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2019-05-02 | 2019-01-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-19", 0.35], ["2019-01-19", 0.517], ["2019-01-19", 0.462], ["2019-01-19", 0.462], ["2019-01-19", 0.47], ["2019-01-19", 0.49], ["2019-01-20", 0.49], ["2019-01-20", 0.528], ["2019-01-20", 0.547], ["2019-01-21", 0.547], ["2019-01-21", 0.569], ["2019-01-21", 0.564], ["2019-01-21", 0.564], ["2019-01-22", 0.558], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2573/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | It was previously asked, whether the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be stopped before it killed 400 people. Sadly, that question resolved negatively and the death toll (as of the writing of this question) has reached 402.
It is unclear whether the outbreak will be contained in the ... | true | 2019-03-16 | Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-10-15 | 2019-01-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-01", 0.6], ["2020-07-02", 0.53], ["2020-07-02", 0.47], ["2020-07-02", 0.47], ["2020-07-02", 0.47], ["2020-07-02", 0.47], ["2020-07-03", 0.47], ["2020-07-03", 0.412], ["2020-07-03", 0.448], ["2020-07-03", 0.429], ["2020-07-03", 0.444], ["2020-07-04", 0.43], ["2020-07-04", 0.43], ["2020-07-04", 0.429], ["2020-... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2578/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Context
Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):
KITE KRAFT
Kitepower
SkySails Group
Ampyx Power
SkyPull
The basic a... | true | 2021-10-01 | Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-27 | 2019-01-18 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-21", 0.99], ["2019-01-21", 0.698], ["2019-01-21", 0.61], ["2019-01-21", 0.673], ["2019-01-21", 0.664], ["2019-01-21", 0.693], ["2019-01-22", 0.657], ["2019-01-22", 0.657], ["2019-01-22", 0.646], ["2019-01-22", 0.65], ["2019-01-22", 0.65], ["2019-01-22", 0.658], ["2019-01-23", 0.658], ["2019-01-23", 0.664], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2580/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 18 January 2019, the White House announced that United States President Donald Trump would meet again with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un near the end of February.
This question asks: Will Trump meet Kim before 01 April 2019?
For a positive resolution, the two men must be physically present (i.e. not a meeting by t... | true | 2019-02-14 | Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-10-22 | 2019-01-20 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-23", 0.75], ["2019-01-24", 0.664], ["2019-01-25", 0.667], ["2019-01-26", 0.642], ["2019-01-28", 0.642], ["2019-01-29", 0.64], ["2019-01-31", 0.641], ["2019-02-03", 0.641], ["2019-02-04", 0.637], ["2019-02-06", 0.637], ["2019-02-13", 0.636], ["2019-02-21", 0.634], ["2019-03-01", 0.631], ["2019-03-03", 0.603],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2583/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The next Canadian federal election will elect members of the House of Commons on or before October 21, 2019.
This question will resolve positive if the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reports that the Liberal Party of Canada won the most parliamentary seats, or ties with another party for the most number of seats. | true | 2019-10-21 | Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2019-01-24 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-27", 0.5], ["2019-01-27", 0.35], ["2019-01-27", 0.35], ["2019-01-27", 0.35], ["2019-01-27", 0.332], ["2019-01-27", 0.31], ["2019-01-27", 0.31], ["2019-01-27", 0.303], ["2019-01-27", 0.302], ["2019-01-28", 0.31], ["2019-01-28", 0.31], ["2019-01-28", 0.312], ["2019-01-28", 0.296], ["2019-01-28", 0.296], ["2019... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2587/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | In 2017, Leonardo da Vinci's Salvator Mundi sold at auction at Christie's in New York City for $450.3 million. The painting was sold by Dmitry Rybolovlev and the buyer was the Abu Dhabi Department of Culture & Tourism. This was the highest price ever paid for a single piece of art.
This question asks: Before 1 January ... | true | 2019-05-31 | Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2019-01-24 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-28", 0.5], ["2019-01-28", 0.642], ["2019-01-29", 0.6], ["2019-01-30", 0.61], ["2019-01-31", 0.604], ["2019-02-01", 0.617], ["2019-02-04", 0.612], ["2019-02-12", 0.614], ["2019-02-12", 0.62], ["2019-02-14", 0.622], ["2019-02-15", 0.624], ["2019-02-17", 0.632], ["2019-02-18", 0.642], ["2019-02-20", 0.642], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2588/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | As of January 24th 2019, Tesla Inc has a market capitalization of $50.062 billion and Ford Motor Company has a market capitalization of $34.21 billion.
Ford was founded in 1903 and in 2017 produced 6.6 million vehicles generating revenue of $156.7 billion, with a net income of $7.602 billion.
Tesla was founded in 2003 ... | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2019-01-28 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-31", 0.6], ["2019-01-31", 0.4], ["2019-01-31", 0.406], ["2019-01-31", 0.38], ["2019-01-31", 0.349], ["2019-01-31", 0.326], ["2019-01-31", 0.315], ["2019-01-31", 0.299], ["2019-02-01", 0.298], ["2019-02-01", 0.286], ["2019-02-01", 0.284], ["2019-02-01", 0.287], ["2019-02-01", 0.292], ["2019-02-01", 0.282], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2597/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Venezuela is currently undergoing a serious economic, social and now constitutional crisis. Amidst years of accelerating economic decline, hyperinflation and poverty, and accusations that President Maduro is turning the country, once the richest in Latin America, into a dictatorship, the leader of the National Assembly... | true | 2019-03-01 | Will US troops intervene in Venezuela? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2019-01-28 | [] | binary | [["2020-10-09", 0.465], ["2020-10-10", 0.578], ["2020-10-12", 0.564], ["2020-10-13", 0.59], ["2020-10-20", 0.59], ["2020-10-22", 0.586], ["2020-10-24", 0.587], ["2020-11-05", 0.593], ["2020-11-18", 0.594], ["2020-11-18", 0.594], ["2020-12-01", 0.594], ["2020-12-01", 0.6], ["2020-12-05", 0.6], ["2020-12-05", 0.594], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2598/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?
This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022. | true | 2022-01-01 | Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-12 | 2019-01-29 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-01", 0.6], ["2019-02-03", 0.531], ["2019-02-05", 0.499], ["2019-02-06", 0.545], ["2019-02-08", 0.553], ["2019-02-11", 0.556], ["2019-02-13", 0.58], ["2019-02-16", 0.578], ["2019-02-18", 0.579], ["2019-02-25", 0.579], ["2019-02-26", 0.57], ["2019-02-28", 0.565], ["2019-03-01", 0.566], ["2019-03-03", 0.566], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2601/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The United Kingdom is the world's fifth-largest economy and hasn't suffered a recession since 2009. With the result of the 2016 Brexit vote due to be implemented in 2019, and with the UK now 10 years into a period of economic growth, there are concerns that a recession could be looming in the near future.
This question... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-17 | 2019-01-30 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-02", 0.4], ["2019-02-02", 0.48], ["2019-02-03", 0.442], ["2019-02-03", 0.442], ["2019-02-04", 0.522], ["2019-02-04", 0.52], ["2019-02-05", 0.521], ["2019-02-06", 0.526], ["2019-02-06", 0.526], ["2019-02-07", 0.544], ["2019-02-07", 0.541], ["2019-02-08", 0.536], ["2019-02-08", 0.548], ["2019-02-12", 0.546], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2603/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | A follow-up to this question.
As of the close of trading on 30 January 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sat at 25,014.86.
The DJIA is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various p... | true | 2019-04-30 | Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-31 | 2019-01-31 | [] | binary | [["2021-01-01", 0.85], ["2021-01-02", 0.306], ["2021-01-03", 0.361], ["2021-01-03", 0.301], ["2021-01-04", 0.282], ["2021-01-05", 0.288], ["2021-01-06", 0.29], ["2021-01-08", 0.289], ["2021-01-11", 0.287], ["2021-01-11", 0.281], ["2021-01-22", 0.302], ["2021-01-23", 0.302], ["2021-01-25", 0.302], ["2021-01-26", 0.301],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2606/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Due to the DeepMind team's recent achievements with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications.
One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but doe... | true | 2021-11-01 | Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-06-05 | 2019-02-04 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-07", 0.3], ["2019-02-07", 0.3], ["2019-02-07", 0.333], ["2019-02-07", 0.333], ["2019-02-07", 0.312], ["2019-02-07", 0.31], ["2019-02-08", 0.311], ["2019-02-08", 0.282], ["2019-02-08", 0.284], ["2019-02-08", 0.284], ["2019-02-09", 0.284], ["2019-02-10", 0.308], ["2019-02-11", 0.308], ["2019-02-11", 0.283], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2610/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | An election to the Senate of the Netherlands will be held on 27 May 2019, two months after the provincial elections.
The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the States-Provincial of the country's twelve provinces, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens on March 20 2019.
Th... | true | 2019-05-26 | Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-07-21 | 2019-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-11", 0.7], ["2019-02-11", 0.75], ["2019-02-11", 0.74], ["2019-02-11", 0.78], ["2019-02-11", 0.711], ["2019-02-11", 0.711], ["2019-02-11", 0.733], ["2019-02-11", 0.741], ["2019-02-11", 0.736], ["2019-02-12", 0.722], ["2019-02-12", 0.716], ["2019-02-12", 0.721], ["2019-02-12", 0.712], ["2019-02-12", 0.704], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2613/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Sir Richard Branson announced in February 2019 that he "hopes" to fly to space, aboard Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, on the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing.
