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time-series
time-series-decomposition
benchmark
component-recovery
symbolic-regression
icml-2026
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| """ | |
| Core synthetic time-series generator. | |
| This module implements the configuration dataclass plus component builders for | |
| trend, seasonal/cycle, noise, and events. The main entry point is | |
| `generate_series`, which returns all components for downstream benchmarking. | |
| """ | |
| from __future__ import annotations | |
| import math | |
| from dataclasses import asdict, dataclass, field | |
| from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Sequence, Tuple | |
| import numpy as np | |
| class SeriesConfig: | |
| """Configuration describing a single synthetic time-series scenario.""" | |
| length: int = 512 | |
| dt: float = 1.0 | |
| trend_type: str = "none" | |
| trend_params: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict) | |
| cycle_types: List[str] = field(default_factory=list) | |
| cycle_params_list: List[Dict[str, Any]] = field(default_factory=list) | |
| noise_type: str = "white" | |
| noise_params: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict) | |
| event_type: str = "none" | |
| event_params: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict) | |
| snr_level: str = "medium" | |
| random_seed: Optional[int] = None | |
| def make_time_axis(length: int, dt: float = 1.0) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]: | |
| """ | |
| Return time indices `t` and normalized time `u` in [0, 1]. | |
| Args: | |
| length: Number of time steps. | |
| dt: Sampling interval. | |
| Returns: | |
| Tuple of (t, u) arrays with shape `(length,)`. | |
| """ | |
| t = np.arange(length, dtype=float) * dt | |
| u = np.linspace(0.0, 1.0, length) | |
| return t, u | |
| def _center_and_scale(x: np.ndarray, target_amp: float = 1.0) -> np.ndarray: | |
| """Center component and scale to target amplitude (max abs).""" | |
| if not np.any(x): | |
| return np.zeros_like(x) | |
| centered = x - np.mean(x) | |
| max_abs = np.max(np.abs(centered)) | |
| if max_abs < 1e-12: | |
| return np.zeros_like(centered) | |
| return centered * (target_amp / max_abs) | |
| def _moving_average(x: np.ndarray, window: int) -> np.ndarray: | |
| """Simple moving average with same-length output.""" | |
| window = max(1, int(window)) | |
| if window == 1: | |
| return x | |
| kernel = np.ones(window) / window | |
| return np.convolve(x, kernel, mode="same") | |
| def make_trend( | |
| t: np.ndarray, | |
| u: np.ndarray, | |
| trend_type: str, | |
| params: Dict[str, Any], | |
| ) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, Dict[str, Any]]: | |
| """ | |
| Generate trend component T(t) according to `trend_type`. | |
| Supported trend_type: | |
| - "none" | |
| - "linear" | |
| - "poly" | |
| - "exp" | |
| - "logistic" | |
| - "piecewise" | |
| - "rw_smooth" | |
| """ | |
| trend_type = (trend_type or "none").lower() | |
| params = dict(params or {}) | |
| length = len(t) | |
| if trend_type == "none": | |
| return np.zeros(length), {} | |
| if trend_type == "linear": | |
| slope = params.get("slope", np.random.uniform(-2.0, 2.0)) | |
| intercept = params.get("intercept", 0.0) | |
| raw = slope * (u - 0.5) + intercept | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| return _center_and_scale(raw, amplitude), { | |
| "slope": slope, | |
| "intercept": intercept, | |
| "amplitude": amplitude, | |
| } | |
| if trend_type == "poly": | |
| degree = int(params.get("degree", 2)) | |
| coeffs = params.get("coeffs") | |
| if coeffs is None: | |
| coeffs = np.random.uniform(-1.0, 1.0, degree + 1) | |
| raw = np.polyval(coeffs, u * 2 - 1) | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| return _center_and_scale(raw, amplitude), { | |
| "degree": degree, | |
