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2022-01-14 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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How Alcoa (AA) Stock Stands Out in a Strong Industry
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One stock that might be an intriguing choice for investors right now is Alcoa Corporation AA. This is because this security in the Metal Products - Distribution space is seeing solid earnings estimate revision activity, and is in great company from a Zacks Industry Rank perspective.
This is important because, often times, a rising tide will lift all boats in an industry, as there can be broad trends taking place in a segment that are boosting securities across the board. This is arguably taking place in Metal Products - Distribution space as it currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 27 out of more than 250 industries, suggesting it is well-positioned from this perspective, especially when compared to other segments out there.
Meanwhile, Alcoa is actually looking pretty good on its own too. The firm has seen solid earnings estimate revision activity over the past month, suggesting analysts are becoming a bit more bullish on the firm’s prospects in both the short and long term.
Alcoa Price and Consensus
Alcoa price-consensus-chart | Alcoa Quote
In fact, over the past 30 days, current quarter estimates have moved from $1.95 per share to $2.04 per share, while current year estimates have moved from $5.45 per share to $6.48 per share. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which is also a favorable signal. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
So, if you are looking for a decent pick in a strong industry, consider Alcoa. Not only is its industry currently in the top third, but it is seeing solid estimate revisions as of late, suggesting it could be a very interesting choice for investors seeking a name in this great industry segment.
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To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
Zacks Investment Research
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2022-01-12 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa (AA) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
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Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Alcoa (AA) reports results for the quarter ended December 2021. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on January 19. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on theearnings callwill mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This bauxite, alumina and aluminum products company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.04 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +684.6%.
Revenues are expected to be $3.31 billion, up 38.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.63% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Alcoa?
For Alcoa, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Alcoa will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Alcoa would post earnings of $1.85 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.05, delivering a surprise of +10.81%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Alcoa doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
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Alcoa (AA): Free Stock Analysis Report
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2022-01-12 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Corp Shares Close in on 52-Week High - Market Mover
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Alcoa Corp (AA) shares closed today at 1.1% below its 52 week high of $62.89, giving the company a market cap of $11B. The stock is currently up 4.4% year-to-date, up 153.8% over the past 12 months, and up 95.0% over the past five years. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.4%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%.
Trading Activity
Trading volume this week was 35.7% lower than the 20-day average.
Beta, a measure of the stock’s volatility relative to the overall market stands at 1.7.
Technical Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the stock was above 70, indicating it may be overbought.
MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, indicates a downward trend.
The stock closed above its Bollinger band, indicating it may be overbought.
Market Comparative Performance
The company's share price is the same as the S&P 500 Index , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company's share price is the same as the Dow Jones Industrial Average , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company share price is the same as the performance of its peers in the Materials industry sector , beats it on a 1-year basis, and beats it on a 5 year basis
Per Group Comparative Performance
The company's stock price performance year-to-date lags the peer average by -17.6%
The company's stock price performance over the past 12 months beats the peer average by 778.7%
The company's price-to-earnings ratio, which relates a company's share price to its earnings per share, is -188.3% higher than the average peer.
This story was produced by the Kwhen Automated News Generator. For more articles like this, please visit us at finance.kwhen.com. Write to editors@kwhen.com. © 2020 Kwhen Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2022-01-11 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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GRAPHIC-Power fuels aluminium's price surge to record in Europe
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By Pratima Desai
LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Costs of aluminium for European consumers are scaling record highs due to soaring energy costs and production cuts, which have exacerbated deficits of the metal used in the power, construction and packaging industries.
Consumers buying aluminium on the physical market usually pay the benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange -- around $2,950 a tonne on Tuesday -- plus a physical market premium that typically covers transport costs and taxes.
But shortages mean traders and producers with inventory are able to command a significantly larger premium, which in Europe has shot up nearly 30% to a record $428.75 a tonne since the start of 2022.
"With around 650,000 tonnes of capacity cut so far in Europe, we believe that another 900,000 tonnes of output is at risk of closing down fully or partially," said Michael Widmer, analyst at BoA Securities.
Widmer expects aluminium demand in Western Europe at 8.5 million tonnes this year and a deficit of five million tonnes. He expects global consumption at 72 million tonnes and a deficit of 254,000 tonnes.
Milder than usual wind speeds in Europe last year and windmills across the bloc generating less electricity worsened a crunch that sent power prices to record highs as utilities had to buy more coal and scarce, costly, natural gas.
Before the power crisis, energy accounted for up to 40% of aluminium smelting costs. Depending on hedges and sources of power that figure has risen to 50% or more for many producers.
Production cuts in Europe include those at Alcoa's AA.N San Ciprian facility in Spain, American Industrial Partners' Dunkirk smelter in France and Norsk Hydro's NHY.OL majority-owned aluminium plant in Slovakia.
"As we enter 2022, European producers are still plagued by elevated power costs and there seems to be no sign of a quick solution to the issue," said ING analyst Wenyu Yao
Yao expects the global aluminium market to see a deficit around 1.5 million tonnes this year.
"Stocks should have started to build in the (top producer) China onshore market following seasonal patterns," Yao said. "But instead, these have declined to 766,000 tonnes as of Monday, far below the five-year average."
Shortages of aluminium since early last year have seen draws on stocks MALSTX-TOTAL, which in LME warehouses have more than halved since the middle of March last year.
Aluminium market balanceshttps://tmsnrt.rs/3zEEkA0
Aluminium uses breakdownhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3Gp3Ewc
Aluminium costs for consumershttps://tmsnrt.rs/3FfsNbq
LME aluminium stockshttps://tmsnrt.rs/3zUfnAM
(Reporting by Pratima Desai; editing by Jason Neely)
((pratima.desai@thomsonreuters.com; +44 207 513 5681;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2022-01-06 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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COLUMN-Europe's power crunch sparks aluminium smelter meltdown: Andy Home
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By Andy Home
LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - It's turning into a winter of discontent for Europe's aluminium smelters as they struggle to cope with rocketing power prices across the region.
Four operators have announced curtailments totalling over half a million tonnes of annual production capacity, with others flexing output to mitigate power-load price spikes.
European aluminium consumers are already paying the price. Physical premiums have surged, the CME's duty-paid spot contract EDPc1 jumping from $290 per tonne at the start of December to a current $423.
That's over and above the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price CMAL3, which has also opened 2022 with a bang, hitting a two-month high of $2,938.50 per tonne on Wednesday.
Aluminium was the second best performer among the core LME industrial metals last year as the market priced in power-related curtailments in China.
The market's power problems have now spread to Europe.
POWERING DOWN
Smelting aluminium is an energy-intensive process, power typically representing at least 30% of total production costs, albeit with significant variability depending on source, supplier structure and local energy market.
European power prices have hit multiple record highs over recent months and the regional energy crunch is now morphing into an aluminium smelter crisis.
"Exorbitant energy prices" were cited by U.S producer Alcoa AA.N as the reason for a two-year curtailment of its 228,000-tonne per year San Ciprian smelter in Spain.
The plant will be out of action by the end of this month, returning in January 2024 with renewable power contracts.
Another casualty is the KAP smelter in Montenegro, which began powering down its 120,000 tonnes of annual capacity in the middle of December.
The plant's owner Uniprom was facing a jump in its power bill from 45 euros ($50.89) to 120 euros per megawatt hour at the start of 2022.
The "exceptional situation on the energy and gas markets" is why Romanian producer Alro is reducing output from five to two potlines at its Slatina smelter, it said.
The 265,000-tonne-per-year plant will be operating at around one-third capacity until further notice.
Norway's Hydro NHY.OL has also doubled down on the amount of capacity it is idling at its Slovalco smelter in Slovakia, citing "very high energy prices (which) show no sign of improvement in the short term".
Production will be reduced to 60% of the plant's annual capacity of 175,000 tonnes per year.
All four operations will maintain remelt and cast house operations, but the combined annualised hit on primary metal production will be around 550,000 tonnes.
Other European smelters are navigating the power price crunch by tweaking amperage and run-rates, meaning there is considerable creep to any production loss estimate.
PREMIUM SPLIT
Europe is already a net importer of primary aluminium, with the regional supply deficit set to widen as the list of smelter casualties lengthens. The sharp jump in physical premiums attests to that changing dynamic.
The U.S. Midwest physical premium has leapt higher in sympathy, the CME spot contract AUPc1 up from $550 per tonne at the start of December to a current $666.
The United States is also a net importer of primary aluminium and is now facing increased competition from Europe for spare metal.
And both are in competition with China, which is importing significant volumes after a run of power-related curtailments across its huge smelter network.
China's imports of primary aluminium totalled 1.5 million tonnes in the first 11 months of 2021, up 60% year-on-year.
The world's largest aluminium producer turned net importer in 2020 and it seems set to stay that way.
That, ironically, has benefitted Japanese buyers, who have just negotiated a 20% reduction to $177 per tonne in the premium for first-quarter deliveries.
One of the factors working in their favour has been the relocation of accessible stock to Asia to feed China's new-found hunger for imports.
LME warehouses held 926,800 tonnes of registered inventory as of Tuesday, with just 34,675 tonnes located in Europe and 19,425 tonnes in the United States. The balance 94% is in Asia.
Asian locations also accounted for 79% of the 449,000 tonnes of aluminium sitting in the LME's off-warrant shadows at the end of October.
That regional availability is cushioning Japanese buyers but exacerbating supply issues outside of Asia.
Europe's smelter problems are accentuating the growing regional divergence in global premiums.
ALUMINIUM PARADOX - EUROPEAN VERSION
The European Union has historically shielded its aluminium smelter sector through import tariffs, much to the annoyance of regional consumers.
The bloc is now also committed to what it terms "open strategic autonomy" in its green industrial plan, particularly when it comes to securing metals critical to the energy transition.
Those ambitions are now at risk, not just in aluminium but in other industrial metal sectors such as zinc.
The Achilles heel in the supply chain is the high energy intensity of the smelting process, exposing producers to the sort of power crunch now roiling Europe.
Power supply stresses will only become more acute as the continent tries to pivot away from coal in line with its carbon commitments.
China started grappling with the same metals-power conundrum last year.
Although China's power problems are in part down to natural causes - last year's drought in hydro-rich Yunnan province - they are also a consequence of energy efficiency goals aligned with a pledge to hit peak coal generation by 2025.
Power-hungry aluminium smelters have been easy targets for regional governments looking to improve their energy usage and efficiency targets.
China's production of primary aluminium has stalled as production lines have been closed and new projects have been deferred.
Such is the aluminium paradox.
It's a metal that is core to the energy transition, but can only be produced in virgin form using very large amounts of energy, which is increasingly at a premium due to decarbonisation.
The paradox has just extended from China to Europe.
($1 = 0.8843 euros)
CME aluminium premium contractshttps://tmsnrt.rs/3eXTS8w
(Editing by Jan Harvey)
((andy.home@thomsonreuters.com, 44-207-542-4412 and on Twitter https://twitter.com/AndyHomeMetals))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2022-01-06 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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METALS-Shanghai aluminium scales over 2-month peak on supply worries
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(Adds comment, updates prices)
By Eileen Soreng
Jan 6 (Reuters) - Shanghai aluminium prices hit a more than two-month high on Thursday, driven by higher power prices and rising supply concerns.
The most-traded February aluminium contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 2% higher at 20,685 yuan a tonne. Prices earlier hit the highest level since Oct. 27 of 20,835 yuan.
Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.5% at $2,906.5 a tonne by 0710 GMT, but it was trading closer to a more than two-month high touched on Wednesday.
Aluminium is seeing a follow-through move from higher coal prices, a Singapore-based trader said, adding, prices are resilient due to fundamental support from supply deficit and higher energy prices.
Chinese thermal coal futures was down 0.6% at 697.2 yuan a tonne, after rising about 5.5% earlier this week on supply disruption fears following an export ban by Indonesia. Most aluminium production in China uses electricity generated by coal-fired power plants.
A surge in power and natural gas costs across Europe has also led to output reductions at smelters in the region.
LME inventories of aluminium was last at 926,800 tonnes, down more than 50% since March 2021 high of 1.96 mln tonnes.
FUNDAMENTALS
* LME copper fell 1% to $9,604 a tonne, nickel slipped 1.4% to $20,350, lead eased 0.2% to $2.284, zinc was 1.1% lower at $3,548 and tin was 0.3% lower at $39,180.
* Industrial metals came under pressure as the dollar firmed after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting signalled a sooner-than-expected interest rates hike. [USD/]
* ShFE copper fell 1% to 69,490 yuan a tonne, nickel slipped 2% to 149,930 yuan, lead fell 1.4% to 15,060 yuan and tin was up 0.1% at 295,350 yuan.
* Australian diversified miner South32 Ltd said it would spend about $70 million to restart the Alumar aluminium smelter in Brazil with its joint venture partner Alcoa Corp .
* For the top stories in metals and other news, click
[TOP/MTL] or [MET/L]
($1 = 6.3715 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Rashmi Aich) ((eileen.soreng@thomsonreuters.com; Within U.S. +1 646 223 8780, Outside U.S. +91 80 6749 6131; Reuters Messaging: eileen.soreng.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) (( For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: LME price overview
COMEX copper futures All metals news
[MTL] All commodities news
[C] Foreign exchange rates
SPEED GUIDES )) Keywords: GLOBAL METALS/ (UPDATE 1)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2022-01-05 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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South32, Alcoa to restart Alumar aluminium smelter in Brazil
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Jan 6 (Reuters) - Australian diversified miner South32 Ltd S32.AX said on Thursday it would spend about $70 million to restart the Alumar aluminium smelter in Brazil with its joint venture partner Alcoa Corp AA.N.
The smelter, which has been on care and maintenance since 2015, is a part of South32's Brazil Alumina operations, which also include a share in the country's largest bauxite mine and a refinery.
South32 said its 40% share of Alumar will be entirely powered by renewable energy as it is restarted over 2022 and 2023.
"We see strong long-term market fundamentals for aluminium. By investing along our existing alumina-aluminium value chain, we are... meaningfully increasing our share of metal produced utilising green energy," Chief Executive Officer Graham Kerr said in a statement.
First production from the smelter is expected in the June quarter. South32 anticipates output of 5,000 tonnes this year and 140,000 tonnes next year from its share of the operation.
(Reporting by Shashwat Awasthi; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
((Shashwat.Awasthi@tr.com))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2022-01-05 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Japan Q1 aluminium premium falls 20% to $177/T -sources
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By Yuka Obayashi
TOKYO, Jan 5 (Reuters) - The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for January to March was set at $177 per tonne, down 20% from the previous quarter, as local spot premiums and overseas prices eased, six sources involved in pricing talks said on Wednesday.
That is down from the $220 per tonne paid in October-December and marks a first quarterly drop in six. It is also lower than the initial offers of $193-$195 per tonne made by producers.
Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the light metal and the premiums PREM-ALUM-JP for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price CMAL0 set the benchmark for the region.
The premiums rose to $130-$220 a tonne in 2021 from $79-$88 in 2020 as global demand picked up from a pandemic-induced slump and container shortages caused shipping delays and freight rate hikes, while output in top producer China slowed due to power disruptions and the government's environment policy.
"But the increase last year was overdone," a source at a Japanese trading company said.
"The drop for this quarter reflected lower spot premiums in Japan and elsewhere in Asia which tracked falls in the U.S. and European markets and were caused by discounts made by international traders to trim their inventories at the end of their financial year," he said.
A slow recovery in automobile output also weighed on the demand outlook, another source at a Japanese end-user said.
Japanese automakers are struggling with persistent parts and chip shortages, including Toyota Motor 7203.T, which said it would suspend production at five domestic factories in January.
However, metal prices and overseas premiums are on the rise again after two smelters cut production late last month due to high power prices, fuelling concerns about potential shortages.
Alcoa AA.N halted production at its San Ciprian operation in Spain for two years, while Norsk Hydro's NHY.OL majority-owned aluminium plant in Slovakia will cut output to around 60% of capacity.
"With China's production unlikely to recover from power disruptions and not until the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, the aluminium market is expected to become tighter," a third source at a producer said.
The sources declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks.
Marubeni, a major Japanese aluminium trader, has predicted Japanese premiums will stay in a range of $140 to $250 a tonne this year.
(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi Editing by Andrew Heavens and Mark Potter)
((Yuka.Obayashi@thomsonreuters.com; +813-4520-1265;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
|
2022-01-05 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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METALS-Copper prices slip as U.S. Fed's hawkish signal lifts dollar
|
Jan 6 (Reuters) - Copper prices fell on Thursday as the
dollar firmed after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's
meeting signalled that the central bank may raise interest rates
sooner than expected.
While a firmer U.S. dollar makes greenback-priced metals
more expensive to holders of other currencies, an interest rate
hike could trim liquidity in financial markets and slow recovery
in the world's biggest economy.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was
down 0.5% at $9,648.5 a tonne, as of 0300 GMT. The most-traded
February copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange
slipped 0.7% to 69,730 yuan ($10,944.05) a tonne.
A "very tight" job market and unabated inflation might
require the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than expected,
policymakers said in the December meeting, fuelling expectations
of a rate hike in March. [nL1N2TL203] [nL1N2TL203]
Fed's hawkish signal helped buoy the dollar index <=USD>
with the greenback hovering near a five-year high to the yen.
[USD/]
Among other industrial metals, LME aluminium eased
0.3% to $2,912.5 a tonne, nickel fell 0.9% to $20,465 a
tonne, lead was down 0.3% at $2,280.5 a tonne, zinc
dipped 0.5% to $3,571.5 a tonne and tin edged up
0.2% to $39,360 a tonne.
FUNDAMENTALS
* ShFE aluminium rose 2.2% to 20,735 yuan a tonne,
nickel slipped 1.7% to 150,900 yuan, zinc was
up 0.4% at 24,470 yuan and lead fell 1% to 15,120 yuan.
Tin edged 0.2% higher to 295,880 yuan a tonne.
* Indonesian authorities postponed a meeting with coal
mining companies on Wednesday, as scores of ships moored off the
coast remained in limbo as they waited to see whether the
government would lift a ban on coal exports. [nL1N2TL0DL]
* Australian diversified miner South32 Ltd said on
Thursday it would spend about $70 million to restart the Alumar
aluminium smelter in Brazil with its joint venture partner Alcoa
Corp .
* For the top stories in metals and other news, click
[TOP/MTL] or [MET/L]
MARKETS NEWS
* Asian shares fell on Thursday, extending a global slump
after Federal Reserve meeting minutes pointed to a
faster-than-expected rise in U.S. interest rates due to concerns
about persistent inflation. [MKTS/GLOB]
DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0700 Germany Industrial Orders MM Nov
0930 UK Reserve Assets Total Dec
1300 Germany CPI Prelim YY Dec
1300 Germany HICP Prelim YY Dec
1330 US International Trade Nov
1330 US Initial Jobless Clm Weekly
1500 US Factory Orders MM Nov
1500 US ISM Non-Mfg PMI Dec
($1 = 6.3715 Chinese yuan)
(Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry
Jacob-Phillips)
((eileen.soreng@thomsonreuters.com; Within U.S. +1 646 223
8780, Outside U.S. +91 80 6749 6131; Reuters Messaging:
eileen.soreng.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
(( For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
LME price overview COMEX copper futures <0#HG:>
All metals news [MTL] All commodities news [C]
Foreign exchange rates SPEED GUIDES ))
Keywords: GLOBAL METALS/
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
|
2022-01-04 00:00:00+00:00
|
AA
|
Noteworthy Tuesday Option Activity: CVX, ISEE, AA
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Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Chevron Corporation (Symbol: CVX), where a total of 50,935 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 5.1 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 51.5% of CVX's average daily trading volume over the past month of 9.9 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $120 strike call option expiring January 21, 2022, with 4,788 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 478,800 underlying shares of CVX. Below is a chart showing CVX's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $120 strike highlighted in orange:
IVERIC bio Inc (Symbol: ISEE) options are showing a volume of 6,647 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 664,700 underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 51.2% of ISEE's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 1.3 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $22.50 strike call option expiring June 17, 2022, with 5,032 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 503,200 underlying shares of ISEE. Below is a chart showing ISEE's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $22.50 strike highlighted in orange:
And Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) saw options trading volume of 44,334 contracts, representing approximately 4.4 million underlying shares or approximately 51% of AA's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 8.7 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $40 strike put option expiring January 21, 2022, with 16,775 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.7 million underlying shares of AA. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $40 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for CVX options, ISEE options, or AA options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Today's Most Active Call & Put Options of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-30 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa signs renewable energy deals for Spanish plant
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MADRID, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Alcoa AA.N has lined up long-term energy contracts with two renewables companies to supply an aluminium plant in northwestern Spain that it has mothballed for two years amid soaring power prices.
When the San Ciprian plant in the northwestern Galicia region reopens in 2024, Madrid-based Capital Energy will provide 876 gigawatt hours per year of renewable energy for 10 years at a stable tariff, Capital said on Thursday.
That equates to around a quarter of the plant's total requirements, it added.
Neither company disclosed the rates agreed in the contract.
Alcoa also signed a separate 10-year agreement with Galician power producer Greenalia GRN.MC on Monday for up to 2,297 gigawatt hours per year.
The U.S. metals producer agreed with workers to halt primary aluminium production at San Ciprian on Tuesday and said it would use the downtime to reinvest in the plant and renegotiate its energy contracts.
It has complained for years that steep energy prices in Spain have made the plant uncompetitive, a situation that has worsened rapidly over the past six months as European power prices soared to record highs.
(Reporting by Nathan Allen Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
((n.allen@thomsonreuters.com; +34 617 792 131;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-30 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Norway's Hydro to cut Slovakia aluminium output due to power cost
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Adds quote, detail, background
OSLO, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Norsk Hydro's NHY.OL majority-owned aluminium plant in Slovakia will cut its output to around 60% of capacity in response to high electricity costs, the Norwegian company said on Thursday.
A surge in power and natural gas costs across Europe this year has led to output reductions at smelters, chemical plants and other affected industries.
The Slovalco plant, 55.3% owned by Hydro, which had already announced a capacity cut to 80% in 2019, said the new cut to 60% corresponds to an annual reduction of 35,000 tonnes of aluminium. It did not say when it would take effect.
"Slovalco will continue to monitor the situation closely in the coming weeks and months," Hydro said in a statement.
In Norway, Hydro, which has not announced any other cuts, is sheltered from price volatility by the company's own hydroelectric capacity and long-term renewable supply details.
As energy ranks among the biggest costs for energy-intensive industries, metal producers and other sectors have asked the European Union for help, saying the record prices have hit their competitiveness and could prompt European companies to relocate.
On Wednesday, U.S. aluminium maker Alcoa Corp AA.N announced a deal with workers to end primary aluminium production at its San Ciprian facility in Spain for two years, citing high energy costs.
(Reporting by Terje Solsvik; editing by Jason Neely and Barbara Lewis)
((terje.solsvik@thomsonreuters.com; +47 918 666 70))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-30 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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METALS-Copper range-bound ahead of New Year holiday
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Updates prices, adds comment
Dec 30 (Reuters) - Copper traded in a narrow range on Thursday as 2021 draws to a close, but the metal often seen as a gauge of global economic health remained on track for its third consecutive yearly gain.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 was down 0.3% at $9,655.50 a tonne by 0704 GMT, after scaling a one-month high in the previous session.
The LME, which remains open on Friday for the year's last trading day, will be closed on Monday for the New Year break.
The most-traded February copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SCFcv1 ended daytime trading 0.3% lower at 70,010 yuan ($10,995.76) a tonne.
LME copper hit an all-time high of $10,747.50 a tonne in May as top consumer China staged an economic rebound and exchange inventories fell to multi-year lows.
While it has fallen around 10% since then, some analysts said the metal may remain supported in 2022.
"Copper demand is expected to enter its second year of expansion, especially after the recently-concluded COP26 demonstrated an increasing willingness by governments to prioritise clean energy," said Howie Lee, economist at OCBC in Singapore.
"Unresolved supply chain bottlenecks, which may persist till the second half of 2022, are also expected to keep prices supported," he said.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Peru's government is still far from reaching a deal that would ensure the restart of MMG Ltd's 1208.HK huge Las Bambas copper mine, a community advisor and a government source said on Wednesday, a day before a crucial meeting with local communities whose road blockade derailed the mining company's operations.
* Shanghai aluminium SAFcv1 rose as much as 3.6% to 20,585 yuan a tonne, its highest since Oct. 27, propped up by concerns over supply, while LME aluminium CMAL3 advanced 0.5% to $2,825 a tonne, after a two-day decline.
* Alcoa Corp AA.N reached a deal with workers to end primary aluminium production at its San Ciprian facility in Spain for two years, as soaring European energy prices pressure heavy electricity users.
* LME zinc CMZN3 gained 0.1% to $3,515 a tonne, while Shanghai zinc SZNcv1 advanced 0.9% to 24,165 yuan a tonne.
* LME lead CMPB3 slipped 0.3% to $2,279.50 a tonne and Shanghai lead SPBcv1 shed 0.5% to 15,325 yuan a tonne.
* LME nickel CMNI3 rose 0.2% to $20,425 a tonne and Shanghai nickel SNIcv1 jumped 1.5% to 150,450 yuan a tonne.
* LME tin CMSN3 gained 0.9% to $39,495 a tonne and Shanghai tin SSNcv1 climbed 1.6% to 294,370 yuan a tonne.
($1 = 6.3670 yuan)
(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz in Manila; Editing by Devika Syamnath)
((enrico.delacruz@tr.com))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-30 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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3 Metal Stocks That Are Heating Up
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InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
Inflation took the world by storm this year. Supply bottlenecks, labor shortages and helicopter money from the government delivered the highest consumer price index (CPI) reading in nearly 40 years. November’s red-hot 6.8% print for the CPI is officially the most significant year-over-year jump in prices since 1982. Thus far, Wall Street is taking the sharp rise in stride. While some areas (such as growth stocks) are suffering from the specter of higher interest rates, others, like metal stocks, are loving it.
Generally, the basic material and energy sectors outperform during periods of higher inflation. So if you think the recent muscle-flexing in these areas is a sign of things to come, then the following companies should perform well.
Stock Market Crash Coming? 7 Wall Street Pros Make Their Predictions
I scanned all the metal stocks in my watchlist, and these metal stocks were the three boasting the best trends.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA)
Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX)
Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM)
Metal Stocks: Alcoa (AA)
Source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade
After basing for three months, Alcoa shares finally took flight this month to continue their long-term uptrend. With the recent gains, AA stock is now up almost 160% on the year. Volume confirmed the recent breakout with a groundswell in accumulation days. In addition, the 20-day moving average is ramping nicely to confirm the increased momentum.
Whether it’s renewed buying in response to the inflation uptick or merely a continuation of the market’s post-pandemic lovefest for economically sensitive securities doesn’t matter. Either way, Alcoa is in favor, and the chart points to higher prices.
I prefer high-probability spreads over direction due to the stock’s choppy nature.
The Trade: Sell the Feb $47/$42 bull put spread for 56 cents or better.
Consider it a bet that AA will be above $47 at expiration.
Freeport McMoran (FCX)
Source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade
Freeport-McMoran shares got caught up in the metal stocks bonanza. Like Alcoa, it was previously consolidating for multiple months. That makes the recent breakout all the more tempting.
Historically, FCX follows in the footsteps of copper prices. On Monday, copper futures broke above the 50-day moving average and could be starting a new advance. If so, it will bode well for Freeport.
Implied volatility for FCX options has sunk to the 5th percentile of its one-year range. This means call premiums are now cheap. As a result, I like bull call spreads.
The Trade: Buy the Feb $42/$45 bull call spread for $1.20 or better.
7 Top Stocks to Buy If You're Betting on a Santa Rally
The max loss is $1.20, and the max gain is $1.80. To capture the entire reward requires FCX to sit above $45 by expiration.
Metal Stocks: Newmont Mining (NEM)
Source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade
Gold prices haven’t been nearly as responsive to the high inflation readings as gold bugs would have liked. As a result, many gold mining companies have seen their share prices struggle this year. That said, Newmont Mining is the best looking of the bunch, so if you think equities linked to precious metals will experience a reversal of fortune, then NEM stock is the best way to play it.
The price trend just completed a bottoming pattern by breaking above resistance near $59. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are curling higher to reflect the newfound strength. The low price tag and modest implied volatility make building a naked put trade easy.
The Trade: Sell the Feb $55 put for 70 cents or better.
By selling the put, you obligate yourself to buy 100 shares of stock at $55. But, if NEM stock stays above $55, then the option will expire worthless, and you’ll pocket the premium.
On the date of publication, Tyler Craig did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
For a free trial to the best trading community on the planet and Tyler’s current home, click here!
The post 3 Metal Stocks That Are Heating Up appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-29 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa to halt primary aluminium production in Spain for two years
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MADRID, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Alcoa Corp AA.N reached a deal with workers to end primary aluminium production at its San Ciprian facility in Spain for two years, the Industry Ministry said on Wednesday, as soaring European energy prices pressure heavy electricity users.
Under the programme, supported by some 70% of workers, the U.S. metals producer will stop production of aluminium by electrolysis for two years, invest $103 million in the plant and will seek to renegotiate long-term energy supply contracts.
The company agreed to maintain salaries during the production halt and said it would not lay off any workers for the next four years. It will smelt scrap aluminium to guarantee supplies to some customers.
Industry Minister Reyes Maroto said in a statement the government supported the deal because it would avoid job losses and guarantee the plant receives the investment it needs to remain a going concern.
Alcoa has long sought to shut down the San Ciprian smelter in Spain's northwestern Galicia region, which has struggled to remain competitive in the face of high energy costs and low aluminium prices, leading to several years of losses.
The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the agreement.
It attempted to lay off some 500 workers last year but was forced to abandon the plan after a Spanish court declared it was "null and void".
Union representative Jose Antonio Zan said on Wednesday the proposal was the least bad option available but that a production halt would turn the plant into a silent tomb.
"Politicians need to explain how in the midst of a raw-materials crisis, Spain can stop producing such a vital material," he said shortly after the decision was announced.
(Reporting by Nathan Allen; editing by Barbara Lewis)
((n.allen@thomsonreuters.com; +34 617 792 131;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-29 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa To Curtail Aluminum Smelter In Spain For Two Years Due To High Energy Prices
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(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corp (AA) said it reached an agreement with the workers' representatives to curtail aluminum smelter at its San Ciprián aluminum plant in Spain for two years, due to increase in European energy prices. Curtailment activities will begin on January 1, 2022, with the goal of completion before the end of January 2022. The company has committed that no collective dismissal process will be considered for the San Ciprián smelter until December 31, 2025 at the earliest.
Alcoa expects to record restructuring-related charges in the fourth quarter 2021 of approximately $60 million or $0.32 per share, with approximately half of the costs to be paid in each of 2022 and 2023.
The agreement calls for a two-year curtailment of the smelter's 228,000 metric tons of annual capacity, and a commitment by the company to begin the restart of the smelter in January 2024.
During the curtailment period, Alcoa will seek to secure as soon as possible long-term power purchase agreements, beginning from 2024. The company has also committed $68 million for capital investments and $35 million for restart costs. As part of the agreement, workers will immediately cease a strike action that has affected both the aluminum smelter and the alumina refinery.
In addition, the company has committed to provide employees full wages and benefits during the two-year curtailment period, to extend the contracts of contractor companies through 2024, and to provide a new collective bargaining agreement that includes pay increases extending to the end of 2025.
As a result of the curtailment and the agreement, Alcoa expects the San Ciprián aluminum plant to record an annual net loss before taxes of approximately $20 million to $25 million in 2022. In 2021, the aluminum plant is projected to record a net loss before taxes of approximately $65 million, with most of the impact in the fourth quarter based on increased power prices. The month to date December 2021 average spot market power price in Spain is $276 per megawatt hour.
During the curtailment, the casthouse will continue to operate, and the San Ciprián alumina refinery will continue to operate normally, Alcoa said in a statement.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-29 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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METALS-Copper slips in range-bound trade, aluminium shines on supply worries
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Dec 30 (Reuters) - Copper prices edged down in range-bound Asian trading on Thursday as 2021 draws to a close, but persisting concerns over supply propelled Shanghai aluminium to a two-month high.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 was down 0.1% at $9,667 a tonne by 0333 GMT, after touching a one-month high in the previous session.
The most-traded February copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SCFcv1 ended morning trade 0.4% lower at 69,970 yuan ($10,987.75) a tonne.
Shanghai aluminium SAFcv1 rose as much as 3.6% to 20,585 yuan a tonne, its highest since Oct. 27, while LME aluminium CMAL3 advanced 0.6% to $2,828.50 a tonne, after a two-day decline.
FUNDAMENTALS
* China aims to cut energy consumption of steel by 2%, and to lower carbon emissions in the aluminium sector by 5% by 2025, the country's industry ministry said in a raw materials development plan on Wednesday.
* Alcoa Corp AA.N reached a deal with workers to end primary aluminium production at its San Ciprian facility in Spain for two years, the Industry Ministry said on Wednesday, as soaring European energy prices pressure heavy electricity users.
* Chilean miner Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L has agreed to supply copper concentrate to some Chinese smelters at treatment and refining charges of $65 a tonne and 6.5 cents per lb next year, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.
* Peru's government is still far from reaching a deal that would ensure the restart of MMG Ltd's 1208.HK huge Las Bambas copper mine, a community advisor and a government source said on Wednesday, a day before a crucial meeting with local communities whose road blockade derailed the mining company's operations.
* For the top stories in metals and other news, click TOP/MTL or MET/L MARKETS NEWS
* Asian share markets got off to a listless start on Thursday as the spread of Omicron clouded what is the last trading day of the year for many exchanges around the globe, while oil was close to finishing 2021 with gains of more than 50%. MKTS/GLOB
DATA/EVENTS
1330 US Initial Jobless Clm Weekly
PRICES
Three month LME copper CMCU3
Most active ShFE copper SCFcv1
Three month LME aluminium CMAL3
Most active ShFE aluminium SAFcv1
Three month LME zinc CMZN3
Most active ShFE zinc SZNcv1
Three month LME lead CMPB3
Most active ShFE lead SPBcv1
Three month LME nickel CMNI3
Most active ShFE nickel SNIcv1
Three month LME tin CMSN3 Most active ShFE tin SSNcv1
ARBS
LMESHFCUc3
LMESHFALc3
LMESHFZNc3
LMESHFPBc3
LMESHFNIc3
($1 = 6.3680 yuan)
(Reporting by Enrico Dela Cruz in Manila; Editing by Devika Syamnath)
((enrico.delacruz@tr.com))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-27 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Corp Shares Close in on 52-Week High - Market Mover
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Alcoa Corp (AA) shares closed today at 1.3% below its 52 week high of $60.59, giving the company a market cap of $11B. The stock is currently up 158.1% year-to-date, up 170.9% over the past 12 months, and up 100.2% over the past five years. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%, and the S&P 500 rose 2.3%.