Will he fail?
Resolves negatively if Richard Branson is both alive and at an altitude above 80km at any point on 2019-07-20. The way he reached th... | true | 2019-03-30 | Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-15 | 2019-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-08", 0.46], ["2019-02-08", 0.417], ["2019-02-08", 0.478], ["2019-02-08", 0.478], ["2019-02-09", 0.438], ["2019-02-09", 0.46], ["2019-02-09", 0.449], ["2019-02-09", 0.435], ["2019-02-09", 0.427], ["2019-02-09", 0.41], ["2019-02-09", 0.41], ["2019-02-09", 0.451], ["2019-02-09", 0.451], ["2019-02-09", 0.454], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2614/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The recent 35-day government shut down was ended with a 3-week temporary funding bill. the funding lasts through February 15th; if a shutdown occurs, it will begin on the 16th.
Will that shutdown occur?
The question resolves positively if there is some lapse of funding for some federal departments and services on Febru... | true | 2019-02-14 | Will the US government shut down on February 16th? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-21 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.75], ["2019-02-26", 0.755], ["2019-02-26", 0.787], ["2019-02-26", 0.778], ["2019-02-26", 0.698], ["2019-02-26", 0.698], ["2019-02-26", 0.698], ["2019-02-26", 0.673], ["2019-02-26", 0.676], ["2019-02-27", 0.676], ["2019-02-27", 0.675], ["2019-02-27", 0.675], ["2019-02-27", 0.668], ["2019-02-27", 0.695]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2624/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which origi... | true | 2019-07-01 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.58], ["2019-02-27", 0.673], ["2019-02-28", 0.669], ["2019-03-01", 0.648], ["2019-03-02", 0.646], ["2019-03-03", 0.641], ["2019-03-03", 0.638], ["2019-03-04", 0.646], ["2019-03-07", 0.646], ["2019-03-10", 0.646], ["2019-03-12", 0.645], ["2019-03-13", 0.638], ["2019-03-14", 0.638], ["2019-03-15", 0.641]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2625/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have, like many effective altruists before them, made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. Their set of 2019 forecasts is high-profile modeling of excellent epistemic norms, and we at Metaculus of course support their endeavor. N... | true | 2019-07-15 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.64], ["2019-02-26", 0.64], ["2019-02-26", 0.62], ["2019-02-27", 0.633], ["2019-02-27", 0.65], ["2019-02-27", 0.684], ["2019-02-27", 0.669], ["2019-02-27", 0.669], ["2019-02-27", 0.616], ["2019-02-27", 0.628], ["2019-02-27", 0.631], ["2019-02-27", 0.631], ["2019-02-27", 0.657], ["2019-02-27", 0.657], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2626/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which origi... | true | 2019-07-01 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018 | metaculus | 1 |
2019-09-29 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.63], ["2019-02-26", 0.498], ["2019-02-26", 0.498], ["2019-02-26", 0.537], ["2019-02-26", 0.56], ["2019-02-27", 0.558], ["2019-02-27", 0.558], ["2019-02-27", 0.562], ["2019-02-27", 0.578], ["2019-02-27", 0.568], ["2019-02-27", 0.552], ["2019-02-27", 0.545], ["2019-02-27", 0.554], ["2019-02-27", 0.552],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2627/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which origi... | true | 2019-07-01 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019 | metaculus | 0 |
2020-02-03 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.61], ["2019-02-26", 0.788], ["2019-02-26", 0.74], ["2019-02-26", 0.8], ["2019-02-27", 0.8], ["2019-02-27", 0.793], ["2019-02-27", 0.793], ["2019-02-27", 0.796], ["2019-02-27", 0.745], ["2019-02-27", 0.733], ["2019-02-27", 0.733], ["2019-02-27", 0.743], ["2019-02-27", 0.735], ["2019-02-27", 0.724], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2629/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which origi... | true | 2019-07-01 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018 | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-04 | 2019-02-21 | [] | binary | [["2019-03-17", 0.36], ["2019-03-18", 0.261], ["2019-03-19", 0.302], ["2019-03-20", 0.286], ["2019-03-21", 0.286], ["2019-03-22", 0.288], ["2019-03-22", 0.294], ["2019-03-25", 0.297], ["2019-03-27", 0.298], ["2019-03-27", 0.299], ["2019-04-02", 0.299], ["2019-04-08", 0.298], ["2019-04-16", 0.299], ["2019-04-18", 0.299]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2631/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In a recent interview the CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, stated that Tesla would be able to roll out a fully autonomous autopilot (software) for their fleet by the end of 2020 that would enable a driver to fall asleep behind the wheel and wake up in the parking lot of their destination. “I think we will be ‘feature-complete’... | true | 2019-12-23 | Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-01 | 2019-03-13 | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/teslas-elon-m\u2026"] | binary | [["2019-03-17", 0.9], ["2019-03-17", 0.9], ["2019-03-17", 0.915], ["2019-03-17", 0.938], ["2019-03-18", 0.938], ["2019-03-18", 0.91], ["2019-03-18", 0.908], ["2019-03-18", 0.9], ["2019-03-18", 0.9], ["2019-03-18", 0.905], ["2019-03-18", 0.896], ["2019-03-18", 0.896], ["2019-03-18", 0.89], ["2019-03-18", 0.89], ["2019-0... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2647/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Will Elon Musk still be the CEO of Tesla at the end of the year? The SEC is taking close notice of his recent activities, and the narrative seems to be shifting away from him.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/teslas-elon-m…
Resolves as "Yes" if Musk is still the active Chief Executive Officer of Tesla Motors, Inc (TSLA)... | true | 2019-04-02 | Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-02-12 | 2019-03-15 | [] | binary | [["2019-03-19", 0.05], ["2019-03-21", 0.058], ["2019-03-22", 0.086], ["2019-03-25", 0.084], ["2019-03-26", 0.086], ["2019-03-28", 0.086], ["2019-03-30", 0.086], ["2019-04-04", 0.085], ["2019-04-04", 0.087], ["2019-04-08", 0.088], ["2019-04-08", 0.087], ["2019-04-12", 0.087], ["2019-04-13", 0.084], ["2019-04-15", 0.087]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2657/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Andrew Yang (Wikipedia) is a democratic candidate for president known, among other things, for proposing a Universal Basic Income dubbed the "Freedom Dividend" and a focus on the impact of automation on jobs.
He's relatively young for a presidential candidate, with an entrepreneurial background and an extensive policy ... | true | 2020-02-12 | Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2019-03-24 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-23", 0.4], ["2019-04-23", 0.475], ["2019-04-23", 0.517], ["2019-04-23", 0.512], ["2019-04-23", 0.538], ["2019-04-23", 0.538], ["2019-04-23", 0.612], ["2019-04-23", 0.619], ["2019-04-23", 0.632], ["2019-04-24", 0.632], ["2019-04-24", 0.605], ["2019-04-24", 0.595], ["2019-04-24", 0.579], ["2019-04-25", 0.579],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2664/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Mark Latham is an Australian politician. In general, he is known for courting controversy, as can be seen by the 'Post-political life' section of his Wikipedia page. Until 2017, he was a member of the left-wing Labor Party, and was the leader of the Parliamentary party between the 2nd of December 2003 and the 18th of J... | true | 2020-06-01 | Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-04-12 | 2019-03-24 | [] | binary | [["2019-03-28", 0.575], ["2019-03-28", 0.433], ["2019-03-28", 0.488], ["2019-03-28", 0.388], ["2019-03-28", 0.388], ["2019-03-28", 0.367], ["2019-03-28", 0.409], ["2019-03-28", 0.411], ["2019-03-28", 0.411], ["2019-03-29", 0.407], ["2019-03-29", 0.402], ["2019-03-29", 0.398], ["2019-03-29", 0.408], ["2019-03-29", 0.438... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2667/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The UK’s exit from the EU is a fluid and uncertain process, and has been the subject of many questions here at Metaculus.
A quick recap:
The UK referendum’d to leave the EU. On 29 March 2017 the UK invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which governs withdrawal from the EU. A withdrawal agreement was negot... | true | 2019-04-09 | Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-03-25 | 2019-03-25 | [] | binary | [["2019-03-28", 0.5], ["2019-04-01", 0.765], ["2019-04-07", 0.768], ["2019-04-10", 0.77], ["2019-04-18", 0.787], ["2019-04-22", 0.783], ["2019-04-26", 0.801], ["2019-05-03", 0.801], ["2019-05-08", 0.804], ["2019-05-13", 0.804], ["2019-05-21", 0.802], ["2019-05-23", 0.802], ["2019-06-01", 0.8], ["2019-06-08", 0.798], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2669/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The 2008 financial crisis was "considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s".
According to the World Bank (series ID: NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).
Question: Will the Worl... | true | 2021-03-24 | Will World GDP grow every year until 2025? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-02 | 2019-03-26 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-29", 0.04], ["2019-04-29", 0.135], ["2019-04-29", 0.13], ["2019-04-29", 0.122], ["2019-04-29", 0.122], ["2019-04-29", 0.133], ["2019-04-29", 0.133], ["2019-04-29", 0.138], ["2019-04-29", 0.138], ["2019-04-29", 0.167], ["2019-04-30", 0.167], ["2019-04-30", 0.184], ["2019-04-30", 0.176], ["2019-04-30", 0.189],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2670/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this Bloomberg article, and a similar take by the South China Morning Post.... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-12 | 2019-03-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-03", 0.8], ["2019-04-03", 0.737], ["2019-04-03", 0.778], ["2019-04-03", 0.778], ["2019-04-03", 0.82], ["2019-04-03", 0.842], ["2019-04-03", 0.842], ["2019-04-03", 0.835], ["2019-04-03", 0.859], ["2019-04-03", 0.859], ["2019-04-03", 0.864], ["2019-04-03", 0.848], ["2019-04-03", 0.853], ["2019-04-03", 0.853], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2706/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Abdelaziz Bouteflika has been ruling Algeria since 1999, when the country was still in the throes of a civil war that only ended in 2002. This first election was quite controversial, but adhered to nevertheless.
