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2021-01-23
|
2020-10-14
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-20", 0.3], ["2020-10-20", 0.417], ["2020-10-20", 0.417], ["2020-10-21", 0.406], ["2020-10-21", 0.446], ["2020-10-21", 0.443], ["2020-10-21", 0.432], ["2020-10-21", 0.434], ["2020-10-21", 0.442], ["2020-10-21", 0.462], ["2020-10-21", 0.47], ["2020-10-21", 0.457], ["2020-10-21", 0.451], ["2020-10-21", 0.438], ["2020-10-22", 0.436], ["2020-10-22", 0.445], ["2020-10-22", 0.436], ["2020-10-22", 0.436], ["2020-10-22", 0.434], ["2020-10-22", 0.434], ["2020-10-22", 0.424], ["2020-10-23", 0.424], ["2020-10-23", 0.422], ["2020-10-23", 0.417], ["2020-10-23", 0.425], ["2020-10-23", 0.438], ["2020-10-23", 0.427], ["2020-10-24", 0.427], ["2020-10-24", 0.42], ["2020-10-24", 0.417], ["2020-10-24", 0.412], ["2020-10-24", 0.412], ["2020-10-24", 0.408], ["2020-10-24", 0.416], ["2020-10-25", 0.41], ["2020-10-25", 0.41], ["2020-10-25", 0.41], ["2020-10-25", 0.406], ["2020-10-25", 0.405], ["2020-10-25", 0.398], ["2020-10-25", 0.398], ["2020-10-25", 0.4], ["2020-10-25", 0.395], ["2020-10-25", 0.395], ["2020-10-25", 0.41], ["2020-10-25", 0.411], ["2020-10-25", 0.414], ["2020-10-25", 0.413], ["2020-10-26", 0.409], ["2020-10-26", 0.404], ["2020-10-26", 0.406], ["2020-10-26", 0.414], ["2020-10-26", 0.414], ["2020-10-26", 0.413], ["2020-10-26", 0.407], ["2020-10-26", 0.405], ["2020-10-26", 0.411], ["2020-10-26", 0.412], ["2020-10-27", 0.411], ["2020-10-27", 0.416], ["2020-10-27", 0.416], ["2020-10-27", 0.415], ["2020-10-27", 0.413], ["2020-10-27", 0.415], ["2020-10-27", 0.416], ["2020-10-27", 0.414], ["2020-10-27", 0.419], ["2020-10-27", 0.414], ["2020-10-27", 0.411], ["2020-10-28", 0.417], ["2020-10-28", 0.421], ["2020-10-28", 0.423], ["2020-10-28", 0.423], ["2020-10-28", 0.417], ["2020-10-28", 0.417], ["2020-10-28", 0.425], ["2020-10-28", 0.425], ["2020-10-28", 0.419], ["2020-10-28", 0.415], ["2020-10-28", 0.42], ["2020-10-28", 0.42], ["2020-10-28", 0.413], ["2020-10-29", 0.412], ["2020-10-29", 0.403], ["2020-10-29", 0.403], ["2020-10-29", 0.403], ["2020-10-29", 0.402], ["2020-10-29", 0.395], ["2020-10-29", 0.393], ["2020-10-29", 0.393], ["2020-10-29", 0.385], ["2020-10-29", 0.387], ["2020-10-29", 0.386], ["2020-10-29", 0.386], ["2020-10-29", 0.385], ["2020-10-29", 0.385], ["2020-10-29", 0.386], ["2020-10-30", 0.385], ["2020-10-30", 0.384], ["2020-10-30", 0.387], ["2020-10-30", 0.389]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5440/
|
This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
There are mounting concerns that the nearing US presidential elections will be contested. Sitting president Donald Trump has attacked the legitimacy of the voting system and publicly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power in the event that he loses the election. In light of the complications and time involved in resolving a contested election, some have warned of civil unrest and the possibility of violent outbreaks following the election.
This question asks:
|
Security & Defense
|
This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports that link deaths to election-related violence. Note that such deaths must occur as a direct result of violent confrontation that is primarily linked to election activity. For example, a fatal clash at the polls or at an election-related protest would count. By contrast, a fatal clash at a Black Lives Matter protest would not count since this would not be primarily linked to the election. Any deaths that occur due to violence before 3 November or after 20 January would not count for this question.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here.
| true
|
2020-10-30
|
Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-03-06
|
2020-10-14
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-20", 0.05], ["2020-10-20", 0.458], ["2020-10-20", 0.458], ["2020-10-21", 0.396], ["2020-10-21", 0.361], ["2020-10-21", 0.358], ["2020-10-21", 0.375], ["2020-10-21", 0.375], ["2020-10-21", 0.449], ["2020-10-21", 0.429], ["2020-10-21", 0.426], ["2020-10-21", 0.426], ["2020-10-21", 0.469], ["2020-10-21", 0.486], ["2020-10-21", 0.5], ["2020-10-21", 0.513], ["2020-10-21", 0.505], ["2020-10-21", 0.506], ["2020-10-22", 0.508], ["2020-10-22", 0.508], ["2020-10-22", 0.513], ["2020-10-22", 0.507], ["2020-10-22", 0.518], ["2020-10-22", 0.518], ["2020-10-22", 0.531], ["2020-10-22", 0.532], ["2020-10-22", 0.532], ["2020-10-22", 0.523], ["2020-10-22", 0.516], ["2020-10-22", 0.532], ["2020-10-22", 0.541], ["2020-10-22", 0.541], ["2020-10-23", 0.542], ["2020-10-23", 0.542], ["2020-10-23", 0.551], ["2020-10-23", 0.542], ["2020-10-24", 0.542], ["2020-10-24", 0.544], ["2020-10-24", 0.543], ["2020-10-24", 0.548], ["2020-10-24", 0.55], ["2020-10-24", 0.545], ["2020-10-24", 0.552], ["2020-10-24", 0.551], ["2020-10-24", 0.553], ["2020-10-24", 0.553], ["2020-10-25", 0.553], ["2020-10-25", 0.553], ["2020-10-25", 0.557], ["2020-10-25", 0.559], ["2020-10-25", 0.559], ["2020-10-25", 0.559], ["2020-10-25", 0.559], ["2020-10-25", 0.56], ["2020-10-25", 0.554], ["2020-10-25", 0.554], ["2020-10-25", 0.561], ["2020-10-26", 0.561], ["2020-10-26", 0.558], ["2020-10-26", 0.558], ["2020-10-26", 0.567], ["2020-10-26", 0.563], ["2020-10-26", 0.56], ["2020-10-27", 0.56], ["2020-10-27", 0.565], ["2020-10-27", 0.566], ["2020-10-27", 0.562], ["2020-10-27", 0.565], ["2020-10-27", 0.568], ["2020-10-27", 0.561], ["2020-10-27", 0.568], ["2020-10-27", 0.571], ["2020-10-28", 0.573], ["2020-10-28", 0.567], ["2020-10-28", 0.569], ["2020-10-28", 0.563], ["2020-10-28", 0.567], ["2020-10-28", 0.567], ["2020-10-28", 0.565], ["2020-10-28", 0.565], ["2020-10-29", 0.568], ["2020-10-29", 0.561], ["2020-10-29", 0.562], ["2020-10-29", 0.562], ["2020-10-29", 0.564], ["2020-10-29", 0.564], ["2020-10-29", 0.564], ["2020-10-29", 0.572], ["2020-10-29", 0.572], ["2020-10-29", 0.573], ["2020-10-29", 0.575], ["2020-10-29", 0.574], ["2020-10-29", 0.58], ["2020-10-29", 0.576], ["2020-10-29", 0.576], ["2020-10-29", 0.587], ["2020-10-29", 0.588], ["2020-10-30", 0.594], ["2020-10-30", 0.595], ["2020-10-30", 0.59], ["2020-10-30", 0.59]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5441/
|
This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
According to Wikipedia, in 2020 there were 7 terrorist attacks in OECD founding member states.
This question asks:
|
Security & Defense
|
An event will be considered a 'terrorist attack' if it is described as such by any agency of the state authorities of the country where the attack occurred. Mass shootings or other criminal events that are not considered to be 'terrorist attacks' by authrities do not count.
OECD founding member states include: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, including all territorial waters.
Victims that die after March 1 2021 of injuries sustained in an event before March 1 202 will not be included.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here.
| true
|
2020-10-30
|
Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-06-17
|
2020-10-14
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-17", 0.25], ["2020-10-17", 0.425], ["2020-10-17", 0.533], ["2020-10-17", 0.585], ["2020-10-17", 0.585], ["2020-10-17", 0.684], ["2020-10-17", 0.67], ["2020-10-17", 0.638], ["2020-10-18", 0.638], ["2020-10-18", 0.633], ["2020-10-18", 0.584], ["2020-10-18", 0.566], ["2020-10-18", 0.542], ["2020-10-18", 0.542], ["2020-10-18", 0.53], ["2020-10-19", 0.513], ["2020-10-19", 0.501], ["2020-10-19", 0.501], ["2020-10-20", 0.488], ["2020-10-20", 0.488], ["2020-10-21", 0.493], ["2020-10-21", 0.493], ["2020-10-24", 0.494], ["2020-10-24", 0.496], ["2020-10-24", 0.511], ["2020-10-25", 0.514], ["2020-10-25", 0.517], ["2020-10-27", 0.53], ["2020-10-27", 0.53], ["2020-10-30", 0.52], ["2020-11-02", 0.516], ["2020-11-02", 0.516], ["2020-11-02", 0.515], ["2020-11-02", 0.507], ["2020-11-02", 0.505], ["2020-11-03", 0.509], ["2020-11-03", 0.509], ["2020-11-03", 0.509], ["2020-11-03", 0.508], ["2020-11-03", 0.511], ["2020-11-03", 0.511], ["2020-11-04", 0.51], ["2020-11-04", 0.514], ["2020-11-04", 0.515], ["2020-11-04", 0.52], ["2020-11-04", 0.52], ["2020-11-04", 0.52], ["2020-11-04", 0.529], ["2020-11-04", 0.529], ["2020-11-04", 0.532], ["2020-11-04", 0.534], ["2020-11-05", 0.544], ["2020-11-05", 0.544], ["2020-11-05", 0.543], ["2020-11-05", 0.541], ["2020-11-05", 0.541], ["2020-11-05", 0.544], ["2020-11-05", 0.545], ["2020-11-05", 0.546], ["2020-11-05", 0.548], ["2020-11-05", 0.545], ["2020-11-06", 0.545], ["2020-11-06", 0.544], ["2020-11-06", 0.541], ["2020-11-06", 0.541], ["2020-11-06", 0.541], ["2020-11-06", 0.541], ["2020-11-06", 0.54], ["2020-11-07", 0.54], ["2020-11-07", 0.54], ["2020-11-07", 0.542], ["2020-11-07", 0.542], ["2020-11-07", 0.544], ["2020-11-07", 0.545], ["2020-11-07", 0.547], ["2020-11-07", 0.548], ["2020-11-07", 0.548], ["2020-11-07", 0.548], ["2020-11-07", 0.55], ["2020-11-08", 0.548], ["2020-11-08", 0.546], ["2020-11-08", 0.547], ["2020-11-08", 0.547], ["2020-11-08", 0.551], ["2020-11-08", 0.553], ["2020-11-08", 0.554], ["2020-11-09", 0.554], ["2020-11-09", 0.556], ["2020-11-09", 0.556], ["2020-11-09", 0.556], ["2020-11-09", 0.553], ["2020-11-09", 0.553], ["2020-11-09", 0.552], ["2020-11-09", 0.554], ["2020-11-09", 0.554], ["2020-11-09", 0.556], ["2020-11-09", 0.555], ["2020-11-10", 0.554], ["2020-11-10", 0.554], ["2020-11-10", 0.554], ["2020-11-10", 0.553]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5445/
|
From the Kaiser Family Foundation,
The Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) future continues to be uncertain as the law’s constitutionality will once again be considered by the U.S. Supreme Court in California v. Texas (known as Texas v. U.S. in the lower courts). Oral argument is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2020. This ongoing litigation challenges the ACA’s minimum essential coverage provision (known as the individual mandate) and raises questions about the entire law’s survival. The individual mandate provides that most people must maintain a minimum level of health insurance coverage; those who do not do so must pay a financial penalty (known as the shared responsibility payment) to the IRS. The individual mandate was upheld as a constitutional exercise of Congress’ taxing power by a five member majority of the Supreme Court in NFIB v. Sebelius in 2012.
In the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), Congress set the shared responsibility payment at zero dollars as of January 1, 2019, leading to the current litigation. In December 2019, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit affirmed the trial court’s decision that the individual mandate is no longer constitutional because the associated financial penalty no longer “produces at least some revenue” for the federal government. But, instead of deciding whether the rest of the ACA must be struck down, the 5th Circuit sent the case back to the trial court for additional analysis. However, the Supreme Court has now agreed to review the case.
The ACA remains in effect while the litigation is pending. However, if all or most of the law ultimately is struck down, it will have complex and far-reaching consequences for the nation’s health care system, affecting nearly everyone in some way. A host of ACA provisions could be eliminated, including protections for people with pre-existing conditions, subsidies to make individual health insurance more affordable, expanded eligibility for Medicaid, coverage of young adults up to age 26 under their parents’ insurance policies, coverage of preventive care with no patient cost-sharing, closing of the doughnut hole under Medicare’s drug benefit, and a series of tax increases to fund these initiatives.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if credible media report that the Supreme Court of the United States upheld the decision of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit to declare parts of the Affordable Care Act and the minimum essential coverage provision (ie. the individual mandate) unconstitutional.
Fine Print
I don't understand law well enough to distinguish between potential rulings in this case. Therefore, the question was worded specifically to avoid phrases like, "Will the supreme court strike down Obamacare?" since I don't know exactly what that would entail. The community should come to a consensus on the meanings of terms before the question closes, or else this question resolves ambiguously.
| true
|
2020-11-10
|
Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-12
|
2020-10-15
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-20", 0.75], ["2020-10-20", 0.695], ["2020-10-20", 0.69], ["2020-10-21", 0.643], ["2020-10-21", 0.643], ["2020-10-21", 0.623], ["2020-10-21", 0.585], ["2020-10-21", 0.583], ["2020-10-21", 0.588], ["2020-10-21", 0.583], ["2020-10-21", 0.583], ["2020-10-21", 0.588], ["2020-10-21", 0.59], ["2020-10-21", 0.589], ["2020-10-21", 0.589], ["2020-10-21", 0.593], ["2020-10-22", 0.588], ["2020-10-22", 0.596], ["2020-10-22", 0.598], ["2020-10-22", 0.598], ["2020-10-22", 0.604], ["2020-10-22", 0.604], ["2020-10-22", 0.604], ["2020-10-22", 0.593], ["2020-10-22", 0.594], ["2020-10-22", 0.594], ["2020-10-23", 0.597], ["2020-10-23", 0.599], ["2020-10-23", 0.607], ["2020-10-23", 0.607], ["2020-10-23", 0.618], ["2020-10-23", 0.62], ["2020-10-24", 0.609], ["2020-10-24", 0.607], ["2020-10-24", 0.606], ["2020-10-24", 0.608], ["2020-10-24", 0.608], ["2020-10-24", 0.608], ["2020-10-24", 0.607], ["2020-10-24", 0.611], ["2020-10-24", 0.609], ["2020-10-24", 0.617], ["2020-10-25", 0.617], ["2020-10-25", 0.611], ["2020-10-25", 0.617], ["2020-10-25", 0.617], ["2020-10-25", 0.617], ["2020-10-25", 0.616], ["2020-10-25", 0.618], ["2020-10-25", 0.617], ["2020-10-25", 0.608], ["2020-10-25", 0.607], ["2020-10-25", 0.628], ["2020-10-25", 0.631], ["2020-10-25", 0.631], ["2020-10-26", 0.627], ["2020-10-26", 0.631], ["2020-10-26", 0.631], ["2020-10-26", 0.635], ["2020-10-26", 0.635], ["2020-10-26", 0.635], ["2020-10-26", 0.643], ["2020-10-26", 0.635], ["2020-10-26", 0.638], ["2020-10-26", 0.638], ["2020-10-26", 0.641], ["2020-10-27", 0.641], ["2020-10-27", 0.646], ["2020-10-27", 0.646], ["2020-10-27", 0.648], ["2020-10-27", 0.648], ["2020-10-27", 0.647], ["2020-10-27", 0.65], ["2020-10-27", 0.652], ["2020-10-27", 0.651], ["2020-10-27", 0.643], ["2020-10-27", 0.644], ["2020-10-28", 0.642], ["2020-10-28", 0.645], ["2020-10-28", 0.647], ["2020-10-28", 0.646], ["2020-10-28", 0.646], ["2020-10-28", 0.648], ["2020-10-28", 0.644], ["2020-10-28", 0.64], ["2020-10-29", 0.642], ["2020-10-29", 0.643], ["2020-10-29", 0.642], ["2020-10-29", 0.641], ["2020-10-29", 0.64], ["2020-10-29", 0.639], ["2020-10-29", 0.639], ["2020-10-29", 0.641], ["2020-10-29", 0.64], ["2020-10-29", 0.641], ["2020-10-29", 0.641], ["2020-10-29", 0.645], ["2020-10-29", 0.646], ["2020-10-30", 0.648], ["2020-10-30", 0.652], ["2020-10-30", 0.65]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5448/
|
This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
Currently, with 53 seats, the Republican Party occupies a majority of the 100 seats in the Senate.
The 2020 United States Senate elections will be held on November 3, 2020, with the 33 Class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections and 2 seats in special elections. In all Republicans will be defending 23 seats, and Democrats 12 seats.
According to Vox:
Democrats need to win back at least three seats to reclaim the Senate majority, but they are also defending Sen. Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, where Trump has a 28-point net approval rating. If Jones loses, that means Democrats need to win four seats and the White House (where their party's vice president could vote to break ties in the Senate), or net five seats without the White House advantage.
This question asks:
|
Politics & Governance
|
The question resolves positively if Democrats hold 51 seats or more in the Senate according to the official election results.
For the purpose of this question, counts of Democratic seats includes all independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.
*To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here.
| true
|
2020-10-30
|
Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2020-12-15
|
2020-10-15
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-20", 0.45], ["2020-10-20", 0.434], ["2020-10-20", 0.411], ["2020-10-21", 0.475], ["2020-10-21", 0.491], ["2020-10-21", 0.491], ["2020-10-21", 0.499], ["2020-10-21", 0.508], ["2020-10-21", 0.535], ["2020-10-21", 0.544], ["2020-10-21", 0.55], ["2020-10-21", 0.509], ["2020-10-21", 0.507], ["2020-10-21", 0.507], ["2020-10-21", 0.507], ["2020-10-21", 0.519], ["2020-10-21", 0.513], ["2020-10-21", 0.526], ["2020-10-22", 0.519], ["2020-10-22", 0.508], ["2020-10-22", 0.495], ["2020-10-22", 0.494], ["2020-10-22", 0.489], ["2020-10-22", 0.489], ["2020-10-22", 0.489], ["2020-10-22", 0.475], ["2020-10-22", 0.472], ["2020-10-22", 0.468], ["2020-10-23", 0.468], ["2020-10-23", 0.468], ["2020-10-23", 0.468], ["2020-10-23", 0.453], ["2020-10-23", 0.457], ["2020-10-23", 0.459], ["2020-10-24", 0.459], ["2020-10-24", 0.453], ["2020-10-24", 0.453], ["2020-10-24", 0.444], ["2020-10-24", 0.446], ["2020-10-24", 0.446], ["2020-10-24", 0.457], ["2020-10-25", 0.462], ["2020-10-25", 0.462], ["2020-10-25", 0.453], ["2020-10-25", 0.457], ["2020-10-25", 0.457], ["2020-10-25", 0.453], ["2020-10-25", 0.453], ["2020-10-25", 0.455], ["2020-10-25", 0.455], ["2020-10-26", 0.452], ["2020-10-26", 0.454], ["2020-10-26", 0.454], ["2020-10-26", 0.449], ["2020-10-26", 0.442], ["2020-10-26", 0.441], ["2020-10-26", 0.434], ["2020-10-26", 0.443], ["2020-10-27", 0.431], ["2020-10-27", 0.431], ["2020-10-27", 0.434], ["2020-10-27", 0.433], ["2020-10-27", 0.437], ["2020-10-27", 0.429], ["2020-10-27", 0.429], ["2020-10-27", 0.436], ["2020-10-27", 0.449], ["2020-10-27", 0.445], ["2020-10-27", 0.445], ["2020-10-28", 0.446], ["2020-10-28", 0.442], ["2020-10-28", 0.442], ["2020-10-28", 0.44], ["2020-10-28", 0.44], ["2020-10-28", 0.437], ["2020-10-28", 0.437], ["2020-10-28", 0.432], ["2020-10-28", 0.433], ["2020-10-28", 0.429], ["2020-10-29", 0.428], ["2020-10-29", 0.425], ["2020-10-29", 0.423], ["2020-10-29", 0.422], ["2020-10-29", 0.423], ["2020-10-29", 0.422], ["2020-10-29", 0.424], ["2020-10-29", 0.422], ["2020-10-29", 0.422], ["2020-10-29", 0.418], ["2020-10-29", 0.413], ["2020-10-29", 0.413], ["2020-10-29", 0.413], ["2020-10-29", 0.417], ["2020-10-29", 0.413], ["2020-10-29", 0.413], ["2020-10-30", 0.409], ["2020-10-30", 0.414], ["2020-10-30", 0.414], ["2020-10-30", 0.413], ["2020-10-30", 0.41], ["2020-10-30", 0.417]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5449/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.
Prior to the 2016 US presidential elections, the latest polling averages indicated that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote versus Republican candidate Donald Trump by a margin of +3.2%. The true margin in the popular vote turned out to be only +2.1% in favor of Clinton. In other words, the disparity between the average margin in the polls and the true margin was 1.1%.
As of 15 October 2020, RealClearPolitics.com is reporting an average margin of +9.2% in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden over Donald Trump.
This question asks:
Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3% percentage points or more?
This question resolves positively if the final results of the popular vote indicate a margin between the candidates that is wider or narrower by 3 percentage points or more than the latest available spread according to RealClearPolitics.com. The question resolves negatively if this disparity is less than 3.0%.
To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here.
| true
|
2020-10-30
|
Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2020-11-15
|
2020-10-21
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-24", 0.9], ["2020-10-25", 0.922], ["2020-10-25", 0.886], ["2020-10-25", 0.886], ["2020-10-25", 0.877], ["2020-10-25", 0.872], ["2020-10-25", 0.872], ["2020-10-25", 0.878], ["2020-10-25", 0.871], ["2020-10-25", 0.873], ["2020-10-25", 0.875], ["2020-10-25", 0.846], ["2020-10-25", 0.83], ["2020-10-25", 0.837], ["2020-10-25", 0.835], ["2020-10-26", 0.82], ["2020-10-26", 0.823], ["2020-10-26", 0.823], ["2020-10-26", 0.821], ["2020-10-26", 0.83], ["2020-10-26", 0.83], ["2020-10-26", 0.832], ["2020-10-26", 0.829], ["2020-10-26", 0.829], ["2020-10-26", 0.83], ["2020-10-26", 0.829], ["2020-10-26", 0.826], ["2020-10-26", 0.826], ["2020-10-27", 0.812], ["2020-10-27", 0.8], ["2020-10-27", 0.798], ["2020-10-27", 0.788], ["2020-10-27", 0.788], ["2020-10-27", 0.786], ["2020-10-27", 0.782], ["2020-10-27", 0.784], ["2020-10-27", 0.781], ["2020-10-27", 0.773], ["2020-10-27", 0.773], ["2020-10-27", 0.772], ["2020-10-27", 0.77], ["2020-10-27", 0.766], ["2020-10-27", 0.766], ["2020-10-27", 0.763], ["2020-10-27", 0.759], ["2020-10-28", 0.759], ["2020-10-28", 0.756], ["2020-10-28", 0.76], ["2020-10-28", 0.752], ["2020-10-28", 0.746], ["2020-10-29", 0.746], ["2020-10-29", 0.751], ["2020-10-29", 0.751], ["2020-10-29", 0.749], ["2020-10-29", 0.749], ["2020-10-29", 0.749], ["2020-10-29", 0.75], ["2020-10-29", 0.751], ["2020-10-29", 0.751], ["2020-10-30", 0.752], ["2020-10-30", 0.752], ["2020-10-30", 0.753], ["2020-10-30", 0.754], ["2020-10-30", 0.754], ["2020-10-30", 0.754], ["2020-10-30", 0.754], ["2020-10-30", 0.755], ["2020-10-30", 0.755], ["2020-10-30", 0.756], ["2020-10-30", 0.757], ["2020-10-31", 0.756], ["2020-10-31", 0.756], ["2020-10-31", 0.756], ["2020-10-31", 0.756], ["2020-10-31", 0.758], ["2020-10-31", 0.76], ["2020-10-31", 0.751], ["2020-10-31", 0.751], ["2020-10-31", 0.752], ["2020-10-31", 0.755], ["2020-10-31", 0.756], ["2020-10-31", 0.755], ["2020-11-01", 0.755], ["2020-11-01", 0.756], ["2020-11-01", 0.756], ["2020-11-01", 0.755], ["2020-11-01", 0.755], ["2020-11-01", 0.756], ["2020-11-01", 0.758], ["2020-11-01", 0.758], ["2020-11-01", 0.758], ["2020-11-02", 0.758], ["2020-11-02", 0.757], ["2020-11-02", 0.757], ["2020-11-02", 0.756], ["2020-11-02", 0.757], ["2020-11-02", 0.757], ["2020-11-02", 0.754], ["2020-11-02", 0.754], ["2020-11-02", 0.755], ["2020-11-02", 0.756]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5502/
|
Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight site has achieved significant notoriety for developing a system to carefully aggregate election polls to create well-calibrated statistical forecasts of outcome elections; his site publishes daily updates to predictions for primary and general elections in House, Senate and Presidential races.
Prediction markets have offered an alternative to poll aggregation in forecasting elections. Markets such as (the now defunct) InTrade, the Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt, and others ask users to buy and sell shares assigned to each candidate in each race, so that the price point corresponds to the probability of victory. In this question we focus on PredictIt, which allows users to place relatively small real-money bets on candidates.
Both FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt have published probabilities for each state in the 2020 Presidential Election.
Which forecasts will prove to be more accurate?
|
Politics & Governance
|
To compare, we will score each set of predictions using a Brier score averaged over all N=51 races, computed as
where enumerates the possible outcomes (i.e. possible winners) in the th race out of N, where is the forecast probability of candidate winning the th race, and is assigned 1 if candidate wins the th race, and 0 otherwise.
For example, if PredictIt assigned 52% to Trump and 48% to Biden in Texas and if Trump won then PredictIt would achieve a Brier Score of
A lower Brier score is better, with perfect predictions corresponding to S=0.
This question resolves positively if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for PredictIt's probabilities, where we will take values as of 1400 UTC on 02-Nov-2020, and election outcomes as reported over the coming days.
To obtain the PredictIt probabilities, we will download the market data from here ; take the average of the prices for each contract (ie (bestSellYesCost + bestBuyYesCost + (1-bestSellNoCost) + (1-bestBuyNoCost))/4) ; and convert to probabilities as Dem_Probability = Dem_Price / (Dem_Price + Rep_Price).
To obtain the 538 probabilities we will download the CSV from here and take the winstate_inc for Republicans and winstate_chal for Democrats in each state. (Ignoring congressional district specific probabilities
| true
|
2020-11-02
|
Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2020-11-15
|
2020-10-21
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-24", 0.61], ["2020-10-24", 0.548], ["2020-10-25", 0.571], ["2020-10-25", 0.56], ["2020-10-25", 0.562], ["2020-10-25", 0.562], ["2020-10-25", 0.564], ["2020-10-25", 0.564], ["2020-10-25", 0.573], ["2020-10-25", 0.573], ["2020-10-25", 0.554], ["2020-10-25", 0.53], ["2020-10-25", 0.519], ["2020-10-25", 0.512], ["2020-10-25", 0.484], ["2020-10-25", 0.478], ["2020-10-26", 0.476], ["2020-10-26", 0.476], ["2020-10-26", 0.473], ["2020-10-26", 0.466], ["2020-10-26", 0.465], ["2020-10-26", 0.463], ["2020-10-26", 0.463], ["2020-10-26", 0.462], ["2020-10-26", 0.46], ["2020-10-26", 0.46], ["2020-10-26", 0.445], ["2020-10-27", 0.451], ["2020-10-27", 0.452], ["2020-10-27", 0.452], ["2020-10-27", 0.452], ["2020-10-27", 0.45], ["2020-10-27", 0.45], ["2020-10-27", 0.452], ["2020-10-27", 0.457], ["2020-10-27", 0.451], ["2020-10-27", 0.45], ["2020-10-27", 0.448], ["2020-10-27", 0.448], ["2020-10-27", 0.447], ["2020-10-28", 0.454], ["2020-10-28", 0.459], ["2020-10-28", 0.46], ["2020-10-28", 0.46], ["2020-10-28", 0.46], ["2020-10-28", 0.461], ["2020-10-28", 0.469], ["2020-10-28", 0.464], ["2020-10-28", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.465], ["2020-10-29", 0.465], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.464], ["2020-10-29", 0.47], ["2020-10-29", 0.47], ["2020-10-30", 0.473], ["2020-10-30", 0.479], ["2020-10-30", 0.479], ["2020-10-30", 0.482], ["2020-10-30", 0.485], ["2020-10-30", 0.485], ["2020-10-30", 0.485], ["2020-10-30", 0.487], ["2020-10-30", 0.486], ["2020-10-30", 0.486], ["2020-10-30", 0.487], ["2020-10-30", 0.49], ["2020-10-30", 0.492], ["2020-10-31", 0.492], ["2020-10-31", 0.497], ["2020-10-31", 0.498], ["2020-10-31", 0.499], ["2020-10-31", 0.499], ["2020-10-31", 0.5], ["2020-10-31", 0.5], ["2020-10-31", 0.499], ["2020-10-31", 0.499], ["2020-11-01", 0.499], ["2020-11-01", 0.5], ["2020-11-01", 0.5], ["2020-11-01", 0.501], ["2020-11-01", 0.5], ["2020-11-01", 0.507], ["2020-11-01", 0.507], ["2020-11-01", 0.507], ["2020-11-01", 0.508], ["2020-11-02", 0.507], ["2020-11-02", 0.507], ["2020-11-02", 0.504], ["2020-11-02", 0.508], ["2020-11-02", 0.508], ["2020-11-02", 0.508], ["2020-11-02", 0.511]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5503/
|
There are many groups forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election using (primarily) polls based models. FiveThirtyEight run by Nate Silver and The Economist run by G Elliott Morris.
Both FiveThirtyEight and The Economist have published probabilities for each state in the 2020 Presidential Election.
Which forecasts will prove to be more accurate?
|
Politics & Governance
|
To compare, we will score each set of predictions using a Brier score averaged over all N=51 races, computed as
where enumerates the possible outcomes (i.e. possible winners) in the th race out of N, where is the forecast probability of candidate winning the th race, and is assigned 1 if candidate wins the th race, and 0 otherwise.
For example, if The Economist assigned 52% to Trump and 48% to Biden in Texas and if Trump won then The Economist would achieve a Brier Score of
A lower Brier score is better, with perfect predictions corresponding to S=0.
This question resolves positively if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for The Economist's probabilities. We will download each model's "model outputs" from their respective websites at 1400 UTC 02-Nov-2020
To obtain the 538 probabilities we will download the CSV from here and take the winstate_inc for Republicans and winstate_chal for Democrats in each state. (Ignoring congressional district specific probabilities)
To obtain The Economist's probabilities we will download the model outputs zip here, and use the values from the state_averages_and_predictions_topline.csv fil
| true
|
2020-11-02
|
Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2020-12-15
|
2020-10-22
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-24", 0.1], ["2020-10-24", 0.225], ["2020-10-24", 0.183], ["2020-10-24", 0.173], ["2020-10-24", 0.168], ["2020-10-25", 0.168], ["2020-10-25", 0.158], ["2020-10-25", 0.158], ["2020-10-25", 0.137], ["2020-10-25", 0.224], ["2020-10-25", 0.209], ["2020-10-25", 0.208], ["2020-10-25", 0.209], ["2020-10-25", 0.209], ["2020-10-25", 0.197], ["2020-10-26", 0.194], ["2020-10-26", 0.188], ["2020-10-26", 0.188], ["2020-10-26", 0.195], ["2020-10-26", 0.22], ["2020-10-26", 0.219], ["2020-10-26", 0.22], ["2020-10-26", 0.229], ["2020-10-26", 0.23], ["2020-10-26", 0.23], ["2020-10-26", 0.222], ["2020-10-26", 0.222], ["2020-10-26", 0.223], ["2020-10-26", 0.222], ["2020-10-26", 0.22], ["2020-10-27", 0.22], ["2020-10-27", 0.208], ["2020-10-27", 0.208], ["2020-10-27", 0.208], ["2020-10-27", 0.218], ["2020-10-27", 0.218], ["2020-10-27", 0.215], ["2020-10-27", 0.217], ["2020-10-27", 0.213], ["2020-10-27", 0.212], ["2020-10-27", 0.209], ["2020-10-27", 0.209], ["2020-10-27", 0.205], ["2020-10-27", 0.207], ["2020-10-27", 0.208], ["2020-10-27", 0.208], ["2020-10-27", 0.207], ["2020-10-27", 0.209], ["2020-10-27", 0.206], ["2020-10-27", 0.205], ["2020-10-27", 0.201], ["2020-10-28", 0.201], ["2020-10-28", 0.199], ["2020-10-28", 0.199], ["2020-10-28", 0.199], ["2020-10-29", 0.205], ["2020-10-29", 0.199], ["2020-10-30", 0.2], ["2020-10-30", 0.2], ["2020-10-31", 0.199], ["2020-10-31", 0.194], ["2020-10-31", 0.19], ["2020-11-01", 0.187], ["2020-11-01", 0.186], ["2020-11-01", 0.186], ["2020-11-01", 0.186], ["2020-11-02", 0.182], ["2020-11-02", 0.179], ["2020-11-02", 0.175], ["2020-11-02", 0.177], ["2020-11-02", 0.177], ["2020-11-02", 0.18], ["2020-11-02", 0.18], ["2020-11-02", 0.177], ["2020-11-02", 0.177], ["2020-11-02", 0.174], ["2020-11-02", 0.174], ["2020-11-02", 0.173], ["2020-11-02", 0.179], ["2020-11-02", 0.179], ["2020-11-02", 0.178], ["2020-11-02", 0.177], ["2020-11-02", 0.177], ["2020-11-02", 0.177], ["2020-11-02", 0.177], ["2020-11-02", 0.186], ["2020-11-02", 0.197], ["2020-11-02", 0.197], ["2020-11-02", 0.199], ["2020-11-03", 0.199], ["2020-11-03", 0.204], ["2020-11-03", 0.203], ["2020-11-03", 0.203], ["2020-11-03", 0.2], ["2020-11-03", 0.204], ["2020-11-03", 0.205], ["2020-11-03", 0.205], ["2020-11-03", 0.203], ["2020-11-03", 0.202], ["2020-11-03", 0.202]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5505/
|
In 2000, major news networks, such as NBC, called the election early for Al Gore. In the end, George Bush actually received the required votes in the electoral college, and became president.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if any of the following major news networks call the 2020 presidential election for a candidate who does not eventually win the election (as defined by whoever wins at least 270 votes in the electoral college, or a majority in the House of Representatives in case no candidate receives a majority in the electoral college).
Fox News
Associated Press
NBC
ABC
CBS
PBS
MSNBC
CN
| true
|
2020-11-03
|
Will a major network call the election prematurely?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2023-01-01
|
2020-10-23
|
["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life\u2026", "https://www.planetary.org/articles/life-on-venus-new-updates", "https://blogs.nasa.gov/sofia/2022/11/29/no-phosphine-on-venus-according-to-sofia/", "https://phys.org/news/2022-12-phosphine-venus-isnt.html"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-29", 0.3], ["2020-10-29", 0.25], ["2020-10-30", 0.165], ["2020-10-30", 0.18], ["2020-10-31", 0.186], ["2020-10-31", 0.217], ["2020-11-01", 0.221], ["2020-11-01", 0.233], ["2020-11-02", 0.28], ["2020-11-02", 0.28], ["2020-11-02", 0.288], ["2020-11-03", 0.264], ["2020-11-03", 0.226], ["2020-11-03", 0.188], ["2020-11-04", 0.183], ["2020-11-04", 0.196], ["2020-11-04", 0.191], ["2020-11-04", 0.175], ["2020-11-05", 0.17], ["2020-11-07", 0.168], ["2020-11-07", 0.162], ["2020-11-15", 0.161], ["2020-11-15", 0.157], ["2020-11-15", 0.157], ["2020-11-15", 0.157], ["2020-11-17", 0.16], ["2020-11-17", 0.157], ["2020-11-17", 0.154], ["2020-11-18", 0.155], ["2020-11-21", 0.155], ["2020-11-22", 0.152], ["2020-11-22", 0.151], ["2020-11-22", 0.149], ["2020-11-23", 0.16], ["2020-11-23", 0.158], ["2020-11-23", 0.16], ["2020-11-23", 0.157], ["2020-11-24", 0.154], ["2020-11-27", 0.158], ["2020-11-28", 0.158], ["2020-11-29", 0.158], ["2020-11-29", 0.16], ["2020-12-03", 0.161], ["2020-12-04", 0.159], ["2020-12-11", 0.159], ["2020-12-11", 0.158], ["2020-12-13", 0.163], ["2020-12-20", 0.164], ["2020-12-24", 0.164], ["2020-12-26", 0.165], ["2020-12-31", 0.166], ["2020-12-31", 0.166], ["2021-01-01", 0.167], ["2021-01-02", 0.166], ["2021-01-03", 0.165], ["2021-01-04", 0.164], ["2021-01-04", 0.164], ["2021-01-13", 0.167], ["2021-01-14", 0.167], ["2021-01-26", 0.167], ["2021-01-27", 0.168], ["2021-01-29", 0.167], ["2021-01-29", 0.167], ["2021-01-30", 0.171], ["2021-01-31", 0.171], ["2021-01-31", 0.162], ["2021-01-31", 0.162], ["2021-01-31", 0.16], ["2021-02-01", 0.16], ["2021-02-02", 0.159], ["2021-02-02", 0.157], ["2021-02-04", 0.157], ["2021-02-07", 0.16], ["2021-02-10", 0.159], ["2021-02-10", 0.161], ["2021-02-11", 0.162], ["2021-02-19", 0.16], ["2021-02-23", 0.16], ["2021-03-04", 0.16], ["2021-03-22", 0.163], ["2021-04-07", 0.162], ["2021-04-10", 0.162], ["2021-04-14", 0.164], ["2021-04-22", 0.164], ["2021-05-01", 0.163], ["2021-05-06", 0.163], ["2021-05-07", 0.164], ["2021-05-09", 0.165], ["2021-05-10", 0.165], ["2021-05-10", 0.165], ["2021-05-14", 0.167], ["2021-05-14", 0.167], ["2021-05-14", 0.166], ["2021-05-17", 0.166], ["2021-05-23", 0.166], ["2021-05-29", 0.166], ["2021-05-29", 0.168], ["2021-05-30", 0.167], ["2021-05-31", 0.166], ["2021-05-31", 0.166], ["2021-05-31", 0.164]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5509/
|
In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus. There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).
However, a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus.
There is also a plethora of other work discussed at Centauri Dreams.
|
Science & Tech
|
This question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.
The question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.
Related question:
[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life…
| true
|
2021-05-31
|
Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-03-31
|
2020-10-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-29", 0.4], ["2020-10-30", 0.4], ["2020-10-30", 0.383], ["2020-10-31", 0.357], ["2020-11-01", 0.365], ["2020-11-01", 0.367], ["2020-11-02", 0.406], ["2020-11-03", 0.417], ["2020-11-03", 0.469], ["2020-11-04", 0.495], ["2020-11-04", 0.507], ["2020-11-05", 0.523], ["2020-11-05", 0.539], ["2020-11-07", 0.539], ["2020-11-08", 0.539], ["2020-11-09", 0.528], ["2020-11-09", 0.537], ["2020-11-10", 0.509], ["2020-11-12", 0.527], ["2020-11-13", 0.55], ["2020-11-14", 0.558], ["2020-11-15", 0.556], ["2020-11-16", 0.545], ["2020-11-16", 0.542], ["2020-11-18", 0.544], ["2020-11-19", 0.542], ["2020-11-20", 0.541], ["2020-11-20", 0.541], ["2020-11-25", 0.541], ["2020-11-26", 0.536], ["2020-11-27", 0.532], ["2020-12-01", 0.53], ["2020-12-04", 0.53], ["2020-12-04", 0.535], ["2020-12-05", 0.536], ["2020-12-07", 0.524], ["2020-12-12", 0.524], ["2020-12-13", 0.523], ["2020-12-15", 0.537], ["2020-12-15", 0.54], ["2020-12-16", 0.541], ["2020-12-16", 0.543], ["2020-12-18", 0.551], ["2020-12-21", 0.554], ["2020-12-21", 0.552], ["2020-12-23", 0.554], ["2020-12-23", 0.573], ["2020-12-24", 0.571], ["2020-12-24", 0.577], ["2020-12-26", 0.578], ["2020-12-26", 0.581], ["2020-12-27", 0.59], ["2020-12-27", 0.59], ["2020-12-29", 0.591], ["2020-12-30", 0.589], ["2020-12-31", 0.599], ["2021-01-01", 0.597], ["2021-01-01", 0.598], ["2021-01-02", 0.603], ["2021-01-03", 0.612], ["2021-01-03", 0.613], ["2021-01-04", 0.612], ["2021-01-05", 0.613], ["2021-01-06", 0.616], ["2021-01-07", 0.616], ["2021-01-08", 0.619], ["2021-01-10", 0.619], ["2021-01-11", 0.615], ["2021-01-11", 0.615], ["2021-01-12", 0.61], ["2021-01-13", 0.611], ["2021-01-13", 0.611], ["2021-01-16", 0.607], ["2021-01-16", 0.604], ["2021-01-17", 0.592], ["2021-01-17", 0.591], ["2021-01-19", 0.59], ["2021-01-19", 0.585], ["2021-01-20", 0.583], ["2021-01-20", 0.571], ["2021-01-21", 0.562], ["2021-01-21", 0.549], ["2021-01-22", 0.52], ["2021-01-22", 0.508], ["2021-01-23", 0.486], ["2021-01-23", 0.481], ["2021-01-24", 0.468], ["2021-01-24", 0.468], ["2021-01-25", 0.455], ["2021-01-25", 0.396], ["2021-01-26", 0.365], ["2021-01-26", 0.352], ["2021-01-27", 0.34], ["2021-01-27", 0.289], ["2021-01-28", 0.278], ["2021-01-29", 0.254], ["2021-01-29", 0.234], ["2021-01-30", 0.209], ["2021-01-31", 0.169], ["2021-01-31", 0.133], ["2021-01-31", 0.132]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5511/
|
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres, is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States.
As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.
In October 2020, the company announced that "existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021." This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection.
On October 13 2020, Bloomberg reported that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.
|
Economics & Business
|
This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing.
Fine Print
If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously.
| true
|
2021-02-01
|
Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2020-12-04
|
2020-10-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-27", 0.14], ["2020-10-27", 0.37], ["2020-10-27", 0.297], ["2020-10-27", 0.322], ["2020-10-27", 0.298], ["2020-10-27", 0.265], ["2020-10-27", 0.246], ["2020-10-27", 0.237], ["2020-10-28", 0.269], ["2020-10-28", 0.25], ["2020-10-29", 0.27], ["2020-10-29", 0.277], ["2020-10-29", 0.277], ["2020-10-29", 0.292], ["2020-10-30", 0.294], ["2020-10-30", 0.304], ["2020-10-30", 0.304], ["2020-10-30", 0.304], ["2020-10-30", 0.301], ["2020-10-30", 0.301], ["2020-10-30", 0.297], ["2020-10-30", 0.308], ["2020-10-31", 0.304], ["2020-10-31", 0.312], ["2020-10-31", 0.312], ["2020-10-31", 0.311], ["2020-10-31", 0.311]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5512/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Other
|
The Darwin Game is a game hosted on Lesswrong. In the Darwin Game, pairs of bots are matched up and play a Bargaining problem in which each name a number of points to get under the constraint that neither gets points if the number adds to more than 5. This is iterated for 100 turns so bots can incorporate the past behavior of their opponent in their decisions. The pool of bots has a number of copies of each bot proportional to how well they performed on previous rounds.
The user-submitted bots in the tournament have been categorized into 4 groups:
Norm Enforcers: Ben Pace and jacobjacob's bots which mutually cooperate.
Clone Army: A clique of 8 bots which cooperate with each other and will behave identically up until round 90.
Multics: EarlyBirdMimicBot, which uses an exploit to fake being a clone to the Clone Army but behaves differently against other bots, and two password bots which aid it.
Chaos Army: Miscellaneous group of all other user-submitted bots.
One of these other user-submitted bots is AbstractSpyTreeBot, which simulates its opponent to predict what number it will name and returns the highest number that would still give it points.
In a previous run of the tournament, AbstractSpyTreeBot was performing as well as the clone bots as of round 10 despite the clones not recognizing it as a clone, though this was run with a bug in the engine running the tournament.
Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?
This question resolves positively if, in the last round of the Darwin Game posted by lsusr, AbstractSpyTreeBot has the greatest population in the pool of bots.
| true
|
2020-11-01
|
[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-08-08
|
2020-10-28
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-03", 0.7], ["2020-11-03", 0.66], ["2020-11-04", 0.645], ["2020-11-05", 0.691], ["2020-11-06", 0.69], ["2020-11-07", 0.696], ["2020-11-08", 0.712], ["2020-11-09", 0.732], ["2020-11-10", 0.732], ["2020-11-12", 0.714], ["2020-11-15", 0.719], ["2020-11-17", 0.726], ["2020-11-18", 0.733], ["2020-11-19", 0.728], ["2020-11-20", 0.729], ["2020-11-21", 0.724], ["2020-12-05", 0.724], ["2020-12-06", 0.728], ["2020-12-06", 0.729], ["2020-12-08", 0.729], ["2020-12-12", 0.722], ["2020-12-17", 0.723], ["2020-12-19", 0.723], ["2020-12-20", 0.721], ["2020-12-22", 0.72], ["2020-12-24", 0.733], ["2021-01-02", 0.733], ["2021-01-03", 0.739], ["2021-01-04", 0.741], ["2021-01-13", 0.744], ["2021-01-20", 0.744], ["2021-01-20", 0.751], ["2021-01-22", 0.749], ["2021-01-29", 0.75], ["2021-01-30", 0.746], ["2021-02-01", 0.747], ["2021-02-03", 0.745], ["2021-02-10", 0.745], ["2021-02-10", 0.744], ["2021-02-12", 0.745], ["2021-02-13", 0.745], ["2021-02-24", 0.733], ["2021-02-25", 0.724], ["2021-03-07", 0.723], ["2021-03-07", 0.723], ["2021-03-19", 0.726], ["2021-03-20", 0.725], ["2021-03-21", 0.728], ["2021-03-22", 0.734], ["2021-03-23", 0.736], ["2021-03-27", 0.736], ["2021-03-29", 0.74], ["2021-03-30", 0.75], ["2021-04-07", 0.752], ["2021-04-10", 0.752], ["2021-04-13", 0.745], ["2021-04-14", 0.743], ["2021-04-16", 0.743], ["2021-04-19", 0.743], ["2021-04-23", 0.745], ["2021-04-28", 0.746], ["2021-05-04", 0.748], ["2021-05-06", 0.748], ["2021-05-07", 0.748], ["2021-05-18", 0.748], ["2021-05-19", 0.754], ["2021-05-23", 0.755], ["2021-05-23", 0.756], ["2021-06-08", 0.753], ["2021-06-09", 0.753], ["2021-06-11", 0.75], ["2021-06-12", 0.75], ["2021-06-15", 0.75], ["2021-06-16", 0.75], ["2021-06-18", 0.75], ["2021-06-24", 0.751], ["2021-06-25", 0.751], ["2021-06-26", 0.751], ["2021-06-28", 0.752], ["2021-06-29", 0.753], ["2021-06-29", 0.756], ["2021-07-01", 0.756], ["2021-07-02", 0.765], ["2021-07-04", 0.765], ["2021-07-05", 0.758], ["2021-07-05", 0.763], ["2021-07-07", 0.763], ["2021-07-07", 0.759], ["2021-07-08", 0.759], ["2021-07-09", 0.764], ["2021-07-11", 0.77], ["2021-07-12", 0.77], ["2021-07-13", 0.77], ["2021-07-14", 0.77], ["2021-07-15", 0.769], ["2021-07-16", 0.772], ["2021-07-18", 0.772], ["2021-07-18", 0.772], ["2021-07-19", 0.772], ["2021-07-21", 0.779], ["2021-07-21", 0.78]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5541/
|
The 2020 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).
