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BOONTON, NJ. – The snack maker Our Home is acquiring the R.W. Garcia and Good Health brands as well as three manufacturing plants from Utz Brands, Inc. for approximately $182.5 million.
R.W. Garcia is a tortilla chip manufacturer and Good Health offers snacks in a variety of formats, including pretzels, vegetable chips, popcorn, puffs and fries. The three manufacturing facilities are in Lincolnton, NC; Lititz, Pa.; and Las Vegas.
“These acquisitions will diversify Our Home brands across a variety of salty snack categories, reinforcing our position as a leading independent better-for-you snacking platform,” said Aaron Greenwald, chief executive officer of Our Home. “We are proud to be building a platform and team that’s dedicated to creating and delivering our products and promise to customers.”
Other brands owned by Our Home include Food Should Taste Good, Popchips, Real Food From the Ground Up and You Need This.
Once the transaction closes, the companies will begin a reciprocal co-manufacturing arrangement with Our Home manufacturing certain Utz products and Utz manufacturing certain Good Health products. The Good Health products also will continue to be distributed through Utz’s direct-store delivery network.
During a Nov. 9 conference call to discuss third quarter results, Howard A. Friedman, CEO of Utz Brands, said the company was seeking ways to optimize its supply chain.
“We expect these transactions to deliver on our supply chain transformation and value creation initiatives, to fast-track our deleveraging timeline by a full year, and to accelerate our brand portfolio strategy to better optimize for growth,” he said of the Our Home transaction. “With this important step in the optimization of our supply chain and brand portfolio, together with immediate benefits to free cash flow from lower interest expense, we are well-positioned to execute against our expansion plans across the US and deliver on our margin target.”
Specifically, the transaction is expected to provide approximately $150 million in after-tax net proceeds, which Utz will use to pay down its long-term debt, according to the company. The debt reduction is expected to lower interest expense by approximately $12 million in fiscal 2024 based on the company’s current outlook for interest rates, and to accelerate Utz’s plan for achieving its target of approximately 3.0-times net leverage by a full year from the end of fiscal 2026 to the end of fiscal 2025.
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https://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/60786-our-home-hauls-in-some-utz-assets
| 2024-01-31T23:09:56Z
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Fraser Minten has been a busy man for the Saskatoon Blades, both in offensive production and representing the team at the sport’s highest levels.
Acquired in a blockbuster deal with the Kamloops Blazers in November, Minten has come as advertised with eight goals and 18 points scored for Saskatoon since the deal, including a highlight-reel overtime winner on Sunday against the Swift Current Broncos.
From starting the season in the National Hockey League with the Toronto Maple Leafs to captaining Team Canada at the 2024 World Junior Hockey Championships, Minten has been well-traveled in his 19-year-old season but has since found a role down the middle with the Blades.
Speaking with Global Saskatoon’s Scott Roblin, Minten discusses his early days in the sport, growing up a Vancouver Canucks fan and his abilities skiing compared to his skills on the ice.
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https://globalnews.ca/news/10264433/blades-bio-january-2024-fraser-minten/
| 2024-01-31T23:09:56Z
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Manchester United plotting major transfer to make £51m wonderkid the first signing of the INEOS era: report
Manchester United are entering a new era thanks to investment from Sir Jim Ratcliffe's INEOS group – will they keep spending big?
Manchester United are said to be pondering a big-money move for highly-rated Atalanta centre-back Giorgio Scalvini.
The 20-year-old has proven his prodigious talent by already establishing himself in Serie A, with Atalanta currently trying to tie him down to a new long-term deal.
But any contract extension may prove immaterial, with United reportedly keen to bring Scalvini to Old Trafford.
According to Italian outlet Calciomercato (via TEAMTALK), the Red Devils are firmly in the race to sign Scalvini, who is understood to be valued at up to €60m (£51.2m).
It goes without saying that would be an enormous amount of money to pay for such a young player – but United have previous in making such acquisitions, and from Atalanta too...
Scalvini's former teammate Rasmus Hojlund left for Old Trafford last summer in a £72m deal, just six months after his 20th birthday. And back in 21, United signed Jadon Sancho, then 21, from Borussia Dortmund for £73m.
OK, the latter move has not worked out – Sancho ended up falling out with manager Erik ten Hag and returned to Dortmund on loan earlier this month – but recent windows have seen the 13-time Premier League champions continue to splash the cash in the transfer market.
Whether such lavish spending will continue with the arrival of new investors INEOS remains to be seen, but burgeoning prospects such as Scalvini ought to be the kind of players on which United look to build solid foundations for a successful future.
Capped seven times by Italy at senior level already, Scalvini – who joined Atalanta's youth system from that of Brescia in 2015 – has racked up 74 senior appearances for Atalanta, including six in the Europa League.
More Manchester United stories
Man United star Andre Onana makes sensational quit threat amid heated row
Marcus Rashford has already agreed Old Trafford exit, with PSG rekindling transfer pursuit
Red Devils eye £40m transfer deal to beat Real Madrid in race for wonderkid
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https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/manchester-united-transfer-news-man-utd-manu-plotting-major-transfer-to-make-pound51m-wonderkid-the-first-signing-of-the-ineos-era-report-signings-rumours-gossip-paper-talk-mufc-ggmu
| 2024-01-31T23:09:57Z
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Intel is home to some of the best and most trusted CPUs out there, powering both desktops and laptops in 2024. The company's processor lineup has grown significantly over the years, leaving us with several generations of processors that continue to evolve even now. However, the growing list of processors in Intel's stable makes it extremely hard to keep track of their names, model numbers, and suffixes.
Team Red's nomenclature isn't anything to rave about either, but it isn't as convoluted or confusing as Intel's, which has made several changes to its mobile processor branding over the years. It can be incredibly challenging to identify and choose the best CPU for your PC without knowing the different brand names and suffixes that Intel uses for its processors. To help you identify each processor at a glance, let's examine the naming practices and learn what each one means.
Intel Core mobile processor suffixes
Intel has changed the way it identifies its mobile chips plenty of times over the years, with each new naming convention bringing a new set of model numbers and suffixes. The company changed things in a big way with its 11th generation processors. It essentially changed the way it identified its Core chips that are built for everyday laptops versus the ones that were designed for use in thin and light models. It retired the U-series and Y-series designators for SKUs that ended with 0 (Core i7-1160G7) and 5 (Core i5-1135G7) indicators to identify high and lower wattage CPUs in the UP3 and UP4 class. Notably, it also used the last two characters of each product number to signal whether the CPU has integrated graphics (G), and if so, how advanced (G1, G4, and G7).
Intel then followed up with its 12th generation Alder Lake H-series (Core i9-12900HK), P-series (Core i7-1280P), and U-series (Core i7-1265U) chips. The company has once again changed its naming convention for the new Meteor Lake chips by dropping the "Gen" and "i" branding from its CPUs and by splitting the Core chips into the regular Core series and the new Core Ultra series. The new Intel Core and Core Ultra processors use only H and U suffixes, but here's a quick look at the ones they've used over the years:
Intel Core desktop processor suffixes
Intel's desktop processor names haven't changed a lot over the years, making it fairly easy to keep track of them. Below is a quick look at all the commonly used suffixes you'll come across while browsing Intel's desktop processor lineup:
It's worth noting that both X and XE suffixes are no longer in use, as they were used to denote Intel's 10th generation X-series and Extreme Edition processors from 2019.
How to identify your Intel processor
A simple way to identify your CPU
There are a few different ways to identify your CPU, but here's one that's relatively easy and doesn't require you to download and install any third-party application. We'll use the System Information app on Windows for this, which is essentially a central hub that carries all the vital system information. To use it:
- Open the Start menu, and type msinfo.
- Click System Information.
- Click the System Summary option on the left sidebar to reveal all the details of your PC, including the processor.
Closing thoughts
It's crucial to know the make and model of the processor that's installed on your PC to fully understand its capabilities and determine whether it suits your needs and usage habits. The last thing you want to do is buy a processor that's either too powerful or otherwise not worth considering for your workload. It's getting increasingly difficult to keep track of all the processors that are coming out, and Intel's nomenclature format can be particularly overwhelming due to its laundry list of processors. The company has introduced the new Core Ultra CPU branding for its mainstream lineup, but it remains to been seen how this new branding will age over time as the lineup grows.
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https://www.xda-developers.com/guide-intel-processor-suffixes/
| 2024-01-31T23:09:57Z
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Senate Republicans demanded that President Biden's national security funding package for Ukraine be tied to policy changes to address the crisis at the southwest border. But now that negotiators say they are ready to release details of a bipartisan plan to reduce the surge of migrants at the border, Republican divisions could scuttle the plan.
Months of negotiations between the Republicans, Democrats and the Biden administration officials are now threatened by politics. Former President Trump, the GOP's likely 2024 presidential nominee, has been publicly slamming the deal and urging lawmakers to oppose it.
Negotiators started the week promising to release a bill in the coming days. But by Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell appeared to signal he's ready to move on, and focus on getting money to two key U.S. allies at war.
"It's time for us to move something, hopefully including the border agreement, but we need to get help to Israel and Ukraine, quickly," McConnell, R-Ky., told reporters.
McConnell has consistently argued that divided government is the moment to extract demands on border policy from Democrats.
Pressed about what voters would think of GOP lawmakers who sink a bill because Trump directed them to, McConnell sidestepped the question. "I still favor trying to make law when you can" and said what the bipartisan group is working on is better than current immigration law, adding, "you're asking me, a question I can't answer right now, which is the fate of it."
Senators already know key details
The top Democratic negotiator working on a border plan, Chris Murphy, D-Conn., has signaled for days that the deal is basically done, but getting sign off from the GOP to move ahead is the hold up.
"We have a bipartisan agreement to help address the crisis at the border. Republicans have been desperate for that. Why would they walk away from it?"
Senate Republicans huddled at their weekly lunch on Wednesday to discuss next steps, but the consensus coming out of the meeting was that lawmakers want to see the details.
But after weeks of negotiations, the key provisions have already been explained to lawmakers from both parties.
The bill includes several tools to address the border, including: giving the president the ability to shutdown the border if the numbers of migrants attempting to enter the U.S. climbs above a certain threshold, adjusting the rules for who qualifies for asylum and allowing migrants authorization to work while awaiting adjudication of their asylum claim.
Extended negotiations opened space for critics
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said the effort is "an uphill climb" because as the talks have continued, some members have impressions about what the proposal will do and "there are certain people who will never change their mind."
Tillis has said a border plan needs to get the majority of Senate Republicans in order to move ahead. But Trump injecting himself into the process has caused many lawmakers to refrain from backing the framework, making it tougher to meet that test.
Oklahoma GOP Sen. Jim Lankford is crafting the plan along with Murphy and Independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Lankford spent time on Sunday talk shows swatting down leaks about the plan that conservative media outlets are painting as a green light for 5,000 additional migrants a day.
Texas Republican Sen, John Cornyn, who was an early advocate of linking money for Ukraine to changes to the Biden administration's policies, said people need time to see an official piece of legislation.
"People are talking about what they think is in it, and what they've heard is in it, what's not in it,' Cornyn told reporters. "I think the first thing we need to do is see where the conference is based on the text rather than just based on rumors and hearsay."
Tillis called Wednesday's meeting "a good discussion." But added, "I would ask those same members who are calling for time to read it, but not judge something they haven't read."
Others who came out against the bill already are already dismissing the proposals.
"I think this is a bad bill," Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tx., told reporters. "And the simplest reason is it doesn't solve the problem."
Cruz blamed Senate Democrats for crafting a bill that "allows Joe Biden to continue the open borders," despite the months of bipartisan negotiations that have taken place. President Biden endorsed the proposal and said last week if Congress passes it he would immediately shutdown the border.
Some optimisim remains
Murphy remained optimistic on Wednesday that the deal would survive and come to the floor for a vote, possibly as soon as this week.
He said a "sizable, important group of Republican senators" are making a good faith effort to get something done on the border, and suggested that others are making disingenuous arguments about needing to see the full text.
"This is not a detailed study of the issue. This is a question as to whether they are going to put Trump before solving the problem," Murphy said.
Copyright 2024 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.
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https://www.wusf.org/2024-01-31/senate-gop-split-risks-bipartisan-border-deal-as-trump-looms-large
| 2024-01-31T23:09:58Z
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Watermelon seeds are one of the commonly generated fruit wastes but have the potential to be utilized for different functional food formulations due to the presence of a substantial quantity of proteins that are identified for various beneficiary effects.
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| 2024-01-31T23:09:59Z
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Scientists have found that spiderwebs can be used to capture environmental DNA, which reflects the animal population of an area. The technique may help track the biodiversity of an ecosystem.
Copyright 2024 NPR
Scientists have found that spiderwebs can be used to capture environmental DNA, which reflects the animal population of an area. The technique may help track the biodiversity of an ecosystem.
Copyright 2024 NPR
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https://www.wypr.org/2024-01-31/spiderwebs-could-offer-a-snapshot-of-an-ecosystem-study-shows
| 2024-01-31T23:10:00Z
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REVEALED: The Premier League's biggest transfer 'flop of the season'
Manchester United and Chelsea are among the Premier League's top spenders this term
It would be unfair to call Manchester United goalkeeper Andre Onana the worst Premier League signing of the season, says Ally McCoist.
Onana has drawn widespread criticism for his unconvincing performances since United shelled out the best part of £50m to bring him in from Inter Milan last summer.
And McCoist is among the critics – but the thinks there's someone else who stands out as the Premier League's biggest flop of 2023/24.
In an interview with talkSPORT BET, the infectiously enthusiastic Scot said: "Andre Onana has been nothing like the signing everyone thought he would be for Manchester United, but I’m not giving him ‘flop of the season so far’; I think that’s ever so slightly harsh.
"But Moises Caicedo [of Chelsea], I saw him a couple of times, particularly at Old Trafford with Enzo Fernandez in the middle of the park, and both of them were, for a quarter of a billion pounds, not great… Caicedo would certainly get my vote over Onana."
Rasmus Hojlund is another United player with his fair share of sceptics, having scored just two Premier League goals since his £72m move from Atalanta in July, but McCoist was full of praise for the young Dane. He continued:
"I know Hojlund hasn’t been scoring as regularly, particularly domestically, as Man United fans would want, but there’s a willingness there; there’s an eagerness there – a desire – which a lot of the United fans – the majority if not all of them – can see."
At the opposite end of the scale, McCoist named West Ham's Mohammed Kudus, a £38m summer acquisition from Ajax, as his signing of the season so far.
"He has been magic," he said, "coming in from the right with that left foot...terrific – a breath of fresh air."
More transfer stories
Arsenal face transfer battle as race for 'next Bukayo Saka' intensifies
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https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/revealed-the-premier-leagues-biggest-transfer-flop-of-the-season
| 2024-01-31T23:10:03Z
|
If you have Microsoft Copilot on your Windows PC and you find it more annoying than useful, it's quite easy to disable. Microsoft hasn't quite integrated Copilot into the broader PC experience just yet (although that may change with Windows 12), and you can turn it off in just a few simple steps.
Ways to disable Microsoft Copilot on Windows
Hide it from your taskbar
Disabling Copilot on Windows is pretty straightforward and requires only a few steps:
- Click the Windows Start button on the taskbar.
- Type settings to open the Settings app.
- Go to Personalization and then Taskbar, and toggle off the Copilot item.
That's it! Copilot is now disabled. This removes Copilot from the taskbar, but the Windows key+C key combination will still work. There are some additional steps to take if you want Copilot completely removed from your PC.
Disable Copilot with Group Policy
If you'd rather disable Copilot across your whole computer, you can use your Group Policy settings to do this. This requires a Windows 11 Pro or Windows 11 Enterprise subscription. If you don't have either of those, scroll down to the "Disable Copilot using the Windows Registry" section instead.
To use Group Policy settings:
- Click the Windows Start button on the taskbar.
- Type Group policy and open it.
- Go to User Configuration, Administrative Templates, Windows Components, and then Windows Copilot.
- Right click Turn-off Windows Copilot and set this function to Enabled.
Once you've rebooted, Copilot should be completely disabled. You won't even be able to use it through the keyboard shortcut.
Disable Copilot using the Windows Registry
If you want to totally disable Copilot and are using Windows 11 Home Edition, the Windows registry is the only way to do that. Be warned, though, that mistaken edits to the registry can cause irreversible damage to your Windows installation. If that happens, you may need to reinstall your operating system, so be very careful.
With that warning, follow these steps:
- Press Windows key+R.
- Type "regedit" and then click Yes to allow Registry Editor to make changes.
- Go to HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Policies\Microsoft\Windows.
- Right-click Windows on the left and select New key.
- Name the key WindowsCopilot, and then click it.
- Right-click in the pane on the right.
- Hover over New and select DWORD (32-bit) value.
- Name it TurnOffWindowsCopilot, click it, and set the value to 1.
Once you've done this, reboot your PC. Copilot is now disabled on your current user account.
All of these steps are perfectly viable for disabling Copilot. However, we recommend just hiding it from your taskbar. If you really want Copilot gone, use the Group Policy editor, but as mentioned above, be very careful when mucking around in the Windows registry. This is a vital and fragile location, and a wrong move can leave your computer unusable.
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https://www.xda-developers.com/how-disable-microsoft-copilot/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:03Z
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'Rust' crew voiced concerns over Hannah Gutierrez's behavior on set
Some crew members say they had concerns over the armorer's use of drugs and alcohol on set, according to legal documents.
January 31, 2024
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Dec 04, 2020Trump challenges the vote and takes legal action
Nov 05, 20202020’s DNC and RNC are different than any before
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https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/video/rust-crew-voiced-concerns-hannah-gutierrezs-behavior-set-106843099
| 2024-01-31T23:10:05Z
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5:36gma3EducationJanuary 31, 2024College program aims to get men of color interested in medical careersIn New York, the Albert Einstein College of Medicine sponsors a program to get young men of color interested in becoming EMTs. Dr. Darien Sutton visits the program to learn more. Up Next in newsBaristas' College Bargain: Starbucks to Pay for EducationJune 17, 2014Sandra Day O'Connor, 1st woman on Supreme Court, dies at 93December 1, 20231 year after Club Q tragedy, loved ones share treasured memories of lives lostNovember 19, 2023
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https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/gma3/video/college-program-aims-men-color-interested-medical-careers-106834144
| 2024-01-31T23:10:05Z
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WATERBURYWaterbury police recently filed the following charges:EFRAIN CALLEJAS-CANTOR, 26, of 133 Farmcrest Drive, fourth-degree sexual assault with victim under age 16, risk of injury to child, illegal sexual contact with…
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https://www.rep-am.com/local/records/police/2024/01/31/waterbury-police-blotter-97/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:05Z
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Scientists have found that spiderwebs can be used to capture environmental DNA, which reflects the animal population of an area. The technique may help track the biodiversity of an ecosystem.
Copyright 2024 NPR
Scientists have found that spiderwebs can be used to capture environmental DNA, which reflects the animal population of an area. The technique may help track the biodiversity of an ecosystem.
Copyright 2024 NPR
|
https://www.wusf.org/2024-01-31/spiderwebs-could-offer-a-snapshot-of-an-ecosystem-study-shows
| 2024-01-31T23:10:05Z
|
Dear readers/followers,
In this article, I'll update you on one of my greatest investments since November - TUI (OTCPK:TUIFF). It's obviously a little odd to call this risky business one of my best investments. However, the fact is that since my purchasing of more shares at lows, even if this was not a large position, that has seen a RoR of over 50%.
Still, I don't think I have the right to take a massive victory lap given the volatility and pathway for the company to return to actual dividends and growth. But it was, nonetheless, on the basis of total returns, a very good time to buy TUI - and I highlighted it as such.
TUI has experienced a longer downturn than expected, but I do not recommend selling at this point, given the upside that we see for the company eventually. Certainly, there are safer and better investment options available than TUI. But I am a value-oriented investor - and it's hard to argue that TUI does not, as of today, provide appealing overall value, or that it did when I wrote about it in November.
From an operational perspective and point of view, the company has done quite well in the past few quarters - and here we'll update the overall thesis for the 2024E period.
You can find the latest of my TUI articles here, prior to this one.
TUI - Some things to like, but some tricky parts remain
Since my last article, we have full-year 2023E results. These results were also the reason why the company is up as much as it is, or at least in part.
Why is this the case?
Because of outperforming EBIT supported by great sales
FY23 delivered TUI a record revenue above €20.5B. Not exactly a "poor" indicator despite the valuation, on a top-line basis. Winter bookings kept their positive momentum despite higher pricing levels. Booking levels were up 11%, ASP was up 5%, and 2024E seems to be yet another solid period, with early summer bookings also up 13% YoY.
That's top-line. What happens once we move down?
We can expect the underlying EBIT to, according to the company, at least increase by a quarter or 25% in the new year. That's the official company guidance, and not for the top line but the bottom line. In the mid-term, the company's EBIT is expected to grow by at least 7-10.
Take a look at the segment-specific performances, which confirm the increases and reversals or, in some cases, stability of the segments here.
There is plenty of accurate, negative things that can be said about TUI's recent historical performance - but there aren't many overly negative things that can be said about the most recent few quarters here. (Source: TUI IR)
The company has been improving operations for some time now, and the recent quarter only further confirms the operational improvements both for its markets and airlines segment and for other segments as well.
The company's goal here is obvious - further improve by leveraging the integrated and full-service model that TUI offers its customers, trying to unlock lifetime value and further use integration to drive occupancy. Clearly, this is working because most people that purchase tickets and resorts, also book experiences using TUI. Most travelers that use TUI to travel also book TUI hotels, and other services using TUI.
More important than annual traveling and income trends are the company's strategic initiatives to take the business back to the right "place". TUI has rolled out its new global booking platform, and the product platforms for Acco, and Tui flights, Tours, and Cars are rolled out. Digitalization and growth have been provided as well with growth in in-app sales.
For the holiday experiences segment - because this was for Markets & Airlines - we have upside from the asset-right strategy, with new JV's and TUI Blue, as well as good upside from Cruises which has seen a good introduction into the UK market, as the Marella Voyager. (Source: TUI IR)
Balance sheet and fundamentals?
Things are moving along as expected.
Aside from these significant operational improvements, which cannot by anyone be called "small", we have a net leverage down to 1.2x, which again, is better than most companies out there in the same state. The company both gross and net leverage is now down to well below the 2019 levels. Rating upgrades are also in the bag here, with a B/B2 with a clear and likely path to an upgrade to BB soon enough. I would say, conservatively, that recovery to something resembling investment grade is about 3 years off at this time, provided the company continues on the current path.
With impressive result improvements and the significant reduction in net debt, I would say the only factor that could see this company decline still is something on the macro or the climate portion. It's also important to state that TUI may not seek IG, as it was, prior to 2020, a BB-rated business, and that is also where the company seeks to return to.
But it was a very positive sign to see as part of its 4Q23 message, a return to defining the company's overall dividend strategy. That's a large part of why I invested here in the first place, and part of why I remain convinced of the viability of TUI as an, albeit risky, growth investment with dividend potential. (Source: TUI IR)
A few considerations of what TUI is likely to do in the next few years in terms of structure. There are questions regarding the current listing structure, if this is still advantageous for the company. The current listing structure involves both German and UK listings, with plenty of spread-out liquidity across Europe. The last few years have seen a considerable migration of capital to the EUR/German traded share, with 75% and above held and traded in Germany.
The question that's being raised is if it might be better to concentrate and include the TUI share in the MDAX - and the company is now considering an upgrade to Prime Standard in Frankfurt with an MDAX inclusion, and the potential to delist the LSE share from London. I would therefore be careful investing in the TUI share in London.
Advantages to this approach include, aside from centralization of liquidity, also simplification of the structure, better for the EU Airline ownership, enhance the equity profile, and creation efficiencies - obviously holding two listings takes money, and the last few years after Brexit has also seen London lose some of its statuses as a financial center in Europe, with migration trending towards central Europe. (Source: TUI IR)
This is only the latest part of this trend.
Let's look at valuation and see what we have here.
Valuation for TUI - No longer at the bottom, but the upside definitely exists here.
When it comes to TUI, I do not believe this is a company which will fold or one that will go bankrupt. Far from it. I believe that current trends holding, TUI will be on the way up.
Obviously, other analysts now share my view of the situation, given what we're seeing today both in terms of valuation and in terms of results.
To be clear here, I am now expecting the company to continue to outperform, which means that earnings are going to continue to grow. I also believe the market underestimates this company's ability to do just that.
As of my latest RoR, I'm more or less up to a green position with FX and what dividends were paid. And I believe that this is only the beginning. Future upside is going to be a combination of the confirmed EPS growth we saw in 2023, and are likely to continue to see for the next 3 years. FactSet expects the company to manage something like 20% for the next few years on every, every year.
And if this turns out to be even close to the truth, then this company is currently vastly undervalued even if it's cyclical.
I know some of you wondered if I was perhaps too positive when I kept investing in a company that seemed to deliver only lower and lower valuations. But what I do is keep my eye on the underlying numbers, while ignoring the short-term market movements.
And for over a year at this point, the trend you see in earnings above has been quite clear to me.
Even in the unlikely scenario that this company manages only a 2-year P/E average, meaning it's trading at the multiple it did with nearly zero earnings, and only accounting for the growth we see in the next few years, that's still 15.5% per year or 47% in 3 years. And this is the bearish or bear sort of scenario.
On a 20-year average, because TUI is an old business, this company has typically managed at least 15-17x. An upside to this sort of valuation range would imply something along the lines of a 55% to 65% annualized RoR, which puts the total RoR despite already being up 50%, at over 220% to 240% in total until 2026.
These sorts of investments never represent larger portions of my portfolio due to the risk/reward. There's still risk in TUI, that's for certain - but for every quarter that we've seen, the risk has grown less and less as the upside materialized more and more.
I will venture a guess here and say that very, very few analysts taking this company seriously still consider it an overarching risk for TUI to see bankruptcy. With the latest increases in credit, with the increase in earnings, with all the positives, I no longer see an elevated risk for this business. Riskier, yes - but bankruptcy or even severe risk, no.
This has become a bit of a turnaround play, even if it's one without any sort of dividend at this time - and I don't expect one for next year either. TUI was a risky prospect - but it's not as risky as you might think, especially now. The recovery seems to me to be clear - even clearer in fact than early in 2023 - and the current KPIs are confirming this, with 1% net margin, 2% operating margin, and 2.75% FCF margin - that's a recovery from negative numbers, and that keeps climbing here as well.
Current S&P Global estimates are an increase from my last article. The company has now a decent number of "BUY" recommendations as well. The current price target is from a low of €6.8 to a high of €16.00 with an average of €10.30. That's an upside of 58%, conservatively, with 6 out of 8 analysts following it at a "BUY".
I view my upside as more confirmed than in a long time and update my thesis for TUI in the following fashion.
Thesis
- TUI AG is one of the most appealing travel companies in all of Europe. Unlike many of its peers, it has survived - although the fact that it has survived is one of the best things that can currently be said for TUI.
- I believe the combination of the current near-bottom-level valuation, despite an uptick of over 40%, combined with a relatively well-established trend of normalization only has one logical eventual outcome - an upside.
- However, the risk inherent to such an investment makes it incompatible with my current conservative portfolio.
- I cannot rate TUI anything but a "BUY" here. The company's cash flows are "too good" long-term, and the company's turnaround seems to be working. I'm still at speculative, and I'm not switching my PT, but it's getting safer here.
- My PT is €14 - but keep in mind that this is still a speculative play. I now have a position in the company, and accept the risk - albeit a small position.
Remember, I'm all about:
- Buying undervalued - even if that undervaluation is slight and not mind-numbingly massive - companies at a discount, allowing them to normalize over time and harvesting capital gains and dividends in the meantime.
- If the company goes well beyond normalization and goes into overvaluation, I harvest gains and rotate my position into other undervalued stocks, repeating #1.
- If the company doesn't go into overvaluation but hovers within a fair value, or goes back down to undervaluation, I buy more as time allows.
- I reinvest proceeds from dividends, savings from work, or other cash inflows as specified in #1.
Here are my criteria and how the company fulfills them (italicized).
- This company is overall qualitative.
- This company is fundamentally safe/conservative & well-run.
- This company pays a well-covered dividend.
- This company is currently cheap.
- This company has a realistic upside based on future valuation and forecasts.
This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
The company discussed in this article is only one potential investment in the sector. Members of iREIT on Alpha get access to investment ideas with upsides that I view as significantly higher/better than this one. Consider subscribing and learning more here.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666468-tui-up-50-percent-since-lows-in-november?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:06Z
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There's little debate about Patrick Mahomes' abilities as a football player.
But his body, apparently, is a different story.
After the Kansas City Chiefs' win in the AFC Championship Game, cameras captured a shirtless Mahomes giving a speech in the locker room to his teammates. While many might expect the two-time MVP to have a flawless figure, people on social media were surprised to see him without the toned muscles we're accustomed to seeing on athletes.
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Here's the full video:
Mahomes caught wind of the discussions online and responded accordingly, making light of the hilarious situation.
Super Bowl 2024
Here’s the latest news on the 49ers vs. Chiefs 2024 showdown. Get our coverage on how to watch, game day predictions, all the commercials, the halftime show, and more.
To be fair, he is right. Mahomes, a father of two, has an excuse for his self-proclaimed "dad bod." But that didn't stop people from clowning him in the replies.