The 2004 election were a vast improvement, reflecting the Algerian people's desire to see Bouteflika's rule ... | true | 2019-05-09 | Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-04-13 | 2019-04-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-06", 0.55], ["2019-04-07", 0.75], ["2019-04-07", 0.758], ["2019-04-07", 0.76], ["2019-04-07", 0.76], ["2019-04-07", 0.75], ["2019-04-07", 0.75], ["2019-04-07", 0.749], ["2019-04-07", 0.749], ["2019-04-07", 0.742], ["2019-04-07", 0.722], ["2019-04-07", 0.722], ["2019-04-07", 0.708], ["2019-04-07", 0.7], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2712/ | OpenAI has announced the final live event for OpenAI five will be a series of matches against OG, the reigning world champions. OpenAI Five had previously played against human players at the International, and lost the majority of the matches played.
Have the past eight months been enough time for them to build a world... | Sports | Will OpenAI win a majority of the matches played against OG at thee OpenAI Five Finals on April 13th?
Resolution
The total number of matches will be the number of matches played live between OG and OpenAI Five.
For the purposes of question resolution OG will be considered the team that is fielded on April 13th - e.g. i... | true | 2019-04-13 | Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-05-29 | 2019-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-07", 0.6], ["2019-04-07", 0.517], ["2019-04-07", 0.599], ["2019-04-08", 0.595], ["2019-04-08", 0.613], ["2019-04-08", 0.619], ["2019-04-08", 0.616], ["2019-04-08", 0.621], ["2019-04-08", 0.627], ["2019-04-08", 0.625], ["2019-04-09", 0.639], ["2019-04-09", 0.643], ["2019-04-09", 0.65], ["2019-04-09", 0.649], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2714/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Swedish YouTuber, comedian and gamer–commentator PewDiePie and Indian record label T-Series are in a neck-and-neck race to be the first YouTube channel to reach a 100 million subscriber count.
At the time of writing, PewDiePie has over 93M subscribers, compared to the 92.7M for T-Series. T-Series has temporarily overta... | true | 2019-04-30 | Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-02-02 | 2019-05-15 | [] | binary | [["2019-06-05", 0.1], ["2019-06-05", 0.134], ["2019-06-05", 0.155], ["2019-06-06", 0.159], ["2019-06-07", 0.174], ["2019-06-07", 0.194], ["2019-06-07", 0.194], ["2019-06-08", 0.194], ["2019-06-08", 0.207], ["2019-06-09", 0.207], ["2019-06-10", 0.207], ["2019-06-10", 0.203], ["2019-06-10", 0.213], ["2019-06-11", 0.213],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2749/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) states that "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements".
The UK invoked Article 50 on March 2017, triggering a two-year process of exiting the European Union. However, the process has been fraught with d... | true | 2019-09-30 | Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-02-29 | 2019-05-15 | [] | binary | [["2019-06-14", 0.8], ["2019-06-15", 0.808], ["2019-06-15", 0.811], ["2019-06-16", 0.805], ["2019-06-16", 0.808], ["2019-06-16", 0.812], ["2019-06-17", 0.818], ["2019-06-17", 0.818], ["2019-06-17", 0.823], ["2019-06-19", 0.823], ["2019-06-20", 0.809], ["2019-06-21", 0.809], ["2019-06-22", 0.811], ["2019-06-22", 0.81], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2793/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | This is a replacement of a previous question whose title and resolution criterion clashed, and was resolved ambiguous to prevent unfair losses of MIPs.
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which started in August 2018, is now "out of control". It was previously asked whether it would kill more than 4... | true | 2019-09-30 | Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-11-19 | 2019-05-17 | ["https://www.top500.org/statistics/list/:"] | binary | [["2019-05-24", 0.7], ["2019-05-24", 0.65], ["2019-05-25", 0.567], ["2019-05-25", 0.624], ["2019-05-25", 0.624], ["2019-05-25", 0.649], ["2019-05-26", 0.649], ["2019-05-26", 0.632], ["2019-05-28", 0.661], ["2019-05-29", 0.661], ["2019-05-29", 0.676], ["2019-05-29", 0.665], ["2019-05-29", 0.667], ["2019-05-30", 0.665], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2753/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The TOP500 list of the highest-performing computing systems is published twice per year, generally in June and November. Question will be resolved according to the data associated with the November 2019 TOP500 list. To access the data, visit https://www.top500.org/statistics/list/:
Select 'November 2019' from the 'TOP5... | true | 2019-10-31 | Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-11-30 | 2019-05-25 | [] | binary | [["2019-05-29", 0.635], ["2019-05-29", 0.635], ["2019-05-30", 0.613], ["2019-05-30", 0.708], ["2019-05-31", 0.723], ["2019-05-31", 0.691], ["2019-05-31", 0.689], ["2019-05-31", 0.689], ["2019-06-02", 0.71], ["2019-06-03", 0.714], ["2019-06-09", 0.714], ["2019-06-11", 0.701], ["2019-06-12", 0.695], ["2019-06-15", 0.687]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2766/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In December 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 14-month, $3.9-billion loan program for Ukraine (IMF Press Release, Bloomberg1, IMF-Ukraine). According to Bloomberg1:
Fund clears first $1.4 billion tranche from new package
The International Monetary Fund approved a new $3.9 billion bailout program fo... | true | 2019-11-29 | Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2019-05-27 | [] | binary | [["2019-05-29", 0.245], ["2019-06-04", 0.147], ["2019-06-08", 0.156], ["2019-06-10", 0.148], ["2019-06-14", 0.143], ["2019-06-18", 0.142], ["2019-06-21", 0.137], ["2019-06-26", 0.132], ["2019-07-01", 0.13], ["2019-07-03", 0.13], ["2019-07-25", 0.13], ["2019-07-27", 0.128], ["2019-08-01", 0.128], ["2019-08-14", 0.125], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2773/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Nigel Paul Farage, born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence P... | true | 2022-01-07 | Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2019-06-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-06-16", 0.1], ["2019-06-17", 0.204], ["2019-06-19", 0.202], ["2019-06-20", 0.216], ["2019-06-22", 0.211], ["2019-06-22", 0.211], ["2019-06-25", 0.21], ["2019-06-29", 0.213], ["2019-06-29", 0.213], ["2019-06-30", 0.221], ["2019-07-01", 0.222], ["2019-07-13", 0.224], ["2019-07-21", 0.222], ["2019-07-21", 0.221], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2791/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Among the various issues that have beset the once-booming cryptocurrency markets is a high degree of regulatory uncertainty, especially in the US where the SEC has taken a rather firm stance that cryptocurrencies constituted securities and fall under the purview of securities laws of various types.
That might change wi... | true | 2020-12-30 | Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-30 | 2019-06-17 | [] | binary | [["2019-06-20", 0.66], ["2019-06-21", 0.38], ["2019-06-21", 0.337], ["2019-06-21", 0.355], ["2019-06-21", 0.388], ["2019-06-21", 0.398], ["2019-06-21", 0.372], ["2019-06-21", 0.361], ["2019-06-22", 0.404], ["2019-06-22", 0.403], ["2019-06-22", 0.428], ["2019-06-22", 0.433], ["2019-06-22", 0.433], ["2019-06-22", 0.428],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2794/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On June 13, 2019, two oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz while transiting the Gulf of Oman. The Japanese Kokuka Courageous and Norwegian Front Altair were attacked, allegedly with limpet mines or flying objects, causing fire damage to both ships. This followed from an apparent attack on four ships in M... | true | 2019-09-02 | Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-27 | 2019-06-26 | [] | binary | [["2019-06-29", 0.21], ["2019-06-29", 0.242], ["2019-06-29", 0.24], ["2019-06-29", 0.229], ["2019-06-30", 0.229], ["2019-06-30", 0.217], ["2019-06-30", 0.217], ["2019-07-01", 0.217], ["2019-07-01", 0.212], ["2019-07-01", 0.236], ["2019-07-01", 0.234], ["2019-07-01", 0.22], ["2019-07-02", 0.225], ["2019-07-02", 0.221], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2809/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
A "significant leadership disruption" includes confirmed reports that the leader has:
resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),
lost a confidence vote,
formally left office,
died,
been forcibly rem... | true | 2019-08-22 | Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-25 | 2019-07-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-09", 0.495], ["2019-07-09", 0.413], ["2019-07-09", 0.407], ["2019-07-09", 0.312], ["2019-07-09", 0.373], ["2019-07-10", 0.395], ["2019-07-10", 0.396], ["2019-07-10", 0.396], ["2019-07-10", 0.405], ["2019-07-10", 0.424], ["2019-07-11", 0.424], ["2019-07-11", 0.396], ["2019-07-11", 0.387], ["2019-07-11", 0.369... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2926/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
A "national military attack" includes the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces (to include special forces) on another country's military, military assets, or territory, including citizens... | true | 2019-10-05 | Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-07-30 | 2019-07-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-04", 0.67], ["2019-07-05", 0.32], ["2019-07-05", 0.32], ["2019-07-05", 0.367], ["2019-07-05", 0.423], ["2019-07-05", 0.426], ["2019-07-05", 0.415], ["2019-07-05", 0.439], ["2019-07-05", 0.469], ["2019-07-06", 0.441], ["2019-07-06", 0.429], ["2019-07-06", 0.424], ["2019-07-07", 0.426], ["2019-07-07", 0.429], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2927/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
Spanish elections in April 2019 resulted in the Partido Socialista Obrero Espaol (PSOE, or the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) gaining the most seats in the Congress of Deputies, but not the majority required to form a government on its own (E... | true | 2019-07-30 | Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-02 | 2019-07-02 | ["https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch;"] | binary | [["2019-07-06", 0.69], ["2019-07-06", 0.74], ["2019-07-06", 0.765], ["2019-07-06", 0.693], ["2019-07-06", 0.596], ["2019-07-07", 0.596], ["2019-07-07", 0.579], ["2019-07-07", 0.579], ["2019-07-07", 0.538], ["2019-07-07", 0.544], ["2019-07-08", 0.542], ["2019-07-08", 0.539], ["2019-07-08", 0.559], ["2019-07-08", 0.559],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2928/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
The International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin, Crisis Watch, provides short, country-specific updates on political and security developments worldwide, assessing in each case whether the overall situation has deteriorated, improved, or remai... | true | 2019-07-31 | Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-30 | 2019-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-08", 0.35], ["2019-07-09", 0.267], ["2019-07-09", 0.239], ["2019-07-09", 0.227], ["2019-07-10", 0.223], ["2019-07-10", 0.229], ["2019-07-11", 0.229], ["2019-07-11", 0.223], ["2019-07-11", 0.223], ["2019-07-12", 0.245], ["2019-07-12", 0.246], ["2019-07-12", 0.244], ["2019-07-13", 0.248], ["2019-07-13", 0.254]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2931/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As of the time of writing this question, Election Betting Odds reports that Donald Trump has a 47.4% of winning the US presidency.