The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
Number of Gold Medals
(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?
|
Sports
|
This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team
| true
|
2021-07-21
|
Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-08-08
|
2020-10-28
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-03", 0.2], ["2020-11-04", 0.445], ["2020-11-05", 0.436], ["2020-11-06", 0.397], ["2020-11-07", 0.388], ["2020-11-09", 0.376], ["2020-11-09", 0.377], ["2020-11-15", 0.367], ["2020-11-19", 0.369], ["2020-11-20", 0.369], ["2020-11-21", 0.38], ["2020-11-23", 0.381], ["2020-11-23", 0.381], ["2020-12-05", 0.379], ["2020-12-06", 0.379], ["2020-12-08", 0.38], ["2020-12-12", 0.374], ["2020-12-12", 0.376], ["2020-12-16", 0.383], ["2020-12-17", 0.383], ["2020-12-18", 0.375], ["2020-12-20", 0.377], ["2020-12-24", 0.377], ["2020-12-24", 0.38], ["2021-01-02", 0.38], ["2021-01-03", 0.393], ["2021-01-04", 0.395], ["2021-01-09", 0.395], ["2021-01-11", 0.391], ["2021-01-20", 0.391], ["2021-01-29", 0.408], ["2021-02-01", 0.408], ["2021-02-03", 0.411], ["2021-02-09", 0.413], ["2021-02-10", 0.415], ["2021-02-23", 0.416], ["2021-02-25", 0.418], ["2021-02-26", 0.418], ["2021-03-01", 0.42], ["2021-03-02", 0.423], ["2021-03-07", 0.423], ["2021-03-19", 0.423], ["2021-03-23", 0.428], ["2021-03-23", 0.426], ["2021-03-27", 0.426], ["2021-04-01", 0.421], ["2021-04-07", 0.421], ["2021-04-10", 0.421], ["2021-04-14", 0.422], ["2021-04-14", 0.423], ["2021-04-21", 0.423], ["2021-05-04", 0.422], ["2021-05-04", 0.423], ["2021-05-06", 0.424], ["2021-05-07", 0.424], ["2021-05-11", 0.426], ["2021-05-16", 0.43], ["2021-05-18", 0.427], ["2021-05-19", 0.437], ["2021-05-23", 0.437], ["2021-05-28", 0.437], ["2021-06-02", 0.438], ["2021-06-03", 0.433], ["2021-06-04", 0.432], ["2021-06-05", 0.432], ["2021-06-08", 0.432], ["2021-06-09", 0.434], ["2021-06-10", 0.433], ["2021-06-11", 0.434], ["2021-06-12", 0.461], ["2021-06-14", 0.467], ["2021-06-15", 0.469], ["2021-06-16", 0.475], ["2021-06-17", 0.476], ["2021-06-18", 0.486], ["2021-06-19", 0.492], ["2021-06-24", 0.492], ["2021-06-25", 0.491], ["2021-06-27", 0.492], ["2021-06-28", 0.495], ["2021-06-29", 0.495], ["2021-06-30", 0.498], ["2021-07-01", 0.497], ["2021-07-02", 0.496], ["2021-07-03", 0.496], ["2021-07-05", 0.503], ["2021-07-05", 0.501], ["2021-07-07", 0.501], ["2021-07-07", 0.501], ["2021-07-08", 0.501], ["2021-07-09", 0.503], ["2021-07-11", 0.507], ["2021-07-11", 0.507], ["2021-07-13", 0.509], ["2021-07-14", 0.509], ["2021-07-15", 0.51], ["2021-07-16", 0.51], ["2021-07-18", 0.511], ["2021-07-18", 0.511], ["2021-07-20", 0.508], ["2021-07-21", 0.522]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5542/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Sports
|
There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances
Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last 5 placings were:
2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th
Will they come in the Top 4 again?
Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics
This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.
The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
Number of Gold Medals
(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
| true
|
2021-07-21
|
Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-01-01
|
2020-10-29
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-10-31", 0.08], ["2020-11-02", 0.595], ["2020-11-04", 0.605], ["2020-11-05", 0.563], ["2020-11-07", 0.569], ["2020-11-08", 0.578], ["2020-11-10", 0.578], ["2020-11-11", 0.644], ["2020-11-12", 0.669], ["2020-11-16", 0.671], ["2020-11-18", 0.66], ["2020-11-20", 0.663], ["2020-11-24", 0.663], ["2020-12-05", 0.667], ["2020-12-05", 0.669], ["2020-12-08", 0.669], ["2020-12-20", 0.651], ["2020-12-22", 0.651], ["2020-12-23", 0.69], ["2020-12-28", 0.69], ["2020-12-28", 0.695], ["2021-01-01", 0.695], ["2021-01-03", 0.696], ["2021-01-04", 0.698], ["2021-01-13", 0.702], ["2021-01-14", 0.69], ["2021-01-20", 0.69], ["2021-01-20", 0.688], ["2021-01-29", 0.689], ["2021-01-30", 0.695], ["2021-02-01", 0.694], ["2021-02-03", 0.693], ["2021-02-09", 0.693], ["2021-02-10", 0.683], ["2021-02-12", 0.683], ["2021-02-14", 0.687], ["2021-02-28", 0.685], ["2021-03-08", 0.684], ["2021-03-10", 0.683], ["2021-03-16", 0.683], ["2021-03-18", 0.685], ["2021-03-24", 0.684], ["2021-03-25", 0.689], ["2021-03-31", 0.687], ["2021-04-01", 0.686], ["2021-04-04", 0.685], ["2021-04-07", 0.687], ["2021-04-10", 0.687], ["2021-04-12", 0.689], ["2021-04-14", 0.689], ["2021-04-16", 0.689], ["2021-04-30", 0.69], ["2021-05-02", 0.701], ["2021-05-10", 0.701], ["2021-05-23", 0.702], ["2021-06-02", 0.702], ["2021-06-06", 0.703], ["2021-06-10", 0.704], ["2021-06-18", 0.704], ["2021-06-23", 0.702], ["2021-06-29", 0.708], ["2021-07-01", 0.708], ["2021-07-05", 0.703], ["2021-07-07", 0.703], ["2021-07-12", 0.706], ["2021-07-14", 0.706], ["2021-07-15", 0.706], ["2021-07-20", 0.706], ["2021-07-22", 0.704], ["2021-08-05", 0.705], ["2021-08-07", 0.709], ["2021-08-09", 0.711], ["2021-08-14", 0.711], ["2021-08-16", 0.719], ["2021-08-16", 0.722], ["2021-08-25", 0.722], ["2021-08-27", 0.724], ["2021-09-02", 0.725], ["2021-09-03", 0.725], ["2021-09-08", 0.727], ["2021-09-10", 0.728], ["2021-09-15", 0.73], ["2021-09-17", 0.73], ["2021-09-21", 0.731], ["2021-09-22", 0.731], ["2021-09-28", 0.736], ["2021-09-30", 0.742], ["2021-10-02", 0.741], ["2021-10-04", 0.745], ["2021-10-05", 0.747], ["2021-10-07", 0.747], ["2021-10-09", 0.747], ["2021-10-11", 0.755], ["2021-10-15", 0.754], ["2021-10-17", 0.751], ["2021-10-19", 0.75], ["2021-10-21", 0.755], ["2021-10-23", 0.756], ["2021-10-25", 0.757], ["2021-10-28", 0.766], ["2021-10-28", 0.769]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5552/
|
The Hedonometer is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of "Dow Jones Index of Happiness".
According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.
Historical data is available here.
|
Social Sciences
|
This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.
Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the "English-speaking world"
| true
|
2021-10-28
|
Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-03-28
|
2020-10-30
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-02", 0.13], ["2020-11-02", 0.343], ["2020-11-04", 0.356], ["2020-11-05", 0.338], ["2020-11-07", 0.326], ["2020-11-07", 0.278], ["2020-11-15", 0.279], ["2020-11-15", 0.279], ["2020-11-17", 0.276], ["2020-11-18", 0.276], ["2020-11-18", 0.257], ["2020-11-19", 0.251], ["2020-11-20", 0.272], ["2020-11-23", 0.266], ["2020-12-02", 0.266], ["2020-12-05", 0.264], ["2020-12-06", 0.264], ["2020-12-15", 0.263], ["2020-12-17", 0.263], ["2020-12-18", 0.281], ["2020-12-19", 0.293], ["2020-12-19", 0.298], ["2020-12-20", 0.304], ["2020-12-23", 0.301], ["2020-12-23", 0.304], ["2020-12-24", 0.307], ["2020-12-26", 0.307], ["2020-12-26", 0.313], ["2020-12-27", 0.313], ["2020-12-27", 0.303], ["2020-12-28", 0.297], ["2020-12-29", 0.297], ["2021-01-02", 0.299], ["2021-01-03", 0.299], ["2021-01-04", 0.295], ["2021-01-04", 0.294], ["2021-01-06", 0.304], ["2021-01-06", 0.301], ["2021-01-07", 0.301], ["2021-01-08", 0.303], ["2021-01-11", 0.304], ["2021-01-11", 0.304], ["2021-01-12", 0.322], ["2021-01-14", 0.326], ["2021-01-15", 0.326], ["2021-01-16", 0.328], ["2021-01-16", 0.339], ["2021-01-16", 0.339], ["2021-01-17", 0.341], ["2021-01-17", 0.341], ["2021-01-17", 0.34], ["2021-01-18", 0.34], ["2021-01-18", 0.342], ["2021-01-19", 0.346], ["2021-01-20", 0.349], ["2021-01-20", 0.35], ["2021-01-22", 0.348], ["2021-01-23", 0.352], ["2021-01-23", 0.355], ["2021-01-24", 0.347], ["2021-01-24", 0.348], ["2021-01-25", 0.338], ["2021-01-26", 0.338], ["2021-01-29", 0.339], ["2021-01-29", 0.33], ["2021-01-30", 0.321], ["2021-01-30", 0.311], ["2021-01-30", 0.304], ["2021-01-31", 0.3], ["2021-01-31", 0.29], ["2021-02-01", 0.291], ["2021-02-01", 0.286], ["2021-02-02", 0.284], ["2021-02-02", 0.284], ["2021-02-03", 0.279], ["2021-02-03", 0.279], ["2021-02-03", 0.279], ["2021-02-04", 0.278], ["2021-02-04", 0.275], ["2021-02-05", 0.277], ["2021-02-06", 0.273], ["2021-02-06", 0.273], ["2021-02-06", 0.274], ["2021-02-07", 0.274], ["2021-02-07", 0.276], ["2021-02-08", 0.276], ["2021-02-08", 0.275], ["2021-02-09", 0.275], ["2021-02-09", 0.271], ["2021-02-09", 0.27], ["2021-02-10", 0.27], ["2021-02-10", 0.273], ["2021-02-11", 0.273], ["2021-02-12", 0.268], ["2021-02-13", 0.268], ["2021-02-13", 0.268], ["2021-02-14", 0.266], ["2021-02-14", 0.259], ["2021-02-14", 0.245], ["2021-02-15", 0.238], ["2021-02-15", 0.226]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5554/
|
On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner tweeted:
Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.
Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.
The "always open" flagship 5th Ave Apple Store location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?
|
Science & Tech
|
Resolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location
| true
|
2021-02-15
|
Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-07-21
|
2020-10-30
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-04", 0.95], ["2020-11-05", 0.532], ["2020-11-07", 0.555], ["2020-11-10", 0.715], ["2020-11-13", 0.722], ["2020-11-15", 0.727], ["2020-11-17", 0.728], ["2020-11-20", 0.729], ["2020-11-23", 0.728], ["2020-11-26", 0.729], ["2020-11-28", 0.746], ["2020-12-02", 0.746], ["2020-12-03", 0.748], ["2020-12-06", 0.747], ["2020-12-10", 0.75], ["2020-12-11", 0.75], ["2020-12-15", 0.752], ["2020-12-17", 0.746], ["2020-12-20", 0.746], ["2020-12-21", 0.75], ["2020-12-26", 0.749], ["2020-12-28", 0.748], ["2020-12-30", 0.744], ["2021-01-01", 0.744], ["2021-01-04", 0.736], ["2021-01-06", 0.737], ["2021-01-07", 0.732], ["2021-01-10", 0.726], ["2021-01-12", 0.721], ["2021-01-13", 0.686], ["2021-01-16", 0.671], ["2021-01-18", 0.667], ["2021-01-21", 0.666], ["2021-01-23", 0.517], ["2021-01-26", 0.513], ["2021-01-28", 0.514], ["2021-01-31", 0.522], ["2021-02-01", 0.526], ["2021-02-04", 0.537], ["2021-02-07", 0.548], ["2021-02-10", 0.545], ["2021-02-11", 0.544], ["2021-02-13", 0.539], ["2021-02-15", 0.539], ["2021-02-17", 0.539], ["2021-02-19", 0.539], ["2021-02-21", 0.539], ["2021-02-23", 0.539], ["2021-02-25", 0.54], ["2021-02-27", 0.543], ["2021-02-28", 0.544], ["2021-03-03", 0.56], ["2021-03-05", 0.566], ["2021-03-08", 0.57], ["2021-03-11", 0.582], ["2021-03-13", 0.603], ["2021-03-16", 0.609], ["2021-03-19", 0.627], ["2021-03-22", 0.642], ["2021-03-24", 0.643], ["2021-03-26", 0.649], ["2021-03-28", 0.65], ["2021-03-31", 0.653], ["2021-04-02", 0.654], ["2021-04-03", 0.656], ["2021-04-06", 0.661], ["2021-04-09", 0.663], ["2021-04-11", 0.663], ["2021-04-12", 0.663], ["2021-04-14", 0.666], ["2021-04-16", 0.666], ["2021-04-19", 0.667], ["2021-04-21", 0.667], ["2021-04-23", 0.668], ["2021-04-25", 0.669], ["2021-04-26", 0.671], ["2021-04-29", 0.672], ["2021-05-01", 0.672], ["2021-05-03", 0.673], ["2021-05-05", 0.672], ["2021-05-07", 0.676], ["2021-05-10", 0.676], ["2021-05-12", 0.678], ["2021-05-14", 0.679], ["2021-05-16", 0.678], ["2021-05-19", 0.677], ["2021-05-22", 0.677], ["2021-05-24", 0.678], ["2021-05-26", 0.677], ["2021-05-29", 0.677], ["2021-06-01", 0.679], ["2021-06-04", 0.69], ["2021-06-06", 0.694], ["2021-06-09", 0.697], ["2021-06-12", 0.703], ["2021-06-15", 0.715], ["2021-06-18", 0.724], ["2021-06-21", 0.727], ["2021-06-24", 0.734], ["2021-06-27", 0.739], ["2021-06-30", 0.785]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5555/
|
The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021. Will they go ahead?
|
Sports
|
The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.
Fine Print
An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive)
| true
|
2021-06-30
|
Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-02-25
|
2020-11-01
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-02", 0.65], ["2020-11-04", 0.763], ["2020-11-04", 0.698], ["2020-11-05", 0.722], ["2020-11-08", 0.776], ["2020-11-10", 0.854], ["2020-11-13", 0.837], ["2020-11-14", 0.843], ["2020-11-14", 0.831], ["2020-11-14", 0.824], ["2020-11-14", 0.824], ["2020-11-14", 0.785], ["2020-11-15", 0.759], ["2020-11-15", 0.759], ["2020-11-15", 0.766], ["2020-11-17", 0.769], ["2020-11-17", 0.767], ["2020-11-19", 0.771], ["2020-11-20", 0.758], ["2020-11-25", 0.758], ["2020-11-29", 0.757], ["2020-12-05", 0.757], ["2020-12-15", 0.767], ["2020-12-15", 0.761], ["2020-12-15", 0.761], ["2021-01-02", 0.761], ["2021-01-03", 0.762], ["2021-01-04", 0.762], ["2021-01-13", 0.761], ["2021-01-13", 0.758], ["2021-01-14", 0.758], ["2021-02-10", 0.747], ["2021-02-10", 0.744], ["2021-02-11", 0.743], ["2021-02-11", 0.744], ["2021-02-15", 0.746], ["2021-02-15", 0.748], ["2021-02-16", 0.749], ["2021-02-16", 0.749], ["2021-04-03", 0.751], ["2021-04-08", 0.752], ["2021-04-12", 0.752], ["2021-05-03", 0.746], ["2021-05-12", 0.746], ["2021-05-25", 0.753], ["2021-06-13", 0.753], ["2021-06-16", 0.755], ["2021-06-19", 0.755], ["2021-06-20", 0.757], ["2021-06-20", 0.757], ["2021-06-22", 0.753], ["2021-06-24", 0.753], ["2021-06-26", 0.753], ["2021-06-28", 0.753], ["2021-06-28", 0.752], ["2021-06-28", 0.752], ["2021-06-29", 0.752], ["2021-06-30", 0.749], ["2021-06-30", 0.752]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5574/
|
China instituted the NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate
“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”
This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it.
The NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.
The International Energy Association (IEA) states that:
“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”
China expects an NEV credit target of 14% in 2021 and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%.
Vehicle producers need to hit the number of credits needed each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits.
As credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become carbon neutral by 2060.
|
Economics & Business
|
Resolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the International Energy Association, the International Council of Clean Transportation, or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)
| true
|
2021-06-30
|
Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-01-22
|
2020-11-01
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-02", 0.75], ["2020-11-02", 0.68], ["2020-11-02", 0.517], ["2020-11-02", 0.487], ["2020-11-02", 0.55], ["2020-11-02", 0.6], ["2020-11-04", 0.6], ["2020-11-04", 0.612], ["2020-11-04", 0.628], ["2020-11-04", 0.628], ["2020-11-08", 0.645], ["2020-11-08", 0.631], ["2020-11-08", 0.631], ["2020-11-08", 0.63], ["2020-11-08", 0.63], ["2020-11-15", 0.608], ["2020-11-17", 0.64], ["2020-11-20", 0.633], ["2020-11-20", 0.63], ["2020-11-21", 0.628], ["2020-11-21", 0.628], ["2020-11-25", 0.63], ["2020-11-26", 0.63], ["2020-11-26", 0.591], ["2020-11-26", 0.568], ["2020-12-05", 0.568], ["2020-12-20", 0.589], ["2021-01-03", 0.589], ["2021-01-04", 0.589], ["2021-01-11", 0.589], ["2021-01-23", 0.592], ["2021-01-24", 0.592], ["2021-01-24", 0.595], ["2021-01-25", 0.597], ["2021-01-25", 0.597], ["2021-01-29", 0.597], ["2021-01-31", 0.586], ["2021-02-01", 0.585], ["2021-02-10", 0.585], ["2021-02-10", 0.583], ["2021-02-11", 0.582], ["2021-04-05", 0.582], ["2021-04-06", 0.581], ["2021-04-10", 0.581], ["2021-04-12", 0.581], ["2021-06-02", 0.581], ["2021-06-15", 0.581], ["2021-06-16", 0.591], ["2021-07-09", 0.591], ["2021-07-09", 0.585], ["2021-07-11", 0.585], ["2021-07-12", 0.586], ["2021-07-16", 0.585], ["2021-07-16", 0.585], ["2021-07-20", 0.585], ["2021-07-20", 0.585], ["2021-07-23", 0.593], ["2021-08-16", 0.594], ["2021-08-16", 0.594], ["2021-08-17", 0.594], ["2021-08-17", 0.594], ["2021-08-31", 0.594], ["2021-09-06", 0.594], ["2021-09-07", 0.586], ["2021-09-26", 0.584], ["2021-09-26", 0.582], ["2021-10-07", 0.582], ["2021-11-02", 0.582], ["2021-11-28", 0.573], ["2022-01-09", 0.574], ["2022-01-13", 0.574], ["2022-01-13", 0.597], ["2022-01-22", 0.597], ["2022-01-22", 0.613], ["2022-01-22", 0.626]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5577/
|
Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve climate neutrality and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe.
As reported through ZSW, a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately 500% between 2015 and 2019.
The United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.
The United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target, with only four states with both statutory and executive targets.
Volkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by 2023 or earlier. If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States.
A question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found here.
|
Economics & Business
|
Resolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their data on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US
| true
|
2022-01-22
|
Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2020-12-19
|
2020-11-03
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-06", 0.477], ["2020-11-06", 0.477], ["2020-11-06", 0.438], ["2020-11-06", 0.472], ["2020-11-06", 0.472], ["2020-11-07", 0.411], ["2020-11-07", 0.388], ["2020-11-07", 0.372], ["2020-11-07", 0.375], ["2020-11-07", 0.375], ["2020-11-07", 0.338], ["2020-11-07", 0.343], ["2020-11-08", 0.345], ["2020-11-08", 0.353], ["2020-11-08", 0.348], ["2020-11-08", 0.348], ["2020-11-08", 0.344], ["2020-11-08", 0.344], ["2020-11-08", 0.359], ["2020-11-08", 0.357], ["2020-11-09", 0.354], ["2020-11-09", 0.354], ["2020-11-09", 0.347], ["2020-11-10", 0.346], ["2020-11-10", 0.338], ["2020-11-10", 0.343], ["2020-11-12", 0.361], ["2020-11-12", 0.358], ["2020-11-12", 0.375], ["2020-11-12", 0.361], ["2020-11-12", 0.365], ["2020-11-12", 0.36], ["2020-11-12", 0.364], ["2020-11-13", 0.364], ["2020-11-13", 0.364], ["2020-11-13", 0.367], ["2020-11-13", 0.366], ["2020-11-14", 0.366], ["2020-11-14", 0.361], ["2020-11-14", 0.367], ["2020-11-14", 0.367], ["2020-11-14", 0.367], ["2020-11-15", 0.37], ["2020-11-15", 0.372], ["2020-11-16", 0.372], ["2020-11-17", 0.376], ["2020-11-17", 0.378], ["2020-11-18", 0.378], ["2020-11-19", 0.378], ["2020-11-19", 0.379], ["2020-11-19", 0.379], ["2020-11-19", 0.379], ["2020-11-20", 0.379], ["2020-11-20", 0.379], ["2020-11-21", 0.378], ["2020-11-22", 0.38], ["2020-11-22", 0.377], ["2020-11-22", 0.377], ["2020-11-23", 0.376], ["2020-11-23", 0.376], ["2020-11-23", 0.377], ["2020-11-24", 0.377], ["2020-11-24", 0.378], ["2020-11-24", 0.378], ["2020-11-24", 0.377], ["2020-11-24", 0.372], ["2020-11-24", 0.372], ["2020-11-24", 0.365], ["2020-11-24", 0.361], ["2020-11-25", 0.36], ["2020-11-25", 0.356], ["2020-11-25", 0.355], ["2020-11-26", 0.355], ["2020-11-26", 0.355], ["2020-11-26", 0.354], ["2020-11-26", 0.346], ["2020-11-26", 0.341], ["2020-11-26", 0.338], ["2020-11-27", 0.338], ["2020-11-27", 0.335], ["2020-11-27", 0.333], ["2020-11-28", 0.333], ["2020-11-28", 0.331], ["2020-11-28", 0.33], ["2020-11-28", 0.324], ["2020-11-28", 0.32], ["2020-11-29", 0.312], ["2020-11-29", 0.312], ["2020-11-29", 0.312], ["2020-11-29", 0.308], ["2020-11-29", 0.308], ["2020-11-30", 0.273], ["2020-11-30", 0.273], ["2020-11-30", 0.264], ["2020-11-30", 0.264], ["2020-11-30", 0.256], ["2020-11-30", 0.248], ["2020-11-30", 0.244], ["2020-11-30", 0.238], ["2020-11-30", 0.236], ["2020-11-30", 0.235]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5597/
|
The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of this question on whether there would be a second wave. A second question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks very likely to resolve positive by mid November.
The UK government has recently moved to implement a month-long national lockdown, in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse. That is, except for schools and universities, which remain full open, and are strongly advised to avoid the wearing of masks in classroms for both teachers and students.
This question asks:
|
Education & Research
|
Resolution will based on an official statement from the UK Government stating that all schools are to cease in-person teaching. If there is a different policy between seperate nations in the UK, then a statement which applies only to England will be sufficient for resolution.
The closure of schools to all children above a certain age (for example, the closure of all secondary schools and sixth forms) will not be sufficient for resolution.
Fine Print
If, as was the case in the previous lockdown, schools continue in-person teaching for small numbers of vulnerable children and the children of essential workers, this question will resolve positive.
| true
|
2020-12-01
|
Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2020-12-19
|
2020-11-03
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-06", 0.5], ["2020-11-06", 0.472], ["2020-11-06", 0.436], ["2020-11-06", 0.636], ["2020-11-06", 0.636], ["2020-11-06", 0.624], ["2020-11-07", 0.572], ["2020-11-07", 0.532], ["2020-11-07", 0.528], ["2020-11-07", 0.528], ["2020-11-07", 0.503], ["2020-11-07", 0.496], ["2020-11-08", 0.496], ["2020-11-08", 0.471], ["2020-11-08", 0.461], ["2020-11-08", 0.458], ["2020-11-08", 0.463], ["2020-11-08", 0.454], ["2020-11-10", 0.454], ["2020-11-12", 0.449], ["2020-11-12", 0.463], ["2020-11-12", 0.463], ["2020-11-12", 0.458], ["2020-11-12", 0.442], ["2020-11-14", 0.442], ["2020-11-14", 0.436], ["2020-11-15", 0.435], ["2020-11-15", 0.433], ["2020-11-16", 0.434], ["2020-11-16", 0.434], ["2020-11-18", 0.43], ["2020-11-19", 0.433], ["2020-11-20", 0.432], ["2020-11-20", 0.433], ["2020-11-20", 0.433], ["2020-11-22", 0.433], ["2020-11-22", 0.429], ["2020-11-24", 0.429], ["2020-11-24", 0.428], ["2020-11-25", 0.428], ["2020-11-25", 0.422], ["2020-11-25", 0.421], ["2020-11-25", 0.421], ["2020-11-25", 0.42], ["2020-11-25", 0.417], ["2020-11-26", 0.416], ["2020-11-26", 0.421], ["2020-11-26", 0.421], ["2020-11-26", 0.419], ["2020-11-27", 0.418], ["2020-11-28", 0.416], ["2020-11-28", 0.416], ["2020-11-29", 0.415], ["2020-11-29", 0.409], ["2020-11-29", 0.409], ["2020-11-30", 0.409], ["2020-11-30", 0.403], ["2020-11-30", 0.399], ["2020-11-30", 0.372], ["2020-11-30", 0.367], ["2020-11-30", 0.314], ["2020-12-01", 0.302], ["2020-12-01", 0.302], ["2020-12-01", 0.301], ["2020-12-01", 0.299], ["2020-12-01", 0.291], ["2020-12-01", 0.289], ["2020-12-01", 0.284], ["2020-12-01", 0.279], ["2020-12-01", 0.275], ["2020-12-02", 0.276], ["2020-12-02", 0.276], ["2020-12-02", 0.267], ["2020-12-02", 0.266], ["2020-12-02", 0.262], ["2020-12-02", 0.262], ["2020-12-03", 0.26], ["2020-12-03", 0.256], ["2020-12-03", 0.255], ["2020-12-03", 0.254], ["2020-12-04", 0.249], ["2020-12-04", 0.249], ["2020-12-04", 0.249], ["2020-12-04", 0.247], ["2020-12-04", 0.247], ["2020-12-04", 0.245], ["2020-12-04", 0.241], ["2020-12-05", 0.241], ["2020-12-05", 0.239], ["2020-12-05", 0.239], ["2020-12-05", 0.233], ["2020-12-06", 0.216], ["2020-12-06", 0.216], ["2020-12-06", 0.207], ["2020-12-06", 0.201], ["2020-12-06", 0.181], ["2020-12-06", 0.18], ["2020-12-06", 0.177], ["2020-12-06", 0.167], ["2020-12-06", 0.168], ["2020-12-06", 0.165]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5598/
|
The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of this question on whether there would be a second wave. A second question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks very likely to resolve positive by mid November.
The UK government has recently moved to implement a month-long national lockdown, in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse. That is, except for schools and universities, which remain full open, and are strongly advised to avoid the wearing of masks in classroms for both teachers and students.
The guidance contains the following paragraph:
Based on current evidence and the measures that schools are already putting in place, such as the system of controls and consistent bubbles, face coverings will not be necessary in the classroom even where social distancing is not possible. Face coverings could have a negative impact on teaching and their use in the classroom should be avoided.
This question asks:
|
Politics & Governance
|
Resolution will be according to official government documentation, such as the link provided in the first paragraph.
Words to the effect of "face coverings are recommended", or a requirement that pupils and staff must wear face coverings, are required for positive resolution. A change in policy such that it is up to the discretion of schools is not sufficient.
The recommendation must be for the use of masks in classrooms. A recommendation that children wear masks in corridors then take them off in lessons is not sufficient.
If the advice varies between the different countries within the UK, whichever guidance applies to the majority of the population will be used for resolution. In practice, this means that the question will resolve positively iff face coverings are recommended for English schools.
If face coverings are recommended for staff but not for students, or vice-versa, this question resolves negative.
If face coverings are required/recommended for students above a certain age, but not below, this question resolves positively on the condition that the cut-off is 10 years old or younger (if under 11s are exempt from mask wearing, this still resolves positive).
If face coverings are recommended for secondary school pupils, but not primary school, this still resolves positive.
Fine Print
If schools close early before the Christmas Holiday, and no recommendation has yet been made, this question resolves negative.
| true
|
2020-12-07
|
Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2023-02-01
|
2020-11-04
|
["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8405/us-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-212023/", "https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/#comment-46327", "https://kscj.com/2023/01/23/ricketts-to-be-sworn-in-as-nebraska-u-s-senator-today/", "https://gallegoforarizona.com/", "https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1617567847131095040", "https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-senate-government-us-republican-party-pete-ricketts-583ec63fef45443c6fdcf14d3a817b11", "https://www.senate.gov/senators/majority-minority-leaders.htm", "https://twitter.com/BenMargiott/status/1590036853054263296?s=20&t=V9yQBdhkRHIg-LgatD2uwQ", "https://www.metaculus.com/prediction/12518/a-public-prediction-by-ted-cruz/", "https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/11/02/where-americans-stand-2022-congressional-elections", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/04/gop-sizable-senate-gains-00065091", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/briefing/republican-polls-midterms.html", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo", "https://www.predictit.org/", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate", "https://polymarket.com/midterms", "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/gop-prospects-rise-amid-economic-pessimism-wsj-poll-finds-11667295002?mod=hp_lead_pos5", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo", "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221720306007#tbl0001", "https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/2020-youth-voter-turnout-raceethnicity-and-gender", "https://thestoryexchange.org/experts-anticipate-a-surge-in-young-women-voters-in-upcoming-midterm-elections/", "https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1585082321274667008", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874", "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election", "https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/19/approval-bidens-job-performance-falls-yougov-poll?utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SM-2022-10-US-B2C-Politics", "https://youtu.be/YHhNS_EXVNw", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1583551024962613249", "https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1583115292963614722", "https://www.predictit.org/", "https://www.electionbettingodds.com/", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate", "https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1582835376078479360", "https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/19/politics-economist-yougov-poll-october-2022", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1581047521182646272", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2022/national/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/us/politics/republicans-economy-nyt-siena-poll.html", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/", "https://soccermatics.medium.com/why-fivethirtyeight-predictions-dont-beat-prediction-markets-9d619b8c1c1e", "https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/how-prediction-markets-beat-polls", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577765716861849601", "https://www.newsweek.com/senate-elections-polling-bookmakers-odds-midterms-1748437", "https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3669599-democrats-worry-polls-showing-them-as-senate-favorites-are-wrong/", "https://www.axios.com/2022/10/02/democrats-senate-pennsylvania-wisconsin", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/midterm-elections-republicans-chances-for-taking-control-of-senate-rebound-to-45-a-level-last-seen-7-weeks-ago-11664387289", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/outside-allies-help-republican-us-senate-candidates-close-gap-with-democrats-2022-10-04/?taid=633ca835e9289400014c0c70&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/03/midterm-polls-undercount-republicans/", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/02/democrats-latino-voters-poll-00059932", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/02/politics/democrats-black-voters-midterm-elections/index.html", "https://www.axios.com/2022/10/01/axios-ipsos-poll-2022-midterms-democrats", "https://aapor.org/AAPOR_Main/media/MainSiteFiles/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL_embargo.pdf", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1573406491427704832", "https://aapor.org/AAPOR_Main/media/MainSiteFiles/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL_embargo.pdf", "https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1571052400022286339?t=wZz2Q0BCi3qZ3vJvmva3aA&s=19", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/", "https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/09/15/will-americas-polls-misfire-again", "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S009457651731706X", "https://earthsky.org/space/cosmic-gorilla-effect-could-blind-detection-of-aliens/", "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/23/poll-andrew-gillum-leads-ron-desantis-by-6-in-florida-governors-race/%3foutputType=amp", "https://www.unf.edu/publicrelations/media_relations/press/2018/New_UNF_Poll_Shows_Andrew_Gillum_Leading_Ron_DeSantis_in_2018_Governor_s_Race.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1000-who-will-be-elected-governor-of-florida-in-the-2018-election", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-democrats-win-in-alaska-tells-us-about-november/", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/democratic-polls-nate-cohn-midterms-b2165600.html", "https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/09/will-polls-be-wrong-again-2022.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/briefing/polling-midterms-republicans-democrats.html", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/upshot/polling-midterms-warning.html", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/#comment-57516", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election", "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ted-cruz-says-zero-chance-biden-runs-2024-gop-60-chance-flip-senate-midterms?intcmp=tw_fnc", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republicans-have-50-50-chance-recapturing-senate-mcconnell-2022-08-22/?taid=6303f561398b3000011c1ee7&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/", "https://electionbettingodds.com/Senate2022.html", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/", "https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/senate", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-hard-to-win-a-senate-race-when-youve-never-won-an-election-before/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/#comment-57516", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1551613485204721670", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1551614117554921473"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-13", 0.5], ["2020-11-22", 0.666], ["2020-11-28", 0.67], ["2020-12-06", 0.67], ["2020-12-11", 0.67], ["2020-12-19", 0.669], ["2020-12-23", 0.67], ["2021-01-01", 0.67], ["2021-01-11", 0.629], ["2021-01-16", 0.628], ["2021-01-20", 0.623], ["2021-01-27", 0.621], ["2021-02-02", 0.62], ["2021-02-09", 0.603], ["2021-02-17", 0.595], ["2021-02-25", 0.562], ["2021-03-03", 0.56], ["2021-03-13", 0.547], ["2021-03-20", 0.545], ["2021-03-26", 0.545], ["2021-04-01", 0.544], ["2021-04-10", 0.541], ["2021-04-24", 0.541], ["2021-04-30", 0.539], ["2021-05-08", 0.547], ["2021-05-13", 0.548], ["2021-05-21", 0.548], ["2021-05-26", 0.548], ["2021-05-31", 0.548], ["2021-06-08", 0.547], ["2021-06-17", 0.547], ["2021-06-22", 0.546], ["2021-06-28", 0.546], ["2021-07-03", 0.546], ["2021-07-11", 0.546], ["2021-07-20", 0.546], ["2021-07-25", 0.546], ["2021-08-02", 0.547], ["2021-08-09", 0.546], ["2021-08-18", 0.546], ["2021-08-23", 0.545], ["2021-08-31", 0.545], ["2021-09-05", 0.546], ["2021-09-12", 0.546], ["2021-09-19", 0.548], ["2021-09-27", 0.548], ["2021-10-04", 0.548], ["2021-10-13", 0.55], ["2021-10-20", 0.55], ["2021-10-28", 0.55], ["2021-11-03", 0.55], ["2021-11-10", 0.551], ["2021-11-19", 0.56], ["2021-11-28", 0.569], ["2021-12-07", 0.573], ["2021-12-12", 0.576], ["2021-12-17", 0.579], ["2021-12-22", 0.58], ["2022-01-01", 0.585], ["2022-01-06", 0.591], ["2022-01-11", 0.596], ["2022-01-16", 0.597], ["2022-01-23", 0.601], ["2022-01-28", 0.602], ["2022-02-07", 0.603], ["2022-02-12", 0.605], ["2022-02-22", 0.607], ["2022-02-28", 0.61], ["2022-03-06", 0.611], ["2022-03-12", 0.617], ["2022-03-21", 0.619], ["2022-03-25", 0.62], ["2022-03-31", 0.621], ["2022-04-07", 0.629], ["2022-04-12", 0.634], ["2022-04-20", 0.634], ["2022-04-27", 0.634], ["2022-05-05", 0.635], ["2022-05-11", 0.636], ["2022-05-18", 0.639], ["2022-05-26", 0.641], ["2022-06-03", 0.643], ["2022-06-11", 0.645], ["2022-06-18", 0.647], ["2022-06-27", 0.654], ["2022-07-04", 0.652], ["2022-07-12", 0.649], ["2022-07-20", 0.648], ["2022-07-29", 0.642], ["2022-08-07", 0.63], ["2022-08-16", 0.623], ["2022-08-25", 0.594], ["2022-09-02", 0.586], ["2022-09-10", 0.583], ["2022-09-19", 0.567], ["2022-09-28", 0.559], ["2022-10-07", 0.552], ["2022-10-16", 0.546], ["2022-10-26", 0.553], ["2022-11-04", 0.567], ["2022-11-08", 0.583]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5632/
|
Related questions on Metaculus:
Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?
Wikipedia:
The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question will resolve as Yes if, on February 1, 2023, the US Senate Majority Leader is a Republican
| true
|
2022-11-08
|
Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2023-01-01
|
2020-11-05
|
["https://www.similarweb.com/website/bitchute.com/#overview"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-12", 0.55], ["2020-11-13", 0.513], ["2020-11-13", 0.513], ["2020-11-15", 0.485], ["2020-11-18", 0.442], ["2020-11-20", 0.442], ["2020-11-22", 0.435], ["2020-11-23", 0.418], ["2020-11-24", 0.412], ["2020-11-25", 0.397], ["2020-12-05", 0.397], ["2020-12-06", 0.387], ["2020-12-11", 0.387], ["2020-12-11", 0.387], ["2020-12-14", 0.387], ["2020-12-14", 0.408], ["2020-12-17", 0.408], ["2021-01-02", 0.39], ["2021-01-03", 0.379], ["2021-01-03", 0.379], ["2021-01-04", 0.372], ["2021-01-11", 0.404], ["2021-01-11", 0.406], ["2021-01-12", 0.406], ["2021-01-24", 0.401], ["2021-01-25", 0.403], ["2021-02-10", 0.403], ["2021-04-05", 0.405], ["2021-04-09", 0.405], ["2021-04-12", 0.405], ["2021-05-30", 0.405], ["2021-07-08", 0.405], ["2021-07-15", 0.407], ["2021-07-20", 0.406], ["2021-07-20", 0.406], ["2021-08-20", 0.419], ["2021-08-21", 0.419], ["2021-08-22", 0.418], ["2021-08-22", 0.419], ["2021-08-23", 0.42], ["2021-08-26", 0.42], ["2021-08-26", 0.424], ["2021-08-27", 0.421], ["2021-09-23", 0.421], ["2021-09-23", 0.421], ["2021-09-28", 0.416], ["2021-09-28", 0.416], ["2021-10-01", 0.415], ["2021-10-01", 0.416], ["2021-10-05", 0.415], ["2021-10-06", 0.416], ["2021-10-07", 0.416], ["2021-10-07", 0.413], ["2021-10-08", 0.409], ["2021-10-26", 0.41], ["2021-10-27", 0.411], ["2021-11-16", 0.411], ["2021-11-16", 0.413], ["2021-11-17", 0.413], ["2021-11-17", 0.414], ["2021-11-30", 0.414], ["2021-12-04", 0.415], ["2021-12-08", 0.416], ["2021-12-09", 0.417], ["2021-12-23", 0.416], ["2021-12-25", 0.413], ["2021-12-30", 0.413], ["2021-12-31", 0.414], ["2021-12-31", 0.411], ["2022-01-01", 0.414], ["2022-01-01", 0.414], ["2022-01-03", 0.41], ["2022-01-04", 0.411], ["2022-01-08", 0.411], ["2022-01-10", 0.413], ["2022-01-11", 0.412], ["2022-01-13", 0.411], ["2022-01-18", 0.41], ["2022-01-18", 0.411], ["2022-01-19", 0.412], ["2022-01-19", 0.414], ["2022-01-20", 0.408], ["2022-01-20", 0.408], ["2022-01-21", 0.404], ["2022-01-21", 0.401], ["2022-01-21", 0.401], ["2022-01-22", 0.4], ["2022-01-23", 0.405], ["2022-01-23", 0.399], ["2022-01-24", 0.399], ["2022-01-24", 0.398], ["2022-01-24", 0.398], ["2022-01-24", 0.399], ["2022-01-26", 0.402], ["2022-01-26", 0.402], ["2022-01-27", 0.402], ["2022-01-27", 0.397], ["2022-01-30", 0.396], ["2022-01-31", 0.39], ["2022-01-31", 0.389], ["2022-01-31", 0.388]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5635/
|
Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some hate groups have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.
Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel (see prior question on his Twitter also being banned). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the Anti-Defamation League as
a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.
thus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.
|
Politics & Governance
|
If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added bitchute.com to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively.
If bitchute.com is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous
| true
|
2022-01-31
|
Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-20
|
2020-11-08
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-11", 0.8], ["2020-11-11", 0.749], ["2020-11-12", 0.755], ["2020-11-12", 0.755], ["2020-11-13", 0.746], ["2020-11-13", 0.753], ["2020-11-14", 0.777], ["2020-11-14", 0.802], ["2020-11-14", 0.819], ["2020-11-15", 0.819], ["2020-11-15", 0.826], ["2020-11-16", 0.825], ["2020-11-16", 0.829], ["2020-11-17", 0.835], ["2020-11-18", 0.836], ["2020-11-18", 0.839], ["2020-11-18", 0.84], ["2020-11-19", 0.839], ["2020-11-20", 0.83], ["2020-11-21", 0.832], ["2020-11-23", 0.834], ["2020-11-24", 0.834], ["2020-11-24", 0.836], ["2020-11-26", 0.836], ["2020-11-27", 0.847], ["2020-11-28", 0.856], ["2020-11-28", 0.86], ["2020-11-29", 0.862], ["2020-11-29", 0.862], ["2020-11-30", 0.864], ["2020-12-01", 0.865], ["2020-12-01", 0.866], ["2020-12-03", 0.866], ["2020-12-03", 0.868], ["2020-12-05", 0.868], ["2020-12-07", 0.868], ["2020-12-07", 0.868], ["2020-12-08", 0.871], ["2020-12-08", 0.871], ["2020-12-09", 0.871], ["2020-12-10", 0.872], ["2020-12-11", 0.871], ["2020-12-11", 0.873], ["2020-12-12", 0.876], ["2020-12-13", 0.876], ["2020-12-14", 0.877], ["2020-12-14", 0.876], ["2020-12-15", 0.876], ["2020-12-15", 0.876], ["2020-12-16", 0.876], ["2020-12-17", 0.876], ["2020-12-18", 0.876], ["2020-12-18", 0.875], ["2020-12-18", 0.876], ["2020-12-19", 0.877], ["2020-12-19", 0.877], ["2020-12-20", 0.877], ["2020-12-21", 0.877], ["2020-12-22", 0.876], ["2020-12-23", 0.877], ["2020-12-24", 0.869], ["2020-12-24", 0.868], ["2020-12-25", 0.868], ["2020-12-25", 0.869], ["2020-12-26", 0.869], ["2020-12-26", 0.872], ["2020-12-28", 0.872], ["2020-12-28", 0.872], ["2020-12-29", 0.872], ["2020-12-29", 0.873], ["2020-12-30", 0.872], ["2020-12-30", 0.872], ["2020-12-31", 0.87], ["2020-12-31", 0.87], ["2021-01-02", 0.871], ["2021-01-02", 0.872], ["2021-01-03", 0.871], ["2021-01-03", 0.871], ["2021-01-04", 0.871], ["2021-01-04", 0.871], ["2021-01-05", 0.871], ["2021-01-05", 0.87], ["2021-01-05", 0.871], ["2021-01-06", 0.871], ["2021-01-06", 0.863], ["2021-01-07", 0.849], ["2021-01-07", 0.865], ["2021-01-08", 0.891], ["2021-01-08", 0.893], ["2021-01-09", 0.895], ["2021-01-10", 0.897], ["2021-01-10", 0.893], ["2021-01-11", 0.894], ["2021-01-11", 0.894], ["2021-01-12", 0.895], ["2021-01-13", 0.898], ["2021-01-13", 0.894], ["2021-01-14", 0.895], ["2021-01-14", 0.908], ["2021-01-15", 0.909], ["2021-01-15", 0.909]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5656/
|
As of November 8th, 2020 Donald Trump has still not conceded the election, despite multiple news networks (including his favorite, Fox News) projecting his opponent Joe Biden to be the next president of the United States. While his court cases are pending, ProPublica has noted,
It’s not likely the recount requests or ballot challenges, which are common in the wake of close elections, will make a difference in the outcome. “Recounts rarely change the vote totals very much,” said University of Kentucky law professor Joshua Douglas, and the same is true of challenges to the validity of ballots.
Some have considered the possibility that a disgraced Trump will be dragged out of the White House on inaguration day. Scott Aaronson writes,
Now that Trump has gone this far in shattering all the norms of succession, part of me wants to see him go the rest of the way … to being physically dragged out of the Oval Office by Secret Service agents on January 20, in pathetic and humiliating footage that would define how future generations remembered him.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if at least 3 credible media sources all independently report evidence that Trump left the White House willingly, and free from force or the threat of force on or before inauguration day 2021, with no evidence of intention to return (except as a potential guest, or if he wins the presidency again in some future election). Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
A threat of force is constituted by an order by a legitimate authority, such as a Secret Service agent or a judge. In other words, at least one person who has legal authority to forcefully order Trump to leave the White House must order/force him to leave for this question to resolve negatively. A pre-emptive reminder of his official scheduled departure at 12 PM January 20th 2021 does not count as an order.
In the case of a dispute between credible sources, or the absence of clear evidence, this question resolves ambiguously
| true
|
2021-01-15
|
Will Trump freely leave the White House?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2020-12-21
|
2020-11-09
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-10", 0.15], ["2020-11-10", 0.174], ["2020-11-10", 0.154], ["2020-11-10", 0.154], ["2020-11-10", 0.151], ["2020-11-10", 0.145], ["2020-11-10", 0.143], ["2020-11-11", 0.137], ["2020-11-11", 0.138], ["2020-11-11", 0.142], ["2020-11-11", 0.141], ["2020-11-11", 0.139], ["2020-11-11", 0.143], ["2020-11-11", 0.143], ["2020-11-11", 0.14], ["2020-11-11", 0.141], ["2020-11-11", 0.137], ["2020-11-11", 0.137], ["2020-11-12", 0.134], ["2020-11-12", 0.136], ["2020-11-12", 0.139], ["2020-11-12", 0.137], ["2020-11-12", 0.136], ["2020-11-12", 0.131], ["2020-11-12", 0.131], ["2020-11-12", 0.125], ["2020-11-12", 0.117], ["2020-11-12", 0.115], ["2020-11-13", 0.112], ["2020-11-13", 0.118], ["2020-11-13", 0.117], ["2020-11-13", 0.115], ["2020-11-13", 0.115], ["2020-11-13", 0.111], ["2020-11-13", 0.11], ["2020-11-13", 0.109], ["2020-11-13", 0.111], ["2020-11-13", 0.104], ["2020-11-14", 0.098], ["2020-11-14", 0.097], ["2020-11-14", 0.099], ["2020-11-14", 0.098], ["2020-11-14", 0.095], ["2020-11-14", 0.094], ["2020-11-14", 0.094], ["2020-11-14", 0.093], ["2020-11-14", 0.093], ["2020-11-15", 0.095], ["2020-11-15", 0.095], ["2020-11-15", 0.095], ["2020-11-15", 0.093], ["2020-11-15", 0.093], ["2020-11-15", 0.093], ["2020-11-15", 0.095], ["2020-11-15", 0.094], ["2020-11-15", 0.094], ["2020-11-15", 0.093], ["2020-11-16", 0.093], ["2020-11-16", 0.092], ["2020-11-16", 0.092], ["2020-11-16", 0.093], ["2020-11-16", 0.092], ["2020-11-16", 0.091], ["2020-11-16", 0.091], ["2020-11-16", 0.09], ["2020-11-17", 0.09], ["2020-11-17", 0.09], ["2020-11-17", 0.09], ["2020-11-18", 0.09], ["2020-11-18", 0.089], ["2020-11-18", 0.089], ["2020-11-18", 0.089], ["2020-11-18", 0.088], ["2020-11-18", 0.088], ["2020-11-18", 0.087], ["2020-11-18", 0.087], ["2020-11-19", 0.086], ["2020-11-19", 0.086], ["2020-11-19", 0.086], ["2020-11-19", 0.086], ["2020-11-19", 0.085], ["2020-11-19", 0.086], ["2020-11-19", 0.086], ["2020-11-20", 0.084], ["2020-11-20", 0.086], ["2020-11-20", 0.086], ["2020-11-20", 0.085], ["2020-11-20", 0.085], ["2020-11-20", 0.084], ["2020-11-20", 0.084], ["2020-11-20", 0.084], ["2020-11-21", 0.079], ["2020-11-21", 0.078], ["2020-11-21", 0.074], ["2020-11-21", 0.073], ["2020-11-21", 0.074], ["2020-11-21", 0.073], ["2020-11-21", 0.073], ["2020-11-21", 0.076], ["2020-11-21", 0.076], ["2020-11-21", 0.075]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5684/
|
As of Nov 9th, the state markets on predictit are still pricing in significant uncertainty. The following states have at least 5% implied odds of flipping from the current winner:
Nevada (90% to Biden)
Arizona (84% to Biden)
Wisconsin (88% to Biden)
Michigan (90% to Biden)
Georgia (83% to Biden)
North Carolina (95% to Trump)
Pennsylvania (87% to Biden)
Alaska (95% to Trump).
