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2020-12-31 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.43], ["2020-01-16", 0.506], ["2020-01-19", 0.479], ["2020-01-21", 0.476], ["2020-01-23", 0.476], ["2020-01-26", 0.471], ["2020-01-28", 0.468], ["2020-01-30", 0.484], ["2020-02-01", 0.49], ["2020-02-04", 0.491], ["2020-02-06", 0.491], ["2020-02-13", 0.495], ["2020-02-14", 0.496], ["2020-02-18", 0.496],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3482/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | During Benjamin Netanyahu's fourth premiership, a number of alleged corruption scandals have been investigated involving Netanyahu and his close political circle. Police recommended indictments against Netanyahu, and on 21 November 2019, Netanyahu was officially indicted for breach of trust, accepting bribes and fraud ... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.38], ["2020-01-16", 0.786], ["2020-01-17", 0.79], ["2020-01-18", 0.821], ["2020-01-20", 0.822], ["2020-01-22", 0.782], ["2020-01-25", 0.801], ["2020-01-27", 0.801], ["2020-02-01", 0.804], ["2020-02-01", 0.785], ["2020-02-15", 0.781], ["2020-02-18", 0.781], ["2020-02-23", 0.779], ["2020-03-06", 0.779],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3483/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Gene drives are phenomena in a species' population in which one version of a gene, or allele, is probabilistically favored over other alleles that are otherwise equally favored by fitness. A gene drive in a particular allele shows up as a bias for the corresponding phenotype in the offspring. Consider two parents with ... | true | 2021-01-01 | In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-31 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.9], ["2020-01-14", 0.835], ["2020-01-14", 0.835], ["2020-01-14", 0.9], ["2020-01-14", 0.92], ["2020-01-14", 0.928], ["2020-01-14", 0.882], ["2020-01-14", 0.893], ["2020-01-14", 0.893], ["2020-01-15", 0.887], ["2020-01-15", 0.889], ["2020-01-15", 0.89], ["2020-01-15", 0.89], ["2020-01-15", 0.9], ["2020... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3485/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Brexit withdrawal agreement sets the terms of the withdrawal of the UK from the EU. The original withdrawal agreement was rejected by the House of Commons on three occasions, leading to the resignation of Theresa May as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It was subsequently renegotiated by Boris Johnson, with a ... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-27 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.54], ["2020-01-17", 0.684], ["2020-01-19", 0.717], ["2020-01-21", 0.713], ["2020-01-24", 0.707], ["2020-01-25", 0.717], ["2020-01-27", 0.72], ["2020-01-28", 0.729], ["2020-02-01", 0.729], ["2020-02-04", 0.73], ["2020-02-06", 0.729], ["2020-02-07", 0.754], ["2020-02-10", 0.755], ["2020-02-13", 0.756], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3486/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | So far, Trump appointed two Justices to the Supreme Court of the United States - Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. There are currently no vacancies.
Will Donald Trump fail to appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his first term?
Resolution is positive if at least one of the following ... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-16 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.59], ["2020-01-16", 0.561], ["2020-01-18", 0.558], ["2020-01-20", 0.558], ["2020-01-23", 0.55], ["2020-01-30", 0.55], ["2020-02-01", 0.551], ["2020-02-04", 0.554], ["2020-02-13", 0.559], ["2020-02-14", 0.558], ["2020-02-17", 0.558], ["2020-02-18", 0.55], ["2020-02-21", 0.553], ["2020-02-23", 0.553], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3487/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 (IPCC, 2013). The effects of increased global surface temp... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-27 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.62], ["2020-01-15", 0.53], ["2020-01-15", 0.52], ["2020-01-15", 0.52], ["2020-01-16", 0.507], ["2020-01-16", 0.485], ["2020-01-16", 0.499], ["2020-01-17", 0.509], ["2020-01-17", 0.509], ["2020-01-17", 0.514], ["2020-01-18", 0.519], ["2020-01-18", 0.519], ["2020-01-18", 0.515], ["2020-01-19", 0.515], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3488/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | California has dry, windy, and often hot weather conditions from spring through late autumn that can produce moderate to devastating wildfires. As a result, many wildfires are somewhat of a common occurence in California.
According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, the most destructive wildf... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-02-07 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.65], ["2020-01-16", 0.83], ["2020-01-18", 0.823], ["2020-01-21", 0.823], ["2020-01-23", 0.823], ["2020-01-25", 0.824], ["2020-02-01", 0.826], ["2020-02-01", 0.826], ["2020-02-15", 0.824], ["2020-02-17", 0.824], ["2020-02-23", 0.82], ["2020-02-29", 0.82], ["2020-03-06", 0.822], ["2020-03-09", 0.814], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3489/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Global emissions of CO₂ has the largest global warming potential, compared to all other greenhouse gasses, such as nitrous oxide, methane, and other fluorinated gases. For example, in 2015, 76% of GHG emissions in CO₂ equivalent/yr was just CO₂ (IPPC, 2018). In that year, an estimated 50.9 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent ... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-23 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.33], ["2020-01-14", 0.603], ["2020-01-15", 0.634], ["2020-01-15", 0.643], ["2020-01-16", 0.645], ["2020-01-16", 0.654], ["2020-01-16", 0.659], ["2020-01-17", 0.658], ["2020-01-18", 0.657], ["2020-01-18", 0.657], ["2020-01-20", 0.655], ["2020-01-21", 0.656], ["2020-01-22", 0.654], ["2020-01-23", 0.654]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3490/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | San Francisco banned facial recognition use by city and county agencies in May of 2019. Somerville, Massachusetts followed suit in June of that year. And in July 2019, Oakland, California, became the latest to ban city departments — including police — from using facial-recognition technology.
According to this Vox arti... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.8], ["2020-01-16", 0.803], ["2020-01-18", 0.853], ["2020-01-21", 0.845], ["2020-01-23", 0.835], ["2020-01-25", 0.834], ["2020-02-01", 0.835], ["2020-02-01", 0.833], ["2020-02-15", 0.83], ["2020-02-17", 0.829], ["2020-02-19", 0.828], ["2020-02-21", 0.828], ["2020-02-24", 0.819], ["2020-02-28", 0.82], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3491/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Xinjiang re-education camps are internment camps that have been operated by the Xinjiang Uygur government for the purpose of indoctrinating Uyghur Muslims since 2017 as part of a "people's war on terror" announced in 2014 (Wikipedia).
These camps are reportedly operated outside the legal system and many Uyghurs hav... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-04 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.55], ["2020-01-16", 0.782], ["2020-01-19", 0.773], ["2020-01-22", 0.768], ["2020-01-26", 0.767], ["2020-02-01", 0.767], ["2020-02-02", 0.768], ["2020-02-15", 0.765], ["2020-02-17", 0.771], ["2020-02-20", 0.771], ["2020-02-23", 0.771], ["2020-03-11", 0.768], ["2020-03-14", 0.768], ["2020-03-17", 0.767]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3492/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Currently, with 53 seats, the Republicans occupy a majority of the 100 seats in the Senate (Senate.gov).
The 2020 United States Senate elections will be held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 Class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections.
According to Vox's Dylan Matthews, the Republican stronghold ca... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-10 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.55], ["2020-01-14", 0.38], ["2020-01-14", 0.47], ["2020-01-14", 0.478], ["2020-01-15", 0.462], ["2020-01-15", 0.455], ["2020-01-15", 0.519], ["2020-01-15", 0.519], ["2020-01-15", 0.446], ["2020-01-15", 0.446], ["2020-01-16", 0.455], ["2020-01-16", 0.455], ["2020-01-16", 0.445], ["2020-01-16", 0.435], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3493/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | According to Vox's Kelsey Piper:
I observed above that the primaries are quite a tossup — there are still four candidates with a very reasonable shot at winning. But I still have this feeling they’ll be over quickly. There’s the four early caucuses and primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Then on... | true | 2020-02-26 | Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.62], ["2020-01-16", 0.762], ["2020-01-17", 0.677], ["2020-01-18", 0.647], ["2020-01-21", 0.641], ["2020-01-23", 0.63], ["2020-02-01", 0.63], ["2020-02-01", 0.62], ["2020-02-06", 0.62], ["2020-02-15", 0.602], ["2020-02-23", 0.602], ["2020-03-04", 0.591], ["2020-03-06", 0.59], ["2020-03-07", 0.592], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3495/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Whole Woman's Health v. Hellersted, is a United States Supreme Court case decided on June 27, 2016. The Court ruled 5–3 that Texas cannot place restrictions on the delivery of abortion services that create an undue burden for women seeking an abortion. The landmark case ensures states must show proof of an actual healt... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-23 | 2020-01-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-16", 0.25], ["2020-01-16", 0.25], ["2020-01-16", 0.263], ["2020-01-16", 0.28], ["2020-01-16", 0.28], ["2020-01-16", 0.322], ["2020-01-16", 0.317], ["2020-01-16", 0.365], ["2020-01-16", 0.365], ["2020-01-16", 0.376], ["2020-01-16", 0.379], ["2020-01-16", 0.379], ["2020-01-16", 0.37], ["2020-01-16", 0.343], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3496/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The Doomsday Clock is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such a as a number of "minutes" to midnight. Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. Since Janu... | true | 2020-01-23 | Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-04-04 | 2020-01-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-16", 0.72], ["2020-01-17", 0.473], ["2020-01-17", 0.412], ["2020-01-18", 0.412], ["2020-01-18", 0.441], ["2020-01-19", 0.441], ["2020-01-19", 0.461], ["2020-01-19", 0.482], ["2020-01-20", 0.486], ["2020-01-20", 0.549], ["2020-01-21", 0.549], ["2020-01-21", 0.546], ["2020-01-21", 0.559], ["2020-01-22", 0.566]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3499/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On the 13th of December 2019, Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the UK Labour party announced that he would be standing down from the position. Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips and Emily Thornberry are all standing to be the next leader. The results should be announced on the 4th of April 2020.