Will Election Betting Odds report a higher than 60.0% chance of Trump winning the US presidency in 2020 for any 1 hour period before 23:59 November 30, 2019? | true | 2019-09-22 | Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-01 | 2019-07-10 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-13", 0.32], ["2019-07-13", 0.535], ["2019-07-13", 0.524], ["2019-07-13", 0.524], ["2019-07-14", 0.52], ["2019-07-14", 0.527], ["2019-07-14", 0.497], ["2019-07-15", 0.508], ["2019-07-15", 0.519], ["2019-07-15", 0.527], ["2019-07-15", 0.525], ["2019-07-17", 0.525], ["2019-07-17", 0.534], ["2019-07-18", 0.534],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2934/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
Frequent and sometimes even deadly attacks against the Ebola response efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) threaten successful containment of the disease to DRC's borders (Economist, AlJazeera, Vox, France24). Some high risk cou... | true | 2019-11-29 | Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-30 | 2019-07-10 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-12", 0.47], ["2019-07-13", 0.251], ["2019-07-14", 0.246], ["2019-07-14", 0.251], ["2019-07-15", 0.241], ["2019-07-15", 0.272], ["2019-07-16", 0.28], ["2019-07-17", 0.294], ["2019-07-17", 0.331], ["2019-07-19", 0.334], ["2019-07-19", 0.334], ["2019-07-20", 0.33], ["2019-07-20", 0.318], ["2019-07-21", 0.317], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2936/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) is a human spaceflight development program that is funded by the U.S. government and administered by NASA. CCDev will result in US and international astronauts flying to the International Space Station (ISS) on privately operated crew vehicles.
Operational contracts to fly astronauts... | true | 2019-10-31 | Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-01 | 2019-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-14", 0.37], ["2019-07-15", 0.37], ["2019-07-15", 0.31], ["2019-07-15", 0.307], ["2019-07-15", 0.355], ["2019-07-15", 0.364], ["2019-07-15", 0.364], ["2019-07-15", 0.343], ["2019-07-15", 0.343], ["2019-07-15", 0.306], ["2019-07-16", 0.306], ["2019-07-17", 0.27], ["2019-07-18", 0.27], ["2019-07-20", 0.26], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2938/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
The EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions (also called the "EU blacklist of tax havens") was established by the Finance Ministers of EU Member States to indicate countries that fail to meet agreed upon "tax good governance" standards. Thi... | true | 2019-10-31 | Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-14 | 2019-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-14", 0.6], ["2019-07-15", 0.635], ["2019-07-15", 0.635], ["2019-07-15", 0.532], ["2019-07-15", 0.532], ["2019-07-15", 0.542], ["2019-07-15", 0.542], ["2019-07-15", 0.553], ["2019-07-15", 0.562], ["2019-07-16", 0.573], ["2019-07-16", 0.539], ["2019-07-16", 0.559], ["2019-07-16", 0.564], ["2019-07-17", 0.559],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2939/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
In the wake of the recent measles outbreak across Europe (EuroNews), German Health Minister Jens Spahn has drafted legislation imposing a fine on parents who refuse the measles vaccine for their children (TheGuardian). Adoption by the Bundestag ... | true | 2019-11-29 | Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-01 | 2019-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-20", 0.4], ["2019-07-21", 0.279], ["2019-07-22", 0.337], ["2019-07-23", 0.342], ["2019-07-23", 0.365], ["2019-07-25", 0.365], ["2019-07-25", 0.349], ["2019-07-27", 0.349], ["2019-07-28", 0.347], ["2019-07-30", 0.358], ["2019-07-31", 0.361], ["2019-08-01", 0.335], ["2019-08-05", 0.337], ["2019-08-23", 0.337],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2945/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Related question: What will be the daily volume of Facebook's Libra coin by Oct 1st 2020?
Amid the hype of the new Facebook cryptocurrency initiative Libra, there has been a corresponding backlash, with hearings in Congress about anti-competitive behavior and potential anti-trust violations.
Facebook's been known to mo... | true | 2020-05-01 | Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-01 | 2019-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-20", 0.53], ["2019-07-20", 0.505], ["2019-07-21", 0.613], ["2019-07-22", 0.598], ["2019-07-22", 0.605], ["2019-07-23", 0.605], ["2019-07-24", 0.601], ["2019-07-25", 0.6], ["2019-07-28", 0.6], ["2019-07-28", 0.59], ["2019-07-30", 0.595], ["2019-07-31", 0.59], ["2019-08-01", 0.566], ["2019-08-01", 0.556], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2946/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana declared his Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019 and enjoyed an impressive rise in name recognition and campaign contributions. As of mid-July 2019 he stands at around 5% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other s... | true | 2020-03-02 | Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-13 | 2019-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-20", 0.72], ["2019-07-20", 0.703], ["2019-07-20", 0.68], ["2019-07-20", 0.778], ["2019-07-21", 0.772], ["2019-07-21", 0.761], ["2019-07-21", 0.751], ["2019-07-22", 0.762], ["2019-07-22", 0.767], ["2019-07-22", 0.778], ["2019-07-22", 0.778], ["2019-07-23", 0.79], ["2019-07-23", 0.791], ["2019-07-23", 0.795], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2947/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Junior Senator from New Jersey and former Newark Mayor Cory Booker declared his Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019, bringing a strong resume and an impressive number of endorsements from New Jersey politicians. As of mid-July 2019 he stands at around 2% in the polling averages. It is still early, b... | true | 2020-06-01 | Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-01-01 | 2019-07-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-22", 0.275], ["2019-07-23", 0.513], ["2019-07-24", 0.504], ["2019-07-26", 0.509], ["2019-07-27", 0.522], ["2019-07-28", 0.522], ["2019-07-30", 0.529], ["2019-07-31", 0.521], ["2019-08-02", 0.496], ["2019-08-09", 0.489], ["2019-08-09", 0.486], ["2019-08-26", 0.486], ["2019-08-28", 0.49], ["2019-08-31", 0.499]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2951/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Neuralink Corporation is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).
Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 m... | true | 2020-05-31 | Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-01 | 2019-07-25 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-30", 0.23], ["2019-07-31", 0.536], ["2019-07-31", 0.527], ["2019-08-01", 0.5], ["2019-08-01", 0.501], ["2019-08-02", 0.501], ["2019-08-03", 0.498], ["2019-08-03", 0.499], ["2019-08-04", 0.5], ["2019-08-05", 0.505], ["2019-08-05", 0.487], ["2019-08-06", 0.487], ["2019-08-06", 0.501], ["2019-08-07", 0.501], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2961/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | New Conservative leader, Boris Johnson, proclaimed in his first speech as Prime Minister:
We are going to fulfill the repeated promises of parliament to the people and come out of the EU on October 31, no ifs or buts. And we will do a new deal, a better deal that will maximise the opportunities of Brexit while allowing... | true | 2019-10-01 | Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-29 | 2019-08-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-05", 0.46], ["2019-08-05", 0.557], ["2019-08-05", 0.532], ["2019-08-05", 0.532], ["2019-08-05", 0.438], ["2019-08-05", 0.419], ["2019-08-05", 0.4], ["2019-08-05", 0.383], ["2019-08-05", 0.383], ["2019-08-05", 0.44], ["2019-08-05", 0.458], ["2019-08-05", 0.476], ["2019-08-06", 0.476], ["2019-08-06", 0.468], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2971/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The Great British Pound (GBP) recently fell to its lowest level against the Euro (EUR) in two years. It is currently (2nd of August 2019) trading at around €1.093.
