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README.md
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license: cc-by-4.0
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task_categories:
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- tabular-regression
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tags:
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- finance
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- quantitative-finance
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- derivatives
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---
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license: cc-by-4.0
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language:
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- en
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pretty_name: Autocallable Notes Pricing (Synthetic)
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task_categories:
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- tabular-regression
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tags:
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- finance
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- quantitative-finance
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- derivatives
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- structured-products
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- autocallable
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- option-pricing
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- monte-carlo
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- heston
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- synthetic
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size_categories:
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- n<1K
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configs:
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- config_name: default
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data_files:
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- split: train
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path: data/*/dataset.csv
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---
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# Autocallable Notes Pricing (Synthetic)
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A fully **synthetic** dataset of autocallable structured-note scenarios paired with their
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**fair value (`PV`)**, computed by Monte Carlo simulation under several stochastic models for
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the underlying asset dynamics. It is designed for **derivative pricing with machine learning**:
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training surrogate pricers, benchmarking tabular regressors, and studying how product terms and
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market conditions map to price.
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> All data is generated from first-principles simulation. It contains **no real market data, no
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> proprietary quotes, and no scraped content** — every row is produced by the open-source pipeline
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> at [VegaInstitute/RG-ML-Autocall-Dataset](https://github.com/VegaInstitute/RG-ML-Autocall-Dataset).
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## TL;DR
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- **Task:** tabular regression — predict `PV` (fair value of the note) from product terms + market state.
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- **Underlying models:** Bachelier, Black–Scholes, CEV, and Heston (stochastic volatility).
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- **Pricing engine:** Monte Carlo, up to 1,000,000 paths per scenario, with a reported MC standard error (`PV_std`).
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- **Scope:** single- and multi-asset baskets (1–4 assets), worst-of / min-basket payoffs, optional memory coupons.
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## Supported tasks
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- **Tabular regression (primary):** learn a fast surrogate that maps `(product terms, spots, correlations, implied-vol surfaces)` → `PV`.
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- **Pricing acceleration / model distillation:** approximate the Monte Carlo pricer with a neural or gradient-boosted model.
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- **Sensitivity & calibration studies:** analyze how `PV` responds to coupons, barriers, correlations, and the volatility surface.
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## Underlying models
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| Model | Dynamics | Notes |
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|-------|----------|-------|
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| **Heston** | Stochastic volatility | Produces a volatility smile; parameters sampled from ranges |
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## Generation parameters
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Defaults used by the reference pipeline (see `configs/` in the source repo):
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| Parameter | Value / range |
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|-----------|---------------|
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| Trading days per year | 252 |
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| Tenors (years) | {1, 2, 3} |
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| Fixings per year | {1, 2, 4} |
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| Assets per basket | 1–4 |
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| Coupon | [0.01, 0.50] |
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| Coupon barrier | [0.80, 1.00] |
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| Autocall barrier | [1.00, 1.30] |
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| Put strike | [0.70, 1.30] |
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| Inter-asset correlation | [-0.80, 0.80] |
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| Risk-free rate | 0.0 |
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| Spot / notional | 1.0 |
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| Monte Carlo paths | up to 1,000,000 |
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| Basket convention | worst-of / min-basket |
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| MC quality filter | scenarios kept when `PV_std` ≤ 0.01 |
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| Heston: mean-reversion κ | [1.0, 10.0] |
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| Heston: vol-of-vol ν | [0.01, 1.0] |
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| Heston: price/var corr ρ | [-0.95, -0.10] |
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| Heston: long-run var θ | [0.01, 0.20] |
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| Heston: initial var V₀ | [0.0001, 0.04] |
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Each model family is sampled over multiple parameter draws (`n_models`) and several product
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draws per model (`n_observations`), so the total row count depends on the generation settings
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you run. The published files are produced by re-running the pipeline; regenerate or extend them
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with the CLI documented in the source repository.
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## Data structure
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The data is **wide tabular CSV**, one row per priced scenario, with **~1,531 columns** in the
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full multi-asset configuration. Columns fall into the following groups.