Quest... | true | 2020-04-03 | Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-07 | 2020-01-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-22", 0.15], ["2020-01-24", 0.09], ["2020-01-27", 0.108], ["2020-01-29", 0.096], ["2020-02-01", 0.094], ["2020-02-01", 0.109], ["2020-02-06", 0.105], ["2020-02-11", 0.103], ["2020-02-13", 0.112], ["2020-02-15", 0.101], ["2020-02-17", 0.101], ["2020-02-20", 0.101], ["2020-02-21", 0.096], ["2020-02-26", 0.096],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3501/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Since 1980 (10 presidential elections), this has happened three times (Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992, and Ross Perot in 1996). It didn't happen in 2016 with either Stein or Johnson. Will it happen in 2020?
"Third-party candidate" is defined as a candidate that was not nominated by either the US Democratic or US ... | true | 2020-10-01 | Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-09 | 2020-01-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-22", 0.6], ["2020-01-23", 0.682], ["2020-01-24", 0.702], ["2020-01-26", 0.709], ["2020-01-27", 0.709], ["2020-02-01", 0.706], ["2020-02-01", 0.706], ["2020-02-06", 0.712], ["2020-02-06", 0.712], ["2020-02-11", 0.703], ["2020-02-12", 0.703], ["2020-02-13", 0.695], ["2020-02-15", 0.695], ["2020-02-17", 0.666],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3503/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Currently the US Democratic party holds 232 seats and the Republican Party holds 197. However, all of the seats will be up for re-election in 2020. You need 218 to have a majority. Will the Democrats keep their majority?
This resolves positively if the Speaker of the House of Representatives elected at the start of the... | true | 2020-10-01 | Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-22 | 2020-01-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-21", 0.15], ["2020-01-24", 0.179], ["2020-01-26", 0.154], ["2020-01-30", 0.133], ["2020-02-01", 0.156], ["2020-02-06", 0.159], ["2020-02-08", 0.158], ["2020-02-11", 0.17], ["2020-02-13", 0.17], ["2020-02-15", 0.167], ["2020-02-17", 0.154], ["2020-02-20", 0.153], ["2020-02-23", 0.153], ["2020-02-25", 0.163], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3504/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In order to pass one's own agenda in US politics, it is very helpful to have both halves of Congress and the Presidency under your party's control. Will the US Democratic Party be able to do this in 2020?
This resolves yes if the US Democratic Party has (a) at least 218 Representatives, (b) at least 50 Senators, and (c... | true | 2020-10-01 | Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-15 | 2020-01-18 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-23", 0.91], ["2020-01-25", 0.657], ["2020-01-26", 0.63], ["2020-01-29", 0.618], ["2020-01-31", 0.614], ["2020-02-01", 0.617], ["2020-02-04", 0.574], ["2020-02-07", 0.585], ["2020-02-08", 0.561], ["2020-02-10", 0.561], ["2020-02-11", 0.548], ["2020-02-13", 0.532], ["2020-02-14", 0.532], ["2020-02-16", 0.512],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3513/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Donald Trump has previously claimed that the 2016 Presidential election against him was “rigged” (though he won anyway). Trump has also made claims of widespread voting fraud in the 2016 election. Will he repeat some of these claims in 2020 and use them to avoid conceding the election? (Assuming he doesn't win.)
This q... | true | 2020-11-01 | If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-01-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-22", 0.65], ["2020-01-23", 0.624], ["2020-01-26", 0.603], ["2020-01-29", 0.599], ["2020-01-30", 0.608], ["2020-02-03", 0.617], ["2020-02-10", 0.617], ["2020-02-11", 0.609], ["2020-02-14", 0.609], ["2020-02-18", 0.598], ["2020-02-20", 0.598], ["2020-02-23", 0.596], ["2020-02-24", 0.596], ["2020-03-02", 0.6], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3516/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Beyond Meat is a Los Angeles-based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products became available across the United States in 2012.
As of July 2019, Beyond Meat had a market value of US$11.7 billion, following a value of $3.8 billion on the day of its initial public offering, ... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2020-01-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-02", 0.2], ["2020-02-02", 0.33], ["2020-02-02", 0.215], ["2020-02-02", 0.28], ["2020-02-02", 0.36], ["2020-02-02", 0.36], ["2020-02-02", 0.348], ["2020-02-03", 0.307], ["2020-02-03", 0.327], ["2020-02-03", 0.327], ["2020-02-03", 0.359], ["2020-02-03", 0.351], ["2020-02-03", 0.355], ["2020-02-03", 0.355], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3578/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In 2019, Iran suffered a trio of failed rocket launches, culminating with an explosion on the launchpad in August. Recent imagery gathered by commercial satellites may indicate that Iran is preparing for another attempt from the Imam Khomeini Space Center in northern Iran.
In addition, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, the... | true | 2020-02-08 | Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-02 | 2020-01-31 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-04", 0.66], ["2020-02-04", 0.58], ["2020-02-04", 0.58], ["2020-02-04", 0.61], ["2020-02-04", 0.592], ["2020-02-04", 0.579], ["2020-02-04", 0.579], ["2020-02-05", 0.538], ["2020-02-05", 0.538], ["2020-02-05", 0.522], ["2020-02-05", 0.539], ["2020-02-06", 0.512], ["2020-02-07", 0.485], ["2020-02-07", 0.492], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3589/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Conventional rocket engines (i.e. with bell nozzles) achieve optimal performance at exactly one pressure. Aerospike engines, by contrast, exhibit higher efficiencies at a wide range of atmospheric conditions. This makes them ideal for Single-Stage-To-Orbit vehicles. In spite of this promise, no Aerospike engine has eve... | true | 2020-04-01 | Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-31 | 2020-02-03 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-08", 0.4], ["2020-02-08", 0.205], ["2020-02-08", 0.267], ["2020-02-09", 0.3], ["2020-02-09", 0.304], ["2020-02-09", 0.329], ["2020-02-10", 0.326], ["2020-02-11", 0.328], ["2020-02-11", 0.362], ["2020-02-11", 0.35], ["2020-02-12", 0.34], ["2020-02-12", 0.344], ["2020-02-13", 0.344], ["2020-02-13", 0.359], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3595/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | As of 2020-02-03, the outbreak of COVID-19 is widespread within China, and continuing to grow rapidly, particularly at the outbreak's epicenter, Hubei province. That said, Hubei is far from the most populous or most densely populated province in China, let alone the rest of the world. Another larger population could ov... | true | 2020-04-06 | Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-04 | 2020-02-07 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-10", 0.15], ["2020-02-10", 0.34], ["2020-02-10", 0.34], ["2020-02-10", 0.364], ["2020-02-11", 0.374], ["2020-02-11", 0.362], ["2020-02-11", 0.362], ["2020-02-11", 0.434], ["2020-02-11", 0.398], ["2020-02-12", 0.398], ["2020-02-12", 0.367], ["2020-02-12", 0.376], ["2020-02-12", 0.371], ["2020-02-12", 0.378], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3607/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Former Mayor of New York City and current Democratic candidate Michael Bloomberg (b. 1942) has mounted a campaign with no precedent in US history. For one thing, he has refused to accept contributions and is instead self-funding his campaign; since entering the race in December last year, he has outspent all the other ... | true | 2020-03-01 | Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-24 | 2020-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-11", 0.05], ["2020-02-13", 0.324], ["2020-02-15", 0.221], ["2020-02-15", 0.219], ["2020-02-17", 0.219], ["2020-02-18", 0.187], ["2020-02-20", 0.179], ["2020-02-22", 0.176], ["2020-02-23", 0.182], ["2020-03-02", 0.174], ["2020-03-08", 0.177], ["2020-03-10", 0.17], ["2020-03-11", 0.176], ["2020-03-12", 0.169],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3611/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Assume that a candidate other than Donald Trump wins the 2020 US Presidential election, meaning that either they recieve at least 270 votes in the electoral college, or that no candidate does and they win the election held in the House of Representatives for the Presidency. This question resolves positively if at least... | true | 2020-11-04 | If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-08 | 2020-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-17", 0.33], ["2020-02-20", 0.204], ["2020-02-22", 0.203], ["2020-02-24", 0.201], ["2020-02-28", 0.198], ["2020-03-01", 0.213], ["2020-03-04", 0.203], ["2020-03-09", 0.2], ["2020-03-12", 0.182], ["2020-03-16", 0.182], ["2020-03-17", 0.182], ["2020-03-21", 0.182], ["2020-03-23", 0.179], ["2020-03-25", 0.178], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3612/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | This question resolves positively if by January 1st 2030, a comment on this Metaculus question links to an archive of the Bloomberg Billionaire Index OR the Forbes real-time list of billionaires indicating that Elon Musk was the richest person in the world at some point of time during the 2020s. Otherwise, it resolves ... | true | 2021-01-08 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-04 | 2020-02-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-11", 0.54], ["2020-02-14", 0.68], ["2020-02-15", 0.654], ["2020-02-18", 0.658], ["2020-02-19", 0.658], ["2020-02-21", 0.66], ["2020-02-24", 0.672], ["2020-02-27", 0.669], ["2020-03-01", 0.667], ["2020-03-03", 0.673], ["2020-03-05", 0.649], ["2020-03-07", 0.624], ["2020-03-09", 0.581], ["2020-03-11", 0.55], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3630/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves positively if one of Donald Trump's tweets includes any of the following phrases (case insensitive):
"Communist Bernie Sanders"
"Communist Bernie"
"Communist Sanders"
"Commie Bernie Sanders"
"Commie' Bernie Sanders"
"Commie' Bernie"
"Bernie Sanders is communist"
"Bernie Sanders is a communist"
Ot... | true | 2020-11-03 | Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-11 | 2020-02-09 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-12", 0.45], ["2020-02-12", 0.49], ["2020-02-12", 0.553], ["2020-02-12", 0.553], ["2020-02-12", 0.628], ["2020-02-12", 0.602], ["2020-02-12", 0.633], ["2020-02-13", 0.599], ["2020-02-13", 0.599], ["2020-02-13", 0.578], ["2020-02-13", 0.58], ["2020-02-13", 0.58], ["2020-02-13", 0.58], ["2020-02-13", 0.58], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3632/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Every year on Groundhog's Day, Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his home on Gobbler's Knob and the Inner Circle reports whether Phil could see his shadow, indicating whether he predicts an early spring, or six more weeks of winter-like weather.