Will the GBP trade at equal to, or less than, €1.000 at any time before January 1st, 2020?
Current and historical rates are available from XE Currency Data.... | true | 2019-08-31 | British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-13 | 2019-08-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-06", 0.75], ["2019-08-06", 0.75], ["2019-08-06", 0.775], ["2019-08-06", 0.775], ["2019-08-06", 0.75], ["2019-08-06", 0.75], ["2019-08-06", 0.732], ["2019-08-06", 0.754], ["2019-08-06", 0.76], ["2019-08-06", 0.78], ["2019-08-06", 0.764], ["2019-08-06", 0.76], ["2019-08-07", 0.756], ["2019-08-07", 0.756], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2975/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia).
As a proxy for the popularity of the protests, we can look at the daily Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" in Hong Kong (Google Trends).
Question: Betwe... | true | 2019-08-10 | [Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-02-04 | 2019-08-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-09", 0.15], ["2019-08-09", 0.15], ["2019-08-10", 0.185], ["2019-08-10", 0.185], ["2019-08-10", 0.185], ["2019-08-10", 0.174], ["2019-08-10", 0.174], ["2019-08-11", 0.174], ["2019-08-11", 0.174], ["2019-08-11", 0.165], ["2019-08-11", 0.168], ["2019-08-11", 0.168], ["2019-08-11", 0.167], ["2019-08-11", 0.179],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2976/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | According to analysis in the 2018 AI Index report, publications on arXiv in the subcategory “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” have represented a plurality of AI publications since 2014.
In 2017 36.74% of AI publications on arXiv were in “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” and 14.42% were in “Computation a... | true | 2019-12-31 | Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-03 | 2019-08-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-09", 0.31], ["2019-08-10", 0.31], ["2019-08-10", 0.572], ["2019-08-10", 0.568], ["2019-08-11", 0.602], ["2019-08-11", 0.597], ["2019-08-11", 0.595], ["2019-08-12", 0.601], ["2019-08-12", 0.601], ["2019-08-13", 0.601], ["2019-08-14", 0.615], ["2019-08-14", 0.615], ["2019-08-14", 0.614], ["2019-08-15", 0.614],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2982/ | The SuperGlue Benchmark measures progress in language understanding tasks.
The original benchmark, GLUE (General Language Understanding Evaluation) is a collection of language understanding tasks built on established existing datasets and selected to cover a diverse range of dataset sizes, text genres, and degrees of d... | Science & Tech | This question will be resolved as true if, according to the public SuperGLUE benchmark leaderboard, a single entry has a score of 90% or higher. This question closes and resolves retroactively 48 hours before the first such score is listed on the SuperGLUE benchmark leaderboard. | true | 2019-12-30 | By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-09-07 | 2019-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-09", 0.33], ["2019-08-10", 0.272], ["2019-08-10", 0.272], ["2019-08-10", 0.285], ["2019-08-10", 0.285], ["2019-08-10", 0.291], ["2019-08-11", 0.299], ["2019-08-11", 0.299], ["2019-08-11", 0.325], ["2019-08-12", 0.312], ["2019-08-12", 0.317], ["2019-08-12", 0.361], ["2019-08-12", 0.361], ["2019-08-12", 0.365]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2985/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia).
On the 6th of August 2019, Chinese officials hardened their rethoric (Reuters: 1, 2, 3), but still did not mention the possibility of direct intervention from the... | true | 2019-08-31 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-07 | 2019-08-12 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_season", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady#2022_season"] | binary | [["2019-08-15", 0.5], ["2019-08-15", 0.66], ["2019-08-16", 0.66], ["2019-08-16", 0.605], ["2019-08-16", 0.528], ["2019-08-16", 0.556], ["2019-08-16", 0.556], ["2019-08-16", 0.556], ["2019-08-16", 0.547], ["2019-08-16", 0.547], ["2019-08-16", 0.55], ["2019-08-17", 0.544], ["2019-08-18", 0.544], ["2019-08-18", 0.55], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3026/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Tom Brady is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention ... | true | 2019-10-11 | Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-17 | 2019-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-14", 0.2], ["2019-08-14", 0.4], ["2019-08-14", 0.467], ["2019-08-14", 0.45], ["2019-08-14", 0.45], ["2019-08-14", 0.425], ["2019-08-14", 0.425], ["2019-08-14", 0.397], ["2019-08-14", 0.369], ["2019-08-14", 0.369], ["2019-08-14", 0.327], ["2019-08-14", 0.33], ["2019-08-14", 0.319], ["2019-08-14", 0.288], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3029/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | The Hong Kong protesters have recently started occupying Hong Kong Intl. Airport, disrupting many flights.
According to the Hong Kong Intl. Airport's website, on the 12th of August 2019, 118 of 522 departing flights (23%) had been cancelled. As of writing, for the 13th of August, 218 of 511 departing flights were cance... | true | 2019-08-15 | [Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-28 | 2019-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-16", 0.6], ["2019-08-16", 0.69], ["2019-08-16", 0.68], ["2019-08-16", 0.704], ["2019-08-16", 0.722], ["2019-08-16", 0.715], ["2019-08-16", 0.727], ["2019-08-16", 0.736], ["2019-08-16", 0.743], ["2019-08-16", 0.743], ["2019-08-17", 0.765], ["2019-08-17", 0.775], ["2019-08-17", 0.773], ["2019-08-17", 0.773], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3030/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kirsten Gillibrand, junior United States Senator for New York and former New York congresswoman, launched her Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019. She has a "soaring national profile in the U.S. Senate" (Politico) and a particular appeal to college-educated women, but has struggled to break 1% in po... | true | 2020-04-27 | Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-19 | 2019-08-17 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-19", 0.17], ["2019-08-21", 0.761], ["2019-08-22", 0.724], ["2019-08-23", 0.726], ["2019-08-25", 0.711], ["2019-08-26", 0.719], ["2019-08-28", 0.72], ["2019-08-29", 0.739], ["2019-08-31", 0.731], ["2019-08-31", 0.729], ["2019-09-03", 0.732], ["2019-09-04", 0.708], ["2019-09-05", 0.707], ["2019-09-07", 0.707],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3035/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Hawaii Congresswoman Tusli Gabbard, a former Honolulu city councilor and Hawaii state representative, declared her Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019. Though once considered a rising star by the party establishment, she has since become a pariah for what she sees as "stand[ing] strong against [...]... | true | 2020-04-03 | Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-08-29 | 2019-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-22", 0.675], ["2019-08-22", 0.675], ["2019-08-22", 0.62], ["2019-08-22", 0.615], ["2019-08-22", 0.597], ["2019-08-22", 0.59], ["2019-08-22", 0.59], ["2019-08-22", 0.583], ["2019-08-22", 0.611], ["2019-08-22", 0.611], ["2019-08-22", 0.602], ["2019-08-22", 0.587], ["2019-08-22", 0.587], ["2019-08-22", 0.578], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3038/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On the 20th of August 2019, the PM of Italy resigned (AFP).
Now a new coalition must be formed, to allow the President of Italy to name a new Prime Minister.
Question: Will the President of Italy fail to name a new Prime Minister before the end of August 2019?
Resolution shall be by credible media report. The end of Au... | true | 2019-08-31 | [Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-10-05 | 2019-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-25", 0.84], ["2019-08-25", 0.855], ["2019-08-25", 0.855], ["2019-08-25", 0.77], ["2019-08-25", 0.742], ["2019-08-25", 0.738], ["2019-08-25", 0.74], ["2019-08-25", 0.734], ["2019-08-26", 0.734], ["2019-08-26", 0.746], ["2019-08-26", 0.746], ["2019-08-26", 0.738], ["2019-08-26", 0.746], ["2019-08-27", 0.746], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3041/ | Chandrayaan-2 is India's second lunar exploration mission after Chandrayaan-1. Developed by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the mission was launched from the second launch pad at Satish Dhawan Space Centre on 22 July 2019 at 2.43 PM IST (09:13 UTC) to the Moon by a Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle... | Science & Tech | The question resolves positively if the lander is sufficiently intact upon landing so that the carried rover, the Pragyan rover, has functioning control and motor dynamics for at least 1 hour after impact. | true | 2019-09-05 | Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-10-01 | 2019-08-30 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-01", 0.5], ["2019-09-02", 0.661], ["2019-09-02", 0.588], ["2019-09-02", 0.584], ["2019-09-02", 0.569], ["2019-09-02", 0.569], ["2019-09-02", 0.518], ["2019-09-03", 0.518], ["2019-09-03", 0.517], ["2019-09-03", 0.511], ["2019-09-03", 0.517], ["2019-09-03", 0.506], ["2019-09-03", 0.507], ["2019-09-04", 0.5], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3057/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | As tenthkrige wrote in their question:
Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia)."
Since then the Beijing government has hardened their rhetoric. Chinese state owned media suggested military intervention. ... | true | 2019-09-30 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-15 | 2019-09-04 | ["https://twitter.com/rogerfederer"] | binary | [["2019-09-08", 0.655], ["2019-09-08", 0.587], ["2019-09-08", 0.587], ["2019-09-08", 0.587], ["2019-09-08", 0.592], ["2019-09-09", 0.592], ["2019-09-09", 0.516], ["2019-09-15", 0.516], ["2019-09-19", 0.478], ["2019-09-22", 0.48], ["2019-09-23", 0.478], ["2019-09-27", 0.489], ["2019-09-29", 0.455], ["2019-10-01", 0.455]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3071/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | The Grand Slam tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.