Trading Activity
Trading volume this week was 23.1% lower than the 20-day average.
Beta, a measure of the stock’s volatility relative to the overall market stands at 1.7.
Technical Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the stock was above 70, indicating it may be overbought.
MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, indicates an upward trend.
The stock closed below its Bollinger band, indicating it may be oversold.
Market Comparative Performance
The company's share price is the same as the S&P 500 Index , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company's share price is the same as the Dow Jones Industrial Average , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company share price is the same as the performance of its peers in the Materials industry sector , beats it on a 1-year basis, and beats it on a 5 year basis
Per Group Comparative Performance
The company's stock price performance year-to-date beats the peer average by 657.7%
The company's stock price performance over the past 12 months beats the peer average by 649.2%
The company's price-to-earnings ratio, which relates a company's share price to its earnings per share, is -187.6% higher than the average peer.
This story was produced by the Kwhen Automated News Generator. For more articles like this, please visit us at finance.kwhen.com. Write to editors@kwhen.com. © 2020 Kwhen Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-24 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Corp Shares Close in on 52-Week High - Market Mover
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Alcoa Corp (AA) shares closed today at 2.0% below its 52 week high of $60.55, giving the company a market cap of $11B. The stock is currently up 157.9% year-to-date, up 175.1% over the past 12 months, and up 99.8% over the past five years. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
Trading Activity
Trading volume this week was 9.8% higher than the 20-day average.
Beta, a measure of the stock’s volatility relative to the overall market stands at 1.7.
Technical Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the stock was above 70, indicating it may be overbought.
MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, indicates an upward trend.
The stock closed below its Bollinger band, indicating it may be oversold.
Market Comparative Performance
The company's share price is the same as the S&P 500 Index , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company's share price is the same as the Dow Jones Industrial Average , beats it on a 1-year basis, and beats it on a 5-year basis
The company share price is the same as the performance of its peers in the Materials industry sector , beats it on a 1-year basis, and beats it on a 5 year basis
Per Group Comparative Performance
The company's stock price performance year-to-date beats the peer average by 722.7%
The company's stock price performance over the past 12 months beats the peer average by 681.4%
The company's price-to-earnings ratio, which relates a company's share price to its earnings per share, is -188.6% higher than the average peer.
This story was produced by the Kwhen Automated News Generator. For more articles like this, please visit us at finance.kwhen.com. Write to editors@kwhen.com. © 2020 Kwhen Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-23 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Corp Shares Climb 3.3% Past Previous 52-Week High - Market Mover
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Alcoa Corp (AA) shares closed 3.3% higher than its previous 52 week high, giving the company a market cap of $10B. The stock is currently up 146.9% year-to-date, up 157.4% over the past 12 months, and up 87.0% over the past five years. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.3%.
Trading Activity
Trading volume this week was 12.0% higher than the 20-day average.
Beta, a measure of the stock’s volatility relative to the overall market stands at 1.7.
Technical Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the stock was above 70, indicating it may be overbought.
MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, indicates an upward trend.
The stock closed below its Bollinger band, indicating it may be oversold.
Market Comparative Performance
The company's share price is the same as the S&P 500 Index , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company's share price is the same as the Dow Jones Industrial Average , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company share price is the same as the performance of its peers in the Materials industry sector , beats it on a 1-year basis, and beats it on a 5 year basis
Per Group Comparative Performance
The company's stock price performance year-to-date beats the peer average by 755.9%
The company's stock price performance over the past 12 months beats the peer average by 819.3%
The company's price-to-earnings ratio, which relates a company's share price to its earnings per share, is -186.7% higher than the average peer.
This story was produced by the Kwhen Automated News Generator. For more articles like this, please visit us at finance.kwhen.com. Write to editors@kwhen.com. © 2020 Kwhen Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-21 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Corp Shares Close in on 52-Week High - Market Mover
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Alcoa Corp (AA) shares closed today at 1.1% below its 52 week high of $57.44, giving the company a market cap of $9B. The stock is currently up 130.9% year-to-date, up 141.8% over the past 12 months, and up 76.5% over the past five years. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.0%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.1%.
Trading Activity
Trading volume this week was 8.0% lower than the 20-day average.
Beta, a measure of the stock’s volatility relative to the overall market stands at 1.7.
Technical Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the stock was above 70, indicating it may be overbought.
MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, indicates an upward trend.
The stock closed below its Bollinger band, indicating it may be oversold.
Market Comparative Performance
The company's share price is the same as the S&P 500 Index , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company's share price is the same as the Dow Jones Industrial Average , beats it on a 1-year basis, and lags it on a 5-year basis
The company share price is the same as the performance of its peers in the Materials industry sector , beats it on a 1-year basis, and beats it on a 5 year basis
Per Group Comparative Performance
The company's stock price performance year-to-date beats the peer average by 926.5%
The company's stock price performance over the past 12 months beats the peer average by 1079.2%
The company's price-to-earnings ratio, which relates a company's share price to its earnings per share, is -184.9% higher than the average peer.
This story was produced by the Kwhen Automated News Generator. For more articles like this, please visit us at finance.kwhen.com. Write to editors@kwhen.com. © 2020 Kwhen Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-21 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Noteworthy Tuesday Option Activity: IGT, AA, CVGW
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Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in International Game Technology PLC (Symbol: IGT), where a total volume of 15,563 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 1.6 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 79.1% of IGT's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 2.0 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $28 strike call option expiring February 18, 2022, with 5,031 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 503,100 underlying shares of IGT. Below is a chart showing IGT's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $28 strike highlighted in orange:
Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) saw options trading volume of 67,914 contracts, representing approximately 6.8 million underlying shares or approximately 74.4% of AA's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 9.1 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $58 strike call option expiring January 07, 2022, with 10,687 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.1 million underlying shares of AA. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $58 strike highlighted in orange:
And Calavo Growers, Inc. (Symbol: CVGW) saw options trading volume of 1,239 contracts, representing approximately 123,900 underlying shares or approximately 72.2% of CVGW's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 171,615 shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $45 strike call option expiring January 21, 2022, with 902 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 90,200 underlying shares of CVGW. Below is a chart showing CVGW's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $45 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for IGT options, AA options, or CVGW options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Today's Most Active Call & Put Options of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-17 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Unusual Options Activity in Alcoa (AA), Alibaba (BABA), and Cerner (CERN)
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Unusual Options Activity in Alcoa Corporation (AA)
Today, December 17, 2021, among the underlying components of the NYSE, we saw unusual or noteworthy options trading volume and activity in Alcoa Corporation, which opened at $52.26.
There were 1,000 contracts traded on the $48 strike put option contract, dated for February 18th, 2022, sold to open at the bid.
The volume of this order was higher than the open interest already on the chain from this morning’s open, addressed in a section below.
Seen above are all of the noteworthy options in Alcoa Corporation from the Unusual Whales flow tool.
These orders come after our report last month, as well as additional reports from the Trefis Team reporting that Alcoa Corporation:
> “jumped 7.5% in just the last one week and is above $50, completely outperforming the S&P 500 which dropped 1% during the last one week. If you look at the change in stock over the last ten days, AA stock has increased 8.4%, again outperforming the market.”
Seen above is the February 18th, 2022 put option chain’s historical volume and OI taken from the Unusual Whales historical flow overview.
On the 14th, there were 327 contracts in circulation and as of today’s open, there were 328. The volume seen today at 1,001 is novel volume, and therefore these orders can be considered to have been bought or sold to open, as there were not enough contracts already in circulation to have closed.
To view more information about AA's daily flow breakdown, click here to visit unusualwhales.com.
Unusual Options Activity in Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
Again upon the NYSE, we saw significant and “beluga sized” options activity in Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA), which opened today at $119.49.
There were 18,440 contracts traded on the $10 strike put option, dated for January 21st, 2022, bought to open above the ask.
Be mindful, this chain’s bid-ask spread was $0.00 to $0.04 at the time these positions were opened, so it is difficult to ascertain the premise behind these positions being taken.
Seen above are all of the noteworthy options orders in Alibaba Group Holding Limited from the Unusual Whales flow tool.
These orders come after Reuters’ reports: “China's Alibaba pledges carbon neutrality by 2030.”
The charts above represent Alibaba Group Holding Limited’s option flow data with regards to the last 100 trades and of premiums greater than $30,000.
53.1% of the premium traded at these premium levels are in bullish bets, with 47.4% as ask-side orders, and 23.6% are in call premiums.
To view more information about BABA's flow breakdown, click here to visit unusualwhales.com.
Unusual Options Activity in Cerner Corporation (CERN)
Finally, and again in the NasdaqGS, we saw unusual or noteworthy options trading volume and activity today in Cerner Corporation (CERN), which opened at $22.39.
There were two trades sized at 4,000 contracts conducted on the $70 and $85 strike put option, dated for January 21st, 2021, sold to open at the bid and bought to open at the ask, respectively.
Additionally, there were two other trades sized at 3,500 contracts each traded upon the $100 strike call option, sold to open at the bid, and the $80 strike put option, bought to open at the ask, also for January 21st, 2021.
Be mindful! Cerner Corporation’s ex-dividend date is December 23rd, 2021.
Therefore, there may be a significant increase in call volume coming ahead of the ex-dividend date due to the fact that investors are looking to capture as much of the dividend as possible and are looking to exercise deep in the money call options.
Seen above are the noteworthy options orders in Cerner Corporation from the Unusual Whales flow.
Of note, one of the trades listed above was cancelled, and therefore struck through in the options flow.
Trades that are struck through have been cancelled for one reason or another. Trades can be modified or nullified for a variety of reasons, and per the SEC: “for the maintenance of a fair and orderly market.” Exchanges can erroneously send more trades than were actually placed, especially during times of high volume.
This is a normal occurrence.
To view more information about CERN's flow breakdown, click here to visit unusualwhales.com.
Witching Days
Questions regarding “witching days” have been popping up here and there, so we’d like to take the time to address what witching days are and how they might impact your trading today.
Witching days occur once a quarter, (typically) on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
Quadruple Witching
On quadruple witchings, all of the following expire simultaneously:
- stock options
- stock index options
- single stock futures
- and stock index futures
Triple witchings occur when three of the above expire simultaneously.
Double witchings are when two of the above expire simultaneously.
Witching Hour
Prior to the close on a witching day, there is an increase in volume in trading as traders are rolling their contracts to further out dates, closing positions outright, and opening new positions altogether.
Be mindful! There is a considerable increase in volatility up into witching days. To some, there are "arbitrage opportunities" by trading this volatility.
Risk of Exercise & Assignment
Prior to witchings, market makers and brokers alike will require shares to cover their positions and their clients' positions; therefore, brokers have the right (and responsibility) to exercise existing contracts to obtain those shares in order to keep the markets operational.
Please be careful holding contracts through witching days unless you are taking advantage of those "arbitrage" opportunities yourself!
For further information on the unusual options activity of AA, BABA, and CERN visit unusualwhales.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-17 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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What’s Behind The Recent Surge In Alcoa Stock?
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Alcoa stock (NYSE: AA) jumped 7.5% in just the last one week and is above $50, completely outperforming the S&P 500 which dropped 1% during the last one week. If you look at the change in stock over the last ten days, AA stock has increased 8.4%, again outperforming the market. The recent rise in the stock price of the aluminum giant was driven by the announcement of its inclusion in the S&P MidCap 400 Index. AA stock will replace Hill-Rom Holdings (HRC) in the index on 20th December. Also, a majority of analysts are bullish on the stock, with a large majority carrying a “strong buy” rating on AA stock. Aluminum is a critical metal for decarbonization and will likely continue to see increased demand compared to steel given its lightness (aluminum is about one-third the weight of steel) and easy recyclability. The push for electric vehicles will also drive demand for aluminum as EVs contain 30% more aluminum compared to internal combustion engine vehicles.
Now, is AA stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is an equal chance of a rise and fall in AA stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on AA Stock Chance of Rise.
Twenty-One Day: AA -2.8%, vs. S&P500 -0.8%; Underperformed market
(39% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 21 days)
AA stock decreased 2.8% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.8%
A change of -2.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 39% likelihood event, which has occurred 501 times out of 1277 in the last five years
Of these 501 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 252 occasions
This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: AA 8.4%, vs. S&P500 1.7%; Outperformed market
(23% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next 10 days)
AA stock increased 8.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.7%
A change of 8.4% or more over ten trading days is a 23% likelihood event, which has occurred 290 times out of 1288 in the last five years
Of these 290 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 169 occasions
This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: AA 7.5%, vs. S&P500 -1.1%; Outperformed market
(17% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)
AA stock increased 7.5% over a five-day trading period ending 12/14/2021, much higher compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.1%
A change of 7.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 17% likelihood event, which has occurred 217 times out of 1293 in the last five years
Of these 217 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 121 occasions
This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.
Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1] 2021
YTD [1] 2017-21
Total [2]
AA Return -3% 119% 80%
S&P 500 Return -1% 24% 107%
Trefis MS Portfolio Return -2% 42% 282%
[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/15/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017
Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-16 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Shares in Alcoa Surged This Week
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What happened
Shares in bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products company Alcoa (NYSE: AA) were up 10% in the week as of 3 p.m. ET Thursday. The move comes based on an improvement in the outlook for aluminum prices.
It comes down to a combination of factors, but probably the most prominent was the 9.6% rise in the producer price index announced this week. The index measures the change in selling prices received for the output of domestic producers.
In a nutshell, the data confirmed fears that inflationary pressures are rising in the economy. Hence, investors sought out stocks that benefit from increases in raw material prices, such as Alcoa. In addition, Alcoa was boosted by the news that China's aluminum output fell in November compared to October. This was due to an explosion at a smelter and production cuts to meet climate aims (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and responding to energy shortages.
Lower production in China matters a lot because the country is the leading player in the aluminum market. In addition, investors in Alcoa were pleased to hear of the closure of a smelter in Washington state as part of its ongoing review of its operating assets.
So what
These movements are part and parcel of investing in the commodity-related sector. Anything seen as restrictive to supply, with the demand side remaining relatively stable, will make investors feel more positive about prices. That's good news for Alcoa. Throw in the inflation data, and, naturally, investor attention will zero in on Alcoa.
Image source: Getty Images.
Now what
As ever, the question is how sustainable the move might be? Commodity prices are notoriously volatile, and high prices usually induce supply increases down the line and possibly some demand destruction.
On the other hand, it's difficult not to think that the lingering COVID-19 pandemic has led to supply issues that could extend into 2022 and even turn into structural problems. As such, provided global growth holds, Alcoa's near-term prospects look good, and the stock offers a decent way to profit in an inflationary environment.
10 stocks we like better than Alcoa Corporation
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*Stock Advisor returns as of December 16, 2021
Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-15 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Estimating The Fair Value Of Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA)
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In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$1.65b US$1.12b US$852.6m US$714.7m US$638.0m US$593.8m US$568.5m US$554.9m US$548.9m US$547.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x2 Est @ -23.94% Est @ -16.17% Est @ -10.73% Est @ -6.92% Est @ -4.26% Est @ -2.39% Est @ -1.09% Est @ -0.17%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1% US$1.5k US$978 US$694 US$544 US$453 US$394 US$352 US$321 US$297 US$276
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$5.8b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.1%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$548m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.1%– 2.0%) = US$11b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$11b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)10= US$5.5b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$11b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$50.5, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NYSE:AA Discounted Cash Flow December 15th 2021
Important assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alcoa as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.169. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Alcoa, we've compiled three additional aspects you should explore:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Alcoa (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does AA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-10 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Alcoa Stock Popped This Week
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What happened
Shares of aluminum giant Alcoa (NYSE: AA) popped this week, rising 10.1% through the week as of 10:20 a.m. ET Friday, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. It wasn't simply a rebound after the mining stock's recent decline in the broader market sell-off -- an analyst foresees strong growth in Alcoa through 2025.
So what
In a research report issued earlier in the week, analyst Christopher LaFemina at Jefferies Financial Group upgraded 2022 earnings forecast for Alcoa to $6.62 per share from $6.19 a share, according to MarketBeat. The analyst further expects Alcoa to earn $7.66 per share in 2023, $7.84 a share in 2024, and $9.32 per share in 2025.
In November, LaFemina upgraded Alcoa stock with a price target of $60 a share, driven by a strong outlook for the aluminum market based on the metal's rising demand as more nations strive to decarbonize.
Image source: Getty Images.
Alcoa is, indeed, on solid footing, having recently earned record net income in its third quarter as alumina and aluminum prices continued to rise. Alcoa also ended the quarter with only $1.8 billion in debt versus a cash balance of $1.45 billion. Aluminum is made from alumina produced from bauxite ore.
Its strong financials just prompted Fitch Ratings to upgrade its rating on Alcoa's debt. Alcoa's modest debt, low pension obligations, cost efficiency, production flexibility, and leadership in the industry are just some of the reasons behind Fitch's ratings upgrade. Fitch also raised its aluminum price forecast for 2022, largely because of low production from China.
China, the world's largest aluminum market, has been one of the biggest factors behind this year's rally in aluminum prices. China has curtailed aluminum production significantly in recent months in a bid to cut greenhouse gas emissions. China's state-owned researcher Beijing Antaike Information Development expects almost 49% of China's alumina this year to come from imported bauxite versus only 30% in 2015, according to Bloomberg.
Now what
Alcoa looks compelling given the industry fundamentals. Alcoa is also making some really smart moves like diversifying into red-hot areas such as high-purity alumina that's used in semiconductors and lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. With management also initiating Alcoa's first-ever dividend in October in what can be seen as an affirmation of Alcoa's financial fortitude, the stock looks like the kind that could continue to rally in 2022 and beyond.
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*Stock Advisor returns as of November 10, 2021
Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-06 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Offshore wind could power Alcoa's Portland smelter in Australia
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By comparison, as of 2020, there were 7.4 GW of onshore wind farms with 4 GW of capacity due to start construction.
The offshore industry could take off following Australia's passage last month of long-awaited legislation setting a framework for developing offshore wind farms, although regulations flowing from the law still have to be worked out.
If Alinta's Spinifex project went ahead, the Portland smelter, run by Alcoa, could be powered by up to 100% renewables, the companies said.
"This proposal offers an ability to make a step change impact to Portland Aluminium's carbon footprint," Portland Aluminium Smelter Manager Ron Jorgensen said in a statement.
The smelter, the biggest single-power user in the state of Victoria, currently depends on coal-fired power and is looking for ways to decarbonise.
The smelter received government aid and a cheap power deal earlier this year to help it stay open for another five years.
Alinta Energy is owned by private Hong Kong conglomerate Chow Tai Fook Enterprises.
($1 = 1.4180 Australian dollars)
(Reporting by Sonali Paul; Editing by Devika Syamnath)
((Sonali.Paul@thomsonreuters.com; +61 407 119 523;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-02 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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January 2022 Options Now Available For Alcoa (AA)
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Investors in Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) saw new options begin trading today, for the January 2022 expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the AA options chain for the new January 2022 contracts and identified one put and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $44.00 strike price has a current bid of $3.40. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $44.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $40.60 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of AA, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $44.68/share today.
Because the $44.00 strike represents an approximate 2% discount to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract would expire worthless. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 57%. Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change, publishing a chart of those numbers on our website under the contract detail page for this contract. Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 7.73% return on the cash commitment, or 65.59% annualized — at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, and highlighting in green where the $44.00 strike is located relative to that history:
Turning to the calls side of the option chain, the call contract at the $45.00 strike price has a current bid of $3.65. If an investor was to purchase shares of AA stock at the current price level of $44.68/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $45.00. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 8.89% if the stock gets called away at the January 2022 expiration (before broker commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if AA shares really soar, which is why looking at the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, as well as studying the business fundamentals becomes important. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $45.00 strike highlighted in red:
Considering the fact that the $45.00 strike represents an approximate 1% premium to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 47%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of those numbers (the trading history of the option contract will also be charted). Should the covered call contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 8.17% boost of extra return to the investor, or 69.34% annualized, which we refer to as the YieldBoost.
The implied volatility in the put contract example is 68%, while the implied volatility in the call contract example is 69%.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing twelve month volatility (considering the last 252 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $44.68) to be 63%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth looking at, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Top YieldBoost Calls of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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COLUMN-Carbon brakes aluminium supply response to booming prices: Andy Home
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By Andy Home
LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - China, the world's largest aluminium producer, is still running short of primary metal.
The country imported another 140,000 tonnes in October, bringing the year-to-date total to 1.27 million tonnes.
Multiple Chinese smelters have been ordered to reduce or curtail production as provincial governments try to meet quarterly energy usage and efficiency targets.
China's national output of aluminium peaked in February, when it was running at an annualised rate of 39.7 million tonnes. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) estimates it was 38.5 million tonnes in October.
The call on metal from the rest of the world is depleting inventories. London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks have fallen to 893,775 tonnes, their lowest level since 2007.
Can Western producers respond to the call?
The price incentive is there. LME three-month aluminium CMAL3 is currently trading around $2,640 per tonne, off October's 13-year peak of $3,229 but still at a historically elevated level.
But carbon is now as important as price for most producers, a collective green pivot that is muting the supply response to low stocks and high prices.
SMELTER TROUBLE
Aluminium production outside of China rose by a marginal 1.7% to 21.97 million tonnes in the first 10 months of this year, according to the IAI. October's annualised run-rate was just 271,000 tonnes higher than December 2020.
Unforeseen supply hits have played their part in restricting growth despite a step-change higher in the aluminium price.
A protracted strike at the Kitimat smelter in Canada - resolved in October - has dented North American production, which fell by 1.8% over January-October.
High gas and energy prices in Europe are constraining regional smelter production, which was running at an annualised 3.29 million tonnes in October, down from in excess of 3.40 million in both April and May.
But there hasn't been much in the way of new capacity coming online either. That's a result of the low pricing environment of the last decade, which was characterised by China's over-production and high exports.
The largest single addition this year has been the full commissioning of the Samalaju Phase 3 smelter in Malaysia, a 320,000-tonne per year capacity boost for owner Press Metal PMET.KL.
The ramp-up of the plant has fuelled an 8.9% increase in Asian output in the first 10 months of the year. Only Latin America registered higher growth of 16.4% but that reflects the partial curtailment of two smelters in the first half of 2020 - Brazil’s Albras (fire) and Argentina’s Aluar (COVID-19).
GREEN CAPACITY
It's worth noting that Press Metals' smelters are predominantly supplied by hydro power from the Sarawak State grid.
Carbon is emerging as a key differentiator in the aluminium market as producers respond to growing demand for green metal.
It is also currently defining how producers are investing their capital in new smelters and capacity restarts.
The single largest addition to non-Chinese supply next year will be the new 428,500-tonne per year Taishet smelter in Russia, a hydro-powered build-out of Rusal's green aluminium portfolio.
Rio Tinto RIO.L announced in November a 26,500-tonne expansion of its AP60 smelter in Canada, which, according to the company, "produces some of the world's lowest carbon aluminium with renewable hydro power here in Quebec".
Hydro power is why Alcoa AA.N is next year reactivating 268,000 tonnes of idled capacity at the Alumar smelter in Brazil. The restart is predicated on being able to secure what the company describes as "competitive, renewable, power arrangements" from Brazil's hydro-electric systems.
Wind and solar power will help reenergize 35,000 tonnes per year of idled capacity at the Portland smelter in Australia. It was last operated in 2009.
Alcoa was considering closing the plant completely last year but a new energy deal with three suppliers will underpin a move to lift Portland's renewable energy share from a current 30% to 50% by 2030.
Just about all the new capacity coming on stream outside of China next year is going to be low-carbon metal.
If green is the only colour, restarting old smelters powered by fossil fuels doesn't make a lot of sense.
Moreover, producers are simultaneously investing heavily in greening their existing operations.
Rusal 0486.HK, for example, is embarking on what it terms "an unprecedented overhaul program" at its higher-carbon plants, converting them to pre-bake anode technology with a target of cutting energy usage by 20%. The rebuild work will take until 2030 to complete.
RECYCLING
Investment is also flowing into more recycling capacity.
Recycling is a core component of the aluminium industry's commitment to lower its carbon footprint but it's also a reflection of a shifting regulatory landscape around "scrap" metal.
Destination countries such as China are pushing back against lower-grade scrap imports and origin countries, particularly European, are looking to tighten scrap export rules.
Norwegian producer Hydro NHY.OL has this year announced three scrap-based expansions at its European extrusion plants and a new 120,000-tonne per year recycling facility in Michigan.
PRIMARY SQUEEZE
Scrap, however, can't be delivered against the LME's primary aluminium contract.
It's the primary metal part of the global supply chain that is currently being challenged, both in China and everywhere else.
That's because smelting aluminium is the most carbon intensive part of the supply chain and the source of power is the biggest carbon variable.
So far at least, the West's response to China's aluminium production slowdown has been directed almost exclusively down green channels.
However, there is only so much renewable power available and there are many other industrial sectors as hungry for it as aluminium.
Such Western constraints put the supply focus back on China, where there is plenty of new smelter capacity that could start up but can't due to a lack of power capacity.
Carbon is again the culprit for China's producers, most of which use coal to power their smelters.
That leaves the global primary aluminium market increasingly sensitive to Beijing's quarterly and annual decarbonisation targets.
And the rain.
Drought in hydro-rich Yunnan province earlier this year curtailed production in what is a fast-growing low-carbon aluminium hub.
Aluminium traders didn't used to think much about the weather in pricing the market but in a green hydro-rich world that may change.
High aluminium prices have yet to generate a producer supply responsehttps://tmsnrt.rs/31kJDHX
(Editing by Mark Potter)
((andy.home@thomsonreuters.com, 44-207-542-4412 and on Twitter https://twitter.com/AndyHomeMetals))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-12-01 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Notable Wednesday Option Activity: VEEV, AA, YETI
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Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Veeva Systems Inc (Symbol: VEEV), where a total volume of 3,780 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 378,000 underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 65.5% of VEEV's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 576,920 shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $270 strike put option expiring December 17, 2021, with 522 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 52,200 underlying shares of VEEV. Below is a chart showing VEEV's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $270 strike highlighted in orange:
Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) saw options trading volume of 48,594 contracts, representing approximately 4.9 million underlying shares or approximately 62.4% of AA's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 7.8 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $55 strike call option expiring December 17, 2021, with 8,346 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 834,600 underlying shares of AA. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $55 strike highlighted in orange:
And Yeti Holdings Inc (Symbol: YETI) saw options trading volume of 5,570 contracts, representing approximately 557,000 underlying shares or approximately 59.7% of YETI's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 932,650 shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $80 strike put option expiring December 17, 2021, with 524 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 52,400 underlying shares of YETI. Below is a chart showing YETI's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $80 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for VEEV options, AA options, or YETI options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Today's Most Active Call & Put Options of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-30 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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One Global aluminium producer seeks Q1 premiums of $195/T -sources
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TOKYO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - One global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers premiums of $195 per tonne for January-March primary metal shipments, down 11% from the current quarter, two sources directly involved in quarterly pricing talks said on Tuesday.
Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the metal and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price CMAL0 set the benchmark for the region.
For the October-December quarter, Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $220 per tonne PREM-ALUM-JP, up 19% from the prior quarter.
(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi, Editing by Louise Heavens)
((Yuka.Obayashi@thomsonreuters.com; +813-4520-1265;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-24 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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How a little Texas town snagged a $17 bln Samsung chip plant deal
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By Tina Bellon
AUSTIN, Texas, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Williamson County Judge Bill Gravell is the first to admit few people had heard of his small town of Taylor in Central Texas before South Korean conglomerate Samsung announced it was building its new $17 billion chip factory there.
The Electronics Co Ltd 005930.KS plant, which is expected to produce advanced high-performance chips, is hailed by local, state and U.S. officials as an important step in shoring up domestic chip supply and reducing dependence on Chinese production.
"Today, Taylor, Texas might be better known around the world than any other city in central Texas," Gravell, the county's top elected official, said during a Wednesday interview.
Gravell attributed the success of Tuesday's announcement to direct collaboration with Texas Governor Greg Abbott's office, who he said got personally involved to secure the plant's electricity supply with Sempra Energy's SRE.N Oncor Electric Delivery Co.
Gravell said Oncor's Chief Executive Allen Nye met with Samsung President Jung-bae Lee in Austin earlier this year to assure the company that industrial users on Oncor's network did not suffer outages during last winter's massive Texas snow storm.
Samsung has also struck an agreement with Canadian EPCOR Utilities Inc [RIC:RIC:EPCOR.UL] to build a water pipeline to the plant from Alcoa, 25 miles (40 km) east of Taylor, Gravell said.
"This plant will not affect any existing water sources, it's a brand new water source brought in by Samsung," he said.
The county judge said state officials from the economic development department also helped him navigate international business talks, recommending to him a book on Asian culture.
"I wasn't necessarily sure how to negotiate with Koreans, I've never had that experience before," Gravell said. "I studied up and learned the chapters by heart."
Samsung has not specified what the new plant will make beyond advanced logic chips which can be used to power mobile devices and autonomous vehicles.
Gravell said company executives told him they did not know the technical specifics of the chips to be manufactured at the new factory yet because today's technology might be outdated in a few years.
Samsung said the plant, which is projected to create 2,000 high-tech jobs, would start production in the second half of 2024.
(Reporting by Tina Bellon in Austin, Texas; Editing by Karishma Singh)
((Tina.Bellon@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 573 5029; Reuters Messaging: tina.bellon.thomsonreuters@reuters.net; Twitter @TinaBellon))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-17 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa To Participate In Goldman Sachs Global Metals & Mining Conference At 10:00 AM ET
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(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corporation (AA) will present at the virtual Goldman Sachs Global Metals & Mining Conference.
The event is scheduled to begin at 10:00 AM ET on Nov. 17, 2021.
To access the live webcast, log on to https://investors.alcoa.com/events-and-presentations/events-calendar/default.aspx
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-17 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Announces Transfer Of Approx. $1 Bln Of Pension Obligations - Quick Facts
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(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corporation (AA) announced the purchase of group annuity contracts that will facilitate the transfer of approximately $1 billion of pension obligations and assets associated with defined benefit pension plans for certain retirees and beneficiaries. The contracts will be executed by two subsidiaries of Athene Holding, Ltd. (ATH). Athene will assume payments for approximately 11,200 participants in the U.S. pension plans.
Alcoa noted that the company's remaining U.S. defined benefit pension plans are expected to be greater than 95 percent funded after the transfer is complete.
In the fourth quarter, Alcoa estimates to record a non-cash settlement charge of approximately $565 million or $2.96 per share related to the annuity deal.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-17 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Stock Above $50 – What’s Behind This Surge?
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Alcoa stock (NYSE: AA) has jumped 8.5% in just the last one week and has surpassed $50 level, outperforming the S&P 500 which declined marginally in the last week. If you look at the change in the stock over the last ten days and one month, AA stock has increased (13% and 6.8%, respectively) and outperformed the broader market on both occasions. The recent increase in stock price was mainly after a Jefferies analyst upgraded Alcoa stock to “buy” from “hold” and boosted the price target from $52 to $60. Following the push for decarbonization, the outlook for aluminum has become more positive. Aluminum is a critical metal for decarbonization and will likely continue to see increased demand compared to steel given its lightness (aluminum is about one-third the weight of steel) and easy recyclability. The push for electric vehicles will also drive demand for aluminum as EVs contain 30% more aluminum compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. Additionally, Alcoa has decided to restart 35,000 tons of curtailed capacity at its Portland Aluminum joint venture in Australia next year onward. A revival of the long-struggling operation is another signal that aluminum’s massive rally is finally convincing producers to bring more capacity on line.
Now, is AA stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 57% chance of a rise in AA stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on AA Stock Chance of Rise.
Twenty-One Day: AA 6.8%, vs. S&P500 5.6%; Outperformed market
(34% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 21 days)
AA stock increased 6.8% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.6%
A change of 6.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 424 times out of 1255 in the last five years
Of these 424 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 240 occasions
This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: AA 13%, vs. S&P500 1.7%; Outperformed market
(13% likelihood event; 62% probability of rise over next 10 days)
AA stock increased 13% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.7%
A change of 13% or more over ten trading days is a 13% likelihood event, which has occurred 167 times out of 1266 in the last five years
Of these 167 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 104 occasions
This points to a 62% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: AA 8.5%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Outperformed market
(15% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)
AA stock increased 8.5% over a five-day trading period ending 11/12/2021, much higher compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.3%
A change of 8.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 15% likelihood event, which has occurred 193 times out of 1271 in the last five years
Of these 193 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 108 occasions
This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.
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See all Trefis Price Estimates
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-15 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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What Kind Of Investors Own Most Of Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA)?
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Every investor in Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. Companies that used to be publicly owned tend to have lower insider ownership.
Alcoa has a market capitalization of US$9.7b, so it's too big to fly under the radar. We'd expect to see both institutions and retail investors owning a portion of the company. In the chart below, we can see that institutions are noticeable on the share registry. We can zoom in on the different ownership groups, to learn more about Alcoa.
NYSE:AA Ownership Breakdown November 15th 2021
What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Alcoa?
Institutions typically measure themselves against a benchmark when reporting to their own investors, so they often become more enthusiastic about a stock once it's included in a major index. We would expect most companies to have some institutions on the register, especially if they are growing.
Alcoa already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This can indicate that the company has a certain degree of credibility in the investment community. However, it is best to be wary of relying on the supposed validation that comes with institutional investors. They too, get it wrong sometimes. When multiple institutions own a stock, there's always a risk that they are in a 'crowded trade'. When such a trade goes wrong, multiple parties may compete to sell stock fast. This risk is higher in a company without a history of growth. You can see Alcoa's historic earnings and revenue below, but keep in mind there's always more to the story.
NYSE:AA Earnings and Revenue Growth November 15th 2021
Since institutional investors own more than half the issued stock, the board will likely have to pay attention to their preferences. Hedge funds don't have many shares in Alcoa. Looking at our data, we can see that the largest shareholder is The Vanguard Group, Inc. with 8.9% of shares outstanding. In comparison, the second and third largest shareholders hold about 4.5% and 3.5% of the stock.
Looking at the shareholder registry, we can see that 50% of the ownership is controlled by the top 23 shareholders, meaning that no single shareholder has a majority interest in the ownership.
Researching institutional ownership is a good way to gauge and filter a stock's expected performance. The same can be achieved by studying analyst sentiments. There are a reasonable number of analysts covering the stock, so it might be useful to find out their aggregate view on the future.
Insider Ownership Of Alcoa
While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. Management ultimately answers to the board. However, it is not uncommon for managers to be executive board members, especially if they are a founder or the CEO.
Most consider insider ownership a positive because it can indicate the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, on some occasions too much power is concentrated within this group.
Our data suggests that insiders own under 1% of Alcoa Corporation in their own names. Being so large, we would not expect insiders to own a large proportion of the stock. Collectively, they own US$34m of stock. It is always good to see at least some insider ownership, but it might be worth checking if those insiders have been selling.