Dad bod or not, Mahomes and the Chiefs are now just one win away from winning a second consecutive Super Bowl. A game against the San Francisco 49ers in Las Vegas next week is all that stands in his way.
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https://www.nbcsportsphiladelphia.com/super-bowl-2024/patrick-mahomes-shirtless-photo-dad-bod-comparisons/562159/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:06Z
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BOSS heralds a new era of empowerment with its Spring Summer 2024 campaign #BeYourOwnBOSS. The luxury brand invites on a journey of self-discovery and determination, encapsulating the essence of being the master of your destiny, adorned in unparalleled style.
This season, BOSS redefines the narrative of personal empowerment, enlisting a constellation of globally acclaimed stars to embody its message. The campaign, a kaleidoscope of confidence and forward-looking vision, BOSS welcomes back its cherished ambassadors – South Korean cinematic icon Lee Minho and Italian tennis virtuoso Matteo Berrettini. Adding a multifaceted charm to the campaign, are British talent Suki Waterhouse, the face of BOSS Watches, Jewelry, and Eyewear, as well as the magnetic allure of Brazilian supermodel Gisele Bündchen and British modeling sensation Adwoa Aboah.
Each ambassador, captured in a labyrinthine setting transitioning from shadow to light, epitomizes the transformative journey of life choices, echoing the campaign’s core message: the power to be your own BOSS lies within. This visual metaphor not only resonates with the audience but also invites them to embark on their own path of self-realization and style.
The Spring Summer 2024 collection, first glimpsed at the brand’s Miami fashion show, continues to inspire with its sophisticated, muted color palette and contemporary reinterpretations of classic pieces. Designed for the dynamic 24/7 lifestyle, the collection offers a versatile wardrobe for all occasions. Signature BOSS suiting undergoes a modern transformation with strong silhouettes, while a delicate interplay of soft shades, light textures, and contrasts between fluidity and structure, opacity and translucency, offers a refreshing outlook tailored for the warmer months ahead.
A highlight of the collection is the introduction of the new Double B monogram, a symbol of bold individuality and statement-making style. This emblem, featured across apparel and accessories, marks a new chapter in BOSS’s design evolution. The launch is accompanied by a groundbreaking digital campaign and a global showcase of the monogram through hyper-realistic CGI technology, under the rallying cry “Double B, Every Me.” This initiative invites nearly 100 brand ambassadors, celebrities, athletes, and influencers to express their unique identities while adorned in the new collection, showcasing the multifaceted ways to embody the essence of being your own BOSS.
In a display of innovative brilliance, BOSS sets a new benchmark in outdoor advertising with the projection of a 10m-high hologram of Lee Minho and Gisele Bündchen in London’s Potters Fields Park. This pioneering venture not only captures the imagination but also reinforces BOSS’s commitment to innovation and technological exploration in its brand communications.
As Nadia Kokni, SVP of Global Marketing and Brand Communications at HUGO BOSS, eloquently puts it, the incorporation of cutting-edge technology like the hologram not only achieves impactful consumer engagement but also offers a new, unforgettable experience that strengthens the brand’s connection with its audience.
Available from January 31, 2024, the Spring Summer 2024 collection invites you to explore its offerings at BOSS stores, boss.com, and through select wholesale partners, supported by an extensive 360° marketing campaign.
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https://www.malemodelscene.net/ad-campaigns/lee-minho-boss/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:05Z
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Republican and Dem lawmakers clash over intentions behind bills
By Charles Young, The Exponent Telegram
CHARLESTON, W.Va. (WV News) — A pair of bills modifying the state’s election laws passed the House of Delegates on Tuesday following a contentious debate.
Republicans, who control the chamber, said the bills are intended to secure the integrity of elections, but Democrats argued they will discourage voter participation and limit the number of candidates on the ballot.
House Bill 4017, which would make changes related to early voting and voter registration procedures, and House Bill 4350, which would prohibit filling a vacant spot on a ballot after the end of the candidate filing period, both passed with majority support.
HB 4017 contains a provision that would charge with a misdemeanor anyone who “intentionally coerces or offers payment” in exchange for another person registering to vote, said House Judiciary Committee Chair Tom Fast, R-Fayette.
The bill would make it a felony to vote via absentee ballot and then also vote in person, Fast said.
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https://wvpress.org/breaking-news/delegates-pass-two-election-measures/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:06Z
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READING, PA. — Unique Snacks, a 103-year-old, sixth-generation family-owned and operated snack company, continued to grow its brand and expand the availability of its snacks in 2023.
The business grew its brick-and-mortar distribution sales by 18% year-over-year, generated 20% year-over-year growth in Amazon sales and launched an entirely new snack category – Puffzels – a gluten-free, non-fried, Non-GMO Project verified puffed snack.
In related news, Norm Cross was promoted to vice president, brand sales and marketing. In his new role, Cross will lead the continued growth of grocery chain, direct store delivery distribution and Unique Snacks’ expansion with convenience store chains, club store accounts, drugstores and e-commerce offerings.
Jacob Merrill was promoted to director of e-commerce at Unique Snacks to manage the brand’s continued online growth. Merrill will manage all aspects of online sales, marketing and fulfillment for the web store and expand the business’s Amazon marketplace.
“We had a remarkable year, and our continued growth is due to the support of our loyal fans and the efforts of all of our dedicated employees,” said Justin Spannuth, chief operating officer of Unique Snacks. “We’re looking forward to an exciting 2024 and introducing innovations to meet our customer’s interests for more flavor profiles, new high-quality snacks and health-conscious snack options.”
Unique Snacks launched its newest innovation, Puffzels, in 2023, which are selling in more than 25 major retail chains including ShopRite, Giant Eagle, Safeway Mid-Atlantic, Tops and Sprouts, representing more than 1,871 stores across the country.
The company expanded its reach in the drugstore business, adding accounts with Walgreens and CVS to its existing business with Rite Aid and other drugstores.
Unique Snacks also made major inroads in the convenience store space working with Stewart’s Shops and QuickChek to make the company’s pretzels and Puffzels available as grab-and-go or take-home snacking options.
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https://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/60787-unique-expands-leadership-team
| 2024-01-31T23:10:06Z
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Updated January 31, 2024 at 5:33 PM ET
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but signaled that rates could fall in the coming months if inflation continues to cool.
Policy makers have kept their benchmark interest rate between 5.25% and 5.5% — the highest in over two decades — since July.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell told reporters Wednesday that interest rates are unlikely to go any higher, and that he and his colleagues are beginning to contemplate cutting rates.
"If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year," Powell said.
He cautioned, however, that the economy remains unpredictable and said the central bank would proceed cautiously.
"The economic outlook is uncertain and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks," Powell said.
The Fed has been pleasantly surprised by the rapid drop in inflation in recent months. Core prices in December — which exclude food and energy prices — were up just 2.9% from a year ago, according to the Fed's preferred inflation yardstick. That's a smaller increase than the 3.2% core inflation rate that Fed officials had projected in December.
If that positive trend continues, the Fed may be able to start cutting interest rates as early as this spring. First, though, Powell said he and his colleagues will need to see additional evidence that inflation is easing.
And he sounded doubtful about a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in March as many investors in Wall Street had hoped for.
"Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don't think it's likely the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting," Powell said. "But that's to be seen."
The comments disappointed investors, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling 317 points.
Investors are still hopeful about a rate cut by the following Fed meeting in May, with markets putting the likelihood of that at better than 90%.
Good omens in the economy
Both the economy and the job market have performed better than expected over the last year, despite the highest interest rates since 2001. The nation's gross domestic product grew 3.1% in 2023, while employers added 2.7 million jobs
Unemployment has been under 4%for nearly two years. And average wages in December were up 4.1% from a year ago.
While that strong economy is welcome news for businesses and workers, it also raises the risk of reigniting inflation. As a result, Fed policymakers say they'll be cautious not to cut interest rates prematurely.
"We have history on this," Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic told the Rotary Club of Atlanta this month. "In the '70s, the Fed started removing accommodation too soon. Inflation spiked back up. Then we had to tighten. Inflation came down. Then we removed it again. Inflation went back up. And by the time we were done with that, all Americans could think about was inflation."
The Fed is determined not to repeat that '70s show. At the same time, waiting too long to cut interest rates risks slowing the economy more than necessary to bring inflation under control.
A report from the Labor Department Wednesday showed employers' cost for labor rose more slowly than expected in the final months of last year. Labor costs increased just 0.9% in the fourth quarter. That's a smaller increase than the previous quarter, suggesting labor costs are putting less upward pressure on prices.
Fed officials promised to keep an eye on upcoming economic data and adjust accordingly.
Copyright 2024 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.
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https://www.wypr.org/2024-01-31/the-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-but-signals-rate-cuts-may-be-coming
| 2024-01-31T23:10:06Z
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The Saskatoon Fire Department, police and EMS are on the scene of a partial collapse of a building in the Evergreen neighbourhood.
According to the fire department, around 1:40 p.m., they received a call to send first responders to a construction site in the 100 block of Horner Crescent where a floor collapsed.
When crews arrived, they were told that all the construction workers were accounted for, but had members stuck in the upper storeys of the building.
“Initial information was that concrete slabs were being installed for flooring when it collapsed 5 stories,” Saskatoon Fire said in a release.
The department said a firefighter paramedic was tied off and rescued a person from the roof of the building just after 2:30 p.m.
Police initially said three people had been hurt, but the severity of their injuries wasn’t released.
Traffic restrictions are expected to be in place for an unknown length of time as emergency crews respond.
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https://globalnews.ca/news/10264452/saskatoon-emergency-services-partial-building-collapse/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:08Z
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Key Takeaways
- Microsoft Edge for Android is adding a feature that allows users to download extensions onto their mobile devices.
- The new feature was spotted by Leopeva64, who found a toggle within the browser's flags to enable the installation of Chrome-based extensions.
- Microsoft Edge is based on Chromium, so this move may encourage Google to add extensions to Chrome for Android as well.
Google Chrome for Android works great, but its users have been asking for extensions on it for a long time. Now, it seems that Microsoft is ready to step up and do the job instead. A recent preview build for Microsoft Edge for Android (which was recently renamed to Microsoft Edge: AI Browser) includes a feature that lets you download extensions onto your mobile device.
Microsoft Edge for Android is getting extensions
This new feature was spotted by Leopeva64 on X. Leopeva64 is an expert at sniffing out any changes to Microsoft Edge for Android on the Canary branch, and their latest find is a toggle within the browser's flags. When enabled, you can download Chrome-based extensions onto your browser as if you were using the desktop version, which Leopeva64 proves through some screenshots within their X post.
At the moment, the feature is only on the Canary version of Microsoft Edge for Android. This version acts as Microsoft's test bed, where it releases brand new features for users to try and find bugs in. It may be a little while until this handy feature makes its way onto the main branch, but if you don't want to wait, you can grab the Microsoft Edge Canary app and try it early.
Microsoft Edge is based on Chromium, which is the underlying framework for Google Chrome. As such, it'll be interesting to see if Microsoft adding extensions to Edge for Android will encourage Google to do the same with Chrome. Until then, if you grab a fantastic new Android phone and feel like changing things up, maybe give Microsoft Edge a try and use your extensions on the go.
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https://www.xda-developers.com/microsoft-edge-extension-support-android/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:09Z
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Megan Thee Stallion-Nicki Minaj feud prompts heightened security at Texas cemetery
A Texas cemetery has taken action to beef up its security efforts after a public feud between rappers Megan Thee Stallion and Nicki Minaj led to an influx of social media attention.
The cemetery’s address circulated on social media earlier this week, with some users linking it to the final resting place of Holly Thomas, Megan Thee Stallion’s mother. In a statement, the cemetery — The Times will not disclose its name — said that it had alerted local police officers and “increased [its] security personnel.”
“We will continue to monitor the situation, as we take safety and security very seriously,” the statement continued.
Richard Kanka, the father of murder victim Megan Kanka, reportedly is ‘fuming’ over Megan Thee Stallion’s new song ‘Hiss’ because of its mention of Megan’s Law.
A representative for a local police department confirmed to The Times that more patrol officers have been ordered to perform “extra security checks” around the cemetery since Sunday. No acts of vandalism at the gravesite have been reported as of Wednesday afternoon.
The March 2019 death of Megan Thee Stallion’s mother, who died after battling brain cancer, and her final resting place surfaced amid tension between the “Hiss” rapper, who was raised in Houston, and Minaj. Last week, Megan and Minaj (who collaborated on the 2019 song “Hot Girl Summer”) both dropped tracks seemingly taking digs at each other.
After Megan Thee Stallion (real name Megan Pete) dropped “Hiss” on Friday, fans speculated that the Grammy winner, 28, was taking aim at Minaj and her husband with lyrics referencing Megan’s Law.
The “Hiss” lyrics in question: “These h— don’t be mad at Megan, these h— mad at Megan’s Law.”
Nicki Minaj’s husband, Kenneth Petty, was ordered to serve up to 120 days under house arrest, according to legal documents, after threatening rapper Offset on social media.
The federal law mandates public disclosure about convicted and registered sex offenders, and Minaj’s husband Kenneth Petty was convicted in 1995 in New York of the attempted rape of a 16-year-old girl.
He served a four-year prison sentence for that conviction and is required to register as a sex offender wherever he lives. But in 2022, Petty failed to register in California as a sex offender and was sentenced to house arrest.
“Hiss” didn’t mention Minaj by name, but the “Pink Friday 2” rapper seemed to take the single personally, dropping a diss track of her own.
Minaj’s “Big Foot” nods to more than just Megan Thee Stallion’s romantic relationships and her 2020 shooting by Tory Lanez. In several lines, Minaj accuses her alleged rival of “lying on your dead mama.” The rapper, 41, also reportedly mentioned Thomas’ death on the “social radio” platform Stationhead, TMZ reported.
Megan Thee Stallion addressed her ‘haters’ during her Outside Lands set, her first performance since Tory Lanez was sentenced to prison for shooting her.
As of Wednesday afternoon, it seems Thomas was not the only late parent to get caught up in the rappers’ feud. The final resting place of Robert Maraj (Minaj’s father), who died in February 2021, also began circulating on social media.
Neither representatives for Megan Thee Stallion nor Minaj responded to The Times’ request for comment.
With rap fans now allegedly using gravesites to fuel a feud, a Houston-area police representative told The Times that prospective vandals should be prepared to face the consequences.
“There’s laws against defacing and damaging gravesites and anyone that is caught in any act ... will obviously be met with the consequences of being arrested,” a police source said. “We highly encourage everyone to just stay away from the cemetery and not get involved in something like this.”
More to Read
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https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/music/story/2024-01-31/megan-thee-stallion-nicki-minaj-feud-security-cemetery-police-confirm
| 2024-01-31T23:10:11Z
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A North Atlantic Right Whale calf was found this week on the shore of the island of Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts.
According to NOAA Fisheries:
“On January 28, 2024, we were notified of a dead female North Atlantic right whale near Joseph Sylvia State Beach on Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. NOAA Fisheries and @ifawglobal will work closely with the Massachusetts Environmental Police and local responders on next steps.
“A necropsy will be performed when weather conditions become more favorable. Preliminary observations indicate the presence of rope entangled near the whale’s tail (around the peduncle). Due to the animal’s position, the whale cannot be identified at this time, but it is estimated to be a juvenile due to its size.”
Some of the rope wrapped around the whale’s tail was collected and turned over to NOAA’s Office of Law Enforcement for examination by gear experts.
Gib Brogan, campaign director at Oceana in the United States, said:
“It’s devastating to hear about another loss to North Atlantic right whales. This death is even more troubling when it is a female calf that could have gone on to have many calves of her own for decades to come. The recovery of North Atlantic right whales cannot take any more setbacks. While we don’t know the cause of this calf’s death, entanglement with fishing gear and collisions with boats remain the top threats to the future of North Atlantic right whales. Since 2017, at least 55 North Atlantic right whales have been killed or seriously injured by boat strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. This latest example should serve as a wakeup call that the status quo is not working. The survival of North Atlantic right whales requires strong leadership in the U.S. and Canadian governments to ensure fishing and boat traffic stop killing the remaining whales.”
While Kim Elmslie, campaign director at Oceana in Canada, added:
“January has started and ended with tragedy for critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. A female right whale calf found dead, right on the heels of news of another calf struck by a small boat at the beginning of the month, underscores the urgent need for continued, strong and mandatory protection to safeguard these whales from entanglements in fishing gear and ship strikes. With a population of just 356 whales left, each loss significantly impacts the already fragile population.”
The news comes in the wake of a new study that was published last week on the plight of North Atlantic right whales and what can be done to reduce the risk of boat strikes.
According to Oceana’s Brogan:
“This peer-reviewed study from noted scientists at the New England Aquarium, Duke University and the federal government is further proof that the United States government needs to do far more to protect North Atlantic right whales from collisions with boats. The study underscores an obvious and infuriating truth: critically endangered North Atlantic right whales are dying because our government is failing to do its job. The authors provide clear recommendations for improvements to the U.S. boat traffic rules and it is well past time for President Biden and Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo to follow the science and move forward with finalizing the government’s own proposed updated vessel speed rule.”
The scientists in the study all agree that:
- the current spatial and temporal scales at which speed restrictions are implemented along the U.S. East Coast are inadequate because lethal vessel strikes of large whales remain an important management issue
- results showed that a 10 kt [11.5mph/18.5kph], rather than 14 kt [16mph/26kph], speed restriction was necessary for reducing risk and that speed restrictions applied in the Critical Whale Habitat were almost as effective as speed restrictions applied throughout the U.S. East Coast EEZ.
- the Critical Whale Habitat represents broad areas and long time periods that were primarily defined to ensure protection of right whales.
- The results also suggest that a 10 kt speed restriction in the Critical Whale Habitat provides protections for humpback, fin, and sei whales.
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https://www.deeperblue.com/dead-north-atlantic-right-whale-calf-found-off-massachusetts/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:11Z
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ANALYSIS: Is Israel winning the war against Hamas?
Officials have warned the fighting could continue for the rest of the year.
January 31, 2024
Examined
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https://abcnews.go.com/International/video/analysis-israel-winning-war-hamas-106842182
| 2024-01-31T23:10:11Z
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4:40gma3January 31, 2024Deals and Steals: Self-care must-havesTory Johnson drops by with deals on self-care products from brands we’ve partnered with that will have you living your best life. Up Next in newsProducts that provide clever solutionsJanuary 27, 2024Sandra Day O'Connor, 1st woman on Supreme Court, dies at 93December 1, 20231 year after Club Q tragedy, loved ones share treasured memories of lives lostNovember 19, 2023
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https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/gma3/video/deals-steals-care-haves-106834148
| 2024-01-31T23:10:11Z
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The history behind Russian lands recognized by Zelensky’s decree as ‘historically inhabited by Ukrainians’
Unity Day, observed on Jan. 22 in Ukraine as a state holiday, typically commemorates the 1919 unification of eastern and western Ukraine. But this year, the date garnered attention for a decree signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky relating to modern-day Russian territories that were historically populated by Ukrainians.
The decree titled "On the Territories of the Russian Federation Historically Inhabited by Ukrainians" outlines a directive for the Ukrainian government to collaborate with experts and develop a plan aimed at researching, publicizing, and safeguarding the cultural identities of Ukrainians who have lived in the borders of modern-day Russia’s Krasnodar Krai, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk, Rostov regions that border Ukraine.
“It’s important to know that ethnic Ukrainians are represented in almost every corner of the world, even in the territories of the aggressor state,” Vladyslav Havrylov, historian and researcher with the Where Are Our People Project, told the Kyiv Independent.
“There is a need for systematic awareness efforts striving to establish communication and urge these individuals to actively resist Russian aggression and advocate for Ukraine on international platforms, if only out of respect for their historical roots.”
The decree doesn't make any territorial claims to these regions, unlike Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s frequent ahistorical assertions about Ukraine, such as that it was an “invention” of the Bolsheviks and therefore not truly sovereign.
While Zelensky’s decree is seen by supporters as a politically savvy move to foster a better global understanding of Russia's long-standing crimes against Ukrainians and other groups who have lived under Russian rule, some historians caution that it needs to be less ambiguous in order to have any relevance.
It has also left some individuals originally from those Russian regions who moved to Ukraine wondering if they’ll see their dreams realized and someday obtain Ukrainian citizenship.
‘What do you mean, Russian? We’re Cossacks.’
Ukraine's territory according to the 1991 borders covers 603,700 square kilometers (375,000 square miles), but in 1918, during Ukraine's national liberation struggle, the Ukrainian State under Hetman Pavlo Skoropadsky covered an area larger than 800,000 square kilometers (497,000 square miles).
This included cities like Belgorod, part of modern-day Russia, which now serve as launch points for Russian missiles and drones targeting Ukrainian cities and killing civilians.
Deportations — including to Russia’s Far East — mass repressions orchestrated by the Soviet authorities, famine, and a number of other repressive measures in the 1920s and 30s would go on to deal significant blows to the Ukrainian communities who lived in those regions.
Ukrainians didn’t make up the entire local population of these regions. In certain instances, they were resettled after Russian authorities displaced indigenous groups who lived there. What happened to them reflects a larger state policy of forced assimilation backed by Russia.
Zelensky’s presidential decree mentions the historical regions of Kuban, Starodubshchyna, and northern and eastern Slobozhanshchyna, a passing acknowledgement of the historical complexity tied to this decree.
Slobozhanshchyna, also known as Sloboda Ukraine, encompasses parts of modern-day Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk oblasts but also parts of Russia’s Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts. Russia’s Krasnodar Krai includes most of the historical Kuban region, while Starodubshchyna is primarily situated in Bryansk Oblast.
The work of historians over the years has already revealed that some of the Ukrainians who lived in those regions harbored concerns about being considered part of Russia.
In his 2008 book “Ethnic Boundaries and the State Border of Ukraine,” for example, historian Volodymyr Serhiychuk cites an open letter dating back to 1925 from residents of the settlement of Zaoleshenka in Kursk Oblast, located less than 10 kilometers from the modern-day Ukrainian border.
The residents of Zaoleshenka convey their wish to Soviet authorities to formally be part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, arguing that more than 5,000 residents of the settlement identified as "100% ethnic Ukrainians," and their economic ties were closely linked to the Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Sumy.
“We dare to state that a categorical rejection of our petition and general silence on the issue in question, or simply imposing one’s own considerations from above in the sense of establishing borders without the consent of the interested population of the given area, will have a harmful and distrustful impact on the prestige and trust of the population of the central Soviet authorities, violating the right to self-determination,” the letter ends.
Another letter from 1924 cited by Serhiychuk in his work reveals Ukrainians' discontent about Shakhty and Taganrog, cities in modern-day Rostov Oblast, becoming part of Russia. The letter highlighted that most people in these areas were Ukrainians and argued that it would make more sense for these lands to belong to the Ukrainian SSR.
One of the most famous examples of Ukrainians who lived in the territory of modern-day Russia is connected to the historical Kuban region, modern-day Krasnodar Krai, where different groups of Ukrainian Cossacks were forcibly resettled in the 18th century.
“The Kuban Cossacks communicated in the Ukrainian language and identified themselves as Ukrainians. According to the census conducted in Tsarist Russia in 1897, the Kuban region was home to over 900,000 Ukrainians, constituting 47.4% of the population. They were the largest ethnic group in the region,” Havrylov explained.
Ukrainian documentary filmmaker Valentyn Sperkach recorded interviews with elderly locals from a village in Krasnodar Krai descended from those Cossacks for his 1992 film “Kuban Cossacks: And Already Two Hundred Years…”
The documentary subjects recount family memories of forced deportations in the 1920s and 30s to destinations as far off as Kazakhstan and the most able-bodied looking people being targeted by authorities and shot dead. When a village was left half empty, people from other parts of Russia — such as Leningrad Oblast, which is over 2,000 kilometers away — were resettled there.
The children of those who were not deported or killed were told in schools that there was no such nationality as “Cossack” and that they were Russian.
The hints of the Ukrainian language in the documentary subject’s voices – such as the use of a soft “g” instead of the hard Russian pronunciation – coupled with poignant family testimonies, serve as examples of how Russian aggression blurred the lines of cultural identity in Krasnodar Krai.
When two women are asked if they identify as Russians or Ukrainians, one responds: “I don’t know. Papa was Russian, we’re Russian.”
“What do you mean, Russian?” the other woman counters. “We’re Cossacks.”
“Cossacks, yes. They tormented us for that.”
Asked why it states in his passport that he’s Russian and not Ukrainian, one man replies: “I had a friend, his surname was Zhovtobriukh but it was spelled Zhovtobriukhov. (This was) to hide the fact that our surnames were Ukrainian. Because they strangled us, God have mercy! Because they made all of Krasnodar Krai Russian.”
Another man tells the camera that they “used to be” Ukrainians. However, he doesn’t go as far as to call himself Russian. He is questioned about locals’ cultural identity, to which he responds, "We don't even know who we are now."
When pressed for a more definitive answer, he chuckles and proclaims, "Werewolves!"
‘I’m a Ukrainian without Ukrainian citizenship’
One of the initial main concerns raised by the decree is the lack of clarity in some of the terms used, Kyrylo Halushko, a historian and ethno-sociologist who has researched interethnic relations in the post-Soviet space, told the Kyiv Independent.
“In the context of international law — and this decree concerns another state, thus having an international context — such matters are crucial,” he added.
There is no dispute that Russia has long been trying to undermine Ukrainian national identity. However, certain historical ethics and expert assessments are needed going forward to establish clearer definitions of terms like “historically inhabited lands,” according to Halushko.
Being precise and careful with such wording also helps to make sure that it cannot be applied against Ukrainian territory at any point in the future, he added, citing Hungary’s claims over Transcarpathia and the ethnic Hungarians who live there as an example.
The decree does not explicitly acknowledge the previous history of the groups who lived in some of these regions before Ukrainians were settled there.
It also does not mention the significant number of Ukrainians living in far-off regions of Russia. For example, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug–Yugra in Siberia is home to over 40,000 Ukrainians according to Russia’s census in 2021.
“How ‘historical’ are we there? How many generations are needed? Perhaps these territories are already more ‘ethnically Ukrainian’ than some mentioned in the decree, which have long been completely assimilated by Russian and Soviet imperial practices,” Halushko added.
While Halushko criticized certain aspects of the decree, he acknowledged that the authors and timeframe for its implementation remain unknown, implying that these initial oversights could be rectified in the future.
The Kyiv Independent reached out to Zelensky’s office for comment but hasn’t gotten a response as of publication time.
Another factor that is not addressed in the presidential decree is the individuals born in the Russian regions bordering Ukraine who have chosen to embrace their Ukrainian roots and dream of someday obtaining Ukrainian citizenship.
As long as Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine continues that outcome remains uncertain.
“I’m a Ukrainian without Ukrainian citizenship,” singer Yulia Yurina declared in a post on her social media shortly after Zelensky’s decree was published. “It so happened that I was born in the aggressor country.”
Yurina, whose music blends Ukrainian folk traditions with contemporary music styles, is originally from the town of Anapa in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. But thanks to the efforts of local residents who preserved Ukrainian traditions across generations, she was shaped by Ukrainian culture from an early age.
“There were Ukrainian-speaking families, Ukrainian schools, and Ukrainian newspapers. My friend's family lived on Shevchenko Street, and they spoke Ukrainian at home,” Yurina told the Kyiv Independent.
After Russia illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula and invaded Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014 there was more pressure put on Ukrainian cultural initiatives within Russian territory. According to Yurina, her own collection of Ukrainian-language materials was even destroyed.
One of Yurina’s acquaintances who works as a teacher was also given a directive “from above,” to remove Ukrainian songs from the school repertoire and sing “Russian folk songs,” instead.
“It was very strange for the Kuban region where Ukrainian culture prevailed,” Yurina said.
The singer has been living officially in Ukraine since 2012. She initially obtained a temporary residence permit through her university studies in Kyiv. In 2015, she married a Ukrainian citizen.
Despite obtaining permanent residency in 2018, scoring high on the Ukrainian language exam, and actively volunteering for Ukraine since the onset of the full-scale invasion, her citizenship application has remained unresolved for the past year.
After she made a passionate post on social media about her predicament, “hundreds of people” wrote Yurina sharing similar stories, she said. They expressed how they’d also been living in Ukraine for years but were still holding out hope to become Ukrainian citizens.
“I understand why it's difficult for people with a passport from the aggressor country, especially during wartime when the country is worried about security, to become citizens,” she said.
“But it turns out to be a pressing issue affecting the fate of many people. Hopefully a solution will be found that satisfies both sides, is safe, less complicated, and helps determine the destinies of many people whose home is Ukraine.”
Note from the author:
Hi, this is Kate Tsurkan, sharing an important culture-related story from Ukraine. Due to Russia’s ongoing genocide, most stories about Ukrainian culture will, unfortunately, be related to war for years to come. But Ukrainian culture is finding ways to persevere and it's important to share these stories.
If you liked reading this article, please consider continuing to support our reporting to see more like this.
We’ve been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
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https://news.yahoo.com/history-behind-russian-lands-recognized-201200172.html
| 2024-01-31T23:10:11Z
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LITCHFIELD – Proposals calling for the funding of an architectural and engineering study of the Town Hall Annex in Bantam and the installation of electric vehicle charging stations at four…
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https://www.rep-am.com/localnews/2024/01/31/for-study-on-70-year-old-town-hall-annex/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:11Z
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Donald Trump has yet to officially clinch the Republican presidential nomination, but he's already begun to tease about a running mate. The NPR Politics Podcast dives into who might be on his list.