| "coeffs": list(np.asarray(coeffs).tolist()), | |
| "amplitude": amplitude, | |
| } | |
| if trend_type == "exp": | |
| alpha = params.get("alpha", 0.5) | |
| beta = params.get("beta", 2.0) | |
| raw = alpha * np.exp(beta * (u - 0.5)) | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| return _center_and_scale(raw, amplitude), { | |
| "alpha": alpha, | |
| "beta": beta, | |
| "amplitude": amplitude, | |
| } | |
| if trend_type == "logistic": | |
| K = params.get("K", 1.0) | |
| r = params.get("r", 10.0) | |
| u0 = params.get("u0", 0.5) | |
| raw = K / (1.0 + np.exp(-r * (u - u0))) | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| return _center_and_scale(raw, amplitude), { | |
| "K": K, | |
| "r": r, | |
| "u0": u0, | |
| "amplitude": amplitude, | |
| } | |
| if trend_type == "piecewise": | |
| num_breaks = params.get("num_breaks", np.random.randint(1, 3)) | |
| breakpoints = params.get( | |
| "breakpoints", | |
| sorted(np.random.uniform(0.2, 0.8, num_breaks)), | |
| ) | |
| slopes = params.get( | |
| "slopes", | |
| np.random.uniform(-2.0, 2.0, len(breakpoints) + 1), | |
| ) | |
| values = np.zeros_like(u) | |
| last_u = 0.0 | |
| value = 0.0 | |
| bp_iter = breakpoints + [1.0] | |
| for idx, bp in enumerate(bp_iter): | |
| mask = (u >= last_u) & (u <= bp) | |
| interval_u = u[mask] - last_u | |
| values[mask] = value + slopes[idx] * interval_u | |
| if interval_u.size: | |
| value = values[mask][-1] | |
| last_u = bp | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| return _center_and_scale(values, amplitude), { | |
| "breakpoints": breakpoints, | |
| "slopes": list(np.asarray(slopes).tolist()), | |
| "amplitude": amplitude, | |
| } | |
| if trend_type == "rw_smooth": | |
| step_scale = params.get("step_scale", 0.3) | |
| smooth_window = params.get("smooth_window", length // 20 or 5) | |
| increments = np.random.normal(0.0, step_scale, length) | |
| raw = np.cumsum(increments) | |
| smooth = _moving_average(raw, smooth_window) | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| return _center_and_scale(smooth, amplitude), { | |
| "step_scale": step_scale, | |
| "smooth_window": smooth_window, | |
| "amplitude": amplitude, | |
| } | |
| raise ValueError(f"Unsupported trend_type '{trend_type}'.") | |
| def make_cycle( | |
| t: np.ndarray, | |
| u: np.ndarray, | |
| cycle_type: str, | |
| params: Dict[str, Any], | |
| ) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, Dict[str, Any]]: | |
| """ | |
| Generate a single cycle component S(t) for a given cycle_type. | |
| Supported cycle_type: | |
| - "single_sine" | |
| - "multi_harmonic" | |
| - "sawtooth" | |
| - "square" | |
| - "multi_seasonal" | |
| - "amp_modulated" | |
| - "freq_drifting" | |
| - "regime_cycle" | |
| """ | |
| length = len(t) | |
| cycle_type = (cycle_type or "single_sine").lower() | |
| params = dict(params or {}) | |
| def _default_period() -> float: | |
| return params.get("period", np.random.uniform(20.0, 80.0)) | |
| if cycle_type == "single_sine": | |
| period = _default_period() | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| phase = params.get("phase", np.random.uniform(0, 2 * np.pi)) | |
| comp = amplitude * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / period + phase) | |
| return comp, {"period": period, "amplitude": amplitude, "phase": phase} | |
| if cycle_type == "multi_harmonic": | |
| base_period = params.get("base_period", np.random.uniform(30.0, 60.0)) | |
| harmonics = int(params.get("harmonics", 3)) | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| coeffs = params.get("coeffs", np.random.uniform(0.3, 1.0, harmonics)) | |
| comp = np.zeros(length) | |
| for idx in range(1, harmonics + 1): | |
| comp += coeffs[idx - 1] * np.sin(2 * np.pi * idx * t / base_period) | |
| comp = _center_and_scale(comp, amplitude) | |
| return comp, { | |
