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compute-watch-00.md

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+---
+title: "The Compute Watch - No. 0: The Baseline"
+
+author: "Lida Liberopoulou"
+
+date: "2026-10-06"
+
+license: "CC BY-SA 4.0"
+
+canonical: "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-00.html"
+
+description: "The starting numbers for a monthly record of what AI chips (GPUs) rent for, what lenders charge, and how long owners say the chips last."
+
+series: compute-watch
+
+series_part: 2
+---
+
+
+
+***New here? [Read this first](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch.html): what this watch is, why it exists, and the prediction it checks.***
+
+AI companies rarely own every chip they use. Many rent them by the hour from cloud companies and from specialist firms that do little else. A growing share of the money that bought these chips was borrowed, and the rent is what pays the loans back.
+
+But chips are built to be replaced. A better one arrives every year or two, and the old one earns less. The owners' books, and many of the loans, assume the chips keep earning for years.
+
+This watch tracks, once a month, whether they do. The core question is simple: does the newest chip keep earning much more than older ones once something better arrives? It's a good moment to start counting. Nvidia's next generation is shipping now, and the exchanges are getting ready to let people bet on chip rent.
+
+This first note sets the baselines. Every later note compares against them.
+
+## The ladder
+
+What it costs to rent one AI chip for an hour, from the oldest generation to the newest. Rents rise and fall with the shortage. The ratio between generations shows how fast a chip loses ground once something better arrives, and that's what the owners' lifespans and the lenders' assumptions depend on.
+
+| Chip                              | Rent per hour |
+| --------------------------------- | ------------- |
+| A100 (2020)                       | $1.58         |
+| H100                              | $2.77         |
+| H200                              | $3.37         |
+| B200                              | $5.86         |
+| B300                              | $6.78         |
+| *H100 at the big cloud companies* | *$7.20*       |
+
+*Silicon Data indexes, specialist providers unless marked, as shown on 2 October 2026.* 
+
+The same H100 costs more than twice as much at Amazon, Microsoft or Google as at the specialist firms that do little but rent out AI chips. Most of the numbers below use the specialists' prices, because that's where the hourly market is.
+
+
+
+## The numbers
+
+| What                                         | Baseline (2 Oct 2026)                                        | What it tells you                                            |
+| -------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ |
+| **The premium:** B200 rent ÷ H100 rent       | About 2.1× ($5.86 vs $2.77, Silicon Data)                    | How much more the newest chip the new bets will track earns than an older one. The core number. If it shrinks, the newest chips are losing their edge |
+| **Loan terms:** chip-backed borrowing        | Nscale's $1.4bn GPU loan at 5 points over the benchmark rate (S-1, 18 Sept) | Whether lenders are getting more cautious. Changes only when a new deal is disclosed |
+| **Server lifespans** in the owners' accounts | Alphabet 6 years, Oracle 6, CoreWeave 6, Meta 5.5, Amazon 5–6 (part of its fleet shortened from 6 to 5 in 2025), Microsoft 2–6 | How long the owners expect their chips to stay in use. Changes only at annual reports |
+| **The thermometer:** memory (GDDR6 price)    | $19.31 on Silicon Data's GDDR6 index                         | Whether high rents are just a shortage. If memory gets cheaper but rents stay high, something other than scarcity is holding them up |
+
+**The two indexes disagree.** Ornn, whose prices Intercontinental Exchange is using, puts the B200 at $8.09 and the H100 at $2.71 (30 September): a premium of about 3.0×, against Silicon Data's 2.1×. One likely reason is method: Ornn builds its index only from completed deals, while Silicon Data adjusts and averages across providers. But it means the answer to "what does the newest chip earn?" depends on who you ask. Ornn also moves far more: over the past month it had the H100 down about 18% and the B200 up about 18%. I'll track both. 
+
+**Read together,** today's numbers are consistent with a shortage. Rents are high and list prices are still going up. Lenders are asking for more protection, which doesn't contradict that. They are pricing what happens after the shortage, and so is this watch.
+
+## What happened in the weeks before this note
+
+Things that might later show up in the numbers. None of them is claimed as a cause.
+
+**Prices**
+
+- **Rents were still going up.** Nebius raised its hourly prices for selected Nvidia chips by 17–21% from 1 October, its second rise in three months. When the rise was reported, on 17 September, CoreWeave said it was still signing new contracts at higher prices, including short ones of three to six months.