General Public Ownership
With a 20% ownership, the general public have some degree of sway over Alcoa. While this group can't necessarily call the shots, it can certainly have a real influence on how the company is run.
Next Steps:
I find it very interesting to look at who exactly owns a company. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks for example - Alcoa has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
But ultimately it is the future, not the past, that will determine how well the owners of this business will do. Therefore we think it advisable to take a look at this free report showing whether analysts are predicting a brighter future.
NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-11 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Metals Stocks Are Red-Hot Today
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What happened
A funny thing happened on the way to the stock market yesterday.
A new report out of S&P Global Market Intelligence Tuesday evening announced that global metals prices are likely to remain above historical averages all the way through 2025. That sounds like it should have been good news for metals companies like Alcoa (NYSE: AA), Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX), and Brazil's Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (NYSE: SID) -- but in fact, all three stocks were down yesterday.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why did that happen? Reports landed yesterday showed that inflation rates in the U.S. hit a 30-year high, spiking the S&P 500 for nearly a 1% loss, and tumbling metals shares along with the index despite the good, metals-specifics news.
Luckily for investors in those shares, however, the inflation panic seems to have passed, and today, shares of all three stocks are rebounding:
Alcoa is up 11.4%.
Century is up 13.4%.
Companhia Siderúrgica is up 8.8%.
So what
As it turns out, moreover, these two things are connected. S&P Global Market Intelligence in fact opined on Tuesday that "inflation fears and supply chain concerns" may be the reason why metals prices can be expected to remain high -- and metals stocks remain profitable -- over the next several years.
As S&P Global Metals and Mining Research team research director Mark Ferguson explained, the economy's "rebound from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic through 2022," combined with "pent-up consumer spending, government stimulus efforts and the accelerating energy transition will continue to drive demand, prices and exploration budgets" for metal resources.
Now what
True, Ferguson sees the greatest prospects for gains in more exotic metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel -- and relatively lower prospects for steel (Companhia Siderúrgica) and aluminum (Alcoa and Century). Also true, he noted that metals prices will probably "slip moderately in 2022 from their current highs" as supply chains unsnarl. But even so, demand-driven "medium-term supply constraints" will remain as companies and countries demand ever larger supplies of metal to build out their "global energy transition" to renewable fuels.
It's this, in a nutshell, that is "setting the stage for historically above-average [metals] prices through to 2025" -- and it's the reason Alcoa stock and all the rest are going up today.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-07 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa To Restart Curtailed Aluminum Smelting Capacity At Portland Aluminium In Australia
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(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corp. (AA) said that the Portland Aluminium joint venture plans to restart 35,000 metric tons per year or mtpy of curtailed capacity at its aluminum smelter in the State of Victoria in Australia.
The company noted that the process to restart the capacity, which has been idle since 2009, will begin immediately, with metal production expected to start in the third quarter of 2022.
Portland Aluminium is an unincorporated joint venture with 358,000 mtpy of total capacity, and Alcoa Corporation has 197,000 mtpy of consolidated capacity.
Once the restart is complete, Portland Aluminium will operate at about 95 percent of total capacity and Alcoa will have about 186,000 mtpy of its consolidated capacity at Portland operating.
The project is expected to create approximately 30 permanent roles at the smelter and about 50 temporary construction positions. The smelter currently has a workforce of about 680, consisting of both direct employees and contractors.
The restart's total cost is expected to be about $28 million of which Alcoa Corporation's share is approximately $9 million. Restart expenses are expected to be incurred between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022.
Alcoa also recently announced the restart of its 268,000 mtpy of smelting capacity at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, which is expected to be operational by the fourth quarter of 2022. When both projects are complete, Alcoa will have approximately 82 percent of its 2.99 million metric tons of global aluminum smelting capacity operating.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-11-07 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa to restart long idled capacity at Australian aluminium smelter
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MELBOURNE, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Alcoa Corp AA.N said on Monday it would restart 35,000 metric tons a year of long-curtailed capacity at its Portland aluminium smelter in Australia, which will take operations at the plant to around 95% of capacity amid tight supply for the metal.
The process of restarting the capacity, idled since 2009, will begin immediately with metal output to start in the third quarter of 2022, Alcoa said.
"Restarting the idle capacity improves the smelter's cost structure, competitiveness and longer term sustainability," Alcoa Australia President Michael Gollschewski said in a statement.
Aluminium prices hit a 13-year high in October due to output restrictions in China, the world's biggest producer. While off that high, prices remain elevated due to strong demand for the lightweight metal used in packaging and construction.
The Portland smelter, with total capacity of 358,000 tonnes a year, earlier this year won government aid to remain open for five more years after Alcoa threatened to close it in a drive to cut costs and carbon emissions.
The plant is the biggest single power user in the state of Victoria and lined up a cheap power deal with AGL Energy AGL.AX, Origin Energy ORG.AX and Alinta Energy as part of the lifeline agreed in March.
AGL Ltd AGL.AX, which used to be the exclusive supplier to the plant, said on Monday it agreed to supply 72 megawatts of extra power for four years, beginning in July 2022, for the capacity being brought back online.
The restart is expected to cost about $28 million, split between the smelter's co-owners -- Alcoa, Australia's Alumina Ltd ALU.AX, and arms of CITIC Resources 1205.HK and Japan's Marubeni Corp 8002.T.
(Reporting by Sonali Paul; editing by Richard Pullin)
((Sonali.Paul@thomsonreuters.com; +61 407 119 523;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-27 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Corporation (AA) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for October 28, 2021
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Alcoa Corporation (AA) will begin trading ex-dividend on October 28, 2021. A cash dividend payment of $0.1 per share is scheduled to be paid on November 19, 2021. Shareholders who purchased AA prior to the ex-dividend date are eligible for the cash dividend payment. This represents an 11.11% increase over prior dividend payment.
The previous trading day's last sale of AA was $49.55, representing a -13.93% decrease from the 52 week high of $57.57 and a 307.82% increase over the 52 week low of $12.15.
AA is a part of the Basic Industries sector, which includes companies such as General Electric Company (GE) and AMTEK, Inc. (AME). AA's current earnings per share, an indicator of a company's profitability, is $4.3. Zacks Investment Research reports AA's forecasted earnings growth in 2021 as 690.52%, compared to an industry average of 32.1%.
For more information on the declaration, record and payment dates, visit the aa Dividend History page. Our Dividend Calendar has the full list of stocks that have an ex-dividend today.
Interested in gaining exposure to AA through an Exchange Traded Fund [ETF]?
The following ETF(s) have AA as a top-10 holding:
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME)
Invesco DWA Basic Materials Momentum ETF (PYZ)
First Trust Dorsey Wright Momentum & Value ETF (DVLU)
iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF (ISCV)
JPMorgan Diversified Return U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF (JPSE).
The top-performing ETF of this group is JPSE with an increase of 2.08% over the last 100 days. XME has the highest percent weighting of AA at 4.56%.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-26 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Ex-Dividend Reminder: Signature Bank, EPR Properties and Alcoa
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Looking at the universe of stocks we cover at Dividend Channel, on 10/28/21, Signature Bank (Symbol: SBNY), EPR Properties (Symbol: EPR), and Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) will all trade ex-dividend for their respective upcoming dividends. Signature Bank will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.56 on 11/12/21, EPR Properties will pay its monthly dividend of $0.25 on 11/15/21, and Alcoa Corporation will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.10 on 11/19/21. As a percentage of SBNY's recent stock price of $309.65, this dividend works out to approximately 0.18%, so look for shares of Signature Bank to trade 0.18% lower — all else being equal — when SBNY shares open for trading on 10/28/21. Similarly, investors should look for EPR to open 0.48% lower in price and for AA to open 0.20% lower, all else being equal.
Below are dividend history charts for SBNY, EPR, and AA, showing historical dividends prior to the most recent ones declared.
Signature Bank (Symbol: SBNY):
EPR Properties (Symbol: EPR):
Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA):
In general, dividends are not always predictable, following the ups and downs of company profits over time. Therefore, a good first due diligence step in forming an expectation of annual yield going forward, is looking at the history above, for a sense of stability over time. This can help in judging whether the most recent dividends from these companies are likely to continue. If they do continue, the current estimated yields on annualized basis would be 0.72% for Signature Bank, 5.81% for EPR Properties, and 0.79% for Alcoa Corporation.
In Tuesday trading, Signature Bank shares are currently down about 0.9%, EPR Properties shares are up about 0.9%, and Alcoa Corporation shares are down about 1.4% on the day.
Click here to learn which 25 S.A.F.E. dividend stocks should be on your radar screen »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-22 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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3 Smart Options Trades for Bulls to Play
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InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
The autumn correction appears to be over, and stocks are oh-so-close to a new all-time high. Indeed, by the time you read this, the S&P 500 may well be in record territory. So to celebrate the bulls’ return, we’re cooking up three smart options trades.
Previous to the recent trend reversal, it was tricky to find quality bullish patterns. Solid setups became scarce with the S&P 500 stuck below the 50-day moving average and many sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials falling into downtrends. In that environment, intelligent traders adopt a “less is more” approach. Priorities shift from maximizing gains to minimizing losses.
7 Stocks to Buy on Any Stock Market Dips
But, as I said, the flip has switched. With the S&P 500’s trend now pointing in the right direction, it’s time to dial up exposure. Here are three stocks that offer good opportunities right now.
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B)
Alcoa (NYSE:AA)
EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG)
As always, we’ll do a quick rundown of each chart, followed by an options trade.
Smart Options Trades: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
Source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade
Financials have been riding the twin tailwinds of an economic recovery and rising long-term interest rates. The former leads to more borrowing and business for banks. The latter expands profit margins by increasing how much they can charge on loans. It also boosts the yield banks receive on deposits invested in Treasurys and other low-risk debt instruments.
Whether or not you understand precisely why financials are enjoying the current economic climate matters less than your ability to read a chart. The Financial Sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLF) has been a monster bull run and exhibited relative strength during the recent market correction. The largest holding in the fund is Berkshire Hathaway, and after this week’s breakout, I think it has room to run.
To capitalize, consider entering a bull call diagonal spread.
Options Trades: Buy the December $280 call while selling the November $290 call for a net debit of $8.40.
Alcoa (AA)
Source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade
Inflation pressures have been heating up. Crude oil gets the lion’s share of the attention, but industrial commodities across the board have been climbing. While some traders try to exploit the raging bull run by buying commodities directly, others use metal-based companies like Alcoa that benefit from the price ramp.
Last week’s earnings report delivered smashing profits. The Street cheered by jamming AA stock to a fresh 52-week high on heavy volume.
7 Stocks to Buy on Any Stock Market Dips
We now find ourselves in a four-bar pullback that has returned prices to pre-earnings levels and potential support. As long as we form a higher pivot low above the rising 50-day moving average ($47.25), I like buying this dip.
Options Trades: Sell the November $44/$39 bull put spread for 64 cents.
Consider this a bet that AA stock will stay above $44 for the next month.
Smart Options Trades: EOG Resources (EOG)
Source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade
Energy stocks have been red hot of late, bringing no shortage of opportunity to investors looking to cash in on oil’s ascent. While many stocks in the space are overbought, some have paused to build compelling breakout setups.
EOG Resources is one of them. Its price is basing nicely above a rising 20-day moving average. What’s more, $100 looms large overhead as a psychologically powerful magnet beckoning to prices. If you think the trend continues, there’s about $8 of upside from here.
No need to get overly fancy in the trade structure here. I think a simple bull call spread will suffice. We’ll go to December to provide some time for the stock to make its move.
Options Trades: Buy the December $95/$100 bull call spread for $1.60.
On the date of publication, Tyler Craig did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
For a free trial to the best trading community on the planet and Tyler’s current home, click here!
The post 3 Smart Options Trades for Bulls to Play appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-22 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Notable ETF Inflow Detected - XME, FCX, AA, MP
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Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the SPDR— S&P— Metals & Mining ETF (Symbol: XME) where we have detected an approximate $195.6 million dollar inflow -- that's a 11.0% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 40,500,000 to 44,950,000). Among the largest underlying components of XME, in trading today Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (Symbol: FCX) is up about 0.9%, Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) is up about 1.8%, and MP Materials Corp (Symbol: MP) is up by about 3.5%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the XME Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of XME, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, XME's low point in its 52 week range is $23.32 per share, with $47.85 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $45.12. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
Click here to find out which 9 other ETFs had notable inflows »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-21 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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December 3rd Options Now Available For Alcoa
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Investors in Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) saw new options begin trading today, for the December 3rd expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the AA options chain for the new December 3rd contracts and identified one put and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $49.00 strike price has a current bid of $2.66. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $49.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $46.34 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of AA, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $50.21/share today.
Because the $49.00 strike represents an approximate 2% discount to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract would expire worthless. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 100%. Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change, publishing a chart of those numbers on our website under the contract detail page for this contract. Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 5.43% return on the cash commitment, or 46.04% annualized — at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, and highlighting in green where the $49.00 strike is located relative to that history:
Turning to the calls side of the option chain, the call contract at the $51.00 strike price has a current bid of $2.97. If an investor was to purchase shares of AA stock at the current price level of $50.21/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $51.00. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 7.49% if the stock gets called away at the December 3rd expiration (before broker commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if AA shares really soar, which is why looking at the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, as well as studying the business fundamentals becomes important. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $51.00 strike highlighted in red:
Considering the fact that the $51.00 strike represents an approximate 2% premium to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 99%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of those numbers (the trading history of the option contract will also be charted). Should the covered call contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 5.92% boost of extra return to the investor, or 50.16% annualized, which we refer to as the YieldBoost.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing twelve month volatility (considering the last 252 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $50.21) to be 63%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth looking at, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Top YieldBoost Calls of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-16 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa (NYSE:AA) swells 22% this week, taking one-year gains to 344%
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For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. When you buy and hold the right company, the returns can make a huge difference to both you and your family. In the case of Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA), the share price is up an incredible 344% in the last year alone. On top of that, the share price is up 70% in about a quarter. The company reported its financial results recently; you can catch up on the latest numbers by reading our company report. And shareholders have also done well over the long term, with an increase of 45% in the last three years.
Since it's been a strong week for Alcoa shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the last year Alcoa grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.
When a company is just on the edge of profitability it can be well worth considering other metrics in order to more precisely gauge growth (and therefore understand share price movements).
We think that the revenue growth of 20% could have some investors interested. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
NYSE:AA Earnings and Revenue Growth October 16th 2021
We know that Alcoa has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Alcoa stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Alcoa shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 344% over the last year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 22%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Alcoa (including 1 which can't be ignored) .
Of course Alcoa may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-15 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Wall Street ends up with Goldman; Dow posts biggest weekly rise since June
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By Caroline Valetkevitch
NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Friday and the Dow scored its biggest weekly percentage gain since June, as Goldman Sachs rounded out a week of strong quarterly earnings for the big banks.
Goldman Sachs Group GS.N shares jumped 3.8% and gave the Dow its biggest boost, as a record wave of dealmaking activity drove a surge in the bank's quarterly profit.
Goldman's report followed strong results from Bank of America BAC.N and others this week. Banks were among the biggest positives for the S&P 500 on the day, and the index's bank index .SPXBKclimbed 2.1%.
Results from big financial institutions provided a strong start to third-quarter U.S. earnings, though investors will still watch in coming weeks for signs of impacts from supply chain disruptions and higher costs, especially for energy.
Forecasts now call for third-quarter S&P 500 earnings to show a 32% rise from a year ago. The latest forecast, based on results from 41 S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest, is up from 29.4% at the start of October, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
"We're starting to get into an earnings-driven rally here that I hope lasts. We'll really see the results in the next couple of weeks as a great bulk of companies in all sectors report," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Alcoa Corp shares AA.Nsurged 15.2% after the aluminum producer reported stronger-than-expected results, announced a $500 million buyback program and initiated a quarterly cash dividend.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 382.2 points, or 1.09%, to 35,294.76, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 33.11 points, or 0.75%, to 4,471.37 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 73.91 points, or 0.5%, to 14,897.34.
The Dow jumped 1.6% for the week, its biggest weekly percentage gain since June 25. The S&P 500 had its strongest weekly advance since July 23.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported a surprise rise in retail sales in September, although investors still worried that supply constraints could disrupt the holiday shopping season. A preliminary reading for consumer sentiment in October came in slightly below expectations.
Moderna Inc MRNA.O shares fell 2.3%. A Wall Street Journal report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is delaying its decision on authorizing Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for adolescents to check if the shot could increase the risk of heart inflammation.
On Thursday, Moderna shares jumped when an FDA panel voted to recommend booster shots of its COVID-19 vaccine for Americans aged 65 and older and high-risk people.
Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms gained as bitcoin BTC=BTSP hit $60,000 for the first time since April. Riot Blockchain RIOT.O ended up 6.6%.
Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.24-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
The S&P 500 posted 57 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 124 new highs and 59 new lows.
Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.83 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
(Additional reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru and Federica Urso in Gdansk; Editing by Anil D'Silva, Arun Koyyur and Nick Zieminski)
((caroline.valetkevitch@thomsonreuters.com))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-15 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Alcoa Stock Skyrocketed to 52-Week Highs Today
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What happened
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) shares are on fire Friday, jumping as much as 14% as of 10:45 a.m. EDT and hitting 52-week highs of $55.89 a share. The aluminum stock stunned the market with its third-quarter numbers and announced some big shareholder rewards that sent the markets into a tizzy.
So what
Given the recent developments in the aluminum industry, I have been upbeat about Alcoa's prospects for several weeks now and expected to see record quarterly numbers from the aluminum giant.
Alcoa didn't disappoint: It reported its highest-ever quarterly net income of $337 million for the third quarter, driven by 10% growth in revenue. Alcoa generated $3.1 billion in sales in the third quarter, thanks to higher alumina and aluminum prices. Alumina is used to produce aluminum, and Alcoa is the world's largest alumina producer.
Image source: Getty Images.
Alcoa generated $352 million in free cash flow in Q3 and ended the quarter with a whopping $1.45 billion cash in hand. Alcoa judiciously paid down debt worth $500 million in September and brought down its long-term debt to a very manageable level of $1.7 billion.
That also means Alcoa doesn't have any substantial debt maturing before 2027, and its employee pension plan is well funded, too, which leaves the company with a lot of excess cash. So what does it decide to do with all that money? Reward shareholders.
Alcoa announced its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.10 a share, to be paid on November 19. Management also announced a new share repurchase program worth $500 million over and above its ongoing repurchase program.
A combination of a dividend and share repurchases that effectively reduce the number of outstanding shares is the perfect recipe to boost stock prices.
Now what
Alcoa is a cyclical commodity stock, so a dividend is a milestone, as it means the company is confident it'll be able to pay out regular dividends even in a weaker metal-price environment. In CEO Roy Harvey's words, "Today, Alcoa is stronger and better poised for the future, and we plan to continue our positive momentum and consistently deliver value through the commodity cycle." Investors who held Alcoa shares with conviction through the recent nerve-wracking volatility in the metal markets must be a happy lot today.
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Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-15 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript
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Image source: The Motley Fool.
Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA)
Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Oct 14, 2021, 5:00 p.m. ET
Contents:
Prepared Remarks
Questions and Answers
Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Good afternoon and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the conference over to James Dwyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
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James Dwyer -- Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you and good day everyone. I'm joined today by Roy Harvey, Alcoa Corporation's President and Chief Executive Officer; and William Oplinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Roy and Bill.
As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.
In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. Finally, as previously announced, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website.
With that, here's Roy.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Jim. And thanks to those who are joining our call today. We had another strong quarter, bolstered by aluminum prices that are higher than we've seen in more than a decade. As in every quarter, Bill and I will discuss these results and take your questions.
Before we get underway, however, in particularly at a time where we are experiencing a rapidly changing market dynamic, I would like to reinforce once again that our values, which we established when we launched as an independent company in 2016 continue to guide us. It's not just about the results, but also how we achieve them. Our values continue to be foundational for our company and our embedded in all of our decisions.
Now, as Alcoa Corporation approaches its five-year anniversary, we've been reflecting on the achievements Alcoans across the globe that helped us to accomplish. It is clear that our strategic priorities are creating value. Today, Alcoa is much stronger than when we launched. We've significantly improved our processes, we've strengthened our balance sheet, we've reshaped our portfolio, we responded to societies need for responsible production launching the industry's most comprehensive portfolio of low-carbon products, and we've also certified many of our assets to the stringent standards of the Aluminum Stewardship Initiative.
In addition, our strategic priorities have helped us to do exactly what we said we wanted to do, strengthen our company to prepare for an even brighter future. And today, we've reached an important milestone. As you saw from the press release that we just issued, Alcoa has decided to initiate a quarterly dividend. Additionally, we've authorized a new share repurchase program that will complement our existing program that was authorized in 2018. These decisions concerning capital returns align with our existing capital allocation framework and reflect two important points. First, we have confidence in the strength of our company and our ability to generate cash to sustain these programs through the commodity cycle. Today, both our balance sheet and operating portfolio are in a much stronger position, with no substantial debt maturities until 2027. Second, we believe the markets we participate in will be stronger, that this cycle will last longer and then Alcoa is well positioned to deliver in a low-carbon ESG focused world. But our work is never complete. These achievements simply serve as a strong foundation.
Despite the positivefinancial news I am disappointed that we had a serious injury in the quarter. An electrical contractor in Brazil sustained a life-threatening electrical shock. Thankfully, he recovered and has now returned to work and implemented corrective actions. Our focus must always be on the safety of everyone who visits or works at our facilities.
As our comments progress today, I'd like to highlight some recent initiatives that align with our strategic priorities and that use this strong foundation as a starting point. The Alumar restart that will be powered by renewable energy, the joint development project for high purity alumina and our net-zero ambition. The green evolution is happening fast and as evidenced by these projects, we are positioning ourselves for the future. Also, we'll talk more today about the strength in aluminum pricing and an improved pricing trend in Alumina. But first, let's review the financials with our CFO, Bill Oplinger. Bill, please go ahead.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Roy. This quarter was even better than the previous one. Revenues at $3.1 billion were up $276 million or 10% sequentially. Revenues were up $744 million or 31% from the same period last year on higher aluminum and alumina prices. Realized aluminum prices were up 13% sequentially and 64% year-over-year. Third quarter earnings per share was $1.76 per share, $0.13 per share higher than the prior quarter and $2.02 per share higher than the year ago quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter increased 38% sequentially, to a record $2.05 per share. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items also increased, up 18% sequentially to $728 million, much higher than last year's $284 million.
These charts, which debuted last quarter show that the Aluminum segment with modest income taxes and virtually no minority interest continues to outperform and drive record net income. In the first nine months of 2021, the Aluminum segment has had its best year so far, with nearly $1.4 billion or 73% of Alcoa's total adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items of $1.9 billion. That segment EBITDA generated record adjusted net income. Before this year our best full year adjusted net income was in 2018 at $698 million. In 2021, our adjusted net income for the first nine months is already $822 million or $124 million higher. Now with Aluminum prices remaining at post global financial crisis highs and Alumina prices recovering nicely, earnings should be even better in the fourth quarter.
Now let's review adjusted EBITDA in more detail. The $110 million increase in adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was driven by higher metal prices as well as favorable currencies, slightly higher Alumina prices and better product pricing in Alumina and Aluminum. However, as you know, a Bauxite unloader at Alumar sustained structural damage in mid-July and we ramped down refinery production by roughly one-third with corresponding impacts to Bauxite production assurity [Phonetic]. This outage had a $27 million impact in the quarter, mostly affecting shipment volume and production costs. In addition, we experienced a few other impacts in the quarter, higher raw material costs, mostly caustic in the Alumina segment and carbon products in smelting, higher energy costs in Europe and to a lesser extent in Brazil were unfavorable by $71 million. Spain costs increased by $53 million, while we also experienced higher costs in Norway and Brazil. These increases were favorably offset by strong earnings in the Brazil hydros, the highest earnings in a decade for a net unfavorable energy impact of $17 million.
Lastly in the Aluminum segment, railcar delays in Canada and seasonal shipping patterns in Europe negatively impacted the results in the quarter. The other column primarily reflects the non-recurrence of the Portland smelter government support, which ended in the second quarter after we repowered the facility through July 2026, and increased accruals for residue storage area improvements in Brazil.
Now let's look at impacts in our cash flows. The cash flows continue to highlight major corporate actions as well as the benefits from very strong adjusted EBITDA. To illustrate the strong cash generation in the last quarter, we have bridged from the second quarter ending cash balance to the third quarter cash balance. Cash declined $200 million to $1.45 billion, our largest single outlay was $518 million in September when we redeemed the 2026 bonds, followed by working capital use of $206 million, $83 million of capital expenditures and a modest $19 million of pension and OPEB funding which is mostly OPEB. EBITDA and other factors provided net inflows of $626 million.
On a year-to-date basis, you can see the benefit of the strong nine months of EBITDA and the additional major sources of cash inflows, including non-core asset sales and the $500 million bond issue. Those cash flows and EBITDAs also impact key financial metrics. Return on equity increased to 30.2% for the first nine months of 2021, nine month 2021 free cash flow less non-controlling interest distributions was negative $51 million due to the second quarter's $500 million pension funding, but was positive $320 million in the third quarter due to the strong EBITDA, partially offset by a three-day increase in days working capital. Most importantly, our key leverage metric proportional adjusted net debt is now below our $2 billion to $2.5 billion target range at $1.7 billion. Working capital has increased in line with expectations, as metal prices continue to rise and now are being joined by Alumina price increases.
Moving to our outlook for the remainder of the year. The full year 2021 outlook is expected to see modest changes. For Bauxite shipments, the expected ranges are decreasing 1 million tons to 49 million tons to 50 million tons due to the Alumar unloader outage in the third quarter. We are expecting improvements on the income statement below the EBITDA line. Depreciation, depletion and amortization is expected to improve $10 million to $665 million, while interest expense is also expected to improve $10 million due to our redemption of the 2026 notes. In the cash flow section, there are three expected changes. Return seeking capital expenditures are expected to be $10 million lower. Payment of prior year taxes has been adjusted $5 million to $30 million and environmental and ARO spending is expected to be $20 million better, down to $120 million for the year.
For the fourth quarter, overall with Alumar refinery production returning close to normal operating levels and if current Aluminum and Alumina index pricing levels persist, we expect another record-setting quarter. However, at the San Ciprian refinery and smelter, the current high energy costs in the country and the strike if both persists through the quarter end are expected to be primary factors decreasing adjusted EBITDA approximately $100 million sequentially and increasing working capital sequentially $120 million. Included in the San Ciprian impacts are in refining, we expect sequentially lower shipments of 86,000 metric ton and an unfavorable EBITDA impact of approximately $15 million. In smelting, we expect sequentially lower shipments of 52,000 metric tons and an unfavorable EBITDA impact of approximately $85 million.
For the rest of the portfolio, adjusted EBITDA in the Bauxite segment is expected to improve $10 million sequentially, primarily due to recovery from the Alumar unloader outage in 3Q 2021. Aside from Index pricing, currency and the San Ciprian impacts that I mentioned, the Alumina segment adjusted EBITDA is expected to be flat sequentially, higher shipments, cost improvements and the partial recovery from the Alumar unloader outage are expected to offset higher raw materials and energy costs.
In the Aluminum segment, again excluding the San Ciprian impact Index pricing and currency impacts and assuming today's spot alumina prices persist, while we expect substantial benefit in the Alumina segment, Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are estimated to increase by $100 million. Higher shipments are expected to offset increased raw materials and production costs, energy related impacts are expected to be comprised of two factors. $30 million as Brazil hydro sales seasonally decline and higher smelter energy costs of $20 million primarily in Norway.
Now let me turn it back to Roy.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
As Bill noted, the Aluminum segment has a significant role in our profitability. The LME Aluminum price was the highest that has been in 13 years and has doubled relative to the low point in the second quarter of 2020. In addition, regional premiums are being influenced by higher transportation costs into deficit markets such as North America and Europe. The continued economic recovery and the tightness of supply have continued to support this LME rally and high regional premiums. We continue to see positive GDP in industrial production across the world's leading economies, which supports Aluminum demand across all major end-use sectors. This year, we expect annual global demand for primary Aluminum to increase approximately 10% relative to 2020 and to surpass the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Strong demand is also being supported by China's continued status as a net importer of primary Aluminum. In 2021, China has curtailed more than 2 million tons of annualized capacity due to power shortages and its enforcement of policies related to energy and the environment. These curtailments represent one of the largest supply cuts the Aluminum industry has ever experienced, particularly given that they are occurring during a year in which we have seen strong demand growth. These supply dynamics are not only occurring in China. There have been recent reports in Europe regarding energy shortages and high power costs that may lead to smelting cuts there as well.
For Alcoa's commercial impacts, we are also seeing significant year-over-year growth for our value-add Aluminum products. In the third quarter, the premiums we earn for value-add products were up relative to the second quarter. Strong demand supported high spot premiums for open volumes. Much of our volume for value-add products is sold in annual contracts. So, only a portion benefits from high spot pricing. However, current market dynamics provide a positive environment for 2022 contract negotiations.
Next, I'd like to comment on what we're seeing in the Aluminum market, which is also on the rise. As we've noted previously, we are the world's largest third-party producer of Alumina and market fundamentals there have also become more favorable over this last month. In the first two months of the quarter, ex-China Alumina prices remained more muted than in Aluminum, high freight costs made shipments to China unattractive and the market outside China had sufficient supply. However, in the last month or so, we have seen a substantial rally in ex-China Alumina pricing. Some unplanned production disruptions outside of China reduced the amount of Alumina available for spot purchases. At the same time, some refineries in China have restricted production to be the same dynamics I discussed earlier in regards to the smelting cuts. Power shortages and policies related to the environment in energy. These dynamics have driven current global supply tightness in Alumina. While China remains short in Alumina as a net importer, it is now competing with smelters outside of China for available Alumina. As a result, prices for Alumina outside of China are at the highest levels they've been since 2018.
Now, let's move to a slide that recap some of the items that Alcoa has been doing to support our business for the future. Our strategic actions over the past two years and our ongoing activities are positioning Alcoa for the future. Two years ago, we announced three key strategic programs. The new operating model, non-core asset sales amd the portfolio review. We've already met the goals on two of these. First, we fully implemented the new operating model and captured the annual savings. Second, we also met the top end of our target for non-core asset sales. The portfolio review, meanwhile, has three years remaining and was designed to improve both the cost structure and sustainability position of our global production assets, focusing primarily on smelting and refining. It considers options for significant improvement, curtailment, closure or divestiture. At this two year mark, we've already addressed nearly half the 1.5 million tons of smelting capacity with a repowering at Portland, the curtailment of Intalco and restarting Alumar.
The announced restart of 268,000 metric tons of smelting capacity in Brazil equates to our share of Alumar's nameplate capacity. It will supply the short Brazilian market and the smelter will be fully powered with renewable energy by 2024. We've earlier reported that 78% of our global smelters are powered by renewables, and we expect that percentage to reach 85% by the conclusion of the portfolio review in 2024. In refining, we've also addressed half of our global goal of 4 million tons of refining capacity with the 2019 closure of the Point Comfort refinery in Texas.
Now, let's move to the right hand side of this slide. In September, we took another step to strengthen our balance sheet and redeemed in full $500 million in senior notes issued at a 7% interest rate that were due in 2026. We used cash on hand to repurchase this debt. A stronger financial position is an outcome of our focus on aligning decisions with our strategic priorities, including our imperative to advance sustainably. Last month, we added even more production facilities to our list of locations certified to the Aluminum Stewardship Initiative, the industry's most comprehensive third-party system to verify responsible production. Today we have 15 global sites certified to ASIs Performance Standard, the latest were two Canadian smelters, ABI and Deschambault. Congratulations to those teams in Quebec for earning these certifications.
Importantly, we also have ASIs Chain of Custody Certification, which allows us to sell ASI certified Bauxite, Alumina and Aluminum. And we've earned a premium on ASI certified products, which we can sell globally. Earlier this month, we also announced the beginning of a joint development project related to the market for high purity alumina or HPA. Industry analysis shows that demand for HPA will be strong with increasing year-over-year demand due to the need for low carbon solutions in transportation and other sectors. Our non-metallurgical alumina, HPA, is used to create a variety of products for a sustainable economy. This includes lithium-ion batteries that are the backbone of clean emissions free electric vehicles and energy efficient LED lighting applications. While we are still at an early stage of development, we believe our process knowledge of Alumina refining can help ensure the operational and financial success of this joint development project.
And more generally, across our alumina refineries, it is important to note that Alcoa has the world's lowest carbon intensity in its global refining system. This too was an advantage now and in the future for our smelter grade and non-metallurgical businesses, both of which are the largest outside of China.
Finally, I am proud of our ambition to reach net-zero by 2050 for Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions across our global operations. Announced earlier this month, this ambition complements our Climate Change policy and existing GHG targets, which we discussed more fully in our Annual Sustainability Report. To work toward this ambition, we are focused on increasing the share of our operations powered by renewable energy and commercializing some of the breakthrough innovations we've discussed previously, such as the ELYSIS technology which eliminates all direct greenhouse gases from the traditional aluminum smelting process and adapting Mechanical Vapor recompression to Alumina refining to further reduce our already low-carbon intensity.
Next, I wanted to quickly highlight the news we announced earlier today. We are proud to initiate this quarterly dividend and authorized a new buyback program. Since Alcoa Corporation's launch nearly five years ago, we've talked about strengthening our company. This announcement is clear evidence of the work that Alcoans across the globe have completed to position the company to succeed not only in the favorable market environment we're seeing now, but through the commodity cycle. Today, Alcoa is stronger than it has been since our inception, and with our current view of the markets and expected cash flows, we believe these programs can be sustained. The decision regarding capital returns aligns with our current capital allocation framework. To review the framework prioritizes maintaining liquidity and investing capital to sustain and improve our operations.
Next, we aim to maximize value creation opportunities across four categories listed in no specific order. One of those, of course, is returning cash to stockholders, which we've demonstrated today. Now, let me briefly highlight the other three value creation opportunities. First, we've made great progress in reducing our debt. As mentioned, our adjusted proportional net debt is now below our target range of $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion. Today, our company has no substantial debt maturities until 2027 and our expected cash pension funding requirements are at their lowest levels. As we've said previously, our net debt may fluctuate, but we intend to maintain a strong balance sheet through this cycle. Second, another focus is the transformation of our portfolio, building on the progress we have already made in this five-year program. Finally, we continue to evaluate value creating growth projects and pursue opportunities that will generate an adequate rate of return.
Now, as we prepare for your questions, I want to summarize a few important items. First, it's a very good time to be in the upstream aluminum business. We have a long position in all three of our segments and the work that we've accomplished while continuing has made us more competitive, enabling us to succeed through the commodity cycle, because of this work we are well positioned to capture benefits from improved markets, including the very healthy aluminum prices that we're currently seeing.