| "base_period": base_period, | |
| "harmonics": harmonics, | |
| "coeffs": list(np.asarray(coeffs).tolist()), | |
| "amplitude": amplitude, | |
| } | |
| if cycle_type == "sawtooth": | |
| period = _default_period() | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| saw = 2 * ((t / period) % 1) - 1 | |
| return amplitude * saw, {"period": period, "amplitude": amplitude} | |
| if cycle_type == "square": | |
| period = _default_period() | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| square = np.sign(np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / period)) | |
| return amplitude * square, {"period": period, "amplitude": amplitude} | |
| if cycle_type == "multi_seasonal": | |
| periods = params.get( | |
| "periods", | |
| [np.random.uniform(20.0, 40.0), np.random.uniform(60.0, 120.0)], | |
| ) | |
| amplitudes = params.get("amplitudes", [0.7, 0.5]) | |
| comp = np.zeros(length) | |
| used_periods: List[float] = [] | |
| used_amplitudes: List[float] = [] | |
| for per, amp in zip(periods, amplitudes): | |
| comp += amp * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / per) | |
| used_periods.append(per) | |
| used_amplitudes.append(amp) | |
| return comp, {"periods": used_periods, "amplitudes": used_amplitudes} | |
| if cycle_type == "amp_modulated": | |
| carrier_period = params.get("carrier_period", _default_period()) | |
| amp0 = params.get("amp0", 0.5) | |
| amp1 = params.get("amp1", 1.5) | |
| modulation = amp0 + (amp1 - amp0) * u | |
| comp = modulation * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / carrier_period) | |
| return comp, { | |
| "carrier_period": carrier_period, | |
| "amp0": amp0, | |
| "amp1": amp1, | |
| } | |
| if cycle_type == "freq_drifting": | |
| period0 = params.get("period0", np.random.uniform(30.0, 70.0)) | |
| delta = params.get("delta", np.random.uniform(-15.0, 15.0)) | |
| amplitude = params.get("amplitude", 1.0) | |
| inst_period = period0 + delta * u | |
| inst_freq = 1.0 / np.maximum(inst_period, 1e-3) | |
| dt = t[1] - t[0] if len(t) > 1 else 1.0 | |
| phase = 2 * np.pi * np.cumsum(inst_freq) * dt | |
| comp = amplitude * np.sin(phase) | |
| return comp, { | |
| "period0": period0, | |
| "delta": delta, | |
| "amplitude": amplitude, | |
| } | |
| if cycle_type == "regime_cycle": | |
| split = params.get("split", 0.5) | |
| amp_a = params.get("amp_a", 1.0) | |
| amp_b = params.get("amp_b", 0.4) | |
| per_a = params.get("period_a", np.random.uniform(25.0, 40.0)) | |
| per_b = params.get("period_b", np.random.uniform(50.0, 80.0)) | |
| comp = np.zeros(length) | |
| split_idx = int(length * split) | |
| comp[:split_idx] = amp_a * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t[:split_idx] / per_a) | |
| comp[split_idx:] = amp_b * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t[split_idx:] / per_b) | |
| return comp, { | |
| "split": split, | |
| "amp_a": amp_a, | |
| "amp_b": amp_b, | |
| "period_a": per_a, | |
| "period_b": per_b, | |
| } | |
| raise ValueError(f"Unsupported cycle_type '{cycle_type}'.") | |
| def make_all_cycles( | |
| t: np.ndarray, | |
| u: np.ndarray, | |
| cycle_types: Sequence[str], | |
| cycle_params_list: Sequence[Dict[str, Any]], | |
| ) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, List[Dict[str, Any]]]: | |
| """Sum multiple cycle components, returning the aggregate and metadata.""" | |
| cycle_types = list(cycle_types or []) | |
| cycle_params_list = list(cycle_params_list or []) | |
| if cycle_types and len(cycle_types) != len(cycle_params_list): | |
| raise ValueError("cycle_types and cycle_params_list must align in length.") | |
| if not cycle_types: | |
| return np.zeros(len(t)), [] | |
| total = np.zeros(len(t)) | |
| details: List[Dict[str, Any]] = [] | |
| for c_type, c_params in zip(cycle_types, cycle_params_list): | |
| comp, used = make_cycle(t, u, c_type, c_params) | |