Copyright 2024 NPR
Donald Trump has yet to officially clinch the Republican presidential nomination, but he's already begun to tease about a running mate. The NPR Politics Podcast dives into who might be on his list.
Copyright 2024 NPR
|
https://www.wusf.org/2024-01-31/trump-says-vp-pick-wont-impact-the-race-so-whats-he-looking-for-in-a-running-mate
| 2024-01-31T23:10:11Z
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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) reported Q4 earnings yesterday (January 30, 2024), along with an update on the earnings call about its outlook for AI accelerators this year. AMD's update provides material new information for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors.
I have published updated quarterly projections for AMD’s AI accelerator revenues in the article “AMD: The 2024 AI Outlook Is Very Positive.” Readers should take a look, but my main conclusion is that by Q4, AMD will probably reach about 8-10% market share by revenue in data center GPUs. In this article, I discuss what AMD’s strong outlook may mean for Nvidia.
Demand For AI Chips Remains Seemingly Endless
We are now a year into the post ChatGPT explosion of demand for AI chips, and AMD’s update provides yet another credible data point signaling that there is still plenty of demand left unfulfilled. This is despite three quarters of Nvidia trying to move heaven and earth to ramp production (with further increases to come), and despite Nvidia continuing to be sold out for multiple quarters. Yet, AMD has lined up significant cloud customers, dozens of ongoing customer engagements, and now has a backlog of $3.5 in firm commitments (up from $2 billion the previous quarter). And this is despite the fact that although AMD’s accelerators are a bit cheaper, they come with additional costs and hassles due to AMD’s weaker software offerings and ecosystem.
In my opinion, this goes to show just how much demand is still left for AI chips. As far as worries about AI chip demand fading are concerned, AMD’s update suggests that even if it eventually happens, it is still more than a few quarters away. AMD also spoke about “multi-generational conversations” with customers, which adds a further data point suggesting the persistence of AI chip demand growth over the coming years.
On the overall demand front, then, AMD’s update is a positive signal for Nvidia investors. The market can still absorb a lot more AI chips.
Market Share Losses Likely Are Coming, But Overall Growth Should Outstrip It
The flip side of AMD’s update is, of course, that Nvidia could lose market share in data center GPUs. AMD’s firm commitments with customers already imply annualized run-rate revenue of $5-6 billion in Q4, and I now expect that further bookings can very realistically take AMD to an $8 billion/year run-rate for data center GPU sales in Q4, with further upside. This should amount to a roughly 8-10% share of the data center GPU market in Q4. This is a fairly significant loss of market share for Nvidia, although it won’t properly materialize until H2, when AMD expects to accelerate its MI300 ramp.
Of course, AMD is also continuing to forecast 70% annual growth in the market for data center AI accelerators through 2027, so even with a 10% market share loss, Nvidia should continue to post massive top line growth in 2024 provided it can successfully keep ramping supply. With CoWoS (chip-on-wafer-on-substrate) capacity at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) slated to double this year, Nvidia should probably be in good shape to grow rapidly this year.
Significant Margin Compression Probably Won’t Materialize Until H2 2025 (Or Later)
Although AMD is selling its accelerators for a lower price than Nvidia, I don’t expect Nvidia to engage in price competition for the time being. Some of the price difference should already be balanced out by lower deployment costs and a better software ecosystem for Nvidia chips, and it doesn’t make much financial sense for Nvidia to lower prices on 90% of chips in the market to prevent a few percentage points of market share loss. It is also possible that the need to compete on price will be further reduced once Nvidia launches its upgraded H200 accelerators, and its next-generation B100 accelerators, this year.
Even if Nvidia is eventually motivated to compete on price, I would not expect that to begin until the end of this year once AMD has gained a bigger foothold. And then, given how long things take to go from a new order to delivery and revenue recognition, I don’t think we should expect to see significant margin compression for Nvidia until the second half of next year.
Nvidia Is A Bit Riskier Now
AMD's strong outlook through 2024 somewhat worsens the risk profile for Nvidia. There is now some more downside risk that AMD could eventually reach an even higher market share over the next few years - say, 20% to 40%. AMD has proven a fierce competitor in its rivalry with Intel (INTC), and history could conceivably repeat itself.
But even with fierce competition from AMD, Nvidia could potentially still keep growing if overall demand for AI accelerators keeps ballooning.
It is also possible to mitigate this risk by taking a long position in AMD (which also has a strong buy rating from me).
Wait And See Still Makes Sense
I last rated Nvidia stock in November in the article "Nvidia: Smooth Sailing.” Here is what I had said then:
Although concerns about new entrants, margin contraction, and China export restrictions certainly have merit, investors should not lose sight that Nvidia's top and bottom lines will most likely keep growing at a rapid clip for another few quarters. The aforementioned concerns should not have a significant impact on Nvidia's impressive growth trajectory for some time. By the time the impact materializes, Nvidia will be in a stronger financial position and be able to absorb some of the impact due to the rapid growth of the overall AI accelerator market. Hence, I again think that investors can confidently hold Nvidia stock for another couple of quarters and then evaluate how the industry is evolving.
I think that this overall view continues to make sense because Nvidia’s growth is likely to remain strong for multiple quarters. Especially with next-generation Nvidia chips on the horizon while AMD is still ramping its current generation, jumping ship would seem premature. Of course, AMD’s strength out of the gate with the MI300 series is a net negative for Nvidia. But Nvidia still makes one of the most sought after pieces of technology in the world, and it is still likely to remain the leader in AI chips for multiple years. It is important to not lose sight of this broader picture.
Hence, overall, Nvidia remains a strong buy for me.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666470-nvidia-key-implications-from-amds-q4-earnings?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:12Z
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By Esteban Fernandez, Times West Virginian
CHARLESTON, W.Va. — While Fairmont State students introduced themselves at the Capitol and took the grand tour Monday, University President Mike Davis was on a mission.
As he went to a private meeting with Gov. Jim Justice, there was one thing on his mind.
“We’ve got to get Fairmont State in the conversation,” Davis said. “The initiatives that have happened, that have higher education solutions attached and it’s almost always WVU and Marshall. But as the third largest institution in the state, and what we think is the top regional institution in the state, we’ve got to be in all of those conversations. That’s something we’re going to be saying all day. We don’t need to be the only partner, but we need to be in the room. We need to be one of those partners because we’re ready to connect.”
The university sent a delegation to Charleston as part of its Annual Fairmont State Day at the Capitol, a day when the school makes itself known to lawmakers. It was also Davis’ first time meeting legislative leaders and the governor.
Davis said the primary issue facing Fairmont State’s relationship with the legislature has been a lack of strategy to get its goals met. Instead, the school has conducted a piecemeal effort to promote itself. Moving forward, Davis hopes more school administrators and deans make regular trips to the Capitol, but first he will spend the year laying the necessary groundwork to make that possible in the future. To that end, Davis plans to visit two or three more times throughout the rest of the year.
Fairmont State has a significant impact on Fairmont’s community and economy, Del. Mike DeVault, R-74, said. Although Fairmont State isn’t in his district the benefits the school brings extend into his area.
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https://wvpress.org/breaking-news/fairmont-state-cadre-meets-lawmakers-states-its-case-day-at-the-capitol/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:12Z
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A Brazilian model’s journey from an unexpected discovery at a mall to international runways. Leonardo Rocha talks about the challenges and milestones of his career so far, marked by walks for brands like Dolce & Gabbana, revealing his behind-the-scenes life and the influence of Brazilian culture in shaping a presence in the fashion industry. Through experiences across the US, Spain, and Brazil, his story offers insights into the importance of authenticity, resilience, and cultural identity.
MMSCENE EXCLUSIVES
My modelling journey started strolling at the mall with friends. I was 15 years old, and initially, I was like, “Me? A model? Are you sure?” But once I stepped into the agency and did my first shoot, the camera and I clicked, and from that moment on, there was no turning back. It was destiny, or maybe just a well-timed strut through the mall!
Being in front of cameras has always felt like home, but what really fueled my passion for modeling was the dream of working with big brands and circling the globe.How has your Brazilian heritage influenced your work and perspective in the fashion industry?
Embracing my Brazilian heritage is like a secret style weapon. Our culture’s warmth and resilience, as echoed in our national anthem’s “Um filho teu não foge à luta” (A son of yours doesn’t flee from the fight), inspire me daily. It’s this blend of passion and determination that shapes my perspective in the fashion world. So, every runway walk is a celebration of where I come from and a nod to the fighting spirit instilled by my Brazilian roots.
Walking for iconic brands like Dolce & Gabbana is a significant achievement. Can you describe your experience working with such high-profile fashion houses?
Working with esteemed fashion houses like Dolce & Gabbana has been a profound journey into the heart of haute couture. Their commitment to professionalism and the meticulous structure behind the scenes are impeccable. Stepping onto the runway during Milan Fashion Week, especially for my debut with Dolce & Gabbana, was genuinely a dream come true. It’s not just fashion, it’s an orchestrated masterpiece.
What challenges have you faced in the modeling industry, and how have you overcome them?
Oh, the modelling rollercoaster, where every twist and turn is a lesson in resilience! From conquering language barriers to shooting a summer campaign in minus degrees. It has been a wild ride. Communication hurdles? let’s just say fashion is my universal language. As for the ice cold shoot, a fierce pose warms up any set. The key is turning challenges into victories while having fun with the journey.
How do you prepare for major fashion shows, both mentally and physically?
Well, physically, it’s working out five times a week and maintaining a clean diet. Emotionally, I find strength in my faith, attending church is like a recharge for my spirit. It’s the perfect blend of physical discipline and spiritual grounding, ensuring I step onto the runway not just as a model but as a whole, confident being.
What aspects of modeling do you find most rewarding, and why?
The most rewarding part of modelling for me it’s the privilege of working with incredible creatives worldwide. Every collaboration is a chance to learn, grow, and carry a piece of their artistry in my heart wherever I go. It’s like having a global mentorship program! Plus, the opportunity to travel the world, doing what I love, is the ultimate dream. It’s not just about the destinations; it’s about the journey, and each shoot is a new chapter in this adventure.
In your opinion, how is the modeling scene different in the US, Spain, and Brazil?
Each country brings its unique flair to fashion. In the US, diversity takes center stage, creating a fashion melting pot. Spain’s fashion scene is a magnetic charm with Mediterranean elegance. In Brazil, modeling is a cultural masterpiece, blending Amazonian energy, coastal charm, and vibrant colors reflecting diverse culture.
Can you share a memorable moment or a turning point in your career that has had a significant impact on you?
Walking for Dolce & Gabbana at the Alta Sartoria show in Sicily, inspired by the gods of ancient Greece and Rome, was a career milestone. Dancing with fashion royalty against Scicily’s stunning backdrop, with nods to the Roman Empire and Greco-Roman mythology, was a powerful reminder of the dreams I’ve turned into reality. Each step mattered.
What advice would you give to aspiring models, especially those from Brazil, looking to make it in the international fashion scene?
For aspiring models, especially my fellow Brazilians, aiming for the international stage: Brace yourself for the journey, it won’t be a cakewalk, life rarely is. Stay true to yourself, as authenticity is your superpower. In the dynamic fashion world, hold onto your values like precious gems. and remember faith and resilience will be your secret weapons. Keep shining, stay strong and always be punctual.
What are your future goals and aspirations within the modeling industry? Do you have any specific projects or collaborations you’re excited about?
I’m beyond thrilled for the journey ahead! After eight amazing years on the international stage, I’ve recently signed with MegaModel in São Paulo, marking a return to my roots. The prospect of working in my home country for the next season feels like a beautiful homecoming. It’s not just a new chapter, it’s a celebration of growth and a chance to contribute to the vibrant Brazilian fashion scene. The runway awaits, and I’m ready to bring a fresh perspective to the place where it all began.
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https://www.malemodelscene.net/editorial/mmscene-exclusive-interview-with-leonardo-rocha/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:12Z
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Donald Trump has yet to officially clinch the Republican presidential nomination, but he's already begun to tease about a running mate. The NPR Politics Podcast dives into who might be on his list.
Copyright 2024 NPR
Donald Trump has yet to officially clinch the Republican presidential nomination, but he's already begun to tease about a running mate. The NPR Politics Podcast dives into who might be on his list.
Copyright 2024 NPR
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https://www.wypr.org/2024-01-31/trump-says-vp-pick-wont-impact-the-race-so-whats-he-looking-for-in-a-running-mate
| 2024-01-31T23:10:13Z
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Jennifer Crumbley’s affair with witness can be brought up in court, judge says
Jennifer Crumbley’s alleged extramarital affair with a witness at her involuntary manslaughter trial can be brought up in court after a heated exchange between attorneys.
January 31, 2024
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https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/jennifer-crumbleys-affair-witness-brought-court-judge-106842009
| 2024-01-31T23:10:17Z
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4:22
- gma3
- January 31, 2024
What you need to know about Neuralink’s implantable brain chip
Elon Musk announced that his company Neuralink implanted a brain chip in a human. Neurologist Dr. Leah Croll discusses what the preliminary clinical study could mean for the future of health care.
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https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/gma3/video/neuralinks-implantable-brain-chip-106833780
| 2024-01-31T23:10:17Z
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LITCHFIELD -Winter blues were kicked to the curb Saturday as Litchfield Community Center staff and members of the board of directors’ events committee ventured outside to host activities for a…
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https://www.rep-am.com/localnews/2024/01/31/happenings-in-the-hills-fire-and-ice-event-kicks-the-winter-blues-in-litchfield/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:17Z
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Russia claims victory in Ukraine's complaint to UN court under two conventions
Russia’s Foreign Ministry has commented on the 31 January ruling of the UN International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Ukraine's complaint regarding Russia’s violation of two conventions on the financing of terrorism and on racial discrimination.
Source: European Pravda
Details: In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry claims that the ICJ "did not follow Kyiv's lead and refused to recognise Russia as an 'aggressor state' on principle, and denied that the DPR and LPR [the Donetsk and Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’] are terrorist organisations".
At the same time, it was "surprised by the Court's conclusion" that Russia had violated its obligations under the Terrorist Financing Convention in two cases where, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, there were "no signs of either 'terrorism' or its 'financing'".
The Russian Foreign Ministry spoke about the ICJ’s conclusion regarding the Convention on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination in a similar vein, claiming that "there is no discrimination against Crimean Tatars or Ukrainians in Crimea".
The Russian Foreign Ministry called the court's finding that teaching in Ukrainian in schools was restricted "a rather controversial judgement" because, it said, "the choice of Crimeans to study in Russian is purely voluntary".
It also stressed that the ICJ rejected all of Ukraine's claims for compensation from Russia.
Read more in this article: UN court issues first ruling against the Kremlin. What to expect and what not to
Background:
Ukraine's complaint against Russia concerned the violation of two international conventions – on the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism and on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination.
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https://news.yahoo.com/russia-claims-victory-ukraines-complaint-182751154.html
| 2024-01-31T23:10:17Z
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When a man tells you that he got rich through hard work, ask him: 'Whose?”― Don Marquis.
Today, we put Angi Inc. (NASDAQ:ANGI) in the spotlight. The company is the clear market leader in its niche but has struggled to find a way to profitability. It also has destroyed plenty of shareholder value since it came public to much fanfare more than a decade ago. New management is making progress on reducing losses. Are the shares investable yet? An analysis follows below.
Company Overview:
Angi Inc. is headquartered in Denver, CO. The company operates a platform that connects consumers with service professionals for local services via a nationwide online directory of service professionals in various service categories such as plumbing, handymen, and electricians. Angi Inc. is a subsidiary of IAC/InterActiveCorp (IAC). The stock trades around $2.50 a share and sports an approximate market capitalization of $1.25 billion.
Angi's network consists of more than 200,000 skilled home professionals nationwide. The company has cycled through many iterations and names since originally being founded in 1995. The current version of the company was formed in 2017, when IAC's HomeAdvisor merged with Angie's List. The company dominates the Digital Service category, but alas that has not led to consistent profitability.
Here is how the platform works.
Third Quarter Results:
The company posted its Q3 numbers on November 7th. Angi Inc. delivered a GAAP loss of one cent a share, two pennies a share above expectations. Revenues fell just over 25% on a year-over-year basis to $371.8 million, just over $6 million light of the consensus. Management guided about five to ten percent of the sales drop is due to softness in the overall housing market. The rest is due to leadership's decision to improve the quality of its sales leads and thereby customer satisfaction.
Management guided to an operating loss of between $25 million to $60 million for FY2023. They expect adjusted EBITDA to be positive and in a range of $100 million to $110 million for the fiscal year. Of note, Adjusted EBITDA guidance has improved from where it started in FY2023.
Analyst Commentary And Balance Sheet:
The analyst community is mixed in their views on the company. Since Q3 results were posted, four analyst firms including Goldman Sachs have reissued Buy/Outperform ratings on Angi Inc. stock. Three analyst firms including UBS have maintained Hold/Neutral ratings on the shares.
Just over 11% of the outstanding float in the shares is currently held short. The company's Chief Technology Officer sold just under $30,000 worth of shares earlier this year. In 2023, insiders sold just less than $200,000 worth of equity collectively. Angi Inc. ended the third quarter with just over $365 million in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet against approximately $495 million in long-term debt. That is according to the 10-Q the company filed for the third quarter. It has some 14 million shares left to purchase under an existing stock buyback authorization as well.
Verdict:
The company lost 26 cents a share in FY2022 on $1.89 billion. The current analyst firm consensus has the company seeing losses cut to nine cents a share as sales fall to $1.45 billion in FY2023. They project losses of just four cents a share in FY2024 on revenues of $1.4 billion.
I like the concept of the Angi Inc. business model. Unfortunately, the company has gone through a slew of iterations in its long history. It also had significant management turnover (new CEO and CFO) in 2022. ANGI is making progress on the cost front, but at the expense of falling sales. Revenue growth should approach flat in FY2024, and losses are getting towards breakeven. However, given the company's long and disappointing history from a shareholder perspective, I would like to see Angi firmly in the black before I would consider the shares for an investment.
A fresh set of data points will be available when Angi Inc. reports Q4 2023 results in the first half of February as well.
He who moves not forward, goes backward.”― Johann Wolfgang von Goethe.
Author's note: I present and update my best small-cap Busted IPO stock ideas only to subscribers of my exclusive marketplace, The Busted IPO Forum. To join the Busted IPO Forum community, just click on the logo below.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666473-angi-making-progress-reducing-losses?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:18Z
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New reports show a big academic recovery after schools reopened. But not for all students. Stanford professor Sean Reardon tells NPR's Mary Louise Kelly how the pandemic worsened education inequality.
Copyright 2024 NPR
New reports show a big academic recovery after schools reopened. But not for all students. Stanford professor Sean Reardon tells NPR's Mary Louise Kelly how the pandemic worsened education inequality.
Copyright 2024 NPR
|
https://www.wusf.org/2024-01-31/u-s-students-are-starting-to-catch-up-in-school-unless-theyre-from-a-poor-area
| 2024-01-31T23:10:18Z
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CHICAGO — Net earnings more than doubled at Mondelez International, Inc. in the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2023. Net revenues increased by over 14% despite a fourth-quarter decline in North America.
“I’m pleased to share that we delivered our best year ever in 2023 with robust top-line growth, continued share improvements, record profit dollar growth and strong total shareholder return,” said Dirk Van de Put, chief executive officer, in a Jan. 30 earnings call. “Our double-digit top line performance was driven by strong pricing execution and positive volume/mix growth. We also delivered continued share improvements as consumers across the globe remain very engaged with our iconic snacking brands. We set another record for gross profit dollar growth achieving $2.2 billion through ongoing cost discipline and sound pricing to offset cost inflation as well as volume leverage.”
Net earnings of $4.96 billion, equal to $3.64 per share on the common stock, compared with the previous year’s net income of $2.72 billion, or $1.97 per share. Adjusted operating income increased by $939 million at constant currency while adjusted operating income margin increased 10 basis points to 15.9%, driven primarily by higher net pricing; lower manufacturing costs driven by productivity, selling, general and administrative (SG and A) expenses leverage; and favorable product mix.
Net revenue increased 14.4% to $36.02 billion from $31.50 billion behind organic net revenue growth of 14.7%, incremental sales from the 2022 acquisitions of Clif Bar and Ricolino, and incremental sales from a short-term distributor agreement. Underlying volume/mix was up 1.3%. Oreo, Milka and Cadbury, the company’s three biggest brands, had over $10 billion in net revenues.
“We continue accelerating our focus on our core categories for chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks because these categories offer attractive growth and profitability,” Van de Put said. “We remain on track to deliver 90% of our revenue through these core categories.”
Chicago-based Mondelez held or gained share in 65% of its revenue base, said Luca Zaramella, chief financial officer.
“Given the amount of pricing we took in the last couple of years, we see this as a strong accomplishment, and our brand investments, both from a quantity and quality standpoint, clearly played a role,” he said.
During the call Van de Put was asked about the state of North American consumers.
“So what they’re doing is still reflecting sort of the tension they’re under, but they are expecting the economy to improve and that better times are ahead for them,” he said. “So what are they doing? We see a little bit more of an elasticity effect, and the way they react to that is they’re waiting more. We see particularly light buyers waiting for promotion, so not buying with the same frequency but buying more when it’s on promotion.
“We see them downsizing, going to smaller formats and buying more of those. We see shift in channels. They go to club channels, e-commerce channels. That’s the one we see winning. And then we have a number of sort of mechanical effects that we’re seeing, particularly the SNAP reduction in the US, and so we see less disposable income for a certain group of consumers.”
In North America, net revenue increased over 14% to $11.08 billion in the fiscal year, but in the fourth quarter it fell 1.1% to $2.78 billion, which compared to growth of almost 20% in the previous year’s fourth quarter. Volume/mix in North America was flat for the year and down by over 5% in the fourth quarter.
“Full-year growth was driven by higher pricing, broad-based strength across brands, and channels and solid volume/mix,” Zaramella said. “In Q4, volume declined as a result of a softening US biscuit category, tight inventory management in advance of Q1 pricing and declines in Give & Go increased. Give & Go was impacted by our decision to release some of the holiday’s gingerbread kits, being low profit. We continue to be very happy with Give & Go overall.”
Net revenue in emerging markets increased 15% to $14.01 billion in the fiscal year. Conflict in the Middle East has pressured volume/mix performance for Western consumer brands, including Mondelez brands, Zaramella said.
Van de Put added, “We expect that to continue in Q1 and Q2, but gradually, over the year, that will fade away.”
In the fourth quarter companywide, Mondelez had net income of $950 million, or 70¢ per share on the common stock, which was up 63% from $583 million, or 43¢ per share, in the same time of the previous year. Net revenues increased by over 7% to $9.31 billion from $8.70 billion with organic net revenue growth of nearly 10%. Volume/mix was down 0.4%.
In the current fiscal year Mondelez expects revenue to increase at the upper end of the 3% to 5% range. Zaramella said Mondelez expects inflation in high single-digit percentages in the fiscal year.
“This inflation is driven by significant increases in both cocoa and sugar as well as another uptick in labor costs,” he said.
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https://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/60788-mondelez-earnings-surge-in-fiscal-2023
| 2024-01-31T23:10:17Z
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West Virginia Press Association Staff Report
CHARLESTON, W.Va. – The House Committee on Political Subdivisions, on Tuesday, debated four bills designed to limit municipal authority with regard to penalizing both businesses and water customers, as well as exempting subcontractors from certain municipal taxes.
Proposed by Del. Mike DeVault, R-Marion, HB 4249 seeks to free subcontractors from the requirement to pay municipal business and occupation (B & O) taxes.
As explained by Committee Counsel Robert Akers, “Essentially general contractors have to pay it on their gross receipts, and the subcontractors that they hire would turn around and have to pay it again. As it trickles through the businesses, everybody pays.”
“This bill would stop that process, and only the general contractor at the top of the pyramid would pay the B & O tax to the local governing authority,” Akers added.
In response to a question from Del. Larry Rowe, D-Kanawha, regarding the total cost of the tax change, Akers advised that, “It is impossible to determine the decrease in revenue to each county. Every city is different.”
An amendment proposed by Del. Don Forsht, R-Berkeley, which would move the bill’s effective date to after July 1, 2026, was adopted by the committee. HB 4249, as amended, will now be referred to the House Finance Committee for further consideration.
HB 4782, sponsored by Del. Chuck Horst, R-Berkeley, and once again explained by Akers, “Was prepared to prevent municipalities from targeting protected businesses with planning and zoning ordinances that are more restrictive than those that are placed on other businesses within their jurisdiction.”
Akers noted that three aspects of a business which municipalities would be prevented from restricting include hours for selling and servicing firearms, hours for shooting ranges, and lawful sale of firearms and other weapons.
“Essentially a city will not be able to use a planning or zoning ordinance to put undue restrictions upon these types of businesses, unless they’re putting it on all of the businesses within their jurisdiction,” Akers added. “
At the conclusion of Akers explanation, Del. Evan Hansen, D-Monongalia, asked, “Is this bill saying you can not limit the operating hours of gun shops?”
“With a planning ordinance, you can not limit the operating hours of a gun shop unless you’re limiting the operating hours of other businesses, like ice cream parlors,” Akers replied. “If you’re going to regulate one business, you have to regulate them all.”
Hansen made a motion for further discussion to be postponed for a period of one week while amendments could be prepared. However, that motion was defeated. HB 4782 will now be referred to the House Judiciary Committee for their review.
HB 4864, sponsored by Del. John Hardy, R-Berkeley, seeks to prevent municipalities from disconnecting a customer’s water service due to non-payment of stormwater management (sewer) fees.
Once more explained by Akers, HB 4864, “Allows municipalities to impose a lien on property, but prohibits them from actually shutting off services for non-payment of a stormwater fee.”
“So if you don’t pay your stormwater fee, they can’t shut your water off,” Akers added. “But they can put a lien on your property.”
Questions regarding rental properties were raised, specifically in the case of non-payment by a tenant. In such instances, according to Akers, the lien would still be placed on the property.
“The tenant wouldn’t have anything to put a lien against,” Akers said. “Maybe their personal property if they owned a car.”
Akers then referenced subsection “K” of the bill to confirm his response, adding, “Twice it refers to ‘lot, land, or building,’ so the landowner, it looks like that’s where the lien would go.”
“The lease may pass responsibility off,” Akers noted. “But under this bill, the property is where the lien is going to attach.”
After nearly 30 minutes of discussion, the committee adopted a motion to revists HB 4864 during their next scheduled meeting.
In other business, the committee advanced HB 4704. Sponsored by Del. Daniel Linville, R-Cabell, the bill calls for the creation of “Infrastructure-ready jurisdictions” within individual municipalities. A similar piece of legislation passed the House of Delegates during the 2023 Legislative Session, but stalled in the Senate. With the committee’s adoption, HB 4704 will now be referred to the House Committee on Technology and Infrastructure.
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https://wvpress.org/breaking-news/house-committee-on-political-subdivisions-debates-b-o-taxes-and-stormwater-fees/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:18Z
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New reports show a big academic recovery after schools reopened. But not for all students. Stanford professor Sean Reardon tells NPR's Mary Louise Kelly how the pandemic worsened education inequality.
Copyright 2024 NPR
New reports show a big academic recovery after schools reopened. But not for all students. Stanford professor Sean Reardon tells NPR's Mary Louise Kelly how the pandemic worsened education inequality.
Copyright 2024 NPR
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https://www.wypr.org/2024-01-31/u-s-students-are-starting-to-catch-up-in-school-unless-theyre-from-a-poor-area
| 2024-01-31T23:10:19Z
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Opening statements in Casey Goodson Jr. murder trial
Jason Meade, the former sheriff's deputy charged in the shooting death of a black man in Ohio, faces two counts of murder and one count of reckless homicide.
January 31, 2024
Examined
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May 25, 2022What's next for abortion rights in America?
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May 02, 2022How we can build a clean and renewable future
Apr 19, 2022The fight for Kyiv
Mar 11, 2022Examining extremism in the military
Apr 27, 2021Gun violence: An American epidemic?
May 03, 2023Border crisis: What’s happening at the US-Mexico border?
Jun 18, 2021Remembering George Floyd: A year of protest
May 25, 2021The source of COVID-19: What we know
Apr 07, 2021How did the GameStop stock spike on Wall Street happen?
Feb 12, 2021Why are people hesitant to trust a COVID-19 vaccine?
Dec 10, 2020How climate change and forest management make wildfires harder to contain
Sep 29, 2020Disparity in police response: Black Lives Matter protests and Capitol riot
Feb 23, 20212020 in review: A year unlike any other
Dec 22, 2020Examined: How Putin keeps power
Mar 12, 2021Why don’t the Electoral College and popular vote always match up?
Oct 29, 2020US crosses 250,000 coronavirus deaths
Nov 18, 20202nd Impeachment Trial: What this could mean for Trump
Feb 08, 2021Presidential transition of power: Examined
Dec 01, 2020How Donald Trump spent his last days as president
Jan 18, 2021How Joe Biden's inauguration will be different from previous years
Jan 15, 2021Belarus’ ongoing protests: Examined
Dec 04, 2020Trump challenges the vote and takes legal action
Nov 05, 20202020’s DNC and RNC are different than any before
Aug 17, 2020What is happening with the USPS?