Next, I'm proud to say that Alcoa Corporation is stronger today than any other time. Our strategies are working and our balance sheet is in its best shape ever. This improved financial strength has allowed more flexibility to execute on our capital allocation framework, including the authorization of further returns to our investors. Thank you for your support and trust in Alcoa.
Finally, we are ready for a sustainable future. As we approach our five-year anniversary next month, I'm excited about what's ahead as we move forward as a stronger company that can deliver value to our people, our processes and our products.
Bill and I are now ready to answer your questions. Operator, who do we have our first question?
Questions and Answers:
Operator
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Carlos De Alba of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos De Alba -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
Hello. Good afternoon guys. Congratulations on the quarter. Just a couple of questions. First on the smelters. If you could maybe give a little bit more color as to what else could you guys do in terms of maybe increasing, if you're planning maybe on doing it, reviewing potential restart of the capacity it is quarter [Phonetic] right now. Some of which has been only few quarters when you took action, but the market has changed. So, wonder if there is any potential restarts above and beyond Alumar? And on Alumar, are there -- is there any color on the type of power agreement that you guys were able to secure? Is it renewable power meaning the hydro and why only in 2024 it will be fully sourced without power. And then if I may squeeze another second one on Alumina, particularly the recently announced HBA [Phonetic] project. Could you comment a little bit more about the economics of the project, particularly, maybe, what is the likely spread on prices for these type of Alumina above and beyond the smelter grade Alumina that you've mostly produced? Thank you very much.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Carlos. Thanks for the question. So let me start off and Bill can complement as we go through this. But let me start with your question about smelters. I think the fact that it took us some time to work through the restart of Alumar, I think is a pretty good example of the type of effort that needs to go into any restart. Alumar was a pretty clear decision, because we had access to very competitive power. It also happen to be renewable energy, like you said starting in 2024. It is a very competitive plant and so it sort of checked all the boxes. And then of course, hit the fact that we were all -- that the domestic market inside of Brazil was also assured [Phonetic] so that increases the financial outcomes of that particular decision. Each of the other smelters that we have curtailed right now was curtailed for a very specific reason. And so as we go through those analysis, we obviously look at today's pricing, we look at how that pricing will continue into the future and then connect that back to where we think those particular smelters would be located on the cost curve.
And I think what you should take away from the Alumar decision, is that we are focused not just on being successful in today's environment, but in having a very competitive smelter through all the potential commodity environments in the future. We want it to be successful through that commodity cycle. And so we'll continue to look, there is nothing further that we want to announce right now. We do have more capacity curtailed. However, we would need to find that long -- longer term power that would fit the cost competitiveness criteria that we have.
On your question about Alumar power. The fact is, it takes time to be able to bring it up to speed. And so as we were looking at repowering that facility, we wanted to repower it with the longest timeline possible. We wanted it to be renewable energy. In Brazil, that's very typically hydro in that part of the country. And we wanted that to be ready once that smelter was back up at full capacity. Getting to full capacity is a question of timing and how we plan to move through that. You saw the -- you saw sort of the outline that we had in the original press release and in today's presentation. But it's -- it is without saying what that contract exactly looks like, it is a very competitive rate that we believe allows us to be successful through the commodity cycle.
On your third question, Carlos on HBA, I'm going to let Bill chime in on anything he might like to add. But I think the short answer is that we are in very early stages of developing this project. And so we have an understanding of market, we have an understanding of what we can bring to the technology that our partners are bringing to the table, but we need to prove out that technology and feel a lot more a lot more certain about those outcomes than we are right now, which is why we structured it as it has with a series of options as we go along. So I think you will see more on economics down the road, but really not too much to comment right now.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, I have nothing further to add. I think you covered it well Roy.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Carlos.
Carlos De Alba -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
Thank you very much Roy. Just one clarification. Is it fair to say that going forward, if you were to restart any remaining curtail aluminum production, the type of power, meaning renewal -- it has to be renewable power or not necessarily?
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
We consider the type of energy and how that fits with our short-term, medium-term and long-term environmental criteria as part of any of those decisions. The fact is, is that we've just repowered the Portland facility, which has a goal to move toward more renewable energy, but because it has a relatively short timeline, we were comfortable stepping into that power contract at that time. When you look at Alumar of course, this is a longer power contract and not the fact that it was renewable becomes more and more important. So I know that doesn't specifically answer your question, but it gives you sort of a feel for how we look at ESG criteria and specifically the percentage of renewable power that goes into those contracts as we make those decisions.
Carlos De Alba -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
Thank you Roy and Bill. Congratulations on the results again.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Carlos.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Carlos.
Operator
The next question comes from Emily Chieng of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Emily Chieng -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Hi, Roy and Bill. Congratulations on the quarter. Maybe, I'll start off with a quick question around the capital allocation strategy now. So leverage is in good shape. You've got the capital returns piece in place and you've addressed half of -- roughly half of your smelting capacity portfolio review. Firstly, how do you think about the -- the execution of the buyback. Will it be more systemic or opportunistic in nature? And then the latest thinking around the pensions and potential for annuitization?
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
So, thanks, thanks, Emily. Let me take the second question first and that's around the pensions. Pensions are in much better shape than they have been historically. Global pensions are greater than 90% funded at this point. The US pensions are close to 100% funded. And so the net liability has really significantly been reduced. We still have a fairly large gross liability and we will be looking at opportunities to opportunistically annuitize more of that gross liability. We have moved at least in the US, we've moved the asset portfolio to a more defensive strategy that should inoculate it from large changes in interest rates, but we will be looking at opportunities to annuitize going forward.
As far as capital allocation goes, specifically to your question around timing of the buybacks, we will do that based on the -- our continuing analysis of the market, financial and other factors. And so we'll be doing that over time. I think if you step back and look at where we've come on the capital allocation program, as Roy said, the four prongs, we just now have announced the return to shareholders. So we've executed well on the capital allocation program.
Emily Chieng -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Thanks. That's -- thanks. That's really helpful. And just one follow-up. When you think about the current state of the aluminum markets, what is Alcoa's views around potentially investing in either greenfield capacity or brownfield opportunities, including some production creep at your lower cost assets? I'll leave it at that. Thank you.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Sure. And I can take a first stab at that one Emily. The fact is, is that we are creeping some of our very low cost facilities that have long-term power. If you look at Canada, and those are places where we can creep our technology. It's relatively nuts and bolts. It actually takes a lot of thoughtful approach for all of our engineers on-site and our operators, etc. So we're very much in line with that. When it comes to a greenfield or brownfield, obviously, we need to look at a much longer timeline for aluminum pricing and try and think through supply demand, as we see there seems to be some real structural shifts that are happening inside of aluminum today that's -- so that's certainly strengthens the case. It also connects with the energy market and as we talked about with Carlos, it's a question about renewable energy and as you look at a smelter decision, obviously that becomes immensely important to find something that is both low carbon and renewable.
The third thing that we need to be thinking about is capital costs. We need to solve the capital cost issue between, what capital can you spend and still get a very good financial return on it. And so that's something that, because they were able to construct plants so inexpensively in China, and because of this, this last decade where we had over production, it essentially made it impossible and made every single brownfield or greenfield that's grown up over that time period to be -- to not have gotten the returns that are expected by our stockholders. So we take that very seriously. It takes some time to see how the structural shifts will play out. I would also put into the mix of fact that we're in the midst of developing our ELYSIS technology. And so there is a very real decision between investing in conventional technology when we have what we think will be the preferred solution for zero carbon smelting long into the future. And so that one is the wild card. But I'll tell you it is weighing very heavily in our minds and is a very important project for us.
Emily Chieng -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Thanks for the color Roy.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Emily.
Operator
Next question comes from Alex Hacking of Citi. Please go ahead.
Alex Hacking -- Citi -- Analyst
Yes, thanks Roy and Bill. So first question on San Ciprian. I understand it's obviously a sensitive situation, but are there any deadlines there or dates to reach a resolution? And then second question, bit random, about the shortages of alloying agents, magnesium and so on, does this have any effect on Alcoa or any commentary around that would be helpful? Thanks.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
So, Alex let me cover San Ciprian quickly and then I'll pass over the alloying question over to Bill. So there are no specific dates that we have in mind right now. Alcoa continues to seek a solution for San Ciprian. The fundamental problem, which is the price of power in Spain and which we've seen exacerbated over this last little period with the pretty wild ride that's happening in energy markets inside of Europe. The price of power in Spain, before we hit this crisis has far exceeded what other global smelters are experiencing. And so we've been trying to find a deal with the government that allowed us to address this underlying issue around San Cirpian not being competitive. With that said, we had announced the collective dismissal since then we've -- they've restarted their strike, which is why we have -- we've talked about the financial impacts that has on us. We are now in the midst of an appeal to the decision that was made at the -- in the Galician court. And so all of that, there is very little specificity around when that will be settled. But it is at the very top of our minds. It is obviously a very important financial impact and we will keep you informed as we learn more.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Hi, Alex. Let me take the alloying agents question. Just to put it in perspective, silicon and magnesium are the two alloys that were really -- are currently in a lot of people's minds. We buy about 20,000 metric tons of each of magnesium and silicon. As you know, China accounts for about 80% of the magnesium output and 70% of the global silicon output, and the same dynamics that we're seeing to a large extent in the aluminum industry are occurring in the magnesium and the silicon industry, due to production cuts in China. The good news, though, Alex is that, we pass through the majority of that impacts on to our customers. And we would project that through smart -- either smart buying or customer contracts, we'd be passing through about 95% of the impact of higher magnesium and silicon to our customers.
Alex Hacking -- Citi -- Analyst
Thanks, Bill. If I could just follow-up. Are shortages a concern more so than the ability to pass the price there?
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Shortages are a concern. And our procurement team is actively working on trying to make sure that we have enough material to be able to supply our customers. But shortages are a concern.
Alex Hacking -- Citi -- Analyst
Okay, thanks so much. Appreciate the time.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Alex.
Operator
The next question comes from Lucas Pipes of B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.
Lucas Pipes -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst
Hey, good afternoon. And I'd like to add my congratulations on a good quarter. My first question is in the similar vein, but maybe a bit higher level. Just in terms of aluminum prices today, obviously incredibly strong. Have you tried to kind of tease out, what is demand pull here, what is cost push and where some of these bottlenecks could lead us? Very much appreciate your perspective.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Lucas, let me give you probably a non-answer to this. I think trying to parse out what's being driven by demand, which obviously continues very strong, although we are seeing some issues around supply chain that is causing some of that to pull back a little bit. And we're seeing an incredible change in what's happening on the supply side. And so when you look outside of China, which is probably the less influential on supply, we're starting to see that that European smelters, many of which are tied to market prices are simply not able to continue to operate in times like this and I think we've seen the first couple of steps as a reaction. Of course that's a point in time, that will continue through time, but we'll see where that takes us. So not easy, even with the prices that we have right now, not easy to keep supply when gas prices have increased so much inside of the European Union.
Inside of China, they've seem to have a perfect storm of flood events, of decisions around environmental audits and environmental policies. It's connecting over with their dual control system. I think in the short-term when you look at it, we've seen between 2 million tons and 3 million tons of curtailments that have happened because of the short-term issues. When you start to project that out longer, I think the fact is the policy that China has put into place is what's driving this fundamental change, not just for aluminum today but aluminum longer into the future. And so, when I think about sort of the impacts on pricing right now, I think demand continues to be strong and that's very good, but I think the real structural shift sits very much on the supply side. And is not -- and while you have physical shortages right now and you see that and the inventory is being drained, you see that in what's happening with regional premiums as well, but people are also looking toward the future and saying that there is simply isn't enough new capacity coming online and certainly not enough new capacity being fueled by renewable energy in order to meet the future demand. So I think that to me is -- bodes well both for today's prices, which of course, are very attractive, but also for the long-term structural changes happening in the pricing environment.
Lucas Pipes -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst
Thank you. Thank you very much for that perspective. And just there at the end you touched on my follow-up question. You mentioned this also throughout your earlier comments that, you have access to renewable power is kind of -- is key item for increasing capacity. What role can you play to tackle that. You own renewable energy assets today. Could -- would you expand those? Do you look more to developers to provide that power? How will that bottleneck ease?
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I think it's -- I think the answer is all of the above. We could look at a number of different ways in order to try and debottleneck the process and find renewable energy. I would caution you though, that we're very careful not to subsidize our Aluminum business by building our own renewable energy, and I think you've seen that in Brazil. We need to -- if we're going to build a renewable energy position then we'll need to say whether that's best to put into one of our smelters or in fact better to sell it into the market. We're pretty careful about not mixing our decisions when it comes to those two different types of businesses. However, when you look at how we've been repowering Portland as an example, it will come through power suppliers. When you look at some of the ways that we've repowered our Norwegian plants, has been through partnerships with new wind power facilities.
And so I think the answer is, there is not going to be enough renewable power to go around. There is a lot of demand, there is a lot of new announcements on facilities, but it is incredibly complicated in order to build this renewable power. And so finding those spots where you can smelt aluminum smartly and can buy -- and find those renewable energy contracts is going to be the difficulty, which is what again creates the structural change, but also the other end is going to help define, who will be able to build for the future.
And one more plug for ELYSIS, as you then connect renewable energy into a zero carbon process such as ELYSIS, you can really demonstrate that as we head toward the world, a net zero world by 2050 is those type of solutions that are absolutely necessary to make that possible.
Lucas Pipes -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst
Really, really exciting developments in the industry. I really appreciate your perspective. Thank you.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Lucas.
Operator
The next question comes from Curt Woodworth of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
Thanks, good afternoon Roy and Bill.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Curt.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Hi, Curt.
Curt Woodworth -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
So kind of a follow-up question to Alex on the magnesium and silicon. It does seem like there is a potential for shortages to certainly exist here and we've already seen, and when you look at billet or foundry alloy premiums, I mean they're up dramatically anywhere from 500 ton to well over 1,000 a ton. So it's pretty meaningful and I know that you guys tend to set those contracts on an annual basis. But are you -- do you feel comfortable with your position today? Are you looking to build safety stocks within those alloys? And how do you think that the shortage there is going to play into your negotiations around setting your value-add premiums in the next year? And can you give us any sense for the potential benefit of how those premiums could look next year relative to what you booked this year?
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, so, Curt, globally the value-add products, demand is very strong. We are focused in Europe and North America. And if you go around the globe on the various value-add products, we're seeing strength in slab demand and just about every major area, both in Europe and in North America. Billet, as you said, billet is extremely strong and with some of the curtailments that we've seen in Europe due to the energy situation is taking supply of billet out of the market at a time when demand is very strong. And then foundry, foundry largely is an automotive market. And with the automotive chip shortage we have seen the foundry market fall off a little bit, but we've been able to repurpose a lot of that metal into different markets, and so you don't really see it hitting our results.
As we go into 2022, we use some of that market situation and we will be looking to do as well as we can with value-add premiums in 2022, and we'll be making sure that we try to pass through all the mag and silicon price increases. As far as building stocks of mag and silicon, we clearly are out there making sure that we want to be able to fulfill our customer's needs, we will do the best that we possibly can. But upstream of us, we are starting to see some force majeures declared by mag suppliers. So, we are actively trying to make sure that we can meet our customers' needs going into 2022.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
And Curt I'll just tease out one more point, and I mentioned it during my presentation, but I think its worthwhile reiterating it. At a time like this with increasing premiums, we don't realize all those in the current year, because we don't -- we only sell a portion of our sales on spot. However, this is a great time to see strong premiums, because we're in the midst of our discussions with all of our customers, to set what those prices and premiums will be going into 2022. So it's -- I think that's very good news for our value-added business, not just from the really strong demand and therefore, we can really choose those products that make the most sense for us. But also, it's a good time to be setting premiums now, particularly in North America and Europe.
Curt Woodworth -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on power. I think roughly 55% of your power is LME indexed. I know you highlighted the San Ciprian issue, but can you talk more broadly about power cost inflation through the portfolio over the next couple of quarters, in the event we continue to see this energy shortage persist? Should we continue to expect those levels of headwinds, specifically at San Ciprian and more broadly, how you're thinking about that? Thank you.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Sure Curt. Let me just give you some data points. First, let me address San Ciprian fairly quickly. We said that the site, including the refinery and the smelter, would be about $100 million EBITDA hit in the fourth quarter. That's a combination of two factors. One is the strike, but that's a small earnings impact. The largest factor there is the energy costs and the numbers that we've provided to you, we're assuming about a EUR200 to EUR210 per megawatt-hour cost in Spain. So the energy costs in Europe are not in a position to support smelting in Europe.
If we then look at the rest of our portfolio, as you alluded to, we have some fixed-price, we have some self-generation, we've got roughly 50% that is LME linked. So those LME linkage go up with LME prices. And then we have a little bit of spot pricing in Norway. So if you boil that down, combined, and this is in our additional business consideration stage. When we look at the fourth quarter, we're looking at about a $50 million negative impact from energy, and that breaks down between $30 million of seasonally very strong results in our Brazil hydros, that the prices and volumes will come down in the fourth quarter, and then a $20 million impact from energy outside of San Ciprian.
If I can just step back for a second though, and -- the aluminum segment is expecting much better shipments in the fourth quarter, and some of the higher raw material prices that we're seeing in coke and pitch, we plan on offsetting that, because we think that both for the alumina and the aluminum segment, we will have better volumes in the fourth quarter.
Curt Woodworth -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
Super helpful. Thank you, guys.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks Curt.
Operator
The next question comes from John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Please go ahead.
John Tumazos -- John Tumazos Very Independent Research -- Analyst
Congratulations on all the good times.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, John.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, John.
John Tumazos -- John Tumazos Very Independent Research -- Analyst
Thank you. The first question is the LME aluminum contract, as a reference is at $477 for the spot and $479 for the various future months. It's not perfect, but it's a reasonable benchmark, given all that has been rising dramatically the last six weeks or so. Given the time lags, is 400 too aggressive a guess for the December quarter realization for alumina, first question.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
John, we would typically try to stay away from guesses of pricing in any particular quarter, but API pricing today is sitting at around $482 per ton. If I could give you a little bit of a view on the market, and then you can draw your own conclusion around pricing. We have seen some curtailment of production of refineries in China for all the same reasons that you're reading about in other areas with power cuts and focus on emissions, couple that with a very short Atlantic market because of the Jamalco shutdown, where they had the powerhouse fire, that has shortened up the Atlantic market. And also, we had the Alumar ship unloader issue, which is back up and running, not the unloader itself, but the plant is back up to about 95% capacity.
So combine the two of a China shortage, and a short market in the Atlantic and alumina prices are running up fairly quickly. And as you know, unlike the aluminum market, there is no inventory or very little inventory of alumina. So in the case of a short market of alumina, you typically see very quick and can see very drastic changes in pricing.
John Tumazos -- John Tumazos Very Independent Research -- Analyst
Thank you. Second question, and what I did was, I took the third quarter price revenues minus EBITDA divided by tons to guess. I calculated the third quarter, bauxite was $2.34 per ton, more than last year's average. The alumina, $33 a ton, and the aluminum metal, $0.15 a pound. Given your different guidances, all of those continue to accelerate [Indecipherable] I presume?
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Let me just take on one market at a time, and on the Bauxite side, we're largely internally sourced on Bauxite and year-over-year, we had a change in bauxite pricing, that lowered bauxite pricing into the alumina business. We've shown that during the course of the year. That's what's being reflected in some of the Bauxite segment results. We just talked about the strength of the alumina markets and the aluminum market, given the two factors that I just discussed are -- is very strong. And then, on the alumina side, I think Roy highlighted it pretty well, what's going on in the alumina business. So each of those markets, at this point, with maybe less emphasis on bauxite, is in a pretty good situation for us.
John Tumazos -- John Tumazos Very Independent Research -- Analyst
No, I was referencing the cost per ton or pound.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes. And that's what I was -- to some extent, trying to answer and that is in the case of...
John Tumazos -- John Tumazos Very Independent Research -- Analyst
The markets are strong and the costs too are going to -- well, the cost creep doesn't matter, because we're just doing so well on the revenue side, I guess is what you're saying?
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Well, when we think about cost creep, we should not see any costs creep for bauxite to alumina, because the bauxite is actually cheaper this year going into alumina. On the refining side, we are seeing some [Indecipherable] prices and that is an impact. And then on smelting, it's a combination of the energy and raw materials and we've seen some raw material creep in the third quarter. We'll see a little bit more in the fourth quarter, but as I said in my comments, we anticipate that the volume benefits that we will be driving in the fourth quarter will offset that.
John Tumazos -- John Tumazos Very Independent Research -- Analyst
Thank you very much. It's so great to see things so good. Thank you.
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks John. Nice to update.
Operator
Our final question will come from Michael Dudas of Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Michael Dudas -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing me in at the end here. Roy, through your capital allocation, which certainly I think is very good, going to be very well received and very thoughtful over the violent cycles we've had the last few years. Maybe really touch about maybe long-term capital spending and growth opportunities, without putting out a budget or guidance for future years? How does that flow through, given all that you've talked about today with internal and creep opportunities and certainly -- and I think more so on the new technology, at least as sort of the HPA opportunities. Is there a thought to build up -- capital buildup flexibility with the strong cash flows to support that in the longer -- medium longer-term basis? How should we think about that, and go over this capital allocation strategy? Thank you.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah Mike, I appreciate the question, and there's always space to squeeze you in. So, I think when we step back and we think about where we find ourselves today, it has certainly been a very different situation than 18 months ago. We have opportunities that sit inside of our three businesses; and so, Bauxite, we obviously have the ability to create, if we find the pricing environment supportive, or again if we can use that internally in one of our refineries.
We have a series of medium-sized growth projects, not brownfield, but sort of large creep projects, inside of the refining business in Brazil and Western Australia, that we continue to evaluate. For those, we need to have both the capital costs and an operating cost, but also, a revenue side that we can feel confident, that we're going to get the returns on it. On the smelting side, and we talked already a little bit about this, we have opportunities to create the current assets. So those things I think are somewhat predictable. I think we can explain them very well.
I think your question gets to what comes next? And to me, we've got Elysis is going on. Elysis is going to be this revolutionary technology, that once proven, I think, will set the stage for a brand-new way to smelt. And then we'll have the option of whether we choose to commercialize that in the external market, or whether we use it to move very quickly inside, to retrofit, or to build that next smelter, and it very much depends on what's happening in the broader market, of course, but also, on us meeting the commitments around cost savings and capital cost efficiency.
We're also working on mechanical paper recompression inside of refining. Today, we have the lowest carbon efficiency in all of the refining systems. So, we're very advantaged when it comes to carbon content inside of what we produce. But if we can also solve how to electrify pieces of that refining process and be able to do that in a cost-efficient and competitive manner, it starts to unblock what we can do on the refining side as well.
And so, I think the way that the world is structurally moving, yes, it's great to see the structural shift in the supply demand coming in smelting and alumina, because I think that helps us to feel that this cycle can last longer. But also, when you add in the ESG trends that are happening right now, I think we have an opportunity given our legacy, given our technology, and given what we know about refining and smelting, to really take a big step forward.
And what I can assure you is, is that we'll bring you along for that ride and talk to you about that as time goes forward. So right now, what I'd say is, what we've got are -- really a good set of creep projects and we'll keep you informed as we approve those or as we decide to move forward on them and then we're working on the rest of these items as well and more to come, Mike.
Michael Dudas -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Look forward to that ride, and if we can hire a truck that could take us. Thank you.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Great. That's perfect.
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference over to Roy Harvey for closing remarks.
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Good. Thank you, Andrea. So Bill and I have enjoyed talking to you today. Our entire executive team and the thousands of employees across our global operations are proud of the work that we're doing. What we do, matters! Aluminum is strong, light, recyclable, the right material for a sustainable future; and we are the right company to deliver. Next month will mark our five year anniversary as an independent company, and we've made significant progress over that time. We're excited to talk about how we'll leverage this strong foundation for the future and we'll give you a better answer, Mike, on November 9th, when we plan to hold a Virtual Investor Day. At that event, I'll be joined by other members of my executive team to discuss various topics, including our markets, strategies, and the technologies that we envision for the future. The specific details for that Investor Day event will be shared via a press release next week.
So, I look forward to talking with many of you soon at that upcoming event on November 9th and until then, thank you once again for joining our call today, and please stay safe and healthy. Good night.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks]
Duration: 62 minutes
Call participants:
James Dwyer -- Vice President, Investor Relations
Roy C. Harvey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
William F. Oplinger -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Carlos De Alba -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
Emily Chieng -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Alex Hacking -- Citi -- Analyst
Lucas Pipes -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst
Curt Woodworth -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst
John Tumazos -- John Tumazos Very Independent Research -- Analyst
Michael Dudas -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
More AA analysis
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This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-14 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Corp. Q3 adjusted earnings Beat Estimates
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(RTTNews) - Below are the earnings highlights for Alcoa Corp. (AA):
-Earnings: $337 million in Q3 vs. -$49 million in the same period last year. -EPS: $1.76 in Q3 vs. -$0.26 in the same period last year. -Excluding items, Alcoa Corp. reported adjusted earnings of $391 million or $2.05 per share for the period. -Analysts projected $1.80 per share -Revenue: $3.11 billion in Q3 vs. $2.37 billion in the same period last year.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-14 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Q3 Results Beat Street View, To Buyback $500 Mln Shares; Stock Up 5%
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(RTTNews) - Shares of Alcoa Corp. (AA) are gaining over 5% in extended session on Thursday after the aluminum producer reported a third-quarter profit and revenues that trounced Wall Street's estimates, reflecting an increase in aluminum and alumina prices. The company also announced an initiation of quarterly dividend and stock buyback of $500 million.
Pittsburgh-based Alcoa reported third-quarter profit of $337 million or $1.76 per share, compared to last year's loss of $49 million or $0.26 per share last year.
Excluding one-time items, earnings for the quarter were $391 million or $2.05 per share, compared to last year's loss of $218 million or $1.17 per share. On average, 9 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of $1.80 per share.
Revenues for the quarter rose to $3.11 billion from $2.37 billion a year ago. Analysts had a consensus revenue estimate of $2.93 billion. Revenue growth were driven by higher aluminum and alumina prices as well as increase premiums for value-added product sales.
"The strategic work we've been implementing across our Company has helped us effectively capture the benefits from very strong market fundamentals and deliver another excellent quarter with record profitability," said Alcoa President and CEO Roy Harvey.
Alumina shipments dropped to 2.43 million metric tons from 2.55 million metric tons last year. Aluminum shipments slipped to 722 thousand metric tons from 767 thousand metric tons last year. Bauxite shipments dropped to 1.5 million dry metric tons from 1.6 million last year.
Average price per metric ton of alumina increased to $312 from $274 last year, while aluminum's average price rose to $3,124 per metric ton from $1,904 per metric ton last year.
Looking forward to 2021, Alcoa continues to expect a strong 2021 based on the continued economic recovery and increased demand for aluminum in all end markets.
The company's 2021 shipment outlook for the Alumina and Aluminum segments remains unchanged with Alumina projected at 14.1 to 14.2 million metric tons and Aluminum expected to be 2.9 to 3.0 million metric tons.
Alcoa also announced the initiation of a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock and a new $500 million share repurchase program. The first quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share will be paid on November 19 to stockholders of record as of October 29.
AA closed Thursday's trading at $48.60, up $0.20 or 0.41%, on the NYSE. The stock further gained $2.54 or 5.23% in the after-hours trading.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-14 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Q3 21 Earnings Conference Call At 5:00 PM ET
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(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corp. (AA) will host a conference call at 5:00 PM ET on October 14, 2021, to discuss Q3 21 earnings results.
To access the live webcast, log on to https://investors.alcoa.com/events-and-presentations/events-calendar/default.aspx
To listen to the call, dial +1 (877) 883-0383 (US) or +1 (412) 902-6506 (International), Conference ID: 1779140.
For a replay call, dial +1 (877) 344-7529 (US) or +1 (412) 317-0088 (International), Access Code: 10160235.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-14 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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After-Hours Earnings Report for October 14, 2021 : AA, DCT, TACO
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The following companies are expected to report earnings after hours on 10/14/2021. Visit our Earnings Calendar for a full list of expected earnings releases.
Alcoa Corporation (AA)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2021. The metal production company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 4 analysts that follow the stock is $1.85. This value represents a 258.12% increase compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year AA has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 10.37%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2021 Price to Earnings ratio for AA is 7.57 vs. an industry ratio of 13.20.
Duck Creek Technologies, Inc. (DCT)is reporting for the quarter ending August 31, 2021. The internet software company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 3 analysts that follow the stock is $-0.01. This value represents a 92.86% increase compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year DCT has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 166.67%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the Price to Earnings ratio for DCT is 0.00 vs. an industry ratio of 85.70.
Del Taco Restaurants, Inc. (TACO)is reporting for the quarter ending September 30, 2021. The restaurant company's consensus earnings per share forecast from the 4 analysts that follow the stock is $0.10. This value represents a 37.50% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. In the past year TACO has beat the expectations every quarter. The highest one was in the 2nd calendar quarter where they beat the consensus by 33.33%. Zacks Investment Research reports that the 2021 Price to Earnings ratio for TACO is 18.67 vs. an industry ratio of -3.70, implying that they will have a higher earnings growth than their competitors in the same industry.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-13 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Aluminum Price Nearing $3,000 – What’s The Impact On Alcoa Stock?
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Alcoa stock (NYSE: AA) has seen a 45% jump in the last six months and currently trades at $46 per share. The rally was mainly driven by a significant rise in global aluminum price, which is just shy of $3,000/ton. The price of aluminum per ton has gone up from $2,250 to $2,958 in the last six months, reflecting a rise of over 30%. If you look at the rise in iron ore price over the last one year, it is up almost 60%. The gradual lifting of lockdowns, widening coverage of vaccines against Covid-19, stimulus measures, and new infrastructure plan in the U.S. have led to optimism in the markets of faster economic recovery. The rise in aluminum prices has also helped Alcoa record its highest profitability since the time the old Alcoa was split into two entities – Arconic and present-day Alcoa, in 2016, with a net income margin of 11% and EPS of $1.63 in Q2 2021. The company is likely to maintain such elevated levels of EPS in the Q3 2021 earnings, due this week. Improving financials and a sharp rise in iron ore prices have led to general optimism in the market about the company’s near-term potential, thus leading to a 45% jump in the stock price. But will Alcoa’s stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely?
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last five years, returns for AA stock are likely to be over 8% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing a 45% rise over the previous six-month (126 trading days) period. Also, there is a 63% chance of the stock giving positive returns over the next one month. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding AA stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Alcoa stock price forecast after a rise or fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day! For additional details about Alcoa historical returns and return comparison to peers, see Alcoa (AA) Stock Return.
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF AA stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, AA stock moves an average of 3.3%.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of AA Stock Movements:
Q1: Is the price forecast for Alcoa stock higher after a drop?
Answer:
Consider two situations,
Case 1: Alcoa stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Alcoa stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the price forecast for Alcoa stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
AA stock fares better after Case 2, with an expected return of 3.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an expected return of 5.9% for Case 2. This implies a price forecast of $47.45 in Case 1 and a figure of $48.73 in Case 2 using AA market price of $46.03 on 10/11/2021.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an expected return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the expected return for the S&P 500 after a rise or drop.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the forecast for Alcoa stock is likely to changes after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Q2: Does patience pay?
Answer:
If you buy and hold Alcoa stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For AA stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Q3: What about the stock price forecast after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer:
The expected return after a rise is understandably lower than after a drop as detailed in Q1. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
AA stock returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Alcoa stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.
Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-10 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Weekly Preview: Earnings to Watch This Week (AA, JPM, WBA, WFC)
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A
lthough stocks ended Friday lower, the impressive rebound seen from earlier in the week suggests investors are still optimistic about risk assets despite recent concerns about global economic growth amid the Delta variant. And it’s not hard to understand why. With interest rates still at record lows, stocks are still the surest way to counter rising inflation.
But with the third quarter earnings season kicking off this coming week, there’s still the question of whether revenue and earnings growth expectations are well placed. On Friday, labor data showed the U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than had been expected in September, raising the question of whether the Fed can follow through with its tapering plans if it’s not supported by employment gains. The central bank has sought to scale back (or unwind) its easy money policies before the end of the year.
On Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 8.69 points, or 0.03%, to close at 34,746.25. Tech giant such as Apple (AAPL), Salesforce (CRM), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) gave back some of the gains they produced in the previous session. The S&P 500 gave up 8.42 points, or 0.19%, to end the session at 4,391.34, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.51%, or 74.48 points to finish at 14,579.54.
Nasdaq has shown some weakness over the past two weeks amid the steepening yield curve as bonds sold off, which has pressured the FAANGs, namely Facebook (FB), Apple and Amazon (AMZN). Even after the recent market selloff, stocks aren’t cheap when compared to the S&P 500’s historical metrics such as price-to-sales and price-to-earnings. In part, this is because on Thursday, the Dow rose 338 points, or 0.98%, to 34,755, the S&P 500 increased 36 points, or 0.83%, to 4,400, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 152 points, or 1.05%, to 14,654.
For the week, the Dow gained 1.2%, its largest percent gain in almost four months. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%. It appears investors’ focus has turned to the third quarter earnings season. As such, it will take impressive revenue and earnings beats to keep the momentum going. The market will get some confirmation once companies start issuing guidance, presumably outlooks that will be far more optimistic than they were a year ago. Here are this week’s names to keep an eye on.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - Reports before the open, Wednesday, Oct. 13
Wall Street expects JPMorgan to earn $2.97 per share on revenue of $29.72 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter when earnings came to $3.09 per share on revenue of $29.15 billion.
What to watch: Without question, JPMorgan has established a well-deserved reputation as being the best-executing bank not only among its peer group, but one of the best-run banks in the world. Driven by its ongoing investments in areas like technology, marketing, the bank’s share price has outperformed its competitors over the past six months and twelve months. And given its organic expansion initiatives to develop new branches/loan offices, these growth trends are poised to continue. But with the stock trading more than 25% higher than pre-pandemic levels, all of this good news I’ve just listed are known by the market evidenced by 34% year to date rise in JPMorgan stock, compared to 17% rise in the S&P 500 index. What additional catalysts, whether near term or long term, will drive JPM stock higher, particularly in the low-interest rate environment? That is the answer the market will listen for on Wednesday.
Alcoa (AA) - Reports after the close, Thursday, Oct. 14
Wall Street expects Alcoa to earn $1.79 per share on revenue of $2.93 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter when it posted a loss of $1.17 per share on revenue of $2.23 billion.