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if any of the markets above resolve in favor of the current "underdog" candidate, or if the market for any other state currently called by the networks for one candidate ultimately resolves for a different candidate.
This question resolves negatively if all of the state markets at predictit resolve in the direction of the current leader.
This question resolves ambiguously if any state market at predictit resolves ambiguously, or if any state conducts a second election in order to determine presidential electors for 2020
| true
|
2020-11-21
|
Will any states flip from the current projected winner?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-26
|
2020-11-10
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-13", 0.2], ["2020-11-13", 0.25], ["2020-11-14", 0.3], ["2020-11-15", 0.272], ["2020-11-16", 0.285], ["2020-11-16", 0.273], ["2020-11-17", 0.255], ["2020-11-18", 0.251], ["2020-11-18", 0.251], ["2020-11-19", 0.266], ["2020-11-19", 0.294], ["2020-11-20", 0.289], ["2020-11-21", 0.289], ["2020-11-22", 0.276], ["2020-11-22", 0.288], ["2020-11-24", 0.288], ["2020-11-24", 0.278], ["2020-11-30", 0.273], ["2020-11-30", 0.274], ["2020-12-01", 0.273], ["2020-12-02", 0.286], ["2020-12-02", 0.296], ["2020-12-03", 0.306], ["2020-12-03", 0.314], ["2020-12-04", 0.309], ["2020-12-04", 0.316], ["2020-12-05", 0.311], ["2020-12-05", 0.311], ["2020-12-06", 0.305], ["2020-12-08", 0.305], ["2020-12-08", 0.301], ["2020-12-09", 0.299], ["2020-12-10", 0.293], ["2020-12-11", 0.292], ["2020-12-11", 0.292], ["2020-12-12", 0.29], ["2020-12-13", 0.29], ["2020-12-13", 0.289], ["2020-12-14", 0.292], ["2020-12-15", 0.292], ["2020-12-15", 0.29], ["2020-12-15", 0.289], ["2020-12-16", 0.289], ["2020-12-17", 0.289], ["2020-12-18", 0.291], ["2020-12-19", 0.293], ["2020-12-20", 0.296], ["2020-12-20", 0.304], ["2020-12-22", 0.303], ["2020-12-23", 0.305], ["2020-12-23", 0.312], ["2020-12-24", 0.314], ["2020-12-24", 0.316], ["2020-12-24", 0.315], ["2020-12-25", 0.316], ["2020-12-26", 0.316], ["2020-12-26", 0.317], ["2020-12-26", 0.33], ["2020-12-27", 0.33], ["2020-12-27", 0.331], ["2020-12-28", 0.331], ["2020-12-29", 0.329], ["2020-12-29", 0.329], ["2020-12-30", 0.325], ["2020-12-30", 0.332], ["2020-12-31", 0.332], ["2021-01-01", 0.332], ["2021-01-02", 0.327], ["2021-01-02", 0.326], ["2021-01-03", 0.327], ["2021-01-04", 0.334], ["2021-01-04", 0.341], ["2021-01-05", 0.341], ["2021-01-05", 0.341], ["2021-01-06", 0.346], ["2021-01-06", 0.349], ["2021-01-07", 0.352], ["2021-01-07", 0.351], ["2021-01-08", 0.367], ["2021-01-08", 0.374], ["2021-01-09", 0.38], ["2021-01-09", 0.38], ["2021-01-10", 0.379], ["2021-01-10", 0.384], ["2021-01-11", 0.397], ["2021-01-12", 0.412], ["2021-01-12", 0.415], ["2021-01-13", 0.415], ["2021-01-13", 0.416], ["2021-01-14", 0.414], ["2021-01-14", 0.414], ["2021-01-15", 0.409], ["2021-01-16", 0.398], ["2021-01-16", 0.391], ["2021-01-17", 0.386], ["2021-01-18", 0.394], ["2021-01-18", 0.357], ["2021-01-19", 0.344], ["2021-01-20", 0.321], ["2021-01-20", 0.203], ["2021-01-21", 0.173]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5685/
|
Wikipedia:
A federal pardon in the United States is the action of the President of the United States that completely sets aside the punishment for a federal crime. The authority to take such action is granted to the president by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution.
CNN:
The biggest question: will Trump try to pardon himself? We don't know conclusively whether a presidential self-pardon is lawful -- primarily because nobody has ever tried it before. The Constitution places no explicit limitation on the pardon power and legal scholars differ on the issue. ...If Trump does pardon himself, federal courts could eventually give us a definitive answer.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This resolves positive if, before 21 January 2020, Trump attempts to use the pardon power (under Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the constitution) for potential crimes committed by himself. It will resolve positive even if Trump is not charged with any crimes (such as when President Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon, who had not been charged with anything, over any possible crimes connected with the Watergate scandal). It will resolve positive even if courts ultimately rule that the pardon is not legal
| true
|
2021-01-21
|
Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-29
|
2020-11-10
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-13", 0.25], ["2020-11-13", 0.238], ["2020-11-14", 0.2], ["2020-11-15", 0.282], ["2020-11-16", 0.282], ["2020-11-16", 0.261], ["2020-11-16", 0.242], ["2020-11-17", 0.238], ["2020-11-18", 0.23], ["2020-11-18", 0.236], ["2020-11-19", 0.24], ["2020-11-19", 0.24], ["2020-11-20", 0.271], ["2020-11-20", 0.279], ["2020-11-21", 0.279], ["2020-11-22", 0.268], ["2020-11-22", 0.29], ["2020-11-23", 0.29], ["2020-11-27", 0.3], ["2020-11-27", 0.3], ["2020-11-30", 0.301], ["2020-11-30", 0.301], ["2020-12-01", 0.295], ["2020-12-01", 0.323], ["2020-12-02", 0.337], ["2020-12-03", 0.355], ["2020-12-03", 0.411], ["2020-12-04", 0.431], ["2020-12-04", 0.434], ["2020-12-05", 0.426], ["2020-12-06", 0.427], ["2020-12-07", 0.427], ["2020-12-08", 0.42], ["2020-12-08", 0.424], ["2020-12-09", 0.423], ["2020-12-11", 0.427], ["2020-12-11", 0.427], ["2020-12-12", 0.427], ["2020-12-12", 0.428], ["2020-12-13", 0.43], ["2020-12-13", 0.43], ["2020-12-14", 0.432], ["2020-12-15", 0.433], ["2020-12-16", 0.433], ["2020-12-18", 0.438], ["2020-12-19", 0.442], ["2020-12-19", 0.441], ["2020-12-20", 0.446], ["2020-12-20", 0.446], ["2020-12-22", 0.447], ["2020-12-22", 0.448], ["2020-12-23", 0.463], ["2020-12-23", 0.477], ["2020-12-24", 0.474], ["2020-12-24", 0.48], ["2020-12-25", 0.485], ["2020-12-25", 0.487], ["2020-12-26", 0.487], ["2020-12-26", 0.489], ["2020-12-27", 0.489], ["2020-12-28", 0.49], ["2020-12-28", 0.488], ["2020-12-30", 0.489], ["2020-12-30", 0.494], ["2020-12-31", 0.492], ["2021-01-01", 0.49], ["2021-01-01", 0.49], ["2021-01-02", 0.49], ["2021-01-02", 0.489], ["2021-01-03", 0.49], ["2021-01-04", 0.493], ["2021-01-04", 0.493], ["2021-01-05", 0.494], ["2021-01-06", 0.492], ["2021-01-06", 0.493], ["2021-01-07", 0.496], ["2021-01-07", 0.496], ["2021-01-08", 0.503], ["2021-01-08", 0.506], ["2021-01-09", 0.508], ["2021-01-09", 0.509], ["2021-01-10", 0.509], ["2021-01-10", 0.515], ["2021-01-11", 0.522], ["2021-01-11", 0.523], ["2021-01-12", 0.525], ["2021-01-12", 0.525], ["2021-01-13", 0.523], ["2021-01-13", 0.524], ["2021-01-14", 0.527], ["2021-01-14", 0.525], ["2021-01-15", 0.523], ["2021-01-15", 0.528], ["2021-01-16", 0.528], ["2021-01-17", 0.528], ["2021-01-17", 0.529], ["2021-01-18", 0.526], ["2021-01-19", 0.51], ["2021-01-19", 0.495], ["2021-01-20", 0.377], ["2021-01-21", 0.189]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5686/
|
Wikipedia:
A federal pardon in the United States is the action of the President of the United States that completely sets aside the punishment for a federal crime. The authority to take such action is granted to the president by Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This will resolve positive if, before 21 January 2021, Trump uses the pardon power (under Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the constitution) for potential crimes committed by one of the following people.
Melania Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Ivanka Trump
Eric Trump
Tiffany Trump
Jared Kushner
It will resolve positive even if these people are not charged with any crimes (such as when President Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon, who had not been charged with anything, over any possible crimes connected with the Watergate scandal). It will resolve positive even if courts ultimately rule that the pardon is not legal
| true
|
2021-01-21
|
Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-01-01
|
2020-11-14
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-18", 0.25], ["2020-11-21", 0.218], ["2020-11-23", 0.261], ["2020-11-26", 0.272], ["2020-12-02", 0.284], ["2020-12-03", 0.284], ["2020-12-09", 0.286], ["2020-12-11", 0.281], ["2020-12-15", 0.281], ["2020-12-18", 0.279], ["2020-12-20", 0.279], ["2020-12-28", 0.279], ["2021-01-12", 0.28], ["2021-01-16", 0.28], ["2021-01-21", 0.284], ["2021-01-23", 0.286], ["2021-01-26", 0.311], ["2021-01-29", 0.312], ["2021-01-31", 0.312], ["2021-02-04", 0.312], ["2021-02-09", 0.313], ["2021-02-13", 0.308], ["2021-02-15", 0.312], ["2021-02-19", 0.312], ["2021-02-26", 0.312], ["2021-02-28", 0.313], ["2021-03-04", 0.311], ["2021-03-05", 0.307], ["2021-03-13", 0.307], ["2021-03-14", 0.307], ["2021-03-17", 0.307], ["2021-03-19", 0.307], ["2021-03-23", 0.306], ["2021-03-25", 0.305], ["2021-03-31", 0.305], ["2021-04-02", 0.304], ["2021-04-05", 0.305], ["2021-04-07", 0.304], ["2021-04-10", 0.304], ["2021-04-15", 0.304], ["2021-04-26", 0.304], ["2021-04-29", 0.303], ["2021-05-02", 0.311], ["2021-05-07", 0.31], ["2021-05-11", 0.306], ["2021-05-13", 0.302], ["2021-05-16", 0.302], ["2021-05-19", 0.302], ["2021-05-23", 0.303], ["2021-05-27", 0.303], ["2021-06-06", 0.303], ["2021-06-10", 0.303], ["2021-06-15", 0.303], ["2021-06-21", 0.302], ["2021-06-24", 0.293], ["2021-06-26", 0.288], ["2021-06-29", 0.288], ["2021-07-02", 0.275], ["2021-07-05", 0.274], ["2021-07-09", 0.271], ["2021-07-12", 0.271], ["2021-07-15", 0.271], ["2021-07-21", 0.27], ["2021-07-23", 0.27], ["2021-07-26", 0.269], ["2021-07-29", 0.26], ["2021-08-05", 0.26], ["2021-08-09", 0.256], ["2021-08-13", 0.256], ["2021-08-15", 0.256], ["2021-08-18", 0.259], ["2021-08-22", 0.259], ["2021-08-26", 0.258], ["2021-08-31", 0.258], ["2021-09-03", 0.259], ["2021-09-08", 0.257], ["2021-09-12", 0.256], ["2021-09-15", 0.251], ["2021-09-17", 0.251], ["2021-09-19", 0.25], ["2021-09-21", 0.249], ["2021-09-29", 0.249], ["2021-10-02", 0.248], ["2021-10-04", 0.247], ["2021-10-09", 0.247], ["2021-10-16", 0.247], ["2021-10-16", 0.247], ["2021-10-22", 0.246], ["2021-10-25", 0.245], ["2021-10-28", 0.243], ["2021-10-30", 0.242], ["2021-11-03", 0.238], ["2021-11-06", 0.234], ["2021-11-10", 0.231], ["2021-11-13", 0.224], ["2021-11-16", 0.224], ["2021-11-19", 0.223], ["2021-11-22", 0.221], ["2021-11-26", 0.215], ["2021-11-30", 0.176], ["2021-11-30", 0.173]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5721/
|
Nuclear weapons have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 Trinity test.
A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found here.
As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt. It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.
|
Security & Defense
|
This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.
There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously
| true
|
2021-12-01
|
Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-07-20
|
2020-11-16
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-23", 0.3], ["2020-11-24", 0.662], ["2020-11-26", 0.661], ["2020-11-27", 0.589], ["2020-11-29", 0.597], ["2020-12-01", 0.597], ["2020-12-03", 0.598], ["2020-12-05", 0.603], ["2020-12-06", 0.601], ["2020-12-09", 0.602], ["2020-12-11", 0.589], ["2020-12-13", 0.591], ["2020-12-15", 0.59], ["2020-12-17", 0.587], ["2020-12-19", 0.587], ["2020-12-21", 0.586], ["2020-12-22", 0.588], ["2020-12-24", 0.578], ["2020-12-26", 0.58], ["2020-12-26", 0.586], ["2020-12-30", 0.589], ["2021-01-02", 0.592], ["2021-01-04", 0.592], ["2021-01-06", 0.594], ["2021-01-08", 0.584], ["2021-01-10", 0.576], ["2021-01-13", 0.584], ["2021-01-14", 0.584], ["2021-01-17", 0.585], ["2021-01-18", 0.584], ["2021-01-20", 0.585], ["2021-01-22", 0.586], ["2021-01-25", 0.602], ["2021-01-26", 0.602], ["2021-01-28", 0.613], ["2021-01-29", 0.632], ["2021-01-31", 0.629], ["2021-02-01", 0.631], ["2021-02-03", 0.631], ["2021-02-05", 0.628], ["2021-02-06", 0.628], ["2021-02-08", 0.629], ["2021-02-10", 0.622], ["2021-02-11", 0.623], ["2021-02-13", 0.624], ["2021-02-15", 0.628], ["2021-02-16", 0.627], ["2021-02-18", 0.632], ["2021-02-19", 0.632], ["2021-02-20", 0.632], ["2021-02-22", 0.631], ["2021-02-23", 0.631], ["2021-02-24", 0.631], ["2021-02-25", 0.631], ["2021-02-27", 0.635], ["2021-03-01", 0.635], ["2021-03-02", 0.636], ["2021-03-04", 0.636], ["2021-03-05", 0.636], ["2021-03-07", 0.639], ["2021-03-08", 0.638], ["2021-03-10", 0.631], ["2021-03-12", 0.631], ["2021-03-13", 0.631], ["2021-03-15", 0.634], ["2021-03-17", 0.634], ["2021-03-19", 0.633], ["2021-03-21", 0.634], ["2021-03-22", 0.634], ["2021-03-24", 0.637], ["2021-03-26", 0.639], ["2021-03-27", 0.64], ["2021-03-29", 0.641], ["2021-03-31", 0.641], ["2021-04-02", 0.643], ["2021-04-04", 0.643], ["2021-04-05", 0.643], ["2021-04-07", 0.643], ["2021-04-09", 0.644], ["2021-04-10", 0.644], ["2021-04-12", 0.646], ["2021-04-14", 0.645], ["2021-04-16", 0.639], ["2021-04-18", 0.637], ["2021-04-19", 0.637], ["2021-04-21", 0.636], ["2021-04-22", 0.634], ["2021-04-24", 0.634], ["2021-04-26", 0.635], ["2021-04-28", 0.637], ["2021-04-30", 0.637], ["2021-05-02", 0.636], ["2021-05-04", 0.643], ["2021-05-06", 0.666], ["2021-05-09", 0.667], ["2021-05-11", 0.672], ["2021-05-13", 0.674], ["2021-05-16", 0.679], ["2021-05-17", 0.681], ["2021-05-20", 0.709], ["2021-05-20", 0.713]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5730/
|
By most accounts, Joe Biden has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election, winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if "maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better." Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, "Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity."
According to the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker, presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?
Fine Print
The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period.
| true
|
2021-05-20
|
Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-02-07
|
2020-11-17
|
["https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/\u2026"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-20", 0.61], ["2020-11-20", 0.72], ["2020-11-20", 0.732], ["2020-11-21", 0.712], ["2020-11-21", 0.721], ["2020-11-21", 0.721], ["2020-11-22", 0.737], ["2020-11-22", 0.745], ["2020-11-23", 0.75], ["2020-11-23", 0.761], ["2020-11-24", 0.768], ["2020-11-24", 0.778], ["2020-11-24", 0.771], ["2020-11-25", 0.768], ["2020-11-25", 0.766], ["2020-11-25", 0.764], ["2020-11-25", 0.761], ["2020-11-26", 0.763], ["2020-11-27", 0.756], ["2020-11-27", 0.76], ["2020-11-27", 0.757], ["2020-11-27", 0.757], ["2020-11-28", 0.756], ["2020-11-28", 0.756], ["2020-11-30", 0.756], ["2020-11-30", 0.759], ["2020-12-01", 0.757], ["2020-12-01", 0.757], ["2020-12-02", 0.758], ["2020-12-02", 0.758], ["2020-12-03", 0.753], ["2020-12-03", 0.756], ["2020-12-03", 0.752], ["2020-12-04", 0.747], ["2020-12-04", 0.752], ["2020-12-04", 0.75], ["2020-12-05", 0.73], ["2020-12-05", 0.727], ["2020-12-05", 0.724], ["2020-12-06", 0.717], ["2020-12-06", 0.721], ["2020-12-06", 0.721], ["2020-12-07", 0.723], ["2020-12-07", 0.723], ["2020-12-07", 0.724], ["2020-12-08", 0.721], ["2020-12-08", 0.721], ["2020-12-09", 0.721], ["2020-12-09", 0.721], ["2020-12-10", 0.721], ["2020-12-10", 0.72], ["2020-12-11", 0.718], ["2020-12-11", 0.718], ["2020-12-12", 0.717], ["2020-12-13", 0.717], ["2020-12-14", 0.717], ["2020-12-15", 0.719], ["2020-12-15", 0.718], ["2020-12-16", 0.722], ["2020-12-16", 0.721], ["2020-12-16", 0.72], ["2020-12-17", 0.72], ["2020-12-17", 0.721], ["2020-12-18", 0.717], ["2020-12-18", 0.719], ["2020-12-19", 0.72], ["2020-12-19", 0.721], ["2020-12-20", 0.721], ["2020-12-20", 0.724], ["2020-12-20", 0.725], ["2020-12-21", 0.726], ["2020-12-21", 0.723], ["2020-12-21", 0.723], ["2020-12-22", 0.723], ["2020-12-23", 0.721], ["2020-12-23", 0.721], ["2020-12-23", 0.721], ["2020-12-26", 0.721], ["2020-12-26", 0.72], ["2020-12-26", 0.72], ["2020-12-26", 0.719], ["2020-12-28", 0.718], ["2020-12-28", 0.718], ["2020-12-29", 0.715], ["2020-12-30", 0.716], ["2020-12-30", 0.714], ["2020-12-30", 0.712], ["2020-12-31", 0.712], ["2020-12-31", 0.711], ["2021-01-01", 0.709], ["2021-01-01", 0.709], ["2021-01-01", 0.705], ["2021-01-02", 0.701], ["2021-01-02", 0.701], ["2021-01-02", 0.697], ["2021-01-03", 0.695], ["2021-01-03", 0.697], ["2021-01-03", 0.684], ["2021-01-04", 0.674], ["2021-01-04", 0.653], ["2021-01-05", 0.643]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5734/
|
From The New York Times,
As the dust settles from the presidential race, the eyes of the political world have already shifted to Georgia, where two runoff elections set for early January will almost certainly determine which party has control of the Senate.
The outcome of the contests, which will play out two weeks before President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s inauguration, will either swing the majority to Democrats, handing the new president broad power to carry out his policy agenda and push through nominations as he sees fit, or leave Republicans in charge, allowing them to influence his plans. [...]
Democrats would need to capture both of the seats in Georgia to secure a 50-50 tie in the Senate. Then, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris could cast tiebreaking votes to carry out the Democratic agenda. If they were to lose one, Republicans would maintain their majority, albeit by the slimmest of margins.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican on February 1st, 2020. You can find information on the Senate Majority Leader on [this page](https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/…
| true
|
2021-01-05
|
Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-13
|
2020-11-18
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-20", 0.04], ["2020-11-21", 0.204], ["2020-11-22", 0.225], ["2020-11-22", 0.253], ["2020-11-23", 0.246], ["2020-11-23", 0.231], ["2020-11-23", 0.249], ["2020-11-24", 0.229], ["2020-11-24", 0.232], ["2020-11-25", 0.233], ["2020-11-26", 0.225], ["2020-11-26", 0.221], ["2020-11-27", 0.244], ["2020-11-27", 0.256], ["2020-11-28", 0.256], ["2020-11-28", 0.253], ["2020-11-28", 0.25], ["2020-11-29", 0.25], ["2020-11-29", 0.248], ["2020-11-29", 0.25], ["2020-11-30", 0.251], ["2020-12-02", 0.249], ["2020-12-02", 0.243], ["2020-12-03", 0.243], ["2020-12-03", 0.246], ["2020-12-04", 0.246], ["2020-12-04", 0.245], ["2020-12-05", 0.244], ["2020-12-06", 0.244], ["2020-12-06", 0.244], ["2020-12-07", 0.245], ["2020-12-08", 0.24], ["2020-12-08", 0.239], ["2020-12-08", 0.239], ["2020-12-09", 0.237], ["2020-12-10", 0.236], ["2020-12-10", 0.234], ["2020-12-10", 0.232], ["2020-12-11", 0.232], ["2020-12-11", 0.233], ["2020-12-12", 0.231], ["2020-12-12", 0.231], ["2020-12-13", 0.234], ["2020-12-13", 0.236], ["2020-12-14", 0.238], ["2020-12-14", 0.239], ["2020-12-15", 0.24], ["2020-12-15", 0.24], ["2020-12-15", 0.247], ["2020-12-16", 0.247], ["2020-12-16", 0.243], ["2020-12-17", 0.244], ["2020-12-17", 0.245], ["2020-12-18", 0.245], ["2020-12-18", 0.258], ["2020-12-19", 0.262], ["2020-12-19", 0.258], ["2020-12-20", 0.264], ["2020-12-20", 0.273], ["2020-12-21", 0.308], ["2020-12-21", 0.336], ["2020-12-22", 0.356], ["2020-12-23", 0.383], ["2020-12-23", 0.391], ["2020-12-24", 0.429], ["2020-12-24", 0.433], ["2020-12-25", 0.438], ["2020-12-25", 0.436], ["2020-12-26", 0.439], ["2020-12-26", 0.439], ["2020-12-26", 0.441], ["2020-12-27", 0.449], ["2020-12-27", 0.453], ["2020-12-28", 0.457], ["2020-12-28", 0.457], ["2020-12-29", 0.471], ["2020-12-29", 0.479], ["2020-12-30", 0.487], ["2020-12-30", 0.513], ["2020-12-31", 0.537], ["2020-12-31", 0.555], ["2021-01-01", 0.587], ["2021-01-01", 0.609], ["2021-01-02", 0.623], ["2021-01-02", 0.632], ["2021-01-03", 0.63], ["2021-01-03", 0.636], ["2021-01-04", 0.647], ["2021-01-04", 0.669], ["2021-01-05", 0.673], ["2021-01-06", 0.689], ["2021-01-06", 0.699], ["2021-01-07", 0.725], ["2021-01-07", 0.744], ["2021-01-08", 0.748], ["2021-01-09", 0.774], ["2021-01-09", 0.792], ["2021-01-10", 0.796], ["2021-01-11", 0.806], ["2021-01-11", 0.809], ["2021-01-12", 0.81]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5746/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. Recently, the deathrate in the UK reached 200 cases/day, triggering the resolution of this question on whether there would be a second wave. A second question, on whether deaths would reach 450/day, looks almost certain to resolve positively in the next few days.
The UK government has implemented a month-long national lockdown, in an attempt to prevent deaths getting any worse.
During the first wave, daily deaths peaked at just over 900 deaths/day. This question asks:
Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day by the end of the second wave?
This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 7000.
The second wave will be determined to have ended if the 7-day moving average of deaths falls below 100 deaths/day for 14 consecutive days.
If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to ourworldindata.
Data updates meaning that more than 3000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).
This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. This is a departure from the time of retroactive closing in the previous two questions, as it became apparent that the best strategy was to predict >7 days into the future, even if the most likely outcome was resolution before then.
| true
|
2021-01-12
|
Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-01-06
|
2020-11-18
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-22", 0.5], ["2020-12-23", 0.4], ["2020-12-23", 0.4], ["2020-12-23", 0.4], ["2020-12-23", 0.5], ["2020-12-23", 0.498], ["2020-12-23", 0.498], ["2020-12-23", 0.479], ["2020-12-23", 0.455], ["2020-12-23", 0.459], ["2020-12-24", 0.422], ["2020-12-24", 0.39], ["2020-12-24", 0.373], ["2020-12-24", 0.363], ["2020-12-24", 0.375], ["2020-12-24", 0.364], ["2020-12-25", 0.364], ["2020-12-25", 0.379], ["2020-12-25", 0.379], ["2020-12-25", 0.379], ["2020-12-25", 0.379], ["2020-12-25", 0.371], ["2020-12-25", 0.374], ["2020-12-25", 0.368], ["2020-12-25", 0.368], ["2020-12-25", 0.381], ["2020-12-25", 0.381], ["2020-12-25", 0.378], ["2020-12-26", 0.378], ["2020-12-26", 0.38], ["2020-12-26", 0.38], ["2020-12-27", 0.392], ["2020-12-27", 0.392], ["2020-12-27", 0.395], ["2020-12-27", 0.397], ["2020-12-28", 0.399], ["2020-12-28", 0.397], ["2020-12-28", 0.397], ["2020-12-28", 0.403], ["2020-12-29", 0.4], ["2020-12-29", 0.4], ["2020-12-29", 0.423], ["2020-12-29", 0.425], ["2020-12-29", 0.425], ["2020-12-29", 0.429], ["2020-12-29", 0.429], ["2020-12-29", 0.421], ["2020-12-29", 0.423], ["2020-12-29", 0.423], ["2020-12-29", 0.438], ["2020-12-29", 0.441], ["2020-12-29", 0.449], ["2020-12-29", 0.449], ["2020-12-29", 0.44], ["2020-12-29", 0.447], ["2020-12-29", 0.453], ["2020-12-29", 0.453], ["2020-12-29", 0.465], ["2020-12-29", 0.47], ["2020-12-30", 0.468], ["2020-12-30", 0.469], ["2020-12-30", 0.468], ["2020-12-30", 0.461], ["2020-12-30", 0.464], ["2020-12-30", 0.464], ["2020-12-30", 0.458], ["2020-12-30", 0.458], ["2020-12-31", 0.454], ["2020-12-31", 0.454], ["2020-12-31", 0.454], ["2020-12-31", 0.456], ["2020-12-31", 0.456], ["2020-12-31", 0.454], ["2021-01-01", 0.454], ["2021-01-01", 0.454], ["2021-01-01", 0.453], ["2021-01-01", 0.453], ["2021-01-01", 0.453], ["2021-01-01", 0.454], ["2021-01-01", 0.454], ["2021-01-02", 0.463], ["2021-01-02", 0.466], ["2021-01-03", 0.459], ["2021-01-03", 0.464], ["2021-01-03", 0.464], ["2021-01-03", 0.474], ["2021-01-03", 0.472], ["2021-01-03", 0.472], ["2021-01-03", 0.473], ["2021-01-03", 0.473], ["2021-01-03", 0.473], ["2021-01-03", 0.473], ["2021-01-04", 0.473], ["2021-01-04", 0.473], ["2021-01-04", 0.478], ["2021-01-04", 0.478], ["2021-01-04", 0.478], ["2021-01-04", 0.478], ["2021-01-05", 0.477], ["2021-01-05", 0.478], ["2021-01-05", 0.478]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5747/
|
Since election day on November 3rd, 2020, a large portion of @realDonaldTrump's tweets have been marked by Twitter with messages such as "this claim about election fraud is disputed" and "multiple sources called this election differently."
|
Politics & Governance
|
For the purpose of this question, a Twitter account suspension is defined as at least one of:
An account is required to delete a Tweet before it's able to Tweet again
An account is unable to send Tweets
An account's Tweets cannot be viewed by on twitter.com by logged-out readers
An account's ability to send Tweet is rate-limited in a special manner
This question resolves positively if all of:
@realDonaldTrump and/or @POTUS is suspended (as defined above)
The suspension is based on alleged violation(s) of Twitter's Terms of Service
The suspension is intentional (not due to technical error)
The suspension is not due to a rogue employee
The suspension is not due to an account being hacked or at risk of being hacked
In case of positive resolution, this question is retroactively closed 24 hours before the suspension begins.
An official statement from Twitter is not required to resolve positively. However, an official statement from Twitter can prevent this question from resolving positively if it clearly states that the context of an account suspension does not meet the resolution criteria.
A previous question on the issue may be found here
| true
|
2021-02-01
|
By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-07-07
|
2020-11-19
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-22", 0.15], ["2020-12-23", 0.267], ["2020-12-25", 0.259], ["2020-12-26", 0.246], ["2020-12-28", 0.241], ["2020-12-31", 0.243], ["2021-01-01", 0.233], ["2021-01-03", 0.229], ["2021-01-04", 0.225], ["2021-01-05", 0.231], ["2021-01-07", 0.259], ["2021-01-08", 0.284], ["2021-01-10", 0.286], ["2021-01-11", 0.285], ["2021-01-13", 0.282], ["2021-01-15", 0.284], ["2021-01-17", 0.285], ["2021-01-19", 0.285], ["2021-01-21", 0.291], ["2021-01-23", 0.323], ["2021-01-25", 0.331], ["2021-01-26", 0.342], ["2021-01-28", 0.342], ["2021-01-29", 0.342], ["2021-01-31", 0.343], ["2021-02-01", 0.351], ["2021-02-02", 0.427], ["2021-02-05", 0.436], ["2021-02-06", 0.439], ["2021-02-07", 0.445], ["2021-02-09", 0.453], ["2021-02-11", 0.459], ["2021-02-13", 0.464], ["2021-02-15", 0.475], ["2021-02-16", 0.475], ["2021-02-18", 0.476], ["2021-02-20", 0.478], ["2021-02-22", 0.478], ["2021-02-23", 0.479], ["2021-02-24", 0.479], ["2021-02-26", 0.48], ["2021-02-27", 0.477], ["2021-03-01", 0.477], ["2021-03-02", 0.48], ["2021-03-04", 0.483], ["2021-03-06", 0.489], ["2021-03-08", 0.489], ["2021-03-09", 0.489], ["2021-03-11", 0.492], ["2021-03-12", 0.488], ["2021-03-13", 0.488], ["2021-03-15", 0.502], ["2021-03-16", 0.502], ["2021-03-19", 0.502], ["2021-03-19", 0.502], ["2021-03-24", 0.503], ["2021-03-28", 0.503], ["2021-03-30", 0.506], ["2021-03-31", 0.509], ["2021-04-03", 0.51], ["2021-04-04", 0.511], ["2021-04-06", 0.511], ["2021-04-08", 0.511], ["2021-04-10", 0.512], ["2021-04-12", 0.514], ["2021-04-13", 0.514], ["2021-04-16", 0.514], ["2021-04-17", 0.517], ["2021-04-19", 0.517], ["2021-04-21", 0.517], ["2021-04-22", 0.512], ["2021-04-24", 0.512], ["2021-04-27", 0.512], ["2021-04-28", 0.512], ["2021-04-29", 0.511], ["2021-05-01", 0.511], ["2021-05-02", 0.509], ["2021-05-05", 0.509], ["2021-05-07", 0.509], ["2021-05-11", 0.508], ["2021-05-12", 0.507], ["2021-05-20", 0.507], ["2021-05-21", 0.507], ["2021-05-23", 0.507], ["2021-05-24", 0.503], ["2021-05-26", 0.503], ["2021-05-28", 0.501], ["2021-05-30", 0.503], ["2021-05-31", 0.496], ["2021-06-01", 0.495], ["2021-06-03", 0.491], ["2021-06-13", 0.49], ["2021-06-15", 0.494], ["2021-06-17", 0.497], ["2021-06-17", 0.493], ["2021-06-20", 0.493], ["2021-06-22", 0.486], ["2021-06-24", 0.484], ["2021-06-26", 0.485], ["2021-06-28", 0.48], ["2021-06-30", 0.484]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5749/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming. This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a briefing on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.
This question asks:
Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.
If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.
2 February clarification: A "significant reduction in immunity" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials. Such data should be presented in a published paper.
| true
|
2021-06-30
|
Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-01-06
|
2020-11-19
|
["https://isthisacoup.com/", "https://isthisacoup.com/", "https://isthisacoup.com/."]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-21", 0.87], ["2020-11-21", 0.531], ["2020-11-21", 0.396], ["2020-11-22", 0.376], ["2020-11-22", 0.385], ["2020-11-22", 0.371], ["2020-11-22", 0.371], ["2020-11-22", 0.36], ["2020-11-23", 0.35], ["2020-11-23", 0.356], ["2020-11-24", 0.354], ["2020-11-24", 0.318], ["2020-11-24", 0.299], ["2020-11-24", 0.295], ["2020-11-24", 0.29], ["2020-11-25", 0.292], ["2020-11-25", 0.29], ["2020-11-26", 0.276], ["2020-11-26", 0.267], ["2020-11-26", 0.257], ["2020-11-26", 0.24], ["2020-11-26", 0.24], ["2020-11-27", 0.238], ["2020-11-27", 0.235], ["2020-11-27", 0.219], ["2020-11-27", 0.217], ["2020-11-28", 0.216], ["2020-11-29", 0.216], ["2020-11-29", 0.214], ["2020-11-30", 0.21], ["2020-11-30", 0.208], ["2020-12-01", 0.208], ["2020-12-02", 0.207], ["2020-12-02", 0.205], ["2020-12-02", 0.203], ["2020-12-02", 0.199], ["2020-12-03", 0.192], ["2020-12-03", 0.183], ["2020-12-03", 0.179], ["2020-12-04", 0.178], ["2020-12-04", 0.177], ["2020-12-05", 0.176], ["2020-12-05", 0.176], ["2020-12-05", 0.176], ["2020-12-08", 0.173], ["2020-12-08", 0.172], ["2020-12-08", 0.17], ["2020-12-08", 0.17], ["2020-12-09", 0.17], ["2020-12-11", 0.171], ["2020-12-11", 0.17], ["2020-12-14", 0.169], ["2020-12-15", 0.167], ["2020-12-15", 0.166], ["2020-12-15", 0.165], ["2020-12-15", 0.165], ["2020-12-16", 0.164], ["2020-12-17", 0.163], ["2020-12-17", 0.163], ["2020-12-18", 0.163], ["2020-12-18", 0.16], ["2020-12-19", 0.156], ["2020-12-19", 0.156], ["2020-12-19", 0.154], ["2020-12-19", 0.155], ["2020-12-20", 0.155], ["2020-12-20", 0.161], ["2020-12-21", 0.16], ["2020-12-21", 0.16], ["2020-12-21", 0.165], ["2020-12-21", 0.165], ["2020-12-22", 0.165], ["2020-12-22", 0.167], ["2020-12-23", 0.171], ["2020-12-24", 0.171], ["2020-12-24", 0.171], ["2020-12-24", 0.171], ["2020-12-24", 0.17], ["2020-12-24", 0.172], ["2020-12-25", 0.172], ["2020-12-25", 0.174], ["2020-12-26", 0.173], ["2020-12-26", 0.173], ["2020-12-26", 0.17], ["2020-12-27", 0.169], ["2020-12-27", 0.169], ["2020-12-27", 0.167], ["2020-12-28", 0.163], ["2020-12-28", 0.163], ["2020-12-28", 0.163], ["2020-12-28", 0.163], ["2020-12-28", 0.163], ["2020-12-29", 0.163], ["2020-12-30", 0.162], ["2020-12-30", 0.162], ["2020-12-30", 0.162], ["2020-12-31", 0.16], ["2020-12-31", 0.156], ["2020-12-31", 0.15], ["2021-01-01", 0.15], ["2021-01-01", 0.149]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5752/
|
A coup is,
the removal of an existing government from power, usually through violent means.
https://isthisacoup.com/ monitors recent news events to place the current political situation in the United States on a scale from "Democracy" to "Coup." As of the writing of this question, the Coup-o-meter is solidly within the "Preparing for a coup" territory. Will it enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st, 2021?
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if at some point before February 1st 2021, the Coup-o-meter on https://isthisacoup.com/ reveals that we have entered "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory. Resolution will be determined either by credible media, or via an archive of https://isthisacoup.com/. See this image to understand which notches on the Coup-o-meter I'm referring to.
Whether the US is actually experiencing a coup is immaterial to the resolution of this question, except for the effect it has on the Coup-o-meter.
| true
|
2021-01-01
|
Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-01-13
|
2020-11-22
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-11-26", 0.345], ["2020-11-26", 0.247], ["2020-11-26", 0.3], ["2020-11-26", 0.364], ["2020-11-27", 0.348], ["2020-11-27", 0.363], ["2020-11-27", 0.369], ["2020-11-28", 0.373], ["2020-11-29", 0.396], ["2020-11-29", 0.398], ["2020-11-29", 0.399], ["2020-11-30", 0.4], ["2020-11-30", 0.405], ["2020-11-30", 0.412], ["2020-11-30", 0.416], ["2020-12-01", 0.417], ["2020-12-01", 0.425], ["2020-12-01", 0.43], ["2020-12-02", 0.438], ["2020-12-02", 0.438], ["2020-12-02", 0.44], ["2020-12-03", 0.438], ["2020-12-03", 0.445], ["2020-12-03", 0.446], ["2020-12-03", 0.447], ["2020-12-04", 0.448], ["2020-12-05", 0.447], ["2020-12-06", 0.447], ["2020-12-06", 0.449], ["2020-12-06", 0.455], ["2020-12-07", 0.455], ["2020-12-08", 0.457], ["2020-12-09", 0.479], ["2020-12-09", 0.486], ["2020-12-09", 0.486], ["2020-12-10", 0.561], ["2020-12-10", 0.561], ["2020-12-10", 0.569], ["2020-12-10", 0.569], ["2020-12-11", 0.57], ["2020-12-11", 0.575], ["2020-12-11", 0.647], ["2020-12-12", 0.696], ["2020-12-12", 0.715], ["2020-12-12", 0.717], ["2020-12-12", 0.724], ["2020-12-13", 0.724], ["2020-12-14", 0.729], ["2020-12-15", 0.729], ["2020-12-16", 0.73], ["2020-12-16", 0.732], ["2020-12-16", 0.73], ["2020-12-18", 0.733], ["2020-12-18", 0.732], ["2020-12-19", 0.731], ["2020-12-19", 0.735], ["2020-12-20", 0.735], ["2020-12-21", 0.734], ["2020-12-21", 0.734], ["2020-12-21", 0.738], ["2020-12-22", 0.738], ["2020-12-22", 0.745], ["2020-12-23", 0.747], ["2020-12-23", 0.749], ["2020-12-23", 0.753], ["2020-12-24", 0.797], ["2020-12-24", 0.798], ["2020-12-24", 0.802], ["2020-12-24", 0.819], ["2020-12-25", 0.824], ["2020-12-26", 0.826], ["2020-12-26", 0.829], ["2020-12-28", 0.831], ["2020-12-28", 0.831], ["2020-12-29", 0.832], ["2020-12-30", 0.832], ["2020-12-30", 0.833], ["2020-12-30", 0.832], ["2020-12-30", 0.835], ["2020-12-31", 0.841], ["2020-12-31", 0.841], ["2020-12-31", 0.849], ["2021-01-01", 0.857], ["2021-01-01", 0.857], ["2021-01-01", 0.86], ["2021-01-02", 0.86], ["2021-01-03", 0.862], ["2021-01-04", 0.865], ["2021-01-04", 0.865], ["2021-01-05", 0.865], ["2021-01-07", 0.867], ["2021-01-07", 0.868], ["2021-01-08", 0.868], ["2021-01-09", 0.87], ["2021-01-09", 0.87], ["2021-01-10", 0.871], ["2021-01-10", 0.871], ["2021-01-11", 0.871], ["2021-01-12", 0.872], ["2021-01-12", 0.872], ["2021-01-13", 0.873]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5766/
|
Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.
New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. Yang has confirmed that he is actively considering a bid.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Will Andrew Yang declare his intention to run for Mayor in the 2021 New York City municipal Democratic primary election?
Fine Print
This question resolves positively if Andrew Yang states clearly that he will run for Mayor of New York before the Democratic primary filing deadline on April 26th. It resolves negatively if this date passes without such a statement, if Yang runs as in independent or under another party, or if Yang states clearly that he will not be running. Resolution should be supported by credible media reports.
| true
|
2021-03-15
|
Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-11-16
|
2020-11-30
|
["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/#comment-56239", "https://twitter.com/SenLouiseLucas/status/1597434520168329216?t=HHymFBUhdnZKC-3vWWU23w&s=19", "https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1595269373350105088?t=tcccS507F2MSQ4ph7IGNEw&s=19", "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-we-saw-red-and-blue-mirages-on-election-night/", "https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats", "https://twitter.com/jrpsaki/status/1582340497720213505?t=qskhquSXavW3Q9MrUETIeQ&s=09", "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/17/upshot/times-siena-poll-likely-voters-crosstabs.html", "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/", "https://www.newsweek.com/nancy-pelosi-booed-she-takes-stage-new-york-city-event-video-1746106", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/26/pollsters-fear-elections-2024-00058506", "https://aapor.org/AAPOR_Main/media/MainSiteFiles/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL_embargo.pdf", "https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1573406491427704832", "https://apnews.com/article/politics-ap-top-news-donald-trump-economy-north-america-863dbb1db71948e5801b990fb1f73e3e", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/#comment-101041", "https://www.politicalcompass.org/pdfcertificate?pname=Daveinsea&ec=-2.13&soc=-4.67", "https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/", "https://www.newsweek.com/chuck-schumer-nancy-pelosi-house-democrats-midterm-elections-trouble-comments-1743300", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11590/us-congress-control-after-2022-midterms/?sub-question=8971", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1551616434987536384"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-03", 0.75], ["2020-12-10", 0.444], ["2020-12-18", 0.45], ["2020-12-25", 0.451], ["2020-12-30", 0.468], ["2021-01-06", 0.451], ["2021-01-13", 0.451], ["2021-01-17", 0.464], ["2021-01-23", 0.466], ["2021-01-31", 0.466], ["2021-02-08", 0.456], ["2021-02-18", 0.492], ["2021-02-26", 0.506], ["2021-03-10", 0.504], ["2021-03-16", 0.505], ["2021-03-24", 0.504], ["2021-04-01", 0.504], ["2021-04-07", 0.505], ["2021-04-11", 0.508], ["2021-04-17", 0.508], ["2021-04-30", 0.51], ["2021-05-03", 0.512], ["2021-05-13", 0.512], ["2021-05-19", 0.517], ["2021-05-25", 0.52], ["2021-06-03", 0.521], ["2021-06-11", 0.524], ["2021-06-15", 0.531], ["2021-06-22", 0.532], ["2021-06-28", 0.532], ["2021-07-04", 0.539], ["2021-07-07", 0.54], ["2021-07-20", 0.54], ["2021-07-25", 0.541], ["2021-08-04", 0.542], ["2021-08-10", 0.543], ["2021-08-15", 0.549], ["2021-08-21", 0.549], ["2021-08-25", 0.552], ["2021-08-31", 0.553], ["2021-09-08", 0.555], ["2021-09-16", 0.556], ["2021-09-23", 0.559], ["2021-10-12", 0.56], ["2021-10-18", 0.56], ["2021-10-30", 0.56], ["2021-11-03", 0.56], ["2021-11-09", 0.593], ["2021-11-16", 0.605], ["2021-11-21", 0.607], ["2021-11-29", 0.62], ["2021-12-07", 0.63], ["2021-12-13", 0.634], ["2021-12-21", 0.636], ["2021-12-27", 0.649], ["2022-01-06", 0.661], ["2022-01-13", 0.662], ["2022-01-18", 0.664], ["2022-01-27", 0.668], ["2022-02-01", 0.67], ["2022-02-07", 0.671], ["2022-02-16", 0.672], ["2022-02-21", 0.673], ["2022-02-26", 0.678], ["2022-03-07", 0.689], ["2022-03-12", 0.692], ["2022-03-18", 0.694], ["2022-03-24", 0.695], ["2022-03-29", 0.697], ["2022-04-04", 0.698], ["2022-04-09", 0.702], ["2022-04-15", 0.704], ["2022-04-20", 0.704], ["2022-04-27", 0.703], ["2022-05-03", 0.705], ["2022-05-09", 0.706], ["2022-05-16", 0.707], ["2022-05-21", 0.706], ["2022-05-28", 0.707], ["2022-06-01", 0.708], ["2022-06-07", 0.709], ["2022-06-14", 0.71], ["2022-06-21", 0.732], ["2022-06-27", 0.733], ["2022-07-04", 0.738], ["2022-07-11", 0.738], ["2022-07-18", 0.74], ["2022-07-26", 0.744], ["2022-08-01", 0.746], ["2022-08-08", 0.744], ["2022-08-16", 0.742], ["2022-08-24", 0.741], ["2022-09-01", 0.74], ["2022-09-09", 0.735], ["2022-09-18", 0.73], ["2022-09-27", 0.726], ["2022-10-04", 0.723], ["2022-10-13", 0.724], ["2022-10-23", 0.732], ["2022-11-01", 0.743], ["2022-11-08", 0.766]]
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https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5814/
|
Related questions on Metaculus:
Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?
Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?
How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?
In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.
If Republicans win 218 seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house.
435 seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.
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Politics & Governance
|
This question will resolve as Yes if Republicans^ win more than 50% of seats in the US House following the 2022 elections. If Democrats^ win more than 50% of seats, this question will resolve as No. If neither of these parties win more than 50% seats (e.g. an unaligned third party wins seats), then this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
Fine Print
.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.
| true
|
2022-11-08
|
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-03-13
|
2020-12-01
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-12", 0.175], ["2020-12-12", 0.25], ["2020-12-12", 0.417], ["2020-12-12", 0.35], ["2020-12-13", 0.325], ["2020-12-13", 0.402], ["2020-12-13", 0.402], ["2020-12-13", 0.437], ["2020-12-13", 0.396], ["2020-12-14", 0.377], ["2020-12-15", 0.363], ["2020-12-15", 0.352], ["2020-12-15", 0.362], ["2020-12-19", 0.361], ["2020-12-19", 0.361], ["2020-12-19", 0.349], ["2020-12-19", 0.349], ["2020-12-19", 0.333], ["2020-12-20", 0.333], ["2020-12-23", 0.331], ["2020-12-24", 0.292], ["2020-12-25", 0.295], ["2020-12-27", 0.295], ["2020-12-28", 0.293], ["2020-12-28", 0.293], ["2021-01-01", 0.293], ["2021-01-04", 0.303], ["2021-01-04", 0.303], ["2021-01-13", 0.318], ["2021-01-13", 0.321], ["2021-01-13", 0.321], ["2021-01-16", 0.323], ["2021-01-17", 0.327], ["2021-01-17", 0.327], ["2021-01-20", 0.328], ["2021-01-22", 0.333], ["2021-01-22", 0.333], ["2021-01-31", 0.337], ["2021-02-02", 0.338], ["2021-02-03", 0.338], ["2021-02-09", 0.339], ["2021-02-09", 0.339], ["2021-02-09", 0.332], ["2021-02-10", 0.332], ["2021-02-12", 0.338], ["2021-02-12", 0.338], ["2021-02-13", 0.345], ["2021-02-13", 0.347], ["2021-02-14", 0.351], ["2021-02-14", 0.351], ["2021-02-15", 0.351], ["2021-02-16", 0.357], ["2021-02-16", 0.356], ["2021-02-16", 0.358], ["2021-02-16", 0.362], ["2021-02-16", 0.362], ["2021-02-16", 0.365], ["2021-02-16", 0.365], ["2021-02-16", 0.365], ["2021-02-17", 0.365], ["2021-02-17", 0.37], ["2021-02-17", 0.37], ["2021-02-18", 0.372], ["2021-02-18", 0.374], ["2021-02-21", 0.375], ["2021-02-21", 0.373], ["2021-02-21", 0.372], ["2021-02-21", 0.372], ["2021-02-22", 0.371], ["2021-02-22", 0.371], ["2021-02-23", 0.373], ["2021-02-23", 0.373], ["2021-02-23", 0.373], ["2021-02-23", 0.373], ["2021-02-23", 0.374], ["2021-02-23", 0.376], ["2021-02-24", 0.376], ["2021-02-24", 0.376], ["2021-02-24", 0.383], ["2021-02-24", 0.383], ["2021-02-24", 0.383], ["2021-02-24", 0.383], ["2021-02-24", 0.382], ["2021-02-24", 0.386], ["2021-02-25", 0.386], ["2021-02-25", 0.386], ["2021-02-25", 0.388], ["2021-02-25", 0.388], ["2021-02-26", 0.391], ["2021-02-26", 0.392], ["2021-02-26", 0.392], ["2021-02-26", 0.394], ["2021-02-26", 0.396], ["2021-02-26", 0.4], ["2021-02-27", 0.4], ["2021-02-27", 0.4], ["2021-02-27", 0.405], ["2021-02-27", 0.405], ["2021-02-27", 0.405], ["2021-02-27", 0.413], ["2021-02-27", 0.414]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5819/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
The term of the current Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will come to an end on 30 June 2021. Nominations are open for candidates to become the next Secretary-General, with nominations having closed on the 1st of November. The decision is expected by 1 March 2021 at the latest.