This year, Punxsutawney Phil predicted an early spring. Will he be right?
The... | true | 2020-02-28 | Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-23 | 2020-02-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-14", 0.75], ["2020-02-14", 0.417], ["2020-02-14", 0.412], ["2020-02-14", 0.229], ["2020-02-15", 0.196], ["2020-02-15", 0.193], ["2020-02-15", 0.186], ["2020-02-16", 0.182], ["2020-02-16", 0.17], ["2020-02-17", 0.202], ["2020-02-17", 0.202], ["2020-02-17", 0.192], ["2020-02-17", 0.185], ["2020-02-18", 0.184],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3650/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The CDC's level 3 Travel Health Notice advises against non-essential travel:
Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.
As of February 11th, 2020 the CDC issues le... | true | 2020-04-01 | Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-19 | 2020-02-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-13", 0.8], ["2020-02-14", 0.407], ["2020-02-16", 0.391], ["2020-02-17", 0.361], ["2020-02-18", 0.361], ["2020-02-19", 0.361], ["2020-02-20", 0.362], ["2020-02-21", 0.351], ["2020-02-22", 0.328], ["2020-02-23", 0.321], ["2020-02-24", 0.324], ["2020-02-26", 0.355], ["2020-02-26", 0.365], ["2020-02-27", 0.363],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3655/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Covid-19, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. The ... | true | 2020-05-31 | Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-03-28 | 2020-02-11 | ["https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3503221.3508417", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3182498/china-supercomputer-achieves-global-first-brain-scale-ai-model", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/#comment-39631", "https://cl... | binary | [["2020-02-22", 0.7], ["2020-03-01", 0.683], ["2020-03-07", 0.685], ["2020-03-14", 0.678], ["2020-03-20", 0.678], ["2020-03-26", 0.685], ["2020-03-31", 0.685], ["2020-04-05", 0.681], ["2020-04-23", 0.68], ["2020-05-16", 0.68], ["2020-05-29", 0.687], ["2020-06-02", 0.71], ["2020-06-09", 0.712], ["2020-06-18", 0.712], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3656/ | In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to 17 billion parameters in early 2020.
Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a mem... | Science & Tech | This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, ... | true | 2026-01-01 | Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-05 | 2020-02-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-16", 0.33], ["2020-02-16", 0.365], ["2020-02-16", 0.477], ["2020-02-16", 0.477], ["2020-02-16", 0.52], ["2020-02-16", 0.582], ["2020-02-16", 0.582], ["2020-02-17", 0.579], ["2020-02-17", 0.581], ["2020-02-17", 0.58], ["2020-02-17", 0.575], ["2020-02-17", 0.572], ["2020-02-18", 0.572], ["2020-02-18", 0.566], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3666/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Nate Silver and his fivethirtyeight site has achieved significant notoriety for developing a system to carefully aggregate election polls to create well-calibrated statistical forecasts of outcome elections; his site publishes daily updates to predictions for primary and general elections in House, Senate and President... | true | 2020-03-02 | Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-01 | 2020-02-15 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-18", 0.295], ["2020-02-19", 0.37], ["2020-02-20", 0.355], ["2020-02-20", 0.32], ["2020-02-22", 0.333], ["2020-02-22", 0.319], ["2020-02-23", 0.326], ["2020-02-23", 0.33], ["2020-02-24", 0.314], ["2020-02-25", 0.307], ["2020-02-26", 0.3], ["2020-02-28", 0.296], ["2020-02-28", 0.296], ["2020-02-29", 0.295], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3671/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | While having a lot of great qualities, prediction markets do have some drawbacks. For one, betting markets can be manipulated by anyone with enough resources if they do not mind losing some of them (in expectation). As a case in point, there is some evidence that in 2012 Romney's chances were artificially boosted, and ... | true | 2022-01-01 | Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-24 | 2020-02-18 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-20", 0.065], ["2020-02-21", 0.188], ["2020-02-21", 0.235], ["2020-02-21", 0.236], ["2020-02-22", 0.216], ["2020-02-22", 0.216], ["2020-02-22", 0.242], ["2020-02-23", 0.257], ["2020-02-23", 0.257], ["2020-02-23", 0.263], ["2020-02-24", 0.271], ["2020-02-24", 0.276], ["2020-02-24", 0.276], ["2020-02-25", 0.288... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3688/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | The 2020 summer Olympics are scheduled to take place in Tokyo, Japan from July 24 to August 9, 2020. Unfortunately Japan is one of the countries experiencing an outbreak of COVID-19. Furthermore if the outbreak worsens in other locations, the international crowds of the Olympics could be a threat by spreading the virus... | true | 2020-04-26 | Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-11 | 2020-02-18 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-07", 0.77], ["2020-03-07", 0.702], ["2020-03-08", 0.684], ["2020-03-09", 0.705], ["2020-03-10", 0.703], ["2020-03-10", 0.694], ["2020-03-11", 0.709], ["2020-03-12", 0.708], ["2020-03-13", 0.704], ["2020-03-14", 0.697], ["2020-03-16", 0.697], ["2020-03-16", 0.796], ["2020-03-17", 0.83], ["2020-03-18", 0.835],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3697/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Will the Democratic candidate for President of the USA in 2020 choose a female running mate?
The running mate, i.e. the candidate for Vice-President, is expected to be named by the Presidential candidate at the 2020 Democratic National Convention on July 13-16. | true | 2020-06-01 | Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-22 | 2020-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-21", 0.24], ["2020-02-22", 0.338], ["2020-02-22", 0.338], ["2020-02-22", 0.311], ["2020-02-23", 0.35], ["2020-02-23", 0.345], ["2020-02-23", 0.314], ["2020-02-23", 0.297], ["2020-02-24", 0.29], ["2020-02-24", 0.29], ["2020-02-24", 0.306], ["2020-02-24", 0.322], ["2020-02-25", 0.322], ["2020-02-25", 0.324], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3699/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak.
As of 19 February 2020, over 75,000 cases and over 2,000 deaths have... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-05-17 | 2020-02-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-24", 0.43], ["2020-02-25", 0.605], ["2020-02-26", 0.762], ["2020-02-27", 0.792], ["2020-02-28", 0.782], ["2020-02-28", 0.773], ["2020-02-29", 0.772], ["2020-03-01", 0.767], ["2020-03-02", 0.769], ["2020-03-03", 0.773], ["2020-03-03", 0.768], ["2020-03-04", 0.759], ["2020-03-05", 0.755], ["2020-03-06", 0.736]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3709/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 2020-02-19, the North Korean envoy to the UN claimed that North Korea has experienced no cases of COVID-19, the novel Coronavirus which appears to have emerged from Wuhan province in China late in 2019. The North Korean Government has, however, enacted a strict policy of quarantining persons entering the country fou... | true | 2020-05-15 | Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-17 | 2020-02-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-25", 0.2], ["2020-02-26", 0.377], ["2020-02-27", 0.293], ["2020-02-28", 0.25], ["2020-02-28", 0.237], ["2020-02-29", 0.237], ["2020-03-01", 0.231], ["2020-03-01", 0.227], ["2020-03-02", 0.223], ["2020-03-03", 0.223], ["2020-03-04", 0.202], ["2020-03-04", 0.203], ["2020-03-05", 0.202], ["2020-03-06", 0.202], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3710/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials. These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worke... | true | 2020-05-17 | Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-02-23 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-25", 0.33], ["2020-02-26", 0.514], ["2020-02-26", 0.486], ["2020-02-27", 0.493], ["2020-02-28", 0.5], ["2020-02-28", 0.503], ["2020-02-29", 0.498], ["2020-03-01", 0.443], ["2020-03-01", 0.439], ["2020-03-02", 0.444], ["2020-03-02", 0.444], ["2020-03-03", 0.453], ["2020-03-03", 0.454], ["2020-03-04", 0.466], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3724/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | For the purpose of this question, only Metaculus accounts created prior to this question's opening date count. Users must comment on this post to be counted. Such comments should include:
The date on which the user received a positive test result for COVID-19.
