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Tags:
AI industry analysis
software collapse
open infrastructure
digital sovereignty
agent web
platform capture
License:
updated README Research Directions
Browse files
README.md
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- structural analysis
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- industrial economics
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- venture capital
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task_categories:
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- text-classification
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- text-generation
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```
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## Arc
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The thesis is the root document. Each blog post extends it by moving one layer deeper through the stack: the human cost of the collapse, then a triptych on the agent web — authentication capture, commerce capture, and post-transaction memory capture — followed by the model commodity layer and the software category sorting mechanism. The latest series, The Silicon Industrialists, moves below the software layer entirely. Part 1 diagnoses the industrial economics — arguing that AI's cost structure is industrial, not software, and that the collision with dissolving revenue models pushes the entire economy toward regression. Part 2 traces the infrastructure trap through railroads, electricity, and telephony, then follows the escape through three institutional openings that made the software economy possible, and asks what held the ladder in place.
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## Source
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- **Canonical site:** [threadbaire.com](https://threadbaire.com)
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- **Blog:** [threadbaire.com/blog](https://threadbaire.com/blog)
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## Author
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Lida Liberopoulou · Independent research · Available for advisory, research collaboration, and expert consultation · [Get in touch](https://threadbaire.com/contact.html)
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## License
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CC BY-SA 4.0
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- structural analysis
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- industrial economics
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- venture capital
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- long waves
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task_categories:
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- text-classification
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- text-generation
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```
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## Arc
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The thesis is the root document. Each blog post extends it by moving one layer deeper through the stack: the human cost of the collapse, then a triptych on the agent web — authentication capture, commerce capture, and post-transaction memory capture — followed by the model commodity layer and the software category sorting mechanism. The latest series, The Silicon Industrialists, moves below the software layer entirely. Part 1 diagnoses the industrial economics — arguing that AI's cost structure is industrial, not software, and that the collision with dissolving revenue models pushes the entire economy toward regression. Part 2 traces the infrastructure trap through railroads, electricity, and telephony, then follows the escape through three institutional openings that made the software economy possible, and asks what held the ladder in place.
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## Research Directions
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The Silicon Industrialists series identified a dual-force mechanism — the double bind between industrial-scale infrastructure costs and value dissolution — that produces the same economic sequence across every shared infrastructure technology examined (railroads, electricity, telephony, computing). The series also identified the institutional conditions (consent decrees, mandated unbundling, conditioned privatisation) that broke this sequence for the computing industry specifically.
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Current research is investigating whether this mechanism provides the missing causal explanation for Kondratieff long waves (~50-60 year economic cycles associated with successive infrastructure technologies). The existing long-wave literature (Schumpeter, Perez, Freeman & Louçã) documents the empirical pattern and maps the installation-deployment sequence but has not converged on a structural mechanism that explains why every infrastructure technology follows the same financial shape. The double bind — industrial costs that cannot be avoided combined with value dissolution that erodes the revenue base funding the buildout — may be that mechanism, with the institutional conditions explaining the transition from crisis to deployment.
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This line of investigation is at an early stage. A full literature review and formal working paper will follow the completion of the Silicon Industrialists series.
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## Source
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- **Canonical site:** [threadbaire.com](https://threadbaire.com)
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- **Blog:** [threadbaire.com/blog](https://threadbaire.com/blog)
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## Author
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Lida Liberopoulou · Independent research · Available for advisory, research collaboration, and expert consultation · [Get in touch](https://threadbaire.com/contact.html)
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## License
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CC BY-SA 4.0
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