Roger Federer has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most... | true | 2020-01-19 | Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-09-22 | 2019-09-04 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-07", 0.33], ["2019-09-07", 0.36], ["2019-09-07", 0.338], ["2019-09-07", 0.45], ["2019-09-07", 0.45], ["2019-09-08", 0.45], ["2019-09-08", 0.453], ["2019-09-08", 0.444], ["2019-09-08", 0.444], ["2019-09-08", 0.444], ["2019-09-08", 0.448], ["2019-09-08", 0.455], ["2019-09-08", 0.455], ["2019-09-08", 0.446], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3072/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Wikipedia:
Presidential elections are scheduled to take place in Tunisia on 15 September 2019. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be no later than 3 November.
Businessman and Politician Nabil Karoui led the last legal poll in July 2019 (Wikipedia list of polls), but:
On July 8, 2019... | true | 2019-09-15 | Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-07 | 2019-09-08 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-11", 0.5], ["2019-09-11", 0.5], ["2019-09-11", 0.42], ["2019-09-12", 0.465], ["2019-09-12", 0.438], ["2019-09-12", 0.398], ["2019-09-12", 0.398], ["2019-09-12", 0.439], ["2019-09-12", 0.424], ["2019-09-13", 0.431], ["2019-09-14", 0.431], ["2019-09-16", 0.402], ["2019-09-17", 0.406], ["2019-09-18", 0.406], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3083/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | After Deepmind's successful rollout of AlphaStar against Mana, the AI lab started to test AlphaStar against players online. In this iteration AlphaStar has a limited field of view and more APM restrictions.
Some redditors are reporting that AlphaStar is getting creamed; however, their methodology of tracking and findin... | true | 2019-10-31 | By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-19 | 2019-09-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-16", 0.38], ["2019-09-16", 0.427], ["2019-09-16", 0.42], ["2019-09-16", 0.433], ["2019-09-16", 0.414], ["2019-09-17", 0.422], ["2019-09-17", 0.415], ["2019-09-17", 0.409], ["2019-09-17", 0.409], ["2019-09-17", 0.408], ["2019-09-17", 0.408], ["2019-09-17", 0.424], ["2019-09-18", 0.424], ["2019-09-19", 0.422],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3098/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As you may have heard, America is electing a President next year. The Democratic Party's process for selecting its nominee begins on February 3, 2020, with the Iowa caucuses, and ends in mid-July at the Democratic National Convention.
The question here is simple. Will the presidential candidate who receives the most su... | true | 2019-12-22 | Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-01 | 2019-09-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-16", 0.33], ["2019-09-16", 0.21], ["2019-09-16", 0.286], ["2019-09-16", 0.35], ["2019-09-16", 0.375], ["2019-09-17", 0.385], ["2019-09-17", 0.385], ["2019-09-17", 0.387], ["2019-09-17", 0.393], ["2019-09-18", 0.385], ["2019-09-18", 0.375], ["2019-09-18", 0.375], ["2019-09-19", 0.389], ["2019-09-19", 0.389], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3100/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | [Related to Will Brexit happen by End of Day Oct. 31st 2019?]
One of the key scenario paths where Britain leaves the EU before Oct. 31st is if one of the other 27 EU countries vetos an extension. At previous Brexit deadlines EU member states agreed to extend the process; however, it seems there's a notable frustration ... | true | 2019-10-31 | Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-04-19 | 2019-09-18 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-23", 0.8], ["2019-09-25", 0.697], ["2019-09-26", 0.676], ["2019-09-27", 0.676], ["2019-09-29", 0.708], ["2019-09-30", 0.716], ["2019-10-02", 0.71], ["2019-10-04", 0.71], ["2019-10-06", 0.714], ["2019-10-09", 0.719], ["2019-10-17", 0.719], ["2019-10-25", 0.716], ["2019-10-26", 0.716], ["2019-10-30", 0.717], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3110/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | NASA is putting a small (2 kg, 1 m) helicopter on the Mars 2020 Rover. It is very much a proof of concept, being designed for 5 short (3 min.) flights and only carrying a camera. But it opens the door to much more ambitious powered flight vehicles on Mars and elsewhere.
Question: Will the JPL Mars Helicopeter Scout mou... | true | 2020-07-16 | Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-04 | 2019-09-24 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-29", 0.4], ["2019-09-30", 0.289], ["2019-09-30", 0.301], ["2019-10-01", 0.302], ["2019-10-06", 0.294], ["2019-10-06", 0.288], ["2019-10-07", 0.294], ["2019-10-07", 0.294], ["2019-10-09", 0.295], ["2019-10-09", 0.297], ["2019-10-20", 0.298], ["2019-10-26", 0.307], ["2019-10-30", 0.305], ["2019-11-06", 0.305],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3121/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In 2018, Oregon’s attorney general has approved language for a ballot measure to make psychedelic mushrooms legal. Oregon Public Broadcasting reports that the measure would reduce criminal penalties for the manufacture, delivery and possession of psilocybin — the hallucinogen contained in psychedelic mushrooms (Oregonl... | true | 2020-10-30 | Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-23 | 2019-09-26 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-28", 0.01], ["2019-09-28", 0.055], ["2019-09-29", 0.072], ["2019-09-29", 0.099], ["2019-09-29", 0.099], ["2019-09-29", 0.103], ["2019-09-29", 0.086], ["2019-09-29", 0.093], ["2019-09-29", 0.157], ["2019-09-29", 0.154], ["2019-09-29", 0.146], ["2019-09-30", 0.138], ["2019-09-30", 0.148], ["2019-09-30", 0.146]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3134/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Following the Watergate scandal, an impeachment process against Richard Nixon began in the United States House of Representatives on October 30, 1973.
Before the House could vote on the impeachment resolutions, Nixon made public on August 5, 1974 a transcript of one of the additional conversations, known as the "Smokin... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-15 | 2019-09-28 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-02", 0.33], ["2019-10-02", 0.215], ["2019-10-02", 0.285], ["2019-10-03", 0.265], ["2019-10-04", 0.265], ["2019-10-04", 0.263], ["2019-10-04", 0.249], ["2019-10-05", 0.241], ["2019-10-05", 0.234], ["2019-10-06", 0.235], ["2019-10-07", 0.239], ["2019-10-08", 0.237], ["2019-10-09", 0.239], ["2019-10-10", 0.239]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3140/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve to maintain depository institutions' reserv... | true | 2020-03-01 | Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-30 | 2019-09-28 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-01", 0.95], ["2019-10-01", 0.825], ["2019-10-01", 0.783], ["2019-10-01", 0.787], ["2019-10-01", 0.79], ["2019-10-01", 0.82], ["2019-10-01", 0.82], ["2019-10-01", 0.821], ["2019-10-01", 0.824], ["2019-10-01", 0.817], ["2019-10-01", 0.804], ["2019-10-01", 0.812], ["2019-10-01", 0.812], ["2019-10-01", 0.825], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3145/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | There is discussion in the political press about whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would be required to take articles of impeachment to a trial, and some make the case that he could block a trial, as he has blocked many other legislative efforts passed to the Senate from the House.
At a minimum, it would b... | true | 2019-11-15 | If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-02-02 | 2019-10-03 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-07", 0.42], ["2019-10-08", 0.721], ["2019-10-08", 0.738], ["2019-10-09", 0.724], ["2019-10-10", 0.745], ["2019-10-10", 0.745], ["2019-10-11", 0.751], ["2019-10-12", 0.746], ["2019-10-12", 0.712], ["2019-10-13", 0.716], ["2019-10-15", 0.711], ["2019-10-16", 0.704], ["2019-10-17", 0.69], ["2019-10-18", 0.686],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3193/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | It's been a while since we've had a nice, old-fashioned SpaceX rocket question. But Musk has been touting a new giant stainless steel Starship prototype, with plans that
In just one to two months, SpaceX will launch the Starship Mk1 up to a height of approximately 65,000 feet (20 kilometers) before returning to Earth a... | true | 2020-01-30 | Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-19 | 2019-10-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-13", 0.3], ["2019-10-15", 0.275], ["2019-10-16", 0.282], ["2019-10-18", 0.292], ["2019-10-19", 0.298], ["2019-10-21", 0.293], ["2019-10-21", 0.292], ["2019-10-23", 0.291], ["2019-10-24", 0.287], ["2019-10-25", 0.288], ["2019-10-26", 0.276], ["2019-10-27", 0.281], ["2019-10-30", 0.288], ["2019-10-31", 0.285],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3198/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Joe Biden is an American politician who served as the 47th vice president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. Biden also represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Biden is a candidate for president in the 2020 election (Wikipedia).
Will Joe Biden be the 2020 Democr... | true | 2020-03-12 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-01 | 2019-10-15 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-19", 0.2], ["2019-10-19", 0.2], ["2019-10-19", 0.2], ["2019-10-19", 0.228], ["2019-10-19", 0.206], ["2019-10-19", 0.206], ["2019-10-19", 0.197], ["2019-10-20", 0.186], ["2019-10-20", 0.18], ["2019-10-20", 0.18], ["2019-10-21", 0.177], ["2019-10-21", 0.167], ["2019-10-21", 0.158], ["2019-10-21", 0.182], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3234/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | This question is based on a question from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
Aramco is considering an initial public offering in the near future, which may involve first listing on the Saudi Stock exchange.