Some sort of evidence to back up their claims, such as a ph... | true | 2020-05-01 | Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-07 | 2020-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-27", 0.43], ["2020-02-27", 0.358], ["2020-02-27", 0.386], ["2020-02-27", 0.353], ["2020-02-27", 0.376], ["2020-02-28", 0.376], ["2020-02-28", 0.375], ["2020-02-29", 0.381], ["2020-02-29", 0.384], ["2020-02-29", 0.386], ["2020-02-29", 0.395], ["2020-02-29", 0.401], ["2020-03-01", 0.401], ["2020-03-02", 0.399]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3732/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question resolves unambiguously if Johns Hopkins or the CDC reports that the (cumulative) total COVID-19 cases exceeds 50,000 in the United States, on November 1st, 2020 at 10 AM GMT.
This question resolves positively if it resolves unambiguously and our existing question on Trump's reelection resolves positively.... | true | 2020-03-30 | If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-02 | 2020-02-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-28", 0.85], ["2020-03-01", 0.607], ["2020-03-03", 0.713], ["2020-03-06", 0.737], ["2020-03-07", 0.742], ["2020-03-09", 0.755], ["2020-03-11", 0.756], ["2020-03-12", 0.756], ["2020-03-14", 0.754], ["2020-03-16", 0.754], ["2020-03-17", 0.76], ["2020-03-19", 0.76], ["2020-03-22", 0.76], ["2020-03-23", 0.763], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3734/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Metaculus has generated a large number of questions about COVID-19, a concerning number of which resolve on a single data source: the JHU CSSE COVID-19 dashboard (and its underlying data). If it were to permanently break, cease being updated, or dramatically change format, it could put many of our COVID-19 questions in... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-06 | 2020-02-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-03", 0.2], ["2020-03-03", 0.314], ["2020-03-04", 0.354], ["2020-03-04", 0.342], ["2020-03-05", 0.346], ["2020-03-05", 0.363], ["2020-03-06", 0.391], ["2020-03-06", 0.4], ["2020-03-07", 0.403], ["2020-03-08", 0.411], ["2020-03-08", 0.409], ["2020-03-09", 0.409], ["2020-03-09", 0.41], ["2020-03-10", 0.403], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3737/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Novel coronavirus (COVID-19), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient w... | true | 2020-04-30 | Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-20 | 2020-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-01", 0.225], ["2020-03-01", 0.457], ["2020-03-01", 0.457], ["2020-03-01", 0.377], ["2020-03-01", 0.377], ["2020-03-01", 0.333], ["2020-03-01", 0.333], ["2020-03-02", 0.263], ["2020-03-02", 0.263], ["2020-03-02", 0.263], ["2020-03-02", 0.263], ["2020-03-02", 0.286], ["2020-03-03", 0.286], ["2020-03-03", 0.275... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3744/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | SARS-CoV-2, as denoted by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, also known as 2019-nCoV, Wuhan coronavirus, or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample... | true | 2020-03-17 | Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-31 | 2020-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-01", 0.31], ["2020-03-01", 0.56], ["2020-03-01", 0.528], ["2020-03-01", 0.482], ["2020-03-01", 0.482], ["2020-03-02", 0.506], ["2020-03-03", 0.499], ["2020-03-03", 0.512], ["2020-03-03", 0.512], ["2020-03-03", 0.5], ["2020-03-03", 0.5], ["2020-03-04", 0.498], ["2020-03-04", 0.489], ["2020-03-05", 0.489], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3748/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Airbnb, is an online marketplace for arranging or offering lodging, primarily homestays, or tourism experiences. There are over 6 million Airbnb listings in 191 countries worldwide. The home sharing platform reportedly has more listings than the largest hotel chains.
Earlier this month, Airbnb paused suspended bookings... | true | 2020-06-24 | Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-23 | 2020-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-01", 0.36], ["2020-03-01", 0.36], ["2020-03-01", 0.443], ["2020-03-01", 0.404], ["2020-03-02", 0.47], ["2020-03-02", 0.496], ["2020-03-03", 0.498], ["2020-03-03", 0.514], ["2020-03-03", 0.503], ["2020-03-03", 0.494], ["2020-03-04", 0.494], ["2020-03-04", 0.47], ["2020-03-05", 0.484], ["2020-03-05", 0.491], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3750/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Airbnb, is an online marketplace for arranging or offering lodging, primarily homestays, or tourism experiences. There are over 6 million Airbnb listings in 191 countries worldwide. The home sharing platform reportedly has more listings than the largest hotel chains.
Earlier this month, Airbnb paused suspended bookings... | true | 2020-06-24 | Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-12 | 2020-02-28 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-29", 0.3], ["2020-02-29", 0.442], ["2020-02-29", 0.446], ["2020-02-29", 0.446], ["2020-02-29", 0.472], ["2020-02-29", 0.483], ["2020-02-29", 0.483], ["2020-02-29", 0.513], ["2020-02-29", 0.505], ["2020-02-29", 0.532], ["2020-02-29", 0.54], ["2020-02-29", 0.567], ["2020-02-29", 0.573], ["2020-02-29", 0.592], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3752/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The CDC's level 3 Travel Health Notice advises against non-essential travel:
Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.
As of February 11th, 2020 the CDC issues le... | true | 2020-03-12 | Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-18 | 2020-02-28 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-29", 0.45], ["2020-02-29", 0.345], ["2020-02-29", 0.396], ["2020-02-29", 0.413], ["2020-02-29", 0.385], ["2020-02-29", 0.385], ["2020-03-01", 0.377], ["2020-03-01", 0.371], ["2020-03-01", 0.354], ["2020-03-01", 0.357], ["2020-03-01", 0.353], ["2020-03-01", 0.359], ["2020-03-01", 0.356], ["2020-03-02", 0.356]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3753/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The Eurovision Song Contest 2020 will be the 65th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. The contest will take place in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Its three events take place at the following dates:
Semi-final 1 12 May
Semi-final 2 14 May
Final 16 May
Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?
Th... | true | 2020-05-09 | Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-05 | 2020-02-28 | [] | binary | [["2020-02-29", 0.7], ["2020-02-29", 0.481], ["2020-02-29", 0.467], ["2020-02-29", 0.518], ["2020-02-29", 0.552], ["2020-02-29", 0.568], ["2020-02-29", 0.59], ["2020-02-29", 0.583], ["2020-02-29", 0.583], ["2020-02-29", 0.542], ["2020-02-29", 0.55], ["2020-02-29", 0.552], ["2020-02-29", 0.557], ["2020-02-29", 0.561], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3756/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global San Francisco 2020 is scheduled to be held in San Francisco, USA from to 20th 22nd of March 2020.
Will EA Global: San Francisco 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COV... | true | 2020-03-05 | Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-05-11 | 2020-02-29 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-06", 0.19], ["2020-03-07", 0.19], ["2020-03-07", 0.113], ["2020-03-07", 0.298], ["2020-03-08", 0.31], ["2020-03-08", 0.299], ["2020-03-08", 0.299], ["2020-03-09", 0.283], ["2020-03-09", 0.265], ["2020-03-11", 0.252], ["2020-03-11", 0.264], ["2020-03-12", 0.275], ["2020-03-12", 0.263], ["2020-03-13", 0.274], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3762/ | Current machine learning techniques are data-hungry and brittle—they can only make sense of patterns they've seen before. Using current methods, an algorithm can gain new skills by exposure to large amounts of data, but cognitive abilities that could broadly generalize to many tasks remain elusive. This makes it very c... | Science & Tech | This question asks whether the 1st place winner will pass 0.8 or less top-3 error rate as defined in the Kaggle competition evaluation? The question will resolve positive if the threshold is passed, negative otherwise. To achieve this threshold, an AI will need to answer correctly after 3 tries in only 20% of tasks. Th... | true | 2020-05-17 | Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-04 | 2020-03-03 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-03", 0.66], ["2020-03-03", 0.66], ["2020-03-03", 0.667], ["2020-03-03", 0.625], ["2020-03-03", 0.68], ["2020-03-03", 0.68], ["2020-03-03", 0.622], ["2020-03-03", 0.628], ["2020-03-03", 0.597], ["2020-03-03", 0.557], ["2020-03-03", 0.557], ["2020-03-03", 0.546], ["2020-03-03", 0.546], ["2020-03-03", 0.562], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3776/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Michael Bloomberg is the majority owner and co-founder of Bloomberg L.P., was the mayor of New York City from 2002 to 2013, and is currently a candidate in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries.