+
+**Lending**
+
+- **Nvidia started looking for insurance.** The *Financial Times* (29 September) reported that Nvidia is working with insurers and the broker Howden Re to spread the risk on loans backed by its chips.
+- **Nvidia backed its customer's lease.** If OpenAI stops paying for its data-centre space at a new campus in Ohio, which will hold Nvidia's chips, Nvidia covers what the landlord can't recover, up to $105 billion. The site is due to open from 2028, and OpenAI has agreed to pay Nvidia back.
+- **Lenders pushed back.** Reuters (1 October) reported that banks and investors value Nvidia's chips lower than Nvidia does, and want stronger guarantees before lending against them.
+- **A chipmaker became a lender.** Reuters reported, from Anthropic's IPO prospectus, that Broadcom has agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion, through a note that can turn into shares, towards a five-year, $125.2 billion lease of chip capacity.
+
+**Demand**
+
+- **A lot of future compute is already spoken for.** Anthropic's prospectus lists at least $518 billion of infrastructure commitments over about a decade, roughly 80% payable whether used or not.
+- **A new frontier model from the custom-chip camp.** Google announced Gemini 4 Argon on 30 September, with answers up to 1 million tokens long, up from 64,000, and an introductory price set to double later. Google says its Gemini models have run on its own chips for years. It's going to a small group of testers first.
+- **One lab paused.** OpenAI paused training and tool-using work on its most capable models, its second pause in three months. Its public services weren't affected.
+
+**Supply**
+
+- **The next rung arrived.** Nvidia delivered its first Vera Rubin chips to AWS in late August. AMD expects its rival rack systems to reach customers in volume before the end of the year.
+
+**The market itself**
+
+- **Betting on chip rent got closer, but not yet.** From 5 October, Intercontinental Exchange shows test prices for chip-rent futures. CME Group had aimed for 5 October but hasn't launched; the CFTC is asking the industry for comments until 20 October.
+
+## What I'm watching next month
+
+**Whether the premium holds.** My prediction is that once the shortage eases and Rubin is widely available, the B200 slides toward the H100's price. On Silicon Data, in the week before this note, the premium narrowed slightly, but not because the B200 got cheaper: the B200 was flat while the H100 rose almost 5%. That's consistent with tight supply for older chips, but one week of an index can't tell you why.
+
+**How I'll judge it.** I'll call the shortage easing when the memory price in the table falls at least 15% below this baseline and stays there for two notes in a row. Once it has, I'll count the prediction as right if the premium is below 1.6× on Silicon Data for two notes in a row, and wrong if it stays above 1.9× for two notes in a row. In between, it's too early to say. Until the shortage eases, a falling B200 price doesn't prove me right, and a steady one doesn't prove me wrong. If it hasn't eased by No. 6, the prediction stays open, and I'll say so.
+
+**Whether the price rises reach the indexes.** Nebius raised its hourly prices from 1 October. If the October index moves up with them, the shortage is still biting.
+
+**When Rubin enters the indexes.** That's a change in what the indexes contain, not a market move, and I'll note it as such.
+
+**The two indexes.** Whether Ornn and Silicon Data move closer together or further apart.
+
+## Contribute
+
+Send me what you pay for compute, a correction, or a question: [send a note](https://threadbaire.com/contact.html#compute-watch). Your own numbers are never published, nothing goes into AI tools, and you don't need to give your name. [How contributions work](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch.html#how-to-contribute).
+
+You can [get each note by email](https://lidaliberopoulou.substack.com) on the day it comes out. 
+
+---
+
+*How this is made.* Headline figures come from Silicon Data's public index page, recorded on one fixed day each month (the first working day, from No. 1), using specialist-provider prices unless marked. Ornn's index is the cross-check. Silicon Data is the headline because it's steadier: Ornn, built only from completed deals, can move several percent in a day. Silicon Data is also the index CME plans to use. A screenshot of both pages is kept for every note. GDDR6 is graphics memory, not the HBM inside data-centre chips; it's used here as a public reading of the wider memory shortage. Index prices are averages across providers; individual list prices, like Nebius's, are often higher. If an index changes its method or its contents, such as a new chip or provider entering the mix, I note it, so that isn't mistaken for a market move. From No. 1, every table gets a "change since last month" column, and "no new data" where nothing was disclosed. From No. 1, each note also carries the strongest counter-argument or missing piece received, with my answer, and one reader question.
