction it checks: [The Compute Watch](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch.html)
+- The data for this note: `observations.csv`, `ladder.csv`, `events.csv`, `lifespans.csv` and `loans.csv` in this dataset, rows marked note `0`
+- The dataset: [Threadbaire/compute-watch](https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch)
+- Kept by Lida Liberopoulou at [Threadbaire](https://threadbaire.com), independent research on AI economics and infrastructure. Research, not investment advice.
+
+## Readings
+
+- Premium (how much more the newest tracked chip, the B200, rents for than the older H100): 2.12× (Silicon Data), 2.99× (Ornn).
+- The same H100 rents for 2.60× more at the largest cloud companies than at specialist providers.
+- Memory index (GDDR6): 100 by definition.
+- Owners' server lifespans: 5 to 6 years for most large owners (see `lifespans.csv`).
+- Loan terms: one disclosed chip-backed loan (Nscale, $1.4 billion, secured on GPUs), at 5 points over the benchmark rate (see `loans.csv`).
+
+## What changed since the last note
+
+Not applicable: first note.
+
+## What it might mean
+
+The readings are consistent with a shortage: rents are high and some list prices were still rising (Nebius, from 1 October). Lenders asking for more protection does not contradict this. They are pricing what happens after the shortage, which is what this watch tracks.
+
+In the week before the baseline, the Silicon Data premium narrowed slightly because the H100 rose about 5% while the B200 was flat. That is consistent with tight supply for older chips, but one week of an index cannot show why.
+
+## Where the sources disagree
+
+Silicon Data and Ornn disagree on the level of the premium (2.1× against 3.0×) and on how much it moves. One likely reason is method: Ornn builds its index only from completed deals, while Silicon Data adjusts and averages across providers. Over the month before the baseline, Ornn had the H100 down about 18% and the B200 up about 18%. Both indexes are tracked; Silicon Data is the headline because it is steadier, and it is the index CME plans to use.
+
+## Test status
+
+The prediction: once the chip shortage eases, the B200 loses its rent premium over the H100 well before the five or six years the owners’ accounts assume. Right if the premium is below 1.6× on Silicon Data for two notes in a row; wrong if it stays above 1.9× for two notes in a row.
+
+Status: inactive. The shortage-easing trigger(memory index at or below 85 for two notes in a row) has not been met. Until it is, movements in the B200 price prove nothing either way.
+
+## Known confounds, recorded at baseline
+
+- New workloads on older chips: older-chip rent can rise because of new demand, not only because the shortage eases. A narrowing premium could then look like a pass for the wrong reason.
+- Power, not memory: if scarcity sits with powered data-centre space, the B200 premium partly prices access to power, and could compress because power loosens rather than memory.
+
+Neither changes the test.
+
+## What to watch in No. 1
+
+- Whether Nebius's 1 October price rises appear in the October indexes.
+- When Vera Rubin, the generation after Blackwell, enters the indexes (a content change, not a market move).
+- Whether the two indexes move closer together or further apart.
+- The outcome of the CFTC comment period (closes 20 October), and whether CME or ICE launches.
+
+## Counter-argument and reader question
+
+None yet. From No. 1, each note records the strongest counter-argument received, with an answer, and one reader question.
+
+## Contribute
+
+Send what you pay for compute, a correction, a counter-argument or a question: [threadbaire.com/contact.html#compute-watch](https://threadbaire.com/contact.html#compute-watch). You don't need to give your name. Your own numbers are never published or put into AI tools, and pooled ranges appear only once at least five people have reported on a chip. Arguments and questions may be discussed with AI tools while drafting an answer, without your name or identifying details, unless you ask for them to stay out. [How contributions work](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch.html#how-to-contribute).

observations.csv

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+note,note_date,canonical_url,silicondata_recorded_on,ornn_recorded_on,premium_b200_h100_silicondata,premium_b200_h100_ornn,h100_hyperscaler_vs_specialist,gddr6_rebased,shortage_easing,test_status,index_content_changes,screenshots_kept
+0,2026-10-06,https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-00.html,2026-10-02,2026-09-30,2.12,2.99,2.60,100,no,"inactive: shortage not easing","baseline; no changes recorded",yes