Aug 20, 2020Voting in 2020 during COVID-19
Oct 13, 2020Disinformation in 2020
Oct 30, 2020
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Jun 15, 2022Keeper of the Ashes: The Oklahoma Girl Scout Murders
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Mar 22, 2022
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https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/opening-statements-casey-goodson-jr-murder-trial-106839816
| 2024-01-31T23:10:23Z
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2:48gma3EducationJanuary 31, 2024New mobile tutoring program supports homeless studentsWinnie’s Wagon is an initiative by the Homeless Children’s Education Fund to assist children in vulnerable situations. Up Next in newsBuddies without borders helping Afghan refugeesSeptember 23, 2021Sandra Day O'Connor, 1st woman on Supreme Court, dies at 93December 1, 20231 year after Club Q tragedy, loved ones share treasured memories of lives lostNovember 19, 2023
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https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/gma3/video/new-mobile-tutoring-program-supports-homeless-students-106834038
| 2024-01-31T23:10:23Z
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HARTFORD – The Connecticut hospital industry is looking to shorten wait times for decisions from state hospital regulators amid mounting anxiousness over Yale New Haven Health’s pending bid to purchase…
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https://www.rep-am.com/localnews/2024/01/31/hospital-association-pushing-legislature-to-overhaul-certificate-of-need-process/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:24Z
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There is no reason for Powell to give up strategic ambiguity on rate cuts. - Bob Pisani (On CNBC today).
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady today, as widely expected. In many respects, they also maintained the hawkish rhetoric and guarded stance toward inflation re-emerging. Nonetheless, the nature of economic strength co-occurring with inflation falling far faster than they expected seems to be a manifestation of the fabled "soft-landing scenario." Furthermore, given how fast inflation has fallen, this means that the current restrictive policy stance is likely too tight given how fast inflation has fallen.
Earlier in the day, a call from New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYCB) ignited fears that some building commercial real estate woes could be coming to roost. The odds for a Fed hike rose going into a meeting, but then immediately after the release of the statement, the odds went back down below 50%, and this is mainly because of a change in statement language that appeared to suggest the market had gotten ahead of its skis on the building expectation of cuts in March. The Fed explicitly said they don't have the confidence to cut yet and likely won't by March.
Several Fed officials provided hints about what would come in this meeting. Indeed, suppose you think about the issue from the Fed's perspective. In that case, it makes little sense to send a signal too early and potentially reignite Goods inflation, given the unexpected economic strength and improvement in consumer sentiment.
This Fed meeting was relatively uneventful because there was no Summary of Economic Projections and essentially no divided expectations on the committee's actions regarding the Federal Funds Rate. The big news was the change in the statement that poured water on expectations for March cuts.
Here's some context of where we were before this Fed meeting:
- Economic growth has been significantly higher than the Fed's projections. Recent GDP numbers came in significantly ahead of expectations.
- The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE, has come in below expectations and hit the two-handle. Amazingly, on an annualized basis, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator is running at 1.5%, which can be counted as fuel for those advocating cuts to get ahead of the curve.
- The labor market has remained strong, with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, despite some evidence of potential softening in the private payrolls report.
- A flurry of Fed officials said that while they don't think further rate hikes will be necessary, they are also in no rush to provide cuts for reasons largely aligned with Bob Pisani's quote opening the piece.
- One thing that may give the Fed pause to cut too soon is the strength of wage growth, which was likely partially a culprit for the dramatic outperformance of GDP. However, suppose consumers are feeling flush (which the expectation increase would suggest). In that case, there's a low probability that they could reignite inflation by overspending on goods, leading to a downward trend.
There has recently been some evidence that the wage growth could soften a bit, which would help assuage the Fed's fears that growth and consumer strength can reignite inflation in a way that undermines the execution of the dual mandate.
What Is the Fed Looking For To See Inflation Vanquished?
Increasingly, many voices are raising the increasing risk that holding rates too high will potentially cross-check the economy when it is showing profound gains across income quintiles for the first time in decades. Yet, the Fed is afraid of repeating the risks of the seventies, and many members of the FOMC are not convinced that inflation is vanquished.
I'm expecting it's going to be bumpy and because of that bumpiness, I feel like we've got to be careful. We do not want to go on these up and down or a back and forth pattern. I want us to be absolutely certain that inflation is where we need it to be before we move too dramatically." -Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
As you can see, Raphael Bostic is very well stating the common ingrained policy fear of repeating the mistakes of Arthur Burns in hanging up a Mission Accomplished sign on the inflation fight too early. While this risk is well absorbed and understood by most in the market and has remained crucial to the Hawkish bent in the Fed's messaging strategy, increasingly, some of the economic experts (importantly, some of those who were right about avoiding recession) have been speculating that the Fed's potential for policy error in the other direction may be building.
A global pandemic kicked off this inflation cycle, which bears no resemblance to the cycle in the 1970s. One could plausibly argue it did in the summer of 2022 - risks of embedded inflation and an inflationary spiral. But after 2023, with a massive disinflation to less than a percentage point of the 2% target and inflation expectations firmly anchored, it's on the Fed and anyone else clinging to the Burns Fed to explain themselves.
The reality now - not in the 1970s - should drive policy now. The Fed fears losing its credibility as an inflation fighter by cutting too soon, but it's a two-sided risk. No one wants to be Arthur Burns, and no one should want to be the upside-down Arthur Burns. Cutting too late, too little, and causing an unnecessary recession would also be a hit to the Fed's credibility. -Former Federal Reserve Economist Claudia Sahm
So, the change in the language acknowledged the dovish data and remarkable economic progress, as well. However, it's likely that Hawkish forces on the FOMC, steeped in the lore of monetarism and the mistakes of Arthur Burns, will need to see more favorable data. Simply put, the committee will need to see whether the effects of the pandemic unwinding will come undone and result in a jagged path back down to the target. I think more help from economic normalization will make the final mile of the Fed's inflation path easier than FOMC members think.
All in all, despite an increasingly respectable case, to make forward-looking cuts now, the probability after today's Fed meeting is that cuts will likely occur in June at the earliest unless a macro risk pushes the Fed to re-evaluate its "risk management" stance, as Powell called it, in a different light.
Powell was asked about this in the first question of the presser. He said he's looking for a continuation of good data. He cited that they've seen six months of good data on inflation, and he needs to see whether there's a zig-zag path down to 2% because this will affect how and when to cut. One of the more bullish things that Powell said is that he is not looking for low growth. He does not feel the need to reduce growth to defeat inflation.
Powell says it seems very likely the Fed will achieve the confidence, but there are likely some hawkish holdouts on the committee who correctly note that the inflation battle in the 1970s required several bouts to extinguish. The dramatic policy errors of those times remain prominent in the minds of naturally backward-looking Federal authorities who will want to ensure current inflation is killed dead before cutting rates. Powell said on a 12-month basis, core inflation is still too high. He's not declaring victory yet.
Risks and Where I Could Be Wrong
Despite the mounting evidence of an economic soft landing and the precipitous decline of inflation, there's no shortage of severe economic risks that could ruin the Fed's day and result in an unfortunate policy error. We've discussed earlier in the article that the nature of the policy error risk has become more balanced, and Powell echoed this sentiment in his press conference. But many risks could derail this reality.
- Escalation of geopolitical risks in China, Ukraine, or the Middle East.
- Fed policy error.
- The banking crisis worsens.
- Return of inflation.
- CRE meltdown.
- Write-downs of private assets.
While the risk of keeping policy too tight may rise as the inflation-adjusted interest rate falls, there are still considerable risks that inflation could reignite significantly. One of the greater historical drivers of inflation has been war.
Unfortunately, the worsening situation in the Middle East and the potential for the conflict to expand in a way that significantly interrupts commerce is rising. This dynamic is one thing that is similar to the 1970s bout with inflation and conflicts worsening could rapidly change the Fed's calculus.
There do not appear to be any immediate risks to the soft landing thesis; the Fed clarifying expectations that they will likely not cut in March may have avoided market carnage by helping get the market's expectations more aligned with where the committee is.
Conclusion: The Greatest Economic Interruption in Modern History Is Still Coming Unwound and Helping the Fed
"This is a good economy. Let's be honest." -Chairman Powell in today's press conference
Fed whisperer Nick Timiarous asked aggressively what the Fed had to gain from waiting a few weeks to cut, given the dramatic economic progress on several fronts. Powell mentioned that nearly all committee members could envision cuts soon. Still, later in the press conference, he specifically said he did not think it was likely that the committee would have enough confidence by March to make the first cut. While Powell speaks in economic jargon, some of this is likely the political/policy wrangling necessary to achieve unanimous decisions and maintain the unified public face that an FOMC Chairman generally strives for.
Powell also mentioned an important point. He's not interested in inflation touching 2% and then regressing upward. He wants the inflation average under the dual mandate to be 2%. So, in this light from his perspective, it explains why he probably views himself as having the luxury of time before cutting. Overall, the Fed will want to see another quarter or so of unquestionable progress on inflation. I believe they'll get it, and here's why.
The fundamental attribution error is a pernicious cognitive bias that can often lead us to draw false conclusions by looking at events too much through the human lens. We see a hawkish Fed that has been using hawkish rhetoric and that inflation has come down dramatically. We see this, and we tend to assume that the coming down of inflation has a causal relationship to the actions and dispositions of the Federal Reserve, but I don't think it does.
The Federal Funds rate is the most powerful economic tool for human organizations. Still, it's a water hose in the face of a wildfire compared to the most significant economic interruption in human history caused by the pandemic. There's much evidence that government intervention and pandemic behaviors have made economic recovery more robust than recent precedents. This suggests this cycle will not repeat the 1970s as so many FOMC members appear to fear.
I think the continued normalization of the economy, elevated levels of government spending, and a persistently strong labor market are not enough to fight against the currents of COVID-era economic behavior normalizing. The other thing is this: The Fed is trying to avoid an inflationary spiral, and as you can see, inflation expectations have dropped precipitously, reducing the likelihood of this outcome.
We tend to let recency bias think the past will repeat itself even when the present is very different. I think the strength of the US economy and its relative insulation from many of the risks perplexing other economies across the globe will continue to result in a strong economy. As of now, the Fed did a great deal in its January press conference to align the market's expectations more closely with the dispositions of the FOMC. This is a decidedly bullish occurrence that prevents the market tantrums that can occur from more ambiguous communication strategies.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666475-january-fomc-meeting-review-fed-amental-attribution-error?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:24Z
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By Cameron Maynard, The Logan Banner
MAN, W.Va. — The community of Man as well as the entire state of West Virginia lost an outstanding coach and an even better man as longtime Hillbillies coaching staple and legend William “Tootie” Carter passed away at 82 on Thursday, Jan. 25.
Carter was the head coach of Man High football from 1969-1998 and compiled a record of 200-108-4. He took the ‘Billies to the playoffs in 12 of those 30 seasons and guided them to a 10-12 postseason record as well as three state championship games in 1977 against Poca, 1980 against Ceredo-Kenova, and 1984 against Grafton.
The Hillbillies lost all three state title matchups, but Carter still had a remarkable and legendary coaching career, nonetheless.
Before his tenure as MHS head coach, Carter played football and baseball at Man and graduated in 1960. After that, he got a scholarship to New Mexico Highlands.
“Tootie” got his degree and returned to Man to serve as an assistant coach for Man Junior High for one year and then head coach for the two ensuing seasons.
Then, in 1969, coach Carter took over for Dick Barber as the new head man of the ‘Billies. Carter also coached baseball for several years at MHS.
Following his tenure as the head football coach at Man High, Carter served as the principal there for five years. After that, he assumed duties as the head coach of Man Middle School Pioneers football and stayed in the position until his retirement last year.
While Carter may have excelled as a coach over so many years, he was an even better person.
Ask MHS baseball head coach Mike Crosby, who graduated from Man in 1992 and played baseball for Carter from his sophomore year to his senior year.
When Crosby became the head coach of Hillbillies baseball in the fall of 2016, he said the first thing he wanted to do was name their field after coach Carter. That became a reality as it is now named William “Tootie” Carter Field.
|
https://wvpress.org/breaking-news/remembering-man-high-coaching-legend-william-tootie-carter/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:25Z
|
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zoning
|
https://www.wypr.org/tags/zoning
| 2024-01-31T23:10:25Z
|
How sea otters prevent coastal erosion: Study
The marine mammals are the natural predators to shore crabs, which burrow into marsh banks and destabilize shorelines.
January 31, 2024
Examined
Examined
What’s next for Russia?
Jun 29, 2022What comes next after Texas school shooting?
May 25, 2022What's next for abortion rights in America?
May 03, 2022The new battle for voting rights
May 02, 2022How we can build a clean and renewable future
Apr 19, 2022The fight for Kyiv
Mar 11, 2022Examining extremism in the military
Apr 27, 2021Gun violence: An American epidemic?
May 03, 2023Border crisis: What’s happening at the US-Mexico border?
Jun 18, 2021Remembering George Floyd: A year of protest
May 25, 2021The source of COVID-19: What we know
Apr 07, 2021How did the GameStop stock spike on Wall Street happen?
Feb 12, 2021Why are people hesitant to trust a COVID-19 vaccine?
Dec 10, 2020How climate change and forest management make wildfires harder to contain
Sep 29, 2020Disparity in police response: Black Lives Matter protests and Capitol riot
Feb 23, 20212020 in review: A year unlike any other
Dec 22, 2020Examined: How Putin keeps power
Mar 12, 2021Why don’t the Electoral College and popular vote always match up?
Oct 29, 2020US crosses 250,000 coronavirus deaths
Nov 18, 20202nd Impeachment Trial: What this could mean for Trump
Feb 08, 2021Presidential transition of power: Examined
Dec 01, 2020How Donald Trump spent his last days as president
Jan 18, 2021How Joe Biden's inauguration will be different from previous years
Jan 15, 2021Belarus’ ongoing protests: Examined
Dec 04, 2020Trump challenges the vote and takes legal action
Nov 05, 20202020’s DNC and RNC are different than any before
Aug 17, 2020What is happening with the USPS?
Aug 20, 2020Voting in 2020 during COVID-19
Oct 13, 2020Disinformation in 2020
Oct 30, 2020
ABC News Specials on
Impact X Nightline: On the Brink
Dec 14, 2023Impact X Nightline: Unboxing Shein
Nov 27, 2023The Lady Bird Diaries
Nov 27, 2023Impact X Nightline: It's Britney
Nov 27, 2023Impact X Nightline: Natalee Holloway -- A Killer Confesses
Nov 27, 2023Impact X Nightline: Who Shot Tupac?
Nov 27, 2023Wild Crime
Oct 26, 2022Impact x Nightline
Oct 28, 2022Power Trip: Those Who Seek Power and Those Who Chase Them
Sep 27, 2022The Murders Before the Marathon
Sep 01, 2022The Ivana Trump Story: The First Wife
Jul 25, 2022Aftershock
Jul 18, 2022Mormon No More
Jun 22, 2022Leave No Trace: A Hidden History of the Boy Scouts
Jun 15, 2022Keeper of the Ashes: The Oklahoma Girl Scout Murders
May 20, 2022The Orphans of COVID: America's Hidden Toll
May 13, 2022Superstar: Patrick Swayze
Apr 14, 2022The Kardashians -- An ABC News Special
Apr 05, 202224 Months That Changed the World
Mar 30, 2022Have You Seen This Man?
Mar 22, 2022
|
https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/sea-otters-prevent-coastal-erosion-study-106843017
| 2024-01-31T23:10:29Z
|
2:58gma3January 31, 2024Nikolaj Coster-Waldau drops by to talk new Bloomberg series Actor Nikolaj Coster-Waldau drops by "GMA3" to talk about his new Bloomberg Originals series, “An Optimist’s Guide to the Planet.” Up Next in newsNikolaj Coster-Waldau on optimism toward climate change: 'We have the solutions'January 30, 2024Sandra Day O'Connor, 1st woman on Supreme Court, dies at 93December 1, 20231 year after Club Q tragedy, loved ones share treasured memories of lives lostNovember 19, 2023
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https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/gma3/video/nikolaj-coster-waldau-drops-talk-new-bloomberg-series-106834149
| 2024-01-31T23:10:30Z
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Investors cheered following the release of General Motors Company’s (NYSE:GM) fourth quarter financial results and the discussion of specifics with CEO Mary Barra, GM’s CFO Paul Jacobson and financial analysts. Shares immediately surged nearly 10% in value and have risen higher a day later.
GM forecast 2024 adjusted pre-tax profits of $12 billion to $14 billion, compared to $12.4 billion reported for 2023. GM will hold capital spending roughly flat.
Bull run
The bullish forecast is driven in part by strong Q4 results - GM reported net income for stockholders of $2.1 billion, or $1.59 per share, compared with $2 billion, or $1.39 per share a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter was more or less flat from last year, at $42.98 billion, compared with $43.11 billion.
GM beat analyst expectations and did so against the backdrop of an ugly six-week strike by the United Auto Workers Union, the safety scandal at Cruise and headaches with its BEVs, including faulty automation equipment at a battery cell plant and software glitches necessitating the halt of Chevrolet Blazer EV sales. In other words, GM’s numbers could be even more attractive this year if they weighed down by too much electrification, labor stoppages and the cost of supporting Cruise, the self-driving robotaxi affiliate.
GM’s internal combustion engine (ICE) business is in good shape. "The ICE machine is up and working again … please proceed to the end of the hallway and fill your buckets!" Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally so cleverly wrote in a note, praising GM’s business.
In the U.S., GM’s main market, the automaker sold 2.6 million vehicles last year, which maintained its No.1 position in the market, yet only 76,000 or so were BEVs. Of those, 62,000 were the discontinued Bolt EV and EUV. In other words, GM BEVs on its Ultium platform – like the Cadillac Lyriq – are off to a slow start.
Please, Mr. President
The reasons for the sluggishness are underscored by a letter sent in November signed by 3,900 car dealers to the White House complaining about federal fuel efficiency mandates that would mandate two-thirds BEV sales by 2032.
“There are many excellent battery electric vehicles available for consumers to purchase,” the retail dealers – independent franchisees of the automakers – wrote in their letter to the president. They added that “electric vehicle demand today is not keeping up with the large influx of BEVs arriving at our dealerships prompted by the current regulations,” and “BEVs are stacking up on our lots.”
Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), No. 2 seller of vehicles in the U.S., has been outspoken in its agreement with the essence of what many dealers advocate, promising instead to allow consumer demand dictate the pace at which it sells BEVs. Toyota is emphasizing gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids and other forms of fuel-technology such as hydrogen in a multi-path strategy to reduce carbon emissions.
Bowing to growing evidence that the nation isn’t ready for mainstream adoption of BEVs, Barra announced on Tuesday’s earnings call that the automaker is juggling its product strategy to include plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). She didn’t say how many, which models or when – probably because the automaker now must scramble with outside suppliers, dealers and engineers on the specifics.
“Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035, but, in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environment or environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build this charging infrastructure,” Barra said.
Jagged growth
"We know the EV market is not going to grow linearly," CFO Jacobson told analysts. "We are prepared to flex between ICE and EV production."
PHEV models permit a motorist to drive a certain limited distance on battery power only – typically between 30 and 60 miles – before the vehicle switches over to a gasoline engine. It sidesteps the range anxiety some owners of BEVs experience when they're searching for a charging station or when weather or some other factor dramatically reduces the remaining range of the battery. Starting at $34,000, the Toyota Prius Prime advertises as much as 44 miles of range before a gasoline engine kicks in.
I believe introducing a few PHEV models could be the first step for GM toward introducing some full gas-electric hybrids, which allow an electric motor and gasoline engine to operate in tandem in a fashion that is still highly efficient while permitting some tailpipe emission. Automakers have referred to gas-electric hybrids as a “bridge” technology to emission free driving.
A few new PHEV models will relieve investor pressure on GM management (along with the accelerated share buyback and dividend increase, announced on Nov. 29) and give the automaker more time to further assess how deep and serious is the softening growth of BEVs.
Black ink
Barra said during the earnings call that GM expected to sell up to 400,000 BEV models in 2024 and would begin to achieve “variable” profitability at sales of 200,000 BEVs – which still would mark a massive improvement and growth over the program to date. Accordingly, overall financial losses attributable to BEVs should be lower next year, assuming GM’s internal forecast for unit sales and pricing is sound.
Maintaining the confidence of investors will require GM to fulfill its 2024 forecast, no small task given the costs the company intends to cut. Cruise, for example, lost $2.7 billion last year, not including $500 million of restructuring costs in the fourth quarter. Barra said GM will “refocus and relaunch” Cruise – most likely with much less grand and costly ambitions to launch a commercial robotaxi business anytime soon.
Seeking Alpha’s Quant rating awards GM a strong buy with all major factors – valuation, momentum, growth profitability and revisions – earning strong grades. Yet analysts historically and frequently have pointed to GM’s vast potential, only to be disappointed when management fails to deliver. Will this year be different? One hopes so. Until the results are in, I continue to rate the company a Hold.
|
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666478-gm-posts-strong-ice-financials-and-shifts-toward-more-gas-electric-hybrid-technology?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:30Z
|
New owners Nelson and Isabel Diaz attend Wednesday’s grand opening at Key Food supermarket in Waterbury’s Town Plot neighborhood. They bring decades of experience, having owned a CTown supermarket in East Hartford for the past 20 years. Steve Bigham Republican-American
Yohander Batista of Waterbury is the deli manager at the new Key Food supermarket in Town Plot. Steve Bigham Republican-American
The new Key Food supermarket opens for business Wednesday morning at 286 Fairfield Ave. in Waterbury’s Town Plot neighborhood. Steve Bigham Republican-American
Linda Mongillo of Watertown says she is thrilled to be back shopping in Town Plot, where she grew up, during Wednesday’s grand opening of Key Food supermarket in Waterbury. Steve Bigham Republican-American
Nelson Aluna, general manager of the new Key Food supermarket in Waterbury, brings with him a lifetime of experience in the grocery business, having worked in his family’s East Hartford store since he was a kid. Steve Bigham Republican-American
WATERBURY – The new Key Food supermarket opened for business Wednesday morning at 286 Fairfield Ave., promising a return of that neighborhood-grocery feel in Town Plot.The 11,000-square-foot space previously…
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|
https://www.rep-am.com/localnews/2024/01/31/its-good-to-be-able-to-come-back-to-town-plot-new-key-food-market-brings-old-feel-to-waterbury-neighborhood/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:30Z
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West Virginia Press Association Staff Report
CHARLESTON, W.Va. – Major General Bill Crane, adjutant general of the West Virginia National Guard, addressed members of the Legislative Veterans Caucus on Tuesday, to provide an update as to the goings on within West Virginia’s military ranks. Some 12 members of the Veterans Caucus attended Crane’s address, which was presented in the House Chamber in the capitol building.
“The West Virginia (National) Guard is renowned worldwide,” Crane told caucus members. “Every time we’re deployed, and we go anywhere, I get a lot of fan letters about who we’re sending out to do missions.”
West Virginia’s National Guard consists of the state’s Army and Air National Guard divisions. As adjutant general, Crane is the senior officer in command of both divisions. Crane was made adjutant general in January 2021, after the retirement of former Adjutant General James Hoyer.
“When COVID hit, we finally had the Air and the Army (National Guard) working together more than I’ve ever seen them work together,” Crane began. “I watched them become more of a family than two different organizations.”
“That doesn’t mean I don’t pick on my Air Force brethren,” Crane added with a laugh. “I’m sorry, I’m just going to do that – I can because I’m the two star (general), and I can get away with it. We like to kid each other, but we get out and get the job done.”
“We have a lot of humor,” Crane said. “I make fun of the Air Force, and they make fun of the Army when I’m not around, but when somebody outside of West Virginia wants to give us crap, we’re gonna walk up and kick somebody’s ass. That’s just the way we are – we protect each other.”
Crane explained that his main priorities as adjutant general are “taking care of our members, their families, their employers, and our retirees.”
“We kind of lost connection with our retirees for a little while,” Crane noted. “COVID was a big part of that. So we started a ‘Retiree Day’ to bring them back in, have them meet with the VA and the different entities that show up – a lot of times it’s just them getting to see some of their fellow retirees and saying, ‘Hey man, you’re still alive. That’s awesome.’ Sometimes that’s really what it’s about.”
As part of his focus on retirees, Crane explained, he is also looking toward the future.
“We have to make sure every part of our family feels as though they are valued, and that we are there to take care of them,” Crane said. “When we do that, they will go out and talk good things about the Guard. My son is in the Guard. It is absolutely a family business, and it has been for a long time.”
According to Crane, his next priority is “making sure we have our units as ready as we can.”
“For a long time, we were in counter-terrorism, so we were living on big FOBs (Forward Operating Bases),” Crane explained. “Now I’m telling them (members) that they’ve got to quit that mentality. We’re not going to be able to live on those big FOBs anymore, if you watch what’s going on with the war in Ukraine and what’s going on in Israel. If you live on a big FOB, you’re a big target.”
“We’re going to have to be constantly moving,” Crane added. “I’m getting them out of the ‘big tent’ mentality, and back to the World War II ‘pup tent’ process.”
With regard to inclusivity and diversity within the West Virginia National Guard, Crane said, “I’ve kind of changed it around.”
“I want to make sure that everybody feels like they’re part of the organization,” Crane explained. “I don’t care about race, color, creed – whatever. I want them to join.”
“We’ve done some things with this that, as a male in the organization, I would have never thought about,” Crane noted. “We actually ordered some lactation pods, and we’ve done some different things to make sure that people have the opportunity to feel a part of the organization, and have an opportunity to do the things they need to do to be there and participate.”
In addition to lactation pods for breastfeeding Guard members, Crane noted the recent creation of a “child development center,” which provides child care for serving members.
“If somebody has the willingness to raise their right hand and say ‘I want to support and defend the constitution of the United States and the State of West Virginia,’” Crane added. “Then they’re absolutely part of my team.”
Special thanks to Del. Rick Hillenbrand for allowing access to the January 30 meeting of the Legislative Veterans Caucus.
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https://wvpress.org/breaking-news/w-va-national-guard-commander-addresses-legislative-veterans-caucus/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:31Z
|
Broadway star Hinton Battle, who played the original Scarecrow at the 1978 "The Wiz", has died at 67. He was a three-time Tony Award winner.
Copyright 2024 NPR
Broadway star Hinton Battle, who played the original Scarecrow at the 1978 "The Wiz", has died at 67. He was a three-time Tony Award winner.
Copyright 2024 NPR
|
https://www.wypr.org/wypr-arts/2024-01-31/broadway-legend-hinton-battle-who-originally-played-scarecrow-in-the-wiz-has-died
| 2024-01-31T23:10:31Z
|
IDF raid on hospital caught on video
Israeli special forces, disguised as medical staff, stormed a hospital in the West Bank with weapons, killing a suspected Hamas commander and two others Israeli officials claimed were “terrorists.”
January 30, 2024
Examined
Examined
What’s next for Russia?
Jun 29, 2022What comes next after Texas school shooting?
May 25, 2022What's next for abortion rights in America?
May 03, 2022The new battle for voting rights
May 02, 2022How we can build a clean and renewable future
Apr 19, 2022The fight for Kyiv
Mar 11, 2022Examining extremism in the military
Apr 27, 2021Gun violence: An American epidemic?
May 03, 2023Border crisis: What’s happening at the US-Mexico border?
Jun 18, 2021Remembering George Floyd: A year of protest
May 25, 2021The source of COVID-19: What we know
Apr 07, 2021How did the GameStop stock spike on Wall Street happen?
Feb 12, 2021Why are people hesitant to trust a COVID-19 vaccine?
Dec 10, 2020How climate change and forest management make wildfires harder to contain
Sep 29, 2020Disparity in police response: Black Lives Matter protests and Capitol riot
Feb 23, 20212020 in review: A year unlike any other
Dec 22, 2020Examined: How Putin keeps power
Mar 12, 2021Why don’t the Electoral College and popular vote always match up?
Oct 29, 2020US crosses 250,000 coronavirus deaths
Nov 18, 20202nd Impeachment Trial: What this could mean for Trump
Feb 08, 2021Presidential transition of power: Examined
Dec 01, 2020How Donald Trump spent his last days as president
Jan 18, 2021How Joe Biden's inauguration will be different from previous years
Jan 15, 2021Belarus’ ongoing protests: Examined
Dec 04, 2020Trump challenges the vote and takes legal action
Nov 05, 20202020’s DNC and RNC are different than any before
Aug 17, 2020What is happening with the USPS?
Aug 20, 2020Voting in 2020 during COVID-19
Oct 13, 2020Disinformation in 2020
Oct 30, 2020
ABC News Specials on
Impact X Nightline: On the Brink
Dec 14, 2023Impact X Nightline: Unboxing Shein
Nov 27, 2023The Lady Bird Diaries
Nov 27, 2023Impact X Nightline: It's Britney
Nov 27, 2023Impact X Nightline: Natalee Holloway -- A Killer Confesses
Nov 27, 2023Impact X Nightline: Who Shot Tupac?