+
+*Research, not investment advice.*
+
+**Sources:** 
+
+- [Silicon Data GPU Rental Price Indices](https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index) (2 Oct 2026), quoted under Silicon Data's [Terms of Service](https://portal.silicondata.com/terms-of-service);
+- [Ornn Compute Price Index](https://data.ornn.com/markets) (30 Sept and 5 Oct 2026); 
+- [ICE Futures U.S. notice, 29 Sept 2026](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf);
+- [CME Group announcement, 11 Aug 2026](https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/11/cme_group_and_silicondatatolaunchcomputefuturesonoctober5tounloc.html); 
+- [CFTC Request for Comment on Compute Derivatives](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9286-26);
+- [Federal Register notice on compute derivatives](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-21/pdf/2026-17163.pdf); 
+- [Nscale Form S-1, 18 Sept 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm); 
+- [Microsoft 2026 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm); 
+- [Alphabet 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/goog-20251231.htm); 
+- [Amazon 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm); 
+- [Meta 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026003942/meta-20251231.htm); 
+- [Oracle 2026 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm); 
+- [CoreWeave 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000104/crwv-20251231.htm); 
+- [CoreWeave, 17 Sept 2026 - CoreWeave continues to contract new compute capacity at higher prices](https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Continues-to-Contract-New-Compute-Capacity-at-Higher-Prices/default.aspx);
+- [Financial Times, 29 Sept 2026 - Nvidia turns to insurers to spread the risk of AI build-out](https://www.ft.com/content/d6a9f5df-08d0-4f80-ad2d-5d8a17e2cc82);
+- [Reuters, 1 Oct 2026 - Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion](https://www.reuters.com/business/broadcom-lend-anthropic-up-42-billion-lease-its-chips-filing-says-2026-10-01/); 
+- [Nvidia - Vera Rubin ramps into full production](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/vera-rubin-full-production-agentic-ai-factory); 
+- [Nvidia, 27 Aug 2026 - Vera CPU and Rubin deliveries](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/vera-cpu-delivery/); 
+- [Nvidia Form 8-K, 17 Aug 2026 - SB Energy partnership and residual value guaranties](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001045810/988230c7-dd29-466b-92dc-5cf34f65b60f.pdf);
+- [AMD - Helios update](https://newsroom.amd.com/news/aai-2026-helios-update/); 
+- [AMD-Meta MI450 deployment announcement](https://ir.amd.com/financial-information/sec-filings/content/0000002488-26-000045/pressreleasedatedfebruary2.htm);
+- [Reuters, 17 Sept 2026 - Nebius hikes AI cloud prices again as demand for computing power soars](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/);
+- [Reuters, 1 Oct 2026 - Nvidia's bet that its chips can finance the AI boom gets a Wall Street reality check](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-ai-boom-gets-wall-street-reality-check-2026-10-01/);
+- [Reuters, 29 Sept 2026 - Anthropic IPO prospectus lays bare deep dependence on Big Tech partners](https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/); 
+- [Google, 30 Sept 2026 - Gemini 4 Argon](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/);
+- [Fortune, 26 Sept 2026 - OpenAI pauses training a second time](https://fortune.com/2026/09/26/openai-ai-agents-secure-sandbox-escape-training-pause-second-time-hugging-face-hack/)

compute-watch.md

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+---
+title: "The Compute Watch: Tracking the Rent on AI Chips"
+
+author: "Lida Liberopoulou"
+
+date: "2026-10-06"
+
+license: "CC BY-SA 4.0"
+
+canonical: "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch.html"
+
+description: "AI chips (GPUs) are bought with borrowed money and paid back with rent. A monthly record of what they rent for, and why that is important."
+
+series: compute-watch
+
+series_part: 1
+---
+
+Companies that build AI rarely own every chip they use. Many rent them, from the big cloud companies, like Amazon, Microsoft and Google, or from smaller firms that do almost nothing but rent out AI chips. They charge by the hour, per chip, and they even offer discounts if you commit for months or years.
+
+Now Wall Street wants to let people bet on that rent, on whether it will go up or down. These bets are called futures, and they already exist for oil, wheat and orange juice. Two of the biggest exchanges in the world, CME Group in Chicago and Intercontinental Exchange (**ICE**), which owns the New York Stock Exchange, want to sell these bets. Neither is allowed to yet.