Will Michael Bloomberg have dropped out of the Presidential race March the 13th, 11:59PM EST?
This resolves positive if ... | true | 2020-03-11 | [Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-08 | 2020-03-03 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-07", 0.99], ["2020-03-09", 0.906], ["2020-03-10", 0.907], ["2020-03-12", 0.9], ["2020-03-13", 0.893], ["2020-03-14", 0.862], ["2020-03-15", 0.859], ["2020-03-17", 0.857], ["2020-03-19", 0.856], ["2020-03-21", 0.854], ["2020-03-22", 0.853], ["2020-03-24", 0.854], ["2020-03-26", 0.854], ["2020-03-28", 0.853], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3779/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that typically cause mild respiratory disease in humans. A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019.
Early estimation of the fatality rate put it around 2% (wikipedia), but this hides very high age-heterogeneity, the Chinese CDC estimating it... | true | 2020-09-01 | Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-16 | 2020-03-04 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-06", 0.79], ["2020-03-06", 0.671], ["2020-03-06", 0.72], ["2020-03-06", 0.725], ["2020-03-06", 0.734], ["2020-03-06", 0.731], ["2020-03-06", 0.731], ["2020-03-06", 0.778], ["2020-03-06", 0.789], ["2020-03-06", 0.806], ["2020-03-06", 0.817], ["2020-03-06", 0.815], ["2020-03-07", 0.815], ["2020-03-07", 0.813],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3782/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.
A number of nation-states, including Japan and Italy, have closed their schools in an attemp... | true | 2020-03-15 | Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-13 | 2020-03-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-09", 0.25], ["2020-03-11", 0.428], ["2020-03-12", 0.439], ["2020-03-14", 0.431], ["2020-03-15", 0.462], ["2020-03-16", 0.446], ["2020-03-18", 0.425], ["2020-03-19", 0.409], ["2020-03-21", 0.408], ["2020-03-22", 0.391], ["2020-03-23", 0.373], ["2020-03-25", 0.388], ["2020-03-26", 0.385], ["2020-03-28", 0.388]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3790/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Dominic Cummings's appointment as Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has been the subject of significant media scrutiny, and many of the controversies surrounding Johnson's premiership so far have been strongly linked to Cummings in the media. Two recent examples are:
The appointment ... | true | 2020-11-13 | Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-05 | 2020-03-05 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-09", 0.84], ["2020-03-10", 0.892], ["2020-03-11", 0.878], ["2020-03-11", 0.88], ["2020-03-13", 0.877], ["2020-03-14", 0.873], ["2020-03-14", 0.87], ["2020-03-16", 0.868], ["2020-03-17", 0.868], ["2020-03-18", 0.865], ["2020-03-19", 0.866], ["2020-03-20", 0.857], ["2020-03-21", 0.857], ["2020-03-22", 0.856], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3791/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Every 4 years, the United States elects a new president. These elections are traditionally held on the first Tuesday after November 1st. Typically, somewhere roughly between 50% and 60% of the voting population turns out to cast a ballot.
An election is scheduled to be held on the 3rd of November. However, the COVID-19... | true | 2020-08-01 | Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-18 | 2020-03-10 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-11", 0.4], ["2020-03-12", 0.475], ["2020-03-12", 0.63], ["2020-03-12", 0.658], ["2020-03-12", 0.658], ["2020-03-12", 0.682], ["2020-03-12", 0.706], ["2020-03-12", 0.706], ["2020-03-12", 0.718], ["2020-03-12", 0.742], ["2020-03-12", 0.753], ["2020-03-12", 0.738], ["2020-03-13", 0.739], ["2020-03-13", 0.735], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3825/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The University of Cambridge is a collegiate public research university in Cambridge, United Kingdom.
In the U.S., some universities have asked its students not to returns to return to campus after Spring Break and said it would begin moving to virtual instruction for graduate and undergraduate classes amid the coronavi... | true | 2020-04-26 | Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-04-17 | 2020-03-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-16", 0.9], ["2020-03-16", 0.745], ["2020-03-16", 0.747], ["2020-03-16", 0.591], ["2020-03-16", 0.497], ["2020-03-17", 0.472], ["2020-03-17", 0.472], ["2020-03-17", 0.46], ["2020-03-18", 0.463], ["2020-03-18", 0.456], ["2020-03-18", 0.452], ["2020-03-18", 0.472], ["2020-03-19", 0.484], ["2020-03-19", 0.485], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3855/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic.
As of 13 March 2020, over 137,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths have b... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-03-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-01", 0.33], ["2020-04-03", 0.298], ["2020-04-05", 0.325], ["2020-04-06", 0.324], ["2020-04-08", 0.319], ["2020-04-10", 0.319], ["2020-04-12", 0.317], ["2020-04-14", 0.306], ["2020-04-16", 0.302], ["2020-04-19", 0.288], ["2020-04-22", 0.28], ["2020-04-23", 0.279], ["2020-04-25", 0.275], ["2020-04-27", 0.269],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3856/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic.
As of 13 March 2020, over 137,000 cases and over 5,000 deaths have b... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-10-02 | 2020-03-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-14", 0.34], ["2020-03-14", 0.586], ["2020-03-14", 0.613], ["2020-03-14", 0.63], ["2020-03-14", 0.612], ["2020-03-15", 0.582], ["2020-03-15", 0.581], ["2020-03-15", 0.568], ["2020-03-15", 0.548], ["2020-03-15", 0.542], ["2020-03-15", 0.539], ["2020-03-15", 0.547], ["2020-03-15", 0.526], ["2020-03-15", 0.525],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3859/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | According to CNN:
A source close to Donald Trump said the President is telling people close to him that he is indeed concerned about coming into contact with people who have contracted the coronavirus, including the Brazilian official who tested positive after coming face-to-face with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Will it be re... | true | 2020-03-25 | Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-12-31 | 2020-03-14 | ["https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gesetz_zum_Schutz_der_Bev\u00f6lkerung_bei_einer_epidemischen_Lage_von_nationaler_Tragweite)", "https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notstandsgesetze_(Deutschland)", "https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infektionsschutzgesetz", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11944/countries-invoking-nato-ar... | binary | [["2020-03-24", 0.66], ["2020-03-24", 0.419], ["2020-03-25", 0.422], ["2020-03-25", 0.456], ["2020-03-25", 0.456], ["2020-03-26", 0.446], ["2020-03-26", 0.446], ["2020-03-27", 0.446], ["2020-03-28", 0.447], ["2020-03-28", 0.456], ["2020-03-28", 0.451], ["2020-03-29", 0.451], ["2020-03-30", 0.454], ["2020-03-30", 0.452]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3863/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the German Emergency Act, changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federa... | true | 2020-06-15 | Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-03-15 | 2020-03-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-22", 0.24], ["2020-03-24", 0.309], ["2020-03-26", 0.302], ["2020-03-28", 0.306], ["2020-03-29", 0.316], ["2020-03-31", 0.307], ["2020-04-02", 0.304], ["2020-04-03", 0.296], ["2020-04-05", 0.299], ["2020-04-07", 0.299], ["2020-04-09", 0.295], ["2020-04-10", 0.295], ["2020-04-12", 0.295], ["2020-04-14", 0.29],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3875/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve positive if at least 9 of the 12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 (as reported by the CDC) are among the states that voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
For purposes of this question, 30 states out of 50 are considered to have voted for Trump in the 2016 ... | true | 2020-11-15 | Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-10 | 2020-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-26", 0.33], ["2020-03-26", 0.29], ["2020-03-26", 0.29], ["2020-03-27", 0.188], ["2020-03-27", 0.188], ["2020-03-27", 0.268], ["2020-03-28", 0.311], ["2020-03-28", 0.311], ["2020-03-28", 0.279], ["2020-03-28", 0.279], ["2020-03-28", 0.271], ["2020-03-28", 0.266], ["2020-03-29", 0.269], ["2020-03-29", 0.269], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3894/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The United States is currently in a situation where residents of several states are being requested by authorities to shelter in place. At some point, the request may become an edict. People may disregard this command, and civil unrest may ensue.
The National Guard is already involved and the words "martial law" have s... | true | 2020-10-31 | Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-02 | 2020-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-24", 0.71], ["2020-03-26", 0.576], ["2020-03-27", 0.458], ["2020-03-28", 0.45], ["2020-03-29", 0.423], ["2020-03-31", 0.426], ["2020-04-01", 0.428], ["2020-04-02", 0.426], ["2020-04-03", 0.459], ["2020-04-04", 0.459], ["2020-04-05", 0.493], ["2020-04-06", 0.579], ["2020-04-07", 0.613], ["2020-04-08", 0.625],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3895/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Remdesivir is an investigational nucleotide analog with broad-spectrum antiviral activity. It is not approved anywhere globally for any use.