Nov 27, 2023Wild Crime
Oct 26, 2022Impact x Nightline
Oct 28, 2022Power Trip: Those Who Seek Power and Those Who Chase Them
Sep 27, 2022The Murders Before the Marathon
Sep 01, 2022The Ivana Trump Story: The First Wife
Jul 25, 2022Aftershock
Jul 18, 2022Mormon No More
Jun 22, 2022Leave No Trace: A Hidden History of the Boy Scouts
Jun 15, 2022Keeper of the Ashes: The Oklahoma Girl Scout Murders
May 20, 2022The Orphans of COVID: America's Hidden Toll
May 13, 2022Superstar: Patrick Swayze
Apr 14, 2022The Kardashians -- An ABC News Special
Apr 05, 202224 Months That Changed the World
Mar 30, 2022Have You Seen This Man?
Mar 22, 2022
|
https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/idf-raid-hospital-caught-video-106812719
| 2024-01-31T23:10:35Z
|
1:50
- gma3
- January 31, 2024
Staying fit could help reduce risk of prostate cancer, study shows
A new study found that men whose cardiovascular fitness improves by 3% or more each year are 35% less likely to be diagnosed with prostate cancer. Dr. Jen Ashton explains.
|
https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/gma3/video/staying-fit-reduce-risk-prostate-cancer-study-shows-106834044
| 2024-01-31T23:10:36Z
|
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ARCT) is gearing up to report results from its phase 1b study using its inhaled messenger RNA [mRNA] treatment known as ARCT-032 for the treatment of patients with Cystic Fibrosis [CF]. There is an important catalyst to watch with respect to this program, which is that there will be the release of interim results from this phase 1b study in the 1st half of 2024.
What makes this biotech unique is that its approach to treating this patient population is entirely different. How so? That's because drugs from powerhouse Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) provide the ability for CFTR proteins to reach the surface of the lungs. However, with respect to Arcturus' drug ARCT-032, the goal is to target the underlying cause of CF regardless of mutation type.
Thus, the goal of implementing messenger RNA is to alter mutated expressions to create functional proteins that should help patients' ability to breathe. With the ability of this company to target the underlying cause of this disorder, there is a chance to potentially beat out a significant competitor in this space. Things are shaping up with this program, because of other advancements with respect to ARCT-032, which I will be going over below.
Besides this advancement, Arcturus and its partner CSL Limited (OTCQX:CSLLY) were able to achieve approval in Japan for ARCT-154 as an initial COVID-19 vaccination and booster for adults 18 years of age and older. Besides the release of interim results from the phase 1b CF study, it is expected that the company will also release interim data from its ongoing phase 2 study using ARCT-810 for the treatment of patients with Ornithine Transcarbamylase [OTC] Deficiency. Such data is expected to be released in the 1st half of 2024.
ARCT-032 Could Change The Way In Which Cystic Fibrosis Is Treated
As I stated above, Arcturus is advancing its inhaled therapeutic candidate known as ARCT-032 for the treatment of patients with Cystic Fibrosis, in the ongoing phase 1b study. Cystic Fibrosis [CF] is a disorder characterized by a defective CFTR gene, which in turn causes the lungs and digestive system to become damaged. The global Cystic Fibrosis market is projected to grow to $12.9 billion by 2030. Current CFTR modulators help mutated CFTR proteins to reach the cell member and thus increase ion channel activity. The thing is it is important for chloride ions to reach the cell surface of the lungs to attract water and thus allow the airways to become clear, which in turn allows the patient to breathe. Current CFTR modulators from powerhouse Vertex Pharmaceuticals such TRIKAFTA [Elexacaftor, tezacaftor, Ivacaftor] allow the ability for increased CFTR protein at the cell surface level that results in increased CFTR channel activity.
While good, there are two ways where Arcturus might be able to create competitive advantages over drugs such as TRIKAFTA. The first way would be with respect to the targeting of CF patients with no therapy. Vertex's drugs have different functions which allows CF patients to create better breathing in the airways. Elexacaftor and tezacaftor work to allow more CFTR proteins to reach the cell surface. During this process, Ivacaftor is responsible for the opening of the channel to allow CFTR to reach the cell surface at greater capacity. All of this is good, but the problem is that it doesn't help patients who don't have a specific mutation. For instance, TRIKAFTA is approved for CF patients aged 2 years and older who have at least one F508del mutation in the CFTR gene or a mutation of the CFTR gene that is responsive based on in vitro data.
The competitive advantage Arcturus hopes to have here is that its mechanism of action of altering the mRNA responsible for CFTR protein creation, means that it can go after the entire CF patient population regardless of mutation type. What do I mean by this? Well, there are no FDA-approved drugs to treat all 2,000 CFTR mutation types in existence. A second possibility could be improved efficacy. If you think about it, TRIKAFTA brings more CFTR proteins to the cell surface. On the flip side, ARCT-032 is being developed to change the mutated CFTR into functional proteins. This approach remains to be seen, but this might be able to produce sufficiently more functional CFTR proteins. In turn, this could bring more chloride ions to the cell surface and result in an improvement over other already approved CFTR modulator drugs.
The ongoing phase 1b study was initiated in October of 2023. It is expected that up to 8 adult patients with Cystic Fibrosis will receive two administrations of ARCT-032. In the phase 1b portion of this trial, patients are going to be assessed for safety and multiple efficacy measures over a 4-week period. Again, it remains to be seen if this inhalable CF drug produces adequate results. However, it seemed to have done well when Arcturus released in vivo data at the North American Cystic Fibrosis Conference [NACFC] in November of 2023. In this preclinical data, it was shown that ferrets were required to keep receiving constant treatment with KALYDECO in order to prevent any progression of disease.
On the other hand, a single administration of ARCT-032 was shown to successfully allow epithelial cells to function and restoration of mucociliary clearance above levels that are only maintained by Kalydeco. The significance of this is that this was only 1 dose in a preclinical study, however, in the phase 1b human study these adults with CF are receiving two doses. It just now remains to be seen if this preclinical data translates well over to human data. Investors won't have to wait long either, that's because there is a major catalyst opportunity to look forward to in the first part of this year. It is expected that interim results from this phase 1b study, using ARCT-032 for the treatment of patients with CF, are expected to be released in the 1st half of 2024.
This program gets even better with other positive developments. Such developments don't guarantee success, but are nice to have been achieved nonetheless. The first positive development is that the CF foundation continues to believe in the mission of a mRNA treatment such as ARCT-032. Thus, in September of 2023, this foundation agreed to commit approximately $25 million to advance this inhalable treatment. I believe that not only can such a drug treat all CF patients regardless of mutation type, but it could also help improve the treatment paradigm for these patients as well. A second positive development would be with respect to the fact that this biotech received a Rare Pediatric Disease Designation from the FDA for ARCT-032.
Why is this huge? That's because if this drug is ultimately approved, then it would allow it to receive a Priority Review Voucher [PRV]. Such a voucher could be used to speed up the review of another drug in its pipeline. Another good option it may elect to explore would be to sell the PRV to another big pharmaceutical company. Another designation already given for this inhalable drug was Orphan Drug Designation as well. There have been multiple sales of such PRVs over the years which have produced significant cash for a biotech. Over the years they have decreased in value upon sale, but have stabilized at a specific average. A Priority Review Voucher today can be sold for an average of $100 million.
Financials
According to the 10-Q SEC Filing, Arcturus Therapeutics had cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of $369.1 million as of September 30th, 2023. It is in good shape with respect to the amount of cash runway it has. Why do I make such a claim? That's because it has been able to develop a pretty large deal with CSL as noted in the beginning above. Such a deal was made for the biotech to take advantage of this big pharma's commercial and manufacturing infrastructure. This is going to allow Arcturus to advance its mRNA-based vaccines targeting COVID-19, influenza, and 3 other respiratory infectious disease vaccines. Other good parts of the deal to note would be 40% profit sharing for the COVID-19 aspect of this program, a double-digit royalties scheme for influenza/3 other infectious disease vaccines, and the deal valued up to $4.5 billion. Such a deal is split up into the following components:
- An upfront payment of $200 million.
- Potential to earn up to $1.3 billion in development milestones.
- Possibility to obtain $3 billion in commercial milestones.
Based on its cash on hand, plus current pipeline advancement, it believes that it has enough to fund its operations to the end of 2026.
Risks To Business
There are several risks for investors to consider before investing in Arcturus Therapeutics. The first risk to consider would be with respect to the advancement of the phase 1b study, which uses inhalable ARCT-032 for the treatment of patients with Cystic Fibrosis [CF]. That's because even though a single administration of this drug was shown to do well, there is no assurance that this will translate over into human clinical testing. The hope is that deploying a functional mRNA to produce fully functional CFTR proteins for these CF patients, regardless of mutation type is possible.
A second risk to consider would be with respect to competition as it relates to ARCT-032. Even if this drug is ultimately approved, it will have to go up against a powerhouse in the CF space, which is Vertex Pharmaceuticals. It is not going to be easy to go against this big pharmaceutical company, especially since it has a big hold in this area. Consider that it raised full year 2023 CF product revenue guidance to be approximately $9.85 billion. Of course, continued uptake of these drugs is going to be on continued uptake of TRIKAFTA in the United States in patients 6 years of age and older, along with TRIKAFTA given to children ages 2 to 5 years. Plus, in addition to continued improved sales observed for TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO in multiple countries internationally.
A third risk to consider would be with respect to the advancement of its other mRNA drug, known as ARCT-810, which is being developed to treat patients with ornithine transcarbamylase [OTC] deficiency. That's because Arcturus is expecting to release interim data, from the phase 2 study using ARCT-810 for the treatment of patients with this urea cycle disorder, in the 1st half of 2024. This is going to be an important program to look into because there is an opportunity for Arcturus to break ground here.
How so? That's because the only cure for these patients with OTC deficiency is a liver transplant. What happens in this disorder is that the OTC enzyme is responsible for clearing ammonia levels from the blood. Without such an enzyme being able to achieve this, this leads to toxic levels of ammonia in the blood. In turn, this leads to neuropsychiatric symptoms, coma, and even death. With no approved medicines for this disorder, this is another shot on goal in the pipeline that it has.
The fourth and final risk to consider would be with Arcturus Therapeutics and its partner CSL having received approval in Japan for ARCT-154, which is a self-amplifying mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for initial vaccination and booster in adults ages 18 years and older. Even though such approval was received for this vaccine, there is no assurance that it will do well in terms of sales for this market. Not only that, but there is another uncertainty to consider here as well, which is that COVID-19 vaccine sales for many companies are starting to drop. For instance, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is still seeing a decline in product revenues for its COVID-19 vaccine. Still, it is nice that it has been able to achieve this feat. On the flip side, this at least proves that its self-amplifying mRNA vaccine technology works. This means that it could ultimately apply it towards other infectious diseases, besides COVID-19.
Conclusion
Arcturus Therapeutics is in a good spot right now with respect to its pipeline. It is a crucial year for it because it is gearing up to report results from two clinical studies from its pipeline. The first to mention would be with respect to the ongoing phase 1b study, which is using ARCT-032 for the treatment of patients with Cystic Fibrosis [CF]. Interim results from it are going to be released in the 1st half of 2024. Again, the goal is to target the underlying cause of this disorder regardless of mutation type. Also, to hopefully produce superior clinical data over a major competitor in the space, Vertex Pharmaceuticals. A second clinical product to go over in the pipeline would be ARCT-810, which is being developed for the treatment of patients with ornithine transcarbamylase [OTC] Deficiency.
This is another important program with an upcoming inflection point, in that data from this trial is anticipated to be released in the 1st half of 2024 as well. There is the possibility of eventually expanding the use of this company's self-amplifying mRNA vaccine technology towards other indications with partner CSL. For instance, there is a quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine ARCT-2138 in phase 1 testing. Along with a pandemic influenza in preclinical testing, known as LUNAR-FLU.
I believe that with two important clinical data readouts in the first part of this year, plus the potential of bringing ARCT-154 as a COVID-19 vaccine to multiple territories across the globe, holding Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. shares could benefit investors with any potential gains made.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666479-arcturus-1st-half-2024-rare-disease-drug-data-on-deck?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:36Z
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TORRINGTON – A jury of six Wednesday at Torrington Superior Court ruled against former city police officer Steven Cloutier’s claim he is owed monetary damages for suffering discrimination while he…
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https://www.rep-am.com/localnews/2024/01/31/jury-denies-former-torrington-cops-claims-cloutier-said-he-suffered-discrimination-while-struggled-with-cancer/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:36Z
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West Virginia Press Association
CHARLESTON, W.Va. — When children are entrusted to the state’s care, loved ones should be able to trust that they will be safe. However, that hasn’t always been the case. Lawmakers seek to improve outcomes for these children with a bill currently under consideration by the state Senate.
Senate Bill 474 establishes a Critical Incident Response Review Team under the West Virginia Department of Human Services to oversee and assess circumstances of the “death or near death” of a child in state custody. The Review Team will also examine cases of “death or near death” of youth with an ongoing Child Protective Services case, or in a family served or assessed by the agency during the during the prior 12 months.
Lead sponsor Mike Woelfel (D-Cabell) said, “The composition of the Review Team is diverse, which should add to the quality of its assessment of these tragic events. Adoption of a formal, ongoing oversight team will move us toward best practices, is overdue and will save lives. It is important we give the newly created DHS and its administration an opportunity to modernize how at-risk youth are served. The prior DHHR was much too unwieldy and, at times, poorly led. I see a renewed commitment by Dr. Cynthia Persily and her team to assure proper care and supervision of our most vulnerable children.”
The bill is up for a final vote in the Senate on Wednesday, after which it will proceed to the House of Delegates for consideration by that chamber.
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https://wvpress.org/wvpa-sharing/critical-incident-review-team-would-examine-deadly-incidents-for-children-in-state-custody/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:38Z
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House tees up vote to enhance child tax credit, revive tax breaks for businesses
The House is aiming to pass a tax cut package expanding the child tax credit for millions of families and restoring three key tax breaks for businesses
WASHINGTON -- The House looked to accomplish something unusual Wednesday in passing with broad, bipartisan support a roughly $79 billion tax cut package that would enhance the child tax credit and boost three tax breaks for business, a combination that gives lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle coveted policy wins.
Prospects for the measure becoming law are uncertain with the Senate still having to take it up, but for a House that has struggled to get bills of consequence over the finish line, the tax legislation could represent a rare breakthrough. Debate and a final vote on the measure are scheduled for the evening.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., threw his support behind the bill on Wednesday morning. He spent part of the previous day meeting with GOP lawmakers who were concerned about features of the bill, namely the expanded child tax credit. Some were also unhappy that it fails to address the $10,000 cap on the total amount of property taxes or state or local taxes that consumers can deduct on their federal returns. Raising the cap is a top priority of lawmakers from members of the New York congressional delegation.
Johnson committed to moving a bill that addresses the cap, but there is no bill text yet and legislation would have to move through the House Rules Committee, which leaves the timing very much in flux. Athina Lawson, a spokeswoman for Johnson, said the speaker and the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., agreed to work with members to “find a path forward."
Johnson called the tax cut bill on the House floor important, bipartisan legislation that would revive “conservative pro-growth tax reform.” He also said that it would bring an early end to a "wasteful COVID-era program" that has been plagued with fraud. Moving up the deadline for claiming the employee retention tax credit is expected to largely offset the cost of the tax cuts in the legislation.
Johnson also emphasized the importance of the bill moving through the House Ways and Means Committee before coming to the full House for a vote, saying it was a good example of how Congress is supposed to work.
House Republicans were anxious to restore full, immediate deductions that businesses can take for the purchase of new equipment and machinery, and for domestic research and development expenses. They argue such investments grow the economy and incentivize American companies to keep their manufacturing facilities and operations in the United States. The bill also provides businesses more flexibility in determining how much borrowing can be deducted.
“Each of these policies will help American businesses grow, create jobs and sharpen their competitive advantage against China,” Smith said as debate began on the House floor.
Democrats focused on boosting the child tax credit. The tax credit is $2,000 per child, but not all of that is refundable. The bill would incrementally raise the amount of the credit available as a refund, increasing it to $1,800 for 2023 tax returns, $1,900 for the following year and $2,000 for 2025 tax returns. The bill also adjusts the topline credit amount to temporarily grow at the rate of inflation.
Households benefitting as a result of the changes in the child tax credit would see an average tax cut of $680 in the first year, according to estimates from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
Democrats pushed to restore the more generous tax credit they passed in 2021 in President Joe Biden's first year in office with payments occurring on a monthly basis. The credit was $3,600 annually for children under age 6 and $3,000 for children ages 6 to 17. But most lawmakers were willing to take what gains they could get through the compromise bill.
“I'll continue to do what I can to fight for more,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash. “...We aren't reaching all the families who really can use the child tax credit the most.”
The bill also would enhance a tax credit for the construction or rehabilitation of rental housing targeted to lower-income households, adding an estimated 200,000 housing units around the country. And it would ensure victims of certain wildfires and the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment don't get hit with a big tax bill for payments they received as compensation for their losses.
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https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/house-tees-vote-enhance-child-tax-credit-revive-106845812
| 2024-01-31T23:10:41Z
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1:21gma3January 31, 2024Tips for avoiding mercury in fishABC News Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Jen Ashton shares what the nutritional differences are between farmed and wild salmon, and shares tips for avoiding mercury in fish. Up Next in newsTIKTALK: The Handy Ma’am offers some helpful tips for rentersDecember 22, 2023Sandra Day O'Connor, 1st woman on Supreme Court, dies at 93December 1, 20231 year after Club Q tragedy, loved ones share treasured memories of lives lostNovember 19, 2023
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https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/gma3/video/tips-avoiding-mercury-fish-106834047
| 2024-01-31T23:10:42Z
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We yesterday produced a report that dissected the different results we might expect from an investment in fixed to floating mREIT preferreds that were contrastingly indexed to short and long-term interest rates. Circumventing fixed to floating, we want to examine the potentials of high coupon fixed-rate preferreds in a changing economic environment. With the risk that interest rates could decline significantly, a high, fixed coupon preferred could meaningfully outperform a floating rate coupon. Armour Residential Inc.’s 7.0% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred (NYSE:ARR.PR.C) is today’s test sample.
The Agency mREIT World
AGNC Investment (AGNC) and Dynex Capital (DX) were early reporters of positive results from mREITs that navigate the volatile world of government agency mortgage investment. For many quarters, positive results have been hard to come by in this arena as rising interest rates, paired with mark-to-market portfolio pricing, have resulted in continuous book value erosion. We have always found the mechanics and markets of mREITs to be insurmountably complex and have, therefore, seldom taken a long position in their common shares. mREIT preferred shares, however, with their prioritized dividend payments and senior liquidation preference in the capital stack, are often intriguing, especially when the price is right.
Fixed Income with Growth Components
Fixed-income investors buying 10Y Treasuries today capture a 4.10% yield and a certain return of their investment capital. Against always present inflation, this is not the path to wealth.
Fixed-income securities purchased at deep discounts to their par value, however, offer a potential second layer to the calculus of total return. A cumulative preferred stock with a $25 liquidation preference and a 7.0% face coupon, available for purchase at $21.00 produces a current yield of 8.33%. If the macroeconomic environment shifts to accommodate lower interest rates, the preferred share discount shrinks, and capital appreciation can be harvested.
It has happened before.
Armour Residential REIT PFD Series C
In a prospectus dated 01/23/2020, oblivious to the looming pandemic, the likes of which had not been seen in 100 years, Armour Residential was offering 3,000,000 shares of a new, 7.00% cumulative Series C preferred stock.
ARR’s prudent management planned to use the offering proceeds to redeem all outstanding shares of their 7.875% Series B preferred stock. Then in March, COVID struck, and all hell broke loose for every finance/real estate issue. The floor fell out and the newly issued $25 ARR.PR.C’s price plunged to single digits. Despite government-mandated shutdowns, financial markets regained their composure, and by the start of 2021, ARR.PR.C again traded at their $25 par issuance value.
In early 2022, however, the Fed began its interest rate hiking campaign to combat inflation, and, like all fixed-income securities, ARR.PR.C’s share price suffered. At present, it seems that the interest rate hiking cycle might be on the verge of reversing, and high coupon fixed-income issues, like ARR.PR.C, should definitely be on your radar.
What’s it Worth?
In considering discounted preferred shares, you have to consider that if the company fails, you could lose your entire investment. If the company succeeds, there are likely limits to your upside.
ARR.PR.C shares were issued at $25.00. If the US economy returns to the 0% interest rate environment we experienced from the Great Financial Crisis until the end of 2021 (and I’m not saying it will), after 01/28/2025 ARR management can redeem ARR.PR.C shares at $25.00. I don’t expect to receive an open market or redemption result of materially more than $25.00 for my shares.
When you consider Armour Residential’s equity capital stack, ARR.PR.C’s liquidation preference (~$171.2MM) and its dividend are supported by the approximately 49MM common shares outstanding (market cap ~$950MM). Armour Residential navigates the market dynamics and other macroeconomic factors that other agency mREITs must address, and has thus far fared as well as peers. Importantly, ARR.PR.C’s dividend and liquidation preference, like most preferred shares, are senior to that of the common. That said, a prudent investor always monitors corporate operating performance.
In the interim, ARR.PR.C shares pay a prioritized annual dividend of $1.75 in monthly installments. Measured against a market price of $21.00, that translates to a going-in yield of 8.33%, more than double 10Y Treasury yields at today’s closing prices. That 8.33% yield is at the higher end when compared to other peer set, agency mREIT preferreds, and the yield is fixed; the fixed rate provides sort of a “bird in hand” certainty of yield going forward.
We initially became interested in the Armour preferred in 2021 because management broadcast that the company’s hedging-costs amortization was sufficient to shelter the dividend from taxation through 2022. 8% tax deferred yields are hard to come by, so we actively allocated shares to taxable accounts. Since the start of 2023, however, the dividend is no longer sheltered from current taxation, so it is better suited to IRAs or qualified plans.
A Compelling, Yield Boosting Addition to the Fixed Income Portion of your Portfolio
In today’s markets, there is a rising belief that inflation has been subdued and that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in the near term. If rate cuts materialize, ARR.PR.C will resume pricing like other fixed-rate securities with an upper limit. If interest rates fall a little or a lot, $25.00 is the upper limit value of Armour Residential Preferred C shares.
If interest rates do not fall, ARR.PR.C will pay its $1.75 dividend for an 8.33% yield against current market pricing.
We remain long.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666485-armour-residential-preferred-c-durable-8-33-percent-yield-with-19-percent-upside-to-better-times?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:42Z
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KENT – With her sights set on a fourth term in the General Assembly serving the 64th House District, state Rep. Maria Horn, D-Salisbury, kicked off her campaign Tuesday.Supporters joined…
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https://www.rep-am.com/localnews/2024/01/31/salisburys-horn-kicks-off-re-election-bid-in-64th-house-district/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:42Z
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West Virginia Press Association
WASHINGTON, DC— On Jan. 30, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) released the following statement on Federal Co-Chair of the Appalachian Regional Commission Gayle Manchin’s health after a car accident in Birmingham, Alabama.
“On Monday, my wife Gayle and her colleague Guy Land were involved in a car accident on the way from the airport to the hotel in Birmingham, Alabama for an Appalachian Regional Commission event that was planned for today. Both were admitted to UAB Hospital and are receiving excellent care. She remains in stable condition but will stay there for a couple of days for precautionary measures. We want to thank the first responders who answered the call and were first on-site to provide assistance and support.”
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https://wvpress.org/wvpa-sharing/u-s-sen-manchin-issues-personal-statement/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:44Z
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What to know about how lawmakers are addressing deepfakes like the ones that victimized Taylor Swift
The growing issue of AI-generated deepfakes has already been a hot topic in state legislatures
Even before pornographic and violent deepfake images of Taylor Swift began widely circulating in the past few days, state lawmakers across the U.S. had been searching for ways to quash such nonconsensual images of both adults and children.
But in this Taylor-centric era, the problem has been getting a lot more attention since she was targeted through deepfakes, the computer-generated images using artificial intelligence to seem real.
Here are things to know about what states have done and what they are considering.
Artificial intelligence hit the mainstream last year like never before, enabling people to create ever-more realistic deepfakes. Now they're appearing online more often, in several forms.
There's pornography — taking advantage of celebrities like Swift to create fake compromising images.
There's music — A song that sounded like Drake and The Weeknd performing together got millions of clicks on streaming services — but it was not those artists. The song was removed from platforms.
And there are political dirty tricks, this election year — Just before January's presidential primary, some New Hampshire voters reported receiving robocalls purporting to be from President Joe Biden telling them not to bother casting ballots. The state attorney general's office is investigating.
But a more common circumstance is porn using the likenesses of non-famous people, including minors.
Deepfakes are just one area in the complicated realm of AI that lawmakers are trying to figure out whether and how to handle.
At least 10 states have enacted deepfake-related laws already. Scores of more measures are under consideration this year in legislatures across the country.
Georgia, Hawaii, Texas and Virginia have laws on the books that criminalize nonconsensual deepfake porn.
California and Illinois have given victims the right to sue those who create images using their likenesses.
Minnesota and New York do both. Minnesota’s law also targets using deepfakes in politics.
University at Buffalo computer science professor Siwei Lyu said work is being done on several approaches, none of them perfect.
One is deepfake detection algorithms, which can be used to flag deepfakes on places like social media platforms.
Another — which Lyu said is in development but not yet being used widely — is to embed codes in content people upload that would signal if they’re reused in AI creation.
And a third mechanism would be to require companies offering AI tools to include digital watermarks to identify content generated with their applications.
He said it makes sense to hold those companies accountable for how people use their tools, and companies in turn can enforce user agreements against creating problematic deepfakes.
Model legislation proposed by the American Legislative Exchange Council addresses porn, not politics. The conservative and pro-business policy group is encouraging states to do two things: Criminalize possession and distribution of deepfakes portraying minors in sex acts, and allow victims to sue people who distribute nonconsensual deepfakes showing sexual conduct.
“I would recommend to lawmakers to start with a small, prescriptive fix that can solve a tangible problem,” said Jake Morabito, who directs the communications and technology task force for ALEC. He warns that lawmakers should not target the technology that can be used to create deepfakes, as that could shut down innovation with important other uses.
Todd Helmus, a behavioral scientist at RAND, a nonpartisan thinktank, points out that leaving enforcement up to individuals filing lawsuits is insufficient. It takes resources to sue, he said. And the result might not be worth it. “It's not worth suing somebody that doesn’t have any money to give you,” he said.
Helmus calls for guardrails throughout the system and says making them work probably requires government involvement.
He said OpenAI and other companies whose platforms can be used to generate seemingly realistic content should make efforts to prevent deepfakes from being created; social media companies should implement better systems to keep them from proliferating, and there should be legal consequences those who do it anyway.
Jenna Leventoff, a First Amendment lawyer at the ACLU, said that while deepfakes can cause harm, free speech protections also apply to them, and lawmakers should make sure they don't go beyond existing exceptions to free speech, such as defamation, fraud and obscenity, when they try to regulate the emerging technology.
Last week, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre addressed the issue, saying social media companies should create and enforce their own rules to prevent the spread of misinformation and images like the ones of Swift.
A bipartisan group of members of Congress in January introduced federal legislation that would give people a property right to their own likeness and voice — and the ability to sue those who use it in a misleading way through a deepfake for whatever reason.
Most states are considering some kind of deepfake legislation in their sessions this year. They're being introduced by Democrats, Republicans and bipartisan coalitions of lawmakers.
The bills getting traction include one that would make it a crime to distribute or create sexually explicit depictions of a person without their consent in GOP-dominated Indiana. It passed in the House unanimously in January.
A similar measure introduced this week in Missouri is named “The Taylor Swift Act.” And another one cleared the Senate this week in South Dakota, where Attorney General Marty Jackley said some investigations have been handed over to federal officials because the state does not have the AI-related laws needed to file charges.
“When you go into somebody’s Facebook page, you steal their child and you put that into pornography, there’s no First Amendment right to do that,” Jackley said.
For anyone with an online presence, it can be hard to prevent being a deepfake victim.
But RAND's Helmus says that people who find they have been targeted can ask a social media platform where images are shared to remove them; inform the police if they're in a place with a law; tell school or university officials if the alleged perpetrator is a student; and seek mental health help as needed.
___
Associated Press reporters from around the U.S. contributed to this article.
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https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/lawmakers-addressing-deepfakes-victimized-taylor-swift-106843884
| 2024-01-31T23:10:47Z
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Hitachi, Ltd (OTCPK:HTHIY) is a big Japanese company (not on the S&P 500) that has managed to achieve a (relatively) consistent share price increase of 46.5% over the past year. Hence it has substantially outperformed the S&P 500’s 23% rise over the same period. This is even more remarkable when one considers that the “Magnificent 7” (Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA)) are responsible for most of the S&P 500 outperformance in 2023. In fact, 72% of S&P 500 stocks underperformed the index in 2023. There is another S&P 500 company, General Electric (GE), with a Hitachi-like performance over the past year. In fact GE was up 66% over the past year, its best performance since 1963.
12 month performance of Hitachi, GE and S&P 500. Source Seeking Alpha
If one takes a 5-year view, the picture for Hitachi is even better as it outperforms GE and the GE share price has been more volatile. Over five years Hitachi is up 140%, GE up 119%, while the S&P 500 is up 82% over the same 5-year time period.
5 year performance of Hitachi, GE and S&P 500. Source Seeking Alpha
Here I explore why giant corporation Hitachi achieved what very few stocks did in 2023 and my take is that this involves positioning the company in a growing area which makes its success part of a long term trend. For conservative long term investors, Hitachi is worth a look. I’ve considered a little of the background of Hitachi elsewhere. Note that Hitachi celebrated the 150th anniversary of the birth of its founder Namihei Odaira in January 2024.