+
+Intercontinental Exchange started a test run on 5 October. It shows banks and trading firms what the prices would be. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US agency that oversees futures markets, hasn't said yes. Instead it has asked the industry for comments, and says it understands the market for computing power to be fragmented, with prices set mostly in private deals.
+
+But despite not having the OK, they're going ahead, and the reason is a race. Nobody can place these bets yet. So the two exchanges are racing for something else: who will ultimately set the standard price for chip rent. CME's bets would follow one company's prices, ICE's first ones another's, and the two don't even agree on what the newest chip rents for. ICE has a third index lined up too, which prices compute per unit of energy. Whoever wins sets the price the whole industry will quote, lend against and bet on.
+
+And that price isn't only for betting. It's what pays for the chips. It's a good reason to look at what the rent depends on, and who is relying on it.
+
+## What rests on the rent
+
+The computers that run AI, and the buildings that house them, are being bought with borrowed money. A lot of it. Goldman Sachs Research counts close to $500 billion borrowed for AI this year, by early August alone. Morgan Stanley reckoned last year that through 2028, about half of all the money spent on data centres, most of it for AI, would have to come from somewhere other than the tech giants' own pockets. Much of it will be lent by funds that invest money for pensions and insurers, who expect steady returns over many years.
+
+The plan behind all this is simple: the chips earn rent, and the rent pays back the loans. But a chip isn't oil. A barrel of oil from 2020 is as good as one pumped today. A chip is built to be replaced. A better one arrives every year or two, and the old one earns less. Today, a chip from 2020 rents for about a quarter of what the newest one does. Any PC gamer, or anyone who has ever had to run hardware, knows this.
+
+Yet the owners' books treat chips as something closer to oil. Most of the big owners expect a server to stay in use for five or six years. CoreWeave, whose whole business is renting out these chips, spreads their cost over six years, and its own annual report lists, as a risk, being unable to put the chips back to work after their first contracts end. Some loans are paid off within the contracts behind them, and leave the risk with the customer. Others run longer, or rely on renting by the hour. Those assume that when today's contracts end, these chips will still rent for enough to pay back what's owed. Someone will still want them but the question is how much they'll pay. And the answer decides whether the funds that lent the money, and the pensions and insurers behind them, get the steady returns they expect.
+
+So it all comes down to one number: what an older chip will rent for once something better is available. And that rent isn't set the way most people imagine.
+
+## What moves the rent
+
+Much of the newest AI capacity can't be rented by the hour. The biggest labs own their chips, or lock them up in contracts that run for years. Nobody publishes how much of the total that is, but the examples all point one way. Even the CFTC says it believes most of the money sits in private deals, and has asked the industry what share happens at public prices. At CoreWeave, the biggest of the firms that rent out AI chips, almost all revenue, 98% last quarter, comes from contracts customers have committed to, mostly running over the next four years. Those chips are rented too, but to one customer at a time, for years, at prices nobody else sees. A smaller European provider, Scaleway, keeps about 70% of its chips on similar long contracts and offers the rest short-term.
+
+The rent the indexes measure is the price of what's left over. How big a slice that is, nobody can say. And that leftover market is changing.
+
+**The biggest buyers are moving elsewhere.** Google trains its own models on its own chips, called TPUs. Amazon, Microsoft and Meta are all building their own too. And the big labs are signing with AMD as well as Nvidia. But these same giants also rent huge numbers of chips from the specialist firms, on those multi-year contracts. Nobody breaks a contract like that to switch. They just may not renew it. And when a large one ends, a lot of locked-up capacity comes back onto the rental market at once.
+
+**More chips are coming, from both ends.** At the top, each new Nvidia generation pushes the last one down a rung, and the rungs are getting closer. Nvidia used to bring out a new design every two years or so; now it promises one every year, and the next one is shipping now. AMD expects its rival rack systems to reach customers in volume before the end of the year. At the bottom, chips built only for running models, from Qualcomm and Intel, are due over the next year or two. Both companies say they will be cheaper to run than Nvidia's.
+
+**Only some old chips come back.** When a newer chip replaces an Nvidia or AMD one, the old one can be resold or rented out cheaply, and it adds to the supply. It goes for a fraction of its original price, but it can still be traded. A replaced custom chip can't go anywhere. It's written off quietly inside the company that owns it.