According to its producer, Gilead Sciences:
Remdesivir has demonstrated in vitro and in vivo activity in animal models against the viral pathogens MERS and SARS, which are also co... | true | 2020-08-31 | Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-09-11 | 2020-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-30", 0.33], ["2020-03-31", 0.636], ["2020-04-01", 0.644], ["2020-04-01", 0.693], ["2020-04-03", 0.719], ["2020-04-04", 0.715], ["2020-04-05", 0.701], ["2020-04-06", 0.678], ["2020-04-07", 0.695], ["2020-04-08", 0.695], ["2020-04-09", 0.696], ["2020-04-11", 0.696], ["2020-04-12", 0.698], ["2020-04-14", 0.681]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3896/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.
A number of European nations, including Spain, France, Italy, and the UK, have announced tha... | true | 2020-08-06 | Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-28 | 2020-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-25", 0.35], ["2020-03-25", 0.382], ["2020-03-26", 0.251], ["2020-03-26", 0.221], ["2020-03-27", 0.223], ["2020-03-28", 0.224], ["2020-03-28", 0.236], ["2020-03-29", 0.242], ["2020-03-30", 0.252], ["2020-03-31", 0.252], ["2020-04-01", 0.246], ["2020-04-02", 0.249], ["2020-04-03", 0.236], ["2020-04-04", 0.229]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3897/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong before 21 June 2020?
Positive resolution will be by either:
The Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened.
A UN Security Council permanent member governmen... | true | 2020-06-20 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-03-22 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-31", 0.2], ["2020-04-02", 0.158], ["2020-04-03", 0.191], ["2020-04-04", 0.194], ["2020-04-05", 0.186], ["2020-04-07", 0.186], ["2020-04-08", 0.185], ["2020-04-10", 0.183], ["2020-04-12", 0.186], ["2020-04-14", 0.179], ["2020-04-15", 0.177], ["2020-04-16", 0.182], ["2020-04-17", 0.179], ["2020-04-19", 0.183],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3900/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested... | true | 2020-08-30 | Will the US see a massive riot in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-21 | 2020-03-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-29", 0.43], ["2020-04-01", 0.624], ["2020-04-02", 0.623], ["2020-04-05", 0.641], ["2020-04-10", 0.641], ["2020-04-12", 0.659], ["2020-04-14", 0.663], ["2020-04-16", 0.666], ["2020-04-18", 0.667], ["2020-04-20", 0.673], ["2020-04-25", 0.673], ["2020-04-27", 0.674], ["2020-04-29", 0.674], ["2020-05-02", 0.678]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3912/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause "suicides by the thousands." Let's see if he's right!
CDC's Wonder database gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a simple linear regression to see that the number of suic... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-04-26 | 2020-03-25 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-29", 0.475], ["2020-03-29", 0.424], ["2020-03-29", 0.434], ["2020-03-29", 0.411], ["2020-03-30", 0.407], ["2020-03-30", 0.382], ["2020-03-30", 0.382], ["2020-03-30", 0.325], ["2020-03-31", 0.325], ["2020-03-31", 0.309], ["2020-03-31", 0.306], ["2020-03-31", 0.312], ["2020-03-31", 0.308], ["2020-03-31", 0.309... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3918/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On Sunday, March 22, 2020, Senators Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.; James Lankford, R-Okla.; and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., introduced the Emergency Telework Act (S. 3561).
In its proposed form, the bill
grants all federal workers with telework agreements the ability to work remotely full time during the coronavirus outbreak
ev... | true | 2020-04-20 | Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-04-20 | 2020-03-25 | ["https://www.thebalance.com/government-shutdow\u2026", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furlough"] | binary | [["2020-03-28", 0.25], ["2020-03-29", 0.267], ["2020-03-29", 0.289], ["2020-03-29", 0.315], ["2020-03-29", 0.35], ["2020-03-29", 0.378], ["2020-03-29", 0.382], ["2020-03-29", 0.39], ["2020-03-29", 0.385], ["2020-03-29", 0.386], ["2020-03-29", 0.404], ["2020-03-30", 0.401], ["2020-03-30", 0.401], ["2020-03-30", 0.401], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3921/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | A US federal government shutdown closes non-essential federal programs. It has historically occurred when the normal budget process broke down and Congress failed to appropriate funds or the president did not sign the appropriations bills.
In past shutdowns, “essential” services such as the armed forces, border protect... | true | 2020-04-11 | Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-15 | 2020-03-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-03-28", 0.75], ["2020-03-30", 0.653], ["2020-04-01", 0.649], ["2020-04-02", 0.604], ["2020-04-04", 0.591], ["2020-04-05", 0.592], ["2020-04-06", 0.592], ["2020-04-08", 0.593], ["2020-04-09", 0.59], ["2020-04-10", 0.592], ["2020-04-11", 0.589], ["2020-04-12", 0.592], ["2020-04-14", 0.592], ["2020-04-15", 0.594],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3932/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | Harvard has indefinitely suspended classes, as of March 23.
The fall semester would be normally scheduled to begin on Wednesday, September 2, 2020.
Will Harvard University open a majority of in-person classes on September 2, 2020?
This question resolves positively if most of the classes for courses at Harvard College t... | true | 2020-09-02 | Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-16 | 2020-03-31 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-03", 0.15], ["2020-04-03", 0.165], ["2020-04-03", 0.327], ["2020-04-03", 0.295], ["2020-04-03", 0.382], ["2020-04-03", 0.387], ["2020-04-03", 0.397], ["2020-04-03", 0.397], ["2020-04-03", 0.38], ["2020-04-04", 0.402], ["2020-04-04", 0.414], ["2020-04-04", 0.389], ["2020-04-04", 0.379], ["2020-04-04", 0.379],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3991/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The number of people in the US under lockdown has continued to increase throughout March and as a result internet traffic has surged. Facebook CEO, Mark Zuckerburg, commented on the recent surge by saying, "We’re just trying to keep the lights on over here."
This question asks: Will any of the top 10 most popular US in... | true | 2020-04-21 | Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-18 | 2020-04-03 | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/its-official-the-covid-recession-lasted-just-two-months-the-shortest-in-us-history.html", "https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-warns-us-economy-could-reach-levels-great-depression-1727347"] | binary | [["2020-04-07", 0.73], ["2020-04-14", 0.739], ["2020-04-19", 0.709], ["2020-04-25", 0.699], ["2020-05-03", 0.69], ["2020-05-10", 0.692], ["2020-05-15", 0.69], ["2020-05-20", 0.681], ["2020-05-26", 0.683], ["2020-06-01", 0.681], ["2020-06-08", 0.651], ["2020-06-14", 0.646], ["2020-06-19", 0.645], ["2020-06-24", 0.635], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4013/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and unemployment has skyrocketed. It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of thi... | true | 2027-01-01 | Will the next US recession turn into a depression? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-30 | 2020-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-09", 0.2], ["2020-04-11", 0.325], ["2020-04-11", 0.286], ["2020-04-12", 0.234], ["2020-04-13", 0.212], ["2020-04-15", 0.199], ["2020-04-16", 0.18], ["2020-04-17", 0.164], ["2020-04-18", 0.187], ["2020-04-21", 0.17], ["2020-04-23", 0.162], ["2020-04-24", 0.145], ["2020-04-25", 0.145], ["2020-04-26", 0.134], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4035/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a disease outbreak causing many locales to issue lockdowns. These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an increase in the unemployment rate, as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
On the 18th of March 2020, economist... | true | 2021-09-01 | Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-04-25 | 2020-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-07", 0.6], ["2020-04-07", 0.636], ["2020-04-07", 0.631], ["2020-04-07", 0.641], ["2020-04-07", 0.637], ["2020-04-07", 0.64], ["2020-04-07", 0.64], ["2020-04-07", 0.659], ["2020-04-07", 0.687], ["2020-04-07", 0.698], ["2020-04-07", 0.728], ["2020-04-07", 0.747], ["2020-04-07", 0.746], ["2020-04-07", 0.757], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4040/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hospitalised for COVID-19. On Monday 2020-04-06, Johnson was placed in intensive care.
This question resolves positively if an official statement is released by Downing Street stating that Johnson has recovered from COVID-19 or he is still alive on 2020-06-06.
It resolves negativel... | true | 2020-04-12 | Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-22 | 2020-04-08 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-11", 0.77], ["2020-04-13", 0.438], ["2020-04-14", 0.501], ["2020-04-15", 0.522], ["2020-04-16", 0.528], ["2020-04-17", 0.498], ["2020-04-19", 0.494], ["2020-04-19", 0.475], ["2020-04-22", 0.495], ["2020-04-25", 0.486], ["2020-04-27", 0.486], ["2020-04-27", 0.479], ["2020-04-29", 0.464], ["2020-05-01", 0.433]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4075/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019... | true | 2020-12-08 | Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-07-01 | 2020-04-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-16", 0.28], ["2020-04-16", 0.385], ["2020-04-16", 0.303], ["2020-04-17", 0.235], ["2020-04-17", 0.235], ["2020-04-18", 0.285], ["2020-04-20", 0.266], ["2020-04-20", 0.266], ["2020-04-20", 0.255], ["2020-04-20", 0.262], ["2020-04-21", 0.261], ["2020-04-21", 0.266], ["2020-04-21", 0.267], ["2020-04-22", 0.258]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4097/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | China Oceanwide, an investment company, originally agreed in October 2016 to buy Genworth Financial, an insurance company. Recently GNW and China Oceanwide agreed to a 14th extension to the proposed merger deadline, to no later than June 30, 2020 [1].