What to watch: Shares of the aluminum giant have been one of the bright spots in the materials sector, rising almost 50% over the past six months and is now up 104% year to date, crushing the 28% rise in the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME). The rise in metal stocks have been driven by optimism surrounding the Biden administration’s infrastructure spending plan aimed at repairing the country’s airports, roads and bridges, among other projects. How much of that money will come to Alcoa? Aluminum is used in a broad range of industrial and consumer end markets. And the commodity is enjoying a strong run as the global economy swings back into motion. As a result, Alcoa last quarter posted its twelfth consecutive quarterly profit beat, thanks to improving aluminum business. Q2 revenue rose 32% year over year to $2.83 billion, beating expectations by about 9%. On a segmental basis, both alumina and aluminum posted strong revenue growth, with the latter rising 43% year over year to $2.1 billion. While there appears to be support for higher aluminum prices, the company on Thursday must speak positively about the demand/supply outlook for the next several quarters to keep Alcoa stock in high demand as it has been.
Walgreens (WBA) - Reports before the open, Thursday, Oct. 14
Wall Street expects Walgreens to earn $1.02 per share on revenue of $33.28 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter when earnings came to 91 cents per share on $34.75 billion in revenue.
What to watch: Shares of Walgreens have been under pressure of late, falling some 14% over the past six months, including a 6% decline in thirty days. Despite its scale and global reach, the company’s gross margins have been on a steady decline from just under 30% a decade ago to 20% over the trailing 12 months. This headwind is driven by, among other things, ongoing reimbursement pressures related to generic drugs and the growth in negotiating leverage that PBMs (pharmacy benefit managers) have over retail pharmacies. Nevertheless, the pharmacy chain has administered over nine million COVID tests and over 25 million vaccines to date with 95% of its locations are administering shots. What’s more, the company’s revenue showed considerable strength in the most-recent quarter, rising 12% year over year to t $34 billion, topping Street estimates by $560 million. Operating more than 9,000 retail locations across America, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, Walgreens shares are poised to bounce back and the company stands to benefit immensely from the increasing customer traffic which is likely to lead not only to higher sales, but also stronger profit margins.
Wells Fargo (WFC) - Reports before the open, Thursday, Oct. 14
Wall Street expects Wells Fargo to earn 99 cents per share on revenue of $18.4 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter when earnings were 42 cents per share on revenue of $17.97 billion.
What to watch: Bank stocks have outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index in the third quarter, driven by rising interest rates. Among the group, Wells Fargo stock has been a hot commodity, rising some 20% over the past six months, including 10% gains in thirty days. With the stock now up 58% year to date, besting the 17% rise in the S&P 500 index, the market appears more willing to look beyond the bank’s legacy issues and focusing on long-term sustainability. While there are still plenty of challenges for Wells Fargo, including the fact that it has to balance much-needed cost cuts with revenue/business growth, the bank has demonstrated meaning operational improvements. As it stands, Wells Fargo's return now appears more realistic compared with other large banks. Not only has Wells Fargo’s charge-offs and core provisioning improved over the past few quarters, metrics such as adjusted expenses are also trending in the right direction, helping to deliver beat on the bottom lines. On Thursday the bank’s results will answer the question as to whether a successful transition from regulatory remediation and turnaround to core growth is sustainable in the near term.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-08 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Australian carbon offset prices hit record high in polluters' spree
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By Sonali Paul
MELBOURNE, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Australia's carbon offset prices have jumped 75% to a record high this year in a buying spree by major polluters who need offsets after exceeding emissions levels set by the government.
The unexpected surge in demand to meet a February regulatory deadline amid a temporary shortage of credits has driven prices higher. They could spike even further if Australia bows to international pressure to tighten its emissions reduction pledge for 2030 ahead of a UN climate summit which starts on Oct. 31.
Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices hit A$29.50 ($21.51) a tonne this week, up from A$16.52 at the start of the year, data from research firm Reputex and Jarden showed.
Australia's conservative government is also facing global pressure to set a net zero emissions target for 2050 ahead of the Glasgow climate summit, which would impact the offset market over a longer term.
"There's unanticipated demand creating a scramble for credits," said Reputex's director of research, Bret Harper.
Major miners like Anglo American AAL.L and metal processors like Alcoa's AA.N Portland aluminium smelter, which have been emitting above baselines set under Australia's emissions "safeguard mechanism", have had to buy ACCUs to surrender to the government to offset their excesses.
Anglo American's emissions have climbed as it digs deeper underground into coal seams that contain more methane. It captures around 65% of the methane produced at its mine and uses it to generate electricity, and is also pursuing new technology to meet a goal of net zero by 2040, a company spokesperson said.
"Where we have exceeded baselines due to geological or operational issues, and in ensuring the safety of our people, we have proactively purchased ACCUs as offsets, although under multi-year averaging arrangements, we may not require all of them," the spokesperson said in emailed comments.
The Clean Energy Regulator, which issues ACCUs, said it expects to issue a record 17 million ACCUs this year, representing 17 million tonnes of carbon emissions, up from 16 million last year.
While there is a shortage now, ACCU supply is set to grow as carbon brokers create more offsets by teaming up with farmers for reforestation, avoided deforestation and soil carbon projects. The government last week also approved carbon capture and storage projects to generate ACCUs.
The National Farmers Federation (NFF), though, says farmers should be careful about tying up land in carbon sequestration projects when carbon offset prices are so low in Australia compared to elsewhere in the world and they have to split proceeds with brokers and developers.
"While we're pro-choice, we don't want the farm sector to give up land for everyone else who's a carbon emitter," said Warwick Ragg, the NFF's general manager for natural resource management.
European Union (EU) carbon prices have soared this year to more than 60 euros ($69.39) a tonne, more than triple the offsets in Australia, spurred by the EU's new target to cut carbon emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030.
Harper said demand for Australia's carbon offsets will rise over the long run, whether or not the government sets a net zero target, as major companies with their own carbon neutral targets find there is limited technology to meet them.
"Demand for these credits just keeps going up and up and up as more entities realise what it's going to take to get to net zero. I think demand will do nothing but increase broadly," Harper said.
($1 = 0.8647 euros)
($1 = 1.3712 Australian dollars)
($1 = 6.4496 yuan)
(Reporting by Sonali Paul; Editing by Tom Hogue)
((Sonali.Paul@thomsonreuters.com; +61 407 119 523;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-06 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Reports After the Close on 10/14 -- Options Contracts Expire the Next Day
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According to NextEarningsDate.com, the Alcoa (NYSE: AA) AA next earnings date is projected to be 10/14 after the close, with earnings estimates of $1.75/share on $2.91 Billion of revenue. Looking back, the recent Alcoa earnings history looks like this:
PERIOD EARNINGS DATE EARNINGS
Q2 2021 7/15/2021 1.490
Q1 2021 4/15/2021 0.790
Q4 2020 1/20/2021 0.260
Q3 2020 10/14/2020 -1.170
Q2 2020 7/15/2020 -0.020
The company has an impressive long-term earnings per share chart:
And with quarterly revenue that looks like this:
But earnings reports can often uniquely bring abrupt volatility to a stock, in either direction, as investors digest the fundamental details. And that volatility can be a stock options trader's dream come true — so such traders will be interested to know that Alcoa has options available that expire October 15th.
Visit StockOptionsChannel.com to investigate the AA options chain on either the puts side or the call side, for further ideas.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-06 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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World's largest miners pledge net zero carbon emissions by 2050
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Repeats Tuesday's story to more subscribers, no changes to text
LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The world's top miners on Tuesday committed to a goal of net zero direct and indirect carbon emissions by 2050 or sooner, the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) said.
"ICMM members' collective commitment to net zero scope one (direct) and two (indirect) greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is a pivotal moment in our history," CEO Rohitesh Dhawan said in an open letter signed by the 28 chiefs of the world's largest miners.
The announcement comes before next month's U.N. climate gathering that aims to achieve more ambitious climate action from the nearly 200 countries that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming.
Many miners including Anglo American AAL.L, Rio Tinto RIO.L and BHP BHPB.L, under pressure from environmental activists and shareholders, have already committed to net zero by 2050 in direct and indirect emissions.
The collective commitment, however, "represents a joint ambition from companies that make up one third of the global mining and metals industry," the ICMM said.
Its 28 members, whose operations span 650 sites over 50 countries, will report annually on their progress to decarbonise annually.
Mining has a "decarbonisation challenge" because the sector has to reduce emissions while producing metals, such as nickel and copper, that are vital to a lower-carbon economy, said Konrad von Szczepanski, Managing Director and Partner at Boston Consulting Group.
Direct and indirect emissions will be lowered by accelerating the use of renewable energy and reducing or eliminating the use of diesel trucks, Dhawan told Reuters.
Targets for scope three emissions, which includes those from customers processing iron ore to steel, should be set "if not by the end of 2023, as soon as possible."
The technology to produce carbon-free steel has not yet been proven.
Glencore GLEN.L, the world's largest supplier of seaborne thermal coal, has committed to a scope three goal mainly by running down its coal mines.
ICMM members, which include Barrick Gold ABX.TO and Alcoa, have collectively cut emissions by 6% between 2016-2018, Dhawan said.
(Reporting by Zandi Shabalala and Clara Denina; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Kirsten Donovan)
((zandi.shabalala@tr.com;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-05 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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World's largest miners pledge net zero carbon emissions by 2050
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Adds analyst comment
LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The world's top miners on Tuesday committed to a goal of net zero direct and indirect carbon emissions by 2050 or sooner, the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) said.
"ICMM members' collective commitment to net zero scope one (direct) and two (indirect) greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is a pivotal moment in our history," CEO Rohitesh Dhawan said in an open letter signed by the 28 chiefs of the world's largest miners.
The announcement comes before next month's U.N. climate gathering that aims to achieve more ambitious climate action from the nearly 200 countries that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming.
Many miners including Anglo American AAL.L, Rio Tinto RIO.L and BHP BHPB.L, under pressure from environmental activists and shareholders, have already committed to net zero by 2050 in direct and indirect emissions.
The collective commitment, however, "represents a joint ambition from companies that make up one third of the global mining and metals industry," the ICMM said.
Its 28 members, whose operations span 650 sites over 50 countries, will report annually on their progress to decarbonise annually.
Mining has a "decarbonisation challenge" because the sector has to reduce emissions while producing metals, such as nickel and copper, that are vital to a lower-carbon economy, said Konrad von Szczepanski, Managing Director and Partner at Boston Consulting Group.
Direct and indirect emissions will be lowered by accelerating the use of renewable energy and reducing or eliminating the use of diesel trucks, Dhawan told Reuters.
Targets for scope three emissions, which includes those from customers processing iron ore to steel, should be set "if not by the end of 2023, as soon as possible."
The technology to produce carbon-free steel has not yet been proven.
Glencore GLEN.L, the world's largest supplier of seaborne thermal coal, has committed to a scope three goal mainly by running down its coal mines.
ICMM members, which include Barrick Gold ABX.TO and Alcoa, have collectively cut emissions by 6% between 2016-2018, Dhawan said.
(Reporting by Zandi Shabalala and Clara Denina; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Kirsten Donovan)
((zandi.shabalala@tr.com;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-05 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Alcoa Stock Popped 10% in September
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What happened
When shares of aluminum mining-giant Alcoa (NYSE: AA) surged at the end of August, I expected the momentum to continue, given the reasons behind the rally. The aluminum stock didn't disappoint: It gained 10.3% in the month of September, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
So what
The strength in prices of base metals like aluminum started to wane in mid-August after China reported lower-than-expected growth in industrial production for June. Some industry experts even called it the beginning of the end of the commodities bull run.
Image source: Getty Images.
Aluminum prices, however, sprinted even higher in the following weeks and hit 13-year highs of $3,000 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange in the second week of September. This occurred after a military coup in Guinea fueled fears of a supply shortfall in bauxite, which is a key ore for aluminum. The West African country owns the largest bauxite reserves in the world.
This development sent aluminum stocks soaring, with Alcoa, in particular, attracting the attention from multiple analysts:
Credit Suisse raised its price target to $56 a share.
Argus upgraded its price target to $58 per share.
Deutsche Bank upped its price target to $60 a share.
Riley raised its price target to $51 a share.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $62 a share.
Alcoa shares are trading at around $49 a share at the time of this writing.
Now what
In what can be seen as a sign of the kind of demand Alcoa foresees, the company restarted an aluminum smelter in Brazil in September that was lying idle since 2015. Alcoa expects the smelter to be fully operational next year.
Alcoa also partnered with Australia-based FYI Resources to enter the high-purity alumina market. High-purity alumina is an indispensable raw material for synthetic sapphire, which is used in semiconductors and LED lights, among other things, and more recently is being used in lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles.
With demand for both semiconductors and lithium-ion batteries soaring, Alcoa's partnership is clearly an attempt to diversify beyond traditional aluminum into hot markets. The company will own a 65% stake in the project and expects to start construction by 2024.
Meanwhile, aluminum prices continue to hover around multiyear highs, so Alcoa could very well deliver bumper third-quarter numbers on October 14. Alcoa recorded its highest-ever profits in the second quarter, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does an encore on the 14th. Keep an eye out.
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Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-10-05 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Under-the-Radar Aerospace Stocks
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On this episode of Industry Focus: Energy, host Nick Sciple is joined by Motley Fool contributor Lou Whiteman to answer a question from the listener mailbag and take a look at three under-the-radar aerospace stocks
To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. To get started investing, check out our quick-start guide to investing in stocks. A full transcript follows the video.
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This video was recorded on September 30, 2021.
Nick Sciple: Welcome to Industry Focus. I'm Nick Sciple. Today, Motley Fool contributor Lou Whiteman joins me to take a look at some Aerospace stocks that are flying under the radar. Lou, welcome back on the podcast.
Lou Whiteman: Glad to be here.
Sciple: Great to have you here. We originally planned to maybe do This show last week. But you had a little bit of a busy week.
Whiteman: I got to find out the fun of 100-year-old cast-iron pipe leading out to the sewer and what that means for homeowners and on an unplanned bill. Yes. No, I was spending money, not making money most of last week.
Sciple: When you go shopping for houses you're typically looking at the stuff that's above the ground and that's really what's your fall in love with. Little do you know you're also are buying all that stuff underneath the ground and sometimes that comes back to bite you. Hopefully, all home improvement work is done. But we'll see how it goes.
Whiteman: Hopefully, yes. Thanks for joining us, you'll be there next. But yeah, all I want is flushing toilets. Is that too much to ask.
Sciple: That's a very important task. Getting into our main topic for the show. We are going to talk about Aerospace stocks that comes in response to an email from our listener, Alan, who wrote us at industryfocus@fool.com. He said, "I began working at Alcoa Howmet castings in 2006, they acquired several companies to bolster their share in the Aerospace market. This was then spun off into Arconic a few years later. Now, in 2021 we find ourselves spun-off again into the Howmet Aerospace (NYSE: HWM). At the low point of the pandemic, our sales were cut nearly in half. Today, we are back to pre-pandemic levels. This is just the plant I work in, making turbine blades for jet engines. He's like, "Our thoughts on the broader Aerospace segment and outlooks going forward." Says PS, He's kept all of his stocks and they've all done well. Speaking about how Matt just brought to mind for me, there is a lot of Aerospace stocks probably don't talk about enough. But before we get into some of these companies, specifically Howmet, we will start with. When you look at the broader Aerospace segment at large, Alan asked about the outlook for the broader Aerospace segment going forward. You had to zoom out and give the 10,000 foot view, if you will, to use a pun. What do you think about the segment today?
Whiteman: Yes, exactly. The aerospace companies provide your view from 10,000 feet. Broadly, aerospace is about two sides for commercial and defense. Commercial is the Boeing Airbus (NYSE: BA) The airplanes that take us from point A to point B. Then over defense, to some extent the planes there for us, but a lot of times when you hear it used, it's just defense companies and there are many different things. It's been a bad couple of years as we know because of COVID, however, the future for air travel, especially on the commercial side of it because most of what we're talking about today is commercial, the future is bright. This is a world where the developing world is developing. There's a lot of demand from all ports of the world. The international trade group still has a 20-year forecast of 10-15% annualized growth. Boeing thinks it will sell. It sees opportunity to sell $9 trillion worth of planes over the next decade. COVID has eaten into This business in the near-term but there is still a lot to be bullish about in terms of commercial aerospace and demand for travel.
Sciple: People like to get out of their houses. They like to travel. To the extent they are allowed to and feel safe to do so. I think that long term trend is still intact and these companies really help service that. Also you mentioned the defense side. That's really aircraft carriers are the most important shit these days. Why? Because planes are the most important tool as far as we're fighting. Maybe taking that 10,000 foot view, let's now maybe zoom in on a few aerospace companies that probably don't get the headlines that a lot of others do. The first one Alan mentioned, Howmet Aerospace, that's company that he is connected with. He gave us the pre-history, lots of spins here. What's the pre-story here with This company?
Whiteman: This is a fascinating story and Alan, I'm so happy for you that you're doing well with This because This has been a frustration for so long. If we have to go back about 10 years to Alcoa, the aluminum manufacturer. They were very much a commodity company that ebbed and flowed with the commodity cycle. Their CEO had the idea of, let's buy some of the parts that are made with aluminum. Those parts are profitable or not-profitable, whether aluminum's at a dollar or $500 a unit. This way we can get some of the cyclicality out of their stock. Unfortunately, Alcoa announced This to the world that they were doing This. They honestly did a poor job overpaying for assets and then they get almost no work to integrate them or to make This into a company. When the stock price didn't improve, Alcoa and Arconic split out. Alcoa went back to being a commodity player and Arconic was supposed to be finished products. The CEO that screwed up the initial plan went with Arconic and screwed that up further, if I'm going to be honest. They finally got rid of him. They brought in good management and that management decided, let's spin this out further and just have a aerospace-focused business. The legacy Arconic is now other finished products, a lot of auto. But what is left was This really interesting group of assets that are very important. Howmet makes a lot of the metal parts. We're talking fasteners. We're talking just components, little things that are essential for aircraft engines. It's a great set of assets that was frankly mismanaged for the better part of a decade. Alan stuck in there. I think it's an interesting story to look at because there was always a gem of a company now and they finally have a management team that's polishing that gem.
Sciple: Through all these spin outs and all these troubles, we finally boiled it down to: there's some good stuff left here in This Howmet company. Why in particular are these assets so attractive? Is it margins or the recurring nature of their use? What makes them particularly attractive?
Whiteman: It's a mass production. We'll get to that too, the downside, the risk of the stock. But yet This is about a five-billion-dollar maker, of like I said, mostly metal components. A large part of it is what goes into the engine. Above about 40% of the business is commercial aerospace, 20% defense, and then they had some energy and other transport. Nearly half of their total sales go into engine parts, an engine could be definitely the most expensive part of a plane. The interesting thing about This business, partially because of COVID. It's all aerospace revenue declined as a total portion. They've been trying to diversify the 787 Dreamliner, Boeing's plastic plane. They make a lot of engine parts for that. The Dreamliner has struggled so too have companies that supply to Dreamliner. They have been looking to diversify and actually I think that the aerospace assets valuable. But I think there is a lot they can do in other areas and it's exciting. They are mostly original equipment. They aren't as big as spare parts, the so-called aftermarket as some of the companies we'll talk about today. There tends to be more margin pressure on that but it's also reliable business and steady business, especially when times are good and post-COVID when we're actually making planes and filling orders.
Sciple: When you supply these OEM components, would you say these customers or these businesses that are on the OEM side may be more subject to cyclicality than the replacement part businesses?
Whiteman: They can be. You see both sides there. You see more of the boom side too though, so you have good times when things are up. The aftermarket tends to be more steady and more reliable. Yeah, you do have a little bit more of a cyclical play. But look, there is real long-term demand. We mentioned Boeing's nine trillion-dollar market. It is a market that ebbs and flows, but it's also a great market to be in for the long term.
Sciple: If you look at the stock, I think the market probably agrees. You mentioned how 2020 is a challenging time for the stock will post-spin. It's up about over 150% versus just about 80% for the markets, about doubling performance of the market. What do you make of it is performance so far and where it can go from here?
Whiteman: It's an interesting stock. It's not one that I am tempted to buy at this level. I almost bought it way back during COVID and I really wish I had because I really like the assets. It's a reasonable valuation here, but enterprise value about 20 times EBITDA. We're going to talk about a company in a second that has doubled that. Even Hexcel may be a better comparison because they aren't valued like that. They're even trading at discounts with them. The issue for this business is that you are in the middle of a complex supply chain and will you have pricing power? Some of these past managements, which admittedly again, I don't think they were all stars, but they complain this was deflationary business that you're never going to see pricing. Part of that, maybe excusing bad performance, but they have a point. One of their primary competitors is Precision Castparts, which is a very well-run company that is now owned by Berkshire Hathaway. It was always a great company and now it has Berkshire's assets and resources. It also doesn't have that quarter-to-quarter pressure. It's a good company in a tough business. I think the stock can perform, but I don't know if fits. I like other stocks we're going to talk about as overachievers better than this company right now.
Sciple: It may grow with the market, but you don't see it being the star of the class if you will.
Whiteman: Yeah, that's a good way to put it.
Sciple: We mentioned earlier how that emerged from a more complicated business and really boiled down to these really attractive aerospace parts. We might be with this company we're going to talk about now in the earlier parts of that stages before maybe the aerospace parts get bought out. This one is Ball Corp (NYSE: BLL). What can you tell us about Ball Corp and where they plug into aerospace?
Whiteman: Ball Corp, I think most people know them for the iconic mason jars that they are mostly still a maker of soda cans, packaging, things like that. They have an aerospace unit though that dates back to World War II. A need to diversify and just a real opportunistic management team that saw an opportunity and went for it. Aerospace is a small part of what Ball does. It's a big company. It has about 13% of 3.5 billion in revenue in the most recent quarter, but it is a substantial and growing part. The backlog is about three billion dollars, five billion if you count orders that haven't been funded yet but should come in. Ironic here because given Ball is a soda can maker, this is probably the least metal-focused business of the three aerospace we're going to talk about. They do make some metal parts, but mostly they are defense, electronics, and space. A lot of sensors, a lot of antennas, big testing business, and engineering business, the last big contract they saw was a $200 million Air Force steel to develop ways to foil cyberattacks on fighter jets. It's always been an opportunistic business. They do very little M&A. If they want to grow outside their core competency, they're going to buy it. Ball has been a very acquisitive company by basically consolidating its core business. A lot of it is organic and just seeing opportunities using the cash they have and investing that cash wisely. I think it's a neat little business that I mean, for a radar company, it is under the radar, but you don't think of it as an aerospace business. But there is a lot to like there.
Sciple: It's one of these where you have this high-tech space, adjacent company, embedded inside this really boring packaging maker. You don't think of soda cans as high-tech at all or mason jars is like the opposite. You get that if you want that farmhouse feel in your house, so you go and get some Ball mason jars. Is this a company you think there's a case to be made to spin out the aerospace business and get a higher multiple?
Whiteman: It's still a relatively small business, so I don't know if the case is there yet. The stock hasn't been a great performer, let's be honest. I looked it up, the stock is down about 4% year-to-date. It's the worst-performing one we've talked about here. Maybe, but I think they would have to grow the business further. It wouldn't be very tax-efficient, but I'm sure if they could find a tax-efficient way to sell it, they could take a really good value that way. I don't want to compare it to Berkshire Hathaway because it's a very different company, but the same idea of generate cash and deploy the cash in attractive areas, I think that's a decent strategy at least for now, for them to try and grow it and see what it becomes.
Sciple: Yeah, I think certainly under the radar, it's hard for me to get as excited about that maybe packaging business as you can for aerospace. But it is one that if these assets ever got gobbled up, if I ever saw a headline that said XYZ aerospace company acquires Ball's aerospace assets, or if you saw this get spun out, it would get my antennas up. One that I think is worth being aware of and having on your radar at least to a certain extent. Let's go now to the third company we're going to talk about today, that's HEICO's (NYSE: HEI) alked about Howmet Aerospace addresses the OEM market, the new parts, HEICO other side of the market?
Whiteman: Yes. This is by far the all-star at these companies. This is a diversified manufacturer and it's a family run business for better or for worse. Laurans Mendelson is the CEO. He acquired the company decades ago. He still runs it but his two sons are co-presidents. The family owns 15% or more of the stock, dual-class, so it's higher ownership. But wow, has this been a performer. It was the top-performing aerospace and defense stock of the last decade up 1,200%, continues to do well. It's best known as you say for its aerospace and particularly spare parts, but it also has significant other businesses. About half of sales come from outside of commercial aerospace. Some of that's defense, but a lot of it is electronical components in other industrial, they were probably the best performing aerospace stock during COVID because in part they have a medical device business. They don't make devices, but they make a lot of the electronics that go into them.
Parts of their business actually held up real well and saw demand rise during COVID, which was an interesting moment. They are very similar to a company they're often compared to and that I've talked about a lot, company TransDigm (NYSE: TDG); focused on the aftermarket, and what they do is they look for opportunities, especially through acquisitions, to find businesses that are both necessary for these planes to operate, but also hard to commoditize because either they're patent-protected, or it's too specialized to really just runoff an assembly line. It is a very lucrative niche when you find it. This is a company, as I said, it's done real well over the last decade or so. They are underwhelmed with their most recent earnings. They only beat because of tax benefits, their operations were light and they sounded the alarm that maybe investors are too excited about the recovery and what they've done. But as a long-term performer going past the blow-by-blow, it's hard to complain about what HEICO has been able to do.
Sciple: You talked about the really strong performance that HEICO has, focusing on all these niche products, same basic strategy as TransDigm. A question I always have with these is they've been running this roll-up strategy for the better part of a decade. How much more juice is there in this strategy and how many of these small types of part manufacturers are there, out there, for these companies to keep growing and acquire?
Whiteman: I think that's a fair criticism. You've seen TransDigm has gone to much bigger deal. What TransDigm has started to do, they attempted to buy Meggitt, they've just backed off of that, but they bought another British company where they buy whole companies and just spin-off what they don't want to or sell what they don't want. Because a lot of these have been rolled out, but there are opportunities. I think a bigger concern is that as engineering improves in newer models, you have more uniform parts. Boeing and Airbus are always trying to commoditize their supply chain as the best they can to keep it low cost. There are more opportunities on the planes that are being retired now than there are planes being introduced to service. But there is still a lot of demand out there. I mean the global air fleet is massive and there is growth to be had for the foreseeable future, just doing what they do with opportunities, mostly carve-outs of other businesses that are out there. But no, I think to your point, it's fair to say some of the lowest hanging fruit has definitely been picked.
Sciple: When you look at the stock today, what do you make of evaluation and then future opportunity for investors?
Whiteman: The stocks flat on the year, and I think part of that is, because as I said, it didn't fall as much during COVID and it was an early beneficiary. We all knew, even as air travel was going to slowly resume, that airlines weren't going to be buying new planes. The spare part business came back faster than new equipment. This is a best-of-breed company. We talked earlier about valuation. This is the stock that has doubled what Howmet traded about enterprise value of 40 times EBITDA. That's even higher than TransDigm, which is about 27 times. The family ownership thing has always got me a little lively, I like the skin in the game and I like parts of it. I wouldn't sell this if I owned it. I've always favored TransDigm and I still do. I like just parts of the model better. But look, HEICO is a solid performer that has a track record of delivering, and I see no reason to think that that's going to stop anytime soon.
Sciple: Great. I guess the family gives you a certain stability and we're going to keep the same strategy in place and all those sorts of things. You mentioned that this huge multiple difference you see between the aftermarket part makers and you mentioned Howmet, the OEM makers. Why such a big valuation gap?
Whiteman: To some extent, as I said, the manufacturers are trying to commoditize their supply chain. They are buying in bulk a lot, not everything, there are still some opportunities because some parts are just specialized, you can do patents. But buy in large, the newer planes with the bulk orders of new manufacturers versus legacy planes where the spare parts are harder to source. Also, part of it is that the just-in-time inventory. Some of these parts, if you're Delta Airlines or something, you may only need this part 20 times a year to fix an engine. But you darn well better have it that day if you need it. The beauty of TransDigm is it's a logistical play or its ability to meet those needs. People have been talking forever about TransDigm routinely does 40% plus margins. People have been saying forever that's not sustainable. The truth is, the reason it is sustainable is because the customer sees value in what they're getting. Yes, it's not a perfect form, you can't just buy anything. But it has worked really well over the years, especially with the make up the airlines right now and put them leaning on their existing fleets. There is a lot of opportunity for the foreseeable future.
Sciple: Yeah. Just-in-time inventory part really is the double underline for me, why you have so much more pricing power in this industry. Because I don't know if you're like me, but I've been stuck at an airport terminal because they said there were maintenance issues and I would pay whatever amount of money it costs to get me on that plane faster. Don't you know, any of these airline companies are tired of hearing the customer complaints as well and they'll pay TransDigm whatever it costs or HEICO or any of these aftermarket folks to get that product as quick as they possibly can, and that delivery comes at a premium.
Whiteman: Absolutely. Airlines make money when their planes are moving, yes.
Sciple: Facts. We've talked about a few under-the-radar companies. If your company's under the radar, maybe our potential investments for you. But if you're someone who doesn't want to look under the radar, you want to stay above the radar and just pick a company that just gives you a comfortable exposure to aerospace for you, what would be your recommendation for a beginning investor or the stock that would come top of mind for you?
Whiteman: I've already spoiled it. But TransDigm for me, if you own one commercial aerospace stock, TransDigm is the one to own. It's not cheap, although as I said, it's not as expensive as some. I loved the track record. They've been bruised because of their debt, but I think they are dealing with that especially now if they're not going to buy Meggitt. They're at a constant criticism because people look at the margins they get and complain that they're ripping off the Pentagon, unless they don't get those margins from the Pentagon side. But it's a battleground stock, so you get it at a discount to HEICO. I love this company and if you want exposure to commercial aerospace, I think that that is your one-stop shop.
Sciple: Lou, always love having you on the podcast. Alan, I hope we answered your question. But if not, we'll have Lou on again sometime soon to dig into another niche in aerospace. Till then, Lou, thanks for joining me.
Whiteman: Always a pleasure.
Sciple: As always, people on the program may own companies discussed on the show. The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against the stocks discussed so don't buy or sell anything based solely on what you hear. Thanks to Tim Sparks for mixing the show. For Lou Whiteman, I'm Nick Sciple. Thanks for listening and Fool on!
Lou Whiteman owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway (B shares), Delta Air Lines, and TransDigm Group. Nick Sciple owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway (B shares). The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Berkshire Hathaway (B shares). The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines, Heico, Hexcel, and TransDigm Group and recommends the following options: long January 2023 $200 calls on Berkshire Hathaway (B shares), short January 2023 $200 puts on Berkshire Hathaway (B shares), and short January 2023 $265 calls on Berkshire Hathaway (B shares). The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-30 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Executes Binding Term Sheet With FYI Resources To Produce High-purity Alumina
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(RTTNews) - Alcoa of Australia Limited, a subsidiary of Alcoa Corp. (AA), has executed a binding term sheet with Western Australia-based FYI Resources Ltd (FYI.AX) for development activities to produce high-purity alumina, or HPA, Alcoa said in a statement.
Alcoa of Australia will hold a 65 percent ownership interest in the project, which will have stages of development before potential construction, in 2024, of a full-scale, 8,000 metric-ton-per-year (mtpy) HPA plant.
Alcoa noted that the development activities also set a pathway for a future joint venture for the project, of which Alcoa of Australia would be the manager and both parties would contribute specific intellectual property.
Alcoa of Australia will contribute an initial $5 million, over 2021-2022, to stage one project development activities that will include additional production trials, as well as the detailed design of an estimated 1,000 mtpy demonstration facility.
In stage two, a demonstration facility would be constructed, and detailed engineering undertaken for a full-scale HPA plant that would produce 8,000 mtpy.
Stage three would include the start of construction for the full-scale plant.
The full-scale facility is currently projected to cost approximately $200 million.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-30 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Interesting AA Put And Call Options For November 12th
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Investors in Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) saw new options become available today, for the November 12th expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the AA options chain for the new November 12th contracts and identified one put and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $48.00 strike price has a current bid of $3.45. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $48.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $44.55 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of AA, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $49.12/share today.
Because the $48.00 strike represents an approximate 2% discount to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract would expire worthless. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 59%. Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change, publishing a chart of those numbers on our website under the contract detail page for this contract. Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 7.19% return on the cash commitment, or 60.95% annualized — at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, and highlighting in green where the $48.00 strike is located relative to that history:
Turning to the calls side of the option chain, the call contract at the $51.00 strike price has a current bid of $3.20. If an investor was to purchase shares of AA stock at the current price level of $49.12/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $51.00. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 10.34% if the stock gets called away at the November 12th expiration (before broker commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if AA shares really soar, which is why looking at the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, as well as studying the business fundamentals becomes important. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $51.00 strike highlighted in red:
Considering the fact that the $51.00 strike represents an approximate 4% premium to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 53%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of those numbers (the trading history of the option contract will also be charted). Should the covered call contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 6.51% boost of extra return to the investor, or 55.25% annualized, which we refer to as the YieldBoost.
The implied volatility in the put contract example, as well as the call contract example, are both approximately 62%.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing twelve month volatility (considering the last 252 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $49.12) to be 62%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth looking at, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Top YieldBoost Calls of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-27 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Lauren Hobart, Dick’s Sporting Goods’ Newest CEO, on Her People-First Strategy
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Dick’s Sporting Goods saw record sales last year, up 9.9% year-over-year, and is also being headed by a new CEO, the third to run the company since its inception in 1948, reported the Wall Street Journal.
Lauren Hobart is the sporting goods store’s newest CEO, its first nonfamily CEO as well as its first female one, and she joins the ranks of less than 50 female CEOs of major companies in the U.S. Under her leadership, Dick’s is expanding market share by introducing larger stores that offer interactive elements, such as rock-climbing walls, stores that cater more specifically to outdoor shoppers, as well as working to expand interest among female shoppers.
These changes come at a time when supply-chain woes continue to prove troublesome for all industries, but as of second quarter, Dick’s was up 19.2% compared to the same quarter last year.
Taking over from Ed Stack, former CEO and current chairman, Hobart explained that that her prioritizing people, both customers and coworkers, blended well with his entrepreneurial approach.
“We bring very different things to the table when it comes to a partnership. He’s a merchant through and through, and he’s an entrepreneur, and I had a history in marketing and strategic planning. We just balanced each other out,” she said in an interview with WSJ.
While Hobart believes firmly that her nomination and subsequent taking over as CEO had nothing to do with being a woman, she does acknowledge that being a woman has proved to be “a huge asset” in her leadership as CEO, from her people-first strategy to expanding the customer base.
One major way Hobart has been able to use her gender to reach customers was in a recent ad campaign that showcased her along with other female executives at Dick’s. It was a strategy that has made a difference, not just for female customers, but also towards empowering women by highlighting their female leadership front and center.
“There are a lot of assumptions that people make about who’s running this company. We decided that maybe people would be interested to see that we’re really working on behalf of women because we are women. We got incredible reactions—shocking to me actually, just how much people were looking for that kind of inspiration,” Hobart said.