+
+**So the price comes from fewer and fewer deals.** If more of the biggest buyers move to their own chips and long contracts, fewer chips are left to rent by the hour. Think of house prices in a small village where only three houses sell a year. One owner who has to sell in a hurry drags down the price for the whole village. Because so few deals set the price, one big deal can move it for everyone: a large contract ending and its chips flooding the hourly market, or a big buyer suddenly needing capacity. And the CFTC is asking the same question: how to stop a thin market from producing runaway prices, and whether the companies that supply chips could move the very prices the bets would settle on.
+
+Yet this is the price many people lean on. Owners use it to judge what their chips are worth, even the ones on long contracts. Firms that rent out chips by the hour live on it, and so do their lenders. And it's the price the new bets will pay out on. A price set by a few deals is being used to value, lend and bet on far more than those deals.
+
+Everything above pushes rents down. But there are two things pushing them up, and for now they are winning.
+
+**The first is demand.** People use AI more every month, and every time you ask AI to do something it needs a chip running somewhere to do it. 
+
+**The second is room.** New data centres take years to build and need huge amounts of power, so there isn't space for all the new chips people need right now.
+
+Together these two things make a shortage. And in a shortage, almost any chip finds a renter, even an old one.
+
+So the real question is how long the shortage lasts. One way to watch it is memory. There isn't enough memory to go round either, for the same reasons, and some of its prices are public. Its price works like a thermometer. If memory gets cheaper but chip rents stay high, then the shortage wasn't what held them up. If memory and rents fall together, it was. It's not a perfect thermometer, since there can still be too little power even when there's enough memory, but it's a useful public one.
+
+Here is what I think happens. When the shortage eases, renters can choose again, and the chip that has just been overtaken loses out fastest. Today the B200, the newest chip the new bets will track, rents for about twice as much as the older H100. The next Nvidia generation is shipping now. Once it's everywhere, I expect the B200 to slide toward the H100's price, well before the five or six years the owners' books assume.
+
+If the shortage eases and the B200 keeps its premium over the H100, I'm wrong, and the watch will show it.
+
+## Why I'm keeping this watch
+
+I track these numbers anyway, as part of my research on how the AI buildout is financed. They're too important to sit in my notes, so I publish them here, once a month, for anyone who needs them. It's easy to throw out predictions like the one above. Every platform and opinion site is full of them. But a lot is at stake here, so it's worth checking whether this one holds.
+
+The numbers that would settle it already exist, scattered across index pages, company filings and loan documents. But I haven't found anyone who writes them down side by side, every month, in plain words, where anyone can read them. The people who'd carry the loss, if it comes, are usually the last to see it, and it takes even longer for them to make all the connections. So I've started writing the numbers down, and making the connections, here. A record kept in public, so you can see it coming rather than read about it afterwards.
+
+## What it is
+
+One short note a month, posted on the first working day. It will have the same handful of numbers every time: what each generation of chip rents for, how much more the newest one earns than older ones, what lenders charge, how long the owners say the chips last, and memory prices as a check on the shortage. Two index providers, because they don't agree, and the disagreement is not something trivial.
+
+It's an experiment. I'll post six issues after this baseline, then decide whether it's worth keeping. If I skip a month, I'll say so.
+
+**Why not just look it up?** You can. The prices are public, the trackers are good, and I use them. An AI will find them too. But they show today's price, and most of what's said about these numbers, including what an AI will tell you, still rests on how things looked a year or two ago.
+
+The watch keeps the record: dated, measured the same way each month, checked against filings. But it does more than record. It puts the numbers side by side (rent, lending, lifespans and memory) so you can see whether they tell the same story. It says plainly what changed, what it might mean, and where the sources disagree. It checks the prediction above against the numbers every month, in public. Alongside, it lists the month's big launches and deals from the AI labs, the tech giants and the chipmakers that might bear on what the numbers show. Whether they explain anything is for you to judge. And over time it adds what isn't on any page: what people actually pay, and what people who know better think I've got wrong.
+
+If you write about this, you get dated numbers you can cite. If you hold anything exposed to AI, you get a steady reading, so changes stand out. If you rent compute, see the next section.
+
+The first note, [No. 0: The Baseline](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-00.html), sets the starting numbers. You can also get each note by email through [Substack](https://lidaliberopoulou.substack.com). 
+
+## How to contribute
+
+Some of what this watch needs isn't on any page, and some of what you know could prove me wrong. Each way of contributing gets you something back. Nothing you send is ever sold or shared.