The resolution to this question does not depend on the closing price... | true | 2020-07-01 | Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-01 | 2020-04-11 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-15", 0.33], ["2020-04-16", 0.41], ["2020-04-16", 0.41], ["2020-04-16", 0.281], ["2020-04-17", 0.3], ["2020-04-17", 0.336], ["2020-04-18", 0.337], ["2020-04-18", 0.337], ["2020-04-19", 0.336], ["2020-04-20", 0.319], ["2020-04-20", 0.319], ["2020-04-21", 0.352], ["2020-04-21", 0.352], ["2020-04-21", 0.347], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4098/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | On 12/17/2019, LogMeIn, Inc. (LOGM) announced that it entered into an agreement to be acquired by Francisco Partners, a leading technology-focused global private equity firm, and including Evergreen Coast Capital Corporation, the private equity affiliate of Elliott Management Corporation, for $86.05 per share in cash.
... | true | 2020-06-01 | Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2020-04-13 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-28", 0.2], ["2020-05-31", 0.152], ["2020-06-04", 0.129], ["2020-06-07", 0.125], ["2020-06-11", 0.119], ["2020-06-16", 0.119], ["2020-06-17", 0.122], ["2020-06-26", 0.122], ["2020-06-29", 0.105], ["2020-07-04", 0.109], ["2020-07-18", 0.107], ["2020-07-24", 0.105], ["2020-07-31", 0.104], ["2020-08-05", 0.102],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4121/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | There is lately some discussion that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?
This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:
Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency ... | true | 2022-02-15 | Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-06 | 2020-04-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-20", 0.33], ["2020-04-20", 0.33], ["2020-04-20", 0.383], ["2020-04-20", 0.35], ["2020-04-20", 0.35], ["2020-04-20", 0.333], ["2020-04-20", 0.343], ["2020-04-20", 0.343], ["2020-04-21", 0.367], ["2020-04-21", 0.364], ["2020-04-21", 0.364], ["2020-04-21", 0.382], ["2020-04-21", 0.378], ["2020-04-22", 0.378], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4206/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Art Basel (in Basel Switzerland) was scheduled to take place from June 18 - June 21 2020, because of covid-19 it was postponed, and now is scheduled for September 17 to September 20 2020.
Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020
This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that ... | true | 2020-07-01 | Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020 | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-25 | 2020-04-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-09", 0.425], ["2020-05-10", 0.474], ["2020-05-11", 0.517], ["2020-05-13", 0.5], ["2020-05-14", 0.516], ["2020-05-16", 0.523], ["2020-05-19", 0.57], ["2020-05-20", 0.571], ["2020-05-22", 0.616], ["2020-05-25", 0.623], ["2020-05-26", 0.616], ["2020-05-29", 0.606], ["2020-05-31", 0.598], ["2020-06-01", 0.62], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4207/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), formerly known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease, is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus closely related to the SARS virus. The disease is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic.
As of 17 April 2020, over 2.1 million cases and over 147,000 deaths ... | true | 2020-11-30 | Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-07 | 2020-04-19 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-22", 0.8], ["2020-04-22", 0.2], ["2020-04-22", 0.2], ["2020-04-23", 0.132], ["2020-04-24", 0.132], ["2020-04-25", 0.094], ["2020-04-25", 0.142], ["2020-04-26", 0.14], ["2020-04-26", 0.124], ["2020-04-27", 0.124], ["2020-04-28", 0.124], ["2020-04-28", 0.114], ["2020-04-28", 0.112], ["2020-04-28", 0.103], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4220/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Wayne Hsuing is the co-founder of Direct Action Everywhere, an animal rights group, and is an assistant law professor. He has controversially been involved in animal rights activism, including events where participants have entered farms without the owner's consent in order to rescue animals.
On April 3rd, he announced... | true | 2020-11-03 | Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-10 | 2020-04-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.6], ["2020-04-27", 0.35], ["2020-04-27", 0.34], ["2020-04-27", 0.293], ["2020-04-27", 0.293], ["2020-04-27", 0.28], ["2020-04-27", 0.288], ["2020-04-27", 0.292], ["2020-04-27", 0.292], ["2020-04-27", 0.234], ["2020-04-27", 0.223], ["2020-04-27", 0.237], ["2020-04-27", 0.237], ["2020-04-27", 0.216], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4253/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for eit... | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-14 | 2020-04-24 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-26", 0.66], ["2020-04-26", 0.369], ["2020-04-26", 0.321], ["2020-04-26", 0.299], ["2020-04-26", 0.3], ["2020-04-26", 0.295], ["2020-04-26", 0.285], ["2020-04-26", 0.28], ["2020-04-26", 0.272], ["2020-04-27", 0.253], ["2020-04-27", 0.235], ["2020-04-27", 0.229], ["2020-04-27", 0.228], ["2020-04-27", 0.222], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4260/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kim Jong-un has been the Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012.
On 20 April 2020, CNN reported that US agencies were monitoring intelligence that Kim was in "grave danger" after having surgery, and that he had not been seen in public for ten days at the time of ... | true | 2020-05-09 | Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-05-18 | 2020-04-26 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-26", 0.57], ["2020-04-27", 0.555], ["2020-04-27", 0.48], ["2020-04-27", 0.48], ["2020-04-27", 0.48], ["2020-04-27", 0.48], ["2020-04-27", 0.472], ["2020-04-27", 0.477], ["2020-04-27", 0.475], ["2020-04-27", 0.503], ["2020-04-27", 0.503], ["2020-04-27", 0.575], ["2020-04-27", 0.575], ["2020-04-27", 0.561], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4272/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Metaculus is participating in COVID-19 Expert Surveys, in collaboration with researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Each week we will be launching up to 8 questions in which the community will have 30 hours to lock in their predictions.
Researchers will concurrently distribute the same questions to som... | true | 2020-05-04 | Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-05-24 | 2020-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.31], ["2020-04-27", 0.31], ["2020-04-27", 0.39], ["2020-04-27", 0.39], ["2020-04-27", 0.31], ["2020-04-27", 0.455], ["2020-04-27", 0.31], ["2020-04-27", 0.328], ["2020-04-27", 0.328], ["2020-04-27", 0.397], ["2020-04-27", 0.397], ["2020-04-27", 0.37], ["2020-04-27", 0.325], ["2020-04-27", 0.325], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4277/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for eit... | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-07 | 2020-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.37], ["2020-04-27", 0.33], ["2020-04-27", 0.35], ["2020-04-27", 0.35], ["2020-04-27", 0.283], ["2020-04-27", 0.22], ["2020-04-27", 0.266], ["2020-04-27", 0.266], ["2020-04-27", 0.28], ["2020-04-27", 0.29], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.285], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4279/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for eit... | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-21 | 2020-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.18], ["2020-04-27", 0.18], ["2020-04-27", 0.12], ["2020-04-27", 0.163], ["2020-04-27", 0.125], ["2020-04-27", 0.234], ["2020-04-27", 0.212], ["2020-04-27", 0.212], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.244], ["2020-04-27", 0.223], ["2020-04-27", 0.202], ["2020-04-27", 0.2], ["2020-04-27", 0.2], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4280/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 for eit... | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-21 | 2020-04-27 | [] | binary | [["2020-04-27", 0.2], ["2020-04-27", 0.2], ["2020-04-27", 0.137], ["2020-04-27", 0.153], ["2020-04-27", 0.272], ["2020-04-27", 0.293], ["2020-04-27", 0.293], ["2020-04-27", 0.285], ["2020-04-27", 0.266], ["2020-04-27", 0.278], ["2020-04-27", 0.357], ["2020-04-27", 0.346], ["2020-04-27", 0.38], ["2020-04-27", 0.38], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4281/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1710, 6389, 12027, 13708, and 13788 new deaths reported each week in the US.
Will total newly reported deaths first fall below 5,000 in any ... | true | 2020-04-28 | LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-04-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-01", 0.58], ["2020-05-01", 0.45], ["2020-05-01", 0.392], ["2020-05-01", 0.335], ["2020-05-01", 0.332], ["2020-05-01", 0.313], ["2020-05-01", 0.299], ["2020-05-01", 0.253], ["2020-05-01", 0.278], ["2020-05-01", 0.278], ["2020-05-01", 0.259], ["2020-05-01", 0.26], ["2020-05-01", 0.263], ["2020-05-01", 0.257], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4313/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | California is well-know to be very geologically active, and has in the past experienced major earthquakes: 15 recorded since the mid-19th century above magnitude 7.0. Even a 6.0 earthquake can cause significant damage, and there are 47 listed in the same source.
The USGS maintains a comprehensive searchable data store ... | true | 2020-07-31 | Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-07-08 | 2020-05-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-06", 0.75], ["2020-05-06", 0.75], ["2020-05-06", 0.517], ["2020-05-06", 0.538], ["2020-05-06", 0.56], ["2020-05-06", 0.567], ["2020-05-06", 0.567], ["2020-05-06", 0.528], ["2020-05-06", 0.558], ["2020-05-06", 0.558], ["2020-05-07", 0.577], ["2020-05-07", 0.59], ["2020-05-07", 0.593], ["2020-05-07", 0.596], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4318/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2020 is scheduled to be held in London, UK from to 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020.
