Updated articles.json with income-or-promises-where-the-bill-went

articles.json

@@ -272,7 +272,24 @@
   "core_claim": "The largest AI spenders now spend more cash than their businesses bring in. They cover the gap with borrowing, new shares and bills signed for years ahead, while holding growing backlogs of promised revenue, part of it from AI labs they have invested in. Five predictions and one control test whether any improvement this quarter is new income or a cost moved somewhere harder to see: Alphabet's cash, investment gains in profit, backlog concentration in Anthropic and OpenAI, Microsoft's leases not yet started, and Microsoft's finance-lease share after its change to building life.",
   "tags": ["Microsoft", "Alphabet", "Amazon", "Meta", "earnings analysis", "pre-registered prediction", "free cash flow", "capex", "leases", "backlog", "depreciation", "server lifespans", "AI infrastructure financing", "disclosure"],
   "evidence_sources": ["Meta Q3 2026 earnings release, presentation and 10-Q", "Meta 424B5 prospectus supplements Oct 2026", "Meta Q3 2022 earnings release", "Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings release and 10-Q", "Microsoft FY2026 and FY2025 10-K", "Microsoft Q3 FY2026 10-Q", "Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call", "Amazon Q2 2026 earnings release", "Amazon FY2025 10-K", "Reuters on hyperscaler borrowing Oct 2026"],
-  "related_articles": ["follow-the-money-both-ways", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "compute-watch"],
+  "related_articles": ["income-or-promises-where-the-bill-went", "follow-the-money-both-ways", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "compute-watch"],  
+  "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
+},
+{
+  "id": "income-or-promises-where-the-bill-went",
+  "title": "Income or Promises - Where the Bill Went",
+  "author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
+  "date": "2026-10-31",
+  "word_count": 4100,
+  "license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
+  "filename": "income-or-promises-where-the-bill-went.md",
+  "canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/income-or-promises-where-the-bill-went.html",
+  "canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/income-or-promises-where-the-bill-went.md",
+  "arc_position": "Scoring post to 'Income or Promises'. Second scored pre-registration on the hyperscalers, after A Tale of Two Earnings. Four of five predictions held and one could not be tested; one pass is reported with a disclosed research miss and a method change: claims that something is not disclosed now require a search of each company's latest filings first. Meta checked after the fact. Plain-language format.",
+  "core_claim": "The hyperscalers' cash did not improve: Alphabet's and Amazon's free cash flow worsened, and Microsoft's stayed positive while it sold investments to cover payouts and launched its first US bond sale in nine years. The cost of the build is increasingly recorded outside the two figures most readers follow, spending on equipment and free cash flow: in leases not yet started, guarantees of other companies' data-centre rent, loans secured on servers, short leases kept off the balance sheet, and backlog from companies the sellers fund or part-own.",
+  "tags": ["Microsoft", "Alphabet", "Amazon", "Meta", "earnings analysis", "pre-registered prediction", "prediction scoring", "free cash flow", "capex", "leases", "backlog", "guarantees", "related parties", "Copilot disclosure", "useful life", "AI infrastructure financing", "disclosure"],
+  "evidence_sources": ["Alphabet Q3 2026 10-Q, earnings release and call", "Amazon Q2 and Q3 2026 10-Q and Q3 earnings release and call", "Microsoft FY27 Q1 10-Q, earnings release and call", "Microsoft FY26 Q3 and Q4 earnings calls", "Meta Q3 2026 earnings release and 10-Q", "Reuters on Microsoft bond sale Oct 2026", "CNBC on Google-SpaceX compute deal June 2026", "Nvidia Form 8-K Aug 2026 (residual value guarantee)"],
+  "related_articles": ["income-or-promises", "follow-the-money-both-ways", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "compute-watch"],
   "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
 }
 ]