Hitachi has four business segments
i) Digital Systems and Services: This segment covers a huge area from IT & digital systems of financial institutions, public offices, municipalities and social infrastructure; it also covers IT Services including solutions and services; and finally it covers Services and Platforms including digital engineering, data analytics, cloud services and IT products
ii) Green Energy and Mobility: Energy solutions (power grids, nuclear, renewables and distributed power); all aspects of railway systems
iii) Connective Industries: This is a huge mix of products and services, including building services, healthcare, robotics, water, sewage, industrial equipment. A big aspect of this is digitalisation
iv) Automotive Systems Businesses: This includes powertrains, chassis, advanced driver assistance and motorcycle systems.
Hitachi and grids of the future
A complete overview of Hitachi is beyond the scope of a single article. Here I’ll give a flavour of two areas of Hitachi Energy that are key to the grid transformations happening as carbon-based power is replaced by renewable energy (and possibly nuclear power). This itself is a huge area so I’ll just give a flavour of the issues and how Hitachi is a leader in the transition. This may not be to everyone’s liking as Hitachi’s Digital Systems and Services business is itself huge.
Two recent articles from Hitachi Energy provide insight into how the company views where energy systems are going and how its products contribute to this picture.
The first talks about flexible supply in a time when intermittent power provision (solar PV and wind power) increasingly dominates power generation. To give an example of this, the German energy system has moved from installed solar PV capacity being 6.1 GW in 2008, to 67.5 GW in 2022, to a predicted 215 GW in 2030. These numbers reflect dramatic elements that are changing residual power needs in a 24h cycle from a “duck” to a “canyon” curve. The diagram below gives Hitachi’s view of four key dimensions involved with managing variability in a renewable energy power system.
The four dimensions of flexibility with digital technology at the core. Source Hitachi Energy
The above picture might be news to readers familiar with the coal and oil & gas industries view that “base load” power is essential for a stable grid. “Base load” is an outmoded concept. The issue is energy stability and flexibility is key to a stable system. In the past, grids were configured to cope with maximum load (even if such load occurred only for a few hours each year). This led to the overbuilding of base-load power delivery. As grids get decarbonized and power generation is moving to be dominated by renewable power generation, this has led to changes to put more emphasis on dynamic grid issues. This involves a focus on supply and demand, with demand management (paying not to consume) and time-shifting of power use becoming important tools for stabilising grids in times of excessive demand. With massive expansion of grid-scale batteries, this allows very fast response to changes in the power system.
The above image helps point to different aspects of emerging grids supporting a large proportion of renewable power. One area that is often neglected is inter-connectiveness between distant grids. The Texas grid is currently isolated from both eastern and western US grids. It has been argued that had there been connectivity (through HVDC cables) either east or west, the huge Texas power outages of three years ago would have been less impactful because the weather problem was focused on Texas.
The second article from Hitachi addresses the four key technology segments and how they interrelate to provide a stable and flexible power system. The four elements are: i) supply-side flexibility; ii) demand-side flexibility; iii) energy storage and iv) dynamically controllable grids. Hitachi identifies that advanced digital technologies can unlock the potential and complementarity of these four components to deliver optimal and coordinated grid responses.
A key issue about renewable energy is that, once the capture devices are built, there is no need for continued discovery and exploitation of energy reserves. Supply issues based on political issues (eg Russian invasion of Ukraine) or international mandates (eg COVID restrictions) become less important in a renewable-based grid. A key issue about solar PV and wind power is that while it is intermittent, it is predictable, based on weather forecasting. This is different from a big centralised power plant, which while mostly reliable, is subject to sudden and unexpected outages (eg equipment breakdown, freezing of power supplies in cold weather etc).
The means of power delivery isn’t the only feature changing in a renewables based power system. Electrification of everything (including wheeled transport and low temperature heating) means that demand fluctuates more so than in the past, where transport and heating were less involved with grid-demand. Hitachi argues that only with new digital tools can modern grids be managed effectively for issues like grid congestion.
Big new changes in supply come from growing rooftop solar PV and coming offshore wind, while the emergence of electric vehicles and heat pumps for low temperature heating make for new large and flexible demands. As electric vehicles begin to offer bidirectional charging and heat pumps time resolved energy delivery, these are likely to be new elements needing to be managed.
Digital tools enable management to address these contrasting supply and demand issues, but they on their own are not adequate. The missing link is energy storage, which offers flexibility for both short-term (seconds-hours) and long-term (days-weeks) solutions. Batteries are effective and fast short term modulators, while pumped hydro offers large scale and longer term flexibility.
Interconnectivity allows power imbalances to be smoothed out. The European Union electricity market requires that by 2030 member states have cross border interconnectors amounting to at least 15% of power generating capacity and by 2025 EU grid operators must allow at least 70% of their cross border capacities for daily power trading.
Grids need to be balanced and Hitachi has an important role in this process. Within the above Hitachi discussion lies core aspects of Hitachi’s business. It is also notable that Hitachi brings a global perspective with different solutions for countries with isolated grids (eg South Korea, Japan) having different needs to European countries which operate in an interconnected environment. This global view allows Hitachi to provide solutions and to foreshadow changes that many companies (and countries?) are yet to come to grips with. For example, whereas today electricity carries ~25% of energy, this will rise to 66% of energy in coming decades through growth of electric cars, heat pumps etc.
Being such a huge company it is difficult to get a sense of key developments, but recent press releases give a clue of new directions. These include Hitachi Energy’s acquisition of Italian company COET which strengthens Hitachi’s role in high-power electric vehicle charging infrastructure and power electronics, Hitachi Digital Services work with OneThird on reducing food waste in supply chains, and Hitachi Energy’s new SAM600 process interface unit to accelerate upgrading of conventional substations to digital substations making energy systems more sustainable, flexible, and secure.
There are 575 companies cited as consolidated subsidiaries as of December 2023.
Some key discussion points in the above articles include:
Hitachi and grid stabilisation
Hitachi sees grid stabilisation as a key issue. Interconnectivity is a big deal that is only now being seriously addressed. Hitachi Energy operates in 140 countries and it integrates more than 150 GW of HVDC links into power systems, but this is just the start.
There was 1,350 GW of renewable energy generation capacity waiting in 2022 to connect to US power grid(s). This problem arose because early renewable projects didn’t necessarily have grid connections sorted out when they began to get built. These days there is more focus on renewable projects being integrated and this is one reason why there is interest in delivering power from, for example, an offshore wind project to the site of a coal power plant that is being closed down. More than 100 countries have signed up to treble renewable energy by 2030. This is going to transform grids globally.
Hitachi and nuclear power
Hitachi is in partnership with GE and both companies have a high profile interest in advancing SMR (Small Modular Reactor) technology.
Given the above, I wonder where nuclear power fits.
I’ve reviewed nuclear and SMR (Small Modular Reactor) business developments recently and here is another excellent link about SMR (including GE-Hitachi technology). The thing about nuclear power is that it has struggled outside of China because of massive cost overruns and late delivery for major nuclear power projects in Europe and the US. SMR technology is raised as a new direction where cost can be managed by offsite construction of the core reactors with just assembly on site. SMRs vary in size from ~100 MWe through 470 MWe, with the GE-Hitachi BWRX-300 in the middle at 300 MWe. The problem is that apart from China, no SMR technology has actually been built and it is clear that single SMR facilities are prohibitively costly. So all proponents, including GE-Hitachi are promoting facilities with several SMR reactors on a single site. This blurs the boundary as to whether SMR means small as the projects seem to border on a normal large Gen III reactor size. SMRs are promoted as being much cheaper as the reactor is factory assembled, but the costs of installation on site may not be a lot cheaper than a conventional plant. And approval costs may be similar.
It is hard to get a fix on the cost to Hitachi for the GE-Hitachi nuclear adventure, but it must be significant. This is a risk to Hitachi that might need to be addressed relatively soon if the BWRX-300 fails to gain traction.
What the market thinks
Seeking Alpha authors and Wall Street have limited coverage in the past 90 days, with Seeking Alpha just one “buy” and Wall Street one “buy” and one "strong buy”. Seeking Alpha’s Quant rating is a “hold”. The Quant grades are a bit schizophrenic about Hitachi, with poor assessments for Valuation "C-" and Growth "D", but on the other hand excellent ratings for Profitability "A+", Momentum "A" and Revisions "A-". I’m not sure how a “D” for Growth and an “A” for Momentum live together, but readers can draw their own conclusions. **Editor's Note: Seeking Alpha's Growth Quant grade is based on the company's revenue and earnings growth while the momentum grade is based on the stock's performance.
Conclusion
When I started researching this article, I expected to see a huge and hard-to-move company that would not be very interesting to me. I looked at GE back in 2020 with a focus on how its excursion into offshore wind might move the company. The GE renewables business is still struggling but with interesting prospects. Today Dhierin Bechai sees the aerospace side of the company as the growth engine, but the prospects for the renewables business remain. With big changes, it can be hard to get the timing right, but the important thing for big companies is to position themselves to benefit from courageous decisions taken about where to go.
Hitachi has made a strategic decision to focus on grid buildout, grid stability and grid management. I think that this “quiet achiever” approach is a key aspect of the exit from fossil fuels, which is perhaps the biggest challenge humanity has faced for more than a century. The approach by Hitachi to focus on “flexibility” suggests a modern view of how grids will operate in the future. They plan to be part of how it is made to happen.
The numbers for both Hitachi and GE speak for themselves. The performance of both companies over the past five years is hard to fault. Hitachi’s share price over the past 12 months has shown a very stable and progressive increase. My take is that grid issues will become more prominent in the coming years, which positions Hitachi well for growth. Of course, there are many other levers to the Hitachi business and I’ll leave it for you and your financial advisor to sort out timing issues, but Hitachi is certainly worth having on your watch list.
I am not a financial advisor but I follow closely the massive and accelerating changes as the world begins to exit fossil fuels. Hitachi is a major player in one aspect of the transition. I hope that my perspective is helpful to you and your financial advisor as you explore investment opportunities in the change.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666488-hitachi-a-quiet-achiever-in-grid-transformation?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:48Z
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See what readers wanted to know from Waterbury Mayor Paul K. Pernerewski Jr. as part of Your Voice, your opportunity to ask questions of our local leaders. Thursday at 9 a.m. livestreamed on rep-am.com and on WATR 1320 AM.
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https://www.rep-am.com/localnews/2024/01/31/your-voice-follow-the-live-feed-thursday/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:49Z
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West Virginia Press Association
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — West Virginia University will lead a $1 million National Science Foundation funded effort to drive energy technology and infrastructure, as well as address issues involving decarbonization and grid resiliency, throughout the West Virginia-southwestern Pennsylvania region.
The Resilient Energy Technology and Infrastructure team, spearheaded by Erienne Olesh, executive director at the WVU Office of Student and Faculty Innovation, and Sheena Murphy, associate vice president for research development at the WVU Research Office, includes WVU, Carnegie Mellon University, the University of Pittsburgh and a host of regional nonprofits, industry stakeholders and government entities.
The initiative aims to identify pathways for workforce development that align with energy technologies and policy development that accelerates adoption of those technologies.
The NSF announced the award to WVU as part of its Regional Innovation Engines program. The program is designed to support the development of diverse regional coalitions to create innovation-driven solutions with economic and societal impact.
“As a historic energy producing region, this area is already primed to be the epicenter of the energy transition,” Olesh said. “With existing infrastructure and major energy industry partners already located here, this is a logical place to innovate on the next generation of energy technology. Importantly, the region also already has workforce capacity and the building blocks to continue developing the critical workforce that will be needed as we move into alternative energy sources.”
The NSF funding will support the development of critical partnerships to understand industrial needs and priorities, and engage with communities.
Vice President for Research Fred King said the project underscores the WVU land-grant mission and the University’s status as an R1 institution. Carnegie Mellon and Pitt are also R1 universities.
“The future of energy and sustainability are critical to this region,” King said. “WVU has an opportunity, alongside our colleagues at Carnegie Mellon and Pitt, to set a precedent in reimagining how we can power the nation in innovative, eco-friendly ways while, at the same time, bolstering the economy and creating new jobs.”
Joining Olesh and Murphy on the project are Sam Taylor, director, WVU Institute for Sustainability and Energy Research, and Elizabeth Vitullo, assistant vice president of economic innovation, WVU Office of the President.
By the end of the 18-month project phase, the team will develop lists of technologies ready for translation, interested commercial partners and policy statements to inform regional governments on effective activities to support a regional innovation engine.
After this phase, the team hopes to secure additional funding to put the plan into action.
“Energy resilience and security are at the forefront of national priorities,” Murphy said. “The need for reliable and diversified energy sources as well as increased resilience of grid infrastructure from natural and non-natural threats will only increase over the next decade.”
The team’s goals are aligned with the federal government’s executive order to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and the U.S. Department of Energy’s support for energy justice which prioritizes benefits to communities historically disadvantaged by the energy economy.
Additional partners include Bluefield State University, West Virginia State University, the Tri-State Energy and Advanced Manufacturing and In2Market.
“This is an opportunity for WVU to strengthen its regional partnerships, showcase its deep energy research portfolio and contribute positively towards the energy transition,” Olesh said.
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https://wvpress.org/wvpa-sharing/wvu-leading-regional-effort-with-1m-nsf-award-to-accelerate-energy-technology-infrastructure/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:51Z
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Chicago City Council again delays vote for police misconduct hearings
CHICAGO - The Chicago City Council delayed a vote for a second time on rejecting an arbitration ruling that keeps police misconduct hearings behind closed doors.
Delaying the vote is a sign Mayor Johnson is not confident he has the votes now, even though the vote went his way the last time by 33 to 17.
After the first rejection, an arbitrator ruled the council had to vote again.
Overruling the arbitration ruling takes 30 votes.
If the council votes to reject that ruling, officers facing the stiffest penalties would face the Chicago Police Board instead of an arbitrator.
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https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-city-council-again-delays-vote-for-police-misconduct-hearings
| 2024-01-31T23:10:52Z
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The International Olympic Committee is still not impressed with Italy's determination to spend about $90 million rebuilding a historic bobsled track for the 2026 Winter Games.
The IOC's latest statement Wednesday on the public rift came one day after local organizers of the Milan-Cortina d'Ampezzo Olympics moved ahead with a plan to revive a century-old sliding track in the Dolomites ski resort.
Aiming to avoid construction costs and potential white elephant venues, the IOC wants the Winter Games, opening in just two years' time, to use an existing track — with two nearby options in St. Moritz, Switzerland and Igls, Austria.
The issue has become one of Italian national pride to avoid paying another country to stage 12 of the 116 medal events.
"The IOC firmly believes that the existing number of sliding centers, globally, is sufficient for the current number of athletes and competitions in the sports of bobsleigh, luge, and skeleton," the Olympic body said in a statement.
SEE MORE: Lions vs. 49ers draws larger TV audience than Chiefs vs. Ravens
The IOC's opposition to an Italian renewal project on such a tight schedule — either at Cortina or Cesana, the now-closed sliding track at the 2006 Turin Olympics that was previously considered — has been publicly clear since its annual meeting in October held in Mumbai, India.
"(Only) existing and already operating tracks should be considered due to the very tight timeline remaining," the IOC said in a statement, stating it had been "unequivocal that no permanent venue should be built without a clear and viable legacy plan."
Italy's deputy prime minister detailed his country’s position Tuesday.
"It is not acceptable for the bobsled races to take place outside Italy," Antonio Tajani said on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. "We will do everything to achieve the goal."
Still, the Italian organizing committee aims to have a back-up plan if renovating the Cortina track used at the 1956 Winter Games is not ready by March next year.
The committee said after a board meeting Tuesday its plans rest on signing a contract with a Parma-based construction company that has offered to rebuild the Cortina track for $89 million.
Trending stories at Scrippsnews.com
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https://www.abc15.com/ioc-pushes-back-on-90m-plan-to-rebuild-olympics-bobsled-track
| 2024-01-31T23:10:52Z
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TRANSPORT STRIFE
Cape Town commuters gripped by fear after five taxi operators gunned down
Five members of the Cape Amalgamated Taxi Association were shot on Tuesday, with three fatalities, leading to calls for an increased police presence in hotspots.
Five taxi operators belonging to the Cape Amalgamated Taxi Association (Cata) were shot in three separate incidents on the afternoon of Tuesday, 30 January. Three died and two are recovering in hospital.
Sources suggest that the shootings may be linked to internal fights in the association.
Police spokesperson Warrant Officer Joseph Swartbooi said Nyanga police were called to the corner of Sheffield and Monwood Drive, Brown’s Farm, where they found the body of an unknown man who had sustained gunshot wounds.
“The 29-year-old victim was declared deceased on the scene by the medical personnel. It can be confirmed that two other victims were transported to a nearby hospital for medical treatment. The motive for this attack is taxi-related.”
A 21-year-old man was arrested.
Soon afterwards, police were summoned to Delft. When they arrived, they found a group of people standing around a Toyota Quantum near the corner of Main Road and Assegai Street.
“Upon further inspection, they found the body of an unknown man who sustained multiple gunshot wounds,” Swartbooi said. “The victim, a 32-year-old man, was declared deceased on the scene by the medical personnel.”
The suspects had fled the scene and no arrests have been made.
Two hours after this, another shooting occurred in Nyanga, where police found the body of an unknown man inside a white Mercedes-Benz minibus.
“The unknown suspects fled the scene and are yet to be arrested. The motive for this attack is believed to be taxi-related,” police said.
On 17 January, two taxi owners, both Cata members, were fatally shot while exiting a meeting venue in Nyanga.
Read more in Daily Maverick: Fears of taxi violence resurgence after two Cape Town owners gunned down
Cata spokesperson Nkululeko Sityebi said, “We are appealing to anyone with information to please come forward because these attacks took us all by surprise.”
Sourcess, however, have suggested that internal fights within the taxi association were behind the shootings. Attempts to interview taxi operators in Nyanga failed, as they all said they feared for their lives.
Security increased
Commuters at Nyanga terminus, where heavily armed private security were patrolling, were concerned that a taxi war had started.
“Taxi drivers are also anxious,” said Thandokazi Songcata.
“They rush us to get off when we get to our destinations, but they do not want to tell us what is happening. We are concerned about getting caught in the crossfire.”
Another commuter, Banele Seti, suggested that law enforcement officers should be deployed in Nyanga.
“These shootings are happening in broad daylight, and if law enforcement [were already] deployed around Nyanga, they could catch the shooters immediately.
“We are all worried and we are risking our lives because if we do not go to work, we will not get paid.”
Cata’s Sityebi said the association would station marshals in hotspots to ensure the safety of operators and commuters.
Western Cape Mobility MEC Ricardo Mackenzie said violence had no place in communities or the minibus taxi industry.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with those who have lost loved ones and those who were injured in these brutal incidents. The cases are under investigation by the South African Police Service and we cannot speculate as to the motives or potential connections to the minibus taxi industry.”
Taxi strike negotiations
Talks between government departments and the SA National Taxi Council (Santaco) are ongoing following the deadly taxi strike in August.
A Minibus Taxi Task Team was established to define a list of major offences in terms of which vehicles will be impounded and to define less serious offences for which the municipality will continue to issue fines.
The parties failed to reach an agreement last year and it was agreed that the negotiations would continue into 2024, with the next meeting scheduled to take place in February.
The taxi industry cannot launch an impromptu strike in the Western Cape in terms of a court order and an agreement between Santaco and the government last year.
Read more in Daily Maverick: Western Cape taxi strike updates
Santaco is bound by the agreement, which includes a clause that 36 hours’ notice has to be given before the commencement of any strike action. Failure to do this would place Santaco in contempt of court.
Additionally, a dispute escalation and resolution process will be established, allowing matters to be elevated to government leaders before strike action can be called.
This is to prevent a repeat of the heartbreaking scenes from the first day of the strike when commuters walked home late at night because of a lack of transport.
“As always, the Western Cape Mobility Department is working hard with our partners, including industry and local authorities, to regulate and formalise the minibus taxi industry,” said Mackenzie.
“Our primary priority is to ensure that commuters are safe and have affordable and reliable transport to get to work and school.” DM
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https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-02-01-cape-town-commuters-gripped-by-fear-after-five-taxi-operators-gunned-down/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:52Z
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Alouettes keep Grey Cup-winning OL together by signing Gagnon
The Montreal Alouettes announced Wednesday they have signed offensive lineman Philippe Gagnon.
De retour au bercail!
— Alouettes de Montréal (@MTLAlouettes) January 31, 2024
Les Alouettes prolongent le contrat d'un an du garde Philippe Gagnon.
✍️ → https://t.co/VWMlCxORKq#Alouettes présentée par @Miseojeu pic.twitter.com/EDgn8dGpkh
Gagnon, 31, played 11 regular season games with the Alouettes in 2023, including the Als' run to a Grey Cup title.
“Philippe brings us a lot of depth at a crucial position in football,” said Alouettes general manager Danny Maciocia in a statement.
Gagnon returns to the Alouettes alongside recently-signed fellow offensive lineman Kristian Matte.
Drafted in the first round (second overall) by the Alouettes in 2016, the L'Ancienne-Lorette native has played 81 career games in the CFL.
Gagnon spent the 2019 season with the Ottawa Redblacks before returning back to the Alouettes.
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https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/montreal-alouettes-keep-grey-cup-winning-ol-together-by-signing-philippe-gagnon-1.2070064
| 2024-01-31T23:10:52Z
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Man jailed for two years for blade attack on woman in Bonnybridge
and live on Freeview channel 276
Daniel McGrellis, 33, was convicted of assault to severe injury, permanent disfigurement and impairment following the incident which happened in the Bonnybridge area on December 29, 2021.
He was sentenced to two years imprisonment at Falkirk Sheriff Court on January 10 this year.
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Hide AdDetective Inspector Forbes Wilson said: “Daniel McGrellis is a violent individual who used a weapon to subject a young woman to a brutal attack which has lasting serious consequences.
“His conviction sends a clear message that violence such as this will not be tolerated by Police Scotland and anyone who acts in this manner can expected to be thoroughly investigated and brought to justice.”
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https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/crime/man-jailed-for-two-years-for-blade-attack-on-woman-in-bonnybridge-4500249
| 2024-01-31T23:10:52Z
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Call Start: 9:00 January 1, 0000 10:23 AM ET
Ashland Inc. (NYSE:ASH)
Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call
January 31, 2024 9:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Seth Mrozek - Director, Investor Relations
Guillermo Novo - Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Kevin Willis - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank
Joshua Spector - UBS Group AG
Mike Harrison - Seaport Research Partners
Jeff Zekauskas - JP Morgan
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies
John McNulty - BMO Capital Markets
Michael Sison - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
John Roberts - Mizuho
Operator
Good day. And welcome to the Ashland Inc. First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Seth Mrozek. Director of Portfolio Strategy. Please go ahead.
Seth Mrozek
Thank you, Abigail. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ashland’s first quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. My name is Seth Mrozek, Director of Portfolio Strategy for Ashland. Joining me on the call today are Guillermo Novo, Ashland’s Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Kevin Willis, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, I want to welcome William Whitaker, Vice President of Finance and Director of Investor Relations. Following this month’s organization changes to Ashland’s finance, strategy, M&A portfolio team. William and I’ll complete the Investor relations transition following this earnings cycle.
Ashland released results for the quarter ended December 31, 2023 at approximately 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time, yesterday January 30. The news release issued last night was furnished to the SEC in a Form 8-K. During today’s call, we will reference slides that are currently being webcast on our website ashland.com under the Investor Relations section. We encourage you to follow along with the webcast during the call.
As a reminder during today’s call, we will be making forward-looking statements on several matters, including our financial outlook for our second quarter and full year fiscal year 2024 results. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause future results or events to differ materially from today’s projections. We believe any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, but cannot assure that such expectations will be achieved.
Please refer to Slide 2 of the presentation for an explanation of those risks and uncertainties and the limits applicable to forward-looking statements. You can also review our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A for a comprehensive discussion of the risk factors impacting our business. Please also note that we will be referring to certain actual and projected financial metrics on Ashland on an adjusted basis, which are non-GAAP financial measures. We will refer to these measures as adjusted and present them to supplement your understanding and assessment of the financial performance of our ongoing business.
Non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for or superior to financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. The most directly comparable GAAP measures, as well as reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures to those GAAP measures are available on our website and in the appendix of today’s slide presentation.
Please turn to Slide 3. Guillermo will begin the call this morning with an overview of Ashland’s performance and results in the first quarter. Next, Kevin will then provide a more detailed review of financial results for the quarter followed by commentary related to Ashland’s outlook for the second quarter and fiscal year 2024. Guillermo will then provide an update related Ashland’s strategic priority and we will then open your line for questions.
Now I’d like to turn the call over to Guillermo for his opening remarks. Guillermo?
Guillermo Novo
Thank you, Seth, and hello, everyone. Thank you for your interest in Ashland and for your participation today. First, I want to acknowledge that Ashland will soon recognize 100 years in business. The company has transformed tremendously since 1924. Looking ahead, we anticipate an exciting future built on our portfolio of world-class businesses with innovation driving long-term sustainable growth.
Please turn to slide 5. Financial results in the December quarter exceeded our adjusted EBITDA outlook range issued on November 8, 2023, with revenues in line. Overall, sales declined 10% from prior year quarter to $473 million, and reflect market demand dynamics consistent with previously communicated expectations. Demand patterns generally improved as we move through the quarter, and with growing evidence of convergence between Ashland's sales volume and customer end market demand. The pockets of lower demand during the quarter were more aligned with specific customer or regional dynamics. With generally reduced stress on supply chains, customer order patterns timing has normalized to pre-COVID levels of less than 30 days. I would note that December sales exceeded our expectations, and although seasonally lower demand months, our sales and order book for January and February are also exceeding our expectations.
Pricing in some more competitive segments turn modestly unfavorable compared to the prior year as we comp against our inflation recovery pricing actions in the prior year. Maintaining a pricing margin balance will be critical as we navigate the moderation of costs and increase competitive activity. The Ashland team manage these dynamics very well during the quarter. The largest impact to our first quarter profitability was absorption related costs versus the prior year quarter as we prudently managed production and inventory levels. While we are cautiously optimistic about the improving demand trends that we're experiencing in the quarter and into January and February, there's still heightened uncertainty regarding customer demand normalization.
Typically, we would be building inventory for the peak season at this time and currently we are not doing that build. Ashland will remain disciplined in its production levels, targeting produce to near term demand. Production in the first quarter of 2023, exceeded customer demand as evidenced by the inventory build and necessary corrective actions later in the year, creating a difficult year-over-year comparison for the quarter. This is evident by comparing the sales and production balance volumes versus our prior year quarter. Sales volume and production volumes were down 12% and 24% respectively, or a 2x relative difference. The overall adjusted EBITDA impact of lower operating rates at our plants versus the prior year quarter, totaled $31 million. Primarily impacting our specialty additives and personal care business units. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter decreased 35% to $70 million, reflecting these dynamics, but were above our expectations for the quarter. In terms of our longer-term priorities, we're delivering on our strategic priorities to execute, globalize, innovate and acquire, to build resilience and improve performance of the core businesses, as well as drive long-term profitable growth.
We have conviction that our strategy will deliver sustainable, long term, above market growth for the company. Kevin and I will provide a detailed update later on our strategic priorities, but we remain on track and committed to delivering against our strategic and financial goals. We believe the current share price does not reflect our expectations for long-term growth, margin and capital return improvements with reduced performance volatility. We continue to believe our stock is an attractive use of capital as demonstrated by our repurchase of $100 million of shares during the quarter. Our strong balance sheet enabled us to pursue a balanced capital allocation approach investing in our targeted growth strategy in addition to returning capital to our shareholders.
Please turn to slide 6. Sales declined in each of our segments due to the factors that I referenced earlier with the largest relative impact in our specialty additives and intermediates business units. Discipline production was approximately in line with near term demand impacting plant loading, profitability, and improving ongoing pre castle for the quarter. However, we are encouraged by current demand patterns implying a recovery is underway with an expectation of continued momentum into the second half of the fiscal year, narrowing the range of possible demand recovery scenarios.
We continue to position the company for more resilient operations across multiple scenarios. While January and February demand improvements are encouraging, March is the critical month for seasonal demand pickup. We will be tracking March as a more meaningful indicator of demand normalization. We are well positioned for the coming inflection point.
Now, let me turn over the call to Kevin to review Q1 in more detail and I'll come back later to talk about our strategic, progress on our strategic actions. Kevin?
Kevin Willis
Thank you, Guillermo, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 8. Total Ashland sales in the quarter were $473 million, down 10% compared to prior year with reduced volumes for all segments. Pricing was favorable for the life sciences and personal care business units, but offset by softer pricing in intermediates and architectural coatings. Foreign currency had a favorable impact on sales of 1%. Gross profit margin declined to 25.2%, driven primarily by the absorption impact associated with decreased plant loading that Guillermo highlighted earlier. Negative absorption outpaced favorable price versus raw material costs during the quarter.