This question resolves positively if Saudi Arabian Oil Company's (Aramco's) stock are listed on any stock ... | true | 2019-11-21 | Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-30 | 2019-10-15 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-18", 0.5], ["2019-10-19", 0.5], ["2019-10-19", 0.403], ["2019-10-19", 0.405], ["2019-10-20", 0.405], ["2019-10-20", 0.414], ["2019-10-21", 0.44], ["2019-10-21", 0.44], ["2019-10-21", 0.435], ["2019-10-21", 0.433], ["2019-10-21", 0.433], ["2019-10-21", 0.435], ["2019-10-21", 0.408], ["2019-10-22", 0.403], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3235/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
RCEP is a proposed trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners (RCEP, ASEAN). Negotiators have worked on a trade deal for several years, and now hope to have an agreement... | true | 2019-11-15 | Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-28 | 2019-10-26 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-29", 0.1], ["2019-10-29", 0.253], ["2019-10-29", 0.315], ["2019-10-29", 0.302], ["2019-10-29", 0.302], ["2019-10-29", 0.381], ["2019-10-29", 0.412], ["2019-10-29", 0.416], ["2019-10-29", 0.443], ["2019-10-30", 0.443], ["2019-10-30", 0.445], ["2019-10-30", 0.467], ["2019-10-30", 0.482], ["2019-10-30", 0.466],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3252/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Brexit Party is a Eurosceptic political party in the UK currently led by Nigel Farage. As the name suggests they are generally considered a single-issue party advocating for a swift Brexit on WTO terms (AKA a 'no-deal' Brexit).
The party is, at the time of writing, less than one year old (although can be thought of... | true | 2022-05-04 | Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-08 | 2019-10-27 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-30", 0.38], ["2019-10-31", 0.253], ["2019-11-01", 0.278], ["2019-11-02", 0.34], ["2019-11-04", 0.445], ["2019-11-05", 0.445], ["2019-11-06", 0.454], ["2019-11-07", 0.478], ["2019-11-09", 0.471], ["2019-11-11", 0.468], ["2019-11-21", 0.477], ["2019-11-29", 0.468], ["2019-12-01", 0.468], ["2019-12-19", 0.474],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3255/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Psychedelics are a class of drug whose primary action is to trigger psychedelic experiences via serotonin receptor agonism, causing thought and visual/auditory changes, and altered state of consciousness. Common psychedelic drugs include mescaline, LSD, psilocybin and DMT.
Many psychedelic drugs are illegal worldwide u... | true | 2020-11-01 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-05 | 2019-10-27 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-30", 0.56], ["2019-10-31", 0.226], ["2019-11-02", 0.24], ["2019-11-04", 0.304], ["2019-11-05", 0.323], ["2019-11-07", 0.33], ["2019-11-09", 0.327], ["2019-11-11", 0.321], ["2019-11-15", 0.321], ["2019-12-04", 0.322], ["2019-12-26", 0.323], ["2019-12-28", 0.325], ["2019-12-30", 0.327], ["2020-01-01", 0.348], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3256/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | According to a study by research website Comparitech, eight out of the ten most surveilled cities in the world are in China. The country has been making headlines for its generous use of surveillance technology and is featured heavily throughout the whole ranking that looked at 120 cities globally. According to Compari... | true | 2020-10-01 | By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-02 | 2019-10-29 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.155], ["2019-11-04", 0.1], ["2019-11-07", 0.122], ["2019-11-11", 0.122], ["2019-11-13", 0.123], ["2019-11-21", 0.124], ["2019-11-23", 0.126], ["2019-12-01", 0.128], ["2019-12-03", 0.138], ["2019-12-05", 0.142], ["2019-12-08", 0.152], ["2019-12-10", 0.155], ["2019-12-11", 0.162], ["2019-12-25", 0.164],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3263/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | DeepMind is a UK company founded in September 2010, currently owned by Alphabet Inc. The company has been at the forefront of research in artificial intelligence (Holcomb et al., 2018).
The company has recently not been profitable, however. According to the FT,
The artificial intelligence subsidiary of Alphabet, saw it... | true | 2020-10-09 | By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-09-20 | 2019-10-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.1], ["2019-11-03", 0.326], ["2019-11-04", 0.273], ["2019-11-05", 0.275], ["2019-11-06", 0.268], ["2019-11-06", 0.265], ["2019-11-07", 0.265], ["2019-11-11", 0.279], ["2019-11-12", 0.279], ["2019-11-13", 0.275], ["2019-11-21", 0.275], ["2019-11-22", 0.266], ["2019-11-23", 0.266], ["2019-12-01", 0.265],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3267/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Recently, it's become increasingly acknowledged that directly targeting the aging process, as opposed to individual aging-related diseases or symptoms, is a viable strategy (Magalhães et al., 2017). This is leading to R&D with the ultimate aim of commercializing therapies directed at slowing aging itself.
One of the mo... | true | 2020-09-30 | Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-04 | 2019-10-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.72], ["2019-11-04", 0.584], ["2019-11-07", 0.577], ["2019-11-12", 0.576], ["2019-11-21", 0.574], ["2019-11-23", 0.572], ["2019-11-29", 0.571], ["2019-12-01", 0.571], ["2019-12-13", 0.571], ["2019-12-16", 0.571], ["2019-12-18", 0.563], ["2019-12-20", 0.556], ["2019-12-21", 0.549], ["2019-12-25", 0.534]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3268/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The China–United States trade war is an ongoing economic conflict between the world’s two largest national economies. President Donald Trump in 2018 began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. says are "unfair trade practices".
So far, the US has ... | true | 2020-09-30 | Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-23 | 2019-10-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.23], ["2019-11-03", 0.586], ["2019-11-04", 0.518], ["2019-11-04", 0.521], ["2019-11-05", 0.512], ["2019-11-05", 0.502], ["2019-11-06", 0.487], ["2019-11-07", 0.486], ["2019-11-08", 0.476], ["2019-11-23", 0.476], ["2019-12-01", 0.469], ["2019-12-17", 0.455], ["2019-12-17", 0.455], ["2019-12-25", 0.457]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3270/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | According to Leafscience, a life extension advocacy foundation, the thymus is one of the most important organs in the body, and potentially a suitable target for therapies that seek to extend the human health-span:
it is where thymocytes produced in the bone marrow travel to become new T cells before being trained in t... | true | 2020-09-30 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-04 | 2019-10-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.29], ["2019-11-04", 0.415], ["2019-11-05", 0.424], ["2019-11-07", 0.424], ["2019-11-11", 0.432], ["2019-11-19", 0.432], ["2019-11-22", 0.433], ["2019-11-23", 0.432], ["2019-11-30", 0.432], ["2019-12-05", 0.432], ["2019-12-26", 0.437], ["2019-12-27", 0.434], ["2019-12-31", 0.438], ["2020-01-02", 0.455]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3284/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Recently, it's become increasingly acknowledged that directly targeting the aging process, as opposed to individual aging-related diseases or symptoms, is a viable strategy (Magalhães et al., 2017). This is leading to R&D with the ultimate aim of commercializing therapies directed at slowing aging itself.
One of the mo... | true | 2020-09-30 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-02 | 2019-11-01 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.245], ["2019-11-04", 0.29], ["2019-11-06", 0.292], ["2019-11-07", 0.289], ["2019-11-11", 0.292], ["2019-11-12", 0.291], ["2019-11-19", 0.291], ["2019-11-20", 0.288], ["2019-11-23", 0.284], ["2019-11-26", 0.284], ["2019-11-30", 0.286], ["2019-12-01", 0.281], ["2019-12-04", 0.281], ["2019-12-06", 0.281]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3281/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | A blockchain, is a growing list of records, called blocks, that are linked using cryptography. Each block contains a cryptographic hash of the previous block, a timestamp, and transaction data.
Blockchain was invented by a person (or group of people) using the name Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 to serve as the public transa... | true | 2020-09-30 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-08 | 2019-11-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.25], ["2019-11-03", 0.361], ["2019-11-05", 0.48], ["2019-11-07", 0.474], ["2019-11-11", 0.47], ["2019-11-12", 0.477], ["2019-11-23", 0.479], ["2019-11-23", 0.476], ["2019-11-29", 0.478], ["2019-12-01", 0.477], ["2019-12-07", 0.479], ["2019-12-21", 0.476], ["2019-12-26", 0.476], ["2019-12-27", 0.48], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3283/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | While here we are all fans of making probabilistic predictions and thinking clearly and quantitatively about all sorts of future issues, the fact is that this way of thinking is as yet not at all mainstream.
As of November 2019, searches by the author of "prediction market", "predictit", "metaculus", "good judgement pr... | true | 2020-09-01 | By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-08 | 2019-11-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.15], ["2019-11-03", 0.38], ["2019-11-04", 0.359], ["2019-11-04", 0.334], ["2019-11-05", 0.329], ["2019-11-06", 0.31], ["2019-11-07", 0.314], ["2019-11-18", 0.302], ["2019-11-21", 0.292], ["2019-11-23", 0.288], ["2019-12-01", 0.291], ["2019-12-01", 0.291], ["2019-12-05", 0.292], ["2019-12-17", 0.292], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3285/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | A digit is the finger or toe of land vertebrates, the skeleton of which consists of small bones called phalanges. The tips of the digits are usually protected keratinous structures (claws, in the case of mice) which are also used for defence or manipulation. Digits are numbered one through five, beginning with the insi... | true | 2020-09-30 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-20 | 2019-11-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-04", 0.01], ["2019-11-04", 0.01], ["2019-11-04", 0.09], ["2019-11-04", 0.108], ["2019-11-04", 0.116], ["2019-11-04", 0.116], ["2019-11-04", 0.126], ["2019-11-04", 0.141], ["2019-11-04", 0.188], ["2019-11-04", 0.166], ["2019-11-04", 0.164], ["2019-11-04", 0.164], ["2019-11-04", 0.165], ["2019-11-05", 0.168], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3286/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Nextbigfuture predicts that the efforts to recall California Governor Newsom will succeed in getting over 1.5 million signatures certified before the February 2020 and/or March 2020 deadlines. This would force a special recall vote with an up-down on the recall and votes for a possible replacement.