AVUV Invests in Dick’s Sporting Goods
American Century Investments, partnering with Avantis Investments, offers the Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV), an ETF that invests in companies with low valuation but high profitability ratios.
An actively managed ETF, AVUV combines the typical benefits of following an index — diversification, low turnover, and a transparency of exposures — with the flexibility to capture price movements as they happen.
For benchmarking purposes, the fund uses the Russell 2000 Value Index, which tracks the 2,000 smallest capitalization stocks of the larger Russell 3000 Index, but the ETF does not replicate this index.
AVUV’s portfolio managers use fundamental screens such as shares outstanding, cash flow, expenses, revenue, and book-to-value to select stocks. Smaller companies with high profitability are weighted more heavily than those with lower returns and higher prices.
In addition, AVUV can also invest in derivatives, such as future contracts, currency forwards, and swap agreements to gain exposure to equities and manage cash flow.
AVUV’s top holdings include Cimarex Energy Co (XEC), a company that explores hydrocarbon in shale oil and gas drilling, at 0.94%; Alcoa Corp (AA), an American industrial corporation that produces aluminum, at 0.94%; and Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) at 0.93%.
As of the end of August, some of the top sector allocations for the fund include financials at 30%, consumer discretionary at 18%, and industrials at 16%.
AVUV has an expense ratio of 0.25%.
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the Core Strategies Channel.
Read more on ETFtrends.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-23 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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COLUMN-Alcoa powers up in Brazil as China aluminium powers down: Andy Home
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By Andy Home
LONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - After six years of lying idle the Alumar aluminium smelter in Brazil is about to restart operations.
Alcoa AA.N, which owns a 60% stake in the joint venture plant, said on Monday it will reactivate its 268,000-tonne-per-year share with first metal due in the second quarter and full capacity timed for the fourth quarter of next year.
The resurrection of the Sao Luis smelter is a sign of the changed times in the global aluminium market.
Back in 2015 aluminium was locked in a multi-year downtrend and the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month price CMAL3 sank to a six-year low of $1432.50 per tonne in November of that year.
China's primary metal production growth was accelerating, up 11% after 7% growth in 2014, as investment poured into smelting capacity. Exports of semi-manufactured products were booming, up 14% in 2015, eating into demand everywhere else.
Fast forward to 2021 and the LME price is trading around $2,950 per tonne, having hit the $3,000 level last week for the first time since 2008.
China's seemingly infinite production growth has stalled and shows signs of going into reverse as energy restrictions bite. With demand still strong, China's domestic supply-chain tensions are apparent every month in the form a continued flow of primary metal imports.
POWER CRUNCH
China's aluminium production rate slowed further in August, the latest estimates from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) show.
The country's annualised run-rate dropped to 38.8 million tonnes in August, the lowest level since December last year.
Cumulative production growth of 7.3% over the first eight months of 2021 is flattered by a low pandemic base last year and a short-lived growth spurt in January and February.
The IAI's count doesn't exactly match the official figures, which is down to the problems counting output across 80 production entities, but both are capturing the same stalled impetus.
The country's power-hungry smelters are hit by both a temporary power crunch and structural energy restrictions linked to Beijing's decarbonisation goals.
The result is some 2.33 million tonnes per year of smelter capacity cuts, according to state-backed research house Antaike.
Curtailments have been mandated in provinces struggling to meet quarterly energy efficiency targets such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and Henan. Yunnan province is also battling low water levels in its hydro system.
Many of the cutbacks will last through the end of the year with major producers such as Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co Ltd 000933.SZ and Yunnan Aluminium 000807.SZ downgrading production guidance.
Yunnan Aluminium had planned to bring online 380,000 tonnes per year of capacity, but that is postponed until power restrictions end.
This highlights the impact of power constraints on operating capacity and on the new capacity that was expected to lift Chinese production this year.
China was supposed to activate 1.8 million tonnes of new annualised capacity in 2021, according to Citi. ("Aluminium – transitioning from a cyclical into a structural bull market," Sep 7, 2021)
However, as much as 1.2 million tonnes and a further 625,000 tonnes expected in 2022 "will likely get postponed by about 6-12 months, due primarily to power shortages and provincial governments' energy-control-led administrative shutdowns."
POWERING UP?
China is the dominant power in global aluminium production so it's not hard to understand why prices have climbed to multi-year highs.
Analysts are rapidly reassessing both their supply-demand calculations and their price forecasts. Citi, for example, expects theglobal marketto experience a 1.1-million tonne supply shortfall this year and has lifted is 2022 LME average price forecast to $3,010 per tonne.
The sense of structural change explains Alcoa's restart of its idled Brazilian capacity and Russian producer Rusal's reactivation of its long-delayed Taishet smelter project.
But Western production is not responding to China's aluminium woes and the high price.
Reported production outside China was also the lowest this year at 26.2 million tonnes annualised, according to the IAI.
North American production has fallen due to the July strike action at Rio Tinto's RIO.L Kitimat smelter, which is operating at 35% of its 432,000-tonne annual capacity.
European production has also been sliding, hinting at compressed smelter margins caused by the spike in power prices.
The only significant production growth drivers outside China are India, Malaysia and the Gulf countries.
There is still plenty of idled capacity that could in theory be restarted in the coming months. Alcoa will still have 20% of its global capacity off-line even after firing Alumar up again.
However, each potential restart has to navigate its local power market both in terms of availability and price.
It's worth noting that Alumar is restarting despite evident stress in Brazil's hydro-electric power systems due to drought.
The country has hiked energy prices and Vice President Hamilton Mourao has warned that rationing might have to be introduced.
Against such a backdrop Alcoa has done well to secure what John Slaven, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer called "competitive, renewable, power arrangements".
It remains to be seen how many other operators can pull off the same trick in an increasingly stretched global power sector.
For now the focus is on China's stressed grid and sliding production in what remains the world's largest producer of aluminium.
China's annualised aluminium production slows further in Augusthttps://tmsnrt.rs/3u2RHaq
(Editing by Barbara Lewis)
((andy.home@thomsonreuters.com, 44-207-542-4412 and on Twitter https://twitter.com/AndyHomeMetals))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-23 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Best Stocks To Watch Today? 4 Industrial Stocks To Know
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Are These Top Industrial Stocks On Your Watchlist Now?
The stock market today/strong> appears to be breathing a sigh of relief as Evergrande-related fears wade and the Fed brings reassurance. At the same time, industrial stocks appear to be kicking into high gear all around. This would be the case as the latest update on the Fed’s tapering plans suggests that the economy is recovering as intended. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, tapers could conclude by mid-2022 should the “economic recovery remain on track”. Now, how would all this tie in with industrial stocks might you ask? Well, thanks to the somewhat positive outlook on the economy, investors could be eyeing industrial stocks among other cyclical sectors.
Accordingly, some of the top names in the industrial sector do not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. Aviation giant Boeing (NYSE: BA) is now expecting demand for its offerings to soar among Chinese airlines. Specifically, the company projects that 8,700 new airplanes will be ordered by 2040. The likes of which add up to a cool $1.47 trillion. Meanwhile, Nucor (NYSE: NUE), an industry-leading steel producer is looking to expand its production capabilities. This is evident as it now plans to construct a new state-of-the-art, three-million-ton sheet processing mill. By and large, I can understand if all this has investors keen on the top industrial stocks now. Here are four to consider in the stock market now.
Best Industrial Stocks To Watch Today
Meta Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: MMAT)
Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA)
Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ: HON)
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT)
Meta Materials
Meta Materials is an industrial company whose products are used across a range of applications. It invents and manufactures sustainable and highly functional materials. Namely, its technology platform encompasses three core capabilities: holography, lithography, and wireless sensing. These technologies enable leading global brands to deliver breakthrough products to Meta Materials’ customers in the fields of 5G, communications, health, aerospace, and also clean energy. MMAT stock currently trades at $5.12 as of 12:45 p.m. ET.
The company on Wednesday announced a global strategic co-development initiative, called Ideas for Innovation. In essence, this new outreach program will build upon ten years of shaping the field of metamaterial science in partnership with top researchers from around the world.
Furthermore, this would help accelerate metamaterial breakthroughs. It also recently announced the appointment of two executives to newly created strategic positions. This would include Shann Kerner, Ph.D., J.D., Chief Intellectual Property Officer, and Cindy Roberts, Executive Vice President of Corporate Affairs & Chief of Staff. Dr. Kerner will provide in-house expertise and strategic direction for META’s rapidly growing intellectual property portfolio. Given the excitement surrounding the company, will you consider investing in MMAT stock?
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS
[Read More] Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist
Alcoa Corporation
Following that, we have Alcoa Corporation, one of the largest producers of aluminum in the world. The company is a global industry leader in the production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum. It also boasts a portfolio of value-added cast products and select energy assets. Following that, the company continues to build its legacy of breakthrough innovations and best practices that have led to efficiency, safety, and sustainability. AA stock currently trades at $48.88 a piece as of 12:45 p.m. ET and is up by over 300% in the past year alone.
On September 20, 2021, the company announced that it plans to restart 268,000 metric tons per year (mtpy) of aluminum capacity at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, which has been fully curtailed since 2015. The first molten metal is expected in the second quarter of 2022, and the full 268,000 mtpy of capacity is expected to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2022.
By 2024, the Alumar smelter will be powered with 100% renewable energy. “Our restart decision is based on an analysis that shows the smelter can be competitive throughout all cycles, leveraging the co-located refinery, a strong workforce, and competitive, renewable power arrangements,” said John Slaven, Executive Vice President, and Chief Operating Officer. With this piece of information, is AA stock worth watching right now?
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS
Honeywell International Inc.
Honeywell is a multinational conglomerate corporation with headquarters in North Carolina. In brief, it is a Fortune 100 technology company that delivers industry-specific solutions. Also, this includes aerospace, building technologies, performance materials and technologies, and safety and productivity solutions. With that being said, HON stock currently trades at $220.12 as of 12:46 p.m. ET, up by over 35% in the past year.
In its latest financials that were posted in July, the company announced that it had beaten guidance and delivered a strong second quarter. In summary, it enjoyed sales growth in all four segments, totaling $8.8 billion for the quarter. Honeywell also reported a net income of $1.4 billion It also ended the quarter with $11.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Given the impressive financials, will you consider adding HON stock to your watchlist of industrial stocks?
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS
Caterpillar Inc.
Another top name to consider among industrial stocks now would be Caterpillar. In brief, Caterpillar is mainly a construction machinery and equipment company. As such, it designs, develops, and manufactures a wide variety of products for the construction industry. Aside from that, the company also offers customers financial products and insurance solutions related to construction project planning as well. All this with its global network of operations makes Caterpillar the world’s largest construction equipment manufacturer. As with most industrial stocks, CAT stock would rise with overall investor sentiment on the reopening trade.
Now, the company’s shares are trading at $197.32 a stock as of 12:46 p.m. ET. The real question now is, would now be a good time to buy CAT stock? Well, for one thing, the company remains hard at work extending its current lead in the industry. Just this month, Caterpillar made two notable plays. Firstly, the company is now working with energy industry titan Chevron (NYSE: CVX).
The duo is developing hydrogen demonstration projects in transportation and stationary power applications. Secondly, Caterpillar also acquired CarbonPoint Solutions, a U.S.-based carbon capture tech firm. By doing so, Caterpillar is looking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of its wares, in turn, helping its clients meet their climate-based goals. Given Caterpillar’s current momentum, would CAT stock be a top watch for you?
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-23 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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AA Crosses Above Average Analyst Target
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In recent trading, shares of Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) have crossed above the average analyst 12-month target price of $47.75, changing hands for $47.95/share. When a stock reaches the target an analyst has set, the analyst logically has two ways to react: downgrade on valuation, or, re-adjust their target price to a higher level. Analyst reaction may also depend on the fundamental business developments that may be responsible for driving the stock price higher — if things are looking up for the company, perhaps it is time for that target price to be raised.
There are 8 different analyst targets within the Zacks coverage universe contributing to that average for Alcoa Corporation, but the average is just that — a mathematical average. There are analysts with lower targets than the average, including one looking for a price of $14.00. And then on the other side of the spectrum one analyst has a target as high as $60.00. The standard deviation is $14.35.
But the whole reason to look at the average AA price target in the first place is to tap into a "wisdom of crowds" effort, putting together the contributions of all the individual minds who contributed to the ultimate number, as opposed to what just one particular expert believes. And so with AA crossing above that average target price of $47.75/share, investors in AA have been given a good signal to spend fresh time assessing the company and deciding for themselves: is $47.75 just one stop on the way to an even higher target, or has the valuation gotten stretched to the point where it is time to think about taking some chips off the table? Below is a table showing the current thinking of the analysts that cover Alcoa Corporation:
RECENT AA ANALYST RATINGS BREAKDOWN
» Current 1 Month Ago 2 Month Ago 3 Month Ago
Strong buy ratings: 5 4 4 4
Buy ratings: 0 0 0 0
Hold ratings: 3 3 3 3
Sell ratings: 0 0 0 0
Strong sell ratings: 0 0 0 0
Average rating: 1.75 1.86 1.86 1.86
The average rating presented in the last row of the above table above is from 1 to 5 where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell. This article used data provided by Zacks Investment Research via Quandl.com. Get the latest Zacks research report on AA — FREE.
10 ETFs With Most Upside To Analyst Targets »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-22 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Interesting AA Put And Call Options For October 15th
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Investors in Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) saw new options become available this week, for the October 15th expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the AA options chain for the new October 15th contracts and identified one put and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $48.00 strike price has a current bid of $3.00. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $48.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $45.00 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of AA, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $48.68/share today.
Because the $48.00 strike represents an approximate 1% discount to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract would expire worthless. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 55%. Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change, publishing a chart of those numbers on our website under the contract detail page for this contract. Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 6.25% return on the cash commitment, or 99.18% annualized — at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, and highlighting in green where the $48.00 strike is located relative to that history:
Turning to the calls side of the option chain, the call contract at the $49.00 strike price has a current bid of $2.83. If an investor was to purchase shares of AA stock at the current price level of $48.68/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $49.00. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 6.47% if the stock gets called away at the October 15th expiration (before broker commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if AA shares really soar, which is why looking at the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, as well as studying the business fundamentals becomes important. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $49.00 strike highlighted in red:
Considering the fact that the $49.00 strike represents an approximate 1% premium to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 51%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of those numbers (the trading history of the option contract will also be charted). Should the covered call contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 5.81% boost of extra return to the investor, or 92.26% annualized, which we refer to as the YieldBoost.
The implied volatility in the put contract example is 67%, while the implied volatility in the call contract example is 68%.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing twelve month volatility (considering the last 252 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $48.68) to be 62%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth looking at, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Top YieldBoost Calls of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-21 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Interesting AA Put And Call Options For November 19th
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Investors in Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) saw new options become available this week, for the November 19th expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the AA options chain for the new November 19th contracts and identified one put and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $45.00 strike price has a current bid of $4.15. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $45.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $40.85 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of AA, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $45.53/share today.
Because the $45.00 strike represents an approximate 1% discount to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract would expire worthless. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 57%. Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change, publishing a chart of those numbers on our website under the contract detail page for this contract. Should the contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 9.22% return on the cash commitment, or 57.01% annualized — at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, and highlighting in green where the $45.00 strike is located relative to that history:
Turning to the calls side of the option chain, the call contract at the $46.00 strike price has a current bid of $4.10. If an investor was to purchase shares of AA stock at the current price level of $45.53/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $46.00. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 10.04% if the stock gets called away at the November 19th expiration (before broker commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if AA shares really soar, which is why looking at the trailing twelve month trading history for Alcoa Corporation, as well as studying the business fundamentals becomes important. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $46.00 strike highlighted in red:
Considering the fact that the $46.00 strike represents an approximate 1% premium to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 47%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of those numbers (the trading history of the option contract will also be charted). Should the covered call contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 9.01% boost of extra return to the investor, or 55.67% annualized, which we refer to as the YieldBoost.
The implied volatility in the put contract example is 62%, while the implied volatility in the call contract example is 63%.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing twelve month volatility (considering the last 252 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $45.53) to be 62%. For more put and call options contract ideas worth looking at, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Top YieldBoost Calls of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-21 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa To Present At Jefferies Base Metals & Battery Materials Summit; Webcast At 1:30 PM ET
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(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corp. (AA) will participate in the Jefferies Base Metals & Battery Materials Summit.
The event is scheduled to begin at 1:30 PM ET on September 21, 2021.
To access the live webcast, log on to http://www.alcoa.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-21 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Tuesday Sector Laggards: Metals Fabrication & Products, Construction Stocks
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In trading on Tuesday, metals fabrication & products shares were relative laggards, down on the day by about 1.5%. Helping drag down the group were shares of Alcoa, down about 7% and shares of Byrna Technologies down about 5.2% on the day.
Also lagging the market Tuesday are construction shares, down on the day by about 1.2% as a group, led down by Myr Group, trading lower by about 4.2% and Concrete Pumping Holdings, trading lower by about 3.8%.
VIDEO: Tuesday Sector Laggards: Metals Fabrication & Products, Construction Stocks
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-20 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Notable Monday Option Activity: AA, DOW, NVAX
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Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA), where a total of 39,206 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 3.9 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 52.5% of AA's average daily trading volume over the past month of 7.5 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $48 strike call option expiring October 15, 2021, with 4,326 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 432,600 underlying shares of AA. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $48 strike highlighted in orange:
Dow Inc (Symbol: DOW) options are showing a volume of 21,645 contracts thus far today. That number of contracts represents approximately 2.2 million underlying shares, working out to a sizeable 50.1% of DOW's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 4.3 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $62.50 strike call option expiring November 19, 2021, with 1,147 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 114,700 underlying shares of DOW. Below is a chart showing DOW's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $62.50 strike highlighted in orange:
And Novavax, Inc. (Symbol: NVAX) saw options trading volume of 20,324 contracts, representing approximately 2.0 million underlying shares or approximately 50% of NVAX's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 4.1 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $195 strike put option expiring October 15, 2021, with 2,083 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 208,300 underlying shares of NVAX. Below is a chart showing NVAX's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $195 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for AA options, DOW options, or NVAX options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Today's Most Active Call & Put Options of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-20 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Plans To Restart Its Alumar Smelter Facility In Brazil
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(RTTNews) - Alcoa Corp. (AA) Monday announced plans to restart its Alumar smelter in São Luís, Brazil, which has been fully curtailed since 2015.
The process to restart the idle capacity will begin immediately. The first molten metal is expected in the second quarter 2022, and the full 268,000 mtpy of capacity is expected to be operational in the fourth quarter 2022. By 2024, the Alumar smelter will be powered with 100 percent renewable energy.
"Our restart decision is based on an analysis that shows the smelter can be competitive throughout all cycles, leveraging the co-located refinery, a strong workforce, and competitive, renewable power arrangements," said John Slaven, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. "With this planned restart, we'll be able to build upon the strong capabilities at this site and capture benefits for our investors, customers, employees and the stakeholders in the state of Maranhão in Brazil."
The smelter is jointly owned by a subsidiary of Alcoa and South32 and has three potlines with a total operating capacity of 447,000 metric tons, which includes Alcoa's share of 268,000 metric tons. Alcoa Alumínio, a wholly owned subsidiary of Alcoa Corporation, owns 60 percent of the smelting and casting capacity; South32 holds the remaining 40 percent.
The Alumar smelter restart will involve the hiring of more than 750 employees and will add to the 850 direct employees at the site's co-located alumina refinery.
The cost of the restart is anticipated to be about $75 million, including around $10 million in capital expenses. Restart expenses expected to be incurred in the fourth quarter of 2021 are estimated to be between $15 million and $20 million pre-tax or $0.05 and $0.07 per share.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-16 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Japan buyer agrees to pay Q4 aluminium premium of $220/T, 19% higher than Q3
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By Yuka Obayashi
TOKYO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - A Japanese aluminium buyer has agreed to pay a global producer a premium of $220 per tonne over the benchmark price for shipments in October to December, up 19% from the current quarter to reflect higher overseas premiums, two sources directly involved in the pricing talks said.
The figure is higher than the $185 per tonne paid in the July-September quarter and marks a fifth consecutive quarterly increase and the highest since the April-June quarter in 2015. But it is lower than the initial offers of $230-$250 made by producers.
Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the light metal and the premiums PREM-ALUM-JP for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price CMAL0 set the benchmark for the region.
The rise reflected soaring premiums in Europe and the United States amid tight supply, a source at a producer said.
Prices of aluminium touched $3,000 a tonne for the first time since 2008 on Monday as restrictions on output in China, the biggest producer, fuelled fears that supply will run short.
Still, Japanese buyers were reluctant to pay above $230 a tonne as local supply was not as tight as in Europe or North America and falling automobile production amid a global chip shortage fuelled concerns over slower demand of the light metal, another source at an end-user said.
"But we have agreed at $220 a tonne as a producer lowered its offer from the initial level," the source said.
They declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks.
The latest quarterly pricing negotiations began last month between Japanese buyers and global suppliers including Rio Tinto RIO.AX, RIO.L and South32 S32.AX and are expected to continue until later this month.
(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Toby Chopra and David Evans)
((Yuka.Obayashi@thomsonreuters.com; +813-4520-1265;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-15 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Small-Caps a Great Play on Value Investing Amidst S&P 500 Highs
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While the S&P 500 is beginning to experience some pressure, it is still only 2% off of its record highs, the most recent set this month. With so many investors having flocked to the large-cap growth companies, some advisors are looking at the valuation prices in small-caps.
“With the market at all-time highs, it’s about looking where people aren’t and I think that’s small caps right now,” Jeff Mills, CIO at Bryn Mawr Trust, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday.
The S&P 500 has consistently set records for much of the year, while the Russell 2000, a benchmark for small-caps, has underperformed. This has led to some of the cheapest valuations in the last 20 years of small-caps versus large-caps on a forward price-earnings basis relative to the S&P 500, said Mills.
“In the beginning of the year what you saw were investors moving to small caps, moving to cyclicals because everybody anticipated this unabated economic recovery. I think as economic data started to slow down as delta started to come into the fray, I think people started to move away from that and actually huddle into large cap so that is the more crowded trade right now,” Mills said.
Small-Cap Exposure With AVUV
American Century Investments, partnering with Avantis Investments, offers the Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV), an ETF that invests in companies with low valuation but high profitability ratios.
An actively managed ETF, AVUV combines the typical benefits of following an index — diversification, low turnover, and a transparency of exposures — with the flexibility to capture price movements as they happen.
For benchmarking purposes, the fund uses the Russell 2000 Value Index, which tracks the 2,000 smallest capitalization stocks of the larger Russell 3000 Index, but the ETF does not replicate this index.
AVUV’s portfolio managers use fundamental screens such as shares outstanding, cash flow, expenses, revenue, and book-to-value to select stocks. Smaller companies with high profitability are weighted more heavily than those with lower returns and higher prices.
In addition, AVUV can also invest in derivatives, such as future contracts, currency forwards, and swap agreements to gain exposure to equities and manage cash flow.
AVUV’s top holdings include Alcoa Corp (AA), an American industrial corporation that produces aluminum, at 0.96%; Cimarex Energy Co (XEC), a company that explores hydrocarbon in shale oil and gas drilling, at 0.91%; and Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) at 0.90%.
As of the end of August, some of the top sector allocations for the fund include financials at 30%, consumer discretionary at 18%, and industrials at 16%.
AVUV has an expense ratio of 0.25%.
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the Core Strategies Channel.
Read more on ETFtrends.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-13 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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National Beverage Drinks Up Big Gains Despite Supply Chain Headwinds
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After reporting its first-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings results the day before, National Beverage (NASDAQ: FIZZ) stock price climbed more than 12% on Sept. 10, dramatically reversed what had been a slow decline in its share value over the past six months.
The earnings results beat analyst expectations on both the top and bottom line, and they managed to come despite raw material shortages and supply chain hiccups. Things look positive in general for the company, but will its fizzy good fortune stay carbonated, or begin to go flat again?
Image source: Getty Images.
National Beverage versus cost increases
The parent company of well-known brands such as Shasta sodas, La Croix sparkling water, and Rip It energy drinks, National Beverage appears to have reversed a slow downtrend that began in late winter 2021. After a brief stint as a meme stock in late January, when its share price rose above $90 for a short time, the company has been a favorite target for a few bearish analysts and now has short interest of around 26%.
As recently as July, right after its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report, analysts such as CFRA Research made gloomy forecasts for the latter half of 2021. CFRA in particular rated the stock as a "sell," citing National Beverage's likely inability to raise retail prices to offset increased input costs. Earlier in the year, UBS analysts pointed to similar factors as the basis for its own bearish assessment.
However, National Beverage disproved this thesis with its very next earnings report, the current first-quarter filing. Revenue rose 6.3% year over year for fiscal Q1, reaching $311.7 million, even though it raised prices by 4.7% during the quarter. The price increase resulted from rising labor costs, packaging expenses, and raw material inflation, the last a reference to the current aluminum shortage that's driving can prices to 10-year highs and sending the stock of aluminum producers such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA) skyrocketing.
Nevertheless, National Beverage increased its sales case volume by 1.5% despite its sharp price increase. These two elements -- higher prices coupled to a rising volume of sales -- accounted for its revenue jump, while at the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share of $0.58 rose approximately 5.5% year over year.
Some factors are favorable for National Beverage
Looking past the shipping, labor, and aluminum can challenges, both PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) noted a powerful mid-2021 increase in demand for soda and other beverages. During its Q2 earnings call, Coca-Cola's CEO James Quincey noted increased travel, restaurant dining, gatherings, and public events as driving soda demand, while "at-home volumes remained robust, leading to broad-based share gains in the quarter." PepsiCo said much the same and even put enough trust in the "soda surge" to increase its guidance for the year's second half.
The relative immunity of National Beverage's demand growth to the company's increased prices also seems to buttress its claims of significant customer loyalty. In the company's press release, management notes its core "Power+ brand volume grew 5.6%," notwithstanding its price increase. It goes on to argue that "this reflects the preference consumers have for our great-tasting beverages," and it supports that claim by pointing out "the substantial price discounting employed by certain competitors to promote their sparkling waters."
In fact, contrary to the bears and shorts, National Beverage probably would have seen even higher sales and revenue growth in spite of its price increase, had the current production bottleneck not gotten in the way. The company's quarterly report to the SEC notes that "labor, raw material, and transportation constraints impacted our ability to meet customer demand."
While no specific metrics are given, this statement suggests that National Beverage's volume of sales could have been measurably higher, boosting revenue and earnings even more, if not for a lack of materials to meet demand. When the supply chain and raw material situations eventually normalize, at least some of this pent-up demand may remain to translate into a future jump in growth.
Will National Beverage quench your thirst for gains?
As a stock, National Beverage has been a success story for several years. It has generally outperformed the S&P 500 over extended periods, though it sometimes dips below the index too. The stock price is up 23.8% so far in 2021, 29.5% over the past 12 months, 101% over five years, and 548% during the past decade. The company has delivered significant growth overall, despite seldom making the headlines other than in a smattering of negative predictions from a handful of analysts.
Underlying market conditions are favorable even though temporary supply and inflation issues exist. National Beverage appears to be successfully navigating the difficulties and profiting from the opportunities. Fools with an interest in beverage stocks may want to add at least a sip of this possibly underrated sector company to their portfolios, given the positive flavor of its results.
10 stocks we like better than National Beverage
When our award-winning analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.*
They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now... and National Beverage wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.
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*Stock Advisor returns as of August 9, 2021
Rhian Hunt has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-10 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Aluminum Corporation of China Stock Blasted to 52-Week Highs This Week
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What happened
Aluminum Corporation of China (NYSE: ACH) shares were on fire this week, popping almost 24% on heavy volumes by Sept. 9 to hit 52-week highs before cooling off a bit. The stock was still up 18% this week as of 3 p.m. EDT Friday, thanks to an unexpected event that has rattled global aluminum markets.
So what
West African country Guinea has the world's largest reserves of bauxite, which is the principal ore for aluminum. China, the world's largest aluminum producer, sourced nearly half its bauxite requirement last year from Guinea.
Prices of aluminum have skyrocketed this year as demand soared even as supply concerns loomed large, especially after China cut down production as an anti-pollution measure. A freak fire in a refinery in Jamaica late August further exacerbated supply concerns. Roy Harvey, CEO of one of the world's largest aluminum producers, Alcoa, reportedly even told The Wall Street Journal recently that "there's just not enough metal inside of North America."
Given the backdrop, a major political event in the world's largest aluminum feedstock suppliers was bound to send the aluminum industry into a tizzy.
Image source: Getty Images.
A military coup in Guinea last weekend stoked fears of a shortfall in supply of bauxite from the nation, sending aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange to 10-year highs. Shares of aluminum mining companies like Aluminum Corporation of China shot up in response. Aluminum Corporation is among the largest aluminum companies in China. It operates through the entire process chain, from upstream bauxite and coal mining to downstream trading of aluminum, coal, and other ancillary products.
Meanwhile, coal prices in Asia also hit record highs this week thanks to China's production curbs that hit the nation harder this time thanks to an unexpected surge in demand for electricity, backed by the economy's reopening after COVID-19 restrictions. So although Aluminum Corporation of China consumes large quantities of coal, it sources it primarily from its own mines and even sells a portion to external customers. Higher coal prices, therefore, work in the company's favor.
Now what
Volatility is inherent in commodity stocks thanks to fluctuating commodity price. Yet base metals like aluminum have wide uses especially in high-growth industries like electric vehicles, which is why I urge investors to not panic when metals and mining stocks temporarily crashed recently. Investors in stocks like Aluminum Corporation should always be prepared to stomach volatility.
10 stocks we like better than Aluminum Corporation of China
When our award-winning analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has tripled the market.*
They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Aluminum Corporation of China wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.
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*Stock Advisor returns as of August 9, 2021
Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-10 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Do Its Financials Have Any Role To Play In Driving Alcoa Corporation's (NYSE:AA) Stock Up Recently?
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Alcoa (NYSE:AA) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 27% over the last three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on Alcoa's ROE.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Alcoa is:
10% = US$566m ÷ US$5.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2021).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.10.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
A Side By Side comparison of Alcoa's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE
To begin with, Alcoa seems to have a respectable ROE. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 17%. Further, Alcoa's five year net income growth of 4.1% is on the lower side. Bear in mind, the company does have a respectable level of ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. Hence there might be some other aspects that are keeping growth in earnings low. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is facing competitive pressures.
As a next step, we compared Alcoa's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 13% in the same period.
NYSE:AA Past Earnings Growth September 10th 2021
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is AA worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether AA is currently mispriced by the market.
Is Alcoa Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Summary
On the whole, we do feel that Alcoa has some positive attributes. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. The latest industry analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to maintain its current growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-08 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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XME, QCON: Big ETF Outflows
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Looking at units outstanding versus one week prior within the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, the biggest outflow was seen in the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF, where 2,550,000 units were destroyed, or a 5.8% decrease week over week. Among the largest underlying components of XME, in morning trading today Alcoa is down about 0.8%, and Nucor is lower by about 1.6%.
And on a percentage change basis, the ETF with the biggest outflow was the QCON ETF, which lost 160,000 of its units, representing a 29.6% decline in outstanding units compared to the week prior.
VIDEO: XME, QCON: Big ETF Outflows
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-09-08 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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7 Aluminum Stocks to Buy as Prices Hit Decade Highs
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InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
Aluminum is one of the most abundant metals on Earth. It’s also incredibly useful, with applications across industries including aerospace, shipping, beverage packaging and construction, to name a few. Of course, the pandemic initially harmed aluminum stocks, sending prices to lows in May of 2020 as sales slowed. But they have since rebounded, recently hitting 10-year highs.
The problem now is that end-users in Europe and North America can’t get their hands on enough supply. Chinese imports of aluminum increased when the nation switched from being a net exporter to a net importer.
The move was initially one of opportunity. China sought to bolster its stockpiles of the metal on slumping commodity prices. But many believe China will continue to import for the foreseeable future. It could invest in smelting in other nearby Asian countries in an effort to limit carbon emissions. As a result, prices for the commodity could remain elevated.
As such, companies that utilize aluminum have seen costs rise. According to the Wall Street Journal, Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST) CEO Hilton Schlosberg characterized the price shifts as unprecedented, noting: “I’ve been in this business for a long time…and I’ve never seen aluminum where it’s at right now.”
Producers, though, are seeing boon times with these high commodity prices. What’s more, continued logistical issues like congested port entry, shipping container shortages and stockpiled supplies will keep prices high.
7 EV Charging Stocks to Buy for an Infrastructure Rally
That means that investing in aluminum stocks is a smart move today. So, let’s look at some of the industry’s producers.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA)
Kaiser Aluminum (NASDAQ:KALU)
Vedanta (NYSE:VEDL)
Aluminum Corporation of China (NYSE:ACH)
Constellium (NYSE:CSTM)
Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX)
Arconic (NYSE:ARNC)
Aluminum Stocks to Buy: Alcoa (AA)
Source: Daniel J. Macy / Shutterstock.com
Alcoa may well be the most recognizable name among aluminum stocks on this list. This Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania company was founded in the late 1800s and, if you’ve ever spent time at a building site, you’ve probably seen its products.
The good news for investors here is this: right now, high aluminum prices are filtering through to Alcoa’s bottom line and its share price.
When the company released its second-quarter earnings on Jul. 15, the news was good. In fact, it was a stark turnaround from Q2 a year earlier. Over that period, revenues increased by nearly 32%, reaching $2.83 billion. In Q2 2020, Alcoa had suffered a $197 million net loss when aluminum prices tanked. A year later, though, and the company posted $309 million in net income on rising prices.
AA stock and Alcoa split from its parent — Arconic, also on this list — back in 2016. This most recent quarter was the company’s strongest since the split. Alcoa is using the boon to reduce debt and is specifically paying down $500 million in 7.00% notes, which are due in 2026. The company had also already directed $750 million toward early redemption of 6.75% senior notes, as specified in its Q2 earnings release.
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU)
Source: shutterstock.com/happylemon
Next up on this list is Kaiser Aluminum, a company that manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum. Its products have applications in aerospace, engineering, automotive and other specialty industrial sectors.
For starters, I should provide a note of caution here: when it comes to aluminum stocks, aluminum producers themselves will be in the best position due to the price spikes. Kaiser Aluminum is an end-application firm which uses the metal in its products. Sure, it could see a bump in its business, but probably a more muted one than producers.
This company has seen a dramatic increase in shipments and sales over the second quarter as well as the first half of 2021. Sales hit $741 million in Q2 2021, up some 168% from $276 million a year prior. Similarly, over that same period, net income increased by 166%, rising from $6 million to $16 million in Q2 2021. Finally, for the first half of the year, sales increased by 65%. All told, Kaiser is in a much better position than it was a year ago.