| total += comp | |
| details.append({"type": c_type, "params": used}) | |
| return total, details | |
| def make_noise( | |
| length: int, | |
| noise_type: str, | |
| params: Dict[str, Any], | |
| ) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, Dict[str, Any]]: | |
| """ | |
| Generate noise sequence eps_t. | |
| Supported noise_type: | |
| - "none" | |
| - "white" | |
| - "ar1" | |
| - "arma" | |
| - "garch_like" | |
| - "bursty" | |
| """ | |
| noise_type = (noise_type or "white").lower() | |
| params = dict(params or {}) | |
| if noise_type == "none": | |
| return np.zeros(length), {} | |
| if noise_type == "white": | |
| sigma = params.get("sigma", 0.5) | |
| eps = np.random.normal(0.0, sigma, length) | |
| return eps, {"sigma": sigma} | |
| if noise_type == "ar1": | |
| phi = params.get("phi", 0.6) | |
| sigma = params.get("sigma", 0.5) | |
| eps = np.zeros(length) | |
| innovations = np.random.normal(0.0, sigma, length) | |
| for i in range(1, length): | |
| eps[i] = phi * eps[i - 1] + innovations[i] | |
| return eps, {"phi": phi, "sigma": sigma} | |
| if noise_type == "arma": | |
| phi = params.get("phi", 0.5) | |
| theta = params.get("theta", 0.4) | |
| sigma = params.get("sigma", 0.4) | |
| eps = np.zeros(length) | |
| innovations = np.random.normal(0.0, sigma, length) | |
| for i in range(1, length): | |
| eps[i] = phi * eps[i - 1] + innovations[i] + theta * innovations[i - 1] | |
| return eps, {"phi": phi, "theta": theta, "sigma": sigma} | |
| if noise_type == "garch_like": | |
| omega = params.get("omega", 0.1) | |
| alpha = params.get("alpha", 0.3) | |
| beta = params.get("beta", 0.5) | |
| sigma = np.zeros(length) | |
| eps = np.zeros(length) | |
| sigma[0] = math.sqrt(omega / (1 - alpha - beta + 1e-6)) | |
| for i in range(1, length): | |
| sigma[i] = math.sqrt( | |
| omega + alpha * eps[i - 1] ** 2 + beta * sigma[i - 1] ** 2 | |
| ) | |
| eps[i] = sigma[i] * np.random.normal() | |
| return eps, {"omega": omega, "alpha": alpha, "beta": beta} | |
| if noise_type == "bursty": | |
| sigma = params.get("sigma", 0.3) | |
| burst_sigma = params.get("burst_sigma", 1.5) | |
| num_bursts = params.get("num_bursts", max(1, length // 100)) | |
| burst_len = params.get("burst_len", max(3, length // 50)) | |
| eps = np.random.normal(0.0, sigma, length) | |
| for _ in range(num_bursts): | |
| start = np.random.randint(0, length - burst_len + 1) | |
| eps[start : start + burst_len] += np.random.normal( | |
| 0.0, burst_sigma, burst_len | |
| ) | |
| return eps, { | |
| "sigma": sigma, | |
| "burst_sigma": burst_sigma, | |
| "num_bursts": num_bursts, | |
| "burst_len": burst_len, | |
| } | |
| raise ValueError(f"Unsupported noise_type '{noise_type}'.") | |
| def make_events( | |
| length: int, | |
| event_type: str, | |
| params: Dict[str, Any], | |
| ) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, Dict[str, Any]]: | |
| """ | |
| Generate event component E(t), e.g. level shifts and spikes. | |
| Supported event_type: | |
| - "none" | |
| - "level_shift" | |
| - "spikes" | |
| - "mixed" | |
| """ | |
| event_type = (event_type or "none").lower() | |
| params = dict(params or {}) | |
| if event_type == "none": | |
| return np.zeros(length), {} | |
| events = np.zeros(length) | |
| shift_points_used: List[int] = [] | |
| spike_idx_used: List[int] = [] | |
| if event_type in {"level_shift", "mixed"}: | |
| num_shifts = params.get("num_shifts", 1) | |
| shift_magnitude = params.get("shift_magnitude", 1.0) | |
| points = params.get("shift_points") | |
| if points is None: | |
| start = max(1, length // 4) | |
| end = max(start + 1, length - length // 4) | |
| candidate = np.arange(start, end) | |
| count = min(num_shifts, len(candidate)) | |
| if count > 0: | |
| points = sorted( | |
| np.random.choice(candidate, count, replace=False).tolist() | |
| ) | |