Mathias Cormann announced he was stepping down as Finance Minister of Australia in order to run for the position of Secretary-General. Cormann faces nine competitors. In his favour is the US and EU being apparently reluctant to support the other's candidate but working against him is the Australian Government's poor record on climate change.
Bipartisan support within Australia is likely needed for Cormann to have a chance. The Coalition torpedoed former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's bid to become UN Secretary-General, but the Labor Party has said they will support Cormann's bid.
Australia has provided Cormann with flights on an Air Force plane to help his bid.
Will Mathias Cormann become the next Secretary-General of the OECD?
Question resolves positive on an official statement by the OECD that Mathias Cormann is appointed the next Secretary-General.
If the term of the current Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría Treviño is shortened or extended for any reason, this will resolve positive if Mathias Cormann is the next elected Secretary-General of the OECD.
If for some reason Gurría does not complete his term, selection of an acting Secretary-General will not result in this question resolving negative.
| true
|
2021-02-27
|
Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2020-12-15
|
2020-12-01
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-01", 0.1], ["2020-12-01", 0.242], ["2020-12-01", 0.183], ["2020-12-01", 0.175], ["2020-12-01", 0.181], ["2020-12-01", 0.182], ["2020-12-01", 0.187], ["2020-12-01", 0.182], ["2020-12-01", 0.169], ["2020-12-01", 0.163], ["2020-12-01", 0.154], ["2020-12-01", 0.151], ["2020-12-01", 0.151], ["2020-12-01", 0.145], ["2020-12-01", 0.145], ["2020-12-01", 0.147], ["2020-12-02", 0.144], ["2020-12-02", 0.142], ["2020-12-02", 0.142], ["2020-12-02", 0.148], ["2020-12-02", 0.148], ["2020-12-02", 0.158], ["2020-12-02", 0.157], ["2020-12-02", 0.155], ["2020-12-02", 0.153], ["2020-12-02", 0.149], ["2020-12-02", 0.145], ["2020-12-02", 0.144], ["2020-12-02", 0.144], ["2020-12-02", 0.139], ["2020-12-02", 0.143], ["2020-12-02", 0.135], ["2020-12-02", 0.135], ["2020-12-02", 0.132], ["2020-12-02", 0.129], ["2020-12-03", 0.126], ["2020-12-03", 0.126], ["2020-12-03", 0.127], ["2020-12-03", 0.124], ["2020-12-03", 0.124], ["2020-12-03", 0.122], ["2020-12-03", 0.126], ["2020-12-03", 0.124], ["2020-12-03", 0.124], ["2020-12-03", 0.124], ["2020-12-03", 0.123], ["2020-12-03", 0.121], ["2020-12-03", 0.119], ["2020-12-03", 0.117], ["2020-12-03", 0.115], ["2020-12-04", 0.115], ["2020-12-04", 0.117], ["2020-12-04", 0.116], ["2020-12-04", 0.114], ["2020-12-04", 0.114], ["2020-12-04", 0.111], ["2020-12-04", 0.111], ["2020-12-04", 0.12], ["2020-12-04", 0.12], ["2020-12-04", 0.12], ["2020-12-05", 0.118], ["2020-12-05", 0.118], ["2020-12-05", 0.118], ["2020-12-05", 0.116], ["2020-12-05", 0.116], ["2020-12-05", 0.109], ["2020-12-06", 0.11], ["2020-12-06", 0.11], ["2020-12-06", 0.106], ["2020-12-06", 0.106], ["2020-12-07", 0.105], ["2020-12-07", 0.104], ["2020-12-07", 0.104], ["2020-12-08", 0.101], ["2020-12-08", 0.101], ["2020-12-08", 0.101], ["2020-12-08", 0.098], ["2020-12-08", 0.097], ["2020-12-09", 0.095], ["2020-12-09", 0.093], ["2020-12-09", 0.091], ["2020-12-09", 0.091], ["2020-12-09", 0.083], ["2020-12-09", 0.083], ["2020-12-09", 0.074], ["2020-12-09", 0.074], ["2020-12-09", 0.073], ["2020-12-09", 0.071], ["2020-12-09", 0.068], ["2020-12-09", 0.067], ["2020-12-09", 0.065], ["2020-12-09", 0.063], ["2020-12-09", 0.063], ["2020-12-09", 0.064], ["2020-12-09", 0.064], ["2020-12-10", 0.064], ["2020-12-10", 0.064], ["2020-12-10", 0.062], ["2020-12-10", 0.061], ["2020-12-10", 0.061], ["2020-12-10", 0.06]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5820/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Economics & Business
|
A few Effective Altruist organisations have launched a campaign asking VISA to waive card processing fees on donations to registered charities. More details about the campaign, including a link to a petition, can be found here.
This question asks:
[Short Fuse] Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed in getting VISA to significantly reduce fees for charitable donations?
The campaign will be deemed to have "succeeded" if, by 15 December, VISA has publicly announced that there will be a reduction in fees of at least 50% for charitable donations. Note that the request is for fees to be completely eliminated, however a substantial reduction is still a "win" in a meaningful sense.
A statement by an official VISA channel, including social media platforms, for example @VISA, will be sufficient for resolution.
| true
|
2020-12-10
|
Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-20
|
2020-12-01
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-05", 0.2], ["2020-12-06", 0.185], ["2020-12-06", 0.206], ["2020-12-06", 0.198], ["2020-12-07", 0.207], ["2020-12-07", 0.216], ["2020-12-07", 0.204], ["2020-12-08", 0.194], ["2020-12-08", 0.198], ["2020-12-09", 0.19], ["2020-12-09", 0.185], ["2020-12-10", 0.173], ["2020-12-10", 0.168], ["2020-12-10", 0.164], ["2020-12-11", 0.159], ["2020-12-12", 0.153], ["2020-12-12", 0.156], ["2020-12-13", 0.148], ["2020-12-14", 0.145], ["2020-12-14", 0.141], ["2020-12-15", 0.138], ["2020-12-15", 0.141], ["2020-12-17", 0.141], ["2020-12-17", 0.139], ["2020-12-18", 0.133], ["2020-12-18", 0.131], ["2020-12-19", 0.129], ["2020-12-19", 0.127], ["2020-12-20", 0.127], ["2020-12-20", 0.126], ["2020-12-21", 0.126], ["2020-12-21", 0.123], ["2020-12-21", 0.127], ["2020-12-22", 0.138], ["2020-12-22", 0.13], ["2020-12-23", 0.131], ["2020-12-23", 0.134], ["2020-12-26", 0.133], ["2020-12-26", 0.133], ["2020-12-27", 0.129], ["2020-12-28", 0.128], ["2020-12-28", 0.127], ["2020-12-28", 0.131], ["2020-12-29", 0.132], ["2020-12-29", 0.132], ["2020-12-29", 0.137], ["2020-12-30", 0.142], ["2020-12-30", 0.136], ["2020-12-31", 0.134], ["2020-12-31", 0.133], ["2021-01-01", 0.135], ["2021-01-01", 0.133], ["2021-01-02", 0.14], ["2021-01-02", 0.141], ["2021-01-03", 0.141], ["2021-01-03", 0.14], ["2021-01-03", 0.133], ["2021-01-04", 0.136], ["2021-01-04", 0.144], ["2021-01-04", 0.144], ["2021-01-05", 0.14], ["2021-01-05", 0.135], ["2021-01-05", 0.129], ["2021-01-06", 0.125], ["2021-01-06", 0.122], ["2021-01-06", 0.121], ["2021-01-07", 0.116], ["2021-01-07", 0.122], ["2021-01-08", 0.13], ["2021-01-08", 0.131], ["2021-01-08", 0.111], ["2021-01-08", 0.09], ["2021-01-09", 0.088], ["2021-01-09", 0.082], ["2021-01-09", 0.082], ["2021-01-10", 0.082], ["2021-01-10", 0.081], ["2021-01-10", 0.084], ["2021-01-10", 0.085], ["2021-01-11", 0.082], ["2021-01-11", 0.083], ["2021-01-12", 0.079], ["2021-01-12", 0.08], ["2021-01-12", 0.079], ["2021-01-13", 0.079], ["2021-01-13", 0.079], ["2021-01-14", 0.078], ["2021-01-14", 0.078], ["2021-01-14", 0.078], ["2021-01-15", 0.077], ["2021-01-15", 0.077], ["2021-01-15", 0.076], ["2021-01-16", 0.075], ["2021-01-16", 0.075], ["2021-01-17", 0.074], ["2021-01-17", 0.074], ["2021-01-18", 0.074], ["2021-01-18", 0.069], ["2021-01-19", 0.065], ["2021-01-19", 0.064], ["2021-01-19", 0.064]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5825/
|
The inauguration of the president of the United States is a ceremony to mark the commencement of a new four-year term of the president of the United States. As the new President-elect, Joe Biden is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 Jan 2021.
After much speculation that she wouldn't, Hillary Clinton did attend Trump's inauguration, as is the tradition. Only three incumbent presidents have refused to attend the inauguration of the President-elect - John Adams, John Quincy Adams, and Andrew Johnson.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves "yes" if Trump attends a public event where Biden is sworn in as president, "no" if Trump does not attend.
This question resolves ambiguous if such an event does not occur by the end of 1 February 2021.
Fine Print
For positive resolution, Trump must be (a) within 800 meters of Joe Biden (b) for at least 80% of the entire inauguration ceremony and (c) is not hosting an alternative event or giving a speech for any amount of time that is contemporaneous with the inauguration ceremony.
The time period of "inauguration ceremony" refers to Biden's swearing in, plus the thirty minutes prior and thirty minutes after, or just the thirty minutes prior if there are not at least thirty minutes after, or just the thirty minutes after if there are not at least thirty minutes prior.
| true
|
2021-01-19
|
Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-01-02
|
2020-12-01
|
["https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-05", 0.15], ["2020-12-09", 0.393], ["2020-12-11", 0.396], ["2020-12-14", 0.391], ["2020-12-17", 0.387], ["2020-12-21", 0.333], ["2020-12-23", 0.332], ["2020-12-26", 0.331], ["2020-12-29", 0.324], ["2021-01-01", 0.321], ["2021-01-03", 0.323], ["2021-01-06", 0.327], ["2021-01-10", 0.318], ["2021-01-13", 0.321], ["2021-01-14", 0.32], ["2021-01-17", 0.322], ["2021-01-19", 0.321], ["2021-01-22", 0.323], ["2021-01-26", 0.313], ["2021-01-28", 0.312], ["2021-01-31", 0.302], ["2021-02-02", 0.301], ["2021-02-05", 0.303], ["2021-02-07", 0.303], ["2021-02-09", 0.298], ["2021-02-11", 0.297], ["2021-02-15", 0.294], ["2021-02-17", 0.286], ["2021-02-21", 0.276], ["2021-02-24", 0.275], ["2021-02-28", 0.273], ["2021-03-02", 0.272], ["2021-03-05", 0.273], ["2021-03-08", 0.272], ["2021-03-10", 0.272], ["2021-03-13", 0.254], ["2021-03-16", 0.249], ["2021-03-18", 0.248], ["2021-03-22", 0.247], ["2021-03-24", 0.247], ["2021-03-27", 0.246], ["2021-03-29", 0.246], ["2021-04-02", 0.245], ["2021-04-05", 0.244], ["2021-04-08", 0.244], ["2021-04-10", 0.242], ["2021-04-13", 0.241], ["2021-04-16", 0.241], ["2021-04-18", 0.241], ["2021-04-21", 0.241], ["2021-04-23", 0.241], ["2021-04-26", 0.239], ["2021-04-29", 0.24], ["2021-05-02", 0.239], ["2021-05-04", 0.237], ["2021-05-08", 0.236], ["2021-05-10", 0.236], ["2021-05-14", 0.234], ["2021-05-16", 0.234], ["2021-05-18", 0.233], ["2021-05-20", 0.233], ["2021-05-23", 0.234], ["2021-05-27", 0.233], ["2021-05-30", 0.234], ["2021-06-01", 0.233], ["2021-06-03", 0.233], ["2021-06-06", 0.233], ["2021-06-09", 0.233], ["2021-06-11", 0.234], ["2021-06-13", 0.234], ["2021-06-16", 0.234], ["2021-06-19", 0.234], ["2021-06-22", 0.234], ["2021-06-24", 0.234], ["2021-06-27", 0.234], ["2021-06-30", 0.234], ["2021-07-03", 0.233], ["2021-07-06", 0.233], ["2021-07-08", 0.232], ["2021-07-11", 0.233], ["2021-07-14", 0.233], ["2021-07-17", 0.232], ["2021-07-20", 0.231], ["2021-07-23", 0.227], ["2021-07-26", 0.226], ["2021-07-28", 0.224], ["2021-07-31", 0.224], ["2021-08-03", 0.223], ["2021-08-06", 0.224], ["2021-08-09", 0.224], ["2021-08-12", 0.223], ["2021-08-16", 0.222], ["2021-08-20", 0.214], ["2021-08-23", 0.212], ["2021-08-25", 0.21], ["2021-08-28", 0.21], ["2021-09-01", 0.21], ["2021-09-04", 0.209], ["2021-09-08", 0.207], ["2021-09-12", 0.204], ["2021-09-14", 0.175]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5826/
|
The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, it crashed to below $7K within five months. Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?
|
Economics & Business
|
This question resolves "Yes" if the bitcoin price on coinmarketcap.com drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves "No" otherwise.
If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.
Fine Print
The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.
If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves "No".
If coinmarketcap.com ceases to reliably record prices, https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous.
| true
|
2021-09-14
|
Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-06
|
2020-12-03
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-10", 0.5], ["2020-12-10", 0.67], ["2020-12-11", 0.703], ["2020-12-11", 0.689], ["2020-12-11", 0.677], ["2020-12-11", 0.683], ["2020-12-11", 0.673], ["2020-12-11", 0.671], ["2020-12-12", 0.658], ["2020-12-12", 0.657], ["2020-12-12", 0.653], ["2020-12-12", 0.658], ["2020-12-13", 0.658], ["2020-12-13", 0.664], ["2020-12-13", 0.669], ["2020-12-13", 0.669], ["2020-12-14", 0.663], ["2020-12-14", 0.664], ["2020-12-15", 0.679], ["2020-12-15", 0.69], ["2020-12-15", 0.686], ["2020-12-15", 0.695], ["2020-12-16", 0.659], ["2020-12-16", 0.597], ["2020-12-16", 0.585], ["2020-12-16", 0.579], ["2020-12-16", 0.566], ["2020-12-16", 0.54], ["2020-12-17", 0.53], ["2020-12-17", 0.521], ["2020-12-17", 0.52], ["2020-12-17", 0.522], ["2020-12-18", 0.527], ["2020-12-18", 0.529], ["2020-12-18", 0.521], ["2020-12-18", 0.523], ["2020-12-19", 0.528], ["2020-12-19", 0.532], ["2020-12-19", 0.532], ["2020-12-19", 0.535], ["2020-12-19", 0.534], ["2020-12-20", 0.537], ["2020-12-20", 0.536], ["2020-12-20", 0.537], ["2020-12-20", 0.537], ["2020-12-21", 0.537], ["2020-12-22", 0.536], ["2020-12-22", 0.535], ["2020-12-22", 0.534], ["2020-12-23", 0.535], ["2020-12-23", 0.536], ["2020-12-24", 0.534], ["2020-12-25", 0.534], ["2020-12-25", 0.534], ["2020-12-26", 0.534], ["2020-12-26", 0.535], ["2020-12-26", 0.535], ["2020-12-26", 0.536], ["2020-12-26", 0.536], ["2020-12-27", 0.54], ["2020-12-28", 0.54], ["2020-12-28", 0.541], ["2020-12-28", 0.542], ["2020-12-28", 0.546], ["2020-12-28", 0.546], ["2020-12-29", 0.546], ["2020-12-29", 0.55], ["2020-12-30", 0.551], ["2020-12-30", 0.553], ["2020-12-30", 0.559], ["2020-12-30", 0.613], ["2020-12-31", 0.638], ["2020-12-31", 0.672], ["2020-12-31", 0.691], ["2020-12-31", 0.707], ["2020-12-31", 0.713], ["2021-01-01", 0.727], ["2021-01-01", 0.731], ["2021-01-01", 0.732], ["2021-01-01", 0.737], ["2021-01-01", 0.737], ["2021-01-02", 0.748], ["2021-01-02", 0.751], ["2021-01-02", 0.753], ["2021-01-02", 0.754], ["2021-01-02", 0.767], ["2021-01-03", 0.785], ["2021-01-03", 0.789], ["2021-01-03", 0.791], ["2021-01-03", 0.785], ["2021-01-03", 0.786], ["2021-01-04", 0.791], ["2021-01-04", 0.793], ["2021-01-04", 0.795], ["2021-01-04", 0.798], ["2021-01-04", 0.798], ["2021-01-05", 0.804], ["2021-01-05", 0.831], ["2021-01-05", 0.858], ["2021-01-05", 0.867], ["2021-01-06", 0.87]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5844/
|
The electoral college will meet on 14 December 2020 and vote. They are widely expected to deliver a result showing Biden has won the election.
However, individual states may have their Electoral College Certificate of Vote challenged when Congress meets in Joint Session to count the electoral votes cast for President and Vice President on 6 Jan 2021. This will be the newly elected Senate and House of Representatives, following the 2020 election.
A "formal objection" must be made in writing and be signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives, per the provisions of 3 U.S.C. §15.
In 1969, a challenge was made to attempt to overturn a vote of a faithless elector. In 2005, Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio and Senator Barbara Boxer of California objected to Ohio's electoral votes, alleging "widespread irregularities". Neither of these challenges succeeded.
An objection was also attempted in 2016 by a member of the House, but no Senator signed on.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if at least one formal objection to the 2020 electoral college vote is made in writing and signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives, per credible media reporting. (Note that the objection does not need to succeed to count for positive resolution.)
This question resolves negatively if no such objection is made.
This question resolves ambiguously if the certification is not held by 6 Jan 2021. If somehow an objection is made after 6 Jan 2021 but the certification has taken place, the objection will not count for the purposes of this question and the objection will not affect resolution.
If an objection is made, this question will close retroactively to 24 hours before the date of the objection
| true
|
2021-01-06
|
Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-12-04
|
2020-12-04
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-07", 0.65], ["2020-12-09", 0.76], ["2020-12-10", 0.769], ["2020-12-11", 0.762], ["2020-12-15", 0.762], ["2020-12-22", 0.762], ["2020-12-24", 0.766], ["2020-12-27", 0.766], ["2020-12-29", 0.765], ["2020-12-30", 0.763], ["2020-12-31", 0.763], ["2021-01-02", 0.773], ["2021-01-02", 0.776], ["2021-01-03", 0.776], ["2021-01-04", 0.775], ["2021-01-06", 0.774], ["2021-01-08", 0.771], ["2021-01-10", 0.77], ["2021-01-11", 0.777], ["2021-01-12", 0.777], ["2021-01-13", 0.775], ["2021-01-14", 0.78], ["2021-01-20", 0.78], ["2021-01-21", 0.779], ["2021-01-25", 0.779], ["2021-01-26", 0.781], ["2021-01-27", 0.78], ["2021-01-29", 0.78], ["2021-01-29", 0.779], ["2021-01-31", 0.783], ["2021-02-01", 0.785], ["2021-02-03", 0.786], ["2021-02-04", 0.786], ["2021-02-06", 0.774], ["2021-02-09", 0.787], ["2021-02-10", 0.789], ["2021-02-12", 0.789], ["2021-02-13", 0.79], ["2021-02-14", 0.79], ["2021-02-16", 0.787], ["2021-02-16", 0.787], ["2021-02-18", 0.783], ["2021-02-20", 0.783], ["2021-02-21", 0.783], ["2021-02-23", 0.783], ["2021-02-24", 0.785], ["2021-03-02", 0.786], ["2021-03-04", 0.786], ["2021-03-05", 0.787], ["2021-03-06", 0.787], ["2021-03-09", 0.789], ["2021-03-10", 0.794], ["2021-03-15", 0.798], ["2021-03-16", 0.799], ["2021-03-25", 0.799], ["2021-03-26", 0.802], ["2021-03-31", 0.802], ["2021-04-01", 0.802], ["2021-04-04", 0.793], ["2021-04-05", 0.792], ["2021-04-07", 0.793], ["2021-04-10", 0.793], ["2021-04-12", 0.794], ["2021-04-15", 0.794], ["2021-04-16", 0.798], ["2021-04-17", 0.8], ["2021-04-19", 0.801], ["2021-04-24", 0.802], ["2021-05-02", 0.802], ["2021-05-03", 0.804], ["2021-05-05", 0.803], ["2021-05-06", 0.803], ["2021-05-07", 0.803], ["2021-05-08", 0.805], ["2021-05-14", 0.805], ["2021-05-15", 0.805], ["2021-05-20", 0.804], ["2021-05-21", 0.804], ["2021-05-23", 0.804], ["2021-05-25", 0.804], ["2021-05-26", 0.802], ["2021-05-27", 0.804], ["2021-05-28", 0.808], ["2021-05-30", 0.808], ["2021-05-31", 0.808], ["2021-06-02", 0.807], ["2021-06-03", 0.806], ["2021-06-09", 0.806], ["2021-06-10", 0.806], ["2021-06-15", 0.805], ["2021-06-16", 0.805], ["2021-06-17", 0.805], ["2021-06-19", 0.798], ["2021-06-20", 0.793], ["2021-06-21", 0.793], ["2021-06-23", 0.792], ["2021-06-24", 0.791], ["2021-06-27", 0.791], ["2021-06-28", 0.793], ["2021-06-30", 0.796], ["2021-07-01", 0.791]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5848/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Currently, according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos, "about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden". Despite media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden, Trump's court cases failing, recounts continuing to show Biden winning, states officially certifying results, Trump exhausting all legal options, and AG Barr saying no fraud, this conspiracy theory still persists.
Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, Morning Consult polling found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.
Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?
This question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:
the 2020 election was "rigged"
the 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified "unfair")
Donald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president
Joe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president
Donald Trump won in 2020
Joe Biden lost in 2020
This question resolves negatively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.
This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.
November is defined according to UTC
| true
|
2021-07-01
|
On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-10-05
|
2020-12-08
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-18", 0.7], ["2020-12-18", 0.7], ["2020-12-19", 0.615], ["2020-12-19", 0.512], ["2020-12-19", 0.539], ["2020-12-20", 0.539], ["2020-12-22", 0.574], ["2020-12-23", 0.569], ["2020-12-23", 0.575], ["2020-12-25", 0.575], ["2020-12-29", 0.571], ["2020-12-29", 0.582], ["2020-12-30", 0.578], ["2020-12-30", 0.575], ["2021-01-02", 0.575], ["2021-01-02", 0.562], ["2021-01-02", 0.545], ["2021-01-02", 0.536], ["2021-01-04", 0.532], ["2021-01-13", 0.544], ["2021-01-13", 0.543], ["2021-01-14", 0.545], ["2021-01-17", 0.545], ["2021-01-17", 0.54], ["2021-01-18", 0.546], ["2021-01-23", 0.543], ["2021-01-28", 0.543], ["2021-01-28", 0.54], ["2021-02-04", 0.54], ["2021-02-10", 0.539], ["2021-02-20", 0.535], ["2021-02-25", 0.535], ["2021-02-26", 0.535], ["2021-03-14", 0.534], ["2021-03-18", 0.53], ["2021-03-18", 0.525], ["2021-03-18", 0.53], ["2021-03-29", 0.528], ["2021-03-29", 0.528], ["2021-04-02", 0.528], ["2021-04-05", 0.527], ["2021-04-07", 0.527], ["2021-04-09", 0.525], ["2021-04-12", 0.525], ["2021-04-21", 0.523], ["2021-04-21", 0.519], ["2021-04-21", 0.518], ["2021-04-22", 0.515], ["2021-04-23", 0.515], ["2021-04-27", 0.515], ["2021-05-10", 0.51], ["2021-05-12", 0.508], ["2021-05-12", 0.51], ["2021-05-12", 0.503], ["2021-05-12", 0.5], ["2021-05-13", 0.498], ["2021-05-13", 0.498], ["2021-05-13", 0.494], ["2021-05-14", 0.497], ["2021-05-14", 0.496], ["2021-05-20", 0.495], ["2021-05-25", 0.498], ["2021-06-11", 0.498], ["2021-06-19", 0.498], ["2021-06-19", 0.486], ["2021-07-02", 0.485], ["2021-07-08", 0.485], ["2021-07-11", 0.477], ["2021-07-15", 0.476], ["2021-07-16", 0.475], ["2021-07-19", 0.475], ["2021-07-19", 0.476], ["2021-07-20", 0.475], ["2021-07-20", 0.475], ["2021-07-21", 0.475], ["2021-07-21", 0.474], ["2021-07-22", 0.474], ["2021-07-24", 0.473], ["2021-08-02", 0.473], ["2021-08-04", 0.465], ["2021-08-04", 0.461], ["2021-08-09", 0.456], ["2021-08-12", 0.456], ["2021-08-14", 0.456], ["2021-08-15", 0.458], ["2021-08-16", 0.459], ["2021-08-22", 0.459], ["2021-08-27", 0.46], ["2021-09-03", 0.46], ["2021-09-07", 0.461], ["2021-09-09", 0.462], ["2021-09-09", 0.464], ["2021-09-09", 0.464], ["2021-09-09", 0.457], ["2021-09-13", 0.457], ["2021-09-15", 0.452], ["2021-09-16", 0.451], ["2021-09-24", 0.451], ["2021-09-27", 0.451], ["2021-09-30", 0.449], ["2021-10-01", 0.551]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5883/
|
Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.
2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the "gold standard".
Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have caused controversy.
The ICAC revelations were followed by other missteps by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen.
The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.
Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances.
(Based on the short-fuse question by @helpermonkey )
|
Politics & Governance
|
The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.
For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.
The question will resolve retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs
| true
|
2021-10-01
|
Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-01-01
|
2020-12-08
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-25", 0.3], ["2020-12-25", 0.3], ["2020-12-25", 0.25], ["2020-12-25", 0.322], ["2020-12-25", 0.41], ["2020-12-25", 0.408], ["2020-12-25", 0.434], ["2020-12-25", 0.434], ["2020-12-26", 0.434], ["2020-12-27", 0.443], ["2020-12-27", 0.451], ["2020-12-27", 0.466], ["2020-12-27", 0.469], ["2020-12-28", 0.485], ["2020-12-28", 0.485], ["2020-12-28", 0.49], ["2020-12-29", 0.494], ["2020-12-29", 0.494], ["2020-12-30", 0.495], ["2020-12-30", 0.496], ["2020-12-30", 0.496], ["2020-12-30", 0.496], ["2021-01-01", 0.496], ["2021-01-02", 0.502], ["2021-01-02", 0.502], ["2021-01-03", 0.517], ["2021-01-03", 0.521], ["2021-01-04", 0.521], ["2021-01-05", 0.516], ["2021-01-06", 0.518], ["2021-01-08", 0.524], ["2021-01-08", 0.526], ["2021-01-08", 0.528], ["2021-01-08", 0.529], ["2021-01-08", 0.529], ["2021-01-09", 0.536], ["2021-01-13", 0.537], ["2021-01-27", 0.537], ["2021-02-03", 0.54], ["2021-02-04", 0.546], ["2021-02-04", 0.543], ["2021-02-04", 0.545], ["2021-02-04", 0.545], ["2021-02-04", 0.545], ["2021-02-05", 0.545], ["2021-02-05", 0.559], ["2021-02-05", 0.558], ["2021-02-05", 0.563], ["2021-02-05", 0.563], ["2021-02-05", 0.561], ["2021-02-06", 0.57], ["2021-02-06", 0.57], ["2021-02-06", 0.571], ["2021-02-06", 0.571], ["2021-02-07", 0.572], ["2021-02-10", 0.572], ["2021-02-10", 0.571], ["2021-02-24", 0.573], ["2021-02-24", 0.573], ["2021-03-02", 0.573], ["2021-03-02", 0.575], ["2021-03-02", 0.575], ["2021-03-02", 0.576], ["2021-03-03", 0.576], ["2021-03-05", 0.58], ["2021-03-15", 0.579], ["2021-03-17", 0.579], ["2021-03-19", 0.587], ["2021-03-21", 0.588], ["2021-03-29", 0.588], ["2021-03-29", 0.589], ["2021-03-30", 0.589], ["2021-03-30", 0.589], ["2021-03-31", 0.587], ["2021-03-31", 0.586], ["2021-03-31", 0.584], ["2021-03-31", 0.584], ["2021-03-31", 0.576], ["2021-03-31", 0.58], ["2021-04-01", 0.58], ["2021-04-01", 0.583], ["2021-04-01", 0.581], ["2021-04-01", 0.581], ["2021-04-01", 0.575], ["2021-04-01", 0.575], ["2021-04-01", 0.575], ["2021-04-01", 0.575]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5884/
|
The House has passed the bipartisan Open Courts Act, which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively
| true
|
2021-04-01
|
Will the Open Courts Act become law?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-01-01
|
2020-12-11
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-12", 0.45], ["2020-12-14", 0.422], ["2020-12-15", 0.408], ["2020-12-18", 0.396], ["2020-12-19", 0.392], ["2020-12-22", 0.383], ["2020-12-24", 0.386], ["2020-12-27", 0.392], ["2020-12-29", 0.405], ["2021-01-01", 0.389], ["2021-01-05", 0.376], ["2021-01-07", 0.377], ["2021-01-09", 0.379], ["2021-01-11", 0.373], ["2021-01-13", 0.373], ["2021-01-15", 0.369], ["2021-01-19", 0.366], ["2021-01-22", 0.364], ["2021-01-24", 0.364], ["2021-01-26", 0.351], ["2021-01-28", 0.351], ["2021-01-30", 0.351], ["2021-02-01", 0.345], ["2021-02-04", 0.34], ["2021-02-06", 0.34], ["2021-02-09", 0.339], ["2021-02-10", 0.343], ["2021-02-13", 0.343], ["2021-02-15", 0.344], ["2021-02-18", 0.343], ["2021-02-20", 0.339], ["2021-02-23", 0.338], ["2021-02-25", 0.339], ["2021-03-02", 0.343], ["2021-03-05", 0.343], ["2021-03-07", 0.344], ["2021-03-13", 0.344], ["2021-03-13", 0.346], ["2021-03-28", 0.347], ["2021-03-31", 0.348], ["2021-04-04", 0.348], ["2021-04-07", 0.348], ["2021-04-10", 0.349], ["2021-04-13", 0.346], ["2021-04-17", 0.348], ["2021-04-26", 0.345], ["2021-04-29", 0.339], ["2021-04-30", 0.34], ["2021-05-02", 0.338], ["2021-05-04", 0.339], ["2021-05-07", 0.339], ["2021-05-12", 0.338], ["2021-05-13", 0.338], ["2021-05-20", 0.336], ["2021-05-23", 0.335], ["2021-05-29", 0.335], ["2021-05-31", 0.332], ["2021-06-03", 0.333], ["2021-06-05", 0.337], ["2021-06-07", 0.337], ["2021-06-13", 0.338], ["2021-06-15", 0.338], ["2021-06-21", 0.338], ["2021-06-24", 0.335], ["2021-06-26", 0.337], ["2021-06-28", 0.337], ["2021-07-01", 0.339], ["2021-07-03", 0.34], ["2021-07-14", 0.339], ["2021-07-15", 0.339], ["2021-07-18", 0.34], ["2021-07-20", 0.342], ["2021-07-22", 0.34], ["2021-07-24", 0.336], ["2021-07-29", 0.336], ["2021-07-30", 0.341], ["2021-08-01", 0.331], ["2021-08-03", 0.326], ["2021-08-07", 0.326], ["2021-08-10", 0.323], ["2021-08-26", 0.322], ["2021-09-02", 0.321], ["2021-09-12", 0.321], ["2021-09-14", 0.328], ["2021-09-16", 0.321], ["2021-09-19", 0.316], ["2021-09-22", 0.309], ["2021-09-24", 0.309], ["2021-09-27", 0.307], ["2021-09-29", 0.297], ["2021-09-30", 0.296], ["2021-10-05", 0.295], ["2021-10-09", 0.288], ["2021-10-12", 0.271], ["2021-10-14", 0.248], ["2021-10-17", 0.241], ["2021-10-20", 0.231], ["2021-10-23", 0.225], ["2021-10-27", 0.22], ["2021-10-30", 0.191], ["2021-10-30", 0.182]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5914/
|
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021, though this may be delayed.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution
| true
|
2021-10-31
|
Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-12-29
|
2020-12-11
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-12", 0.25], ["2020-12-14", 0.279], ["2020-12-15", 0.236], ["2020-12-18", 0.225], ["2020-12-19", 0.224], ["2020-12-21", 0.247], ["2020-12-23", 0.253], ["2020-12-26", 0.232], ["2020-12-29", 0.221], ["2020-12-31", 0.216], ["2021-01-01", 0.209], ["2021-01-03", 0.209], ["2021-01-06", 0.205], ["2021-01-08", 0.206], ["2021-01-11", 0.203], ["2021-01-13", 0.202], ["2021-01-15", 0.192], ["2021-01-17", 0.19], ["2021-01-22", 0.19], ["2021-01-25", 0.187], ["2021-01-28", 0.186], ["2021-01-30", 0.182], ["2021-02-01", 0.186], ["2021-02-03", 0.18], ["2021-02-09", 0.179], ["2021-02-11", 0.189], ["2021-02-13", 0.189], ["2021-02-14", 0.19], ["2021-02-17", 0.19], ["2021-02-23", 0.189], ["2021-02-25", 0.189], ["2021-03-05", 0.189], ["2021-03-07", 0.189], ["2021-03-12", 0.186], ["2021-03-12", 0.186], ["2021-03-21", 0.185], ["2021-03-22", 0.185], ["2021-03-25", 0.185], ["2021-03-31", 0.188], ["2021-04-04", 0.188], ["2021-04-05", 0.188], ["2021-04-07", 0.187], ["2021-04-10", 0.188], ["2021-04-10", 0.187], ["2021-04-17", 0.191], ["2021-04-17", 0.191], ["2021-04-29", 0.186], ["2021-05-04", 0.185], ["2021-05-08", 0.185], ["2021-05-08", 0.185], ["2021-05-20", 0.182], ["2021-05-23", 0.182], ["2021-05-27", 0.182], ["2021-05-29", 0.181], ["2021-06-02", 0.18], ["2021-06-04", 0.18], ["2021-06-06", 0.178], ["2021-06-08", 0.177], ["2021-06-10", 0.177], ["2021-06-11", 0.176], ["2021-06-16", 0.176], ["2021-06-18", 0.176], ["2021-06-23", 0.175], ["2021-06-25", 0.172], ["2021-06-27", 0.171], ["2021-07-02", 0.171], ["2021-07-03", 0.174], ["2021-07-15", 0.174], ["2021-07-18", 0.174], ["2021-07-21", 0.172], ["2021-07-23", 0.17], ["2021-07-30", 0.17], ["2021-08-01", 0.168], ["2021-08-05", 0.168], ["2021-08-16", 0.167], ["2021-08-17", 0.167], ["2021-08-20", 0.167], ["2021-08-20", 0.167], ["2021-08-24", 0.166], ["2021-09-01", 0.166], ["2021-09-01", 0.166], ["2021-09-11", 0.166], ["2021-09-12", 0.166], ["2021-09-15", 0.163], ["2021-09-18", 0.156], ["2021-09-20", 0.152], ["2021-09-25", 0.151], ["2021-09-30", 0.151], ["2021-10-03", 0.148], ["2021-10-05", 0.147], ["2021-10-07", 0.147], ["2021-10-09", 0.145], ["2021-10-10", 0.145], ["2021-10-14", 0.143], ["2021-10-16", 0.141], ["2021-10-19", 0.136], ["2021-10-21", 0.133], ["2021-10-23", 0.13], ["2021-10-27", 0.13], ["2021-10-30", 0.124], ["2021-10-31", 0.117]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5915/
|
President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans. It seems likely that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President.
A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution
| true
|
2021-10-31
|
Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-01-14
|
2020-12-11
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-12", 0.4], ["2020-12-16", 0.428], ["2020-12-18", 0.428], ["2020-12-21", 0.421], ["2020-12-23", 0.419], ["2020-12-26", 0.425], ["2020-12-29", 0.422], ["2021-01-01", 0.435], ["2021-01-03", 0.426], ["2021-01-06", 0.435], ["2021-01-09", 0.435], ["2021-01-11", 0.435], ["2021-01-14", 0.439], ["2021-01-16", 0.446], ["2021-01-19", 0.44], ["2021-01-21", 0.428], ["2021-01-25", 0.397], ["2021-01-27", 0.396], ["2021-01-30", 0.395], ["2021-02-02", 0.395], ["2021-02-06", 0.395], ["2021-02-10", 0.395], ["2021-02-13", 0.391], ["2021-02-17", 0.39], ["2021-02-20", 0.39], ["2021-02-23", 0.39], ["2021-02-26", 0.39], ["2021-02-28", 0.39], ["2021-03-02", 0.391], ["2021-03-04", 0.39], ["2021-03-07", 0.39], ["2021-03-15", 0.388], ["2021-03-26", 0.388], ["2021-03-30", 0.387], ["2021-04-04", 0.387], ["2021-04-07", 0.385], ["2021-04-10", 0.385], ["2021-04-13", 0.38], ["2021-04-16", 0.379], ["2021-04-17", 0.379], ["2021-04-22", 0.379], ["2021-04-22", 0.383], ["2021-04-26", 0.383], ["2021-04-28", 0.369], ["2021-05-01", 0.369], ["2021-05-04", 0.36], ["2021-05-06", 0.355], ["2021-05-12", 0.358], ["2021-05-20", 0.358], ["2021-05-23", 0.353], ["2021-05-27", 0.353], ["2021-05-29", 0.351], ["2021-06-02", 0.351], ["2021-06-06", 0.349], ["2021-06-08", 0.349], ["2021-06-11", 0.349], ["2021-06-14", 0.346], ["2021-06-19", 0.346], ["2021-06-20", 0.343], ["2021-06-24", 0.343], ["2021-06-27", 0.311], ["2021-07-01", 0.297], ["2021-07-03", 0.296], ["2021-07-06", 0.296], ["2021-07-09", 0.289], ["2021-07-13", 0.289], ["2021-07-16", 0.282], ["2021-07-19", 0.28], ["2021-07-23", 0.278], ["2021-07-25", 0.277], ["2021-07-27", 0.277], ["2021-07-30", 0.274], ["2021-08-01", 0.273], ["2021-08-05", 0.271], ["2021-08-06", 0.27], ["2021-08-11", 0.27], ["2021-08-13", 0.267], ["2021-08-16", 0.267], ["2021-08-18", 0.266], ["2021-08-21", 0.263], ["2021-08-26", 0.263], ["2021-09-01", 0.264], ["2021-09-03", 0.259], ["2021-09-10", 0.259], ["2021-09-13", 0.258], ["2021-09-16", 0.258], ["2021-09-19", 0.256], ["2021-09-22", 0.254], ["2021-09-27", 0.254], ["2021-09-29", 0.253], ["2021-10-03", 0.253], ["2021-10-04", 0.25], ["2021-10-09", 0.25], ["2021-10-12", 0.239], ["2021-10-15", 0.23], ["2021-10-18", 0.224], ["2021-10-21", 0.224], ["2021-10-24", 0.221], ["2021-10-26", 0.219], ["2021-10-30", 0.193], ["2021-10-30", 0.187]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5916/
|
According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the “...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880” and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.
|
Environment & Energy
|
This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.
Fine Print
If the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.
| true
|
2021-10-31
|
Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-11-01
|
2020-12-11
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-12", 0.5], ["2020-12-14", 0.616], ["2020-12-15", 0.569], ["2020-12-17", 0.593], ["2020-12-18", 0.593], ["2020-12-19", 0.596], ["2020-12-20", 0.612], ["2020-12-23", 0.617], ["2020-12-24", 0.619], ["2020-12-27", 0.622], ["2020-12-29", 0.632], ["2020-12-31", 0.633], ["2021-01-01", 0.644], ["2021-01-03", 0.644], ["2021-01-04", 0.645], ["2021-01-09", 0.643], ["2021-01-11", 0.644], ["2021-01-12", 0.638], ["2021-01-13", 0.635], ["2021-01-25", 0.637], ["2021-01-25", 0.637], ["2021-01-27", 0.637], ["2021-01-29", 0.639], ["2021-02-07", 0.639], ["2021-02-10", 0.639], ["2021-02-10", 0.638], ["2021-02-17", 0.642], ["2021-02-21", 0.642], ["2021-02-23", 0.643], ["2021-02-25", 0.646], ["2021-02-28", 0.648], ["2021-03-02", 0.651], ["2021-03-04", 0.651], ["2021-03-07", 0.645], ["2021-03-07", 0.645], ["2021-03-12", 0.642], ["2021-03-12", 0.642], ["2021-03-31", 0.642], ["2021-04-01", 0.641], ["2021-04-03", 0.64], ["2021-04-05", 0.633], ["2021-04-07", 0.625], ["2021-04-10", 0.625], ["2021-04-13", 0.625], ["2021-05-04", 0.625], ["2021-05-11", 0.624], ["2021-05-12", 0.628], ["2021-05-22", 0.628], ["2021-05-23", 0.628], ["2021-05-26", 0.628], ["2021-05-27", 0.631], ["2021-06-06", 0.632], ["2021-06-06", 0.632], ["2021-06-13", 0.634], ["2021-06-13", 0.634], ["2021-06-23", 0.635], ["2021-06-23", 0.635], ["2021-06-29", 0.635], ["2021-07-02", 0.635], ["2021-07-05", 0.635], ["2021-07-15", 0.635], ["2021-07-16", 0.633], ["2021-07-18", 0.632], ["2021-07-20", 0.626], ["2021-07-30", 0.629], ["2021-07-31", 0.632], ["2021-08-03", 0.639], ["2021-08-13", 0.639], ["2021-08-24", 0.639], ["2021-08-24", 0.645], ["2021-08-27", 0.644], ["2021-09-03", 0.645], ["2021-09-04", 0.646], ["2021-09-09", 0.646], ["2021-09-10", 0.646], ["2021-09-11", 0.645], ["2021-09-13", 0.644], ["2021-09-14", 0.644], ["2021-09-16", 0.636], ["2021-09-18", 0.636], ["2021-09-20", 0.635], ["2021-09-21", 0.63], ["2021-09-23", 0.629], ["2021-09-25", 0.629], ["2021-09-26", 0.632], ["2021-09-27", 0.635], ["2021-09-30", 0.635], ["2021-09-30", 0.634], ["2021-10-03", 0.634], ["2021-10-05", 0.628], ["2021-10-07", 0.621], ["2021-10-08", 0.621], ["2021-10-10", 0.62], ["2021-10-12", 0.62], ["2021-10-14", 0.62], ["2021-10-16", 0.618], ["2021-10-18", 0.614], ["2021-10-20", 0.614], ["2021-10-23", 0.61], ["2021-10-25", 0.613], ["2021-10-27", 0.594]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5918/
|
The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference. It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.
|
Environment & Energy
|
This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference
| true
|
2021-10-27
|
Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-12-31
|
2020-12-11
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-12", 0.3], ["2020-12-13", 0.331], ["2020-12-14", 0.229], ["2020-12-14", 0.204], ["2020-12-15", 0.142], ["2020-12-16", 0.146], ["2020-12-17", 0.163], ["2020-12-18", 0.161], ["2020-12-19", 0.161], ["2020-12-20", 0.187], ["2020-12-23", 0.186], ["2020-12-24", 0.187], ["2020-12-27", 0.193], ["2020-12-28", 0.192], ["2020-12-29", 0.2], ["2020-12-31", 0.203], ["2021-01-01", 0.2], ["2021-01-03", 0.2], ["2021-01-04", 0.199], ["2021-01-08", 0.199], ["2021-01-09", 0.199], ["2021-01-10", 0.198], ["2021-01-10", 0.206], ["2021-01-12", 0.202], ["2021-01-13", 0.202], ["2021-01-25", 0.203], ["2021-01-30", 0.203], ["2021-02-02", 0.204], ["2021-02-10", 0.204], ["2021-02-13", 0.203], ["2021-02-14", 0.203], ["2021-02-15", 0.213], ["2021-02-23", 0.216], ["2021-03-07", 0.214], ["2021-03-07", 0.214], ["2021-03-11", 0.213], ["2021-03-17", 0.213], ["2021-03-31", 0.211], ["2021-03-31", 0.211], ["2021-04-07", 0.211], ["2021-04-10", 0.211], ["2021-04-11", 0.212], ["2021-04-17", 0.212], ["2021-04-17", 0.209], ["2021-05-02", 0.214], ["2021-05-11", 0.213], ["2021-05-12", 0.211], ["2021-05-20", 0.211], ["2021-05-20", 0.209], ["2021-05-23", 0.209], ["2021-05-29", 0.209], ["2021-06-02", 0.209], ["2021-06-03", 0.206], ["2021-06-04", 0.206], ["2021-06-07", 0.205], ["2021-06-08", 0.205], ["2021-06-08", 0.204], ["2021-06-24", 0.204], ["2021-06-25", 0.203], ["2021-07-01", 0.203], ["2021-07-02", 0.204], ["2021-07-08", 0.203], ["2021-07-12", 0.202], ["2021-07-15", 0.202], ["2021-07-16", 0.203], ["2021-07-18", 0.202], ["2021-07-19", 0.202], ["2021-07-20", 0.202], ["2021-07-20", 0.201], ["2021-07-30", 0.201], ["2021-08-01", 0.199], ["2021-08-09", 0.199], ["2021-08-16", 0.199], ["2021-08-17", 0.198], ["2021-08-27", 0.198], ["2021-08-27", 0.198], ["2021-09-02", 0.198], ["2021-09-02", 0.198], ["2021-09-03", 0.196], ["2021-09-09", 0.197], ["2021-09-16", 0.195], ["2021-09-19", 0.195], ["2021-09-25", 0.195], ["2021-09-25", 0.195], ["2021-09-29", 0.194], ["2021-09-30", 0.193], ["2021-10-03", 0.193], ["2021-10-05", 0.191], ["2021-10-06", 0.19], ["2021-10-07", 0.189], ["2021-10-16", 0.189], ["2021-10-16", 0.187], ["2021-10-19", 0.187], ["2021-10-21", 0.186], ["2021-10-22", 0.185], ["2021-10-22", 0.18], ["2021-10-24", 0.175], ["2021-10-27", 0.175], ["2021-10-28", 0.175], ["2021-10-30", 0.173], ["2021-10-30", 0.151]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5920/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about 30% of the world’s people and output, which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which President Trump withdrew from in 2017. President-elect Joe Biden has been noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP. Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.
Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.
| true
|
2021-10-31
|
Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-12-31
|
2020-12-11
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-12", 0.39], ["2020-12-15", 0.587], ["2020-12-18", 0.575], ["2020-12-21", 0.583], ["2020-12-23", 0.586], ["2020-12-26", 0.585], ["2020-12-30", 0.61], ["2021-01-02", 0.602], ["2021-01-07", 0.602], ["2021-01-07", 0.597], ["2021-01-17", 0.599], ["2021-01-20", 0.595], ["2021-01-23", 0.599], ["2021-01-27", 0.585], ["2021-01-29", 0.587], ["2021-02-02", 0.588], ["2021-02-10", 0.588], ["2021-02-10", 0.586], ["2021-02-17", 0.58], ["2021-02-21", 0.58], ["2021-02-24", 0.561], ["2021-02-27", 0.534], ["2021-03-02", 0.532], ["2021-03-06", 0.483], ["2021-03-08", 0.469], ["2021-03-12", 0.466], ["2021-03-16", 0.466], ["2021-03-18", 0.466], ["2021-03-22", 0.45], ["2021-03-26", 0.456], ["2021-03-28", 0.443], ["2021-04-01", 0.446], ["2021-04-04", 0.446], ["2021-04-05", 0.441], ["2021-04-08", 0.435], ["2021-04-11", 0.427], ["2021-04-14", 0.428], ["2021-04-17", 0.429], ["2021-04-19", 0.429], ["2021-04-22", 0.421], ["2021-04-25", 0.421], ["2021-04-28", 0.421], ["2021-05-03", 0.421], ["2021-05-05", 0.422], ["2021-05-07", 0.421], ["2021-05-10", 0.419], ["2021-05-14", 0.413], ["2021-05-17", 0.412], ["2021-05-20", 0.413], ["2021-05-23", 0.412], ["2021-05-25", 0.412], ["2021-05-30", 0.411], ["2021-06-02", 0.411], ["2021-06-05", 0.412], ["2021-06-08", 0.408], ["2021-06-11", 0.408], ["2021-06-14", 0.406], ["2021-06-17", 0.405], ["2021-06-21", 0.405], ["2021-06-24", 0.405], ["2021-06-27", 0.405], ["2021-06-29", 0.403], ["2021-07-01", 0.401], ["2021-07-04", 0.398], ["2021-07-08", 0.397], ["2021-07-10", 0.397], ["2021-07-13", 0.397], ["2021-07-17", 0.397], ["2021-07-20", 0.399], ["2021-07-23", 0.399], ["2021-07-27", 0.399], ["2021-07-30", 0.398], ["2021-08-02", 0.396], ["2021-08-05", 0.392], ["2021-08-09", 0.391], ["2021-08-12", 0.391], ["2021-08-15", 0.391], ["2021-08-18", 0.391], ["2021-08-21", 0.393], ["2021-08-24", 0.392], ["2021-08-27", 0.392], ["2021-08-30", 0.392], ["2021-09-01", 0.392], ["2021-09-05", 0.392], ["2021-09-08", 0.392], ["2021-09-10", 0.391], ["2021-09-12", 0.391], ["2021-09-16", 0.39], ["2021-09-17", 0.391], ["2021-09-22", 0.388], ["2021-09-26", 0.386], ["2021-09-29", 0.38], ["2021-10-03", 0.376], ["2021-10-07", 0.374], ["2021-10-10", 0.371], ["2021-10-14", 0.371], ["2021-10-17", 0.368], ["2021-10-21", 0.358], ["2021-10-24", 0.353], ["2021-10-28", 0.347], ["2021-10-31", 0.294]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5922/
|
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently “…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”. The UK’s conservative government has indicated that it will oppose the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively
| true
|
2021-10-31
|
Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-12-31
|
2020-12-12
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-12", 0.4], ["2020-12-15", 0.361], ["2020-12-18", 0.349], ["2020-12-21", 0.348], ["2020-12-24", 0.348], ["2020-12-27", 0.348], ["2021-01-01", 0.361], ["2021-01-03", 0.358], ["2021-01-06", 0.351], ["2021-01-09", 0.348], ["2021-01-11", 0.349], ["2021-01-15", 0.345], ["2021-01-19", 0.344], ["2021-01-23", 0.345], ["2021-01-26", 0.345], ["2021-01-29", 0.347], ["2021-02-02", 0.348], ["2021-02-06", 0.346], ["2021-02-09", 0.346], ["2021-02-11", 0.343], ["2021-02-15", 0.34], ["2021-02-18", 0.345], ["2021-02-19", 0.345], ["2021-02-22", 0.344], ["2021-02-26", 0.343], ["2021-03-01", 0.343], ["2021-03-03", 0.343], ["2021-03-06", 0.343], ["2021-03-08", 0.342], ["2021-03-11", 0.342], ["2021-03-13", 0.343], ["2021-03-16", 0.342], ["2021-03-19", 0.342], ["2021-03-22", 0.341], ["2021-03-26", 0.341], ["2021-03-30", 0.34], ["2021-04-01", 0.34], ["2021-04-05", 0.335], ["2021-04-08", 0.334], ["2021-04-10", 0.334], ["2021-04-14", 0.331], ["2021-04-16", 0.331], ["2021-04-19", 0.331], ["2021-04-23", 0.335], ["2021-04-26", 0.335], ["2021-04-30", 0.334], ["2021-05-04", 0.328], ["2021-05-07", 0.327], ["2021-05-10", 0.326], ["2021-05-14", 0.326], ["2021-05-17", 0.325], ["2021-05-21", 0.323], ["2021-05-24", 0.323], ["2021-05-26", 0.323], ["2021-05-29", 0.322], ["2021-06-01", 0.322], ["2021-06-04", 0.32], ["2021-06-06", 0.322], ["2021-06-09", 0.322], ["2021-06-11", 0.321], ["2021-06-15", 0.32], ["2021-06-18", 0.32], ["2021-06-21", 0.319], ["2021-06-24", 0.315], ["2021-06-28", 0.315], ["2021-07-01", 0.315], ["2021-07-03", 0.314], ["2021-07-13", 0.314], ["2021-07-15", 0.313], ["2021-07-20", 0.312], ["2021-07-23", 0.314], ["2021-07-26", 0.312], ["2021-07-28", 0.31], ["2021-07-31", 0.312], ["2021-08-03", 0.308], ["2021-08-06", 0.307], ["2021-08-09", 0.304], ["2021-08-12", 0.306], ["2021-08-15", 0.305], ["2021-08-18", 0.305], ["2021-08-20", 0.303], ["2021-08-23", 0.302], ["2021-08-26", 0.296], ["2021-08-31", 0.296], ["2021-09-03", 0.297], ["2021-09-07", 0.296], ["2021-09-10", 0.297], ["2021-09-14", 0.297], ["2021-09-17", 0.295], ["2021-09-21", 0.297], ["2021-09-25", 0.294], ["2021-09-28", 0.29], ["2021-10-01", 0.29], ["2021-10-04", 0.29], ["2021-10-08", 0.285], ["2021-10-11", 0.284], ["2021-10-15", 0.282], ["2021-10-19", 0.27], ["2021-10-23", 0.262], ["2021-10-28", 0.257], ["2021-10-31", 0.231]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5926/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Economics & Business
|
The S&P 500 has recently closed at new record highs as part of a sustained recovery that follows a 34% bear market in March/April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts have questioned how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.
Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?
This will resolve on the basis of whether the S&P 500 experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.
| true
|
2021-10-31
|
Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-04-27
|
2020-12-15
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-25", 0.125], ["2020-12-26", 0.26], ["2020-12-26", 0.376], ["2020-12-27", 0.386], ["2020-12-28", 0.409], ["2020-12-28", 0.436], ["2020-12-29", 0.436], ["2020-12-30", 0.471], ["2020-12-30", 0.497], ["2021-01-01", 0.504], ["2021-01-01", 0.524], ["2021-01-02", 0.53], ["2021-01-02", 0.566], ["2021-01-03", 0.57], ["2021-01-03", 0.581], ["2021-01-04", 0.567], ["2021-01-05", 0.566], ["2021-01-06", 0.567], ["2021-01-07", 0.566], ["2021-01-07", 0.594], ["2021-01-08", 0.634], ["2021-01-09", 0.633], ["2021-01-09", 0.637], ["2021-01-10", 0.637], ["2021-01-10", 0.639], ["2021-01-11", 0.639], ["2021-01-11", 0.653], ["2021-01-12", 0.654], ["2021-01-13", 0.66], ["2021-01-13", 0.664], ["2021-01-14", 0.664], ["2021-01-15", 0.681], ["2021-01-15", 0.684], ["2021-01-16", 0.687], ["2021-01-17", 0.704], ["2021-01-17", 0.709], ["2021-01-18", 0.709], ["2021-01-19", 0.717], ["2021-01-19", 0.719], ["2021-01-20", 0.719], ["2021-01-21", 0.698], ["2021-01-21", 0.69], ["2021-01-22", 0.666], ["2021-01-22", 0.661], ["2021-01-24", 0.661], ["2021-01-25", 0.659], ["2021-01-25", 0.659], ["2021-01-26", 0.664], ["2021-01-27", 0.685], ["2021-01-27", 0.689], ["2021-01-28", 0.688], ["2021-01-29", 0.691], ["2021-01-29", 0.691], ["2021-01-30", 0.691], ["2021-01-30", 0.693], ["2021-01-31", 0.69], ["2021-02-01", 0.692], ["2021-02-01", 0.695], ["2021-02-02", 0.701], ["2021-02-03", 0.708], ["2021-02-03", 0.71], ["2021-02-04", 0.716], ["2021-02-05", 0.717], ["2021-02-05", 0.72], ["2021-02-06", 0.727], ["2021-02-07", 0.728], ["2021-02-07", 0.726], ["2021-02-07", 0.726], ["2021-02-08", 0.73], ["2021-02-09", 0.728], ["2021-02-09", 0.728], ["2021-02-10", 0.728], ["2021-02-10", 0.73], ["2021-02-11", 0.73], ["2021-02-12", 0.737], ["2021-02-12", 0.74], ["2021-02-13", 0.743], ["2021-02-13", 0.755], ["2021-02-14", 0.759], ["2021-02-15", 0.764], ["2021-02-15", 0.76], ["2021-02-16", 0.758], ["2021-02-16", 0.76], ["2021-02-17", 0.761], ["2021-02-18", 0.764], ["2021-02-19", 0.762], ["2021-02-19", 0.762], ["2021-02-20", 0.766], ["2021-02-20", 0.766], ["2021-02-21", 0.765], ["2021-02-22", 0.765], ["2021-02-23", 0.77], ["2021-02-23", 0.769], ["2021-02-24", 0.771], ["2021-02-24", 0.769], ["2021-02-25", 0.77], ["2021-02-26", 0.778], ["2021-02-27", 0.786], ["2021-02-28", 0.787], ["2021-03-01", 0.813], ["2021-03-01", 0.815]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5979/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
An effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was launched on June 10, 2020. Supporters of the recall have until March 17, 2021, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to require a recall election. In total, five recall petitions against Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot.
The Constitution of California allows for recall elections to be held, if petitioners can collect signatures equal to 12% of the number of votes cast in the last election. In 2018, 12,464,235 total votes were cast in the governor's race.
The current recall petition has currently collected 495 thousand signatures out of the 1.5 million needed.
Will California Gov Gavin Newsom have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before Mar 31, 2022 ?
This question resolves positive if the California Secretary of State certifies that a recall petition has reached the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a recall. This question is for any recall effort which is sucessfully submitted by March 31, 2022, even if the current petition does not reach the required signatures.
The counting of the signatures and verification may take longer than March 31, 2022 to be confirmed.
| true
|
2021-03-01
|
Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-01-21
|
2020-12-16
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-21", 0.6], ["2020-12-21", 0.63], ["2020-12-21", 0.63], ["2020-12-21", 0.638], ["2020-12-21", 0.622], ["2020-12-21", 0.5], ["2020-12-21", 0.423], ["2020-12-21", 0.423], ["2020-12-21", 0.385], ["2020-12-22", 0.411], ["2020-12-22", 0.411], ["2020-12-22", 0.394], ["2020-12-22", 0.434], ["2020-12-22", 0.434], ["2020-12-22", 0.46], ["2020-12-23", 0.459], ["2020-12-23", 0.459], ["2020-12-23", 0.474], ["2020-12-23", 0.466], ["2020-12-23", 0.463], ["2020-12-23", 0.469], ["2020-12-23", 0.459], ["2020-12-23", 0.455], ["2020-12-23", 0.46], ["2020-12-23", 0.455], ["2020-12-23", 0.455], ["2020-12-23", 0.454], ["2020-12-23", 0.453], ["2020-12-23", 0.453], ["2020-12-23", 0.455], ["2020-12-24", 0.453], ["2020-12-24", 0.453], ["2020-12-24", 0.452], ["2020-12-25", 0.454], ["2020-12-25", 0.452], ["2020-12-25", 0.442], ["2020-12-26", 0.443], ["2020-12-26", 0.44], ["2020-12-26", 0.441], ["2020-12-26", 0.44], ["2020-12-26", 0.433], ["2020-12-27", 0.433], ["2020-12-27", 0.428], ["2020-12-27", 0.428], ["2020-12-28", 0.426], ["2020-12-28", 0.433], ["2021-01-01", 0.43], ["2021-01-03", 0.43], ["2021-01-04", 0.423], ["2021-01-04", 0.423], ["2021-01-05", 0.421], ["2021-01-06", 0.419], ["2021-01-07", 0.417], ["2021-01-07", 0.417], ["2021-01-07", 0.416], ["2021-01-07", 0.413], ["2021-01-10", 0.411], ["2021-01-12", 0.411], ["2021-01-13", 0.404], ["2021-01-13", 0.407], ["2021-01-17", 0.407]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5986/
|
The 50th Glastonbury Festival was supposed to take place in 2020, but was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is now scheduled to take place 23rd - 27th June 2021.
The organisers are 'doing everything they can' to make the festival go ahead in 2021, but are 'still quite a long way from being able to say we're confident 2021 will go ahead'.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
This question resolves positively if a Glastonbury Festival with at least 100,000 people present and lasting at least 72 hours takes place in Pilton, Somerset in 2021. Otherwise, it resolves negatively
| true
|
2021-04-30
|
Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-11-21
|
2020-12-17
|
["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what\u2026"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-21", 0.4], ["2020-12-22", 0.363], ["2020-12-22", 0.363], ["2020-12-22", 0.342], ["2020-12-22", 0.338], ["2020-12-22", 0.338], ["2020-12-23", 0.342], ["2020-12-23", 0.342], ["2020-12-23", 0.35], ["2020-12-24", 0.365], ["2020-12-24", 0.364], ["2020-12-25", 0.37], ["2020-12-26", 0.369], ["2020-12-27", 0.375], ["2020-12-27", 0.375], ["2020-12-28", 0.372], ["2021-01-01", 0.359], ["2021-01-01", 0.358], ["2021-01-01", 0.357], ["2021-01-01", 0.352], ["2021-01-02", 0.356], ["2021-01-02", 0.356], ["2021-01-03", 0.356], ["2021-01-03", 0.364], ["2021-01-03", 0.356], ["2021-01-04", 0.356], ["2021-01-04", 0.359], ["2021-01-04", 0.359], ["2021-01-05", 0.362], ["2021-01-05", 0.364], ["2021-01-21", 0.367], ["2021-01-23", 0.368], ["2021-01-27", 0.381], ["2021-01-27", 0.374], ["2021-01-29", 0.372], ["2021-01-31", 0.372], ["2021-01-31", 0.377], ["2021-02-09", 0.377], ["2021-02-10", 0.38], ["2021-02-14", 0.38], ["2021-02-16", 0.381], ["2021-02-18", 0.383], ["2021-02-19", 0.385], ["2021-02-19", 0.385], ["2021-02-19", 0.385], ["2021-02-19", 0.386], ["2021-02-21", 0.385], ["2021-02-21", 0.382], ["2021-02-22", 0.382], ["2021-02-23", 0.383], ["2021-02-23", 0.383], ["2021-02-23", 0.384], ["2021-02-25", 0.385], ["2021-02-25", 0.386], ["2021-02-26", 0.385], ["2021-02-26", 0.386], ["2021-02-27", 0.386], ["2021-02-27", 0.387], ["2021-02-27", 0.387], ["2021-02-27", 0.386], ["2021-02-27", 0.38], ["2021-02-27", 0.388], ["2021-02-27", 0.388], ["2021-02-27", 0.39], ["2021-02-27", 0.392], ["2021-02-27", 0.392], ["2021-02-27", 0.395], ["2021-02-28", 0.391], ["2021-02-28", 0.392]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5993/
|
Context
Travel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers.
As of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.
|
Economics & Business
|
Resolution Criteria
Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found here. Data until Q2 is currently available.
Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what…
| true
|
2021-02-28
|
Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-01-07
|
2020-12-17
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-20", 0.85], ["2020-12-20", 0.867], ["2020-12-20", 0.8], ["2020-12-20", 0.784], ["2020-12-20", 0.787], ["2020-12-21", 0.787], ["2020-12-21", 0.764], ["2020-12-22", 0.749], ["2020-12-22", 0.74], ["2020-12-22", 0.733], ["2020-12-23", 0.724], ["2020-12-23", 0.72], ["2020-12-23", 0.716], ["2020-12-27", 0.702], ["2020-12-27", 0.702], ["2020-12-27", 0.698], ["2020-12-28", 0.702], ["2020-12-29", 0.702], ["2021-01-01", 0.696], ["2021-01-01", 0.68], ["2021-01-02", 0.671], ["2021-01-02", 0.67], ["2021-01-02", 0.677], ["2021-01-07", 0.682], ["2021-01-13", 0.679], ["2021-01-14", 0.678], ["2021-01-17", 0.677], ["2021-01-18", 0.677], ["2021-01-20", 0.68], ["2021-01-21", 0.687], ["2021-01-24", 0.684], ["2021-01-25", 0.684], ["2021-01-27", 0.685], ["2021-01-27", 0.675], ["2021-01-29", 0.675], ["2021-01-30", 0.675], ["2021-02-10", 0.673], ["2021-02-15", 0.673], ["2021-02-18", 0.673], ["2021-03-03", 0.672], ["2021-03-04", 0.672], ["2021-03-09", 0.672], ["2021-03-15", 0.673], ["2021-03-21", 0.673], ["2021-04-02", 0.678], ["2021-04-02", 0.678], ["2021-04-02", 0.683], ["2021-04-02", 0.687], ["2021-04-03", 0.69], ["2021-04-03", 0.69], ["2021-04-03", 0.695], ["2021-04-04", 0.695], ["2021-04-05", 0.704], ["2021-04-08", 0.706], ["2021-04-11", 0.706], ["2021-04-11", 0.71], ["2021-04-12", 0.711], ["2021-04-17", 0.711], ["2021-04-18", 0.714], ["2021-04-19", 0.72], ["2021-04-20", 0.724], ["2021-04-20", 0.725], ["2021-04-23", 0.725], ["2021-04-24", 0.73], ["2021-04-24", 0.727], ["2021-04-25", 0.731], ["2021-04-27", 0.733], ["2021-05-01", 0.734], ["2021-05-04", 0.734], ["2021-05-05", 0.736], ["2021-05-06", 0.739], ["2021-05-07", 0.739], ["2021-05-07", 0.737], ["2021-05-07", 0.733], ["2021-05-07", 0.728], ["2021-05-07", 0.729], ["2021-05-08", 0.727], ["2021-05-10", 0.727], ["2021-05-10", 0.728], ["2021-05-12", 0.725], ["2021-05-12", 0.725], ["2021-05-13", 0.726], ["2021-05-14", 0.727], ["2021-05-14", 0.729], ["2021-05-21", 0.731], ["2021-05-21", 0.733], ["2021-05-21", 0.728], ["2021-05-24", 0.728], ["2021-05-25", 0.727], ["2021-05-26", 0.726], ["2021-05-28", 0.727], ["2021-05-29", 0.73], ["2021-05-29", 0.731], ["2021-05-29", 0.731], ["2021-05-29", 0.729], ["2021-05-30", 0.734], ["2021-05-30", 0.742], ["2021-05-30", 0.755], ["2021-05-30", 0.764], ["2021-05-31", 0.77], ["2021-05-31", 0.776]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5995/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Economics & Business
|
Context
In February 2020, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November.
Heading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over 300,000 with over 2,500 new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can push cities back into lockdown, causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020.
However, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, employment should increase.
For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?
Resolution Criteria
Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.
| true
|
2021-05-31
|
For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-02-18
|
2020-12-18
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-03", 0.9], ["2021-01-05", 0.691], ["2021-01-07", 0.716], ["2021-01-08", 0.737], ["2021-01-10", 0.741], ["2021-01-12", 0.744], ["2021-01-13", 0.744], ["2021-01-15", 0.752], ["2021-01-17", 0.754], ["2021-01-19", 0.754], ["2021-01-20", 0.754], ["2021-01-21", 0.757], ["2021-01-23", 0.757], ["2021-01-25", 0.756], ["2021-01-28", 0.756], ["2021-01-28", 0.756], ["2021-01-31", 0.757], ["2021-02-01", 0.759], ["2021-02-03", 0.761], ["2021-02-04", 0.759], ["2021-02-06", 0.764], ["2021-02-07", 0.764], ["2021-02-10", 0.764], ["2021-02-11", 0.761], ["2021-02-15", 0.763], ["2021-02-15", 0.763], ["2021-02-18", 0.765], ["2021-02-18", 0.765], ["2021-02-21", 0.766], ["2021-02-23", 0.768], ["2021-02-25", 0.768], ["2021-02-27", 0.771], ["2021-02-28", 0.771], ["2021-03-02", 0.77], ["2021-03-03", 0.77], ["2021-03-04", 0.77], ["2021-03-23", 0.772], ["2021-03-24", 0.772], ["2021-04-01", 0.772], ["2021-04-02", 0.77], ["2021-04-08", 0.77], ["2021-04-10", 0.77], ["2021-04-11", 0.771], ["2021-04-24", 0.771], ["2021-04-25", 0.771], ["2021-05-14", 0.774], ["2021-05-15", 0.778], ["2021-05-17", 0.781], ["2021-05-19", 0.783], ["2021-05-23", 0.783], ["2021-05-28", 0.783], ["2021-05-30", 0.785], ["2021-05-31", 0.788], ["2021-06-12", 0.789], ["2021-06-13", 0.789], ["2021-06-15", 0.789], ["2021-06-16", 0.793], ["2021-06-17", 0.793], ["2021-06-26", 0.793], ["2021-06-29", 0.795], ["2021-07-02", 0.798], ["2021-07-03", 0.8], ["2021-07-04", 0.8], ["2021-07-06", 0.803], ["2021-07-09", 0.802], ["2021-07-15", 0.802], ["2021-07-16", 0.803], ["2021-07-19", 0.803], ["2021-07-20", 0.803], ["2021-07-21", 0.803], ["2021-07-30", 0.803], ["2021-07-31", 0.81], ["2021-08-03", 0.81], ["2021-08-05", 0.813], ["2021-08-06", 0.813], ["2021-08-09", 0.813], ["2021-08-12", 0.814], ["2021-08-16", 0.814], ["2021-08-27", 0.814], ["2021-09-13", 0.814], ["2021-09-13", 0.814], ["2021-09-16", 0.812], ["2021-09-17", 0.812], ["2021-09-26", 0.812], ["2021-09-28", 0.811], ["2021-10-01", 0.811], ["2021-10-05", 0.811], ["2021-10-06", 0.81], ["2021-10-26", 0.81], ["2021-11-01", 0.81], ["2021-11-06", 0.807], ["2021-11-08", 0.806], ["2021-11-11", 0.806], ["2021-11-11", 0.804], ["2021-11-15", 0.804], ["2021-11-16", 0.809], ["2021-11-23", 0.809], ["2021-11-26", 0.809], ["2021-11-28", 0.811], ["2021-11-30", 0.808], ["2021-12-02", 0.803]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6000/
|
Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose.
The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna.
Michael Mina and Zeynep Tupfekci advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about #SecondDoseDelay:
For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
Question resolves "Yes" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives?
The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster.
Question will resolve "No" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.
Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for "Yes" or "No" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall
| true
|
2021-12-02
|
Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-02-25
|
2020-12-20
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-21", 0.4], ["2020-12-22", 0.509], ["2020-12-22", 0.56], ["2020-12-22", 0.614], ["2020-12-23", 0.628], ["2020-12-23", 0.607], ["2020-12-23", 0.62], ["2020-12-24", 0.62], ["2020-12-25", 0.635], ["2020-12-26", 0.64], ["2020-12-26", 0.639], ["2020-12-26", 0.627], ["2020-12-27", 0.627], ["2020-12-30", 0.626], ["2021-01-01", 0.621], ["2021-01-02", 0.621], ["2021-01-03", 0.619], ["2021-01-03", 0.617], ["2021-01-04", 0.616], ["2021-01-04", 0.616], ["2021-01-06", 0.609], ["2021-01-07", 0.611], ["2021-01-07", 0.619], ["2021-01-07", 0.621], ["2021-01-07", 0.626], ["2021-01-08", 0.639], ["2021-01-08", 0.65], ["2021-01-08", 0.652], ["2021-01-09", 0.659], ["2021-01-09", 0.652], ["2021-01-10", 0.652], ["2021-01-10", 0.646], ["2021-01-10", 0.648], ["2021-01-11", 0.647], ["2021-01-11", 0.649], ["2021-01-12", 0.641], ["2021-01-12", 0.641], ["2021-01-13", 0.644], ["2021-01-13", 0.645], ["2021-01-15", 0.646], ["2021-01-15", 0.652], ["2021-01-16", 0.662], ["2021-01-16", 0.662], ["2021-01-16", 0.665], ["2021-01-17", 0.666], ["2021-01-17", 0.664], ["2021-01-17", 0.669], ["2021-01-18", 0.667], ["2021-01-18", 0.666], ["2021-01-18", 0.667], ["2021-01-20", 0.668], ["2021-01-20", 0.671], ["2021-01-21", 0.686], ["2021-01-21", 0.723], ["2021-01-21", 0.727], ["2021-01-21", 0.738], ["2021-01-22", 0.741], ["2021-01-22", 0.742], ["2021-01-22", 0.744], ["2021-01-23", 0.744], ["2021-01-23", 0.744], ["2021-01-24", 0.744], ["2021-01-25", 0.746], ["2021-01-25", 0.752], ["2021-01-25", 0.82], ["2021-01-26", 0.837], ["2021-01-26", 0.841], ["2021-01-27", 0.847], ["2021-01-27", 0.852], ["2021-01-27", 0.854], ["2021-01-27", 0.856], ["2021-01-28", 0.856], ["2021-01-28", 0.856], ["2021-01-29", 0.856], ["2021-01-30", 0.861], ["2021-01-30", 0.865], ["2021-01-31", 0.869], ["2021-01-31", 0.869], ["2021-02-01", 0.87], ["2021-02-02", 0.87], ["2021-02-02", 0.87], ["2021-02-03", 0.87], ["2021-02-03", 0.872], ["2021-02-04", 0.873], ["2021-02-04", 0.87], ["2021-02-05", 0.873], ["2021-02-06", 0.874], ["2021-02-08", 0.875], ["2021-02-09", 0.876], ["2021-02-10", 0.875], ["2021-02-11", 0.875], ["2021-02-11", 0.878], ["2021-02-11", 0.878], ["2021-02-12", 0.878], ["2021-02-12", 0.88], ["2021-02-13", 0.88], ["2021-02-16", 0.883], ["2021-02-17", 0.884], ["2021-02-23", 0.884], ["2021-02-23", 0.884], ["2021-02-25", 0.884]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6007/
|
There are already several notable variants of SARS-COV-2 circulating, two of the highest profile are described below.
In Early November 2020, a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming. This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock.
On 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a briefing on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. Three days later, in response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new set of national restrictions, including a "Tier 4" full lockdown across the southeast, and considerable curtailment of the plans to ease restrictions for 5 days over the Christmas period.
It is at least in principle possible that a mutation to SARS-COV-2 could reduce the efficacy of current vaccines.
This question asks:
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
This question resolves positively if and only if there is a credible media report before 2023 that Moderna, Pfizer, BioNTech, University of Oxford, or AstraZeneca have produced at least one dose of an updated vaccine targeting SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). The report must mention that one reason for the update was a mutation. The dose does not have to be administered, and no trials need to be planned.
Fine Print
The report can mention more than one reason for updating the vaccine, as long as one of those reasons is a mutation.
The vaccine does not need to be approved before the resolution date.
Some of these vaccines were developed in a partnership between two companies. The updated vaccine doesn’t need to be part of the same partnership. For example, if AstraZeneca starts working on an updated vaccine independently, that is sufficient for positive resolution.
| true
|
2022-08-31
|
Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-01-04
|
2020-12-20
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-22", 0.4], ["2020-12-25", 0.467], ["2020-12-28", 0.461], ["2020-12-30", 0.438], ["2021-01-03", 0.438], ["2021-01-06", 0.436], ["2021-01-09", 0.454], ["2021-01-11", 0.461], ["2021-01-15", 0.468], ["2021-01-18", 0.465], ["2021-01-22", 0.491], ["2021-01-25", 0.503], ["2021-01-28", 0.512], ["2021-01-30", 0.512], ["2021-02-03", 0.53], ["2021-02-06", 0.537], ["2021-02-08", 0.601], ["2021-02-11", 0.626], ["2021-02-14", 0.627], ["2021-02-17", 0.627], ["2021-02-21", 0.626], ["2021-02-25", 0.626], ["2021-03-01", 0.631], ["2021-03-03", 0.631], ["2021-03-06", 0.64], ["2021-03-09", 0.642], ["2021-03-11", 0.644], ["2021-03-13", 0.644], ["2021-03-19", 0.645], ["2021-03-22", 0.642], ["2021-03-25", 0.64], ["2021-03-27", 0.642], ["2021-03-31", 0.642], ["2021-04-07", 0.642], ["2021-04-10", 0.643], ["2021-04-13", 0.649], ["2021-04-15", 0.652], ["2021-04-19", 0.652], ["2021-05-01", 0.652], ["2021-05-03", 0.65], ["2021-05-06", 0.649], ["2021-05-10", 0.65], ["2021-05-12", 0.65], ["2021-05-15", 0.648], ["2021-05-19", 0.647], ["2021-05-21", 0.644], ["2021-05-23", 0.643], ["2021-05-31", 0.643], ["2021-06-04", 0.642], ["2021-06-17", 0.642], ["2021-06-18", 0.642], ["2021-06-22", 0.644], ["2021-06-26", 0.645], ["2021-06-30", 0.644], ["2021-07-01", 0.644], ["2021-07-08", 0.644], ["2021-07-09", 0.654], ["2021-07-15", 0.655], ["2021-07-18", 0.658], ["2021-07-20", 0.658], ["2021-07-23", 0.658], ["2021-07-27", 0.66], ["2021-07-28", 0.663], ["2021-07-31", 0.672], ["2021-08-03", 0.674], ["2021-08-06", 0.675], ["2021-08-12", 0.676], ["2021-08-14", 0.681], ["2021-08-17", 0.687], ["2021-08-20", 0.688], ["2021-08-21", 0.69], ["2021-08-25", 0.691], ["2021-08-29", 0.695], ["2021-09-18", 0.693], ["2021-09-21", 0.69], ["2021-09-23", 0.691], ["2021-09-27", 0.69], ["2021-09-30", 0.689], ["2021-10-02", 0.688], ["2021-10-05", 0.688], ["2021-10-07", 0.684], ["2021-10-13", 0.684], ["2021-10-16", 0.683], ["2021-10-20", 0.684], ["2021-10-30", 0.684], ["2021-10-31", 0.685], ["2021-11-03", 0.686], ["2021-11-04", 0.686], ["2021-11-18", 0.686], ["2021-11-22", 0.689], ["2021-11-24", 0.691], ["2021-11-27", 0.695], ["2021-11-30", 0.693], ["2021-12-03", 0.694], ["2021-12-07", 0.693], ["2021-12-09", 0.694], ["2021-12-19", 0.694], ["2021-12-26", 0.695], ["2021-12-29", 0.695], ["2022-01-02", 0.704], ["2022-01-04", 0.712]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6008/
|
On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, announced that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson announced new lockdowns in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is said to account for 60% of the infections in London.
The spread of a new variant has prompted concerns that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The British Medical Journal has the following to say about this possibility:
The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.
Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.
Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”
If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their website that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.
Fine Print
The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered.
The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation.
Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation.
If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution.
| true
|
2022-11-01
|
Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-01-01
|
2020-12-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-30", 0.375], ["2020-12-31", 0.317], ["2021-01-01", 0.314], ["2021-01-02", 0.289], ["2021-01-02", 0.289], ["2021-01-03", 0.287], ["2021-01-03", 0.263], ["2021-01-04", 0.268], ["2021-01-05", 0.243], ["2021-01-06", 0.204], ["2021-01-06", 0.192], ["2021-01-07", 0.194], ["2021-01-11", 0.211], ["2021-01-11", 0.211], ["2021-01-15", 0.204], ["2021-01-15", 0.208], ["2021-01-16", 0.21], ["2021-01-21", 0.203], ["2021-01-22", 0.195], ["2021-01-26", 0.198], ["2021-02-03", 0.198], ["2021-02-04", 0.19], ["2021-02-10", 0.196], ["2021-02-14", 0.195], ["2021-02-14", 0.19], ["2021-02-25", 0.185], ["2021-02-26", 0.185], ["2021-03-25", 0.182], ["2021-03-30", 0.182], ["2021-04-03", 0.182], ["2021-04-04", 0.182], ["2021-04-04", 0.175], ["2021-04-08", 0.175], ["2021-04-12", 0.175], ["2021-05-03", 0.18], ["2021-05-03", 0.18], ["2021-05-07", 0.178], ["2021-05-23", 0.178], ["2021-06-20", 0.178], ["2021-07-07", 0.175], ["2021-07-15", 0.176], ["2021-08-23", 0.176], ["2021-09-06", 0.172], ["2021-09-06", 0.172], ["2021-09-10", 0.173], ["2021-09-10", 0.173], ["2021-09-14", 0.171], ["2021-09-14", 0.17], ["2021-09-16", 0.17], ["2021-09-22", 0.168], ["2021-09-24", 0.168], ["2021-10-05", 0.168], ["2021-10-07", 0.168], ["2021-10-10", 0.165], ["2021-10-16", 0.165], ["2021-10-16", 0.164], ["2021-10-19", 0.163], ["2021-10-22", 0.159], ["2021-10-22", 0.159], ["2021-10-25", 0.159], ["2021-10-26", 0.155], ["2021-10-27", 0.155], ["2021-10-27", 0.154], ["2021-10-28", 0.151], ["2021-10-29", 0.151], ["2021-10-31", 0.148], ["2021-11-03", 0.152], ["2021-11-04", 0.153], ["2021-11-05", 0.153], ["2021-11-06", 0.149], ["2021-11-06", 0.149], ["2021-11-08", 0.152], ["2021-11-15", 0.152], ["2021-11-16", 0.147], ["2021-11-20", 0.147], ["2021-11-20", 0.146], ["2021-11-22", 0.146], ["2021-11-23", 0.142], ["2021-11-27", 0.139], ["2021-12-04", 0.138], ["2021-12-05", 0.135], ["2021-12-06", 0.135], ["2021-12-07", 0.135], ["2021-12-12", 0.133], ["2021-12-12", 0.13], ["2021-12-13", 0.13], ["2021-12-15", 0.135], ["2021-12-18", 0.135], ["2021-12-19", 0.133], ["2021-12-20", 0.133], ["2021-12-20", 0.129], ["2021-12-22", 0.129], ["2021-12-23", 0.129], ["2021-12-24", 0.127], ["2021-12-25", 0.126], ["2021-12-26", 0.124], ["2021-12-29", 0.122], ["2021-12-30", 0.122], ["2021-12-30", 0.1], ["2021-12-31", 0.083], ["2021-12-31", 0.082]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6018/
|
Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework (p. 6.) (archive link #1, archive link #2), they stated:
“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”
A gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: Wikipedia)
See: Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments? for a sceptical perspective.
|
Economics & Business
|
Question will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language ("we have made progress towards our commitment" would resolve negatively, whereas "globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls" would resolve positively).
If the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.
Fine Print
This question belongs to the Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
| true
|
2021-12-31
|
Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-01-01
|
2020-12-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-30", 0.33], ["2020-12-30", 0.317], ["2021-01-01", 0.33], ["2021-01-02", 0.34], ["2021-01-03", 0.346], ["2021-01-04", 0.337], ["2021-01-04", 0.336], ["2021-01-05", 0.346], ["2021-01-05", 0.333], ["2021-01-05", 0.329], ["2021-01-06", 0.348], ["2021-01-07", 0.367], ["2021-01-07", 0.397], ["2021-01-08", 0.402], ["2021-01-10", 0.405], ["2021-01-10", 0.414], ["2021-01-13", 0.417], ["2021-01-14", 0.411], ["2021-01-14", 0.403], ["2021-01-15", 0.398], ["2021-01-18", 0.398], ["2021-01-21", 0.407], ["2021-01-21", 0.407], ["2021-01-22", 0.418], ["2021-01-25", 0.434], ["2021-01-31", 0.436], ["2021-01-31", 0.437], ["2021-02-04", 0.44], ["2021-02-04", 0.442], ["2021-02-10", 0.44], ["2021-03-25", 0.441], ["2021-03-26", 0.444], ["2021-04-03", 0.443], ["2021-04-03", 0.443], ["2021-04-08", 0.443], ["2021-04-12", 0.443], ["2021-05-25", 0.443], ["2021-07-08", 0.443], ["2021-07-15", 0.442], ["2021-07-20", 0.442], ["2021-07-20", 0.442], ["2021-08-02", 0.445], ["2021-09-10", 0.445], ["2021-09-12", 0.446], ["2021-09-19", 0.448], ["2021-09-20", 0.45], ["2021-09-21", 0.451], ["2021-09-21", 0.45], ["2021-09-22", 0.451], ["2021-09-30", 0.451], ["2021-09-30", 0.453], ["2021-10-05", 0.452], ["2021-10-05", 0.451], ["2021-10-10", 0.451], ["2021-10-11", 0.448], ["2021-10-13", 0.448], ["2021-10-24", 0.448], ["2021-10-25", 0.437], ["2021-11-01", 0.436], ["2021-11-02", 0.429], ["2021-11-02", 0.424], ["2021-11-03", 0.412], ["2021-11-03", 0.412], ["2021-11-04", 0.413], ["2021-11-04", 0.41], ["2021-11-06", 0.41], ["2021-11-15", 0.408], ["2021-11-24", 0.401], ["2021-11-25", 0.397], ["2021-11-25", 0.396], ["2021-11-27", 0.396], ["2021-11-29", 0.396], ["2021-11-30", 0.385], ["2021-12-01", 0.384], ["2021-12-03", 0.384], ["2021-12-03", 0.364], ["2021-12-04", 0.363], ["2021-12-04", 0.349], ["2021-12-05", 0.338], ["2021-12-05", 0.3], ["2021-12-06", 0.278], ["2021-12-07", 0.266], ["2021-12-07", 0.26], ["2021-12-07", 0.252], ["2021-12-08", 0.252], ["2021-12-09", 0.235], ["2021-12-11", 0.235], ["2021-12-11", 0.222], ["2021-12-12", 0.222], ["2021-12-12", 0.213], ["2021-12-12", 0.209], ["2021-12-15", 0.201], ["2021-12-20", 0.201], ["2021-12-20", 0.194], ["2021-12-24", 0.187], ["2021-12-26", 0.183], ["2021-12-26", 0.184], ["2021-12-27", 0.178], ["2021-12-30", 0.178], ["2021-12-31", 0.109], ["2021-12-31", 0.106]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6020/
|
Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here.
Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their recommendations at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in "Evaluating Charities", the evaluation criteria are described in "Evaluation Criteria".
|
Environment & Energy
|
Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities are in ACE: Top and Standout charities by Jan 1, 2022.
Fine Print
This question belongs to the Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
| true
|
2021-12-31
|
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-11-22
|
2020-12-24
|
["https://www.wildanimalinitiative.org/development-director", "https://animalcharityevaluators.org/blog/announcing-our-2022-charity-recommendations/"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-30", 0.45], ["2020-12-30", 0.57], ["2020-12-30", 0.568], ["2021-01-01", 0.524], ["2021-01-02", 0.524], ["2021-01-02", 0.521], ["2021-01-03", 0.505], ["2021-01-04", 0.505], ["2021-01-04", 0.505], ["2021-01-05", 0.5], ["2021-01-05", 0.508], ["2021-01-05", 0.508], ["2021-01-05", 0.512], ["2021-01-07", 0.512], ["2021-01-07", 0.565], ["2021-01-08", 0.566], ["2021-01-08", 0.566], ["2021-01-08", 0.566], ["2021-01-09", 0.564], ["2021-01-09", 0.566], ["2021-01-10", 0.567], ["2021-01-10", 0.567], ["2021-01-10", 0.579], ["2021-01-15", 0.58], ["2021-01-17", 0.581], ["2021-01-18", 0.581], ["2021-01-25", 0.579], ["2021-01-28", 0.584], ["2021-02-10", 0.584], ["2021-02-10", 0.582], ["2021-02-14", 0.58], ["2021-02-14", 0.588], ["2021-03-03", 0.593], ["2021-03-04", 0.598], ["2021-03-08", 0.598], ["2021-03-08", 0.606], ["2021-04-02", 0.606], ["2021-04-04", 0.61], ["2021-04-05", 0.61], ["2021-04-05", 0.612], ["2021-04-05", 0.612], ["2021-04-06", 0.613], ["2021-04-06", 0.614], ["2021-04-06", 0.615], ["2021-04-07", 0.615], ["2021-04-07", 0.617], ["2021-04-09", 0.62], ["2021-04-12", 0.62], ["2021-06-02", 0.62], ["2021-07-08", 0.62], ["2021-07-19", 0.62], ["2021-07-19", 0.62], ["2021-07-20", 0.62], ["2021-09-30", 0.627], ["2021-10-13", 0.627], ["2021-11-01", 0.631], ["2021-11-02", 0.631], ["2021-11-02", 0.632], ["2021-11-02", 0.633], ["2021-11-03", 0.632], ["2021-11-18", 0.639], ["2021-11-18", 0.639], ["2021-11-19", 0.64], ["2021-11-27", 0.645], ["2021-11-27", 0.645], ["2021-11-27", 0.646], ["2021-11-29", 0.649], ["2021-12-04", 0.649], ["2021-12-04", 0.659], ["2022-01-03", 0.657], ["2022-01-04", 0.657], ["2022-01-07", 0.658], ["2022-01-07", 0.659], ["2022-02-19", 0.658], ["2022-02-28", 0.658], ["2022-02-28", 0.659], ["2022-03-01", 0.655], ["2022-03-02", 0.654], ["2022-03-30", 0.654], ["2022-03-31", 0.658], ["2022-04-03", 0.661], ["2022-04-04", 0.671], ["2022-04-17", 0.671], ["2022-04-17", 0.675], ["2022-04-17", 0.675], ["2022-04-18", 0.677], ["2022-04-25", 0.677], ["2022-05-24", 0.679], ["2022-05-24", 0.679], ["2022-05-24", 0.677], ["2022-06-11", 0.678], ["2022-06-14", 0.678], ["2022-06-21", 0.675], ["2022-06-21", 0.678], ["2022-07-15", 0.678], ["2022-07-23", 0.669], ["2022-09-19", 0.669], ["2022-09-21", 0.669], ["2022-10-02", 0.671], ["2022-10-16", 0.671], ["2022-10-18", 0.681]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6021/
|
Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found here.
Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their recommendations at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in "Evaluation Charities", the evaluation criteria are described in "Evaluation Criteria".
|
Environment & Energy
|
Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities are in ACE: Top and Standout charities by Jan 1, 2025.
Fine Print
This question belongs to the Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
| true
|
2024-12-31
|
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-11-29
|
2020-12-24
|
["https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/faunalytics/", "https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/fish-welfare-initiative/", "https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/", "https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-30", 0.4], ["2020-12-30", 0.43], ["2020-12-30", 0.45], ["2021-01-01", 0.418], ["2021-01-01", 0.414], ["2021-01-02", 0.42], ["2021-01-02", 0.42], ["2021-01-02", 0.427], ["2021-01-03", 0.421], ["2021-01-04", 0.421], ["2021-01-04", 0.419], ["2021-01-05", 0.406], ["2021-01-05", 0.406], ["2021-01-05", 0.41], ["2021-01-06", 0.383], ["2021-01-06", 0.385], ["2021-01-06", 0.368], ["2021-01-06", 0.373], ["2021-01-07", 0.373], ["2021-01-07", 0.372], ["2021-01-07", 0.36], ["2021-01-08", 0.309], ["2021-01-08", 0.299], ["2021-01-08", 0.312], ["2021-01-08", 0.314], ["2021-01-09", 0.312], ["2021-01-13", 0.306], ["2021-01-14", 0.299], ["2021-01-15", 0.303], ["2021-01-16", 0.304], ["2021-01-25", 0.3], ["2021-01-25", 0.3], ["2021-01-25", 0.296], ["2021-01-26", 0.297], ["2021-02-04", 0.302], ["2021-02-10", 0.304], ["2021-02-10", 0.304], ["2021-03-23", 0.305], ["2021-03-24", 0.301], ["2021-04-01", 0.301], ["2021-04-08", 0.296], ["2021-04-11", 0.296], ["2021-04-13", 0.296], ["2021-04-26", 0.303], ["2021-04-27", 0.304], ["2021-04-27", 0.303], ["2021-05-23", 0.303], ["2021-05-23", 0.303], ["2021-05-23", 0.304], ["2021-06-13", 0.3], ["2021-06-13", 0.301], ["2021-06-18", 0.301], ["2021-06-29", 0.297], ["2021-08-16", 0.294], ["2021-08-16", 0.293], ["2021-09-09", 0.293], ["2021-09-19", 0.289], ["2021-10-05", 0.289], ["2021-10-05", 0.285], ["2021-10-07", 0.285], ["2021-10-13", 0.285], ["2021-10-16", 0.285], ["2021-10-27", 0.281], ["2021-10-30", 0.281], ["2021-11-02", 0.284], ["2021-11-05", 0.284], ["2021-11-08", 0.285], ["2021-11-08", 0.284], ["2021-11-11", 0.284], ["2021-11-13", 0.281], ["2021-11-15", 0.281], ["2021-11-22", 0.278], ["2021-11-22", 0.278], ["2021-11-23", 0.277], ["2021-11-25", 0.277], ["2021-11-27", 0.276], ["2021-11-27", 0.277], ["2021-12-04", 0.277], ["2021-12-04", 0.276], ["2021-12-04", 0.276], ["2021-12-05", 0.276], ["2021-12-05", 0.274], ["2021-12-06", 0.274], ["2021-12-08", 0.273], ["2021-12-08", 0.272], ["2021-12-10", 0.272], ["2021-12-10", 0.271], ["2021-12-15", 0.271], ["2021-12-18", 0.269], ["2021-12-19", 0.269], ["2021-12-20", 0.268], ["2021-12-22", 0.268], ["2021-12-25", 0.267], ["2021-12-26", 0.267], ["2021-12-28", 0.265], ["2021-12-29", 0.265], ["2021-12-30", 0.261], ["2021-12-31", 0.257], ["2021-12-31", 0.257], ["2021-12-31", 0.251], ["2021-12-31", 0.248]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6023/
|
Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their recommendations at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in "Evaluation Charities", the evaluation criteria are described in "Evaluation Criteria".
As of November 2020, the Good Food Fund, which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below "Top Charity".
|
Other
|
By "primarily operating in China" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, ProVeg International works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution.
The question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in ACE's recommendations
Fine Print
This question belongs to the Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
| true
|
2021-12-31
|
Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-01-20
|
2020-12-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-30", 0.4], ["2020-12-30", 0.27], ["2020-12-30", 0.258], ["2020-12-30", 0.312], ["2020-12-31", 0.241], ["2020-12-31", 0.224], ["2021-01-01", 0.198], ["2021-01-01", 0.187], ["2021-01-02", 0.186], ["2021-01-02", 0.186], ["2021-01-02", 0.174], ["2021-01-02", 0.172], ["2021-01-03", 0.165], ["2021-01-03", 0.164], ["2021-01-04", 0.16], ["2021-01-04", 0.158], ["2021-01-04", 0.156], ["2021-01-04", 0.156], ["2021-01-04", 0.163], ["2021-01-05", 0.165], ["2021-01-05", 0.165], ["2021-01-05", 0.166], ["2021-01-05", 0.163], ["2021-01-05", 0.163], ["2021-01-06", 0.16], ["2021-01-06", 0.16], ["2021-01-06", 0.152], ["2021-01-07", 0.153], ["2021-01-07", 0.153], ["2021-01-07", 0.155], ["2021-01-08", 0.155], ["2021-01-12", 0.156], ["2021-01-12", 0.156], ["2021-01-13", 0.158], ["2021-01-20", 0.157], ["2021-01-20", 0.157], ["2021-02-04", 0.166], ["2021-02-10", 0.166], ["2021-02-14", 0.17], ["2021-02-27", 0.17], ["2021-02-28", 0.174], ["2021-03-25", 0.173], ["2021-04-01", 0.174], ["2021-04-08", 0.175], ["2021-04-10", 0.175], ["2021-05-23", 0.175], ["2021-05-30", 0.175], ["2021-06-29", 0.175], ["2021-07-07", 0.175], ["2021-07-13", 0.173], ["2021-07-15", 0.174], ["2021-07-20", 0.174], ["2021-07-20", 0.173], ["2021-07-20", 0.173], ["2021-07-20", 0.169], ["2021-08-05", 0.167], ["2021-08-11", 0.167], ["2021-08-16", 0.176], ["2021-08-26", 0.177], ["2021-09-10", 0.177], ["2021-09-17", 0.176], ["2021-09-19", 0.177], ["2021-10-05", 0.177], ["2021-10-07", 0.177], ["2021-10-08", 0.176], ["2021-10-08", 0.176], ["2021-10-10", 0.176], ["2021-10-16", 0.175], ["2021-10-26", 0.172], ["2021-10-28", 0.172], ["2021-10-28", 0.17], ["2021-10-30", 0.171], ["2021-11-01", 0.168], ["2021-11-01", 0.168], ["2021-11-02", 0.167], ["2021-11-02", 0.165], ["2021-11-02", 0.165], ["2021-11-02", 0.163], ["2021-11-03", 0.155], ["2021-11-03", 0.159], ["2021-11-04", 0.159], ["2021-11-06", 0.162], ["2021-11-07", 0.162], ["2021-11-07", 0.16], ["2021-11-08", 0.16], ["2021-11-11", 0.163], ["2021-11-11", 0.161], ["2021-11-13", 0.159], ["2021-11-13", 0.159], ["2021-11-13", 0.159], ["2021-11-13", 0.158], ["2021-11-14", 0.155], ["2021-11-14", 0.154], ["2021-11-15", 0.153], ["2021-11-16", 0.153], ["2021-11-17", 0.153], ["2021-11-18", 0.131], ["2021-11-18", 0.126], ["2021-11-18", 0.12], ["2021-11-18", 0.12], ["2021-11-18", 0.12]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6024/
|
Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector.