7 Healthcare Stocks to Buy Before $3.5 Trillion Floods In
There is some trepidation regarding KALU stock, but for investors who want to look beyond pure production, this one is worthwhile. Prices should continue to rise as supply-chain issues still favor the company for the foreseeable future.
Aluminum Stocks to Buy: Vedanta (VEDL)
Source: shutterstock.com/RHJPhtotoandilustration
Vedanta is an Indian company that engages in multiple areas of the commodities business. For example, the company operates across minerals, oil and gas and also processes both copper and iron ore in addition to aluminum.
Of course, the reason to consider this pick of aluminum stocks now relates to sky-high aluminum prices. The company recorded its highest-ever quarterly aluminum production in its most recent earnings report on Jul. 26.
For the period, sales increased 79% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. Meanwhile, EBITDA gains outpaced increased sales, reaching 150% growth over the same period.
I see a few reasons for optimism regarding VEDL stock moving forward.
For one, it has been established that China will likely continue to be a net importer of aluminum in the near term — and perhaps longer. Given India’s proximity to China, there is potential for increased revenues. (Yes, I am aware that their political relationship is strained, but the opportunity remains.)
Further, Vedanta maintains operations that span multiple commodity classes. Those commodities’ respective supply chains may also be facing similar issues to aluminum. That could mean that, for example, something like zinc could pop.
So, VEDL stock isn’t just an interesting play on aluminum. It’s also a general way to play commodities.
Aluminum Corporation of China (ACH)
Source: shutterstock.com/Ratchat
Let’s begin our discussion of the Aluminum Corporation of China with raw returns. After all, at the end of the day, that’s what we’re all interested in as investors. And when it comes to ACH stock, the news is good on that front; the stock has more than doubled in price since the beginning of 2021, rising from the $9 level to around $20 per share today.
If there is one entry on this list of aluminum stocks to pay the most attention to, it’s ACH. Why? The reason primarily relates to the idea that China-based companies are stockpiling and becoming sellers following their strategic moves in 2020. Moreover, this company’s focus on procurement makes it a central player in the aluminum narrative in China.
Aluminum Corporation of China is a raw materials and commodity producer. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it focus more on an import-export role, given that smelting may move to nearby Asian countries on emissions regulations. A few lines from one company filing summarizes ACH well:
“We are a leading enterprise in the non-ferrous metal industry in China. In terms of comprehensive scale, we ranked among the top enterprises in the global aluminum industry. We have benefited from the development of the PRC aluminum market, the world’s largest aluminum market. We refine bauxite into alumina, which is then smelted into primary aluminum.”
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There is clear country risk here, given this name’s location. But I get the sense that ACH stock can run a lot higher — and that there is an information lag upon which to capitalize.
Aluminum Stocks to Buy: Constellium (CSTM)
Source: shutterstock.com/MOLPIX
Next up on this list of aluminum stocks is Constellium, a French specialty rolled aluminum manufacturer that serves the aerospace, packaging and automotive end markets.
Investors interested in momentum stocks will likely gravitate toward CSTM stock. That’s because it has increased by 47% in price year-to-date (YTD). That steady upward momentum has brought prices from below $14 to above $20. What’s more, this stock’s prices should continue to march upward, if analyst consensus bears out. According to Tipranks, four analysts with coverage give CSTM stock an average target price of $23.75. All four rate it a buy.
Constellium shipped 406,000 metric tons of aluminum in Q2 2021, up 31% from a year earlier. That increase led to 1.5 billion euros ($1.77 billion) in revenues, representing a 47% increase YOY. And according to CEO Jean-Marc Germain, that momentum isn’t slowing:
“I look to the second half of the year with confidence. Demand from our major end markets, with the exception of aerospace, is at or above pre-pandemic levels. We expect these favorable conditions to continue at least through the remainder of 2021. Based on our current outlook, we are raising our guidance […]”
Constellium now expects adjusted EBITDA of 545 million euros to 560 million euros ($644.1 million to $661.8 million). It also sees free cash flow of at least 125 million euros ($147.7 million) for the year.
Century Aluminum (CENX)
Source: Shutterstock
Century Aluminum should appeal to investors seeking inexpensive aluminum stocks that cans still capitalize on the current boom.
On the inexpensive front, there’s quite a bit of good news here: share prices are under $13 currently. That’s much cheaper than some of Century’s larger competitors. Beyond that, CENX stock also carries an average target price of $18, based on one analyst on Tipranks. That implies that there’s more than 40% upside.
Century Aluminum released its financial results back in early August. The numbers were strong. For example, the company realized per ton prices of $2,155 for aluminum during the period, up $215 from a quarter earlier. Premiums increased as well, owing to the inaccessibility of the metal. That demand spike meant the company commanded a $490 premium in the U.S. Midwest and a $175 premium in Europe on a per ton basis. Altogether, although shipments decreased by a modest 2.45% between Q1 and Q2, sales increased by roughly 19%.
7 Dividend Aristocrat Stocks to Buy in September for Gains and Stability
This company is expanding its operations and CEO Jesse Gary is highly optimistic moving forward, noting strong growth: “This has been especially true in the U.S. and Europe, where we have seen inventories already return to pre-pandemic levels and demand for value-added products, including low-carbon products, near all-time highs.”
Aluminum Stocks to Buy: Arconic (ARNC)
Source: Jonathan Weiss
Last up on this list of aluminum stocks is Arconic, another aluminum producer that’s capitalizing on current demand. The company has rebounded from the depths of last year’s low prices very nicely. In fact, Q2 sales hit $1.8 billion, up 52% from the second quarter of 2020.
In Q2 of 2020, Arconic realized a net loss of $96 million. That loss swelled to $427 million in Q2 2021. Of course, this sounds bad on the face of it. Why should the company’s losses continue to mount if aluminum prices are at a 10-year high? Well, the answer lies in pension obligations and funding. Arconic directed $423 million toward “the partial annuitization of U.S. pension obligations completed in quarter.”
Overall, Arconic reported Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $187 million. The company also updated its guidance for full-year revenue to between $7.3 billion and $7.6 billion, up from $7.1 billion to $7.4 billion. All in all, you could pick worse than ARNC stock.
On the date of publication, Alex Sirois did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Alex Sirois is a freelance contributor to InvestorPlace whose personal stock investing style is focused on long-term, buy-and-hold, wealth-building stock picks. Having worked in several industries from e-commerce to translation to education and utilizing his MBA from George Washington University, he brings a diverse set of skills through which he filters his writing.
The post 7 Aluminum Stocks to Buy as Prices Hit Decade Highs appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-27 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Alcoa Stock Is Soaring This Week and May Not Stop
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What happened
Shares of aluminum giant Alcoa (NYSE: AA) are racing higher and are up 9.8% so far this week, as of early Friday. It's a stunning recovery after the stock's steep 16.7% decline just over a week ago. What's with all the volatility?
So what
As a commodity stock, Alcoa shares ebb and flow with commodity prices. Prices of aluminum have fluctuated dramatically in recent days after a heady rally this year, and so has the stock price.
For example, prices in Shanghai hit 13-year highs on Aug. 17 as China -- the world's largest aluminum producer -- curbed production to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Barely two days later, China reported slower than-expected industrial production numbers for June, triggering fears of a meltdown in the global metals and mining market. Prices of key base metals like copper and iron ore tanked, pulling aluminum prices along.
Chances are, Alcoa shares may not have bounced back so fast this week had it not been for a freak fire.
Image source: Getty Images.
On Aug. 22, a major fire broke out at the Jamalco refinery in Jamaica, forcing it to shut down. The incident sent prices of alumina soaring to highs not seen in six months. Alumina is used to produce aluminum.
You may ask: Why does fire at one refinery influence alumina prices so much, and how does it affect Alcoa?
In reality, it isn't about the Jamalco's refinery's size -- it can produce around 1.4 million metric tons of alumina annually, which is only a fraction of the 134.4 million metric tons of alumina produced globally in the past 12 months.
Yet there's already a crunch in supply of the aluminum feedstock, partly because of the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions, so any further drop in production -- whether it's because of curbs in China or a fire at any refinery in the world -- is enough to spook the metal and mining markets.
Alcoa, in particular, stands to benefit the most from higher prices of alumina -- It is the world's largest alumina producer, after all, with a capacity to produce 17 million metric tons a year. Although Alcoa uses much of its produce in its own aluminum smelters, it sells at least half of it externally.
Now what
Alcoa ramped up alumina production to near-record levels last quarter, and I suspect it's continuing to do so to fully exploit the strength in demand and prices. If alumina prices can sustain momentum, Alcoa could deliver yet another record quarter in coming months, which should drive its stock price higher. In any case, I reiterate my views from last week that Alcoa is on solid footing, and it's still too early to call it an end for the commodities supercycle.
10 stocks we like better than Alcoa Corporation
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Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-23 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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One global aluminium producer seeks Q4 premiums of $230/T -sources
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TOKYO, Aug 23 (Reuters) - One global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers premiums of $230 per tonne for October-December primary metal shipments, up 24% from the current quarter, three sources directly involved in quarterly pricing talks said on Monday.
Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the metal and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price CMAL0 set the benchmark for the region.
For the July-September quarter, Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $185 per tonne PREM-ALUM-JP, up 24-25% from the prior quarter and the highest in more than six years as global demand picks up after a pandemic-induced slump.
(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Susan Fenton)
((Yuka.Obayashi@thomsonreuters.com; +813-4520-1265;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-22 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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What’s Behind The 80% Jump In Alcoa Stock?
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Alcoa stock (NYSE: AA) has seen a large rise of 80% in the last six months and currently trades at $41 per share. The sharp rally was driven by an increase in global aluminum prices. The gradual lifting of lockdowns, widening coverage of vaccines against Covid-19, and stimulus measures have led to optimism in the markets of faster economic recovery. Additionally, the near bipartisan passage of the U.S. infrastructure bill in the Senate has led to expectations of higher demand for steel, aluminum, copper, etc. which has driven the rally in global prices of commodities. Aluminum price per ton has increased almost 20% in the last six months from $2,130 to $2,555, and over the last one year the price of aluminum is up more than 40%. This has also helped Alcoa record its highest profitability since the time the old Alcoa was split up into two entities – Arconic and present-day Alcoa in 2016, with a net income margin of 11% and EPS of $1.63 in Q2 2021. But will Alcoa’s stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely?
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s historical stock price data, returns for Alcoa stock average 6.5% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing an 80% rise over the previous six-month (126 trading days) period. The stock has a 61.5% probability of giving a positive return in the next month. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding Alcoa stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test AA stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF Alcoa stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, Alcoa stock moves an average of almost 3 percent, with a more than 49% probability of a positive return.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Alcoa Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for Alcoa stock higher after a drop?
Answer:
Consider two situations,
Case 1: Alcoa stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Alcoa stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Alcoa stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
AA stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 3.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 5.7% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Alcoa stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer:
If you buy and hold Alcoa stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For AA stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer:
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although AA stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
AA’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Alcoa stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.
See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here
What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For CFOs and Finance Teams | Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-20 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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White House withholds support of Democratic carbon border tax
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By Jarrett Renshaw
Aug 20 (Reuters) - The White House is withholding support for a Democratic proposal to impose a pollution tax on imports from China and other countries, casting doubt on whether Democrats will be able to deploy what environmentalists consider one of the greatest weapons to tackle global climate change in a massive spending bill this year.
The United States is the closest it has ever been to imposing a carbon border tax - which seeks to level the playing field between U.S. companies which face environmental regulations at home and foreign competitors with less rigorous standards - after Democrats included the proposal in their $3.5 trillion reconciliation package last week that they hope to pass along party lines by mid-September.
U.S. President Joe Biden and top members of his administration have said publicly they support a carbon border tax as a tool to advance climate goals, but the White House has not endorsed the Democratic proposal, spearheaded by longtime Biden ally Senator Chris Coons. The tax, as outlined by lawmakers, would raise billions by levying a tariff on carbon-intensive imports, but leaves specific details up to the Biden administration.
The White House is concerned the Democrats' proposal will raise prices on a host of consumer goods, from cars to appliances, and conflict with Biden's pledge not to tax any American earning less than $400,000 per year, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. The White House is also worried any tax that raises prices could fuel Republican attacks that his policies are driving up inflation, they say.
The White House plans to withhold support as the U.S. Treasury and other administration officials try to coordinate tax policy with trading allies like the European Union, which recently announced its own carbon border tax.
"We believe that carbon border adjustments in relation to carbon-intensive goods represent a potential, useful tool. We do not have a comment on any specific proposals at this time," a White House official said. "We will continue to engage with Congress, our partners around the world, and other stakeholders, including workers and domestic industry, on this issue.”
PROTECT JOBS, CUT EMISSIONS
The idea of a carbon border tax was aimed at helping rich countries retain manufacturing jobs and investment that have gone for decades to lower-regulation countries, and encourage other countries to also price carbon and drive down emissions. The EU's tax, proposed last month to go into effect in 2026, was the world's first.
It is also considered a way to keep American companies whose manufacturing processes emit heavy amounts of carbon pollution from relocating to countries with looser environmental rules, a phenomenon known as leakage. The U.S. economy lost almost a third of its manufacturing jobs from 2000 to 2010, as China emerged as a low-cost manufacturing superpower.
More than a fifth of all greenhouse gas emissions globally come from the industrial sector, notes Collin O’Mara, president of the National Wildlife Federation.
"A key way to reduce that source of pollution is to ensure the foreign polluters reduce emissions to match U.S.-based manufactures, while expanding exports of low-emission American-made products around the world," O'Mara said.
In the U.S. congressional proposal, companies that want to sell concrete, steel, aluminum or other commodities into the United States would be required to pay a tariff if their country imposes fewer carbon-cutting regulations than American companies.
The tax could hit companies like Rio Tinto RIO.L and ArcelorMittal MT.LU while making such products from U.S. companies like Nucor NUE.N and Alcoa AA.N more competitive.
The White House's concerns about a carbon border tax hitting less wealthy Americans are valid if foreign companies raise prices in response to protect profits, said David Weisbach, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School and an expert in carbon border tariffs.
“The tariff will raise consumer prices on people that buy, say, automobiles, since it's going to be on steel and aluminum used to make automobiles," he said, adding it would "unquestionably" raise prices for U.S. consumers earning less than $400,000 a year.
(Reporting By Jarrett Renshaw; Editing by Heather Timmons and Jonathan Oatis)
((jarrett.renshaw@thomsonreuters.com; (646) 223-6193;))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-20 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Shares of Major Metals and Mining Stocks Melted This Week
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What happened
It's turning out to be a nerve-wracking week for metals and mining stocks, with many breaking their winning streak that started this year and falling precipitously. Here's how some of the largest stocks from the sector are performing as of 1:45 p.m. EDT Friday:
BHP Group (NYSE: BHP): Down 18.9%.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX): Down 14.2%.
Vedanta (NYSE: VEDL): Down 17.5%.
Alcoa (NYSE: AA): Down 17%.
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (NYSE: SID): Down: 15.8%.
There's a common link between all these stocks: They're industrial metals producers, dealing in base metals, which also explains why they're tumbling.
So what
The meteoric rise in metals stocks this year can be attributed to surging prices of metals. But wait, that's an understatement: Prices of iron ore, copper, steel, and aluminum, in fact, hit record highs some weeks ago. Here's a quick overview of the metals and materials the five stocks primarily deal in.
STOCK PRIMARY PRODUCT
Alcoa Aluminum
BHP Iron ore, copper, nickel, metallurgical coal
Freeport-McMoRan Copper
Vedanta Iron ore, zinc, copper, lead, steel
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional Steel
Data source: Company presentations. Table by author.
Strong demand from the world's top metals consumer, China, propped up prices even as the reopening of global economies after last year's COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns and expectations of an infrastructure bill under the Biden administration offered support. With governments also pumping trillions of dollars into stimulus packages, demand for commodities shot up.
Within months, several mining stocks were earning their highest profits and cash flows ever, reducing debt aggressively and doling out bumper dividends.
Image source: Getty Images.
Alcoa, for example, reported its highest-ever quarterly profit in July since becoming an upstream aluminum company after its split in 2016. Its numbers fueled several analyst upgrades on Alcoa shares. Vedanta, the India-based diversified oil and gas and metals company, generated a record quarterly profit in its last quarter as well.
This week, BHP reported record free cash flow worth $19.4 billion for its financial year ended June 30, 2021 and announced its highest-ever final dividend of $2 per share. With that, BHP returned a whopping $15 billion to shareholders in just the past year. BHP is now also about to sell its petroleum business in a multi-billion dollar deal, which should shore up its cash balance even more.
Freeport-McMoRan isn't too far behind. Earlier in the year, it adopted a fixed-and-variable hybrid dividend policy under which it aims to pay out an annual base dividend of $0.30 per share and a variable dividend on top of that once the company achieves a net debt target of $3 billion to $4 billion. By the end of June, the copper giant had already hit a net debt of $3.4 billion.
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional, the largest integrated steel producer in Brazil, also hit its net debt target last quarter as its cash flows hit a quarterly record.
So why are these stocks plummeting this week despite such impressive operational performances?
BHP data by YCharts.
Unfortunately, prices of base industrial metals are sinking almost as swiftly as they surged. Picture this: On August 19, iron ore prices slumped to eight-month lows, dropping almost 40% from their record highs in May, dragging steel prices along as steel is made from iron ore. Copper prices too are hitting six-month lows even as I write this.
Metal prices fell primarily because of developments in China. The country's industrial production grew at a much slower pace than anticipated in June, triggering fears about decelerating growth. Its steel output has now declined for two consecutive months as the nation is slapping production controls to curb pollution.
Meanwhile, fears of the Federal Reserve tapering bond purchases are also weighing down on metal prices as reducing bond-buying typically boosts the U.S. dollar, making dollar-priced commodities like metals more expensive for buyers from outside the U.S.
In short, the performance of cyclical, commodity stocks largely follows commodity prices, and that's exactly what's happening with metals and mining stocks right now.
Now what
The sky-high prices of metals weren't sustainable, but prices should stabilize. Aluminum and copper are more sought after than ever given their use in lightweight, electric vehicles, while iron ore and steel are key raw materials used in construction, which makes for a compelling investing proposition under Biden.
Most importantly, many of these mining stocks are much better placed to ride out the cyclicality now that they're flush with cash and have strengthened their balance sheets significantly in recent months. That's something investors may want to keep in mind before dumping their shares in fear.
10 stocks we like better than BHP Group Ltd.
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*Stock Advisor returns as of August 9, 2021
Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-19 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Alcoa Stock Plunged Today
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What happened
Shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) tanked Thursday, closing the day down 11% and marking its steepest fall so far this week. Investors have been excited about the aluminum giant's prospects so far this year, but the optimism appears to be fading.
So what
Alcoa is a pure-play aluminum stock, so the meteoric rise in aluminum prices this year unsurprisingly spurred heavy investor interest in the stock. It's never a one-way ride for Alcoa shares, though, given that it's a commodity stock that typically moves with fluctuations in commodity prices.
That pretty much explains why Alcoa shares fell today. Prices of base metals are headed lower on the back of weak economic data from China, the world's largest metals consumer.
Earlier this week, data coming from China revealed lower-than-expected 6.4% growth in industrial production for July. That's triggered fears of decelerating growth in China, putting metal prices under pressure.
Image source: Getty Images.
The price of aluminum per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, for example, has dipped 2% in the past couple of days after recently hitting multiyear highs. That may seem like an insignificant drop, but Alcoa is considered a bellwether, and a sharper dip in prices of other metals is driving most stocks in the metals and mining sector lower.
The price of copper, for example, is hitting multimonth lows as of this writing, and so is the price of iron ore. Investors fear aluminum prices also could be headed even lower.
Now what
Alcoa recently delivered stellar numbers, including record net income, for its second quarter, thanks almost entirely to higher aluminum prices. The company also was banking on higher prices for a strong second half of 2021.
Needless to say, investors are worried now that metal prices are showing signs of cooling down, and that's weighing down the stock price. That said, Alcoa is on a stronger footing now, and it might be too early to suggest the commodity upcycle is coming to an end. It's a wait-and-watch situation for now.
10 stocks we like better than Alcoa Corporation
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They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Alcoa Corporation wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.
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*Stock Advisor returns as of August 9, 2021
Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-12 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Alcoa Reaches Analyst Target Price
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In recent trading, shares of Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) have crossed above the average analyst 12-month target price of $44.38, changing hands for $44.66/share. When a stock reaches the target an analyst has set, the analyst logically has two ways to react: downgrade on valuation, or, re-adjust their target price to a higher level. Analyst reaction may also depend on the fundamental business developments that may be responsible for driving the stock price higher — if things are looking up for the company, perhaps it is time for that target price to be raised.
There are 8 different analyst targets within the Zacks coverage universe contributing to that average for Alcoa Corporation, but the average is just that — a mathematical average. There are analysts with lower targets than the average, including one looking for a price of $14.00. And then on the other side of the spectrum one analyst has a target as high as $56.00. The standard deviation is $13.276.
But the whole reason to look at the average AA price target in the first place is to tap into a "wisdom of crowds" effort, putting together the contributions of all the individual minds who contributed to the ultimate number, as opposed to what just one particular expert believes. And so with AA crossing above that average target price of $44.38/share, investors in AA have been given a good signal to spend fresh time assessing the company and deciding for themselves: is $44.38 just one stop on the way to an even higher target, or has the valuation gotten stretched to the point where it is time to think about taking some chips off the table? Below is a table showing the current thinking of the analysts that cover Alcoa Corporation:
RECENT AA ANALYST RATINGS BREAKDOWN
» Current 1 Month Ago 2 Month Ago 3 Month Ago
Strong buy ratings: 4 4 4 4
Buy ratings: 0 0 0 0
Hold ratings: 3 3 3 3
Sell ratings: 0 0 0 0
Strong sell ratings: 0 0 0 0
Average rating: 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86
The average rating presented in the last row of the above table above is from 1 to 5 where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell. This article used data provided by Zacks Investment Research via Quandl.com. Get the latest Zacks research report on AA — FREE.
The Top 25 Broker Analyst Picks of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-06 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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XME, MP, CENX, AA: ETF Inflow Alert
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Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the SPDR— S&P— Metals & Mining ETF (Symbol: XME) where we have detected an approximate $110.9 million dollar inflow -- that's a 6.3% increase week over week in outstanding units (from 41,100,000 to 43,700,000). Among the largest underlying components of XME, in trading today MP Materials Corp (Symbol: MP) is up about 3.7%, Century Aluminum Co. (Symbol: CENX) is up about 0.9%, and Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) is up by about 2.2%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the XME Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of XME, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, XME's low point in its 52 week range is $22.36 per share, with $47.85 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $43.10. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
Click here to find out which 9 other ETFs had notable inflows »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-06 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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7 Materials Stocks Ready to Supply the Infrastructure Boom
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InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
The U.S. is pulling out all the stops to modernize its infrastructure. While that word doesn’t inspire a lot of excitement for most investors, it’s a very enticing prospect on the whole.
It means all of the things we rely on to conduct the fundamental business of living our lives will get an upgrade. The magnitude of this is hard to grasp.
For example, the U.S. power grid is so old, Thomas Edison (or Nikola Tesla) would find it familiar. The U.S. interstate highway system was designed in the 1950s and there are bridges and tunnels that are woefully in need of repair. That hamstrings our intermodal commerce.
I could go on. But the point is, investing in infrastructure means infrastructure jobs in the short term and a more vibrant economy in the long term. The materials stocks featured here will be big players in that effort in the U.S., and many will also be global winners.
7 Coronavirus Stocks to Buy as the Delta Variant Rises
Here are 7 materials stocks ready to supply the infrastructure boom:
Alcoa (NYSE:AA)
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF)
Cemex (NYSE:CX)
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)
James Hardie Industries (NYSE:JHX)
ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT)
United States Steel (NYSE:X)
These materials stocks might not be as adrenaline-inducing as the latest meme stocks, but they’re far more reliable. Let’s take a closer look.
Materials Stocks to Support the Infrastructure Boom: Alcoa (AA)
Source: Daniel J. Macy / Shutterstock.com
In 1886, Charles Martin Hall developed a smelting process for aluminum and launched a company in Pittsburgh. By 1907, he had built the Aluminum Company of America, Alcoa for short.
For decades, AA was the first company to report earnings every quarter, illustrating materials stocks’ influence over financial stocks as America grew. This is also reflected in the power of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has become less of economic barometer over the decades.
Today, it’s the No. 8 aluminum producer in the world and remains a major force in the global economy. It currently has operations in seven countries, with customers around the world.
Some price rises in materials stocks have been due to a weakening dollar since most commodities are priced in dollars. But now demand is increasing, which bodes well for AA.
AA has gained 66% year to date yet trades at a P/E of just 17.
The stock has a B rating in my Portfolio Grader.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
Source: Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com
When CLF was founded, James Polk was President of the United States; the nation was busy fighting the Mexican-American War and acquiring the Oregon Territory from the British.
Today, CLF remains a U.S.-based iron ore producer that serves the steel industry through mines in Michigan and Minnesota. U.S.-based materials stocks will be big winners in this infrastructure effort because the Biden administration is committed to bringing back jobs back to the U.S.
With a market cap of nearly $12 billion, this is an important stock in the American industrial commodities sector and should see significant business in coming years. Remember, these infrastructure projects will take years to build.
CLF is up 62% year to date and trades at a current P/E of 15.
7 Coronavirus Stocks to Buy as the Delta Variant Rises
The stock has an A rating in my Portfolio Grader.
Cemex (CX)
CX) mixing truck driving in Santa Clara, California." width="300" height="169">
Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com
When you’re driving around your city or town the next time, look around and see how much cement and concrete are around you — buildings, roads, bridges, houses.
Again, materials stocks are almost camouflaged because we’re so used to seeing them we never really think about how critical they to our daily lives.
Founded in 1906 in Monterrey, Mexico, CX currently operates in more than 30 countries, including the U.S., and distributes its materials in more than 50 countries. It’s the fifth-largest building materials company in the world.
Also remember, offshore drilling rigs also depend on cement to secure their wellheads. The energy industry is a significant consumer of specialized concrete as are other industries.
CX has gained 57% year to date, yet it’s still struggling through pandemic-related slowdowns. However, when the world grows, CX grows.
The stock has a Portfolio Grader A rating.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
FCX) sign on a Freeport-McMoRan office building in Phoenix, Arizona." width="300" height="169">
Source: MICHAEL A JACKSON FILMS / Shutterstock.com
If you’re looking for a globally diversified miner and processor in the materials stocks sector, look no further. US-based FCX mines copper, gold, silver and molybdenum in operations that stretch around the globe. And it’s vertically integrated, so it can sell raw as well as processed materials. FCX has a substantial $52 billion market cap.
Molybdenum first reached the periodic table of elements in 1781 and is used today as a key component in steel alloys. It has the sixth-highest melting point of any element, so it makes high-strength steel used in structural steel and stainless steel. It’s also a key component in armor and weapons-grade materials.
FCX is very much a barometer of the global growth, so it’s a great stock when things are on the upswing. It’s risen 39% year to date and is trading with a current P/E of 19.
7 Coronavirus Stocks to Buy as the Delta Variant Rises
The stock has a Portfolio Grader A rating.
James Hardie Industries (JHX)
Source: Shutterstock
Did you know that 15% of new homes are built with fiber cement siding? Basically, fiber cement is wood pulp, water, fly ash and cement that’s mixed together to form a material that is highly durable and highly versatile. It’s used on homes and on commercial buildings due to its durability and relative affordability.
JHX is the global leader in supplying fiber cement products. It has 10 facilities in the U.S., Asia, Australia and Europe.
This is certainly a niche player, but it’s a significant business sector and a major materials stock with a $15 billion market cap. JHX has been on a run because it’s part of the real estate boom in China and the US, so it isn’t as cheap as the other stocks here. But it offers a direct play in a very hot niche.
JHX is up 18% year to date and trades at a current PE of 59.
The stock has a Portfolio Grader B rating.
ArcelorMittal (MT)
Source: Massimo Todaro / Shutterstock.com
If you’re looking for the king of all materials stocks, MT has to be on the short list. It’s the largest steelmaker in the world.
The crazy thing is, in this world of trillion-dollar market cap companies, MT is a major global materials stock yet has a market cap of just $37 billion.
It’s a vertically integrated player that has mining operations all the way down the production chain to milling cold rolled steel, hot rolled and cold rolled coil, coated steel and plate. It also does flat and tubular steel, which means if you need something made of finished steel, MT has you covered from mine to delivery.
The steelmaker has had a strong run, posting a 51% return year to date. Yet MT is still only trading at a current P/E below 6.
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MT stock has a Portfolio Grader A rating.
United States Steel (X)
Source: Shutterstock
This company was formed by J.P. Morgan in 1901 and was the steel company that built the railroads and shipping fleets, bridges and buildings in the early 20th century. Ironically, most of those bridges and buildings are still in use today.
But X isn’t that powerful engine of commerce that it once was. By the end of the 20th century, most of X’s revenue was from its energy investments. U.S. steel production had been undercut by the globalization of the economy and during the late 20th century, it was cheaper to import steel from Japan and sail it to the U.S. than it was to produce it in the U.S.
But X has been doing well in the 21st century and it’s the second largest steel company in the U.S. X will also be a big beneficiary of the Made in America movement that’s underway now as well. U.S. materials stocks are well positioned and X is near the top of the list.
X has gained 52% year to date, yet it’s trading at a current P/E of just 8.
The stock has a Portfolio Grader A rating.
Disclosure: On the date of publication, Louis Navellier has positions in AA, CLF, CX, KHX and MT. Louis Navellier did not have (either directly or indirectly) any other positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
The InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
The post 7 Materials Stocks Ready to Supply the Infrastructure Boom appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-05 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why This Metal Stock Plunged 19% Amid a Commodities Boom
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What happened
Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) shares bled through Thursday and closed down 19.11% after delivering an unimpressive set of second-quarter numbers. The drop happened despite significantly stronger aluminum markets. Expectations soared after rival Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported its best-ever quarter in mid-July. Century Aluminum shares had gained a whopping 25%, but it took only one day for the stock to give up most of those gains.
So what
As economies reopen, manufacturing is taking off. And demand from China (the world's largest aluminum consumer) remains firm. As a result, aluminum prices have shot up this year to hit historical highs. That's the biggest reason why Alcoa swung to a big profit last quarter. In sharp contrast, Century Aluminum's Q2 net loss widened to $35.1 million from 26.9 million in the year-ago period.
Image source: Getty Images.
Although its net sales increased 31% year over year, this was entirely because of higher prices as shipments declined 9%. Management blamed supply disruptions that delayed the restart of its Mt. Holly aluminum smelter as one of the reasons behind lower shipments.
Also, Century Aluminum projected its Q2 adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to grow $55 million to $60 million. However, it fell short of those estimates, which didn't sit well with investors. The company's cash balance slipped to only $9 million at the end of the second quarter from $81.6 million as of December 30, 2020.
Now what
For now, Century Aluminum is focused on bringing Mt. Holly and another unit online to ramp up capacity, and that means its capital spending will likely be high and cash flows low in the near future.
There's another big problem here: Century Aluminum uses hedging substantially to limit impact from volatile commodity prices, but that's proving to be a costly strategy in a rising-price environment. The company expects to incur a loss of $40 million to $45 million on its hedges at spot metal prices in Q3. That's bound to hit its bottom line, which is the last thing investors want to see during a commodities upcycle.
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Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-04 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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The Top 10 Stocks to Buy According to Analysts
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InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
Retail investors often follow analyst recommendations to figure out which stocks to buy and which ones to avoid. It’s natural to lean on the professionals who get paid to follow companies and report their findings to clients.
Conviction lists are highly followed by investors as a result, and the Goldman Sachs buy list is especially popular. Like the old E.F. Hutton ads, when Goldman Sachs speaks, people listen.
On July 19, the investment bank added Alcoa (NYSE:AA) to its conviction buy list. As I write this, AA stock is up more than 25% since it got the boost.
Analysts can drive stocks higher. It doesn’t matter that they often get it wrong. Buy ratings are gold for investor relations departments.
7 Cheap Value Stocks To Buy For August 2021
So which are the top stocks to buy at the moment, according to analysts? Unfortunately, it’s hard to answer that question objectively. But most of these ten stocks have at least 20 analysts covering them and all have an overall rating of overweight or better:
BHP Group (NYSE:BHP)
Twilio (NYSE:TWLO)
Stellantis (NYSE:STLA)
Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ)
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)
KB Financial Group (NYSE:KB)
Koninklijke Philips (NYSE:PHG)
Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN)
CoStar Group (NASDAQ:CSGP)
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Stocks to Buy: BHP Group (BHP)
Source: Shutterstock
Analyst Ratings: 8 buy, 1 overweight, 4 hold, 2 underweight
Target Price: $78.61
Out of 15 analysts covering BHP stock, only two have a negative rating of the company.
Focused on the mining of iron ore, copper and other minerals as well as the exploration and development of oil and gas, BHP has come a long way over the past year. It has a one-year total return of 50.4% through Aug. 4, putting its valuation at historically high levels.
Perhaps that’s why the analysts’ 12-month target price provides zero upside for investors. Without some catalyst to boost earnings estimates, it appears most of the pros feel a correction is due.
In the meantime, BHP Group has been busy. In its 2021 operational review, BHP shared that it has launched production with four different development projects. These include the company’s South Flank iron ore project in Western Australia and its Ruby oil and gas project in Trinidad and Tobago. All four were on time and on budget.
The analyst consensus for earnings in 2021 is $7.08 per share.
Twilio (TWLO)
TWLO) logo is displayed over a white background on a smartphone screen." width="300" height="169">
Source: rafapress / Shutterstock.com
Analyst Ratings: 26 buy, 1 overweight, 3 hold
Target Price: $476.29
The last time I wrote about TWLO stock was early September 2020. At the time, I was fairly cautious about buying the communications-platform-as-a-service company because it had gone on a big run over the previous year.
Trading near $270 at the time, I thought it would be wise to wait a few weeks to see what happened to its stock. After that, I thought there was a chance investors could pick it up for less. By mid-September, it had fallen to $225, but that was as low as it went. By February 2021, it was trading at an all-time high of $457.30.
It cooled off in May, but now TWLO stock is closing in on $400 as I write this. Its valuation has gotten even pricier — it now trades at 26.5x sales.
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While the analysts love Twilio, I believe it’s an excellent long-term buy over the next three to five years. I think the smart play is to wait for TWLO to retreat again. Since the beginning of 2020, Twilio has had five decent-sized corrections. As the multiple goes even higher, I don’t see that trend changing anytime soon.
Stocks to Buy: Stellantis (STLA)
Analyst Ratings: 16 buy, 1 overweight, 3 hold
Target Price: $24.40
On July 26, Stellantis announced the establishment of the Stellantis Design Studio. The business will provide outside companies and its own brands with design services. The Design Studio’s offerings won’t be exclusive to transportation companies, mimicking what other car manufacturers are doing today.