Will EA Global: London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?
The ... | true | 2020-09-01 | Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-03 | 2020-05-06 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-09", 0.8], ["2020-05-10", 0.882], ["2020-05-11", 0.875], ["2020-05-13", 0.868], ["2020-05-14", 0.873], ["2020-05-15", 0.883], ["2020-05-16", 0.886], ["2020-05-17", 0.885], ["2020-05-17", 0.89], ["2020-05-18", 0.891], ["2020-05-19", 0.891], ["2020-05-20", 0.894], ["2020-05-20", 0.895], ["2020-05-21", 0.897], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4354/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (born November 20, 1942) is an American politician who served as the 47th vice president of the United States from 2009 to 2017 and represented Delaware in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee for president in the 202... | true | 2020-09-19 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-07-01 | 2020-05-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-21", 0.01], ["2020-05-22", 0.21], ["2020-05-22", 0.076], ["2020-05-22", 0.076], ["2020-05-22", 0.093], ["2020-05-23", 0.087], ["2020-05-23", 0.087], ["2020-05-23", 0.082], ["2020-05-23", 0.077], ["2020-05-23", 0.077], ["2020-05-23", 0.075], ["2020-05-24", 0.08], ["2020-05-24", 0.078], ["2020-05-24", 0.075], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4403/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?
The announcement must be public as defined by a published press release by AMZN in the AMZN public Press Center site
Any offer price, or offer consideration (cash, stock, or blend) is consistent with positive resolution | true | 2020-07-01 | Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-22 | 2020-05-14 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-14", 0.84], ["2020-06-14", 0.76], ["2020-06-14", 0.76], ["2020-06-14", 0.717], ["2020-06-14", 0.717], ["2020-06-14", 0.628], ["2020-06-14", 0.628], ["2020-06-15", 0.639], ["2020-06-15", 0.62], ["2020-06-15", 0.62], ["2020-06-15", 0.631], ["2020-06-15", 0.641], ["2020-06-15", 0.641], ["2020-06-15", 0.642], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4408/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Arm is a global semiconductor and software design company, that designs microprocessors, graphics processing units and neural processing units.
Apple is rumored to release an ARM-based Mac soon:
Apple is said to be aiming to transition to its own ARM-based chips starting in 2020. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes App... | true | 2020-06-20 | Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-17 | 2020-05-15 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-19", 0.26], ["2020-05-19", 0.405], ["2020-05-20", 0.37], ["2020-05-20", 0.346], ["2020-05-20", 0.405], ["2020-05-20", 0.384], ["2020-05-20", 0.384], ["2020-05-20", 0.343], ["2020-05-20", 0.32], ["2020-05-21", 0.32], ["2020-05-21", 0.321], ["2020-05-21", 0.3], ["2020-05-21", 0.3], ["2020-05-21", 0.3], ["2020-... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4414/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Elon Musk and his partner Grimes have revealed a rather interesting name for their baby. I believe they are joking and aren't actually planning to name their baby X Æ A - 12.
The questions will resolve true, if by 2021-05-17, there is no evidence the baby has another legal name than X Æ A - 12.
The question resolves fa... | true | 2020-09-25 | Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-12-31 | 2020-05-15 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-18", 0.66], ["2020-05-20", 0.636], ["2020-05-22", 0.633], ["2020-05-23", 0.653], ["2020-05-25", 0.629], ["2020-05-26", 0.63], ["2020-05-27", 0.619], ["2020-05-31", 0.621], ["2020-05-31", 0.621], ["2020-06-02", 0.631], ["2020-06-02", 0.631], ["2020-06-04", 0.636], ["2020-06-05", 0.629], ["2020-06-07", 0.623],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4415/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | American Airlines, Inc. is a major American airline headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, within the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex. It is the world's largest airline when measured by fleet size, scheduled passengers carried, and revenue passenger miles. American, together with its regional partners, usually operates an ext... | true | 2020-12-01 | Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-05-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-24", 0.4], ["2020-05-25", 0.366], ["2020-05-27", 0.364], ["2020-05-28", 0.369], ["2020-05-30", 0.374], ["2020-05-31", 0.377], ["2020-06-01", 0.383], ["2020-06-03", 0.386], ["2020-06-07", 0.386], ["2020-06-09", 0.448], ["2020-06-11", 0.452], ["2020-06-12", 0.458], ["2020-06-13", 0.463], ["2020-06-20", 0.45], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4425/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 10 September 2019 Netanyahu announced his plan to annex the Jordan Valley if he wins the election. He also promised to annex all Jewish settlements in the West Bank, after publication of the Trump peace plan and consultations with President Donald Trump.
In a speech last month, Israeli PM Netanyahu said he was confi... | true | 2020-11-30 | Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2020-05-23 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_nuclear_weapons_tests"] | binary | [["2020-06-19", 0.1], ["2020-06-21", 0.254], ["2020-06-23", 0.242], ["2020-06-25", 0.271], ["2020-06-27", 0.256], ["2020-06-30", 0.248], ["2020-07-02", 0.246], ["2020-07-13", 0.245], ["2020-07-18", 0.242], ["2020-07-18", 0.241], ["2020-07-23", 0.241], ["2020-07-26", 0.234], ["2020-07-28", 0.23], ["2020-08-09", 0.224], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4456/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.
Washington Post: Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades
The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test exp... | true | 2022-01-01 | Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-30 | 2020-05-29 | [] | binary | [["2020-05-31", 0.43], ["2020-06-01", 0.415], ["2020-06-01", 0.415], ["2020-06-01", 0.36], ["2020-06-01", 0.302], ["2020-06-01", 0.302], ["2020-06-01", 0.272], ["2020-06-01", 0.299], ["2020-06-01", 0.304], ["2020-06-02", 0.304], ["2020-06-02", 0.314], ["2020-06-03", 0.314], ["2020-06-03", 0.327], ["2020-06-03", 0.318],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4516/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | California SB 902 is a housing bill authored by Scott Weiner to add a section to the government code relating to land use to increase the housing supply in California.
The Housing Committee's summary of the bill is
This bill permits a local government to pass an ordinance to zone any parcel up to 10 units of residentia... | true | 2020-08-14 | Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2020-06-01 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-01", 0.9], ["2020-06-01", 0.636], ["2020-06-02", 0.623], ["2020-06-03", 0.637], ["2020-06-04", 0.624], ["2020-06-04", 0.621], ["2020-06-05", 0.622], ["2020-06-06", 0.606], ["2020-06-06", 0.598], ["2020-06-07", 0.58], ["2020-06-08", 0.534], ["2020-06-09", 0.527], ["2020-06-10", 0.526], ["2020-06-11", 0.523], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4536/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested... | true | 2020-08-30 | Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-27 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-06", 0.375], ["2020-06-06", 0.428], ["2020-06-06", 0.44], ["2020-06-06", 0.441], ["2020-06-06", 0.47], ["2020-06-06", 0.468], ["2020-06-06", 0.468], ["2020-06-06", 0.48], ["2020-06-07", 0.48], ["2020-06-07", 0.496], ["2020-06-07", 0.509], ["2020-06-07", 0.496], ["2020-06-07", 0.503], ["2020-06-07", 0.499], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4554/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) is a mathematics competition for pre-university students. It consists of six questions, each scored out of seven. The highest possible score is therefore 42. The problems are extremely difficult, and mean scores are typically less than 15 marks. It is not uncommon for no st... | true | 2020-09-14 | Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-16 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-05", 0.99], ["2020-06-05", 0.73], ["2020-06-05", 0.68], ["2020-06-05", 0.682], ["2020-06-05", 0.677], ["2020-06-05", 0.677], ["2020-06-05", 0.671], ["2020-06-05", 0.668], ["2020-06-05", 0.665], ["2020-06-06", 0.674], ["2020-06-06", 0.666], ["2020-06-06", 0.666], ["2020-06-06", 0.664], ["2020-06-06", 0.664], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4555/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Politifact is an independent fact-checking organisation which focuses primarily, but not entirely, on US politics. Claims are assigned a rating on the “Truth-o-meter” ranging from “True” to “Pants on Fire”. For a statement to qualify as “Pants on Fire”, it should both not be accurate and make what politifact considers ... | true | 2020-07-13 | Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-08 | 2020-06-02 | [] | binary | [["2020-06-04", 0.65], ["2020-06-05", 0.65], ["2020-06-05", 0.66], ["2020-06-05", 0.586], ["2020-06-05", 0.543], ["2020-06-05", 0.551], ["2020-06-05", 0.551], ["2020-06-05", 0.53], ["2020-06-05", 0.507], ["2020-06-05", 0.489], ["2020-06-06", 0.483], ["2020-06-06", 0.483], ["2020-06-06", 0.487], ["2020-06-06", 0.472], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4556/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | Grant Sanderson’s educational youtube channel 3Blue1Brown produces instructional animated videos explaining difficult mathematical concepts in original and often beautiful ways (at least in the opinion of this question’s author). Many of the videos on the channel are organised into series covering particular branches o... | true | 2020-07-06 | Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July? | metaculus | 0 |
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