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Tags:
AI industry analysis
software collapse
open infrastructure
digital sovereignty
agent web
platform capture
License:
Upload articles.json
Browse files- articles.json +99 -0
articles.json
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[
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{
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"id": "thesis",
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"title": "The Software Collapse Has Already Happened",
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"author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
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"date": "2026-01-30",
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"updated": "2026-02-27",
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"word_count": 10000,
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"license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
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"filename": "thesis.md",
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"canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/thesis.html",
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"canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/thesis.md",
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"arc_position": "Root document. Everything after extends this.",
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"core_claim": "The software industry's value-producing mechanisms have already collapsed. Implementation is no longer scarce. Incumbents deploy defensive measures that delay recognition but cannot reverse the structural shift. Value migrates to the context/integration layer.",
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"tags": ["software collapse", "value capture", "open infrastructure", "context graphs", "platform capture", "AI industry"],
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"evidence_sources": ["OpenClaw", "DeepSeek", "MCP", "mem0", "Klarna", "Salesforce", "Unity", "Reddit", "ChatGPT", "AAIF", "Linux Foundation"],
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"related_articles": ["the-humans-wont-be-called-back", "who-holds-the-keys-part-1", "who-holds-the-keys-part-2", "two-bridges-to-the-same-place", "tools-multiply-seats-collapse"]
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},
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{
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"id": "the-humans-wont-be-called-back",
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"title": "The Humans Won't Be Called Back",
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"author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
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"date": "2026-03-04",
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"word_count": 3500,
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"license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
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"filename": "the-humans-wont-be-called-back.md",
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"canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/the-humans-wont-be-called-back.html",
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| 28 |
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"canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/the-humans-wont-be-called-back.md",
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"arc_position": "The human cost layer. What the collapse means for the people inside the organisations.",
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"core_claim": "The prediction that companies will fire humans, discover AI produces bad work, and call the humans back is wrong — not because AI won't produce bad work, but because the institutional knowledge needed to diagnose the failures leaves with the people who are cut.",
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"tags": ["institutional knowledge", "layoffs", "AI replacement", "skill formation", "human cost"],
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"evidence_sources": ["Verizon DBIR", "METR developer productivity study", "Shen & Tamkin skill formation research", "NBER firm data", "Block", "Klarna", "Salesforce"],
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"related_articles": ["thesis", "tools-multiply-seats-collapse"]
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},
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{
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"id": "who-holds-the-keys-part-1",
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"title": "Who Holds the Keys to the Agent Web — Part 1: Before the Doors Close",
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| 38 |
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"author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
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"date": "2026-03-18",
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"word_count": 4500,
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"license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
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"filename": "who-holds-the-keys-part-1.md",
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"canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/who-holds-the-keys-to-the-agent-web-part-1.html",
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"canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/who-holds-the-keys-to-the-agent-web-part-1.md",
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"arc_position": "First affirmative case — what should be built instead. Part 1 of 2: where the open web closes.",
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"core_claim": "Authentication — not discovery, not execution — is the primary capture point in the emerging AI agent layer. Identity vendors are positioning to become the default delegation layer for agent permissions.",
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"tags": ["agent authentication", "identity vendors", "credential capture", "local-first", "delegation broker", "MCP"],
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"evidence_sources": ["Stytch", "Auth0/Okta", "WorkOS", "Bitwarden MCP server", "Docker MCP Toolkit", "OAuth", "CLAUDE.md", "AGENTS.md", "llms.txt"],
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"related_articles": ["thesis", "who-holds-the-keys-part-2"]
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},
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{
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"id": "who-holds-the-keys-part-2",
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"title": "Who Holds the Keys to the Agent Web — Part 2: Who Gets the Receipt",
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"author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
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"date": "2026-03-25",
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"word_count": 6000,
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| 57 |
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"license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
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"filename": "who-holds-the-keys-part-2.md",
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"canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/who-holds-the-keys-to-the-agent-web-part-2.html",
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"canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/who-holds-the-keys-to-the-agent-web-part-2.md",
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"arc_position": "Second affirmative case. Part 2 of 2: where the open web gets mapped.",
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"core_claim": "The agent commerce infrastructure is being built now. The commercial graph — transaction history, legitimacy layer, reasoning traces — is the capture mechanism. Whoever holds the canonical record of what was agreed holds the most valuable layer.",
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"tags": ["agent commerce", "commercial graph", "payment rails", "trust registries", "autonomous wallets", "discovery protocols"],
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"evidence_sources": ["Google A2A/UCP", "Stripe MPP", "x402 Foundation", "Olas/Gnosis autonomous agents", "Stanford NegotiationArena", "Microsoft Magentic Marketplace", "Princeton agent manipulation research", "IETF Agent Identity and Discovery draft"],
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"related_articles": ["thesis", "who-holds-the-keys-part-1"]
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},
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{
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"id": "two-bridges-to-the-same-place",
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"title": "Two Bridges to the Same Place",
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"author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
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"date": "2026-04-14",
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"word_count": 3500,
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"license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
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"filename": "two-bridges-to-the-same-place.md",
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"canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/two-bridges-to-the-same-place.html",
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"canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/two-bridges-to-the-same-place.md",
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"arc_position": "Bridge post. Connects the January thesis to April 2026 evidence. Proves the model-as-commodity prediction with dated, sourced receipts.",
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"core_claim": "The competition between frontier AI labs is itself the proof that the model layer is commoditising — the same structural pattern as the Netscape/Microsoft browser war, where the winner didn't get to keep the winnings.",
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"tags": ["model commoditisation", "frontier labs", "convergence", "open-weight", "benchmark gap", "browser war analogy"],
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"evidence_sources": ["Chen/Zaharia/Zou (Harvard Data Science Review, 2024)", "Kirgis/Tufekci et al. (Princeton, arXiv 2026)", "Gao/Liang/Guestrin (ICLR 2025)", "Anthropic September 2025 postmortem", "Stanford HAI AI Index 2025", "Nagle/Yue (SSRN, 2025)", "Perplexity enterprise data", "AAIF founding announcement"],
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"related_articles": ["thesis", "tools-multiply-seats-collapse"]
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},
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{
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"id": "tools-multiply-seats-collapse",
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"title": "Tools Multiply. Seats Collapse.",
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"author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
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| 87 |
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"date": "2026-04-21",
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| 88 |
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"word_count": 2800,
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| 89 |
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"license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
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"filename": "tools-multiply-seats-collapse.md",
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| 91 |
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"canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/tools-multiply-seats-collapse.html",
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"canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/tools-multiply-seats-collapse.md",
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"arc_position": "Third in descending-through-the-stack sequence. Thesis (all layers) → Two Bridges (model layer) → Tools Multiply (software category layer). First article with a practical sorting test.",
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"core_claim": "Per-seat software pricing is a twenty-five-year artifact of the human bottleneck. AI agents sort the software market into two categories: tool-makers whose usage multiplies and coordination surfaces whose seat economics hollow out.",
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"tags": ["per-seat pricing", "tool-makers", "coordination surfaces", "SaaS collapse", "agent adoption", "vendor sorting"],
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| 96 |
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"evidence_sources": ["Jensen Huang / Dwarkesh Patel interview", "HubSpot Prospecting Agent", "Adobe Firefly Enterprise", "Salesforce Agentforce", "Reuters SaaS wipeout data", "Atlassian earnings"],
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"related_articles": ["thesis", "two-bridges-to-the-same-place", "the-humans-wont-be-called-back"]
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}
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]
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