“Looking back on our brand portfolio, Stellantis designers have created some of the most exciting and visually appealing vehicles in automotive history,” creative director Arnault Gournac stated according to Motor Authority. “We plan to take that creative energy and offer our key competencies to our global external partners to help them take their brand and design projects to the next level.”
When you have all this high-priced talent, why not keep them busy when they’re not working on in-house design projects?
Stellantis continues to get lost in the conversation about car and truck companies. Investors do so at their peril.
In mid-July, Stellantis held its electric vehicle (EV) Day. It announced it would spend 30 million Euros ($35.6 billion) on low-emission vehicles (LEVs) over the next five years. By 2030, it expects 40% of its U.S. sales from LEVs and 70% in Europe. It will even bring out an electric-powered Dodge muscle car.
Electrification is coming and Stellantis intends to make it to the party. Better late than never.
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Source: ShinoStock / Shutterstock.com
Analyst Ratings: 14 buy, 2 overweight, 8 hold
Target Price: $266. 55
Constellation Brands is best known for Corona and Modelo beer, Kim Crawford wine, Casa Noble tequila and Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC) cannabis. However, it recently branched out into an entirely new category.
On July 28, Constellation Brands announced it would acquire a minority stake in Hop Wtr, a sparkling water product infused with adaptogens and nootropics. Their goal is to provide a healthy alternative for those who may not drink alcohol.
Constellation Ventures vice president Jennifer Evans stated, “The functional beverage category continues to show strong potential and is well-aligned with today’s growing consumer preferences for wellness and betterment.”
In the press release, she added that the company’s founders “have taken a consumer-first approach in building a great product and brand, and through this investment we expect to learn more about what resonates with consumers in this fast-growing space.”
In March 2020, I recommended investors looking to bet on cannabis should buy STZ stock. I still believe that, and I feel that Constellation is one of the best-run companies in the beverage industry.
Its investment in Hop Wtr shows the company is dipping its toe in the water to understand the functional beverages marketplace. Additionally, the move is less expensive than buying a big chunk of Canopy Growth.
6 A-Rated, Safe Stocks to Buy With Dividends
It’s a smart move. Being first-in for an industry rarely equates to being the most successful company in a sector.
Stocks to Buy: ConocoPhillips (COP)
Source: JHVEPhoto / Shutterstock.com
Analyst Ratings: 24 buy, 5 overweight, 2 hold
Target Price: $75.78
I’m not a fossil fuel fan, but it’s hard not to notice ConocoPhillips’s overall analyst rating.
If a buy rating is worth 5 points and a sell is worth 1, stocks with more buys get higher overall ratings. So in ConocoPhillips’s case, a perfect score for 31 analysts covering its stock would be 155. Its current score is 146, or 94% of its total possible score.
At the end of June, ConocoPhillips said it would increase its 2021 share buybacks by $1 billion to $6 billion, or nearly 8% of its current market capitalization of $77 billion. It also expects to find $1 billion in annual savings from its integration of Concho Resources, which it acquired in January for $10 billion.
I’m a free cash flow (FCF) nut. So the fact that ConocoPhillips plans to generate $70 billion in FCF throughout its 10-year plan (its estimate is based on a $50 barrel of oil with a 2% inflation increase cooked in) explains why analysts are sold on its stock.
Over the same period, it plans to return $65 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases. But, unfortunately, that doesn’t leave much room for acquisitions or debt repayment.
But hey, the analysts love it.
KB Financial Group (KB)
Source: shutterstock.com/CC7
Analyst Ratings: 13 buy, 3 overweight
Target Price: $62.49
The South Korean financial services company held its second quarter 2021 conference call on July 22. Its results were very healthy. Revenue increased by 14.2% over Q2 2020 to 12.24 trillion South Korean Won ($10.69 billion). Additionally, the company’s net profit was 1.21 trillion South Korean Won ($1.06 billion).
KB Financial operates several companies that specialize in banking, investment banking, insurance, asset management and other financial services.
In December 2020, Jefferies Financial Group (NYSE:JEF) entered into a co-branding alliance with KB Securities to provide equity research, sales and trading in South Korea. The research would be produced by KB Securities analysts and co-branded to Jefferies clients around the world.
7 Growth Stocks to Buy to Make Early Retirement a Reality
It is the kind of arrangement that Asian companies seem far more comfortable with than American businesses. Hence, it’s good to see Jefferies partnering with South Korea’s largest financial conglomerate by assets.
Stocks to Buy: Koninklijke Philips (PHG)
Source: JPstock / Shutterstock.com
Analyst Ratings: 10 buy, 1 overweight, 9 hold
Target Price: $59.54
I don’t know about you, but the first thing I think of when I hear Philips is light bulbs. In the neighborhood where I grew up, I hung around with a kid whose dad ran the lightbulb business in Canada. Of course, Philips is so much more. Its purpose is to keep people healthy and well.
In 2011, approximately 44% of its annual revenue was generated by health-related products and services. By 2020, it was most of its overall business. By 2025, it plans to have revenues of 23 billion Euros ($27.3 billion), all of it from its health and wellness products.
At the end of March, based on Phillips’ trailing 12-month (TTM) sales, it generated 39% of its revenue in North America, 22% in Western Europe and another 10% in other mature markets. 29% of revenue came from emerging growth economies.
In Q1 2021, its TTM free cash flow was 1.96 billion Euros ($2.32 billion). Moreover, its market cap of $40.6 billion has an FCF yield of 4.8%, which provides investors with growth at a reasonable price.
Philips deserves a closer look.
Waste Connections (WCN)
Source: Jordi_Cor / Shutterstock.com
Analyst Ratings: 16 buy, 1 overweight
Target Price: $133.50
If there’s a diamond in the rough in this list, Waste Connections would have to be it. It probably has to do with the fact it’s based in Toronto and not somewhere in the U.S.
Dumpster rentals, waste management services and garbage pickup — Waste Connections does it all. Serving more than seven million residential and commercial customers in 43 states and six Canadian provinces, it has grown into the third-largest solid waste company in North America. It generates 87% of its revenue in the U.S. despite being based in Toronto.
Make no mistake — long-time shareholders are pleased with their investment. For example, if you invested $10,000 in WCN a decade ago, today it’s worth six-fold, or about $59,000.
As page seven of its presentation shows, Waste Connections’ 10-year total shareholder return is 1.4 times higher than that of Waste Management (NYSE:WM) and Republic Services (NYSE:RPG), its two larger peers. Against the S&P 500, the 10-year total shareholder return is 1.8 times higher than the index.
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It flies under the radar, but WCN stock delivers for shareholders just the same.
Stocks to Buy: CoStar Group (CSGP)
Source: Casimiro PT / Shutterstock.com
Analyst Ratings: 10 buy, 1 overweight, 2 hold
Target Price: $102.73
Back in February, I recommended CoStar’s stock and nine other companies that were trading around $1,000. It split 10-for-1 on June 28.
Although it has gained nearly 6% since my recommendation, CoStar’s stock has definitely underperformed in 2021. It’s down 7.4% YTD.
That’s okay. In the long term, you will make money owning CSGP stock. On July 27, the company released its Q2 2021 results. They were impressive. Revenues rose 21% to $480 million.
As I said earlier, I’m an FCF nut. Its TTM FCF is $410 million. However, as the company continues to accelerate growth through acquisitions like Homes.com, which it purchased in May for $156 million, its FCF generation will also accelerate.
CoStar currently has a 1% FCF yield, but I could see that rising to 2% to 3% in the next year or two. Add multiple expansion to its valuation and you’ve got a recipe for future gains.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Source: gguy / Shutterstock.com
Analyst Ratings: 31 buy, 5 overweight, 2 hold
Target Price: $323.50
Microsoft’s analyst rating score is 178 out of 190 possible points. Like ConocoPhillips earlier, it’s 94% perfection. Not to mention the analyst target price provides for a nearly 13% upside. And we all know if Microsoft keeps delivering strong quarters, those targets will be adjusted much higher.
On July 27, Microsoft reported Q4 2021 earnings. They were a thing of beauty. Sales increased 21% and net income was up 47%. FCF for the entire year was $56.1 billion, 24% higher than in 2020.
However, what really caught my attention was the news that LinkedIn’s annual revenue was more than $10 billion in fiscal 2021. Its fourth quarter saw 46% year-over-year growth.
In fiscal 2017, LinkedIn had annual revenue of $2.27 billion. Four years later, it’s now more than $10 billion. In February 2017, I said that LinkedIn was vital to the future of MSFT stock.
It’s not a coincidence that a gain of more than 340% in LinkedIn revenues over the past four years resulted in a similar gain in MSFT stock.
Yes, Microsoft’s Azure cloud business did the heavy lifting. But LinkedIn was indicative of the changes happening at the company — good ones, at that.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
The post The Top 10 Stocks to Buy According to Analysts appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-08-02 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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7 Infrastructure Stocks to Buy as America Rebuilds
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InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
Despite the contentious rancor and partisan noise about what President Joe Biden’s administration would look like, the ride itself has been rather mundane. Based on talking points from the left and right, it appears Biden frustrates much of Washington for ultimately doing very little. However, a landmark national investment could change this political dynamic and potentially bolster infrastructure stocks.
While high-profile events such as rejoining the Paris Agreement are made for cable news drama, substantively, there hasn’t been much to be excited or upset about. However, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal will have serious implications. The bill is a $1.2 trillion initiative to implement Biden’s “Build Back Better” campaign promise and addresses:
Transportation
Clean water
Universal broadband
Clean power
Remediation of legacy pollution
Efforts to address climate change
To be fair, this ambitious plan will not be easy. While the current version of the deal was settled on by a bipartisan group of senators, Republicans and Democrats can have trouble seeing eye to eye. For instance, a recent Reuters report indicated that partisan squabbles erupted during negotiations. Still, the conflict hasn’t deterred President Biden. He recently traveled to Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania to raise support for the buildout initiative.
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Further, while many of us are happy to have some semblance of normalcy return, the reality is that the economic recovery has been disjointed. Possibly the best way to address the growing wealth gap is for the federal government to modernize our underlying networks. As the bill makes its way through Congress, keep an eye on these seven infrastructure stocks:
Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC)
Mueller Water Products (NYSE:MWA)
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)
Crown Castle International (NYSE:CCI)
Alcoa (NYSE:AA)
Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN)
Albemarle (NYSE:ALB)
Before you jump on this trade, note that the bill was only finalized on Aug. 1. The proposal still has to maneuver its way through an evenly split Senate and a contentious House, where some Democrats are not happy about the negotiated terms. However, the necessity of a buildout could win politicians over and boost these infrastructure stocks.
Infrastructure Stocks: Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
VMC) website is displayed on a smartphone screen." width="300" height="169">
Source: madamF / Shutterstock.com
As this country’s largest producer of construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-based materials, no discussion of infrastructure stocks is complete without Vulcan Materials. Basically, VMC stock puts the build in “Build Back Better.”
Not surprisingly, Vulcan Materials has enjoyed strong support from investors. Over the trailing year, shares are up almost 54%. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, VMC stock has already gained nearly 22%. This compares favorably to the benchmark exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), which is up 34% over the year and 17% YTD.
Granted, betting on infrastructure stocks is no surefire bet. As I mentioned earlier, the proposal must still go through the rest of the Senate and the House. And the divide isn’t just based on interparty issues, but intraparty disagreements as well.
However, a report from The Hill revealed that most American voters support the infrastructure bill. That would leave opposing politicians who are up for reelection in a pickle. Besides, Vulcan is a critical investment, so you almost can’t go wrong here.
Mueller Water Products (MWA)
Source: Shutterstock
Over the last several weeks, mainstream media reports have been hammering home the message of America’s water crisis. For instance, The New York Times reported that water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead dropped to historic lows amid an ongoing drought. This is incredibly problematic considering they are two of the nation’s largest reservoirs.
Sure enough, improving clean water infrastructure is one of the top priorities for this White House. In a roundabout way, this bolsters the case for Mueller, which offers solutions for industrial and commercial water and gas infrastructure systems.
What makes Mueller a particularly intriguing stock is Echologics, its water infrastructure diagnostic-focused brand. Its technologies are geared towards water loss management, pipe condition assessment and leak detection.
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Admittedly, addressing a large-scale lack of water will probably require incredible technological advancements we don’t have right now — such as an economically viable way to desalinate ocean water. But what we can do is make effective use of our present-day resources. Therefore, investors should consider MWA shares for their portfolio of infrastructure stocks.
Infrastructure Stocks: Caterpillar (CAT)
CAT) logo on it" width="300" height="169">
Source: astudio / Shutterstock.com
One of the most bizarre things I’ve heard from former President Donald Trump was his puzzling argument against Japan-based Caterpillar competitor Komatsu (OTCMKTS:KMTUY).
In an MSNBC interview in June 2015, Trump stated, “People are buying Komatsu tractors instead of Caterpillar tractors. I’m telling you, we’re in trouble.” At a Republican debate he reiterated his claims, alleging the de-valued yen was preventing sales of Caterpillar tractors.
Perhaps the biggest irony, though, is that while Trump trumpeted Caterpillar, CAT stock didn’t perform well throughout most of his tenure. Adding insult to injury, CAT shares instead responded well to Biden’s electoral win. As of Aug. 2, shares are up 13% YTD.
To be fair, CAT stock probably would have gone up irrespective of who won the 2020 election. Other demand channels — such as housing — have jumped higher throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Thus, CAT stock may be a name you can trust over the long haul.
Crown Castle International (CCI)
CCI) logo on a web browser highlighted through the lens of a magnifying glass" width="300" height="169">
Source: Casimiro PT / Shutterstock.com
The Biden administration is aggressively pushing for stronger connectivity infrastructure, making Crown Castle International a no-brainer.
Granted, you could potentially generate more profit from individual wagers on the industry. But CCI shares are perfect for conservative investors because they’re a broader play on infrastructure stocks. Rather than betting on which team wins the competition, CCI stock is about selling tickets to the game — and those tickets will be in high demand.
According to its website, Crown Castle has more than 25 years of experience with owning and operating network assets. Additionally, the company controls more than 40,000 towers and has approximately 80,000 small cells on air or under contract. With the rollout of 5G and other digital innovations such as cloud computing, Crown Castle has never been more relevant.
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Most importantly, taking the lead in 5G is a top priority for our rival nations, especially China. The race to control critical technologies has no political affiliation. And given that China currently ranks unfavorably within the international community, the U.S. is unlikely to shelve its 5G efforts anytime soon. Therefore, CCI stock is a worthwhile infrastructure buy.
Infrastructure Stocks: Alcoa (AA)
Source: Daniel J. Macy / Shutterstock.com
Alcoa benefitted from the Covid-19 pandemic, but its stock was not looking pretty when the trade war between the U.S. and China got underway. As a Bloomberg report from September 2019 stated:
“When aluminum demand last contracted during the financial crisis and unwanted metal started flooding into warehouses, it took more than a decade to work through the glut. Now, the market is bracing for another sharp increase in inventories as demand growth grinds to a halt.
Aluminum has tumbled to a two-and-a-half-year low as slowing global growth and the U.S.-China trade war hurt demand for the metal used in airplanes, automobiles and beer cans.”
Today, we have the opposite situation. Shortages and inflationary pressures are bolstering the aluminum market. Suddenly, AA stock is looking hot.
Over the trailing year, Alcoa shares skyrocketed 204%. On a YTD basis, AA stock is up 68%. Better yet, the underlying political conditions are supporting infrastructure stocks like Alcoa. Watch this stock closely, as its financial profile has improved since the worst of the pandemic last year.
Olin Corporation (OLIN)
Source: Shutterstock
Olin Corporation is what I would call a two-fer opportunity. First, the company’s chemical manufacturing business — specifically its chlor alkali products and vinyls — and epoxy tech make it a relevant yet underappreciated infrastructure stock.
For instance, the Biden White House wants to invest in renewable energy technologies such as wind turbines. But every year, these systems undergo operations under intense environments. Olin’s epoxy products and services keep wind energy blades running perfectly.
If that angle doesn’t work out, then OLN stock has another card to play: ammunition. Under the Olin brand is Winchester, one of the most recognized names in the ammunition business. Purchases of firearms are up, and supply chain disruptions have dramatically increased the cost of ammo.
7 Dividend Stocks To Buy as Treasury Yields Tumble
Today, ammo is well worth its weight in gold — check out OLN’s performance as evidence. On a YTD basis, shares are up nearly 90% and they appear poised to drive even higher.
Infrastructure Stocks: Albemarle (ALB)
Source: IgorGolovniov/Shutterstock.com
One of the top priorities of the Biden administration — if not the top priority — is the advancement of clean transportation networks. Naturally, this bodes well for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers and, more to the point, EV infrastructure stocks.
With so much interest in this space, there are plenty of options among EV charging station providers — you probably know the names I’m thinking about. However, I’m getting skeptical about this industry. EVs cater to higher-income folks and are far too expensive for average households — unless you want to sacrifice features like a wheel or usable space.
In this context, Albemarle offers a great compromise. Known for its lithium production business, it plays a significant role in the EV rollout. In fact, earlier this year, management stated that it will double lithium production at its Silver Peak facility in Nevada by 2025.
Admittedly, investors should be aware of the impact of lithium mining on the environment. This contradicts the popular ethos of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing. Nevertheless, on a net basis, Albemarle arguably does more good than harm.
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.
The post 7 Infrastructure Stocks to Buy as America Rebuilds appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-07-26 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Noteworthy Monday Option Activity: AA, STZ, AAL
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Among the underlying components of the Russell 3000 index, we saw noteworthy options trading volume today in Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA), where a total of 43,474 contracts have traded so far, representing approximately 4.3 million underlying shares. That amounts to about 45.3% of AA's average daily trading volume over the past month of 9.6 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $39 strike call option expiring August 20, 2021, with 5,080 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 508,000 underlying shares of AA. Below is a chart showing AA's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $39 strike highlighted in orange:
Constellation Brands Inc (Symbol: STZ) saw options trading volume of 4,039 contracts, representing approximately 403,900 underlying shares or approximately 43.6% of STZ's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 925,940 shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $205 strike put option expiring September 17, 2021, with 786 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 78,600 underlying shares of STZ. Below is a chart showing STZ's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $205 strike highlighted in orange:
And American Airlines Group Inc (Symbol: AAL) saw options trading volume of 146,293 contracts, representing approximately 14.6 million underlying shares or approximately 43.2% of AAL's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 33.9 million shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $22 strike call option expiring July 30, 2021, with 16,933 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.7 million underlying shares of AAL. Below is a chart showing AAL's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $22 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for AA options, STZ options, or AAL options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
Today's Most Active Call & Put Options of the S&P 500 »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-07-25 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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COLUMN-Aluminium producers struggle to respond to higher prices: Andy Home
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By Andy Home
LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - Global aluminium production growth ground to a halt in the second quarter of this year even as prices rallied to multi-year highs on both London and Shanghai markets.
Annualised run-rates dropped by 120,000 tonnes after rising by 590,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2021, according to the latest figures published by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). (https://tmsnrt.rs/3kLdDEb)
China, the world's largest producer, continued to lift operating rates, unsurprisingly given Shanghai prices hit an 11-year high in June and the country's demand has been running red hot.
However, the supply response to super-high prices has been muted by past standards, attesting to a string of power-related constraints on smelters in several Chinese provinces.
In the rest of the world annualised run-rates have been gently sliding since March. First-half production of 13.04 million tonnes was up only 0.7% year on year, with China driving the headline 4.4% increase in global output.
Which on current evidence is being outstripped by demand growth, particularly in China, which still can't produce enough primary metal to supply the domestic market.
APPLYING THE BRAKES
China imported another 294,081 tonnes of primary and alloy aluminium last month, extending an import trend that has been running since the second quarter of last year.
Although national aluminium production rose by 7.3% year on year in January-June, it is clear the Chinese market is running short of metal.
The government appears to think the same, scheduling another round of state reserve sales, including 90,000 tonnes of aluminium, for July 29.
Chinese smelter production growth decelerated over the second quarter with output growing only 1.7% relative to the first quarter.
The IAI's estimates differ slightly from the official Chinese figures but both are currently capturing the same theme of stalling impetus.
Drought conditions in Yunnan - a hub of hydro-powered aluminium production - have led to smelter curtailments which will pass with the arrival of seasonal rains.
Less transient will be the government's dual control energy policy, which targets steady improvements in both energy consumption and intensity as China embarks on the road to carbon-neutrality by 2060.
Several provinces have already fallen behind on their targets, which triggered capacity curtailments in Inner Mongolia earlier this year.
On paper there is plenty of potential for further Chinese aluminium production growth. Annualised production is nudging up against the 40-million tonne level, compared with a government cap of 45 million tonnes.
But power constraints are now acting as a gentle continuous brake on new capacity growth and the pressures on a smelter sector still overwhelmingly dependent on coal will only grow.
Chinese provinces accounting for close to 65% of national production capacity missed one or both energy targets in the first quarter of this year, according to U.S. producer Alcoa's AA.N second-quarter results presentation.
HIGH MARGINS, LOWER PRODUCTION
Alcoa reported its highest-ever quarterly net income since the company's inception in its current form in 2016. Realised pricing jumped more than 60% year on year on a combination of strong London Metal Exchange prices and super-strong physical premiums.
Other producers are reaping a similar windfall, but that didn't stop first-half aluminium output dropping across all regions with the exception of Latin America, non-China Asia and Western Europe, the latter notching up a meagre 0.4% year-on-year rise.
A 15% year-on-year jump in Latin American production is flattered by the partial curtailment of two smelters in the first half of 2020 - Brazil's Albras (fire) and Argentina's Aluar (COVID-19).
India was a core driver of an 8% increase in first-half aluminium production in Asia outside of China. The country's biggest producer Vedanta Ltd reported a 17% jump in calendar second-quarter output.
However, the collective supply response to higher prices outside of China appears to have peaked in February of this year, when annualised output hit 26.48 million tonnes. By June the rate was back at 26.04 million tonnes, the lowest monthly outcome since November last year.
RESTARTS?
Restarts of idled capacity are back on the aluminium agenda.
Norway's Hydro NHY.OL has just completed the reactivation of a 100,000-tonne per year potline at its Husnes smelter. The line was idled in 2009 in the wake of the price hit generated by the global financial crisis.
Alcoa AA.N Chief Financial Officer William Oplinger told an industry conference in May that the company was evaluating several restart options in the light of the transformation in market dynamics.
Alumar, a 447,000-tonne smelter in Brazil that has been out of action since March 2015, is a front-runner. As reported by Fastmarkets, Oplinger said "we'd be looking for an energy contract (...), in the mid-term, to get that plant up and running."
Other producers will surely be doing the same as both futures prices and physical premiums march higher.
However, the production lift thus far has been restrained in China and anaemic in the rest of the world.
That feeds into the emerging bull narrative of a market facing structural supply issues, first and foremost in China, the powerhouse of aluminium production growth for most of this century.
Global aluminium production growth grinds to a half in the second quarterhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3kLdDEb
(Editing by David Evans)
((andy.home@thomsonreuters.com, 44-207-542-4412 and on Twitter https://twitter.com/AndyHomeMetals))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-07-23 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Alcoa Stock Is Soaring This Week
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What happened
During earnings season, one often gets to see glaring examples of how irrational the stock markets can be. How else do you explain a stock slumping right after it reports its strongest quarterly numbers in years? That's what happened with Alcoa (NYSE: AA) shares after the aluminum company reported its earnings on July 15.
But as is also often the case, investors soon sensed an opportunity, and Alcoa stock has bounced back remarkably this week -- it's up 14.4% so far this week as of 9:40 a.m. EDT Friday.
So what
Alcoa reported its second-quarter numbers on July 15 after market close. It was the company's strongest quarter since 2016, when it became an independent upstream aluminum company after the-then Alcoa split into two.
Here are some notable numbers from Alcoa's Q2 report:
Average realized price of aluminum up 63% year over year;
Revenue up 31.9% year over year;
Record net income of $309 million versus a net loss of $197 million in Q2 2020; and
Total debt of $2.3 billion and cash balance of $1.65 billion as of the end of the quarter.
In short, it was a stellar quarter. Why then did Alcoa shares fall after earnings?
Image source: Getty Images.
One reason is that despite strong profits, Alcoa generated negative cash from operations as it used a significant chunk of cash to add to its pension fund. But with the company now having funded 90% of its global pension requirement, Alcoa's cash flows could improve in the coming quarters if aluminum prices remain firm.
Investors also realized that the sell-off in Alcoa shares wasn't logical given its upbeat outlook for the rest of the year. To top that, several analysts jumped in and upgraded their price targets on Alcoa shares this week for multiple reasons. While Citi put a price target of $52 a share on Alcoa, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs believe Alcoa is worth $51 a share. With so many analysts seeing such huge upside in the stock, Alcoa was bound to rally.
Now what
Alcoa is on strong footing right now for one big reason: soaring aluminum prices thanks to high demand from sectors like automotive, driven by the economy's reopening and manufacturing restarts. That's boosting the company's cash reserves and fortifying its balance sheet, which could go a long way in helping Alcoa ride out the cyclicality in commodity markets. Long-term investors understand this and have therefore wasted no time in bidding Alcoa shares higher.
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Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-07-23 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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XME, MP, RGLD, AA: ETF Outflow Alert
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Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the SPDR— S&P— Metals & Mining ETF (Symbol: XME) where we have detected an approximate $213.2 million dollar outflow -- that's a 11.1% decrease week over week (from 45,750,000 to 40,650,000). Among the largest underlying components of XME, in trading today MP Materials Corp (Symbol: MP) is up about 1.9%, Royal Gold Inc (Symbol: RGLD) is off about 0.9%, and Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) is lower by about 0.9%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the XME Holdings page » The chart below shows the one year price performance of XME, versus its 200 day moving average:
Looking at the chart above, XME's low point in its 52 week range is $22.36 per share, with $47.85 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $41.60. Comparing the most recent share price to the 200 day moving average can also be a useful technical analysis technique -- learn more about the 200 day moving average ».
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade just like stocks, but instead of ''shares'' investors are actually buying and selling ''units''. These ''units'' can be traded back and forth just like stocks, but can also be created or destroyed to accommodate investor demand. Each week we monitor the week-over-week change in shares outstanding data, to keep a lookout for those ETFs experiencing notable inflows (many new units created) or outflows (many old units destroyed). Creation of new units will mean the underlying holdings of the ETF need to be purchased, while destruction of units involves selling underlying holdings, so large flows can also impact the individual components held within ETFs.
Click here to find out which 9 other ETFs experienced notable outflows »
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-07-22 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Kaiser Aluminum Stock Slumped Today Despite 169% Sales Growth
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What happened
Kaiser Aluminum (NASDAQ: KALU) shares went on a roller-coaster ride today. By 11:20 a.m. EDT, the aluminum stock was down 12.8% as Kaiser reported a big net loss for its second quarter. That was in sharp contrast to rival Alcoa's (NYSE: AA) recently reported quarterly earnings -- Alcoa shares soared on the day of its earnings release.
Investors, however, seem to have found green shoots in Kaiser's otherwise seemingly morbid quarterly numbers, which is why the stock regained some ground and closed Thursday down only 5.8%.
So what
Kaiser Aluminum released its second-quarter earnings report after market close on July 21.
Kaiser's net sales surged 168.5% year over year to $741 million, with value-added products making up nearly 43% of its total sales. In April, Kaiser acquired Alcoa's Warrick rolling mill, which boosted its value-added revenue by nearly 82% in Q2. The acquisition marked Kaiser's reentry into the lucrative aluminum packaging industry (think food and beverage packaging).
Image course: Getty Images.
However, Kaiser's net loss more than tripled to $22 million in Q2, which is why investors were miffed. But if you exclude one-time charges like a tax charge, Kaiser's adjusted net income of $16 million was a huge improvement over its adjusted net income of $6 million in the year-ago quarter.
Now what
Kaiser's outlook for the rest of the year suggests the sell-off in its shares wasn't entirely warranted. Kaiser is beginning to see a recovery in several end markets, such as aerospace and automotive thanks to the economy's reopening and the pickup in air travel.
Packaging, meanwhile, looks like a promising growth avenue, with industry experts pegging the industry to grow by mid-single digit compound annual rates over the next five years or so. Kaiser, in fact, sees packaging as a significant growth opportunity, so much so that it expects revenue from value-added products to hit $2 billion in the long term.
Kaiser expects to spend $400 million in capital expenditures over the next few years to expand its key rolling mill Westwood in Washington, and add roll coating manufacturing capacity at Warrick. That sounds like a plan, and is something long-term investors should keep in mind.
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Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-07-20 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Why Alcoa Stock Popped Today
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What happened
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) shares shot through the roof on Tuesday, jumping as high as 10.7% as of 2:40 p.m. EDT. With yet another analyst joining the bandwagon who believes Alcoa shares have significant upside ahead, more and more investors are betting on the stock.
So what
Morgan Stanley turned bullish about the metals and mining sector in June and singled out Alcoa as a top pick. This morning, Morgan Stanley reiterated its buy rating on the stock and thinks it could be worth $51 per share. That's a whopping 62% upside from Alcoa's Tuesday opening price of around $31.55 a share. Morgan Stanley believes the company could earn $0.94 per share in its third quarter versus a loss in the year-ago period.
Morgan Stanley isn't the only one that sees Alcoa performing so well. Just yesterday, Goldman Sachs added Alcoa to its conviction buy list and upped its price target on the stock to $51 a share. Goldman Sachs is betting on rising aluminum prices; sees Alcoa's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rising by 20% for every 10% increase in aluminum prices; and believes the company's efforts to deleverage should boost capital returns.
On July 16, Citi upgraded its rating on Alcoa stock to buy with a price target of $52 a share, again driven by the company's efforts to strengthen its balance sheet, among other things.
Image source: Getty Images.
So what's behind this flurry of analyst upgrades, you may ask? It's Alcoa's stellar second-quarter numbers released on July 15.
Alcoa reported its highest-ever quarterly net income since it became an upstream aluminum company after splitting into two in 2016. Alcoa's average realized aluminum price shot up more than 60% year over year and it paid down debt worth $750 million in the second quarter. With $1.65 billion cash on hand, Alcoa's net debt (total debt minus cash and equivalents) was only $642 million as of the end of quarter.
Now what
With aluminum prices showing no signs of slowing down and demand for the metal from China remaining strong, Alcoa is upbeat about the rest of the year. It foresees a strong third quarter driven by higher shipments across all its segments -- bauxite, alumina, and aluminum.
Importantly, Alcoa expects double-digit growth in sales of value-add products, which include slab, foundry, rods, and billet this year. Value-add is a part of its aluminum segment, and although Alcoa doesn't provide a breakdown of its contribution to its top line, a slump in demand for value-add products from sectors like automotive was a big reason why the company's earnings fell last year.
In short, analysts' expectations that Alcoa's operational performance will continue to impress isn't unwarranted; and despite aluminum prices hitting record highs in recent weeks, the stock is still trading at less than half the P/E ratio it commanded in 2017. That should leave investors with a lot to think about, while also keeping in mind the cyclicality of commodity markets.
10 stocks we like better than Alcoa Corporation
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Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-07-19 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Shares of AA Now Oversold
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In trading on Monday, shares of Alcoa Corporation (Symbol: AA) entered into oversold territory, changing hands as low as $30.995 per share. We define oversold territory using the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a technical analysis indicator used to measure momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A stock is considered to be oversold if the RSI reading falls below 30.
In the case of Alcoa Corporation, the RSI reading has hit 29.6 — by comparison, the universe of metals and mining stocks covered by Metals Channel currently has an average RSI of 34.3, the RSI of Spot Gold is at 45.0, and the RSI of Spot Silver is presently 36.1. A bullish investor could look at AA's 29.6 reading as a sign that the recent heavy selling is in the process of exhausting itself, and begin to look for entry point opportunities on the buy side.
Looking at a chart of one year performance (below), AA's low point in its 52 week range is $10.98 per share, with $44.42 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $31.46. Alcoa Corporation shares are currently trading down about 4.5% on the day.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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2021-07-16 00:00:00+00:00
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AA
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Wall Street Has High Hopes for These 2 Unsung Stocks
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The stock market played out a familiar theme on Friday, with major market benchmarks initially losing ground but clawing back losses as the day progressed. Market participants aren't sure how to handle the current inflationary pressures hitting the economy, but central bank policymakers show no signs of changing their strategy in managing monetary policy. As of 12:30 p.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) was down 77 points to 34,910. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) fell 7 points to 4,353, and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) was lower by 14 points to 14,529.
Even when the market is struggling, smart investors continue to look at the fundamental prospects for businesses. Several Wall Street analysts gave positive comments on individual stocks on Friday, and two of the most interesting calls were on Cintas (NASDAQ: CTAS) and Alcoa (NYSE: AA). Below, we'll look at what the analysts had to say and investors' reactions to the news.
Uniformly smart
Shares of Cintas were up 4% on Friday at midday. The uniform and business services provider has been hitting record highs ever since shortly after the coronavirus bear market in early 2020, and things are looking up for the company's future.
Today's positive comments about Cintas came from a host of analysts. Baird upgraded the stock from neutral to outperform, saying it believes that Cintas offers true growth opportunities that should help boost the stock, with valuations that aren't unreasonably high. Barclays and Credit Suisse boosted their price targets on the stock, while analysts at William Blair argued that Thursday's brief sell-off following the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report offered a rare bargain opportunity.
Cintas does well when the economy does well, and with people going back to work, the company has a chance to shine. Moreover, its facility services include cleaning, and the pandemic's heightened awareness of public health issues should lead to more growth in that arena even if COVID-19 case counts diminish further.
Investors looking for a stock with a great track record of gains should look closely at Cintas. The business isn't sexy, but the returns longtime shareholders have earned certainly are.
Image source: Getty Images.
Can Alcoa shine?
Elsewhere, Alcoa's stock fell 4%. The move came despite favorable analyst comments, as investors reacted to the aluminum specialist's latest earnings.
Alcoa's results looked good. The company set records for quarterly net income and earnings per share, bouncing back from losses a year ago. Sales jumped 32% from year-earlier levels, as Alcoa benefited from an environment of higher prices and demand that led to greater shipment volume.
Analysts at Citi jumped on the bandwagon, upgrading Alcoa from neutral to buy and setting a $52-per-share price target. As Citi sees it, Alcoa's approach to capital allocation is a big asset for the company, and shareholders can expect a mix of dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment into its aluminum business.
However, Alcoa is in a cyclical business, and when investors get skeptical about future growth, they often punish cyclical stocks. The market might be getting too pessimistic about a potential reversal in the turnaround that the global economy is undergoing, but until more optimism prevails, Alcoa might not see its stock rebound as much as some think it should.
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Dan Caplinger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Cintas. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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