When excluding key items, SG&A, R&D, and intangible amortization costs were $103 million, down from $116 million in the prior year, mainly reflecting lower variable compensation expenses primarily related to equity-based comp. In total, Ashland's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $70 million, down 35% from the prior year. Ashland's adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 14.8%, down from 20.6% in the prior year, reflecting the factors I just discussed. Adjusted EPS, excluding acquisition amortization for the quarter was $0.45, down from $0.97 in the prior year quarter. Ongoing free cash flow improved to $66 million for the quarter, up from a $21 million use of cash in the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting changes in working capital, resulting from our prudent inventory management, as well as reduced incentive compensation payouts.
Now, let's review the results of each of our four operating segments. Please turn to slide 10. Within Life Sciences, normalized global supply of PVP reduced demand in pharma, versus a strong prior year period. Nutraceuticals has maintained a strong recovery versus a weak prior year period, while sales to nutrition end markets remained challenged. Overall, pricing for Life Sciences was favorable. Life Sciences sales declined by 3% to $200 million, while adjusted EBITDA decreased by 8% to $48 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 24%, primarily reflecting negative sales and production volumes, partially offset by favorable pricing.
Please turn to slide 11. Weakened demand negatively impacted Personal Care in the quarter, primarily within the skin and oral care segments, partially offset by strengthened hair care. Our Avoca business catering to the fragrance market remains challenged. Overall pricing for Personal Care was favorable. For the quarter, Personal Care sales declined by 7% to $129 million, while adjusted EBITDA declined 31% to $22 million. Pricing over raw material dynamics were sustained, but margins were negatively impacted by lower sales and production volumes.
Please turn to slide 12. Specialty Additives was impacted by reduced demand, though the architectural coating end market continues to be less impacted than others in the business. For the quarter, Specialty Additives sales declined by 15% to $122 million, while adjusted EBITDA declined by 74% to $6 million primarily reflecting production volume and sales declines. Pricing turned negative in the quarter versus the prior year quarter, but was offset by favorable raw materials.
Please turn to slide 13. Intermediates reported sales of $33 million down 39% compared to the prior year, driven by lower pricing and volumes. Intermediates reported adjusted EBITDA of $10 million compared to $23 million in the prior year and adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 30.3%, primarily reflecting lower pricing.
Please turn to slide 14. Ashland continues to have a strong financial position following another quarter of robust, ongoing free cash flow generation. As of the end of December, we had cash on hand of approximately $440 million, with total available liquidity of roughly $1 billion. Our net debt was $901 million, which is about 2.1 terms of leverage. We have no floating rate debt outstanding, no long-term debt maturities for the next three years, and all of our outstanding debt is subject to investment grade style credit terms.
As Guillermo noted, we continue to believe Ashland stock is an attractive use of capital and deployed $100 million to repurchase 1.2 million shares during the quarter, bringing the total over the last 30 months to $1.05 billion deployed and 11.1 million shares retired. We have $900 million remaining under the current evergreen share repurchase authorization. We are prudently managing inventory during the period of uncertainty. Inventory levels have decreased $136 million when compared to the prior year quarter and $38 million sequentially which better positions us to produce to demand. Overall, working capital management supported the generation of $66 million of ongoing free cash flow in the quarter delivering the compelling 94% adjusted EBITDA conversions. We are investing in our existing businesses and technology platforms to grow organically and continue to pursue our strategy of enhanced profitable growth through targeted bolt-on opportunities focused on pharma, personal care and coatings.
Ashland's balance sheet is well positioned to continue to give us the flexibility to pursue our targeted growth strategy as we reward our shareholders with a strong dividend policy and continued share repurchases.
With that, I'll now provide an update on the execute pillar of our strategic priorities in addition to an updated outlook. Please turn to slide 16. A key aspect of our execute strategic priority captures needed portfolio optimization to address underperforming businesses that are not core and where we do not have technology or market leadership. As previously outlined in our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call, we have four primary portfolio actions underway. Divesting our nutraceuticals business, optimizing and consolidating our CMC and MC-industrial businesses, as well as rebalancing our global HEC production network.
The nutraceuticals process is underway and going well. Nutraceuticals is a high quality business and continues to reform as evidenced by its recent strong recovery, but outside of our core business and strategy. The process has gained significant interest from higher value owners, and we expect to sign and close a transaction within this fiscal year. Ashland's most advanced portfolio action involves optimizing and consolidating our CMC business. We are exiting low margin business and migrating select CMC volumes into Alizay, France, resulting in a closure of CMC production capacity in Hopewell, Virginia during the fiscal second quarter of 2024.
This work stream led to $21 million of accelerated depreciation expense during the quarter. Other actions to improve Ashland's MC-industrial and HEC businesses continue to be assessed and will be communicated in due course.
As we take these actions, we will be exploring opportunities to leverage these assets to repurpose and support other strategic priorities. We continue to expect the portfolio optimization activities to be complete by the end of calendar year 2024. In summary, all portfolio actions are on track and we are committed to act with appropriate urgency to deliver on our commitments, including the reduction of all stranded costs that result from these actions.
Please turn to slide 17. As highlighted on the left, our portfolio actions will have a meaningful impact on the company's profitability, as well as capital and operational efficiency to deliver stronger performance. Specifically, once the actions are fully complete, we expect expanded adjusted EBITDA margins of 200 to 250 basis points and increase to return on net assets of 150 to 200 basis points. A 10% to 15% improvement in network utilization rates and impacted product lines as select SKUs are shifted within the network and a 10% reduction in working capital, as well as capital investment avoidance going forward.
We expect a modest reduction in fiscal year 2024 sales from our portfolio actions, totaling $30 million to $40 million of lower sales related to CMC and industrial MC versus 2023. The impact from a nutraceuticals sale will be dependent on the timing of closing, but the business is averaging quarterly sales of approximately $30 million over the past 12 months. And lastly, we expect no material sales impact from rebalancing our HEC production network in fiscal year 2024.
Looking ahead to fiscal year 2025, we expect sales to reduce an additional $130 million to $150 million versus fiscal year ‘24 as a result of the completed portfolio actions with little to no impact on EBITDA. We are committed to eliminating the stranded cost associated with these actions and recapturing lost gross profit, making them EBITDA neutral. There are approximately $80 million in stranded cost and $20 million of reduced gross profit associated with our actions. The majority of the stranded costs are directly related to manufacturing and will be eliminated after production is consolidated and the lost gross profit will be offset by improved utilization in the plant network.
While we are still finalizing the plans and specific cash costs for some of our portfolio actions, we expect the CMC and industrial MC working capital release and capital avoidance to approximately fund the one-time cash cost associated with our plans.
Now onto our outlook. Please turn to slide 18. As we look ahead into Q2 and fiscal year 2024, the major question is the timing and magnitude of the demand recovery. As Guillermo mentioned, current demand patterns imply recovery is underway, with our sales volumes beginning to align with customer end market demand trends. Specifically, January sales are demonstrating a strong month-over-month recovery of approximately 25%, which is roughly in line with January 2023, a period before de-stocking had intensified. In addition, February is shaping up to be a promising month based on order pattern.
As Guillermo indicated, March is the lynchpin month of the quarter and will largely define the magnitude of the recovery we are seeing in January and February. While these are clearly positive data points, the critical question is how sustainable is this demand normalization? The current trends suggest a demand recovery occurring in our second quarter with potential momentum heading into our second half of the fiscal year. We are encouraged by recent demand activity for our products as well as positive economic, consumer, and industry data. The next critical assumption is margin management. Depending on margin recovery, competitive pressures will vary across different segments. Maintaining pricing discipline will be important during our second quarter, but also throughout the year.
We do expect pricing pressures to be partially offset by raw material deflation, but the timing will be important as we work through existing inventory. The Ashland team is keenly focused on pricing versus raw material balance for the year, which serves as a risk and an opportunity for overall results. We have committed to produce to demand. We're much better positioned to do so than our prior year when, in hindsight, production in the first half of the year meaningfully outpaced demand requiring inventory actions later in the year.
We do expect absorption benefits as demand normalizes, which should be much more impactful during the second half of the fiscal year as compared with 2023. That said, we're continuing to manage production activities to maintain inventory discipline. Taking all of this into account for the fiscal second quarter, the company expects sales in the range of $565 million to $585 million and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $115 million to $125 million. For the full year, we expect sales in the range of $2.15 billion to $2.25 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $460 million to $500 million.
Based on recent demand trends, we have removed the downside demand recovery scenario that we discussed on our last earnings call from our range of possible outcomes. Key risks and opportunities are listed on the slide, but aside from demand recovery, variability in plant loading and price versus raw material balance will be critical for upcoming financial results.
And now let me turn the call back to Guillermo to provide an update on our strategic priorities. Guillermo?
Guillermo Novo
Thank you, Kevin, and please turn to slide 20. Our strategic priorities remain unchanged and continue to guide our actions, investments, and profitable growth expectations. The priorities include execute, globalize, innovate, and acquire as we outlined in our Innovation Day during the last earnings call. Each priority is rooted in our passion to win and operate with urgency. Our execute priorities include select portfolio actions. As Kevin shared, we are making good progress on these actions and the resulting impact will strengthen Ashland's performance. Our Globalize and Innovate priorities are focused on profitable growth. The Ashland team is making progress in both areas.
Please turn to slide 21. Activities are underway to globalize four of our higher growth and higher margin business lines, which include two businesses within pharma, are injectables and our film coatings for oral solid dose tablets, as well as two businesses in our personal care businesses. Biofunctionals and preservatives. Taking a closer look at pharma, the injectable business is making good progress across early, mid and commercial stage pipeline activities. The number of viatel development pipeline projects increased in the quarter, totaling 160 programs. Projects in development are progressing through the evaluation stages. vialtel ultrapure has already realized first commercial sales within two months of launch ahead of expectations. Similarly, the OSD film coatings business successfully secured new customer wins in key geographies and continues to strengthen customer intimacy as we build local support.
Shifting to personal care, the Biofunctionals business commissioned a new production facility in Nanjing, China, which I had the pleasure of visiting last week during my China trip. The ability to innovate and purchase materials locally, produce in country and supply products that are tailored to local preferences is a source of differentiation and advantage in the region. The Preservatives business has established labs around the world to enable the same level of service independent of geography and are focused on developing multifunctional preservatives. All four business lines took steps to accelerate globalization activities and remain hyper focused on implementing their respective business plans.
Please turn to slide 22. Innovation is a fundamental component of our growth strategy. We have oriented the company around innovation and are investing in both our existing and new technology platforms. As we shared during the 2023 Innovation Day, Ashland has a rich history of leadership positions within existing technologies. We're building the same in our new platforms. As a reminder, the new technology platforms we discussed included our Bioresorbable polymers, our transformed vegetable oils, our novel cellulosics, superwetting agents, liquid cellulose plus, as well as multifunctional starch and pH neutralizers, both of which are launching soon.
The new platforms all share similar themes. These technologies are scalable. We are commercializing in several market segments, which increases our overall growth opportunity. They're tunable. We're working with customers to tailor the technology to their specific needs. And the technologies have multiple functionalities. They create value beyond a one-for-one drop-in replacements. Multifunction offers the potential to avoid performance trade-offs in our customers' products.
For the last few months, our leadership teams have presented our new technology platforms to many of our customers in personal care, coatings, and life science. I'm happy to say that they will receive with a high level of interest and excitement. We expect to start more specific collaboration projects with many of our customers. Our coherent innovation strategy with a hyper focus on execution has yielded near-term updates in our new technology platforms that I'd like to share.
We continue to advance the development and sale of these platforms. We commercialize products in transform vegetable oils and super wetters that are gaining customer adoption and growing sales -- the sales opportunity pipeline. We're excited about the discoveries made for transformed vegetable oils and architectural coatings and the positive testing in crop care for seed coatings. Super wetting agents platform continues to expand as we work to launch within crop care. The development within the pH neutralized platform is advancing with a planned launch later this year. Sales, development, and testing of other new platforms is moving well and we will share updates accordingly in future calls.
We're all excited with the progress made, the continues continued discoveries and the customer feedback. Although, we expect most of the impact of these investments to begin in fiscal year 2025, we will work diligently to accelerate their impact into fiscal year 2024 and provide periodic updates on our progress.
Please turn to slide 23. In closing, our approach to this fiscal year is straightforward. Build resilience by focusing on clarity of action in the face of uncertainty. We recognize that these are challenging times for our industry, but we also recognize the opportunities that lie ahead. Recent demand trends are promising and we are cautiously optimistic. The Ashland team is poised to capitalize on improving market conditions, but will continue with production discipline during this period of uncertainty. We will stay on strategy, maintain operating and capital allocation discipline, and take appropriate actions to maximize fiscal year 2024 performance. This includes optimizing our portfolio, focusing on our core businesses, and perhaps more importantly, continuing to invest in our long-term growth strategy.
We are confident in the quality and resilience of the markets we serve and our future. I want to thank the Ashland team once again for their leadership and proactive ownership of their businesses in a very dynamic environment.
Thank you for joining us and operator, Abigail, if we could move to Q&A.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter
Thank you. Good morning. Guillermo, on the sequential strength you are seeing, can you describe what end markets and what geographies is occurring in and just how strong is this in February versus January?
Guillermo Novo
We're seeing it across all the segments. As we said last year, the pharma segments came out of a very strong year, so that's normalizing a little bit especially on the PVP with some competitors coming back into the market. But the rest of them, we're seeing it pretty broad based. If I look at December, January and February, December was stronger. We did see some pushback of orders into, it was pushing back just to end of the year things, but even with those pushbacks, December came in stronger and January continued to strengthen. So it is building up. If you look at daily rates, the January and February are sort of maintaining a consistent daily rate. But the question really is going to be March. January and February are good that they're up versus expectations are more normalized. But usually the March, April is really when the season starts from a sales perspective. So when we compare it to prior year, our production remained lower, but the sales are clearly picking up. The one area that we're looking at right now just for clarity is between, within the quarter, I don't think it's going to impact Q2 to Q3, but some of the issues in Europe with strikes and shipping, are we going to be able to today ship everything and some things might go into February, but that would just mean a strong February for us. So it's a pretty broad momentum.
David Begleiter
And just in Q2, do you expect any impact and so how much from inventory control actions?
Guillermo Novo
So we're going to maintain where we are today. So that is really going to be in our outlook, both for the quarter, but more importantly, I think it's for the second half of the year. It's a two to one ratio right now between volume and sales and volume and production. If things pick up and we feel more confident, we're going to dial in the production, depending on confidence. We now have, we're back to pre-COVID in terms of visibility. So the issue that we have now is 30 days visibility. We don't have this order book like last two years, we've had 90 days of orders, so it was much easier to see what was happening from our customers. Now we have to really count on our models or forecasting models. Clearly what's happened, our models statistically aren't as robust because just the last few years, the last two years, especially last year that we're down. So we're really trying to read into that normalization. The key points that we look at in terms of our demand outlook. One is most of the customers are saying that the destocking is behind. There are obviously maybe specific customers can have a little bit, but in general, the destocking is a bit behind us.
Two, that we have three months now of visibility that is improving sequentially and continue to gain strength. And three is just what our customers, if you look at our customers earnings calls right now and their outlooks, it's projection of volumes being flat for at least the markets that we serve being flat-ish. So if they remain -- last year they were flat-ish and we were down. This year they're going to be flat-ish. We should be getting back to this connection to their own demand. And that's sort of the model that we're using at this point in time.
David Begleiter
So is there a number versus $31 million in Q1 we can use?
Guillermo Novo
We haven’t -- the quarter-on-quarter. It'll be, I mean last year, Kevin and you can comment is we had stronger above sales production in Q1 and Q2. So the situation will flip more in the back end of the year where we took the actions last year. But Kevin, you might want to add more color.
Kevin Willis
Yes, sure. So based on the outlook that we have for Q2 and the full year, our inventory is pretty well positioned right now. We wouldn't see any need to take significant inventory control actions throughout the balance of the year. So that's the first thing. I think the second part for Q2 versus last year, we started slowing down, I would say, our production later in the quarter in Q2 in some of our facilities. So year-over-year the guide would imply that we're kind of flat-ish on the absorption piece of the equation. This Q2 versus last Q2. I mean there could be a little bit of play in that but generally pretty flat-ish overall.
Operator
Our next question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS.
Joshua Spector
Yes, hi. Good morning. I actually want to kind of follow up on a similar point there. So rather than year-on-year, maybe if we talk sequentially second quarter into the third quarter or second half, you expect EBITDA to step up another say $25 million or so per quarter. Is that predicated on your production matching your demand? Or are you making the point that in second half, you might produce more than demand to try to rebuild inventory? So, wondering what needs to happen in your base case for that step up into the second half.
Guillermo Novo
We are not forecasting building inventory. So, usually we build inventory now and then we produce to, demand because we are maxed out in the back end of the year. So, we are still forecasting to demand. If you look at our outlook, the low end is going to be driven more by sales slowing down. The move to the higher end has a much more of a mix of both higher volume sales and we would start to increase production. So the production impacts would be more of the upside drivers as we go into the year. And the other thing that I would say, it also because of the production, which segments recover are important because the upside on the manufacturing has a big impact in things like our specialty additives as an example. So, that recovers, that will also strengthen the mix impact. Kevin, you have any other comments you would add?
Kevin Willis
Yes, I will go ahead and add a couple things. Josh, if you look at our Q1 actual, the implied Q2 based on the guide and then think about the midpoint of the full year guide, what that would imply is that Q3 and Q4 would be approximately equal to Q2 of last year from an EBITDA perspective. We don't plan to build inventory. We don't see a need to build inventory. We're going to continue to produce to demand. I think the important point here is that as demand ramps, and we expect it to continue to do so based on the guide that we're giving, the outlook we're giving, that would imply that we'll need to produce more. And there's good leverage, just like you saw a negative leverage last year as we took significant inventory actions, particularly in Q4, there's a lot of positive momentum that comes out of that as well.
And then as you go forward, that just balances itself out into a more normal flow. But we would expect much better absorption in the second half of the year for sure than we saw last year in the second half, and also, frankly, much better than what we expect in the first half of this year.
Joshua Spector
Thanks and I appreciate that. And just thinking about the range of outcomes from a sales perspective and what that means. So you made some interesting comments about demand reconnection and your customer's demand flat or a couple years, you're maybe run rating down 10% to 15% volumes. I guess if you go through the bridge of where things could be at, you talked about maybe 1% to 2% lower volumes because of your exits of certain businesses. I guess, is there anything else that limits that reconnection? So customers holding less inventory, any share shifts, or what's the potential volume regain you could see if you actually see further sequential improvements either this year or just longer term.
Guillermo Novo
So let me comment, and Kevin, you can add some color, but if you look at the volume drivers for us in terms of share and reconnect, so our first step is just reconnecting to our customers. We have a lot of contracts with customers, so it's really about them not destocking and now that our alignment goes with their volumes. And I think this is where we don't have perfect clarity and the models that we have are showing improvement, but we're not showing that we're going to necessarily reach where their flat volumes are, but we are showing significant improvement.
So we're closing our gap between them and us. So there could be some upside there if things pick up a little bit more. Other than that, I think we'd really now get into share gains, innovation growth, what's going to drive those volume activities, and that's really where we're focusing on our core businesses, HEC, Aquaflow, Benecel, [inaudible], PPP, those kinds of products, and I think those, if they grow, they're higher margins for us.
And where we're taking the sales reductions are more in businesses that don't generate a lot. So we're taking off the absorption noise of those low-end businesses. So the mix, I think, as we look forward, is not just are we hitting the volume growth, is are we hitting them in the higher value segments or are we hitting them in the segments that have the more absorption upside in terms of that recovery impact? And that would be mostly in our cellulosics and specialty items, as well as our intermediates.
Kevin Willis
I’d say that's very, very fair now. And let me just add in terms of the outlook, we do not anticipate any major share shift pro or con. There's always some of that that happens, but we don't anticipate big share gains or anything like that in terms of supporting the outlook. So this is just kind of normal operations that we expect to see a nice pickup in the second half in terms of what we're projecting versus what we see from our customers. Say where the outlook would presume that we close that gap, but not completely. I mean, there's play in there. I would say at the upper end of the outlook, it's a more complete closure, at the lower end it's less.
And in the middle, I think is frankly, just where we're comfortable with based upon how we see order pattern flowing, how we see demand flowing through as well, et cetera. So said another way, there's nothing extreme in those numbers. There's nothing heroic that has to happen. There's also no presumption that anything particularly negative is going to occur. We're using the facts as we currently have them and see them.
Operator
Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.
Mike Harrison
Hi, good morning. You mentioned this consolidation that's going on with your CMC production at Alizay in France and closing some CMC capacity in Hopewell. Can you give a little bit more detail on the timing of those actions? And then is the benefit there just that you have better operating rates in Alizay or is there some near term plan to repurpose those assets in Hopewell?
Guillermo Novo
Okay. I think there's several benefits that we're going to get. One is we will be reducing our exposure on a low margin business that has a high capital intensity and high absorption intensity. So it creates a lot of volatility with very little upside. And as we said in other calls, 2022 was really one of the best years we've had. And we still had returns on those businesses that were not, they were below our cost of capital. So they're not sustainable long term. So we remove some of that noise. The second thing is that, as you said, we load Alizay, we can improve our mix, we can take some actions that asset and the returns that we get will be much better. And those will be parts of the business that we can actually invest in and grow for the future. So it stabilizes the core parts of CMC that we like, that we want to grow and maintain. And then the last thing is, yes, we are looking at how we can repurpose the purpose.
We didn't, in the depreciation number, so depreciation number that Kevin mentioned, that's not all the assets we are planning to see how we can repurpose. There is other some of the advanced, the new cellulosic technologies, we need a plan to make those. We could make it in parts of that plan. We can restructure the CMC plan to do other cellulosic products. And we're looking at how we can better manage our mix. That's -- those are all activities that we're looking at this point in time. So all three of those areas would be part of the improvements. And what we'll see is improve margins, improve return on capital. And really our ability to use the capital we have to focus on the better, higher quality businesses. So we'll allocate that capital better than to sustain these older businesses that really aren't, haven't improved and they're not going to improve significantly in the future.
Kevin Willis
And Mike, we would expect to close that CMC unit down by the end of this quarter. The inventory sell-through will take longer as we work with our customers on closing that part out. We also have processes underway to transfer materials into Alizay and ramp that up, which is a process in and of itself. As Guillermo indicated, over time, we'll figure out what makes sense in terms of the current CMC assets. I mean, suffice it to say, we won't be making CMC in those units and potentially they can be repurposed down the road for something else. And we're -- we have a work stream focused on that as well.
Mike Harrison
All right. Thanks for that. And then, Kevin, you mentioned the lower variable comp and lower equity-based comp that you saw year-on-year in Q1. When does that variable comp maybe flip to being a headwind year-on-year? And I guess for the full year, how much higher should we expect variable comp and merit or cost of living increases to be for the full year?
Kevin Willis
Yes, merit is already flowing through. We change merit. We change merit first of the year. So call it January is when that is that's flowing through. All that's anticipated and contemplated in the outlook. In terms of the Q1, most of that is equity-based comp. A very small portion of that is annual incentive comp. So it's more of the equity piece. I would expect the corporate side of the equation to return to call it more normalized levels, Q2 through Q4, time frame. The year-over-year difference from a merit and incentive comp perspective, it's about $25 million for incentive comp year-over-year, and about $15 million would be the merit increase impact year-over-year.
So those two things would be roughly $40 million higher this year than last year at target. And so you won't see all of that [inaudible] a big chunk of that goes through COGS because it's related to plants in terms of both the annual incentive and the merit increase. Most of our employees are actually in the plants. So it'll flow through various places in the P&L, but that's the number.
Operator
Our next question comes from Christina Lowe with JP Morgan.
Jeff Zekauskas
Hi, this is Jeff Zekauskas. Can you hear me? Okay, good. Thank you. Is the intermediate consultants business getting better or worse if you have visibility on that?
Guillermo Novo
No, it's been stabler. I mean, most of the volume drops have happened in last year. So even if you, obviously a big impact quarter on, year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in the last versus ‘23, but still is performing better than it did historically. So I think the two things we need to look at, it's performing better historically, because we have refocused it, we're focused on different regions where we have competitive advantage. Most of the stuff now is going into EV batteries, semiconductors, coatings, high quality segments, US, Europe, we obviously do sell still a little bit in Europe and the electronic side.
And that's that slowdown for us because it's just the competitive intensity. So if you look at the slowdown, there's two sides to it. There’re our markets, and then there's the BDO dynamic. BDO, we don't, we're not a big player there. But BDO prices have come down a lot more because of the commodity markets and or urethane fibers, all these other markets. So there's an excess, especially in Europe of raw material, BDO prices come down. So a lot of the NMP and BLO producers have a lower cost base right now. So there's a lot more aggressive positioning for loading volumes and things of that nature coming from Asia. The issue is we've seen it mostly on volume, we're seeing some pricing, but we're still being able to maintain a better position.
I think the issue now is as volumes start recovering, not just in our markets, the EV, the semiconductor spaces, picking up again in the regions that we're focusing on will be good, but really as the trend we're seeing applies to other companies later on in terms of some of the more commodities and BDO prices start coming up that also will change a little bit of the dynamics in our spaces. So you got to look at both of those, that cost implication of BDO and the demand within our own markets as big drivers, because it's more of a commodity, it's not as differentiated as other parts of our portfolio.
Jeff Zekauskas
Your unallocated costs were $16 million in the quarter. Is that the normal run rate for you now? And is there any meaningful share issuance? I know you put back a $100 million worth of stock. Are you issuing any shares to different plans?
Guillermo Novo
So I'll start with kind of the unallocated. Unallocated in Q1 was light primarily because of equity-based comp. I would say the more normalized level that we expect to see and what we would have in our outlook is more like around $20 million a quarter for the balance of the fiscal year. In terms of the share we purchase, there's been no meaningful change in what we do there in terms of, yes, when we buy those shares, we retire them. And so there's no other use that we're applying those to. So right now as we stand today, total share count is around 50 million based on the repurchase of those shares. The weighted average for the quarter is higher than that because we repurchase during the quarter. But we'll do a couple hundred thousand shares a year for comp-based things, but nothing's changed with that.
Jeff Zekauskas
And then lastly, I may have been muddled over your earlier discussion. Your revenue forecast for the March quarter is $565 million to $585 million. And your revenues in 2023 in the March quarter were $603 million. And you talked about the orders being much stronger than you expected, though I don't what your expectations actually were. So you talked about how important March was. So in that $565 million to $585 million, we're expecting volumes to be generally lower year-over-year in the March quarter, is that right? And that's the current pattern for the first two months too, or March is really different.
Kevin Willis
I would say we do expect volumes to be a little bit lower in this March quarter versus last March quarter. And again, that's based on the best look that we have. March could change that. I mean, I think we're looking probably low single digits year-over-year from a comparison perspective on volumes. And the other dynamic that's coming into play is the price mix piece. As we said in our comments, there is some interplay there around price, raw materials and volumes. And so we're trying to make sure that we strike the appropriate balance as we do compete for some volume in the marketplace as demand has more normalized right now. So it's really going to be a combination of all those factors.
Jeff Zekauskas
What was the volume comparison in January?
Kevin Willis
We haven't closed January yet, so we've got to see that.
Guillermo Novo
Yes, I was going to say, we don't know yet. It's still the order. The order book, I mean, look, it was significantly stronger and normalizing a little bit more. I think we need to look, get back to you with some comments on, with February, remember last year, we're also looking at China and all the things that were happening. So we're trying to look at some of those comparison on a quarter-on-quarter. I think what we're seeing right now is the sequential, the momentum of improvement. I think the biggest challenge right now is to forecast inflections. When things are good and they turn down, it's very difficult to forecast. And now when things were down, if we're starting to really see an inflection of changing, I think that's the really bigger focus for us right now. As Kevin said, there's still things that we can't really be perfect about in terms of not just the year-on-year, but production volumes and other things on how good can this get.
And we're just going to be prudent as we move forward in some of our numbers and projections just given the history. And that now we really don't have, as I said at the beginning, we don't have visibility to the orders anymore. And our models, our statistical models don't capture recovery, right? So I think we're going to be looking recovery more based on the more recent demand. If we look at 12 month moving average demand versus two month moving average demand, our two month moving average demand is increasing significantly and strengthening. And now we have three data points. So I think now we feel a little bit more comfortable on that side.
Operator
Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander
Good morning. What's the price versus cost differential so far and how do you think, when you think about the range that you're giving for the year, what are you assuming?
Kevin Willis
So far, it's pretty balanced, I would say. And we're continuing with, to try and maintain that throughout the year. And that's our view basically. We think that probably specialty additives are going to likely have more price raws dynamic to it just because there's a lot more volume there than on, say, life sciences and personal care. But that's what we would expect for the balance of the year.
Guillermo Novo
I think in intermediate, obviously, it's been more price, the raw materials we have seen some benefits in natural gas and all that in our costs. But as said before, the market price of BDO obviously impacting our competitors and all that. I think pricing has been a bigger impact for us in intermediates. I think on the other sides, traditionally, if you look at the high inflation time, we increased prices, we didn't increase margins based on pricing. We were able to recover the raw materials. So I think as long as we can maintain that balance, I think we'll be okay. And that's what the businesses are trying to make sure that we do.
Laurence Alexander
And can you flesh out a little bit just how much, when you think about the growth CapEx that has been delayed, if demand does recover, what, how quickly we should expect CapEx to follow?
