Updated articles.json

articles.json

@@ -221,7 +221,7 @@
   "core_claim": "Much of the AI buildout is financed with debt that chip rent is meant to repay, while owners' accounts assume chips keep earning for five or six years and a better chip arrives every year or two. The rent that values, secures and will settle bets on these chips is set by a thin leftover market of hourly deals. Once the current shortage eases, the newest chip's rent premium over older chips is expected to collapse well before the assumed lifespans run out.",
   "tags": ["compute futures", "GPU rental prices", "chip-backed lending", "depreciation", "server lifespans", "AI infrastructure financing", "thin markets", "pre-registered prediction", "reader contributions"],
   "evidence_sources": ["ICE Futures U.S. notice Sept 2026", "CME Group compute futures announcement Aug 2026", "CFTC request for comment on compute derivatives", "Federal Register notice Aug 2026", "ICE/NATIVX energy-normalised compute futures", "Goldman Sachs AI debt research Aug 2026", "Morgan Stanley data-centre financing report July 2025", "CoreWeave 2025 10-K and 2026 10-Q", "Scaleway (DCD)", "Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle annual reports", "Google TPU", "Microsoft Maia 200", "Amazon Trainium", "Meta MTIA", "Qualcomm data-centre roadmap", "AMD Helios", "Nvidia Vera Rubin", "Intel Crescent Island", "Silicon Data GPU rental indices", "Ornn Compute Price Index"],
-  "related_articles": ["compute-watch-00", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "the-silicon-industrialists-part-1","follow-the-money-both-ways"],
+  "related_articles": ["compute-watch-00", "compute-watch-01", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "the-silicon-industrialists-part-1","follow-the-money-both-ways"],  
   "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
 },
 {
@@ -238,7 +238,7 @@
   "core_claim": "On 2 October 2026 the newest chip (B200) rented for about 2.1 times the older H100 on Silicon Data and about 3.0 times on Ornn: the two indexes behind the planned futures disagree. The readings are consistent with a shortage. The prediction is judged only once a memory-price index shows the shortage easing; it is right if the premium falls below 1.6x for two notes in a row and wrong if it stays above 1.9x for two notes in a row.",
   "tags": ["compute futures", "GPU rental prices", "baseline", "B200", "H100", "index disagreement", "chip-backed lending", "server lifespans", "GDDR6", "pre-registered prediction"],
   "evidence_sources": ["Silicon Data GPU rental indices", "Ornn Compute Price Index", "ICE Futures U.S. notice Sept 2026", "CME Group announcement Aug 2026", "CFTC request for comment", "Nscale Form S-1", "Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, CoreWeave annual reports", "Nvidia Form 8-K Aug 2026 (residual value guarantee)", "Financial Times on Nvidia and insurers", "Reuters on Broadcom-Anthropic loan", "Reuters on lenders and Nvidia chip valuations", "Reuters on Anthropic IPO prospectus", "Reuters on Nebius price rises", "CoreWeave Sept 2026 contract pricing statement", "Nvidia Vera Rubin deliveries", "AMD Helios", "Google Gemini 4 Argon", "Fortune on OpenAI training pause"],
-  "related_articles": ["compute-watch", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show"],
+  "related_articles": ["compute-watch", "compute-watch-01", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show"],
   "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
 },
 {
@@ -251,11 +251,11 @@
   "filename": "follow-the-money-both-ways.md",
   "canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/follow-the-money-both-ways.html",
   "canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/follow-the-money-both-ways.md",
-  "arc_position": "Pre-registered disclosure test on Anthropic's S-1, filed before the public filing (first posted on X, 23 October 2026). Extends the A Tale of Two Earnings method from the hyperscalers' filings to the lab at the centre of their investments. First piece written in plain language for non-finance readers. Scored in Compute Watch No. 1.",
+  "arc_position": "Pre-registered disclosure test on Anthropic's S-1, filed before the public filing (first posted on X, 23 October 2026). Extends the A Tale of Two Earnings method from the hyperscalers' filings to the lab at the centre of their investments. First piece written in plain language for non-finance readers. Scored in Compute Watch No. 1: all four predictions held.",