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### Identifiers & metadata
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| Column | Description |
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|--------|-------------|
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| `value_date` | Valuation (pricing) date as a year-fraction |
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| `value_date_memory` | Valuation date for the memory-coupon feature |
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| `model_idx` | Index of the sampled model parameter set |
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| `observation_idx` | Index of the product draw within a model |
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| `frequency` | Observation/fixing frequency |
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| `use_min_basket` | Whether the worst-of / min-basket convention applies |
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### Product terms
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| Column | Description |
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|--------|-------------|
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| `tenor` | Maturity in years |
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| `coupon` | Coupon rate |
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| `coupon_barrier` | Coupon barrier (fraction of spot) |
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| `autocall_barrier` | Autocall (early-redemption) barrier |
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| `is_put` | Whether a down-and-in put applies at maturity |
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| `has_memory` | Whether unpaid coupons accumulate (memory effect) |
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| `strike_put` | Put strike (fraction of spot) |
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### Market state
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| Column | Description |
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|--------|-------------|
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| `rate` | Risk-free rate |
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| `num_assets` | Number of underlying assets (1–4) |
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| `spot_asset_{1..4}` | Initial spot of each asset |
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| `value_date_spot_asset_{1..4}` | Spot at valuation date for each asset |
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| `corr_asset_i_j` | Pairwise correlations between assets |
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### Fixing schedule & implied-volatility surfaces
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| Column | Description |
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|--------|-------------|
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| `Date{1..12}` | Fixing/observation dates (year-fractions) |
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| `Asset{a}_Date{d}_vol_{k}` | Implied volatility for asset `a`, fixing date `d`, strike index `k` (1–31) |
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The `Asset{a}_Date{d}_vol_{1..31}` block encodes a **discretized implied-volatility surface**:
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31 strikes per asset, per fixing date, for up to 4 assets and 12 dates.
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### Target
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| Column | Description |
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|--------|-------------|
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| **`PV`** | **Fair value of the note (regression target)** |
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| `PV_std` | Monte Carlo standard error of `PV` (uncertainty of the label) |
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> **Tip:** treat `PV` as the label and `PV_std` as a per-row noise estimate. Drop `model_idx` /
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> `observation_idx` before training — they are bookkeeping indices, not features. Unused asset
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> slots (when `num_assets < 4`) are zero-filled.
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## Usage
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```python
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from datasets import load_dataset
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ds = load_dataset("VegaInstitute/autocallable-notes-pricing", split="train")
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print(ds.features) # columns
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print(ds[0]["PV"]) # target for the first scenario
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```
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With pandas:
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```python
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import pandas as pd
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df = pd.read_csv("hf://datasets/VegaInstitute/autocallable-notes-pricing/data/heston/dataset.csv")
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y = df["PV"]
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X = df.drop(columns=["PV", "PV_std", "model_idx", "observation_idx"])
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```
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## Limitations & biases
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- **Synthetic, not observed.** Prices and volatility surfaces come from model assumptions, not
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traded quotes; a model trained here learns *the simulated pricer*, not real-market mispricings.
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- **Label noise.** `PV` carries Monte Carlo error; use `PV_std` to weight or filter rows.
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- **Model coverage.** Limited to Bachelier, Black–Scholes, CEV, and Heston with the parameter
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ranges above; out-of-range terms are out of distribution.
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- **Wide and sparse.** The volatility-surface block dominates the column count; for `num_assets < 4`
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many columns are zero-filled.
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- **Rate = 0.** Generated with a zero risk-free rate by default.
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## Source code & reproduction
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Generation pipeline, configs, and CLI:
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**https://github.com/VegaInstitute/RG-ML-Autocall-Dataset**
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```bash
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python gen.py --model heston
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```
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## License
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Released under **Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY-4.0)**.
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You may share and adapt the data, including commercially, with appropriate attribution.
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## Citation
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```bibtex
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@misc{vegainstitute_autocall_synthetic,
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title = {Autocallable Notes Pricing (Synthetic)},
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author = {Vega Institute},
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year = {2026},
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howpublished = {Hugging Face Datasets},
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url = {https://huggingface.co/datasets/VegaInstitute/autocallable-notes-pricing},
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note = {Synthetic Monte Carlo dataset for pricing autocallable structured notes}
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}
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```
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