One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback.
|
Other
|
Whether an event is a "scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances" will be resolved per the "I know it when I see it" standard from Jacobellis v. Ohio, possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution.
Fine Print
This question belongs to the Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
Edit 2020-01-03: Replaced "In the case of disagreement among Metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution" with "In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution".
| true
|
2021-11-18
|
Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-01-20
|
2020-12-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-30", 0.175], ["2020-12-31", 0.17], ["2021-01-01", 0.16], ["2021-01-01", 0.153], ["2021-01-02", 0.156], ["2021-01-03", 0.158], ["2021-01-03", 0.143], ["2021-01-04", 0.161], ["2021-01-05", 0.165], ["2021-01-06", 0.164], ["2021-01-06", 0.161], ["2021-01-07", 0.156], ["2021-01-08", 0.157], ["2021-01-11", 0.156], ["2021-01-31", 0.156], ["2021-02-04", 0.164], ["2021-02-05", 0.172], ["2021-02-08", 0.172], ["2021-02-09", 0.178], ["2021-02-10", 0.182], ["2021-02-11", 0.182], ["2021-02-14", 0.183], ["2021-02-15", 0.182], ["2021-02-24", 0.183], ["2021-02-25", 0.183], ["2021-02-26", 0.184], ["2021-02-27", 0.185], ["2021-02-28", 0.189], ["2021-03-13", 0.188], ["2021-03-13", 0.188], ["2021-03-25", 0.188], ["2021-04-01", 0.189], ["2021-04-01", 0.191], ["2021-04-03", 0.191], ["2021-04-03", 0.191], ["2021-04-08", 0.191], ["2021-04-10", 0.191], ["2021-04-16", 0.191], ["2021-04-22", 0.193], ["2021-05-20", 0.191], ["2021-05-23", 0.191], ["2021-05-24", 0.191], ["2021-05-30", 0.191], ["2021-06-06", 0.192], ["2021-06-07", 0.192], ["2021-06-16", 0.192], ["2021-06-29", 0.191], ["2021-07-11", 0.19], ["2021-07-11", 0.189], ["2021-07-13", 0.189], ["2021-07-13", 0.188], ["2021-07-15", 0.188], ["2021-07-20", 0.188], ["2021-07-20", 0.188], ["2021-09-10", 0.188], ["2021-09-19", 0.188], ["2021-09-19", 0.189], ["2021-09-28", 0.187], ["2021-10-04", 0.187], ["2021-10-04", 0.185], ["2021-10-08", 0.187], ["2021-10-10", 0.186], ["2021-10-13", 0.186], ["2021-10-14", 0.186], ["2021-10-16", 0.183], ["2021-10-26", 0.182], ["2021-11-01", 0.182], ["2021-11-02", 0.179], ["2021-11-02", 0.175], ["2021-11-03", 0.174], ["2021-11-06", 0.176], ["2021-11-08", 0.177], ["2021-11-11", 0.176], ["2021-11-13", 0.173], ["2021-11-13", 0.174], ["2021-11-15", 0.171], ["2021-11-15", 0.171], ["2021-11-18", 0.17], ["2021-11-22", 0.166], ["2021-11-22", 0.165], ["2021-11-25", 0.165], ["2021-11-25", 0.162], ["2021-11-26", 0.161], ["2021-11-27", 0.16], ["2021-12-04", 0.159], ["2021-12-04", 0.158], ["2021-12-07", 0.158], ["2021-12-08", 0.157], ["2021-12-12", 0.155], ["2021-12-15", 0.154], ["2021-12-15", 0.155], ["2021-12-17", 0.159], ["2021-12-17", 0.158], ["2021-12-20", 0.155], ["2021-12-24", 0.154], ["2021-12-26", 0.154], ["2021-12-26", 0.151], ["2021-12-27", 0.151], ["2021-12-29", 0.151], ["2021-12-31", 0.117], ["2021-12-31", 0.103]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6025/
|
Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector.
One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback.
ACE explicitly includes "the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)" as part of "Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture", one of their seven evaluation criteria during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to Encompass.
|
Social Sciences
|
Whether an event is a "scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination" will be resolved per the "I know it when I see it" standard from Jacobellis v. Ohio, possibly after consulting with ACE. In the case of disagreement among metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution.
Fine Print
This question belongs to the Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
| true
|
2021-12-31
|
Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-11-21
|
2020-12-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-27", 0.8], ["2020-12-29", 0.854], ["2020-12-30", 0.867], ["2020-12-31", 0.863], ["2021-01-02", 0.849], ["2021-01-03", 0.843], ["2021-01-04", 0.842], ["2021-01-06", 0.848], ["2021-01-08", 0.851], ["2021-01-09", 0.854], ["2021-01-10", 0.858], ["2021-01-11", 0.861], ["2021-01-13", 0.862], ["2021-01-14", 0.864], ["2021-01-16", 0.865], ["2021-01-17", 0.868], ["2021-01-19", 0.868], ["2021-01-20", 0.868], ["2021-01-22", 0.87], ["2021-01-23", 0.871], ["2021-01-25", 0.871], ["2021-01-27", 0.873], ["2021-01-28", 0.87], ["2021-01-29", 0.869], ["2021-01-30", 0.87], ["2021-01-31", 0.87], ["2021-02-01", 0.869], ["2021-02-03", 0.869], ["2021-02-04", 0.868], ["2021-02-05", 0.867], ["2021-02-07", 0.869], ["2021-02-07", 0.872], ["2021-02-09", 0.871], ["2021-02-10", 0.872], ["2021-02-12", 0.873], ["2021-02-14", 0.873], ["2021-02-15", 0.873], ["2021-02-16", 0.871], ["2021-02-17", 0.872], ["2021-02-18", 0.872], ["2021-02-20", 0.871], ["2021-02-23", 0.871], ["2021-02-24", 0.871], ["2021-02-28", 0.871], ["2021-03-05", 0.87], ["2021-03-07", 0.87], ["2021-03-10", 0.871], ["2021-03-16", 0.871], ["2021-03-16", 0.872], ["2021-03-20", 0.872], ["2021-03-26", 0.873], ["2021-03-26", 0.873], ["2021-03-30", 0.873], ["2021-03-30", 0.873], ["2021-04-05", 0.871], ["2021-04-05", 0.871], ["2021-04-07", 0.871], ["2021-04-08", 0.871], ["2021-04-09", 0.867], ["2021-04-10", 0.867], ["2021-04-12", 0.867], ["2021-04-17", 0.867], ["2021-04-19", 0.867], ["2021-04-20", 0.868], ["2021-04-20", 0.868], ["2021-04-23", 0.868], ["2021-04-25", 0.869], ["2021-04-26", 0.869], ["2021-04-29", 0.868], ["2021-05-01", 0.868], ["2021-05-02", 0.869], ["2021-05-03", 0.869], ["2021-05-05", 0.869], ["2021-05-08", 0.869], ["2021-05-12", 0.868], ["2021-05-12", 0.868], ["2021-05-15", 0.869], ["2021-05-16", 0.869], ["2021-05-18", 0.869], ["2021-05-22", 0.87], ["2021-05-23", 0.87], ["2021-05-25", 0.871], ["2021-05-28", 0.87], ["2021-05-29", 0.871], ["2021-06-01", 0.872], ["2021-06-03", 0.87], ["2021-06-04", 0.872], ["2021-06-06", 0.873], ["2021-06-07", 0.874], ["2021-06-12", 0.874], ["2021-06-13", 0.875], ["2021-06-15", 0.875], ["2021-06-16", 0.876], ["2021-06-18", 0.877], ["2021-06-20", 0.877], ["2021-06-22", 0.878], ["2021-06-23", 0.88], ["2021-06-25", 0.881], ["2021-06-26", 0.882], ["2021-06-28", 0.883], ["2021-06-29", 0.897]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6031/
|
A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A pre-print suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.
We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.
Another variant under concern is 501.V2, which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 South African Online Portal has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:
The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
Resolution
This question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.
For a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.
To establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.
See this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility here.
Fine Print
In the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.
Only evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution.
Meta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research).
| true
|
2021-06-29
|
Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-06-26
|
2020-12-26
|
["https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand\u2026", "https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew\u2026", "https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summar"]
|
binary
|
[["2020-12-30", 0.25], ["2020-12-31", 0.431], ["2021-01-02", 0.391], ["2021-01-03", 0.382], ["2021-01-05", 0.375], ["2021-01-07", 0.392], ["2021-01-08", 0.392], ["2021-01-11", 0.391], ["2021-01-13", 0.375], ["2021-01-15", 0.376], ["2021-01-17", 0.379], ["2021-01-18", 0.379], ["2021-01-20", 0.38], ["2021-01-22", 0.398], ["2021-01-23", 0.394], ["2021-01-25", 0.401], ["2021-01-26", 0.401], ["2021-01-28", 0.402], ["2021-01-29", 0.406], ["2021-01-30", 0.414], ["2021-02-01", 0.408], ["2021-02-04", 0.4], ["2021-02-06", 0.4], ["2021-02-09", 0.4], ["2021-02-11", 0.407], ["2021-02-12", 0.41], ["2021-02-13", 0.41], ["2021-02-15", 0.413], ["2021-02-17", 0.412], ["2021-02-19", 0.415], ["2021-02-21", 0.415], ["2021-02-22", 0.415], ["2021-02-23", 0.415], ["2021-02-25", 0.416], ["2021-02-26", 0.418], ["2021-02-28", 0.42], ["2021-03-01", 0.42], ["2021-03-02", 0.42], ["2021-03-08", 0.42], ["2021-03-10", 0.422], ["2021-03-12", 0.422], ["2021-03-14", 0.424], ["2021-03-16", 0.423], ["2021-03-17", 0.427], ["2021-03-19", 0.425], ["2021-03-21", 0.426], ["2021-03-23", 0.426], ["2021-03-26", 0.427], ["2021-03-28", 0.427], ["2021-03-29", 0.428], ["2021-03-31", 0.43], ["2021-04-01", 0.43], ["2021-04-03", 0.43], ["2021-04-06", 0.432], ["2021-04-07", 0.432], ["2021-04-08", 0.432], ["2021-04-10", 0.434], ["2021-04-12", 0.435], ["2021-04-13", 0.435], ["2021-04-14", 0.437], ["2021-04-16", 0.444], ["2021-04-18", 0.449], ["2021-04-19", 0.453], ["2021-04-20", 0.464], ["2021-04-21", 0.47], ["2021-04-23", 0.471], ["2021-04-24", 0.472], ["2021-04-25", 0.472], ["2021-04-27", 0.473], ["2021-04-28", 0.5], ["2021-04-30", 0.521], ["2021-05-01", 0.524], ["2021-05-02", 0.526], ["2021-05-05", 0.529], ["2021-05-06", 0.525], ["2021-05-08", 0.527], ["2021-05-10", 0.525], ["2021-05-11", 0.524], ["2021-05-13", 0.523], ["2021-05-15", 0.522], ["2021-05-16", 0.523], ["2021-05-18", 0.52], ["2021-05-20", 0.515], ["2021-05-21", 0.515], ["2021-05-23", 0.513], ["2021-05-24", 0.511], ["2021-05-26", 0.5], ["2021-05-28", 0.488], ["2021-05-30", 0.488], ["2021-06-01", 0.483], ["2021-06-03", 0.476], ["2021-06-05", 0.473], ["2021-06-07", 0.469], ["2021-06-09", 0.454], ["2021-06-10", 0.45], ["2021-06-12", 0.449], ["2021-06-15", 0.445], ["2021-06-17", 0.422], ["2021-06-19", 0.409], ["2021-06-21", 0.393], ["2021-06-23", 0.373]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6051/
|
In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…
In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…
|
Politics & Governance
|
Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summar
| true
|
2021-06-23
|
Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-06-13
|
2020-12-27
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-03", 0.55], ["2021-01-03", 0.51], ["2021-01-04", 0.498], ["2021-01-05", 0.496], ["2021-01-05", 0.522], ["2021-01-06", 0.523], ["2021-01-06", 0.524], ["2021-01-07", 0.528], ["2021-01-07", 0.531], ["2021-01-08", 0.531], ["2021-01-09", 0.536], ["2021-01-10", 0.536], ["2021-01-11", 0.545], ["2021-01-12", 0.554], ["2021-01-13", 0.56], ["2021-01-14", 0.567], ["2021-01-15", 0.567], ["2021-01-17", 0.573], ["2021-01-17", 0.573], ["2021-01-18", 0.576], ["2021-01-19", 0.585], ["2021-01-19", 0.591], ["2021-01-20", 0.592], ["2021-01-20", 0.586], ["2021-01-21", 0.587], ["2021-01-21", 0.59], ["2021-01-22", 0.594], ["2021-01-22", 0.59], ["2021-01-22", 0.59], ["2021-01-23", 0.585], ["2021-01-23", 0.585], ["2021-01-24", 0.585], ["2021-01-24", 0.588], ["2021-01-25", 0.594], ["2021-01-25", 0.594], ["2021-01-26", 0.594], ["2021-01-27", 0.596], ["2021-01-27", 0.597], ["2021-01-28", 0.601], ["2021-01-29", 0.609], ["2021-01-29", 0.609], ["2021-01-29", 0.616], ["2021-01-30", 0.625], ["2021-01-31", 0.627], ["2021-01-31", 0.629], ["2021-02-02", 0.636], ["2021-02-04", 0.636], ["2021-02-05", 0.638], ["2021-02-05", 0.638], ["2021-02-06", 0.638], ["2021-02-07", 0.638], ["2021-02-07", 0.639], ["2021-02-08", 0.639], ["2021-02-10", 0.638], ["2021-02-10", 0.637], ["2021-02-11", 0.637], ["2021-02-12", 0.637], ["2021-02-12", 0.64], ["2021-02-13", 0.64], ["2021-02-13", 0.64], ["2021-02-20", 0.641], ["2021-02-22", 0.64], ["2021-02-23", 0.64], ["2021-02-23", 0.64], ["2021-02-24", 0.639], ["2021-02-24", 0.636], ["2021-02-25", 0.636], ["2021-02-25", 0.634], ["2021-02-26", 0.634], ["2021-02-26", 0.636], ["2021-02-27", 0.636], ["2021-02-28", 0.64], ["2021-02-28", 0.638], ["2021-03-01", 0.638], ["2021-03-02", 0.636], ["2021-03-03", 0.636], ["2021-03-03", 0.634], ["2021-03-04", 0.634], ["2021-03-05", 0.632], ["2021-03-05", 0.632], ["2021-03-06", 0.635], ["2021-03-06", 0.636], ["2021-03-06", 0.635], ["2021-03-07", 0.635], ["2021-03-07", 0.634], ["2021-03-08", 0.638], ["2021-03-08", 0.639], ["2021-03-09", 0.644], ["2021-03-09", 0.643], ["2021-03-09", 0.643], ["2021-03-10", 0.642], ["2021-03-10", 0.643], ["2021-03-11", 0.643], ["2021-03-12", 0.643], ["2021-03-13", 0.645], ["2021-03-13", 0.645], ["2021-03-14", 0.642], ["2021-03-19", 0.641], ["2021-03-20", 0.642], ["2021-03-21", 0.646], ["2021-03-21", 0.648]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6074/
|
On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.
In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition gets to form the ruling goverment, with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 on the official gov.il site
| true
|
2021-03-22
|
Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-06-13
|
2020-12-29
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-02-13", 0.6], ["2021-02-13", 0.6], ["2021-02-13", 0.73], ["2021-02-13", 0.73], ["2021-02-14", 0.648], ["2021-02-14", 0.558], ["2021-02-14", 0.503], ["2021-02-15", 0.503], ["2021-02-15", 0.46], ["2021-02-15", 0.434], ["2021-02-15", 0.469], ["2021-02-15", 0.466], ["2021-02-15", 0.471], ["2021-02-15", 0.454], ["2021-02-16", 0.44], ["2021-02-17", 0.44], ["2021-02-18", 0.405], ["2021-02-18", 0.405], ["2021-02-28", 0.393], ["2021-03-04", 0.412], ["2021-03-12", 0.408], ["2021-03-12", 0.397], ["2021-04-02", 0.397], ["2021-04-03", 0.387], ["2021-04-08", 0.387], ["2021-04-11", 0.387], ["2021-05-12", 0.387], ["2021-05-12", 0.431], ["2021-05-12", 0.433], ["2021-05-12", 0.433], ["2021-05-12", 0.477], ["2021-05-12", 0.48], ["2021-05-12", 0.48], ["2021-05-12", 0.491], ["2021-05-12", 0.492], ["2021-05-12", 0.499], ["2021-05-12", 0.513], ["2021-05-12", 0.535], ["2021-05-12", 0.587], ["2021-05-13", 0.609], ["2021-05-13", 0.618], ["2021-05-13", 0.618], ["2021-05-13", 0.624], ["2021-05-13", 0.622], ["2021-05-15", 0.619], ["2021-05-15", 0.633], ["2021-05-21", 0.665], ["2021-05-21", 0.665], ["2021-05-23", 0.667], ["2021-06-08", 0.693], ["2021-06-12", 0.693], ["2021-06-13", 0.695], ["2021-06-13", 0.7], ["2021-06-13", 0.7], ["2021-06-13", 0.705], ["2021-06-13", 0.714]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6092/
|
The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy ("Core CPI") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.
The "Core CPI" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).
|
Economics & Business
|
This question resolves "yes" if the 12-month "Core CPI" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.
This question resolves "no" if the 12-month "Core CPI" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023
| true
|
2023-12-31
|
Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-12-31
|
2020-12-30
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-02", 0.15], ["2021-01-04", 0.283], ["2021-01-05", 0.284], ["2021-01-07", 0.282], ["2021-01-09", 0.282], ["2021-01-11", 0.28], ["2021-01-13", 0.28], ["2021-01-14", 0.28], ["2021-01-17", 0.274], ["2021-01-18", 0.264], ["2021-01-20", 0.254], ["2021-01-22", 0.252], ["2021-01-25", 0.259], ["2021-01-26", 0.26], ["2021-01-28", 0.262], ["2021-01-31", 0.262], ["2021-02-01", 0.261], ["2021-02-03", 0.257], ["2021-02-05", 0.259], ["2021-02-07", 0.254], ["2021-02-10", 0.253], ["2021-02-17", 0.253], ["2021-02-18", 0.253], ["2021-02-20", 0.25], ["2021-02-22", 0.249], ["2021-02-25", 0.249], ["2021-03-13", 0.248], ["2021-03-16", 0.246], ["2021-03-19", 0.255], ["2021-03-21", 0.259], ["2021-03-22", 0.258], ["2021-03-31", 0.258], ["2021-04-02", 0.26], ["2021-04-04", 0.26], ["2021-04-06", 0.257], ["2021-04-08", 0.257], ["2021-04-10", 0.258], ["2021-04-12", 0.258], ["2021-04-14", 0.255], ["2021-04-16", 0.253], ["2021-04-19", 0.252], ["2021-04-25", 0.251], ["2021-04-28", 0.253], ["2021-05-03", 0.253], ["2021-05-05", 0.252], ["2021-05-06", 0.253], ["2021-05-09", 0.252], ["2021-05-16", 0.252], ["2021-05-19", 0.253], ["2021-05-22", 0.253], ["2021-05-23", 0.253], ["2021-05-31", 0.253], ["2021-06-01", 0.255], ["2021-06-04", 0.254], ["2021-06-08", 0.253], ["2021-06-10", 0.253], ["2021-06-13", 0.252], ["2021-06-20", 0.255], ["2021-06-20", 0.255], ["2021-06-24", 0.255], ["2021-06-25", 0.256], ["2021-06-28", 0.254], ["2021-07-01", 0.252], ["2021-07-09", 0.251], ["2021-07-12", 0.251], ["2021-07-18", 0.251], ["2021-07-20", 0.251], ["2021-07-22", 0.25], ["2021-07-24", 0.25], ["2021-07-25", 0.25], ["2021-07-28", 0.25], ["2021-07-30", 0.247], ["2021-07-31", 0.246], ["2021-08-03", 0.246], ["2021-08-05", 0.245], ["2021-08-08", 0.244], ["2021-08-14", 0.244], ["2021-08-19", 0.244], ["2021-08-21", 0.231], ["2021-08-23", 0.232], ["2021-08-26", 0.23], ["2021-08-27", 0.229], ["2021-09-01", 0.229], ["2021-09-04", 0.229], ["2021-09-08", 0.227], ["2021-09-11", 0.227], ["2021-09-13", 0.226], ["2021-09-15", 0.222], ["2021-09-17", 0.221], ["2021-09-19", 0.221], ["2021-09-22", 0.218], ["2021-09-23", 0.216], ["2021-09-26", 0.215], ["2021-09-28", 0.212], ["2021-09-30", 0.213], ["2021-10-02", 0.209], ["2021-10-05", 0.209], ["2021-10-08", 0.209], ["2021-10-10", 0.206], ["2021-10-13", 0.186], ["2021-10-14", 0.175]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6094/
|
Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) there is a draft legislation has been passed in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for "discriminating Russian media's content". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny published a video on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively
| true
|
2021-10-14
|
Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2023-01-01
|
2020-12-31
|
["https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/13/australian-police-try-to-understand-conspiracies-that-led-to-shooting-deaths-of-two-officers-and-four-others", "https://old.reddit.com/r/QAnonCasualties/comments/xbiy5s/tw_my_qdad_snapped_and_killed_my_family_this/io0q199/"]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-13", 0.7], ["2021-01-15", 0.45], ["2021-01-17", 0.396], ["2021-01-18", 0.404], ["2021-01-19", 0.425], ["2021-01-22", 0.418], ["2021-01-23", 0.414], ["2021-01-26", 0.398], ["2021-02-01", 0.404], ["2021-02-09", 0.404], ["2021-02-11", 0.408], ["2021-02-14", 0.408], ["2021-02-15", 0.394], ["2021-03-16", 0.394], ["2021-03-23", 0.386], ["2021-04-04", 0.376], ["2021-04-04", 0.376], ["2021-04-09", 0.376], ["2021-04-11", 0.376], ["2021-04-12", 0.376], ["2021-04-15", 0.376], ["2021-05-30", 0.385], ["2021-07-02", 0.383], ["2021-07-08", 0.383], ["2021-07-15", 0.383], ["2021-07-16", 0.388], ["2021-07-19", 0.391], ["2021-07-20", 0.39], ["2021-07-24", 0.39], ["2021-07-24", 0.384], ["2021-08-24", 0.384], ["2021-08-24", 0.374], ["2021-08-26", 0.374], ["2021-08-26", 0.37], ["2021-09-01", 0.372], ["2021-09-04", 0.372], ["2021-09-08", 0.371], ["2021-09-09", 0.371], ["2021-09-13", 0.371], ["2021-09-29", 0.366], ["2021-09-30", 0.355], ["2021-10-04", 0.355], ["2021-10-05", 0.354], ["2021-10-13", 0.354], ["2021-10-14", 0.354], ["2021-10-25", 0.354], ["2021-10-26", 0.346], ["2021-11-03", 0.351], ["2021-11-03", 0.351], ["2021-12-25", 0.35], ["2021-12-26", 0.348], ["2021-12-27", 0.346], ["2021-12-30", 0.342], ["2022-01-01", 0.338], ["2022-01-02", 0.331], ["2022-01-03", 0.327], ["2022-01-05", 0.317], ["2022-01-06", 0.319], ["2022-01-07", 0.319], ["2022-01-09", 0.322], ["2022-01-18", 0.321], ["2022-01-23", 0.321], ["2022-01-26", 0.32], ["2022-01-28", 0.315], ["2022-02-01", 0.311], ["2022-02-02", 0.306], ["2022-02-03", 0.305], ["2022-02-11", 0.305], ["2022-02-11", 0.301], ["2022-02-15", 0.301], ["2022-02-18", 0.303], ["2022-02-19", 0.293], ["2022-02-22", 0.292], ["2022-02-23", 0.288], ["2022-02-24", 0.287], ["2022-02-25", 0.287], ["2022-02-27", 0.28], ["2022-02-28", 0.279], ["2022-03-02", 0.277], ["2022-03-02", 0.272], ["2022-03-04", 0.272], ["2022-03-05", 0.268], ["2022-03-06", 0.264], ["2022-03-08", 0.257], ["2022-03-10", 0.257], ["2022-03-11", 0.249], ["2022-03-13", 0.246], ["2022-03-14", 0.245], ["2022-03-16", 0.245], ["2022-03-17", 0.241], ["2022-03-18", 0.234], ["2022-03-19", 0.232], ["2022-03-21", 0.229], ["2022-03-22", 0.226], ["2022-03-24", 0.222], ["2022-03-25", 0.22], ["2022-03-26", 0.218], ["2022-03-28", 0.218], ["2022-03-29", 0.218], ["2022-03-31", 0.17], ["2022-04-01", 0.166]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6102/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Security & Defense
|
U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies warned in May of 2020 of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British telecoms masts have been burned and British telecoms workers menaced; much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came the bombing in Nashville of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.
Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?
Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?
Resolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is "in large part" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports.
| true
|
2022-04-01
|
Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-03-13
|
2020-12-31
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-13", 0.7], ["2021-01-14", 0.625], ["2021-01-14", 0.567], ["2021-01-15", 0.571], ["2021-01-15", 0.48], ["2021-01-16", 0.494], ["2021-01-16", 0.531], ["2021-01-17", 0.557], ["2021-01-17", 0.562], ["2021-01-18", 0.564], ["2021-01-19", 0.568], ["2021-01-19", 0.566], ["2021-01-19", 0.558], ["2021-01-20", 0.545], ["2021-01-20", 0.544], ["2021-01-21", 0.538], ["2021-01-22", 0.526], ["2021-01-22", 0.529], ["2021-01-22", 0.528], ["2021-01-23", 0.524], ["2021-01-23", 0.515], ["2021-01-23", 0.507], ["2021-01-24", 0.507], ["2021-01-24", 0.477], ["2021-01-24", 0.475], ["2021-01-25", 0.466], ["2021-01-25", 0.466], ["2021-01-26", 0.414], ["2021-01-26", 0.414], ["2021-01-26", 0.407], ["2021-01-27", 0.397], ["2021-01-27", 0.39], ["2021-01-27", 0.386], ["2021-01-28", 0.385], ["2021-01-28", 0.385], ["2021-01-29", 0.376], ["2021-01-29", 0.373], ["2021-01-30", 0.373], ["2021-01-30", 0.371], ["2021-01-31", 0.371], ["2021-01-31", 0.368], ["2021-02-01", 0.365], ["2021-02-01", 0.374], ["2021-02-01", 0.377], ["2021-02-02", 0.373], ["2021-02-02", 0.373], ["2021-02-03", 0.371], ["2021-02-03", 0.37], ["2021-02-03", 0.368], ["2021-02-03", 0.364], ["2021-02-04", 0.366], ["2021-02-04", 0.373], ["2021-02-05", 0.377], ["2021-02-06", 0.377], ["2021-02-06", 0.382], ["2021-02-06", 0.382], ["2021-02-06", 0.382], ["2021-02-07", 0.382], ["2021-02-07", 0.382], ["2021-02-08", 0.385], ["2021-02-08", 0.388], ["2021-02-08", 0.386], ["2021-02-09", 0.387], ["2021-02-09", 0.388], ["2021-02-09", 0.374], ["2021-02-10", 0.385], ["2021-02-10", 0.386], ["2021-02-10", 0.388], ["2021-02-11", 0.391], ["2021-02-12", 0.391], ["2021-02-12", 0.391], ["2021-02-12", 0.387], ["2021-02-13", 0.385], ["2021-02-13", 0.381], ["2021-02-14", 0.38], ["2021-02-14", 0.376], ["2021-02-15", 0.373], ["2021-02-15", 0.373], ["2021-02-16", 0.361], ["2021-02-16", 0.36], ["2021-02-16", 0.357], ["2021-02-17", 0.355], ["2021-02-17", 0.355], ["2021-02-18", 0.352], ["2021-02-18", 0.351], ["2021-02-19", 0.347], ["2021-02-19", 0.341], ["2021-02-20", 0.337], ["2021-02-20", 0.332], ["2021-02-21", 0.331], ["2021-02-21", 0.33], ["2021-02-21", 0.33], ["2021-02-22", 0.328], ["2021-02-22", 0.32], ["2021-02-23", 0.32], ["2021-02-23", 0.314], ["2021-02-24", 0.315], ["2021-02-24", 0.316], ["2021-02-25", 0.284], ["2021-02-25", 0.259], ["2021-02-26", 0.257]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6104/
|
SARS-CoV-2 var. B.1.1.7, the coronavirus strain first identified in the United Kingdom, is likely already seeded in most areas of the world. At question-writing time the community thinks it is probably at least 50% more transmissible than previous strains. If so this is likely to have serious consequences. The New York Times describes the situation as "threatening to complicate what had seemed a hopeful, if halting, path to recovery" and quotes an expert describing "the overall picture" as "pretty grim."
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
Resolves positive if at any point, a total of three million or more people in the United States are reported to be under lockdown specifically because of B117. "Lockdown" means, in general, extraordinary measures more characteristic of last March and April than the rest of the pandemic, that are widely reported as "lockdown" ("locking down," "locked down," etc) in credible sources. Explicit official indications that the measures are extraordinarily severe, comparable to England's introduction of a new "Tier 4" of restrictions, are also strong evidence of "lockdown." The lockdown cannot be probably or inferentially because of B117, but must be explicitly stated by those mandating it to have been caused by B117, or by B117 and the South African 501.V2 variant collectively. In all close cases it is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports.
(The cutoff date is one year post-March 11th, 2020, the day the seriousness of the coronavirus epidemic in America hit home for many there.)
| true
|
2021-02-26
|
Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-06-01
|
2021-01-05
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-02-19", 0.625], ["2021-02-20", 0.72], ["2021-02-21", 0.633], ["2021-02-22", 0.64], ["2021-02-22", 0.669], ["2021-02-23", 0.698], ["2021-02-24", 0.71], ["2021-02-25", 0.713], ["2021-02-26", 0.719], ["2021-02-27", 0.721], ["2021-02-28", 0.72], ["2021-03-01", 0.72], ["2021-03-02", 0.719], ["2021-03-02", 0.719], ["2021-03-03", 0.719], ["2021-03-04", 0.717], ["2021-03-05", 0.717], ["2021-03-06", 0.765], ["2021-03-08", 0.805], ["2021-03-08", 0.861], ["2021-03-09", 0.877], ["2021-03-10", 0.88], ["2021-03-10", 0.878], ["2021-03-11", 0.881], ["2021-03-12", 0.889], ["2021-03-13", 0.889], ["2021-03-15", 0.889], ["2021-03-16", 0.889], ["2021-03-16", 0.889], ["2021-03-17", 0.888], ["2021-03-18", 0.888], ["2021-03-19", 0.871], ["2021-03-20", 0.869], ["2021-03-22", 0.868], ["2021-03-22", 0.868], ["2021-03-23", 0.867], ["2021-03-24", 0.866], ["2021-03-25", 0.866], ["2021-03-26", 0.865], ["2021-03-29", 0.866], ["2021-03-30", 0.864], ["2021-03-31", 0.864], ["2021-04-01", 0.864], ["2021-04-02", 0.864], ["2021-04-05", 0.863], ["2021-04-06", 0.862], ["2021-04-07", 0.859], ["2021-04-08", 0.859], ["2021-04-09", 0.859], ["2021-04-10", 0.858], ["2021-04-12", 0.858], ["2021-04-12", 0.858], ["2021-04-13", 0.858], ["2021-04-14", 0.858], ["2021-04-15", 0.859], ["2021-04-16", 0.859], ["2021-04-17", 0.858], ["2021-04-19", 0.858], ["2021-04-20", 0.859], ["2021-04-21", 0.857], ["2021-04-22", 0.856], ["2021-04-23", 0.857], ["2021-04-23", 0.857], ["2021-04-26", 0.857], ["2021-04-26", 0.857], ["2021-04-27", 0.856], ["2021-04-28", 0.856], ["2021-04-29", 0.857], ["2021-04-30", 0.859], ["2021-04-30", 0.859], ["2021-05-01", 0.859], ["2021-05-02", 0.859], ["2021-05-03", 0.859], ["2021-05-04", 0.859], ["2021-05-04", 0.86], ["2021-05-05", 0.862], ["2021-05-06", 0.862], ["2021-05-07", 0.861], ["2021-05-08", 0.862], ["2021-05-10", 0.861], ["2021-05-11", 0.861], ["2021-05-12", 0.865], ["2021-05-13", 0.869], ["2021-05-14", 0.866], ["2021-05-17", 0.866], ["2021-05-18", 0.866], ["2021-05-19", 0.866], ["2021-05-20", 0.864], ["2021-05-21", 0.862], ["2021-05-21", 0.863], ["2021-05-23", 0.863], ["2021-05-24", 0.863], ["2021-05-24", 0.864], ["2021-05-25", 0.864], ["2021-05-26", 0.865], ["2021-05-27", 0.865], ["2021-05-28", 0.872], ["2021-05-29", 0.873], ["2021-05-31", 0.874], ["2021-06-01", 0.878], ["2021-06-01", 0.879]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6145/
|
Background
The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts report that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels.
With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil in January 2020, that number dropped to below $10 in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020.
Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021.
|
Economics & Business
|
Resolution Criteria
Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ 10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices. Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.
This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise
| true
|
2021-07-01
|
Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-01-01
|
2021-01-05
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-09", 0.2], ["2021-01-09", 0.255], ["2021-01-09", 0.325], ["2021-01-09", 0.305], ["2021-01-10", 0.305], ["2021-01-10", 0.282], ["2021-01-11", 0.272], ["2021-01-11", 0.26], ["2021-01-11", 0.261], ["2021-01-11", 0.204], ["2021-01-12", 0.204], ["2021-01-12", 0.197], ["2021-01-12", 0.205], ["2021-01-12", 0.198], ["2021-01-13", 0.198], ["2021-01-29", 0.19], ["2021-01-29", 0.187], ["2021-02-05", 0.179], ["2021-02-06", 0.179], ["2021-02-10", 0.181], ["2021-02-20", 0.188], ["2021-02-22", 0.188], ["2021-02-22", 0.183], ["2021-02-28", 0.193], ["2021-02-28", 0.193], ["2021-03-11", 0.191], ["2021-03-12", 0.189], ["2021-03-25", 0.189], ["2021-03-26", 0.186], ["2021-04-03", 0.186], ["2021-04-03", 0.186], ["2021-04-08", 0.186], ["2021-04-12", 0.186], ["2021-04-15", 0.186], ["2021-04-27", 0.183], ["2021-05-25", 0.183], ["2021-06-28", 0.182], ["2021-07-08", 0.182], ["2021-07-10", 0.182], ["2021-07-15", 0.179], ["2021-07-20", 0.18], ["2021-07-20", 0.179], ["2021-07-21", 0.182], ["2021-07-22", 0.182], ["2021-08-09", 0.18], ["2021-08-09", 0.177], ["2021-08-12", 0.176], ["2021-08-12", 0.176], ["2021-08-19", 0.176], ["2021-08-19", 0.176], ["2021-08-19", 0.176], ["2021-08-20", 0.19], ["2021-08-20", 0.198], ["2021-08-21", 0.203], ["2021-08-22", 0.201], ["2021-08-22", 0.196], ["2021-08-22", 0.193], ["2021-08-24", 0.198], ["2021-08-24", 0.205], ["2021-08-24", 0.205], ["2021-08-25", 0.205], ["2021-08-25", 0.205], ["2021-08-25", 0.205], ["2021-08-27", 0.202], ["2021-08-27", 0.202], ["2021-08-27", 0.205], ["2021-08-30", 0.205], ["2021-08-30", 0.208], ["2021-08-31", 0.208], ["2021-09-01", 0.211], ["2021-09-01", 0.211], ["2021-09-08", 0.211], ["2021-09-08", 0.206], ["2021-09-13", 0.208], ["2021-09-13", 0.214], ["2021-09-13", 0.215], ["2021-09-15", 0.216], ["2021-09-15", 0.217], ["2021-09-15", 0.217], ["2021-09-16", 0.217], ["2021-09-16", 0.215], ["2021-09-16", 0.217], ["2021-09-16", 0.217], ["2021-09-17", 0.22], ["2021-09-18", 0.22], ["2021-09-19", 0.22], ["2021-09-21", 0.22], ["2021-09-24", 0.22], ["2021-09-24", 0.222], ["2021-09-25", 0.222], ["2021-09-26", 0.225], ["2021-09-27", 0.225], ["2021-09-28", 0.226], ["2021-09-29", 0.224], ["2021-09-29", 0.226], ["2021-09-29", 0.225], ["2021-09-30", 0.224], ["2021-09-30", 0.22], ["2021-09-30", 0.222], ["2021-09-30", 0.221], ["2021-10-01", 0.222]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6158/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
There is theoretical and observational data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with strong Sigma1R activation, which may also be relevant.
A recent small preregistered RCT of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published observational report. A larger trial is underway by the same investigators as the first one.
Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available here and here from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found here.
This question asks:
Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?
This question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid.
In the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive.
If an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question.
This resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care.
| true
|
2021-10-01
|
Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-20
|
2021-01-06
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-06", 0.1], ["2021-01-06", 0.163], ["2021-01-07", 0.195], ["2021-01-07", 0.229], ["2021-01-07", 0.255], ["2021-01-07", 0.259], ["2021-01-07", 0.262], ["2021-01-07", 0.266], ["2021-01-07", 0.262], ["2021-01-07", 0.258], ["2021-01-07", 0.251], ["2021-01-07", 0.244], ["2021-01-07", 0.246], ["2021-01-07", 0.253], ["2021-01-07", 0.235], ["2021-01-08", 0.2], ["2021-01-08", 0.184], ["2021-01-08", 0.174], ["2021-01-08", 0.169], ["2021-01-08", 0.164], ["2021-01-08", 0.162], ["2021-01-08", 0.157], ["2021-01-08", 0.157], ["2021-01-08", 0.154], ["2021-01-08", 0.152], ["2021-01-08", 0.143], ["2021-01-08", 0.138], ["2021-01-08", 0.138], ["2021-01-08", 0.137], ["2021-01-08", 0.132], ["2021-01-09", 0.127], ["2021-01-09", 0.129], ["2021-01-09", 0.129], ["2021-01-09", 0.129], ["2021-01-09", 0.127], ["2021-01-09", 0.127], ["2021-01-09", 0.127], ["2021-01-09", 0.123], ["2021-01-09", 0.122], ["2021-01-09", 0.119], ["2021-01-09", 0.12], ["2021-01-09", 0.12], ["2021-01-09", 0.118], ["2021-01-10", 0.116], ["2021-01-10", 0.116], ["2021-01-10", 0.118], ["2021-01-10", 0.119], ["2021-01-10", 0.118], ["2021-01-10", 0.116], ["2021-01-10", 0.115], ["2021-01-10", 0.115], ["2021-01-10", 0.114], ["2021-01-10", 0.115], ["2021-01-10", 0.115], ["2021-01-10", 0.116], ["2021-01-11", 0.116], ["2021-01-11", 0.116], ["2021-01-11", 0.115], ["2021-01-11", 0.114], ["2021-01-11", 0.115], ["2021-01-11", 0.115], ["2021-01-11", 0.114], ["2021-01-11", 0.114], ["2021-01-11", 0.113], ["2021-01-11", 0.113], ["2021-01-12", 0.113], ["2021-01-12", 0.113], ["2021-01-12", 0.112], ["2021-01-12", 0.112], ["2021-01-12", 0.111], ["2021-01-12", 0.111], ["2021-01-12", 0.111], ["2021-01-12", 0.111], ["2021-01-12", 0.111], ["2021-01-12", 0.112], ["2021-01-12", 0.111], ["2021-01-13", 0.111], ["2021-01-13", 0.11], ["2021-01-13", 0.11], ["2021-01-13", 0.109], ["2021-01-13", 0.108], ["2021-01-13", 0.108], ["2021-01-13", 0.107], ["2021-01-13", 0.107], ["2021-01-13", 0.106], ["2021-01-13", 0.106], ["2021-01-13", 0.104], ["2021-01-13", 0.104], ["2021-01-13", 0.104], ["2021-01-13", 0.097], ["2021-01-14", 0.095], ["2021-01-14", 0.093], ["2021-01-14", 0.091], ["2021-01-14", 0.09], ["2021-01-14", 0.088], ["2021-01-14", 0.088], ["2021-01-14", 0.088], ["2021-01-14", 0.086], ["2021-01-14", 0.082], ["2021-01-14", 0.08], ["2021-01-14", 0.08]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6172/
|
Section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States (PDF) states the following:
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session.
If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
On January 6 2021, Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol following a rally held by President Trump in which he refused to accept defeat in the 2020 presidential election.
The scale of the disorder has led some to propose that Trump be promptly removed from office before Biden is inaugurated.
|
Politics & Governance
|
For a positive resolution, before January 20, 2021 it must be announced by the White House or reported by the New York Times or Washington Post that President Trump has been relieved of his duties as president and the vice president has become Acting President under the terms of section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment.
A removal from office of any other sort, or a transfer of power under any other section of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, or any transfer of power not expressly made in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, does not count for this question
| true
|
2021-01-15
|
Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-20
|
2021-01-07
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-08", 0.77], ["2021-01-09", 0.231], ["2021-01-09", 0.214], ["2021-01-09", 0.196], ["2021-01-09", 0.186], ["2021-01-09", 0.181], ["2021-01-09", 0.192], ["2021-01-09", 0.212], ["2021-01-09", 0.212], ["2021-01-09", 0.238], ["2021-01-09", 0.234], ["2021-01-09", 0.234], ["2021-01-09", 0.23], ["2021-01-09", 0.212], ["2021-01-09", 0.208], ["2021-01-09", 0.207], ["2021-01-09", 0.198], ["2021-01-09", 0.189], ["2021-01-09", 0.186], ["2021-01-09", 0.175], ["2021-01-09", 0.169], ["2021-01-09", 0.166], ["2021-01-09", 0.16], ["2021-01-09", 0.158], ["2021-01-09", 0.146], ["2021-01-10", 0.157], ["2021-01-10", 0.157], ["2021-01-10", 0.157], ["2021-01-10", 0.156], ["2021-01-10", 0.157], ["2021-01-10", 0.154], ["2021-01-10", 0.158], ["2021-01-10", 0.16], ["2021-01-10", 0.165], ["2021-01-10", 0.161], ["2021-01-10", 0.164], ["2021-01-10", 0.162], ["2021-01-10", 0.16], ["2021-01-10", 0.16], ["2021-01-10", 0.159], ["2021-01-10", 0.159], ["2021-01-10", 0.158], ["2021-01-10", 0.163], ["2021-01-10", 0.161], ["2021-01-10", 0.161], ["2021-01-10", 0.16], ["2021-01-10", 0.156], ["2021-01-10", 0.156], ["2021-01-10", 0.156], ["2021-01-11", 0.154], ["2021-01-11", 0.156], ["2021-01-11", 0.159], ["2021-01-11", 0.16], ["2021-01-11", 0.159], ["2021-01-11", 0.159], ["2021-01-11", 0.157], ["2021-01-11", 0.157], ["2021-01-11", 0.157], ["2021-01-11", 0.156], ["2021-01-11", 0.156], ["2021-01-11", 0.154], ["2021-01-11", 0.154], ["2021-01-11", 0.152], ["2021-01-11", 0.152], ["2021-01-11", 0.152], ["2021-01-11", 0.152], ["2021-01-11", 0.152], ["2021-01-11", 0.151], ["2021-01-11", 0.151], ["2021-01-11", 0.156], ["2021-01-11", 0.154], ["2021-01-11", 0.152], ["2021-01-11", 0.152], ["2021-01-12", 0.153], ["2021-01-12", 0.151], ["2021-01-12", 0.15], ["2021-01-12", 0.149], ["2021-01-12", 0.148], ["2021-01-12", 0.148], ["2021-01-12", 0.149], ["2021-01-12", 0.147], ["2021-01-12", 0.147], ["2021-01-12", 0.148], ["2021-01-12", 0.148], ["2021-01-12", 0.148], ["2021-01-12", 0.149], ["2021-01-12", 0.148], ["2021-01-12", 0.148], ["2021-01-12", 0.149], ["2021-01-12", 0.149], ["2021-01-12", 0.149], ["2021-01-12", 0.149], ["2021-01-12", 0.148], ["2021-01-12", 0.149], ["2021-01-12", 0.147], ["2021-01-12", 0.15], ["2021-01-13", 0.151], ["2021-01-13", 0.157], ["2021-01-13", 0.157], ["2021-01-13", 0.16], ["2021-01-13", 0.158]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6177/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
As of 2021/01/06 there have been calls to relieve Donald Trump from his duties as President of the United States. That might happen because of his death, resignation, impeachment or the 25th Amendment process.
Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?