| else: | |
| points = [] | |
| shift_points_used = list(points) | |
| for idx, point in enumerate(points): | |
| events[point:] += shift_magnitude * (idx + 1) | |
| if event_type in {"spikes", "mixed"}: | |
| num_spikes = params.get("num_spikes", max(1, length // 40)) | |
| spike_magnitude = params.get("spike_magnitude", 2.5) | |
| spike_idx = params.get("spike_idx") | |
| if spike_idx is None: | |
| count = min(num_spikes, length) | |
| if count > 0: | |
| spike_idx = np.random.choice(length, count, replace=False).tolist() | |
| else: | |
| spike_idx = [] | |
| spike_idx_used = list(spike_idx) | |
| if spike_idx: | |
| events[spike_idx] += spike_magnitude * np.random.choice( | |
| [-1, 1], len(spike_idx) | |
| ) | |
| used_params = { | |
| k: v | |
| for k, v in { | |
| "num_shifts": params.get("num_shifts", len(shift_points_used)), | |
| "shift_magnitude": params.get("shift_magnitude"), | |
| "shift_points": shift_points_used, | |
| "num_spikes": params.get("num_spikes", len(spike_idx_used)), | |
| "spike_magnitude": params.get("spike_magnitude"), | |
| "spike_idx": spike_idx_used, | |
| }.items() | |
| if v is not None | |
| } | |
| return events, used_params | |
| def scale_noise_to_snr( | |
| signal: np.ndarray, | |
| noise: np.ndarray, | |
| snr_level: str = "medium", | |
| ) -> np.ndarray: | |
| """ | |
| Rescale noise to achieve a rough SNR level ("low", "medium", "high"). | |
| SNR here is defined as signal_rms / noise_rms. | |
| """ | |
| snr_targets = {"high": 5.0, "medium": 2.0, "low": 1.0} | |
| target = snr_targets.get((snr_level or "medium").lower(), 2.0) | |
| signal_rms = np.sqrt(np.mean(signal**2)) if np.any(signal) else 0.0 | |
| noise_rms = np.sqrt(np.mean(noise**2)) if np.any(noise) else 0.0 | |
| if noise_rms == 0.0: | |
| return np.zeros_like(noise) | |
| if signal_rms == 0.0: | |
| return noise | |
| desired_noise_rms = signal_rms / target | |
| scale = desired_noise_rms / noise_rms | |
| return noise * scale | |
| def generate_series(config: SeriesConfig) -> Dict[str, Any]: | |
| """ | |
| Generate a synthetic time series with components y = T + S + E + eps. | |
| Args: | |
| config: Series configuration. | |
| Returns: | |
| Dict containing arrays for the components and metadata. | |
| """ | |
| if config.random_seed is not None: | |
| np.random.seed(config.random_seed) | |
| t, u = make_time_axis(config.length, config.dt) | |
| trend, trend_info = make_trend(t, u, config.trend_type, config.trend_params) | |
| cycle_types = list(config.cycle_types or []) | |
| cycle_params_list = list(config.cycle_params_list or []) | |
| if len(cycle_params_list) < len(cycle_types): | |
| cycle_params_list.extend( | |
| {} for _ in range(len(cycle_types) - len(cycle_params_list)) | |
| ) | |
| elif len(cycle_params_list) > len(cycle_types): | |
| cycle_params_list = cycle_params_list[: len(cycle_types)] | |
| cycles, cycle_info = make_all_cycles( | |
| t, | |
| u, | |
| cycle_types, | |
| cycle_params_list, | |
| ) | |
| events, event_info = make_events( | |
| config.length, config.event_type, config.event_params | |
| ) | |
| noise, noise_info = make_noise( | |
| config.length, config.noise_type, config.noise_params | |
| ) | |
| clean = trend + cycles + events | |
| noise_scaled = scale_noise_to_snr(clean, noise, config.snr_level) | |
| y = clean + noise_scaled | |
| meta = { | |
| "config": asdict(config), | |
| "trend": {"type": config.trend_type, "params": trend_info}, | |
| "cycles": cycle_info, | |
| "events": {"type": config.event_type, "params": event_info}, | |
| "noise": {"type": config.noise_type, "params": noise_info}, | |
| "snr_level": config.snr_level, | |
| } | |
| return { | |
| "t": t, | |
| "y": y, | |
| "trend": trend, | |
| "season": cycles, | |
| "events": events, | |
| "noise": noise_scaled, | |
| "clean": clean, | |
| "meta": meta, | |
| } | |