   "core_claim": "The companies Anthropic owes the most to (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Broadcom on its chip leases) are also its investors or possible future owners, and the figures reported about its biggest deals measure different things, so they cannot be added up. Four predictions test whether the S-1 lets a reader follow the money: whether the use of proceeds is tied to signed computing commitments, whether Amazon or Alphabet appear in the related-party section, whether the Broadcom lease bills can be rebuilt to their total, and whether cash invested and payments committed can both be stated for each partner.",
   "tags": ["Anthropic", "IPO", "S-1", "disclosure", "pre-registered prediction", "AI infrastructure financing", "compute commitments", "supplier-investors", "Broadcom", "Amazon", "Alphabet", "Microsoft"],
   "evidence_sources": ["Broadcom Form 10-Q Sept 2026", "Broadcom/Apollo/Blackstone financing announcement June 2026", "Amazon Q2 2026 10-Q and earnings release", "Anthropic-Amazon compute agreement April 2026", "Microsoft/Nvidia/Anthropic partnership Nov 2025", "Reuters on Google investment April 2026", "Reuters on Anthropic's $518 billion commitments Sept 2026", "Reuters on Broadcom $42 billion facility Oct 2026", "Reuters on Anthropic Q3 revenue Oct 2026", "Reuters/WSJ on Anthropic first-half loss Oct 2026", "Financial Times on Project North Star Oct 2026", "Wall Street Journal on Anthropic revenue and IPO Oct 2026"],
-  "related_articles": ["a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "compute-watch", "income-or-promises"],
+  "related_articles": ["a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "compute-watch", "compute-watch-01","income-or-promises"],
   "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
 },
 {
@@ -291,5 +291,22 @@
   "evidence_sources": ["Alphabet Q3 2026 10-Q, earnings release and call", "Amazon Q2 and Q3 2026 10-Q and Q3 earnings release and call", "Microsoft FY27 Q1 10-Q, earnings release and call", "Microsoft FY26 Q3 and Q4 earnings calls", "Meta Q3 2026 earnings release and 10-Q", "Reuters on Microsoft bond sale Oct 2026", "CNBC on Google-SpaceX compute deal June 2026", "Nvidia Form 8-K Aug 2026 (residual value guarantee)"],
   "related_articles": ["income-or-promises", "follow-the-money-both-ways", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "compute-watch"],
   "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
+},
+{
+  "id": "compute-watch-01",
+  "title": "The Compute Watch - No. 1: Rents Up, Memory Barely Moved",
+  "author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
+  "date": "2026-11-02",
+  "word_count": 3000,
+  "license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
+  "filename": "compute-watch-01.md",
+  "canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-01.html",
+  "canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-01.md",
+  "arc_position": "Second note of The Compute Watch and the first monthly reading against the No. 0 baseline. Adds the standing sections promised at launch: change since last month, a loans table typed by what the lender is betting on, the strongest public counter-argument with an answer, and the reader question. Scores the four Anthropic S-1 predictions from Follow the Money Both Ways (all four held).",
+  "core_claim": "In October, AI chip rents rose on both indexes and the newest chips rose fastest, so the B200's premium over the H100 widened (2.12x to 2.22x on Silicon Data, 2.99x to 3.13x on Ornn), while the GDDR6 memory price rose only 1.6%. That is consistent with a tightening shortage; the pre-registered test has not started. Supply is held back by credit, power and memory at once, making it more likely the prediction is still open at No. 6.",
+  "tags": ["compute futures", "GPU rental prices", "B200", "H100", "index disagreement", "chip-backed lending", "GDDR6", "power constraints", "pre-registered prediction", "prediction scoring", "Anthropic", "S-1"],
+  "evidence_sources": ["Silicon Data GPU rental and RAM indices", "Ornn Compute Price Index", "TrendForce DRAMeXchange GDDR6 spot", "ICE OCPI B200 and H100 futures pages", "Anthropic Form S-1 Oct 2026", "SharonAI Form 8-K Oct 2026", "Nebius Form 6-K Oct 2026", "Bloomberg on Volta loan Oct 2026", "WSJ on North Star Oct 2026", "Reuters on CoreWeave Oct 2026", "Reuters on Microsoft and Nscale Oct 2026", "NEXTDC announcement Oct 2026", "Forbes Australia on Firmus Oct 2026", "SpaceX Q3 2026 webcast transcript", "Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call", "Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call", "Nvidia/Oracle Vera Rubin announcement Oct 2026", "SK hynix Q3 2026 results", "Yahoo Finance interview with Jensen Huang Oct 2026", "Elon Musk on X Oct-Nov 2026", "CFTC comments 0060 and 0098", "Silicon Data Series A announcement"],
+  "related_articles": ["compute-watch", "compute-watch-00", "follow-the-money-both-ways", "income-or-promises-where-the-bill-went"],
+  "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
 }
 ]