If after 2021/01/06 and before the scheduled inauguation on 2021/01/20, the New York Times or Washington Post report that Donald Trump is no longer President of the United States or that anyone else has become President or Acting President before the inauguration of Joe Biden this question resolves as Yes. If no such reports exist, this question is resolved as no.
| true
|
2021-01-13
|
[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2023-01-01
|
2021-01-08
|
["https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#5bc8b2993d78", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/economy/worlds-richest-person-musk-adani-bezos/index.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/"]
|
binary
|
[["2021-03-30", 0.05], ["2021-03-30", 0.05], ["2021-03-31", 0.19], ["2021-03-31", 0.137], ["2021-03-31", 0.178], ["2021-03-31", 0.172], ["2021-03-31", 0.172], ["2021-03-31", 0.152], ["2021-03-31", 0.185], ["2021-03-31", 0.231], ["2021-03-31", 0.231], ["2021-03-31", 0.23], ["2021-03-31", 0.208], ["2021-03-31", 0.202], ["2021-03-31", 0.198], ["2021-03-31", 0.198], ["2021-03-31", 0.195], ["2021-03-31", 0.195], ["2021-04-01", 0.181], ["2021-04-01", 0.179], ["2021-04-01", 0.184], ["2021-04-01", 0.184], ["2021-04-01", 0.179], ["2021-04-01", 0.172], ["2021-04-01", 0.166], ["2021-04-01", 0.162], ["2021-04-01", 0.162], ["2021-04-01", 0.176], ["2021-04-02", 0.176], ["2021-04-02", 0.174], ["2021-04-02", 0.175], ["2021-04-02", 0.176], ["2021-04-02", 0.172], ["2021-04-02", 0.177], ["2021-04-02", 0.174], ["2021-04-02", 0.171], ["2021-04-02", 0.17], ["2021-04-03", 0.17], ["2021-04-03", 0.169], ["2021-04-03", 0.169], ["2021-04-03", 0.167], ["2021-04-03", 0.167], ["2021-04-03", 0.166], ["2021-04-03", 0.163], ["2021-04-03", 0.169], ["2021-04-04", 0.169], ["2021-04-04", 0.166], ["2021-04-04", 0.166], ["2021-04-04", 0.164], ["2021-04-04", 0.164], ["2021-04-04", 0.164], ["2021-04-04", 0.161], ["2021-04-05", 0.163], ["2021-04-06", 0.163], ["2021-04-06", 0.156], ["2021-04-07", 0.156], ["2021-04-07", 0.155], ["2021-04-08", 0.155], ["2021-04-08", 0.153], ["2021-04-10", 0.151], ["2021-04-11", 0.152], ["2021-04-11", 0.152], ["2021-04-13", 0.149], ["2021-04-19", 0.147], ["2021-04-24", 0.15], ["2021-04-25", 0.15], ["2021-04-28", 0.148], ["2021-04-29", 0.148], ["2021-05-02", 0.146], ["2021-05-03", 0.141], ["2021-05-03", 0.141], ["2021-05-06", 0.141], ["2021-05-08", 0.141], ["2021-05-10", 0.139], ["2021-05-12", 0.136], ["2021-05-12", 0.134], ["2021-05-14", 0.134], ["2021-05-20", 0.131], ["2021-05-20", 0.131], ["2021-05-20", 0.131], ["2021-05-21", 0.131], ["2021-05-21", 0.13], ["2021-05-23", 0.13], ["2021-05-28", 0.129], ["2021-05-28", 0.129], ["2021-05-29", 0.128], ["2021-05-29", 0.126], ["2021-05-29", 0.125], ["2021-05-29", 0.123], ["2021-05-29", 0.124], ["2021-05-30", 0.124], ["2021-05-30", 0.12], ["2021-05-30", 0.12], ["2021-05-30", 0.118], ["2021-05-30", 0.117], ["2021-05-30", 0.117], ["2021-05-30", 0.117], ["2021-05-30", 0.117], ["2021-05-30", 0.115], ["2021-05-31", 0.116], ["2021-05-31", 0.117]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6190/
|
Elon Musk is the richest person in the world.
|
Economics & Business
|
This question will resolve as Yes if Elon Musk's net worth is double or more than the second richest person in the world at any time between March 1, 2021 to January 1, 2022, according to either of Bloomberg's Billionaires Index or Forbes' Index. If these sources are not available, another credible source may be used at Metaculus' discretion
| true
|
2021-05-31
|
Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-06-02
|
2021-01-09
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-10", 0.37], ["2021-01-11", 0.376], ["2021-01-13", 0.301], ["2021-01-14", 0.294], ["2021-01-15", 0.294], ["2021-01-16", 0.289], ["2021-01-17", 0.288], ["2021-01-19", 0.282], ["2021-01-20", 0.28], ["2021-01-21", 0.284], ["2021-01-22", 0.279], ["2021-01-23", 0.275], ["2021-01-24", 0.263], ["2021-01-26", 0.255], ["2021-01-27", 0.225], ["2021-01-29", 0.212], ["2021-01-30", 0.21], ["2021-01-31", 0.21], ["2021-02-02", 0.203], ["2021-02-03", 0.19], ["2021-02-05", 0.192], ["2021-02-06", 0.187], ["2021-02-07", 0.186], ["2021-02-08", 0.183], ["2021-02-09", 0.181], ["2021-02-11", 0.174], ["2021-02-12", 0.174], ["2021-02-17", 0.173], ["2021-02-18", 0.173], ["2021-02-19", 0.175], ["2021-02-20", 0.172], ["2021-02-21", 0.172], ["2021-02-22", 0.17], ["2021-02-23", 0.169], ["2021-02-25", 0.168], ["2021-02-26", 0.167], ["2021-02-27", 0.166], ["2021-02-28", 0.165], ["2021-03-01", 0.165], ["2021-03-02", 0.164], ["2021-03-03", 0.163], ["2021-03-05", 0.163], ["2021-03-07", 0.161], ["2021-03-09", 0.161], ["2021-03-11", 0.161], ["2021-03-12", 0.16], ["2021-03-13", 0.16], ["2021-03-15", 0.158], ["2021-03-16", 0.156], ["2021-03-18", 0.155], ["2021-03-19", 0.155], ["2021-03-20", 0.155], ["2021-03-22", 0.154], ["2021-03-23", 0.154], ["2021-03-25", 0.152], ["2021-03-26", 0.152], ["2021-03-27", 0.152], ["2021-03-28", 0.151], ["2021-03-30", 0.15], ["2021-04-01", 0.149], ["2021-04-03", 0.149], ["2021-04-04", 0.148], ["2021-04-05", 0.147], ["2021-04-06", 0.147], ["2021-04-08", 0.145], ["2021-04-10", 0.144], ["2021-04-11", 0.141], ["2021-04-14", 0.14], ["2021-04-15", 0.133], ["2021-04-17", 0.132], ["2021-04-19", 0.132], ["2021-04-19", 0.13], ["2021-04-20", 0.13], ["2021-04-21", 0.129], ["2021-04-22", 0.129], ["2021-04-24", 0.127], ["2021-04-26", 0.127], ["2021-04-28", 0.125], ["2021-04-29", 0.125], ["2021-04-30", 0.124], ["2021-05-01", 0.12], ["2021-05-02", 0.12], ["2021-05-03", 0.117], ["2021-05-06", 0.116], ["2021-05-11", 0.116], ["2021-05-11", 0.113], ["2021-05-14", 0.112], ["2021-05-15", 0.112], ["2021-05-17", 0.11], ["2021-05-18", 0.109], ["2021-05-19", 0.109], ["2021-05-20", 0.104], ["2021-05-21", 0.104], ["2021-05-23", 0.103], ["2021-05-24", 0.103], ["2021-05-25", 0.107], ["2021-05-27", 0.105], ["2021-05-28", 0.103], ["2021-05-28", 0.102], ["2021-05-30", 0.102], ["2021-05-31", 0.075]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6202/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A previous question on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?
Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?
This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's COVID-19 dashboard. This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.
If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to ourworldindata.
Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).
This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.
| true
|
2021-05-31
|
Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-01-21
|
2021-01-09
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-12", 0.09], ["2021-01-12", 0.073], ["2021-01-13", 0.18], ["2021-01-13", 0.224], ["2021-01-13", 0.204], ["2021-01-13", 0.203], ["2021-01-13", 0.196], ["2021-01-13", 0.169], ["2021-01-13", 0.176], ["2021-01-13", 0.187], ["2021-01-13", 0.218], ["2021-01-13", 0.218], ["2021-01-13", 0.218], ["2021-01-13", 0.2], ["2021-01-13", 0.196], ["2021-01-13", 0.192], ["2021-01-13", 0.192], ["2021-01-13", 0.191], ["2021-01-13", 0.187], ["2021-01-13", 0.185], ["2021-01-13", 0.18], ["2021-01-13", 0.18], ["2021-01-13", 0.196], ["2021-01-13", 0.201], ["2021-01-13", 0.196], ["2021-01-13", 0.2], ["2021-01-13", 0.204], ["2021-01-13", 0.209], ["2021-01-13", 0.208], ["2021-01-13", 0.208], ["2021-01-13", 0.209], ["2021-01-14", 0.203], ["2021-01-14", 0.203], ["2021-01-14", 0.203], ["2021-01-14", 0.2], ["2021-01-14", 0.199], ["2021-01-14", 0.199], ["2021-01-14", 0.199], ["2021-01-14", 0.199], ["2021-01-14", 0.198], ["2021-01-14", 0.198], ["2021-01-14", 0.198], ["2021-01-14", 0.198], ["2021-01-14", 0.201], ["2021-01-14", 0.199], ["2021-01-15", 0.199], ["2021-01-15", 0.197], ["2021-01-15", 0.194], ["2021-01-15", 0.194], ["2021-01-15", 0.194], ["2021-01-15", 0.193], ["2021-01-15", 0.192], ["2021-01-15", 0.192], ["2021-01-15", 0.189], ["2021-01-15", 0.185], ["2021-01-15", 0.185], ["2021-01-15", 0.183], ["2021-01-15", 0.18], ["2021-01-15", 0.18], ["2021-01-15", 0.178], ["2021-01-15", 0.176], ["2021-01-15", 0.176], ["2021-01-16", 0.172], ["2021-01-16", 0.171], ["2021-01-16", 0.169], ["2021-01-16", 0.167], ["2021-01-16", 0.169], ["2021-01-16", 0.169], ["2021-01-16", 0.165], ["2021-01-16", 0.165], ["2021-01-16", 0.165], ["2021-01-16", 0.162], ["2021-01-16", 0.161], ["2021-01-16", 0.16], ["2021-01-16", 0.16], ["2021-01-17", 0.16], ["2021-01-17", 0.158], ["2021-01-17", 0.16], ["2021-01-17", 0.16], ["2021-01-17", 0.157], ["2021-01-17", 0.156], ["2021-01-17", 0.156], ["2021-01-17", 0.154], ["2021-01-17", 0.154], ["2021-01-17", 0.154], ["2021-01-17", 0.153], ["2021-01-17", 0.151], ["2021-01-17", 0.15], ["2021-01-17", 0.148], ["2021-01-17", 0.148], ["2021-01-17", 0.144], ["2021-01-17", 0.142], ["2021-01-17", 0.142], ["2021-01-17", 0.142], ["2021-01-17", 0.142], ["2021-01-17", 0.141], ["2021-01-17", 0.139], ["2021-01-17", 0.137], ["2021-01-17", 0.137], ["2021-01-18", 0.132], ["2021-01-18", 0.131]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6210/
|
In light of recent events, calls have been made to again impeach President Trump, or even pursue criminal charges. Previously, media coverage has suggested that Trump may be intending to flee the United States at the end of his Presidency, with one piece in The Guardian stating:
The murk surrounding Donald Trump’s likely whereabouts on his last day as president has thickened considerably with news that an official plane he has used in the past is due to fly to Scotland the day before Joe Biden’s inauguration.
In this particular case, however, the Washington Post later reported on statements made by the White House denying this suggestion:
“Anonymous sources who claim to know what the President is or is not considering have no idea. When President Trump has an announcement about his plans for Jan. 20 he will let you know,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a written statement.
The White House followed up with a second statement, attributed to press secretary Kayleigh McEnany, that the reports of a Trump trip to Turnberry were “not accurate. President Trump has no plans to travel to Scotland.”
Where Trump and his family members will go and where they will live after his term has not been announced.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if at least two credible media outlets report that Donald Trump exited the United States on (or by) 2021-01-20 23:59:59 EST and was not present in the United States on 2021-01-21 09:00:00 EST. The media reports must be published within 48 hours (ie, by 2021-01-23 EST)
Fine Print
Positive resolution of this question does not require that Donald Trump be reported as physically in another country --- he may be in the air for the duration of 2021-01-20, for example --- but does require that media report he is absent from United States soil. This question will resolve ambiguously if two credible media outlets report that Donald Trump's location is unknown.
| true
|
2021-01-18
|
Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-02-21
|
2021-01-10
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-14", 0.4], ["2021-01-14", 0.4], ["2021-01-14", 0.383], ["2021-01-14", 0.325], ["2021-01-14", 0.31], ["2021-01-14", 0.287], ["2021-01-14", 0.287], ["2021-01-14", 0.315], ["2021-01-14", 0.314], ["2021-01-15", 0.318], ["2021-01-15", 0.318], ["2021-01-15", 0.316], ["2021-01-15", 0.323], ["2021-01-15", 0.294], ["2021-01-15", 0.287], ["2021-01-15", 0.284], ["2021-01-15", 0.284], ["2021-01-15", 0.288], ["2021-01-15", 0.279], ["2021-01-15", 0.265], ["2021-01-15", 0.259], ["2021-01-15", 0.254], ["2021-01-15", 0.249], ["2021-01-15", 0.249], ["2021-01-15", 0.245], ["2021-01-15", 0.245], ["2021-01-16", 0.257], ["2021-01-16", 0.248], ["2021-01-16", 0.251], ["2021-01-16", 0.258], ["2021-01-16", 0.258], ["2021-01-16", 0.256], ["2021-01-17", 0.256], ["2021-01-17", 0.256], ["2021-01-17", 0.259], ["2021-01-17", 0.259], ["2021-01-17", 0.266], ["2021-01-17", 0.264], ["2021-01-17", 0.264], ["2021-01-17", 0.26], ["2021-01-17", 0.26], ["2021-01-18", 0.264], ["2021-01-18", 0.263], ["2021-01-18", 0.266], ["2021-01-19", 0.265], ["2021-01-19", 0.265], ["2021-01-19", 0.268], ["2021-01-19", 0.271], ["2021-01-19", 0.271], ["2021-01-19", 0.269], ["2021-01-19", 0.272], ["2021-01-19", 0.274], ["2021-01-20", 0.274], ["2021-01-20", 0.276], ["2021-01-20", 0.279], ["2021-01-20", 0.277], ["2021-01-20", 0.277], ["2021-01-20", 0.276], ["2021-01-20", 0.283], ["2021-01-20", 0.282], ["2021-01-20", 0.281], ["2021-01-20", 0.281], ["2021-01-20", 0.284], ["2021-01-20", 0.288], ["2021-01-20", 0.291], ["2021-01-20", 0.291], ["2021-01-20", 0.29], ["2021-01-20", 0.299], ["2021-01-21", 0.294], ["2021-01-21", 0.295], ["2021-01-21", 0.3], ["2021-01-21", 0.299], ["2021-01-21", 0.295], ["2021-01-21", 0.294], ["2021-01-21", 0.298], ["2021-01-21", 0.292], ["2021-01-21", 0.291], ["2021-01-21", 0.291], ["2021-01-21", 0.289], ["2021-01-21", 0.284], ["2021-01-21", 0.282], ["2021-01-21", 0.282], ["2021-01-21", 0.282], ["2021-01-21", 0.283], ["2021-01-21", 0.281], ["2021-01-21", 0.281], ["2021-01-21", 0.278], ["2021-01-21", 0.277], ["2021-01-21", 0.275], ["2021-01-21", 0.27], ["2021-01-21", 0.271], ["2021-01-21", 0.271], ["2021-01-21", 0.271], ["2021-01-21", 0.275], ["2021-01-21", 0.273], ["2021-01-21", 0.268], ["2021-01-21", 0.267], ["2021-01-21", 0.264], ["2021-01-21", 0.263], ["2021-01-21", 0.26], ["2021-01-21", 0.259]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6222/
|
Since the beginning of his presidency (and even before), it has been speculated by some that Donald Trump may have engaged in illegal behaviors in his personal and public life. These alleged crimes include, among other things, inciting the Capitol insurrection of January 2021, engaging in a corrupt quid pro quo with Ukraine, and committing tax fraud.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question will resolve positively if, by February 20, 2021 at 12:00 PM, at least two credible sources report that Trump has been charged with federal crime(s).
This question will resolve negatively if the above does not occur, but Donald Trump ceases to be president on January 20, 2021 at 12:00 PM.
This question will resolve ambiguously if Donald Trump’s presidency does not end at 12:00 PM on January 20, 2021 as expected, thus rendering the resolution date of February 20 inaccurate
| true
|
2021-01-21
|
Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-03-01
|
2021-01-12
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-14", 0.35], ["2021-01-14", 0.352], ["2021-01-14", 0.332], ["2021-01-14", 0.365], ["2021-01-14", 0.422], ["2021-01-14", 0.363], ["2021-01-14", 0.369], ["2021-01-14", 0.367], ["2021-01-14", 0.335], ["2021-01-14", 0.319], ["2021-01-14", 0.307], ["2021-01-14", 0.306], ["2021-01-14", 0.315], ["2021-01-14", 0.308], ["2021-01-14", 0.301], ["2021-01-14", 0.295], ["2021-01-14", 0.284], ["2021-01-14", 0.283], ["2021-01-14", 0.271], ["2021-01-14", 0.268], ["2021-01-14", 0.263], ["2021-01-15", 0.266], ["2021-01-15", 0.26], ["2021-01-15", 0.258], ["2021-01-15", 0.255], ["2021-01-15", 0.255], ["2021-01-15", 0.255], ["2021-01-15", 0.261], ["2021-01-15", 0.26], ["2021-01-15", 0.261], ["2021-01-15", 0.262], ["2021-01-15", 0.258], ["2021-01-15", 0.256], ["2021-01-15", 0.249], ["2021-01-15", 0.249], ["2021-01-15", 0.243], ["2021-01-15", 0.24], ["2021-01-15", 0.237], ["2021-01-15", 0.237], ["2021-01-15", 0.235], ["2021-01-16", 0.235], ["2021-01-16", 0.235], ["2021-01-16", 0.233], ["2021-01-16", 0.232], ["2021-01-16", 0.228], ["2021-01-16", 0.227], ["2021-01-16", 0.228], ["2021-01-16", 0.228], ["2021-01-16", 0.229], ["2021-01-16", 0.231], ["2021-01-16", 0.239], ["2021-01-16", 0.239], ["2021-01-16", 0.235], ["2021-01-16", 0.235], ["2021-01-16", 0.235], ["2021-01-16", 0.24], ["2021-01-16", 0.245], ["2021-01-16", 0.245], ["2021-01-16", 0.25], ["2021-01-16", 0.249], ["2021-01-16", 0.249], ["2021-01-17", 0.248], ["2021-01-17", 0.248], ["2021-01-17", 0.245], ["2021-01-17", 0.246], ["2021-01-17", 0.247], ["2021-01-17", 0.248], ["2021-01-17", 0.242], ["2021-01-17", 0.241], ["2021-01-17", 0.244], ["2021-01-17", 0.245], ["2021-01-17", 0.243], ["2021-01-17", 0.247], ["2021-01-17", 0.247], ["2021-01-17", 0.243], ["2021-01-17", 0.244], ["2021-01-17", 0.246], ["2021-01-17", 0.244], ["2021-01-17", 0.244], ["2021-01-17", 0.241], ["2021-01-18", 0.24], ["2021-01-18", 0.239], ["2021-01-18", 0.238], ["2021-01-18", 0.237], ["2021-01-18", 0.237], ["2021-01-18", 0.237], ["2021-01-18", 0.236], ["2021-01-18", 0.237], ["2021-01-18", 0.237], ["2021-01-18", 0.237], ["2021-01-18", 0.243], ["2021-01-18", 0.243], ["2021-01-18", 0.245], ["2021-01-18", 0.245], ["2021-01-18", 0.244], ["2021-01-18", 0.24], ["2021-01-18", 0.235], ["2021-01-18", 0.235], ["2021-01-18", 0.229], ["2021-01-18", 0.225], ["2021-01-18", 0.219]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6244/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Security & Defense
|
Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.
More recently, in 2020, mass civil unrest occurred in the United States in response to the killing of George Floyd. More than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be up to $2bn.
In January 2021, the United States Capitol Building was stormed by partisans as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made.
Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?
For the purposes of this question, 'major civil unrest or rioting' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:
At least 50 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
These counts will be cumulative from question open date to resolution date. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.
For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 50. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.
Arrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.
| true
|
2021-01-19
|
Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-01-01
|
2021-01-13
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-18", 0.15], ["2021-01-18", 0.175], ["2021-01-19", 0.477], ["2021-01-19", 0.387], ["2021-01-20", 0.389], ["2021-01-21", 0.393], ["2021-01-21", 0.389], ["2021-01-22", 0.389], ["2021-01-23", 0.379], ["2021-01-24", 0.38], ["2021-01-24", 0.382], ["2021-01-26", 0.385], ["2021-01-27", 0.383], ["2021-01-28", 0.378], ["2021-01-29", 0.376], ["2021-01-30", 0.376], ["2021-01-30", 0.364], ["2021-01-31", 0.364], ["2021-01-31", 0.365], ["2021-02-01", 0.365], ["2021-02-02", 0.365], ["2021-02-03", 0.371], ["2021-02-09", 0.368], ["2021-02-09", 0.366], ["2021-02-10", 0.366], ["2021-02-11", 0.367], ["2021-02-12", 0.371], ["2021-02-13", 0.371], ["2021-02-13", 0.371], ["2021-02-20", 0.375], ["2021-02-21", 0.375], ["2021-02-23", 0.375], ["2021-02-23", 0.375], ["2021-02-25", 0.375], ["2021-02-26", 0.377], ["2021-02-27", 0.377], ["2021-02-28", 0.377], ["2021-03-02", 0.377], ["2021-03-04", 0.376], ["2021-03-04", 0.374], ["2021-03-06", 0.375], ["2021-03-06", 0.372], ["2021-03-09", 0.371], ["2021-03-27", 0.372], ["2021-03-28", 0.372], ["2021-03-28", 0.372], ["2021-04-04", 0.37], ["2021-04-05", 0.369], ["2021-04-06", 0.369], ["2021-04-07", 0.369], ["2021-04-07", 0.371], ["2021-04-08", 0.371], ["2021-04-09", 0.372], ["2021-04-10", 0.372], ["2021-04-10", 0.371], ["2021-04-12", 0.371], ["2021-04-14", 0.371], ["2021-04-20", 0.371], ["2021-04-21", 0.455], ["2021-04-21", 0.467], ["2021-04-22", 0.49], ["2021-04-22", 0.493], ["2021-04-23", 0.509], ["2021-04-24", 0.509], ["2021-04-24", 0.511], ["2021-04-25", 0.514], ["2021-04-26", 0.516], ["2021-04-27", 0.516], ["2021-04-27", 0.518], ["2021-04-27", 0.52], ["2021-04-28", 0.52], ["2021-04-29", 0.526], ["2021-04-30", 0.527], ["2021-04-30", 0.529], ["2021-05-01", 0.529], ["2021-05-01", 0.533], ["2021-05-06", 0.536], ["2021-05-08", 0.536], ["2021-05-10", 0.536], ["2021-05-13", 0.539], ["2021-05-13", 0.539], ["2021-05-14", 0.538], ["2021-05-15", 0.539], ["2021-05-19", 0.538], ["2021-05-19", 0.537], ["2021-05-20", 0.537], ["2021-05-21", 0.539], ["2021-05-21", 0.539], ["2021-05-22", 0.538], ["2021-05-23", 0.539], ["2021-05-24", 0.54], ["2021-05-25", 0.54], ["2021-05-26", 0.537], ["2021-05-26", 0.54], ["2021-05-27", 0.54], ["2021-05-28", 0.54], ["2021-05-28", 0.54], ["2021-05-29", 0.541], ["2021-05-30", 0.543], ["2021-05-31", 0.544], ["2021-06-01", 0.546]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6291/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in this article, where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.
As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.
A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.
Here are some articles describing these issues:
Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target
The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”
Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?
Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?
This question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.
This question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.
For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:
Donald Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Eric Trump
Ivanka Trump
Tiffany Trump
Melania Trump
Barron Trump
Jared Kushner
| true
|
2021-06-01
|
Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-01-20
|
2021-01-13
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-17", 0.67], ["2021-01-17", 0.67], ["2021-01-17", 0.75], ["2021-01-17", 0.75], ["2021-01-17", 0.76], ["2021-01-17", 0.767], ["2021-01-17", 0.786], ["2021-01-17", 0.786], ["2021-01-17", 0.811], ["2021-01-17", 0.829], ["2021-01-17", 0.844], ["2021-01-17", 0.852], ["2021-01-17", 0.863], ["2021-01-17", 0.881], ["2021-01-17", 0.902], ["2021-01-17", 0.902], ["2021-01-17", 0.913], ["2021-01-17", 0.913], ["2021-01-17", 0.913], ["2021-01-17", 0.915], ["2021-01-17", 0.915], ["2021-01-17", 0.917], ["2021-01-17", 0.917], ["2021-01-17", 0.922], ["2021-01-17", 0.922], ["2021-01-17", 0.923], ["2021-01-18", 0.927], ["2021-01-18", 0.927], ["2021-01-18", 0.929], ["2021-01-18", 0.929], ["2021-01-18", 0.93], ["2021-01-18", 0.93], ["2021-01-18", 0.933], ["2021-01-18", 0.934], ["2021-01-18", 0.934], ["2021-01-18", 0.935], ["2021-01-18", 0.932], ["2021-01-18", 0.932], ["2021-01-18", 0.933], ["2021-01-18", 0.934], ["2021-01-18", 0.935], ["2021-01-18", 0.935], ["2021-01-18", 0.934], ["2021-01-18", 0.934], ["2021-01-18", 0.935], ["2021-01-18", 0.936], ["2021-01-18", 0.936], ["2021-01-18", 0.936], ["2021-01-18", 0.937], ["2021-01-18", 0.937], ["2021-01-18", 0.938], ["2021-01-18", 0.94], ["2021-01-18", 0.94], ["2021-01-18", 0.937], ["2021-01-18", 0.937], ["2021-01-18", 0.935], ["2021-01-18", 0.928], ["2021-01-18", 0.928], ["2021-01-18", 0.928], ["2021-01-18", 0.928], ["2021-01-18", 0.919], ["2021-01-18", 0.924], ["2021-01-19", 0.924], ["2021-01-19", 0.925], ["2021-01-19", 0.925], ["2021-01-19", 0.925], ["2021-01-19", 0.925], ["2021-01-19", 0.925], ["2021-01-19", 0.925], ["2021-01-19", 0.926], ["2021-01-19", 0.926], ["2021-01-19", 0.926], ["2021-01-19", 0.928], ["2021-01-19", 0.929], ["2021-01-19", 0.929], ["2021-01-19", 0.931], ["2021-01-19", 0.931], ["2021-01-19", 0.932], ["2021-01-19", 0.935], ["2021-01-19", 0.935], ["2021-01-19", 0.935], ["2021-01-19", 0.935], ["2021-01-19", 0.935], ["2021-01-19", 0.936], ["2021-01-19", 0.936], ["2021-01-19", 0.936], ["2021-01-19", 0.937], ["2021-01-19", 0.937], ["2021-01-19", 0.938], ["2021-01-19", 0.939], ["2021-01-19", 0.939], ["2021-01-19", 0.937], ["2021-01-19", 0.938], ["2021-01-19", 0.938], ["2021-01-19", 0.937], ["2021-01-19", 0.937], ["2021-01-19", 0.937], ["2021-01-20", 0.938], ["2021-01-20", 0.939], ["2021-01-20", 0.938], ["2021-01-20", 0.938]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6293/
|
President-elect Joe Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th, 2021. The inauguration is mostly virtual, but is currently planned to take place in person outside the US Capitol.
Biden has said he's not afraid:
President-elect Joe Biden said he was not afraid to take the oath of office outside on 20 January following the violent riots at the US Capitol.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This resolves positively if Biden is inaugurated in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021. This resolves negatively if Biden is inaugurated in any other location or if the inauguration is delayed past January 20th for any reason.
"Outside the US Capitol" means outdoors and closer to the US Capitol building than any other building
| true
|
2021-01-20
|
Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-12-23
|
2021-01-13
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-16", 0.7], ["2021-01-17", 0.481], ["2021-01-17", 0.546], ["2021-01-18", 0.556], ["2021-01-19", 0.574], ["2021-01-19", 0.575], ["2021-01-20", 0.585], ["2021-01-21", 0.59], ["2021-01-22", 0.588], ["2021-01-22", 0.592], ["2021-01-23", 0.585], ["2021-01-24", 0.579], ["2021-01-24", 0.582], ["2021-01-25", 0.571], ["2021-01-27", 0.569], ["2021-01-28", 0.571], ["2021-01-29", 0.577], ["2021-01-30", 0.578], ["2021-01-31", 0.579], ["2021-02-01", 0.583], ["2021-02-02", 0.582], ["2021-02-10", 0.582], ["2021-02-12", 0.583], ["2021-02-22", 0.583], ["2021-02-24", 0.583], ["2021-02-26", 0.581], ["2021-02-27", 0.582], ["2021-03-10", 0.582], ["2021-03-10", 0.578], ["2021-03-13", 0.582], ["2021-03-13", 0.583], ["2021-03-16", 0.582], ["2021-03-25", 0.582], ["2021-03-26", 0.577], ["2021-03-30", 0.577], ["2021-04-03", 0.573], ["2021-04-04", 0.574], ["2021-04-08", 0.574], ["2021-04-10", 0.57], ["2021-04-11", 0.569], ["2021-04-12", 0.569], ["2021-04-13", 0.568], ["2021-04-14", 0.568], ["2021-04-17", 0.569], ["2021-04-22", 0.569], ["2021-04-22", 0.578], ["2021-04-24", 0.578], ["2021-05-07", 0.581], ["2021-05-08", 0.582], ["2021-05-11", 0.582], ["2021-05-12", 0.576], ["2021-05-25", 0.576], ["2021-06-06", 0.576], ["2021-06-08", 0.574], ["2021-06-08", 0.571], ["2021-06-23", 0.571], ["2021-06-25", 0.567], ["2021-07-08", 0.567], ["2021-07-09", 0.567], ["2021-07-15", 0.565], ["2021-07-16", 0.563], ["2021-07-20", 0.564], ["2021-07-20", 0.562], ["2021-07-25", 0.562], ["2021-08-01", 0.557], ["2021-08-08", 0.557], ["2021-08-10", 0.55], ["2021-08-10", 0.549], ["2021-08-12", 0.549], ["2021-08-12", 0.549], ["2021-08-13", 0.549], ["2021-08-13", 0.548], ["2021-08-31", 0.548], ["2021-09-10", 0.545], ["2021-09-10", 0.547], ["2021-09-15", 0.548], ["2021-09-16", 0.548], ["2021-09-17", 0.548], ["2021-09-18", 0.55], ["2021-09-21", 0.55], ["2021-09-23", 0.551], ["2021-09-27", 0.551], ["2021-10-03", 0.552], ["2021-10-04", 0.552], ["2021-10-05", 0.555], ["2021-10-06", 0.555], ["2021-10-08", 0.555], ["2021-10-10", 0.555], ["2021-10-11", 0.555], ["2021-10-13", 0.555], ["2021-10-14", 0.556], ["2021-10-18", 0.555], ["2021-10-18", 0.555], ["2021-10-19", 0.555], ["2021-10-19", 0.553], ["2021-10-26", 0.553], ["2021-10-27", 0.554], ["2021-10-28", 0.557], ["2021-10-29", 0.542], ["2021-10-30", 0.534], ["2021-10-31", 0.531]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6295/
|
As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in this article.
The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.
US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests
U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years
U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus
U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession
|
Economics & Business
|
This question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described here is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:
Income Measure: "Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line"
Sample: "All Individuals"
The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.
If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.
Fine Print
November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for "late 2021".
| true
|
2021-10-31
|
Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-10-08
|
2021-01-13
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-16", 0.95], ["2021-01-18", 0.646], ["2021-01-20", 0.66], ["2021-01-21", 0.66], ["2021-01-22", 0.66], ["2021-01-24", 0.669], ["2021-01-25", 0.679], ["2021-01-27", 0.68], ["2021-01-29", 0.687], ["2021-01-30", 0.679], ["2021-02-01", 0.673], ["2021-02-03", 0.675], ["2021-02-04", 0.659], ["2021-02-06", 0.623], ["2021-02-07", 0.609], ["2021-02-10", 0.525], ["2021-02-12", 0.513], ["2021-02-14", 0.519], ["2021-02-15", 0.521], ["2021-02-17", 0.521], ["2021-02-19", 0.51], ["2021-02-20", 0.509], ["2021-02-21", 0.506], ["2021-02-25", 0.507], ["2021-02-28", 0.507], ["2021-03-02", 0.506], ["2021-03-04", 0.506], ["2021-03-10", 0.509], ["2021-03-15", 0.507], ["2021-03-18", 0.481], ["2021-03-19", 0.481], ["2021-03-21", 0.481], ["2021-03-23", 0.471], ["2021-03-24", 0.471], ["2021-03-26", 0.469], ["2021-03-28", 0.468], ["2021-04-02", 0.467], ["2021-04-03", 0.462], ["2021-04-05", 0.462], ["2021-04-07", 0.462], ["2021-04-08", 0.462], ["2021-04-10", 0.462], ["2021-04-12", 0.463], ["2021-04-14", 0.46], ["2021-04-21", 0.459], ["2021-04-29", 0.458], ["2021-04-29", 0.457], ["2021-05-07", 0.457], ["2021-05-09", 0.46], ["2021-05-12", 0.46], ["2021-05-22", 0.463], ["2021-05-23", 0.463], ["2021-05-26", 0.463], ["2021-05-27", 0.462], ["2021-05-31", 0.462], ["2021-06-03", 0.461], ["2021-06-05", 0.461], ["2021-06-10", 0.461], ["2021-06-12", 0.458], ["2021-06-26", 0.458], ["2021-06-28", 0.46], ["2021-06-30", 0.46], ["2021-07-02", 0.46], ["2021-07-04", 0.473], ["2021-07-06", 0.476], ["2021-07-07", 0.478], ["2021-07-09", 0.478], ["2021-07-10", 0.479], ["2021-07-12", 0.481], ["2021-07-15", 0.482], ["2021-07-15", 0.482], ["2021-07-20", 0.482], ["2021-07-22", 0.484], ["2021-07-24", 0.484], ["2021-07-26", 0.489], ["2021-07-28", 0.49], ["2021-07-29", 0.491], ["2021-07-31", 0.494], ["2021-08-02", 0.494], ["2021-08-05", 0.495], ["2021-08-06", 0.497], ["2021-08-08", 0.502], ["2021-08-10", 0.501], ["2021-08-12", 0.499], ["2021-08-13", 0.498], ["2021-08-16", 0.497], ["2021-08-18", 0.497], ["2021-08-29", 0.497], ["2021-08-31", 0.497], ["2021-09-02", 0.497], ["2021-09-03", 0.498], ["2021-09-06", 0.498], ["2021-09-08", 0.495], ["2021-09-10", 0.494], ["2021-09-11", 0.491], ["2021-09-13", 0.49], ["2021-09-24", 0.49], ["2021-09-26", 0.489], ["2021-09-27", 0.488], ["2021-09-30", 0.486], ["2021-10-01", 0.469]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6296/
|
In 2020, following the COVID-19 pandemic the unemployment rate spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.
|
Economics & Business
|
The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed here.
Related Questions
Unemployment in the US in 2021
Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021
Fine Print
If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.
| true
|
2021-10-01
|
Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-02-14
|
2021-01-13
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-15", 0.485], ["2021-01-15", 0.413], ["2021-01-15", 0.368], ["2021-01-15", 0.356], ["2021-01-15", 0.304], ["2021-01-15", 0.32], ["2021-01-15", 0.313], ["2021-01-15", 0.338], ["2021-01-15", 0.329], ["2021-01-15", 0.348], ["2021-01-15", 0.348], ["2021-01-15", 0.349], ["2021-01-15", 0.337], ["2021-01-15", 0.351], ["2021-01-15", 0.33], ["2021-01-15", 0.328], ["2021-01-15", 0.332], ["2021-01-15", 0.328], ["2021-01-15", 0.322], ["2021-01-15", 0.322], ["2021-01-15", 0.325], ["2021-01-15", 0.325], ["2021-01-15", 0.322], ["2021-01-16", 0.322], ["2021-01-16", 0.32], ["2021-01-16", 0.319], ["2021-01-16", 0.317], ["2021-01-16", 0.315], ["2021-01-16", 0.315], ["2021-01-16", 0.315], ["2021-01-16", 0.315], ["2021-01-16", 0.316], ["2021-01-16", 0.308], ["2021-01-16", 0.309], ["2021-01-16", 0.307], ["2021-01-16", 0.308], ["2021-01-16", 0.31], ["2021-01-16", 0.311], ["2021-01-16", 0.312], ["2021-01-16", 0.312], ["2021-01-16", 0.311], ["2021-01-16", 0.311], ["2021-01-16", 0.308], ["2021-01-16", 0.317], ["2021-01-16", 0.316], ["2021-01-16", 0.317], ["2021-01-16", 0.317], ["2021-01-16", 0.319], ["2021-01-17", 0.32], ["2021-01-17", 0.32], ["2021-01-17", 0.319], ["2021-01-17", 0.316], ["2021-01-17", 0.316], ["2021-01-17", 0.316], ["2021-01-17", 0.317], ["2021-01-17", 0.317], ["2021-01-17", 0.316], ["2021-01-17", 0.315], ["2021-01-17", 0.312], ["2021-01-17", 0.31], ["2021-01-17", 0.31], ["2021-01-17", 0.31], ["2021-01-17", 0.309], ["2021-01-17", 0.309], ["2021-01-17", 0.307], ["2021-01-17", 0.305], ["2021-01-17", 0.304], ["2021-01-17", 0.3], ["2021-01-17", 0.3], ["2021-01-17", 0.298], ["2021-01-17", 0.297], ["2021-01-17", 0.296], ["2021-01-17", 0.295], ["2021-01-17", 0.296], ["2021-01-18", 0.296], ["2021-01-18", 0.296], ["2021-01-18", 0.294], ["2021-01-18", 0.293], ["2021-01-18", 0.291], ["2021-01-18", 0.29], ["2021-01-18", 0.29], ["2021-01-18", 0.29], ["2021-01-18", 0.29], ["2021-01-18", 0.288], ["2021-01-18", 0.288], ["2021-01-18", 0.288], ["2021-01-18", 0.289], ["2021-01-18", 0.289], ["2021-01-18", 0.289], ["2021-01-18", 0.289], ["2021-01-18", 0.287], ["2021-01-18", 0.287], ["2021-01-18", 0.287], ["2021-01-18", 0.287], ["2021-01-18", 0.287], ["2021-01-18", 0.291], ["2021-01-19", 0.289], ["2021-01-19", 0.288], ["2021-01-19", 0.287], ["2021-01-19", 0.286], ["2021-01-19", 0.289]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6303/
|
In the US Constitution, impeachment and conviction are not the same thing. To impeach is to bring charges and is done by the House of Representatives. But it is up to the Senate to convict.
Two-thirds of Senators present must find the president guilty for him to be removed.
The House voted on 13 January to impeach Trump for incitement for insurrection. It will now proceed to the Senate.
In a memo obtained by The Washington Post, Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s office notes that the Senate will not reconvene for substantive business until Jan. 19, which means the earliest possible date that impeachment trial proceedings can begin in the Senate is the day before President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated. It is likely the trial will continue after Trump is no longer President, but he still can be convicted.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positive if Trump is convicted by the Senate by 2/3rds vote, per a credible source. The vote count on congress.gov is considered a credible source. If that source isn’t available, credible media reports will be consulted. This question resolves negative if this does not happen by the end of 2021.
Fine Print
If the trial occurs before the closing date, this question will close retroactively to the minute the trial begins.
Additional impeachments of Trump, if any, beyond the one on 13 Jan 2021 will have no bearing on this question.
| true
|
2021-01-19
|
[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-12-01
|
2021-01-14
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-26", 0.485], ["2021-01-26", 0.542], ["2021-01-26", 0.514], ["2021-01-26", 0.487], ["2021-01-26", 0.411], ["2021-01-27", 0.392], ["2021-01-27", 0.36], ["2021-01-27", 0.36], ["2021-01-27", 0.344], ["2021-01-28", 0.331], ["2021-01-28", 0.309], ["2021-01-28", 0.309], ["2021-01-29", 0.298], ["2021-01-30", 0.298], ["2021-02-02", 0.285], ["2021-02-02", 0.299], ["2021-02-03", 0.292], ["2021-02-03", 0.309], ["2021-02-04", 0.314], ["2021-02-04", 0.33], ["2021-02-04", 0.329], ["2021-02-09", 0.329], ["2021-02-10", 0.334], ["2021-02-10", 0.339], ["2021-02-10", 0.347], ["2021-02-11", 0.354], ["2021-02-17", 0.354], ["2021-03-02", 0.357], ["2021-03-02", 0.34], ["2021-03-03", 0.344], ["2021-03-25", 0.347], ["2021-04-07", 0.353], ["2021-04-10", 0.353], ["2021-04-10", 0.353], ["2021-05-04", 0.345], ["2021-05-04", 0.345], ["2021-05-12", 0.35], ["2021-05-22", 0.347], ["2021-05-23", 0.343], ["2021-05-23", 0.338], ["2021-05-23", 0.336], ["2021-05-23", 0.328], ["2021-06-05", 0.328], ["2021-06-08", 0.31], ["2021-06-09", 0.31], ["2021-06-24", 0.308], ["2021-07-23", 0.308], ["2021-07-26", 0.306], ["2021-07-26", 0.299], ["2021-07-26", 0.282], ["2021-07-26", 0.273], ["2021-07-26", 0.267], ["2021-07-27", 0.258], ["2021-07-27", 0.254], ["2021-07-27", 0.248], ["2021-07-27", 0.245], ["2021-07-28", 0.242], ["2021-07-28", 0.242], ["2021-07-30", 0.24], ["2021-08-01", 0.237], ["2021-08-02", 0.234], ["2021-08-05", 0.234], ["2021-08-10", 0.232], ["2021-09-08", 0.234], ["2021-09-17", 0.233], ["2021-09-25", 0.233], ["2021-10-06", 0.236], ["2021-10-07", 0.236], ["2021-10-09", 0.236], ["2021-10-25", 0.235], ["2021-10-25", 0.226], ["2021-10-27", 0.226], ["2021-10-31", 0.218], ["2021-10-31", 0.217], ["2021-10-31", 0.216], ["2021-10-31", 0.216], ["2021-11-03", 0.211], ["2021-11-06", 0.21], ["2021-11-07", 0.206], ["2021-11-09", 0.205], ["2021-11-11", 0.205], ["2021-11-16", 0.201], ["2021-11-16", 0.192], ["2021-11-16", 0.19], ["2021-11-17", 0.19], ["2021-11-17", 0.185], ["2021-11-17", 0.182], ["2021-11-19", 0.178], ["2021-11-20", 0.177], ["2021-11-21", 0.177], ["2021-11-21", 0.174], ["2021-11-22", 0.174], ["2021-11-24", 0.173], ["2021-11-24", 0.17], ["2021-11-25", 0.168], ["2021-11-26", 0.167], ["2021-11-26", 0.167], ["2021-11-27", 0.162], ["2021-11-30", 0.156], ["2021-11-30", 0.156], ["2021-12-01", 0.154]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6307/
|
During the COVID-19 pandemic there was an concerted shift to work from home. Google, Facebook and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time.
There have also been some high profile tech executives and companies moving out of Silicon Valley.
The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been growing faster than the rest of the country.
|
Economics & Business
|
This question resolves based on the YoY change in Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for "S.F. Bay Area" is <= $1.045m
| true
|
2021-12-31
|
Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-10-18
|
2021-01-15
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-18", 0.6], ["2021-01-18", 0.667], ["2021-01-19", 0.671], ["2021-01-19", 0.642], ["2021-01-20", 0.653], ["2021-01-20", 0.623], ["2021-01-20", 0.628], ["2021-01-21", 0.628], ["2021-01-21", 0.639], ["2021-01-22", 0.644], ["2021-01-23", 0.647], ["2021-01-23", 0.651], ["2021-01-23", 0.66], ["2021-01-24", 0.66], ["2021-01-24", 0.668], ["2021-01-25", 0.669], ["2021-01-25", 0.669], ["2021-01-26", 0.674], ["2021-01-27", 0.676], ["2021-01-28", 0.676], ["2021-01-29", 0.665], ["2021-01-29", 0.664], ["2021-02-04", 0.676], ["2021-02-10", 0.672], ["2021-02-11", 0.672], ["2021-02-11", 0.67], ["2021-02-14", 0.67], ["2021-02-14", 0.671], ["2021-02-15", 0.671], ["2021-02-17", 0.672], ["2021-03-03", 0.677], ["2021-03-04", 0.674], ["2021-04-02", 0.674], ["2021-04-04", 0.677], ["2021-04-04", 0.677], ["2021-04-09", 0.677], ["2021-04-12", 0.677], ["2021-04-14", 0.677], ["2021-04-14", 0.671], ["2021-04-22", 0.65], ["2021-04-22", 0.65], ["2021-04-24", 0.647], ["2021-04-24", 0.645], ["2021-04-25", 0.645], ["2021-04-25", 0.648], ["2021-04-26", 0.648], ["2021-04-26", 0.668], ["2021-04-27", 0.665], ["2021-04-27", 0.65], ["2021-04-27", 0.648], ["2021-04-28", 0.64], ["2021-04-28", 0.634], ["2021-04-28", 0.618], ["2021-04-29", 0.617], ["2021-04-29", 0.61], ["2021-04-29", 0.61], ["2021-04-30", 0.595], ["2021-05-01", 0.591], ["2021-05-01", 0.591], ["2021-05-01", 0.582], ["2021-05-02", 0.582], ["2021-05-02", 0.575], ["2021-05-03", 0.574], ["2021-05-03", 0.574], ["2021-05-03", 0.566], ["2021-05-04", 0.566], ["2021-05-04", 0.565], ["2021-05-05", 0.563], ["2021-05-06", 0.563], ["2021-05-06", 0.564], ["2021-05-07", 0.56], ["2021-05-08", 0.543], ["2021-05-08", 0.54], ["2021-05-08", 0.532], ["2021-05-09", 0.531], ["2021-05-10", 0.531], ["2021-05-10", 0.523], ["2021-05-11", 0.523], ["2021-05-14", 0.514], ["2021-05-15", 0.514], ["2021-05-16", 0.515], ["2021-05-17", 0.508], ["2021-05-17", 0.511], ["2021-05-18", 0.509], ["2021-05-19", 0.509], ["2021-05-19", 0.508], ["2021-05-20", 0.508], ["2021-05-21", 0.504], ["2021-05-22", 0.501], ["2021-05-23", 0.5], ["2021-05-24", 0.5], ["2021-05-24", 0.501], ["2021-05-25", 0.5], ["2021-05-25", 0.494], ["2021-05-27", 0.496], ["2021-05-28", 0.493], ["2021-05-29", 0.493], ["2021-05-29", 0.48], ["2021-05-30", 0.462], ["2021-05-30", 0.441], ["2021-05-30", 0.437]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6316/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Economics & Business
|
India is a middle-income country ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years. The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP.
Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?
Resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S, which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.
| true
|
2021-05-30
|
Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-03-10
|
2021-01-15
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-16", 0.8], ["2021-01-16", 0.925], ["2021-01-16", 0.884], ["2021-01-16", 0.884], ["2021-01-16", 0.903], ["2021-01-16", 0.889], ["2021-01-16", 0.896], ["2021-01-16", 0.904], ["2021-01-16", 0.914], ["2021-01-16", 0.905], ["2021-01-16", 0.905], ["2021-01-16", 0.912], ["2021-01-16", 0.915], ["2021-01-16", 0.912], ["2021-01-16", 0.91], ["2021-01-16", 0.918], ["2021-01-16", 0.918], ["2021-01-16", 0.922], ["2021-01-16", 0.925], ["2021-01-16", 0.929], ["2021-01-16", 0.929], ["2021-01-16", 0.93], ["2021-01-16", 0.931], ["2021-01-16", 0.931], ["2021-01-16", 0.933], ["2021-01-16", 0.934], ["2021-01-16", 0.936], ["2021-01-16", 0.937], ["2021-01-17", 0.937], ["2021-01-17", 0.932], ["2021-01-17", 0.934], ["2021-01-17", 0.936], ["2021-01-17", 0.936], ["2021-01-17", 0.936], ["2021-01-17", 0.936], ["2021-01-17", 0.938], ["2021-01-17", 0.939], ["2021-01-17", 0.939], ["2021-01-17", 0.939], ["2021-01-17", 0.939], ["2021-01-17", 0.939], ["2021-01-17", 0.939], ["2021-01-17", 0.94], ["2021-01-17", 0.941], ["2021-01-17", 0.942], ["2021-01-17", 0.942], ["2021-01-17", 0.942], ["2021-01-17", 0.944], ["2021-01-17", 0.944], ["2021-01-17", 0.944], ["2021-01-17", 0.945], ["2021-01-17", 0.945], ["2021-01-17", 0.946], ["2021-01-17", 0.946], ["2021-01-17", 0.946], ["2021-01-17", 0.948], ["2021-01-17", 0.951], ["2021-01-17", 0.95], ["2021-01-17", 0.95], ["2021-01-17", 0.95], ["2021-01-18", 0.951], ["2021-01-18", 0.951], ["2021-01-18", 0.952], ["2021-01-18", 0.952], ["2021-01-18", 0.952], ["2021-01-18", 0.953], ["2021-01-18", 0.95], ["2021-01-18", 0.95], ["2021-01-18", 0.951], ["2021-01-18", 0.951], ["2021-01-18", 0.952], ["2021-01-18", 0.952], ["2021-01-18", 0.952], ["2021-01-18", 0.952], ["2021-01-18", 0.952], ["2021-01-18", 0.953], ["2021-01-18", 0.951], ["2021-01-18", 0.951], ["2021-01-19", 0.951], ["2021-01-19", 0.951], ["2021-01-19", 0.951], ["2021-01-19", 0.952], ["2021-01-19", 0.953], ["2021-01-19", 0.953], ["2021-01-19", 0.953], ["2021-01-19", 0.954], ["2021-01-19", 0.954], ["2021-01-19", 0.954], ["2021-01-19", 0.955], ["2021-01-19", 0.955], ["2021-01-19", 0.955], ["2021-01-19", 0.955], ["2021-01-19", 0.958], ["2021-01-19", 0.958], ["2021-01-19", 0.958], ["2021-01-19", 0.959], ["2021-01-19", 0.959], ["2021-01-20", 0.959], ["2021-01-20", 0.959], ["2021-01-20", 0.961], ["2021-01-20", 0.961]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6317/
|
One of the primary responsibilities of the US president is to appoint executives to the 22 main departments of the federal government. The US Senate then holds hearings vetting these candidates, and votes to confirm (or reject) them.
A particularly contentious nomination in the Donald Trump administration was Betsy Devos for Secretary of Education. Her nomination came to a close 50-50 vote, with Vice President Mike Pence approving her in a tie-breaking vote on 2017-02-07. Trump's appointments for the Departments of State, Defense, Treasury, and Justice were all held and confirmed by 2017-02-13.
In our era of polarized politics, it has been suggested that Republicans may not approve all of Biden's cabinet nominations, hamstringing his ability to govern. Kelsey Piper predicted there was a 70% chance this would not happen.
|
Politics & Governance
|
The question will resolve positively if the US Senate confirms nominations from the Biden administration for all 4 positions of Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General, by 2021-12-31. These need not be the first nominations made or the current nominations as of 2021-01-15; if any appointments are rejected by the Senate, the question may still be positive if any nominations are confirmed before 2021-12-31.