+
+**Tell me what you pay, and I'll tell you what others pay.** The indexes show mostly hourly rent. What contracts actually cost, by length and by type of provider, isn't on any page. Send me the chip, a rough price range, how long the contract runs, and what kind of provider it is. "More, less or about the same as the indexes" is a useful answer. Your own numbers are never published or shared. Reports are treated as unverified: I check each one against the indexes, and leave out any I can't make sense of. Once at least five people have reported on a chip, I send everyone who contributed the combined ranges privately, a month before they appear in a note. They appear only as broad ranges, in a separate, clearly labelled section, never in the main table, and any group with fewer than five reports is merged or held back. Please don't send anything your contract doesn't allow you to share.
+
+**Tell me where I'm wrong, or what I'm missing.** This watch says what I think. If you think chips last longer than I do, that the premium will hold, that I've misread a number, or that something moves the rent I haven't counted, write and say why. Each month, the strongest counter-argument or missing piece I receive goes into the note, with my answer. Corrections are fixed in public, and credited if you want credit.
+
+You can also send a question. I'll answer one per issue, from filings and notices, with sources.
+
+[Send a note](https://threadbaire.com/contact.html#compute-watch). You don't need to give your name or where you work. Whatever you send comes only to me and never goes into AI tools, and nothing is published with your name or employer unless you ask.
+
+---
+
+*Research, not investment advice.*
+
+**Sources:**
+
+- [ICE Futures U.S. notice, 29 Sept 2026](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf);
+- [CME Group announcement, 11 Aug 2026](https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/11/cme_group_and_silicondatatolaunchcomputefuturesonoctober5tounloc.html);
+- [CFTC Request for Comment on Compute Derivatives](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9286-26);
+- [ICE, 1 July 2026 - ICE and NATIVX to Launch Energy-Normalized Compute Futures Contracts](https://ir.theice.com/press/news-details/2026/ICE-and-NATIVX-to-Launch-Energy-Normalized-Compute-Futures-Contracts/default.aspx);
+- [Federal Register notice on compute derivatives, 21 Aug 2026](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-21/pdf/2026-17163.pdf);
+- [Goldman Sachs, How AI debt is reshaping credit markets, Aug 2026](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/how-ai-debt-is-reshaping-the-credit-market);
+- [Morgan Stanley Research, Bridging a $1.5tr Data Center Financing Gap, July 2025](https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/msdotcom/en/assets/pdfs/Research_Bridging-Data-Center-Gap.pdf);
+- [CoreWeave 2026 Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000366/crwv-20260630.htm);
+- [CoreWeave 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000104/crwv-20251231.htm);
+- [DCD, Chipping away at the economics of neoclouds](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/analysis/chipping-away-at-the-economics-of-neoclouds/) (Scaleway);
+- [Microsoft 2026 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm);
+- [Alphabet 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/goog-20251231.htm);
+- [Amazon 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm);
+- [Meta 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026003942/meta-20251231.htm);
+- [Oracle 2026 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm);
+- [Google, Our eighth generation TPUs](https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/infrastructure-and-cloud/google-cloud/eighth-generation-tpu-agentic-era/);
+- [Microsoft, Maia 200](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/01/26/maia-200-the-ai-accelerator-built-for-inference/);
+- [Amazon, Trainium](https://aws.amazon.com/ai/machine-learning/trainium/);
+- [Meta, MTIA](https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-mtia-scale-ai-chips-for-billions/);
+- [Qualcomm, June 2026 - Data center roadmap and Dragonfly portfolio](https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2026/06/qualcomm-unveils-comprehensive-data-center-roadmap-for-the-agent);
+- [AMD Advancing AI 2026 announcement](https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1294/aai-2026-amd-delivers-full-stack-compute-for-the-agentic-ai-era);
+- [AMD Helios update](https://newsroom.amd.com/news/aai-2026-helios-update/);
+- [Nvidia, Vera Rubin ramps into full production](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/vera-rubin-full-production-agentic-ai-factory);
+- [Nvidia, 27 Aug 2026, Vera CPU and Rubin deliveries](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/vera-cpu-delivery/);
+- [Intel, Crescent Island announcement](https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/artificial-intelligence/intel-to-expand-ai-accelerator-portfolio-with-new-gpu.html);
+- [Silicon Data GPU Rental Price Indices](https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index) (2 Oct 2026), quoted under Silicon Data's [Terms of Service](https://portal.silicondata.com/terms-of-service);
+- [Ornn Compute Price Index](https://data.ornn.com/markets) (30 Sept and 5 Oct 2026).