Under California law... | true | 2020-01-15 | Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-08 | 2019-11-15 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-19", 0.38], ["2019-11-19", 0.29], ["2019-11-20", 0.303], ["2019-11-21", 0.303], ["2019-11-21", 0.318], ["2019-11-23", 0.312], ["2019-11-23", 0.312], ["2019-11-26", 0.301], ["2019-11-26", 0.301], ["2019-11-26", 0.316], ["2019-11-26", 0.31], ["2019-11-26", 0.326], ["2019-11-26", 0.326], ["2019-11-26", 0.333], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3345/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | It is estimated that 60% of the biomass of mammals are livestock. The overwhelming majority of these animals are raised in factory farms, where conditions can involve “intense confinement, inhibition of natural behaviors, untreated health issues, and numerous other causes of suffering”.[1]
World Animal Protection is ex... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-12 | 2019-11-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-22", 0.56], ["2019-11-22", 0.473], ["2019-11-23", 0.473], ["2019-11-23", 0.405], ["2019-11-23", 0.345], ["2019-11-23", 0.324], ["2019-11-23", 0.328], ["2019-11-23", 0.317], ["2019-11-23", 0.297], ["2019-11-24", 0.278], ["2019-11-24", 0.278], ["2019-11-24", 0.251], ["2019-11-25", 0.251], ["2019-11-25", 0.243]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3358/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia).
The Guardian reports that on the 16th of November 2019:
On Saturday afternoon, a few dozen Chinese soldiers jogged out of their barracks in triple file line, wear... | true | 2019-12-31 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-08 | 2019-11-25 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-29", 0.385], ["2019-11-29", 0.385], ["2019-11-29", 0.377], ["2019-11-29", 0.38], ["2019-11-30", 0.38], ["2019-11-30", 0.338], ["2019-12-04", 0.308], ["2019-12-04", 0.308], ["2019-12-04", 0.3], ["2019-12-04", 0.3], ["2019-12-11", 0.286], ["2019-12-16", 0.29], ["2019-12-17", 0.29], ["2019-12-27", 0.284], ["202... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3374/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Recent work in neuroscience suggests that consciousness may not depend on a highly developed cortex, or on any particular brain structure. In 2012, an international group of neuroscientists released "The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness," arguing that nonhuman animals (including all mammals, birds, octopuses, and... | true | 2021-05-31 | Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-08 | 2019-12-04 | [] | binary | [["2019-12-12", 0.08], ["2019-12-13", 0.48], ["2019-12-14", 0.617], ["2019-12-16", 0.647], ["2019-12-16", 0.667], ["2019-12-17", 0.697], ["2019-12-19", 0.72], ["2019-12-20", 0.726], ["2019-12-22", 0.743], ["2019-12-30", 0.743], ["2020-01-12", 0.794], ["2020-01-16", 0.794], ["2020-01-20", 0.794], ["2020-01-22", 0.801], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3398/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In Janurary 2016 Physical Review Letters published a paper by a Hungarian research group reporting anomalous results in the decays of excited beryllium-8 atoms. A careful analysis posted in an April 2016 paper suggests that this anomaly is consistent with the existence of a hitherto unknown light (17 MeV) vector boson.... | true | 2021-01-08 | Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-01 | 2019-12-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-12-12", 0.45], ["2019-12-12", 0.55], ["2019-12-12", 0.542], ["2019-12-13", 0.523], ["2019-12-13", 0.545], ["2019-12-13", 0.545], ["2019-12-13", 0.587], ["2019-12-13", 0.587], ["2019-12-13", 0.586], ["2019-12-14", 0.579], ["2019-12-14", 0.574], ["2019-12-14", 0.579], ["2019-12-14", 0.562], ["2019-12-14", 0.588],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3401/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | On 2019-12-03, North Korea's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs issued a statement through the Korean Central News Agency. The statement concluded:
What is left to be done now is the U.S. option and it is entirely up to the U.S. what Christmas gift it will select to get
This is hardly the first time the North Korean gove... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-21 | 2019-12-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-10", 0.9], ["2020-01-10", 0.853], ["2020-01-10", 0.855], ["2020-01-11", 0.844], ["2020-01-11", 0.69], ["2020-01-11", 0.722], ["2020-01-11", 0.722], ["2020-01-11", 0.738], ["2020-01-11", 0.738], ["2020-01-11", 0.82], ["2020-01-11", 0.819], ["2020-01-12", 0.818], ["2020-01-12", 0.814], ["2020-01-12", 0.817], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3440/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The US Democratic Party selects its candidate for president at the Democratic National Convention. For this upcoming election, the DNC will be held at The Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin between July 13 to July 16, 2020 (Wikipedia).
At this convention, a vote among 3,979 pledged delegates is held during the first ... | true | 2020-03-05 | Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-01-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-03", 0.65], ["2020-01-04", 0.667], ["2020-01-04", 0.612], ["2020-01-04", 0.592], ["2020-01-04", 0.593], ["2020-01-04", 0.589], ["2020-01-04", 0.571], ["2020-01-04", 0.571], ["2020-01-04", 0.581], ["2020-01-04", 0.551], ["2020-01-04", 0.559], ["2020-01-04", 0.562], ["2020-01-04", 0.562], ["2020-01-04", 0.494]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3444/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | S&P 500 Index (Ticker SPX) is large-cap U.S. equities price index that covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization. It covers 500 large public companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
S&P 500 closed 3,230.78 Dec. 31, 2019.
Resolves positively in the event that value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 3... | true | 2020-01-31 | Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-12-31 | 2020-01-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-08", 0.75], ["2020-01-14", 0.868], ["2020-01-18", 0.871], ["2020-01-25", 0.871], ["2020-02-02", 0.872], ["2020-02-14", 0.872], ["2020-02-22", 0.878], ["2020-02-28", 0.878], ["2020-03-06", 0.873], ["2020-03-11", 0.874], ["2020-03-16", 0.874], ["2020-03-25", 0.873], ["2020-03-31", 0.873], ["2020-04-05", 0.875]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3445/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kim Jong-un, born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have be... | true | 2021-12-01 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-01-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-05", 0.64], ["2020-01-09", 0.328], ["2020-01-12", 0.301], ["2020-01-14", 0.285], ["2020-01-18", 0.285], ["2020-01-22", 0.317], ["2020-01-25", 0.319], ["2020-01-28", 0.342], ["2020-01-30", 0.342], ["2020-02-04", 0.342], ["2020-02-04", 0.341], ["2020-02-14", 0.34], ["2020-02-17", 0.347], ["2020-02-22", 0.347],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3446/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Over the years, North Korea has conducted a number of missile tests as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures
As of 30 November 2017, North Korea had carried out 117 t... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-01-04 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-08", 0.105], ["2020-01-12", 0.095], ["2020-01-14", 0.079], ["2020-01-18", 0.069], ["2020-01-21", 0.066], ["2020-01-22", 0.069], ["2020-01-25", 0.069], ["2020-01-30", 0.069], ["2020-02-02", 0.068], ["2020-02-06", 0.067], ["2020-02-12", 0.067], ["2020-02-15", 0.067], ["2020-02-17", 0.067], ["2020-02-22", 0.069... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3451/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Under president Trump, the US goverment has adopted a policy of maximum presure towards the government of Iran, in an effort to curb its nuclear ambitions and proxy warfare. The US has, however, stopped short of calling for regime change in Iran and has thus far avoided striking targets inside of Iran. Experts have war... | true | 2021-01-01 | US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-01-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-09", 0.01], ["2020-01-12", 0.16], ["2020-01-15", 0.146], ["2020-01-18", 0.146], ["2020-01-21", 0.14], ["2020-01-26", 0.138], ["2020-01-29", 0.135], ["2020-01-30", 0.136], ["2020-02-02", 0.136], ["2020-02-04", 0.133], ["2020-02-06", 0.128], ["2020-02-09", 0.13], ["2020-02-12", 0.129], ["2020-02-15", 0.128], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3462/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Recent escalation between US and Iran, culminating (so far) in killing of Qasem Soleimani, led to a lot of talk about war between US and Iran being possible.
So the question is: will there be a war between the United States of America and Iran in 2020?
For the purpose of this questions, the war between US and Iran is d... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-02 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.3], ["2020-01-15", 0.701], ["2020-01-18", 0.708], ["2020-01-21", 0.705], ["2020-01-23", 0.692], ["2020-02-01", 0.7], ["2020-02-01", 0.7], ["2020-02-15", 0.686], ["2020-02-20", 0.688], ["2020-02-23", 0.688], ["2020-02-26", 0.686], ["2020-03-02", 0.679], ["2020-03-07", 0.677], ["2020-03-11", 0.667], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3481/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism (Wikipedia). CRISPR/Cas9 is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.
On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made... | true | 2021-03-01 | Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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