Fine Print
In the case that Joe Biden is no longer the president, for this question the "Biden administration" will be considered as being led by the President appointed in the Constitutional line of succession.
| true
|
2021-01-20
|
[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2022-01-01
|
2021-01-15
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-02-21", 0.09], ["2021-02-21", 0.09], ["2021-02-21", 0.38], ["2021-02-22", 0.38], ["2021-02-22", 0.388], ["2021-02-23", 0.378], ["2021-02-23", 0.382], ["2021-02-24", 0.382], ["2021-02-24", 0.393], ["2021-02-25", 0.393], ["2021-02-25", 0.335], ["2021-02-26", 0.305], ["2021-02-26", 0.295], ["2021-02-26", 0.289], ["2021-02-27", 0.289], ["2021-02-27", 0.287], ["2021-02-27", 0.277], ["2021-02-28", 0.284], ["2021-02-28", 0.29], ["2021-02-28", 0.304], ["2021-03-01", 0.301], ["2021-03-01", 0.304], ["2021-03-01", 0.3], ["2021-03-01", 0.296], ["2021-03-02", 0.296], ["2021-03-02", 0.295], ["2021-03-03", 0.298], ["2021-03-03", 0.296], ["2021-03-04", 0.299], ["2021-03-09", 0.298], ["2021-03-19", 0.298], ["2021-03-21", 0.291], ["2021-03-21", 0.294], ["2021-04-01", 0.294], ["2021-04-04", 0.293], ["2021-04-08", 0.293], ["2021-04-11", 0.293], ["2021-04-20", 0.292], ["2021-05-07", 0.292], ["2021-05-22", 0.292], ["2021-05-23", 0.292], ["2021-06-07", 0.292], ["2021-06-22", 0.291], ["2021-06-29", 0.291], ["2021-07-08", 0.291], ["2021-07-23", 0.291], ["2021-08-05", 0.289], ["2021-08-07", 0.289], ["2021-08-08", 0.285], ["2021-08-09", 0.285], ["2021-08-09", 0.276], ["2021-08-10", 0.272], ["2021-08-11", 0.27], ["2021-08-12", 0.269], ["2021-08-12", 0.269], ["2021-08-13", 0.267], ["2021-08-15", 0.263], ["2021-08-21", 0.256], ["2021-08-22", 0.255], ["2021-09-05", 0.255], ["2021-09-12", 0.255], ["2021-09-13", 0.251], ["2021-09-16", 0.25], ["2021-09-17", 0.255], ["2021-09-20", 0.255], ["2021-10-03", 0.253], ["2021-10-04", 0.253], ["2021-10-08", 0.252], ["2021-10-10", 0.246], ["2021-10-13", 0.245], ["2021-10-16", 0.24], ["2021-10-18", 0.239], ["2021-10-18", 0.239], ["2021-10-19", 0.234], ["2021-10-21", 0.231], ["2021-10-21", 0.231], ["2021-10-26", 0.224], ["2021-10-31", 0.223], ["2021-11-01", 0.218], ["2021-11-02", 0.218], ["2021-11-02", 0.212], ["2021-11-03", 0.212], ["2021-11-03", 0.205], ["2021-11-03", 0.204], ["2021-11-04", 0.203], ["2021-11-04", 0.206], ["2021-11-05", 0.206], ["2021-11-06", 0.204], ["2021-11-07", 0.206], ["2021-11-07", 0.206], ["2021-11-08", 0.198], ["2021-11-08", 0.197], ["2021-11-08", 0.199], ["2021-11-09", 0.205], ["2021-11-10", 0.205], ["2021-11-10", 0.202], ["2021-11-10", 0.2], ["2021-11-11", 0.196], ["2021-11-11", 0.188], ["2021-11-11", 0.185], ["2021-11-12", 0.177]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6318/
|
According to earthquaketrack.com the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece
The area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.
The 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.
The Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.
|
Environment & Energy
|
This question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.
Earthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Trac
| true
|
2021-11-12
|
Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-11-16
|
2021-01-16
|
["https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00828541/1661550", "https://youtu.be/4wskZIFAHFY", "https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00828541/1661552/", "https://www.npr.org/2022/11/15/1044234232/trump-announces-run-president-2024", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wskZIFAHFY", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wskZIFAHFY&ab_channel=LiveNOWfromFOX", "https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1592691734513086464?t=ItW7jTKgvJJLesGAt5ilOA&s=19", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNKtqmGOqIU&ab_channel=GuardianNews", "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/109346374693158141", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/12/world/politics-diplomacy-world/trump-presidential-run-announcement/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1668221339", "https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/02/business/gmc-chevrolet-recall-windshields/index.html", "https://triblive.com/business/ford-recalls-more-than-650000-vehicles-because-of-windshield-wiper-defect/", "https://www.ft.com/content/0c7da17f-59bc-4c0e-bec4-ef9e0e73fbbc", "https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1590885856478314496", "https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1590341634709131265", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1589816828809080834", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQiKY-kagdU&ab_channel=YourPatrioticPOLITICSNOW", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1589795952940179456", "https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1589647876149645312", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-06/trump-attacks-desantis-as-he-hints-again-at-presidential-run?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/05/world/politics-diplomacy-world/donald-trump-november-14-presidential-run-announcement/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1667617103", "https://youtu.be/z805zCepakY?t=100", "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/04/world/trump-2024-run-likely/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1667541415", "https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1580936466552725504", "https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/status/1580979485523947521", "https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/donald-trump-2024-decision.html", "https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-donald-trump-presidential-herschel-walker-45ce6fb7304a973192d108efb7308720?taid=6340cac162e530000139568f&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter", "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023", "https://tippinsights.com/trump-suffers-zero-electoral-fallout-from-fbis-mar-a-lago-raid-i-i-tipp-poll/", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1573352414618476544", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/trump-allies-form-new-super-pac-with-plans-to-spend-on-midterms?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social", "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1571949945434898434", "https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/pennsylvania-rally-trump-calls-biden-021454019.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEbwJfoKzRAXF9cPSsnHYM1fxMn3kMMWUgzTAQMJqq5B_c6IUGCzXeVEFkKKqojEQizur1P8vWOItng5wMNIpOcOn5NELrE00Ad6YqhPTf5bpxbgjXdgCowSw2Y3RDOnRPxXu3v9T2oCKmpCJI2N9fFpxbw2TG-Q7w9xlBoCUXiz", "https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1566246607632343043", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-will-look-very-favorably-pardons-capitol-rioters-2022-09-01/", "https://morningconsult.com/2022/08/11/fbi-raid-increases-trumps-2024-primary-support/", "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2650328)", "https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/aug/09/can-donald-trump-run-president-if-convicted-removi/", "https://twitter.com/AP/status/1557148005438050309", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1556776115158585346", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/trump-still-holds-sway-in-gop-as-maga-candidates-win-in-key-primary-races.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659548824", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1552632711315132418", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552033907486478343", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552014979288768514", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552015563135893506", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552015935657181186", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552019666897436674", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552021338105200641", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552023125872840704", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552024391285874691", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552034662389792770", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552035225915506688", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552035436498927616", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552037115583729664", "https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1552014754507636736", "https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3852", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1549937342923816962", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/14/trump-2024-announcement-fall/", "https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/donald-trump-2024-decision.html"]
|
binary
|
[["2021-02-14", 0.4], ["2021-02-22", 0.438], ["2021-02-28", 0.484], ["2021-03-08", 0.472], ["2021-03-13", 0.472], ["2021-03-19", 0.471], ["2021-03-24", 0.474], ["2021-03-31", 0.474], ["2021-04-07", 0.479], ["2021-04-12", 0.481], ["2021-04-17", 0.484], ["2021-04-25", 0.493], ["2021-04-29", 0.489], ["2021-05-05", 0.49], ["2021-05-09", 0.495], ["2021-05-16", 0.507], ["2021-05-23", 0.507], ["2021-05-29", 0.507], ["2021-06-03", 0.506], ["2021-06-08", 0.507], ["2021-06-16", 0.506], ["2021-06-22", 0.507], ["2021-06-29", 0.508], ["2021-07-03", 0.509], ["2021-07-11", 0.51], ["2021-07-20", 0.51], ["2021-07-26", 0.509], ["2021-07-30", 0.507], ["2021-08-04", 0.509], ["2021-08-12", 0.509], ["2021-08-20", 0.51], ["2021-08-28", 0.513], ["2021-09-06", 0.534], ["2021-09-11", 0.541], ["2021-09-18", 0.549], ["2021-09-26", 0.549], ["2021-10-04", 0.58], ["2021-10-08", 0.587], ["2021-10-15", 0.588], ["2021-10-20", 0.591], ["2021-10-28", 0.593], ["2021-11-03", 0.594], ["2021-11-11", 0.596], ["2021-11-17", 0.597], ["2021-11-22", 0.601], ["2021-11-28", 0.602], ["2021-12-03", 0.604], ["2021-12-11", 0.604], ["2021-12-15", 0.605], ["2021-12-21", 0.605], ["2021-12-28", 0.609], ["2022-01-02", 0.611], ["2022-01-08", 0.615], ["2022-01-17", 0.618], ["2022-01-24", 0.617], ["2022-01-29", 0.618], ["2022-02-02", 0.623], ["2022-02-07", 0.624], ["2022-02-12", 0.624], ["2022-02-20", 0.623], ["2022-02-28", 0.626], ["2022-03-04", 0.626], ["2022-03-12", 0.628], ["2022-03-17", 0.636], ["2022-03-22", 0.637], ["2022-03-26", 0.641], ["2022-04-01", 0.641], ["2022-04-06", 0.641], ["2022-04-10", 0.642], ["2022-04-15", 0.645], ["2022-04-22", 0.646], ["2022-04-28", 0.648], ["2022-05-06", 0.652], ["2022-05-11", 0.652], ["2022-05-17", 0.653], ["2022-05-23", 0.654], ["2022-05-29", 0.654], ["2022-06-04", 0.655], ["2022-06-11", 0.656], ["2022-06-15", 0.658], ["2022-06-22", 0.659], ["2022-06-29", 0.659], ["2022-07-06", 0.663], ["2022-07-13", 0.665], ["2022-07-20", 0.672], ["2022-07-27", 0.674], ["2022-08-03", 0.684], ["2022-08-11", 0.686], ["2022-08-19", 0.687], ["2022-08-27", 0.689], ["2022-09-04", 0.69], ["2022-09-11", 0.691], ["2022-09-18", 0.691], ["2022-09-27", 0.694], ["2022-10-04", 0.697], ["2022-10-12", 0.699], ["2022-10-21", 0.698], ["2022-10-29", 0.7], ["2022-11-06", 0.712], ["2022-11-15", 0.73], ["2022-11-16", 0.733]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6330/
|
With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been speculation that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also made a comeback.
There has even been speculation by 538 that he would be the favorite for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question will resolve as Yes if Donald Trump declares his candidacy for the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Fine Print
Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed "FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election.
| true
|
2024-11-01
|
Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-12-08
|
2021-01-18
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-25", 0.6], ["2021-01-27", 0.754], ["2021-01-29", 0.732], ["2021-01-31", 0.739], ["2021-02-03", 0.766], ["2021-02-06", 0.773], ["2021-02-09", 0.773], ["2021-02-10", 0.777], ["2021-02-13", 0.777], ["2021-02-16", 0.781], ["2021-02-19", 0.783], ["2021-02-22", 0.783], ["2021-02-23", 0.781], ["2021-02-25", 0.782], ["2021-02-27", 0.782], ["2021-03-01", 0.782], ["2021-03-04", 0.783], ["2021-03-06", 0.784], ["2021-03-09", 0.785], ["2021-03-11", 0.785], ["2021-03-13", 0.785], ["2021-03-15", 0.773], ["2021-03-18", 0.762], ["2021-03-20", 0.756], ["2021-03-22", 0.759], ["2021-03-24", 0.759], ["2021-03-27", 0.758], ["2021-03-29", 0.754], ["2021-03-31", 0.755], ["2021-04-02", 0.755], ["2021-04-04", 0.75], ["2021-04-07", 0.749], ["2021-04-09", 0.748], ["2021-04-11", 0.747], ["2021-04-14", 0.747], ["2021-04-17", 0.747], ["2021-04-19", 0.745], ["2021-04-21", 0.746], ["2021-04-23", 0.746], ["2021-04-25", 0.745], ["2021-04-28", 0.741], ["2021-04-30", 0.711], ["2021-05-02", 0.693], ["2021-05-04", 0.659], ["2021-05-06", 0.624], ["2021-05-09", 0.617], ["2021-05-12", 0.617], ["2021-05-14", 0.625], ["2021-05-17", 0.624], ["2021-05-20", 0.626], ["2021-05-23", 0.624], ["2021-05-27", 0.624], ["2021-05-29", 0.623], ["2021-05-31", 0.623], ["2021-06-02", 0.624], ["2021-06-05", 0.623], ["2021-06-08", 0.628], ["2021-06-10", 0.63], ["2021-06-12", 0.63], ["2021-06-14", 0.633], ["2021-06-16", 0.636], ["2021-06-19", 0.636], ["2021-06-22", 0.643], ["2021-06-24", 0.644], ["2021-06-27", 0.644], ["2021-06-29", 0.644], ["2021-07-01", 0.651], ["2021-07-04", 0.661], ["2021-07-06", 0.675], ["2021-07-08", 0.677], ["2021-07-10", 0.677], ["2021-07-12", 0.69], ["2021-07-14", 0.695], ["2021-07-16", 0.7], ["2021-07-19", 0.702], ["2021-07-21", 0.701], ["2021-07-22", 0.7], ["2021-07-25", 0.699], ["2021-07-27", 0.701], ["2021-07-30", 0.702], ["2021-08-02", 0.702], ["2021-08-04", 0.702], ["2021-08-06", 0.702], ["2021-08-09", 0.704], ["2021-08-11", 0.706], ["2021-08-14", 0.705], ["2021-08-17", 0.702], ["2021-08-18", 0.701], ["2021-08-20", 0.702], ["2021-08-23", 0.696], ["2021-08-26", 0.684], ["2021-08-29", 0.678], ["2021-09-01", 0.662], ["2021-09-04", 0.633], ["2021-09-07", 0.607], ["2021-09-10", 0.588], ["2021-09-13", 0.561], ["2021-09-16", 0.55], ["2021-09-20", 0.54], ["2021-09-23", 0.52], ["2021-09-25", 0.484]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6338/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany is the major party of the center-right in German politics:
The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.
--CDU, wikipedia
CDU currently forms a coalition government with CSU (Christian Social Union), and SPD (Social Democratic Party). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.
The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.
As of the moment of writing this question, the CDU/CSU union steadily leads in election polls. In Vox's Future Perfect series, Dylan Matthews forecasted an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.
Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?
This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.
The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.
In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.
| true
|
2021-09-25
|
Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-10-29
|
2021-01-19
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-23", 0.4], ["2021-01-23", 0.49], ["2021-01-25", 0.478], ["2021-01-26", 0.466], ["2021-01-27", 0.497], ["2021-01-29", 0.487], ["2021-01-31", 0.486], ["2021-02-01", 0.488], ["2021-02-03", 0.478], ["2021-02-05", 0.465], ["2021-02-06", 0.441], ["2021-02-08", 0.429], ["2021-02-10", 0.429], ["2021-02-15", 0.43], ["2021-02-17", 0.435], ["2021-02-24", 0.438], ["2021-02-25", 0.43], ["2021-02-27", 0.423], ["2021-02-28", 0.427], ["2021-03-01", 0.403], ["2021-03-03", 0.419], ["2021-03-03", 0.418], ["2021-03-05", 0.418], ["2021-03-06", 0.411], ["2021-03-13", 0.411], ["2021-03-14", 0.41], ["2021-03-16", 0.411], ["2021-03-17", 0.411], ["2021-03-30", 0.409], ["2021-03-30", 0.409], ["2021-04-07", 0.406], ["2021-04-10", 0.406], ["2021-05-01", 0.406], ["2021-05-01", 0.4], ["2021-05-19", 0.4], ["2021-05-20", 0.398], ["2021-05-23", 0.398], ["2021-05-23", 0.396], ["2021-06-05", 0.396], ["2021-06-06", 0.394], ["2021-06-16", 0.393], ["2021-06-23", 0.396], ["2021-06-24", 0.397], ["2021-06-29", 0.398], ["2021-07-11", 0.397], ["2021-07-15", 0.398], ["2021-07-20", 0.398], ["2021-07-22", 0.398], ["2021-07-23", 0.402], ["2021-07-26", 0.406], ["2021-07-27", 0.401], ["2021-07-28", 0.402], ["2021-08-07", 0.402], ["2021-08-09", 0.416], ["2021-08-10", 0.417], ["2021-08-11", 0.415], ["2021-08-16", 0.415], ["2021-08-17", 0.417], ["2021-08-18", 0.417], ["2021-08-20", 0.419], ["2021-08-21", 0.418], ["2021-08-22", 0.419], ["2021-08-24", 0.419], ["2021-08-24", 0.417], ["2021-08-29", 0.417], ["2021-08-30", 0.432], ["2021-09-01", 0.437], ["2021-09-02", 0.437], ["2021-09-03", 0.419], ["2021-09-04", 0.411], ["2021-09-05", 0.411], ["2021-09-06", 0.396], ["2021-09-07", 0.389], ["2021-09-08", 0.386], ["2021-09-10", 0.373], ["2021-09-13", 0.369], ["2021-09-15", 0.367], ["2021-09-17", 0.366], ["2021-09-18", 0.37], ["2021-09-19", 0.368], ["2021-09-21", 0.368], ["2021-09-22", 0.368], ["2021-09-24", 0.368], ["2021-09-26", 0.368], ["2021-09-28", 0.368], ["2021-09-29", 0.357], ["2021-10-01", 0.35], ["2021-10-02", 0.332], ["2021-10-03", 0.329], ["2021-10-05", 0.324], ["2021-10-05", 0.317], ["2021-10-07", 0.315], ["2021-10-08", 0.313], ["2021-10-09", 0.307], ["2021-10-10", 0.295], ["2021-10-11", 0.283], ["2021-10-13", 0.281], ["2021-10-15", 0.273], ["2021-10-16", 0.241], ["2021-10-18", 0.185], ["2021-10-18", 0.175]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6348/
|
Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.
It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see the Metaculus question).
It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see the Metaculus question).
|
Science & Tech
|
The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).
This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.
This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.
Fine Print
Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.
Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event.
| true
|
2021-10-19
|
Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2023-01-03
|
2021-01-21
|
["https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-returns-office-troubled-divided-brazil-2023-01-01/", "https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/thais-oyama/2022/12/30/para-nao-prestar-continencia-a-lula-comandante-da-marinha-nao-ira-a-evento.htm", "https://ground.news/article/351611df-bf3c-4584-9f10-a49307f3a412", "https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-01/brazils-bolsonaro-avoids-concession-to-lula-but-transition-to-begin", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-wins-brazilian-election-bolsonaro-has-not-conceded-2022-10-31/?taid=635fa3ad6c9af10001661991&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8005/coup-by-bolsonaro-by-january-2-2023/", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8005/coup-by-bolsonaro-by-january-2-2023/)", "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/#comment-54665)", "https://ftx.com/trade/BOLSONARO2022", "https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1586726616985751554", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolsonaro-lula-trade-blows-bruising-final-brazil-election-debate-2022-10-29/?taid=635da96ebe9c93000188d51c&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://ftx.com/trade/BOLSONARO2022", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/what-to-know-about-bolsonaro-lula-showdown-in-brazil/2022/10/20/3392778c-503d-11ed-ada8-04e6e6bf8b19_story.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-presidential-race-statistically-tied-between-lula-bolsonaro-poll-2022-10-19/?taid=63509313b2447a00018d4c6a&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-remains-ahead-bolsonaro-brazil-runoff-poll-2022-10-10/?taid=63449f4849b69900010062f5&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://twitter.com/JgaltTweets/status/1579603515366076417", "https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1579474512198144000", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election#Second_round", "https://www.economist.com/interactive/brazil-2022", "https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/1577702811076132869", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-gets-support-third-place-candidate-brazil-presidential-race-2022-10-05/?taid=633e05784af84c00016f4f1f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/06/09/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-jair-bolsonaro-of-brazil-before-bilateral-meeting/", "https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1576713687372791808", "https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados", "https://ftx.com/trade/BOLSONARO2022", "https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados", "https://ftx.com/en/trade/BOLSONARO2022", "https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pesquisas_eleitorais_para_a_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_de_2022_no_Brasil#Segundo_turno", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazilian-soccer-star-neymar-backs-bolsonaro-ahead-sunday-vote-2022-09-29/", "https://electionbettingodds.com/Brazil2022.html"]
|
binary
|
[["2021-02-04", 0.31], ["2021-02-11", 0.637], ["2021-02-17", 0.643], ["2021-02-24", 0.643], ["2021-03-05", 0.648], ["2021-03-11", 0.646], ["2021-03-20", 0.572], ["2021-03-27", 0.508], ["2021-04-03", 0.501], ["2021-04-08", 0.501], ["2021-04-16", 0.494], ["2021-04-22", 0.493], ["2021-04-27", 0.493], ["2021-05-02", 0.484], ["2021-05-19", 0.489], ["2021-05-23", 0.485], ["2021-05-29", 0.481], ["2021-06-03", 0.481], ["2021-06-09", 0.45], ["2021-06-15", 0.45], ["2021-06-19", 0.447], ["2021-06-26", 0.432], ["2021-07-04", 0.432], ["2021-07-13", 0.396], ["2021-07-17", 0.38], ["2021-07-23", 0.376], ["2021-07-28", 0.377], ["2021-08-04", 0.378], ["2021-08-08", 0.375], ["2021-08-16", 0.371], ["2021-08-21", 0.37], ["2021-08-28", 0.369], ["2021-09-02", 0.366], ["2021-09-10", 0.362], ["2021-09-18", 0.357], ["2021-09-26", 0.357], ["2021-10-04", 0.345], ["2021-10-10", 0.342], ["2021-10-14", 0.34], ["2021-10-22", 0.33], ["2021-10-31", 0.33], ["2021-11-06", 0.33], ["2021-11-15", 0.33], ["2021-11-20", 0.33], ["2021-11-27", 0.327], ["2021-12-07", 0.326], ["2021-12-14", 0.325], ["2021-12-21", 0.319], ["2021-12-29", 0.315], ["2022-01-05", 0.302], ["2022-01-10", 0.298], ["2022-01-18", 0.296], ["2022-01-24", 0.294], ["2022-02-01", 0.294], ["2022-02-09", 0.31], ["2022-02-14", 0.311], ["2022-02-21", 0.316], ["2022-03-01", 0.314], ["2022-03-09", 0.314], ["2022-03-17", 0.313], ["2022-03-25", 0.311], ["2022-03-30", 0.311], ["2022-04-04", 0.311], ["2022-04-09", 0.311], ["2022-04-18", 0.314], ["2022-04-23", 0.316], ["2022-04-28", 0.317], ["2022-05-04", 0.318], ["2022-05-11", 0.319], ["2022-05-17", 0.317], ["2022-05-23", 0.315], ["2022-05-29", 0.314], ["2022-06-04", 0.313], ["2022-06-11", 0.311], ["2022-06-15", 0.311], ["2022-06-23", 0.311], ["2022-06-29", 0.31], ["2022-07-14", 0.31], ["2022-07-16", 0.31], ["2022-07-24", 0.31], ["2022-08-04", 0.309], ["2022-08-11", 0.31], ["2022-08-19", 0.309], ["2022-08-24", 0.309], ["2022-08-31", 0.308], ["2022-09-07", 0.308], ["2022-09-13", 0.305], ["2022-09-21", 0.306], ["2022-09-29", 0.3], ["2022-10-08", 0.264], ["2022-10-16", 0.268], ["2022-10-25", 0.275], ["2022-11-02", 0.202], ["2022-11-10", 0.196], ["2022-11-17", 0.195], ["2022-11-26", 0.195], ["2022-12-04", 0.192], ["2022-12-13", 0.187], ["2022-12-17", 0.186], ["2022-12-24", 0.184], ["2023-01-01", 0.158]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6359/
|
All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.
Political support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, ascending after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and dropping as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his mishandling of the pandemic in Brazil, bad economic performance, corruption, and disregard for the due democratic process.
Adding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro already contested the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on January 2, 2023.
It resolves negative if he is not president at that time.
Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, autogolpe, and coup d'état, we must wait till the resolution date.
Fine Print
In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on January 1, 2023, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution.
| true
|
2023-01-01
|
Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2022-12-15
|
2021-01-22
|
["https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220719005248/en/Synchron-Announces-First-Human-U.S.-Brain-Computer-Interface-Implant", "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220719005248/en/Synchron-Announces-First-Human-U.S.-Brain-Computer-Interface-Implant", "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221027005126/en/Synchron-to-Begin-Patient-Enrollment-for-the-COMMAND-Trial-of-a-Brain-Computer-Interface-at-University-of-Pittsburgh", "https://fortune.com/2022/12/15/jeff-bezos-bill-gates-invest-brain-computer-interface-startup-synchron-amid-elon-musk-neuralink-controversy/", "https://fortune.com/2022/12/15/jeff-bezos-bill-gates-invest-brain-computer-interface-startup-synchron-amid-elon-musk-neuralink-controversy/"]
|
binary
|
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|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6364/
|
Despite widespread rumors, Bill Gates, formerly the richest man in the world, has yet to announce a program to implant brain-computer interfaces in the world population. Snopes rated the following claim false:
Bill Gates ... seeks to "microchip" the world population
However, this could easily change. Elon Musk, the world's richest man as of January 2021, has founded Neuralink, which aims to ultimately implant brain-computer interfaces in humans and has already implanted a brain-computer interface in a pig:
Elon Musk has unveiled a pig called Gertrude with a coin-sized computer chip in her brain to demonstrate his ambitious plans to create a working brain-to-machine interface.
|
Science & Tech
|
This question will resolve as Yes if Bill Gates (or the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, or any other foudation of which he is the founder) owns a stake in any company or non-profit, or made a grant to any company, non-profit, or researcher, that has implanted a brain-computer interface in at least one person before January 1, 2031, according to credible media reports.
Fine Print
If the company in question was public prior to Gates obtaining a stake in it, then he must own at least 1% of the company and a minimum of $10 million for this to resolve as Yes.
| true
|
2031-01-01
|
Will Bill Gates fund a brain-computer interface company before 2031?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-08-26
|
2021-01-22
|
[]
|
binary
|
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|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6367/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Education & Research
|
In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester.
The office of the president has announced that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight.
The UC Berkeley course catalog currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either "in-person", "flexible", or "hybrid" with the large majority being listed as "remote".
Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?
This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021 at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either "in-person", "flexible", or "hybrid" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes.
In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.
If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.
| true
|
2021-08-01
|
Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-04-20
|
2021-01-23
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-29", 0.4], ["2021-01-29", 0.402], ["2021-01-29", 0.42], ["2021-01-29", 0.406], ["2021-01-30", 0.407], ["2021-01-30", 0.407], ["2021-01-30", 0.419], ["2021-01-30", 0.439], ["2021-01-30", 0.439], ["2021-01-31", 0.442], ["2021-02-01", 0.442], ["2021-02-01", 0.463], ["2021-02-01", 0.472], ["2021-02-01", 0.471], ["2021-02-02", 0.473], ["2021-02-02", 0.468], ["2021-02-03", 0.444], ["2021-02-03", 0.443], ["2021-02-03", 0.452], ["2021-02-03", 0.434], ["2021-02-04", 0.432], ["2021-02-04", 0.426], ["2021-02-05", 0.424], ["2021-02-09", 0.43], ["2021-02-09", 0.431], ["2021-02-10", 0.431], ["2021-02-10", 0.431], ["2021-02-15", 0.437], ["2021-02-16", 0.437], ["2021-02-19", 0.439], ["2021-02-22", 0.449], ["2021-02-22", 0.453], ["2021-02-22", 0.461], ["2021-02-22", 0.472], ["2021-02-23", 0.472], ["2021-02-23", 0.473], ["2021-02-23", 0.481], ["2021-02-23", 0.481], ["2021-02-23", 0.478], ["2021-02-24", 0.478], ["2021-02-26", 0.482], ["2021-02-28", 0.51], ["2021-02-28", 0.51], ["2021-03-01", 0.515], ["2021-03-01", 0.519], ["2021-03-01", 0.523], ["2021-03-01", 0.524], ["2021-03-02", 0.523], ["2021-03-02", 0.521], ["2021-03-07", 0.522], ["2021-03-12", 0.525], ["2021-03-13", 0.523], ["2021-03-13", 0.523], ["2021-03-14", 0.514], ["2021-03-15", 0.514], ["2021-03-15", 0.519], ["2021-03-15", 0.519], ["2021-03-16", 0.519], ["2021-03-17", 0.542], ["2021-03-17", 0.544], ["2021-03-17", 0.544], ["2021-03-17", 0.55], ["2021-03-18", 0.551], ["2021-03-18", 0.555], ["2021-03-19", 0.558], ["2021-03-19", 0.558], ["2021-03-19", 0.56], ["2021-03-19", 0.57], ["2021-03-20", 0.572], ["2021-03-21", 0.573], ["2021-03-21", 0.573], ["2021-03-21", 0.578], ["2021-03-22", 0.578], ["2021-03-22", 0.592], ["2021-03-22", 0.612], ["2021-03-23", 0.612], ["2021-03-23", 0.616], ["2021-03-23", 0.62], ["2021-03-24", 0.624], ["2021-03-24", 0.624], ["2021-03-25", 0.611], ["2021-03-25", 0.611], ["2021-03-25", 0.611], ["2021-03-25", 0.613], ["2021-03-26", 0.624], ["2021-03-26", 0.634], ["2021-03-26", 0.634], ["2021-03-26", 0.635], ["2021-03-26", 0.636], ["2021-03-27", 0.637], ["2021-03-27", 0.637], ["2021-03-27", 0.642], ["2021-03-28", 0.643], ["2021-03-29", 0.645], ["2021-03-29", 0.645], ["2021-03-29", 0.647], ["2021-03-30", 0.651], ["2021-03-30", 0.652], ["2021-03-31", 0.705], ["2021-03-31", 0.714], ["2021-03-31", 0.714]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6371/
|
On 21st January 2021, it was announced that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, "Will any festivals happen this summer?", struck a largely pessimistic tone:
In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.
But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.
Shambala is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.
If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.
Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian
| true
|
2021-03-31
|
Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-03-24
|
2021-01-23
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-28", 0.95], ["2021-01-28", 0.893], ["2021-01-28", 0.854], ["2021-01-28", 0.856], ["2021-01-29", 0.851], ["2021-01-29", 0.842], ["2021-01-29", 0.843], ["2021-01-30", 0.822], ["2021-01-30", 0.825], ["2021-01-30", 0.825], ["2021-01-31", 0.829], ["2021-01-31", 0.829], ["2021-01-31", 0.828], ["2021-02-01", 0.825], ["2021-02-01", 0.821], ["2021-02-01", 0.815], ["2021-02-01", 0.816], ["2021-02-02", 0.813], ["2021-02-02", 0.812], ["2021-02-03", 0.812], ["2021-02-03", 0.815], ["2021-02-03", 0.809], ["2021-02-04", 0.806], ["2021-02-04", 0.805], ["2021-02-05", 0.803], ["2021-02-05", 0.803], ["2021-02-05", 0.804], ["2021-02-06", 0.806], ["2021-02-06", 0.806], ["2021-02-07", 0.806], ["2021-02-07", 0.807], ["2021-02-07", 0.809], ["2021-02-08", 0.809], ["2021-02-09", 0.806], ["2021-02-10", 0.807], ["2021-02-10", 0.802], ["2021-02-11", 0.801], ["2021-02-11", 0.802], ["2021-02-14", 0.802], ["2021-02-14", 0.806], ["2021-02-14", 0.806], ["2021-02-15", 0.806], ["2021-02-15", 0.807], ["2021-02-16", 0.807], ["2021-02-16", 0.804], ["2021-02-17", 0.807], ["2021-02-17", 0.804], ["2021-02-18", 0.804], ["2021-02-18", 0.806], ["2021-02-19", 0.806], ["2021-02-20", 0.807], ["2021-02-20", 0.808], ["2021-02-21", 0.808], ["2021-02-21", 0.811], ["2021-02-22", 0.812], ["2021-02-22", 0.811], ["2021-02-23", 0.811], ["2021-02-23", 0.809], ["2021-02-25", 0.809], ["2021-02-25", 0.809], ["2021-02-26", 0.813], ["2021-02-27", 0.814], ["2021-02-27", 0.814], ["2021-02-28", 0.817], ["2021-03-01", 0.817], ["2021-03-02", 0.814], ["2021-03-03", 0.814], ["2021-03-03", 0.814], ["2021-03-04", 0.816], ["2021-03-04", 0.815], ["2021-03-05", 0.816], ["2021-03-06", 0.816], ["2021-03-07", 0.818], ["2021-03-08", 0.818], ["2021-03-08", 0.816], ["2021-03-09", 0.816], ["2021-03-09", 0.816], ["2021-03-09", 0.817], ["2021-03-10", 0.817], ["2021-03-10", 0.816], ["2021-03-11", 0.815], ["2021-03-11", 0.815], ["2021-03-11", 0.815], ["2021-03-12", 0.815], ["2021-03-12", 0.813], ["2021-03-13", 0.813], ["2021-03-14", 0.814], ["2021-03-14", 0.809], ["2021-03-14", 0.809], ["2021-03-15", 0.809], ["2021-03-16", 0.81], ["2021-03-16", 0.813], ["2021-03-16", 0.813], ["2021-03-17", 0.815], ["2021-03-19", 0.815], ["2021-03-20", 0.817], ["2021-03-20", 0.817], ["2021-03-21", 0.824], ["2021-03-21", 0.83], ["2021-03-21", 0.835], ["2021-03-21", 0.836]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6372/
|
An election will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party won the previous election and is leading in polls.
This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike a related question this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.
|
Politics & Governance
|
This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 202
| true
|
2021-03-21
|
In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-01-28
|
2021-01-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-25", 0.125], ["2021-01-25", 0.35], ["2021-01-25", 0.327], ["2021-01-25", 0.3], ["2021-01-25", 0.298], ["2021-01-25", 0.215], ["2021-01-25", 0.207], ["2021-01-25", 0.201], ["2021-01-25", 0.186], ["2021-01-25", 0.187], ["2021-01-25", 0.176], ["2021-01-25", 0.166], ["2021-01-25", 0.163], ["2021-01-25", 0.16], ["2021-01-26", 0.156], ["2021-01-26", 0.153], ["2021-01-26", 0.149], ["2021-01-26", 0.148], ["2021-01-26", 0.148], ["2021-01-26", 0.143], ["2021-01-26", 0.143], ["2021-01-26", 0.141], ["2021-01-26", 0.148], ["2021-01-26", 0.145], ["2021-01-26", 0.145], ["2021-01-26", 0.145], ["2021-01-26", 0.146], ["2021-01-26", 0.144], ["2021-01-26", 0.141], ["2021-01-26", 0.139], ["2021-01-26", 0.139], ["2021-01-26", 0.141], ["2021-01-26", 0.141], ["2021-01-26", 0.144], ["2021-01-26", 0.143], ["2021-01-26", 0.143], ["2021-01-26", 0.145], ["2021-01-26", 0.149], ["2021-01-26", 0.166], ["2021-01-26", 0.195], ["2021-01-26", 0.196], ["2021-01-26", 0.195], ["2021-01-27", 0.199], ["2021-01-27", 0.211], ["2021-01-27", 0.21], ["2021-01-27", 0.21], ["2021-01-27", 0.212], ["2021-01-27", 0.216], ["2021-01-27", 0.215], ["2021-01-27", 0.216], ["2021-01-27", 0.22], ["2021-01-27", 0.241], ["2021-01-27", 0.243], ["2021-01-27", 0.242], ["2021-01-27", 0.242], ["2021-01-27", 0.255], ["2021-01-27", 0.254], ["2021-01-27", 0.257], ["2021-01-27", 0.259], ["2021-01-27", 0.26], ["2021-01-27", 0.262], ["2021-01-27", 0.28], ["2021-01-27", 0.313], ["2021-01-27", 0.335], ["2021-01-27", 0.354], ["2021-01-27", 0.357], ["2021-01-27", 0.362], ["2021-01-27", 0.37], ["2021-01-27", 0.386], ["2021-01-27", 0.395], ["2021-01-27", 0.401], ["2021-01-27", 0.4], ["2021-01-27", 0.412], ["2021-01-27", 0.416], ["2021-01-27", 0.416], ["2021-01-27", 0.416], ["2021-01-27", 0.42], ["2021-01-27", 0.417], ["2021-01-28", 0.404], ["2021-01-28", 0.397], ["2021-01-28", 0.414], ["2021-01-28", 0.416], ["2021-01-28", 0.42], ["2021-01-28", 0.42], ["2021-01-28", 0.424], ["2021-01-28", 0.423], ["2021-01-28", 0.424], ["2021-01-28", 0.432], ["2021-01-28", 0.433], ["2021-01-28", 0.438], ["2021-01-28", 0.443], ["2021-01-28", 0.445], ["2021-01-28", 0.445], ["2021-01-28", 0.447], ["2021-01-28", 0.473], ["2021-01-28", 0.497], ["2021-01-28", 0.521], ["2021-01-28", 0.546], ["2021-01-28", 0.567], ["2021-01-28", 0.583], ["2021-01-28", 0.616]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6379/
|
As of January 2021, the stock price of GameStop (GME) is seeing the sharpest rise in its history.
The Reddit user /u/deepfuckingvalue active on r/wallstreetbets seems to have predicted the rise of this stock as early as 2 years ago. Now r/wallstreetbets is very bullish on GME and they predict a $420.69 price.
r/wallstreetbets, and the GME rise in general, has gotten a lot of media attention. This atypical situation, in which r/wallstreetbets seems to play a sort of role (it's still unclear how influential they really are) has also happened recently with the relatively sudden rise of other stocks such as TSLA, PLTR, and NIO.
|
Economics & Business
|
The question will resolve positively if the GME stock price will reach $420.69 by the end of 2021, as indicated by Google. Otherwise, negatively
| true
|
2021-03-30
|
Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-12-30
|
2021-01-24
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-27", 0.4], ["2021-01-29", 0.557], ["2021-01-31", 0.557], ["2021-02-03", 0.559], ["2021-02-04", 0.559], ["2021-02-06", 0.556], ["2021-02-09", 0.556], ["2021-02-11", 0.574], ["2021-02-13", 0.563], ["2021-02-16", 0.553], ["2021-02-17", 0.54], ["2021-02-20", 0.549], ["2021-02-21", 0.549], ["2021-02-23", 0.549], ["2021-02-26", 0.552], ["2021-02-28", 0.546], ["2021-03-04", 0.546], ["2021-03-06", 0.535], ["2021-03-08", 0.527], ["2021-03-11", 0.526], ["2021-03-17", 0.526], ["2021-03-19", 0.518], ["2021-03-22", 0.517], ["2021-03-24", 0.517], ["2021-03-27", 0.514], ["2021-03-28", 0.497], ["2021-03-30", 0.495], ["2021-04-02", 0.482], ["2021-04-04", 0.482], ["2021-04-06", 0.48], ["2021-04-08", 0.478], ["2021-04-10", 0.479], ["2021-04-12", 0.477], ["2021-04-13", 0.477], ["2021-04-15", 0.487], ["2021-04-17", 0.492], ["2021-04-18", 0.494], ["2021-04-19", 0.497], ["2021-04-22", 0.532], ["2021-04-25", 0.536], ["2021-04-27", 0.538], ["2021-04-28", 0.528], ["2021-04-30", 0.528], ["2021-05-01", 0.528], ["2021-05-03", 0.535], ["2021-05-05", 0.537], ["2021-05-07", 0.535], ["2021-05-10", 0.538], ["2021-05-13", 0.527], ["2021-05-15", 0.524], ["2021-05-18", 0.527], ["2021-05-20", 0.53], ["2021-05-22", 0.53], ["2021-05-24", 0.533], ["2021-05-26", 0.534], ["2021-05-27", 0.535], ["2021-05-30", 0.535], ["2021-06-01", 0.527], ["2021-06-03", 0.527], ["2021-06-05", 0.526], ["2021-06-08", 0.524], ["2021-06-09", 0.517], ["2021-06-12", 0.516], ["2021-06-14", 0.513], ["2021-06-16", 0.512], ["2021-06-18", 0.507], ["2021-06-21", 0.503], ["2021-06-23", 0.495], ["2021-06-24", 0.49], ["2021-06-26", 0.49], ["2021-06-28", 0.49], ["2021-06-30", 0.487], ["2021-07-05", 0.485], ["2021-07-06", 0.482], ["2021-07-08", 0.482], ["2021-07-10", 0.482], ["2021-07-12", 0.484], ["2021-07-13", 0.483], ["2021-07-15", 0.479], ["2021-07-17", 0.483], ["2021-07-20", 0.479], ["2021-07-22", 0.478], ["2021-07-23", 0.475], ["2021-07-25", 0.471], ["2021-07-28", 0.467], ["2021-07-30", 0.462], ["2021-08-01", 0.452], ["2021-08-03", 0.447], ["2021-08-05", 0.429], ["2021-08-08", 0.424], ["2021-08-10", 0.417], ["2021-08-12", 0.402], ["2021-08-14", 0.396], ["2021-08-17", 0.39], ["2021-08-19", 0.377], ["2021-08-21", 0.375], ["2021-08-24", 0.371], ["2021-08-25", 0.371], ["2021-08-27", 0.369], ["2021-08-30", 0.368], ["2021-09-01", 0.324]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6381/
|
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration officially withdrew from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.
On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."
|
Politics & Governance
|
This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.
Fine Print
If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA.
| true
|
2021-09-01
|
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
|
metaculus
| 0
|
2021-11-15
|
2021-01-25
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-02-02", 0.4], ["2021-02-02", 0.4], ["2021-02-02", 0.24], ["2021-02-03", 0.22], ["2021-02-03", 0.222], ["2021-02-03", 0.241], ["2021-02-03", 0.253], ["2021-02-03", 0.258], ["2021-02-03", 0.258], ["2021-02-03", 0.23], ["2021-02-03", 0.231], ["2021-02-03", 0.234], ["2021-02-03", 0.227], ["2021-02-04", 0.219], ["2021-02-04", 0.219], ["2021-02-04", 0.193], ["2021-02-04", 0.189], ["2021-02-04", 0.184], ["2021-02-04", 0.183], ["2021-02-04", 0.183], ["2021-02-04", 0.177], ["2021-02-05", 0.177], ["2021-02-05", 0.173], ["2021-02-05", 0.168], ["2021-02-06", 0.168], ["2021-02-07", 0.169], ["2021-02-07", 0.168], ["2021-02-07", 0.168], ["2021-02-07", 0.164], ["2021-02-07", 0.172], ["2021-02-08", 0.168], ["2021-02-08", 0.163], ["2021-02-08", 0.163], ["2021-02-08", 0.161], ["2021-02-10", 0.164], ["2021-03-02", 0.163], ["2021-03-02", 0.16], ["2021-03-02", 0.16], ["2021-03-12", 0.16], ["2021-04-04", 0.158], ["2021-04-07", 0.159], ["2021-04-10", 0.159], ["2021-04-14", 0.162], ["2021-04-19", 0.164], ["2021-04-24", 0.163], ["2021-04-24", 0.167], ["2021-05-02", 0.167], ["2021-05-07", 0.164], ["2021-05-23", 0.164], ["2021-05-30", 0.169], ["2021-06-09", 0.169], ["2021-06-19", 0.164], ["2021-06-28", 0.164], ["2021-06-28", 0.163], ["2021-07-04", 0.163], ["2021-07-05", 0.158], ["2021-07-06", 0.158], ["2021-07-06", 0.155], ["2021-07-07", 0.155], ["2021-07-15", 0.155], ["2021-07-15", 0.156], ["2021-07-20", 0.156], ["2021-07-20", 0.156], ["2021-07-23", 0.156], ["2021-07-24", 0.155], ["2021-07-24", 0.155], ["2021-07-24", 0.155], ["2021-07-31", 0.155], ["2021-08-05", 0.154], ["2021-08-05", 0.154], ["2021-08-05", 0.154], ["2021-08-06", 0.151], ["2021-08-11", 0.149], ["2021-08-14", 0.149], ["2021-08-15", 0.149], ["2021-08-15", 0.149], ["2021-08-15", 0.149], ["2021-08-15", 0.15], ["2021-08-22", 0.148], ["2021-08-22", 0.149], ["2021-08-23", 0.149], ["2021-08-23", 0.147], ["2021-08-24", 0.145], ["2021-08-24", 0.147], ["2021-08-25", 0.147], ["2021-08-25", 0.145], ["2021-08-28", 0.147], ["2021-08-28", 0.147], ["2021-08-29", 0.146], ["2021-08-29", 0.146], ["2021-08-30", 0.145], ["2021-08-30", 0.143], ["2021-08-30", 0.142], ["2021-08-30", 0.142], ["2021-08-30", 0.14], ["2021-08-30", 0.14], ["2021-08-30", 0.14], ["2021-08-30", 0.139], ["2021-08-31", 0.138], ["2021-08-31", 0.138], ["2021-08-31", 0.137]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6384/
|
The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons.
On a chart of IMDb ratings you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.
The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was Barthood in 2015.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.
Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like Wayback Machine or Archive.Today.
Fine Print
The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See here for an example.
If a crossover episode, like Simpsorama, achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on The Simpsons IMDb page and not the page of the show it crosses over with.
This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria.
| true
|
2021-08-31
|
Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?
|
metaculus
| 1
|
2021-02-08
|
2021-01-26
|
[]
|
binary
|
[["2021-01-27", 0.345], ["2021-01-27", 0.382], ["2021-01-27", 0.388], ["2021-01-27", 0.389], ["2021-01-27", 0.426], ["2021-01-27", 0.422], ["2021-01-27", 0.421], ["2021-01-27", 0.415], ["2021-01-27", 0.418], ["2021-01-27", 0.407], ["2021-01-27", 0.404], ["2021-01-28", 0.397], ["2021-01-28", 0.398], ["2021-01-28", 0.402], ["2021-01-28", 0.402], ["2021-01-28", 0.412], ["2021-01-28", 0.409], ["2021-01-28", 0.409], ["2021-01-28", 0.408], ["2021-01-28", 0.413], ["2021-01-28", 0.407], ["2021-01-28", 0.407], ["2021-01-28", 0.42], ["2021-01-28", 0.419], ["2021-01-28", 0.419], ["2021-01-29", 0.419], ["2021-01-29", 0.419], ["2021-01-29", 0.421], ["2021-01-29", 0.421], ["2021-01-29", 0.421], ["2021-01-29", 0.422], ["2021-01-29", 0.422], ["2021-01-30", 0.422], ["2021-01-30", 0.416], ["2021-01-30", 0.407], ["2021-01-30", 0.405], ["2021-01-30", 0.407], ["2021-01-30", 0.407], ["2021-01-31", 0.409], ["2021-01-31", 0.41], ["2021-01-31", 0.411], ["2021-01-31", 0.413], ["2021-01-31", 0.413], ["2021-02-01", 0.413], ["2021-02-01", 0.413], ["2021-02-01", 0.412], ["2021-02-01", 0.412], ["2021-02-01", 0.412], ["2021-02-01", 0.415], ["2021-02-01", 0.416], ["2021-02-01", 0.415], ["2021-02-01", 0.415], ["2021-02-01", 0.415], ["2021-02-01", 0.413], ["2021-02-02", 0.413], ["2021-02-02", 0.412], ["2021-02-02", 0.414], ["2021-02-02", 0.414], ["2021-02-02", 0.413], ["2021-02-02", 0.413], ["2021-02-02", 0.415], ["2021-02-03", 0.416], ["2021-02-03", 0.416], ["2021-02-03", 0.416], ["2021-02-03", 0.418], ["2021-02-03", 0.422], ["2021-02-03", 0.422], ["2021-02-03", 0.423], ["2021-02-03", 0.421], ["2021-02-03", 0.422], ["2021-02-03", 0.422], ["2021-02-04", 0.422], ["2021-02-04", 0.422], ["2021-02-04", 0.422], ["2021-02-04", 0.422], ["2021-02-04", 0.42], ["2021-02-04", 0.42], ["2021-02-04", 0.421], ["2021-02-05", 0.421], ["2021-02-05", 0.421], ["2021-02-05", 0.418], ["2021-02-05", 0.418], ["2021-02-05", 0.418], ["2021-02-06", 0.418], ["2021-02-06", 0.416], ["2021-02-06", 0.414], ["2021-02-06", 0.413], ["2021-02-06", 0.413], ["2021-02-06", 0.413], ["2021-02-06", 0.414], ["2021-02-06", 0.414], ["2021-02-06", 0.414], ["2021-02-06", 0.414], ["2021-02-06", 0.414], ["2021-02-06", 0.417], ["2021-02-06", 0.417], ["2021-02-06", 0.417], ["2021-02-06", 0.417], ["2021-02-06", 0.418], ["2021-02-07", 0.418], ["2021-02-07", 0.419]]
|
https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6393/
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Sports
|
Super Bowl LV is the 55th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2020 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 7 February 2021 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
Metaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports?
The Buccaneers will be the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium and their quarterback, Tom Brady, will play in a record 10th Super Bowl - the most for any quarterback.
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?
This question resolves positive if the Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV, per credible media reporting.
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2021-02-07
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[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?
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metaculus
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