Guillermo Novo
I think we're looking at the portfolio actions, the HEC, I mean, as we take action on CMC and MC, the bigger volume now is going to be the HEC side. Some of these network adjustments we're doing, we should be in a very good position to be able to grow and support the growth of the business. So we would start implementing different actions as demand picks up. For other areas that we, where we put more of the slowdown in CapEx , Aquaflow was one. That, we have a lot of that goes into the DIY market that continues to be slower. So we're pacing still ourselves there. Benecel is done, the HEC expansion is done. So a lot of the big asset projects are basically done, except for the Aquaflow. Most of the other activities are to support our higher margin, the more asset like type investments.
Those are moving ahead per plan. We just, as I said, finish our biofunctional plant in China. We're converting our plant in Brazil from nutraceuticals to the oral solid dose coatings and biofunctional in Brazil. And we're in the process of buying land in India. We should be closing soon and expanding production capabilities there again for more of these more specialized, lower asset-intensive type businesses. So all of those are going to be growing. And the other plant that we just finished was our injectables plant in Ireland that's also in final stages. So everything else other than Aquaflow, we're pretty much moving on.
Laurence Alexander
And then just lastly on the free cash flow question.
Guillermo Novo
Lawrence, just one, all right, ask your free cash flow question because that's where I was headed.
Laurence Alexander
Well, I was going to take it in a slightly different tangent in terms of the restructuring outlays in 2024 versus 2025. But so however you want to tackle it.
Kevin Willis
For fiscal ‘24, the current outlook would anticipate free cash flow conversion, call it in the 50% or 60% range of adjusted EBITDA so just in support of what Guillermo just said around our CapEx shouldn't be outsized necessarily compared to what we would have otherwise expected. We still expect strong free cash flow conversion this year.
Operator
Our next question comes from John McNulty with BMO.
John McNulty
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So, if I understand it right, you're not building up inventory kind of ahead of the busier season. But it also sounds like you're not really planning on destocking any further. So are you moving pretty much to adjust in time type operation going forward, or is there inventory that you have? And it's not really a fixed cost absorption anymore, but you have enough safety stock to kind of handle that seasonal up draft. I guess how should we be thinking about that?
Guillermo Novo
So the inventory, we carry inventory, we don't just carry -- we don't carry excess inventory. So we're looking now at more of the near term demand. Our safety stocks, we look at safety stocks that we want to hold in different parts of the world. The transportation time, all those things factor into what would be our target inventories to support our ongoing business. And then that's where we're going. What we didn't do is really look like in the past, we would just have looked at much longer outlook and say we'll start producing for six months out for because we just want to build up the inventory to meet long-term demand.
Given that outlook is still muted versus historic, we are not building that inventory at this point in time. So we're really looking at more near term inventories and as orders increase, then we will take appropriate action. That's why to the comments we said before, if in the back end of the year, what moves us towards the upper side of our guidance range, it's not just higher sales, is do we have confidence that the higher sales, higher demand is moving, that we would run our plants a little bit more aggressively.
Right now, we're being much more cautious. I think what you can hear today is, we're more optimistic on the sales, the inflection point, but we are not as, we're not taking the equal actions in our operating side of the equation from a manufacturing perspective. That's where we're probably more conservative at this point in time.
John McNulty
Got it, okay, now that helps. And then from a capital allocation perspective, so over the last, I guess, four quarters or so you've bought back about $100 million worth of stock, not really anything on the M&A front, and for probably various reasons than the markets were kind of closed down for a while. I guess can you speak to how you're looking at 2024 and if you see that pipeline opening up a bit where there may be opportunities, and then also, do you feel like you have the bandwidth to go after those types of opportunities, given all the self-help work that you're doing yourself? So can you help us to think about that?
Guillermo Novo
So in M&A, we haven't stopped, we've been active even in this year. I mean, if the right deal came, we are capable of doing it. Most of these are bolt-ons, so they're not -- they are things that we can do within our financial position and continue to support our organic growth activities. The issue is that we've been disciplined. I mean, even in the downturn, some of the properties that would have been in the spaces that we're looking at, went at very, still very valuations that we didn't believe were appropriate for the returns that we would need to generate from those acquisitions. So it's been more, we've been active, there's been things, but we've just been disciplined, and we will continue to be disciplined. So as we go into ‘24, there are opportunities. We have the targets, we are working them, but at the end of the day, we do have a very strong organic growth potential here.
So that's our number one priority. We want to do the M&A, but we don't have to do it to drive some of our growth objectives. And we're going to be prudent on that. If you look at the M&A, nothing's really changed on the priorities. Pharma and injectables being the number one priority for us. Technologies in personal care that are more natural derived biodegradable and expanding beyond rheology and coating sort of are the big themes. And if you look at our organic growth themes that I covered today, they basically hit those three themes. So we got plenty to do, but we will augment them, but we will stay, maintain the same prudence that we have done in the last two years.
Operator
Next question comes from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.
Michael Sison
Hey, cheers. Nice start to the year. I'm just curious where your network utilization rates are now, and then if you were able to hit the midpoint of your guidance for the second half of the year, where do your utilization rates need to be, and then do you get another 10% to 15% above that as you head into ‘25 because of your portfolio actions?
Guillermo Novo
So let me get some comments, and, Kevin, you might want to comment also based on some of the portfolio action we're doing. But if you look, obviously, the volumes have been down. Headwinds has been absorption is the biggest issue. So utilization rates have been much lower. But if you look at our actions and the specific product lines. So CMC, obviously, we're consolidating. So Alizay will be very well loaded as we finish those actions. And that takes away a lot of the noise in the low end business. Similarly, we're looking at how we optimize our MC businesses. And that's progressing well. HEC, with the network optimization opportunities we have, I do think that one, we can get much better loading. I think, obviously, we're looking to grow that part of the portfolio. So we want to make sure the volume pickup will be very important. And it will normalize more to below, we're below the 80, below the healthy utilization rates in many of our plants.
So they are that network optimization. Aquaflow is at low utilization rates right now. DIY has not recovered as much. And we have a big position in the US and Europe with those technologies. So that one is one that we are moving slower on the capacity and all that because we are underutilized at this point in time. The rest, it's a mix of things. The smaller units, it's not as big of a worry for us. So I would focus on HEC is really the one that as we look into 2025, that we really want to make sure that some of these actions really optimize our loading, but allow us to continue to drive the organic growth for that business, which is we're the market leader in that business. But Kevin, I don't know if you want to have any specific numbers on the portfolio actions.
Kevin Willis
Sure. Yes, and the 10% to 15% increase in utilization rates is only related to CMC, MC and HEC. And the way to think about that is those utilization rates will offset the loss gross profit not just from CMC and MC. There won't be any loss gross profit from HEC, but we'll also offset the loss gross profit from the nutraceuticals business. It's part of why we get the uplift that we get from an EBITDA margin perspective and also from a return on that asset's perspective. I think across the rest of the network, it's a little bit mixed in terms of where we are from a utilization perspective, but we're well-positioned to be able to ramp based on the outlook that we have.
And I'm really not concerned about being able to do that assuming that demand continues to unfold as it has here early in the fiscal year. So feel good about that. And as Guillermo said, as we move into fiscal ‘25, we're going to be pretty well-positioned to take advantage of continued improvement and to the extent that DIY architectural coatings, business improves. We're well-positioned at Alizay because our utilization rates are pretty low right now for Aquaflow, and we are increasing our capacity there and can ramp that project up based on how we see demand unfolding. And again, HEC, we're commissioning the new unit at Hopewell. Now we've been doing that for a while. And as you'll recall, about a year or so ago, we completed the commissioning of our new continuous dryer there, which was a major bottleneck for us in terms of general cellulosic capacity and so that's now off the table which is also good and helpful.
Guillermo Novo
I think, Mike, the other comment I would make on just capacity utilization just to reinforce our innovation and growth. For all these new projects we're basically not making significant capital investments so our transformed vegetables we have capacity already in two of our plants that as this ramp up we have plenty to support growth there. Our super wetters we're making in Calvert City and assets that we're not utilized before so that -- as that ramps up that will be positive. The PH neutralizer we will be making also in Calvert City and another unit that was underutilized. We're making, we're back integrating into some of our preservative raw materials also rather than building a new plant that we were planning to build in Europe. We are leveraging existing assets in Calvert City that we're going to use there. And as I said, with the novel cellulosics that progresses, we can repurpose some of the assets that we're addressing now with CMC and maybe utilize and bring them for more higher value. So on the capital side, I think that's one of the, it's not just the capital dollars, the time wise, we can support some of these growth initiatives much faster than you would normally be able to support it if you're required building new plants.
So I think there's a lot of things, this first step of normalization of demand is the critical step for us and we're not controlling that, that's more the market recovering, market normalizing. And I think we're starting to see that. The rest then is the actions that we take, all these portfolio actions, driving, sticking to our strategy. I think that's why we're making the point of, look, once things stabilize, it's what we do that's going to make a difference. It's not now just recovery, it's the hard work of where we're putting our efforts, our resources and our capabilities to drive growth.
Operator
Our next question comes from John Roberts with Mizuho.
John Roberts
Thank you. On the cellulosic restructuring, if you look gross profit for specialty additives and intermediates were both down 60 percent-ish, the gross margins are actually lower in specialty additives than they are in intermediates. Any thought to merging those two segments or even just pulling the cellulosic plants out of specialty additives, putting them in intermediates and having them sell to the other segments, the same way you sell BDO from the intermediate segment to the other segments.
Guillermo Novo
I think it's a little bit more critical strategic for us to keep it in line with our businesses. I mean, one, what you're seeing in specialty additives is all of the absorption issues of selling of the HEC as an example and CMC are captured in specialty additives. So the land, they're the landlords, so they're getting all the hit. It's not just, I mean, they're the biggest volume in HEC, but in CMC, they're not the biggest volume. But it's in their site. So there's a little bit more of a distortion that some of the products are that are down or are in life science and personal care and we're exiting it. So we'll resolve those issues moving forward. But if you look at HEC with the recovery and all that, I think that is a core business. This is sort of the model that we have on how do we build scale with additives. We have to have one or two applications that give it more scale for manufacturing production and then we're able to sell them out. It's a little bit different than intermediates where it's just BDO that we're making it is a true, true commodity. There are many producers. We are a very small producer. It just gives us back integration. We're the largest a HEC player. So I think there we need to make sure that we're controlling it and driving it per our core business, which is our specialty additives.
John Roberts
And since you're just back from China, we had an extended, I think, Chinese New Year shutdown period last year as the Chinese economy was reopening. What are your thoughts on how this Chinese New Year plays out.
Guillermo Novo
So I think not just the new year, but I think in general, things have slowed down in terms of our plant in China, specifically, HEC, a lot of it is coatings and it stays in China. We don't export much. So, it's still operating well, but the volumes are down. We are well aligned with some of the big players and they've done well in the last year because of just their own share and commercial activities. But in general, the property market and all that, we are seeing a general slowdown in China. Like the big question is going to be not so much the Chinese New Year, it's what actions do we see in support of the real estate, the construction market over the coming months. And there's some indication that that's -- that is something that it's at play at this point in time. But clearly for us, China for 2024 is going to be stable, but it's not going to recover. We're not expecting it to just recover very quickly at this point in time.
Operator
Thank you. That concludes the question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Guillermo Nova for closing remarks.
Guillermo Novo
Okay. Thank you, Abigail. And thank you, everyone, for your questions and participation. And we look forward to engaging all of you in the coming weeks and get into more discussions. But I hope as the big takeaways, one, that we are seeing some improvement in the overall market dynamics.
Number one, two, that we're focused on our strategy and our actions. And we're going to continue to drive them as we move forward and that we, there's a great future ahead in a lot of these new technologies and for Ashland. So thank you very much for your time and look forward to talking to you soon.
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
- Read more current ASH analysis and news
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666489-ashland-inc-ash-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:10:54Z
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Mimaki Europe has appointed Takao Terashima as its new managing director.
Takao began his career at the manufacturer of inkjet printers and cutting technologies in 1997 in its research and development department. Over the past 26 years, he has been in various senior roles in the company, and since 2017 he has been working as the senior general manager of the Asia Oceania Business Unit.
“Terashima’s career path has led him to work beyond Mimaki’s headquarters in Japan, in positions across Mimaki’s branches,” stated the company.
“He spent four years as managing director of Mimaki Singapore between 2013 and 2017, and he also worked at Mimaki USA early in his career as part of the technical support staff.”
Succeeding Takahiro Hiraki as managing director of Mimaki Europe, Takao will bring his “industry expertise, analytical thinking, business and team-building skills, as well as his extensive company knowledge, to this new role”, it added.
Terashima commented: “I am delighted to take on the role of managing director of Mimaki Europe in what is a landmark year for the branch. Celebrating the 20th anniversary of the European headquarters, we can look back on the past two decades proudly, thanks to the ongoing hard-work and effort of the team.
“Looking to the future, it is key to ensure our principles of innovation, collaboration, and sustainability continue to drive us to provide excellence for our customers. Being part of this company and the print industry for over 25 years, I am committed to taking Mimaki into the next 20 years of success.”
Mimaki is exclusively distributed in the UK and Ireland by Hybrid Services.
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https://www.images-magazine.com/changing-faces-takao-terashima/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:52Z
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WATERBURY – Angela Rinaldi, age 91, of Waterbury, passed away peacefully Jan. 30, 2024, at Abbott Terrace Health Care Center in Waterbury. She was the widow of Libero Rinaldi.
Angela was born Feb. 23, 1932 in Gimigliano, Catanzaro, Italy, a daughter of the late Gennaro and Maria Felicia (Merante) Minervino, and came to the United States in 1947. Before her retirement, Angela had worked as a press operator at Mattatuck Manufacturing.
She loved to cook, was an avid gardener who loved spending time with her neighbors and canning vegetables, but found her greatest joy being with and spending time with her family, especially her grandchildren. She will be greatly missed by those who were blessed to know and love her.
She leaves her sons, Louis Rinaldi and his wife Rhonda of Wolcott, Ronald Rinaldi and his wife Marlene of Wolcott; seven grandchildren; nine great-grandchildren; a daughter-in-law Cindy Rinaldi of Vernon; and a brother-in-law Ralph Peters of Windsor Locks.
She was predeceased by a son Joseph Rinaldi, and a sister Maria Peters.
Angela’s family would like to thank the staff at Abbott Terrace for the care, kindness and compassion extended to Angela and her family during her stay.
Funeral services for Angela will be on Monday, Feb. 5, 2024, at 11 a.m. at Chase Parkway Memorial/Albini Family Funeral Home, 430 Chase Parkway, Waterbury. Burial will follow at Calvary Cemetery. Calling hours Monday morning from 9 to 11 a.m. at the funeral home.
For more info or to send e-condolences, visit chaseparkwaymemorial.com.
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https://www.rep-am.com/obituaries/2024/01/31/angela-rinaldi/
| 2024-01-31T23:10:55Z
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Edgewater shooting: 3 wounded on Chicago's North Side
CHICAGO - Three people were shot Wednesday afternoon on Chicago's North Side.
The incident occurred in the 1200 block of W. Thorndale Avenue, which is located in the city's Edgewater neighborhood.
According to the fire department, two victims were taken to St. Francis Hospital in critical condition. The third was transported to Illinois Masonic in serious condition.
Senn High School is located nearby on Glenwood Avenue.
Nobody was reported in custody. The investigation is ongoing.
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https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/edgewater-shooting-3-wounded-on-chicagos-north-side
| 2024-01-31T23:10:58Z
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PHOENIX — Multiple Republican lawmakers and State Superintendent Tom Horne want to see content creation organization, PragerU, in Arizona classrooms.
On Wednesday, Horne announced a partnership with PragerU, promising to put its videos and informational content on the state’s education website, as well as urging schools to adopt it as a part of their curriculum.
“Prager materials are rich in content and have a commitment to presenting facts to students to better understand history,” Horne said.
The organization is not an accredited higher education institution and is a self-described “free alternative to the dominant left-wing ideology in culture, media, and education.”
PragerU CEO Marissa Streit said the organization does have a specific lens in which it presents content.
“We do have an ideological viewpoint and that is a patriotic, wholesome viewpoint,” Streit said. “We don’t support a political agenda. We support an ideological agenda.”
Horne’s endorsement has drawn criticism from other lawmakers and educational advocacy groups who accuse the video makers of pushing a specific political ideology.
“PragerU does not belong in Arizona schools,” Representative Raúl M. Grijalva D-07 said in part. “It’s masquerading as a serious educational resource when in reality it’s unaccredited right-wing propaganda. Additionally, there are serious concerns regarding PragerU’s funding, which includes money routed from conservative billionaire donors, the oil and gas industry, and foreign interests. I share parent’s outrage that these entities would be permitted to push their agenda on our children through the guise of education.”
A group of parents and other PragerU supporters showed up outside the state Capitol building to cheer on the new partnership.
“I think that options are always good,” parent Cheryl Rosado said. “Parents need to know their options.”
Arizona Education Association President Marisol Garcia was disappointed to learn about the partnership.
“I’ve not heard from one teacher who wants this in their classroom and I taught civics and American history for 15 years,” Garcia said.
Garcia said she wants Horne to instead focus on more critical needs like teacher retention and growing class sizes.
“This is the complete opposite of why we have the common good with public education. We don’t need politicians involved in instruction,” Garcia said.
In a statement released Wednesday, Garcia also said "PragerU’s hyper-partisan and substandard materials have no place in our schools, and educators know that, as do the local school board members who make decisions about curricula. Superintendent Horne’s announcement won’t change much for Arizona’s students and teachers. But it will generate a round of headlines for him–which was, of course, the entire point."
Horne told reporters, “In some classrooms, only the extreme left side has been presented and so these [videos] present an alternative.”
Save Our Schools Arizona Director Beth Lewis disagrees and calls the PragerU content “dangerous.”
“I’m in classrooms all over the state. I see what educators are teaching,” Lewis said. “The things they’re being accused of are not happening. They’re teaching accurate, truthful science and history.”
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https://www.abc15.com/news/local-news/az-superintendent-pushes-for-prageru-in-schools-draws-criticism-from-some
| 2024-01-31T23:10:58Z
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Dead fin whale on Firth of Forth beach to be left to decompose
and live on Freeview channel 276
The whale carcass will be left in its current location to naturally decompose. This will enrich the coastal environment with nutrients and provide an important food source for wildlife during the winter period.
The dead and decomposing 17 metre long Fin whale was washed ashore on the evening of January 24.
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Hide AdRobbie Blyth, head of operations at Fife Coast and Countryside Trust (FCCT), who coordinate cetacean strandings on the Fife coast, explained: “When possible, biologists and veterinarians from the Scottish Marine Animal Stranding Scheme examine a carcass and conduct a necropsy to try to learn why the mammal may have died. On this occasion the whale had already started to putrefy and was not suitable for investigation.
“This is one of the reasons we have decided not to recover the carcass. Also, its location – at the foot of the railway embankment coastal defences – would have presented a challenge in recovering it. The location is relatively inaccessible to beach users and dog walkers and we believe that leaving it in situ causes the least disruption to locals and visitors.
“The decision not to recover the carcass has been made after full consultation with key stakeholders and partners including Fife Council, community representatives, Network Rail, Forth Ports, Forth Estuary Forum, NatureScot, SEPA, and Marine Scotland.”
The carcass will be monitored by FCCT wardens. Members of the public are advised not to access the shoreline.
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https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/dead-fin-whale-on-firth-of-forth-beach-to-be-left-to-decompose-4500322
| 2024-01-31T23:10:58Z
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Investment Thesis
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) is capitalizing on the ongoing global shift towards card-based and electronic payments. I believe the company's business model is robust, underpinned by its consistent revenue streams, solid margins, and substantial cash flow. The migration of shopping to online from physical stores is a key driver for electronic payments that has rapidly accelerated due to COVID-19, and the company's revenue and earnings have continued to grow after a temporary setback during the pandemic in 2020. I see V as a good defensive stock to have in the portfolio, and I assign a buy rating to the stock.
Post Q1 Earnings Outlook: Resilient Consumer Amid Weak Macro
In the first quarter of its 2024 fiscal year, Visa reported a slight deceleration in revenue and payment volume growth. Visa's payments volume increased by 8.4% year-on-year, a small step down from the 8.8% reported in the prior quarter, mainly driven by a further deceleration in the US. Although this appears mainly linked to the recent trends in consumer spending and inflation, the growth opportunities in US card payments are gradually narrowing. The US Federal Reserve introduced new rules for processing debit card transactions in the summer of 2023, giving merchants the option to process debit transactions over at least one additional network not affiliated with either Visa or Mastercard. This is intended to increase competition in the US debit card market, but Visa's management highlighted that it has, so far, not seen any meaningful shift in volumes being routed away from its network. However, there is still substantial room for growth in Europe, where cash use remains quite high. Moreover, the firm has launched a plethora of initiatives to capitalize on the digitalization of payments in emerging markets and to capture payment flows other than traditional consumer-to-merchant card transactions.
Visa's expansion into new areas is partly reflected in fast-rising personnel expenses, which have more than doubled since 2018 and have outpaced revenue growth. This, however, is not translating into margin pressure because of the combination of the firm's scale and the low marginal non-personnel costs of processing payments. In the quarter, the operating margin increased by 70 bps to 69.1%. As the business model also has very modest capital expenditure requirements, the firm continues to generate significant free cash flows. These are largely used for share buybacks and dividends, as well as frequent bolt-on acquisitions, such as Pismo and Prosa. Visa appears positioned for a healthy fiscal 2024, fueled by momentum in new flows monetization and services revenue growth. Top-line gains could see a slower start to the year and then accelerate, with a potential 6-8% expansion in nominal terms in 2Q.
Traditional Consumer Payments Have Room to Grow
Visa's primary focus is on the digitalization of consumer payments, which remains a substantial and expanding market. Visa has several competitive advantages in this space, including the increase in digital spending compared to physical retail, where Visa can earn 43 cents for every $1 spent, as opposed to 15 cents for physical transactions. Additionally, the rise of next-generation financial institutions like neobanks and fintech companies, cost-effective alternatives to traditional payment terminals for digital transactions, and global government initiatives to promote digital payments all contribute to Visa's edge.
The value of payments still transacted with cash and checks represents a big opportunity for Visa, and it's converting that in three ways: expanding Visa credentials (cards and tokens), adding acceptance points (quadrupled seller base in the last decade to 100 million sellers) and improving engagement (increasing usage via tap- and click-to-pay).
I believe Visa is poised to achieve high-single-digit growth in its core consumer payments segment in the near future, despite facing increasing competition from UnionPay, which holds a dominant position in global card network volumes with an approximate 75% market share in Asia. This segment, which accounts for about two-thirds of Visa's revenue, benefits from several positive trends, including cross-border spending, the ongoing shift from cash to digital payments, the digitization of business-to-business transactions, and the growing adoption of e-commerce.
Financial Outlook & Valuation
The dollar volume of payments made with cards and other digital methods is the main driver of Visa's growth, and it relies on the secular shift from cash and checks and more cyclical consumer spending. I believe the total payment volume could expand at a high-single-digit rate through 2024. Going forward, growth should taper from the abnormal levels of 2022 yet hold up against a weakening economy, as Visa targets new flows and the post-pandemic travel recovery extends, especially in Asia.
Despite the recent stock outperformance, I view Visa's valuation as reasonable both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P. V trades at a 27% premium to the S&P on NTM earnings, below where it was trading before Covid. I believe that the fundamentals continue to be healthy, and spending growth has stabilized after slowing down earlier in 2023. Global travel continues to recover, including inbound to the US and outbound from China, though I expect less catch-up going forward. In an economic slowdown or recession, I view V as a good defensive stock and would expect it to outperform. I am optimistic about the company and assign a buy rating to the stock.
Risks to Rating
There are several risks associated with investing in Visa including adverse impacts from the implementation of interchange and/or network routing regulation, including market share loss and increased pricing pressure. Additionally, unexpected regulatory changes in payment processing, particularly in international markets, could create unforeseen challenges for Visa. Moreover, the rise of alternative payment processing methods or local domestic schemes, enforced by local regulatory authorities, could intensify competition in the industry which may lead to market share loss and a downside in Visa's stock price.
Conclusion
I believe Visa's exposure to both cross-border travel and the expanding e-commerce sector may help mitigate the adverse impact of inflation on consumer spending. The company's significant debit card portfolio, with market-share gains in new flows, including business and value-added services, can help fend off risks from a challenging economy. The company's business model is robust, and I am optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential, driven by both double-digit revenue growth facilitated by increased penetration of personal consumption expenditures and the expansion of value-added services thanks to the company's scale. I assign a buy rating to the stock.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666490-visa-resilient-business-at-a-good-price?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:11:00Z
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KENSINGTON – Edward F. Grickis, 81, of Kensington, passed away Monday, Jan. 29, 2024, at his home.
Born in Waterbury, son of the late John and Margaret (Dillon) Grickis, he was a graduate of Naugatuck High School, class of 1960. Ed served with the U.S. Navy during the Vietnam War and lived in Kensington since 1963.
He was a custodian at First Church of Christ, Congregational, in New Britain for 20 years, retiring in 2017. Ed also had various other positions throughout Connecticut.
Surviving is a son, Mark Grickis of Prospect; two daughters, Dana Marie Grickis of Waterbury, and Karin Townsend and her fiance Joseph Carusello, of Litchfield; two brothers, James Grickis and his wife Linda, of Wethersfield, and Terrance Grickis of Milford and his predeceased wife Julie; a sister, Joann O’Neil and her husband Daniel, of Florida; three grandchildren, Jordan and Alyssa Townsend, and Dylan Flaherty; several nieces and nephews.
Ed was predeceased by his longtime companion of more than 30 years, Marietta (Gatti) Guidone; his son-in-law, Raymond Townsend; two brothers, John Grickis and his wife Vern, and William Grickis; and a sister, Antoinette Beebe and her husband Charles.
A memorial service will be Monday, Feb. 5, 2024, 11 a.m. at First Church of Christ, Congregational, 830 Corbin Ave., New Britain. Calling hours are Monday morning from 10 to 11 a.m. at the church. Burial will be at the convenience of the family.
In lieu of flowers, memorial donations may be made to the West Haven Veterans Medical Center, 950 Campbell Ave., West Haven, CT 06516; or to the Newington VA Medical Center, 555 Willard Ave., Newington, CT 06111.
Carlson Funeral Home, New Britain, is assisting with arrangements. Please share a memory or note of sympathy at carlsonfuneralhome.com.
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https://www.rep-am.com/obituaries/2024/01/31/edward-f-grickis/
| 2024-01-31T23:11:01Z
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Stedman has launched Lux Polo shirts for the new year. Available for both men and women, the polos come in six ‘promotional’ colours and are made from a “high-quality, soft, and durable single piqué”, the manufacturer reported.
“Whether on the tennis court, in the office, or during a casual weekend outing, the Lux Polo seamlessly adapts to your lifestyle. The rib collar and rib cuffs add a touch of refinement to the design, elevating this polo shirt to a must-have wardrobe staple.”
The new styles are available in sizes S-5XL for men and XS-3XL for women.
In addition, Stedman has added a new colour, natural, to its Classic-T T-shirts for men, women and children, while the Classic-T for children has also had slate grey, Bordeaux and bottle green added to its colour roster.
“The choice of natural as a new colour is a strategic move, as it resonates with the growing trend toward nature-inspired fashion,” explained the brand.
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https://www.images-magazine.com/new-polos-from-stedman-for-2024/
| 2024-01-31T23:11:00Z
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PHOENIX — Attention shoppers: Aldi is holding a grand opening celebration for its 12th Valley grocery store on Thursday.
Festivities at the new supermarket at 4555 E. Cactus Road in Phoenix, between Paradise Village Parkway and Tatum Boulevard, start with a ribbon-cutting event at 8:30 a.m., 30 minutes before doors open for the first time.
The first 100 customers will receive Aldi “Golden Ticket” gift cards worth $10, $25 or $100. Employees also will be handing out free shopping totes while supplies last.
In addition, shoppers who check out the new store from Thursday to Sunday can enter a sweepstakes for a chance to win a $500 gift card.
For more on this store's opening from our partners at KTAR, click here.
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https://www.abc15.com/news/local-news/heres-what-we-know-about-the-grand-opening-of-aldis-12th-metro-phoenix-supermarket
| 2024-01-31T23:11:04Z
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Ripken Jr., Hill part of investment team that has agreed to buy Orioles
Cal Ripken Jr. and Grant Hill are part of the investor group that has agreed to buy the Baltimore Orioles, and so are former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Baltimore Mayor Kurt Schmoke.
The group is headed by Baltimore native David Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group. Additional investors were revealed in a news release Wednesday announcing the agreement between Rubenstein and the Angelos family.
“I am excited to once again be a part of the Orioles organization and I thank David for including me in the ownership group," Ripken said in a statement. “The Orioles have been a part of my life since I was a child, and this is a special day.”
The Angelos family has run the team for the past three decades and is selling a control stake in the team to Rubenstein for $1.725 billion.
“I am grateful to the Angelos family for the opportunity to join the team I have been a fan of my entire life. I look forward to working with all the Orioles owners, players and staff to build upon the incredible success the team has achieved in recent seasons," Rubenstein said. "Our collective goal will be to bring a World Series trophy back to the city of Baltimore. To the fans I say: We do it for you and can’t do it without you.”
John Angelos, the club's current chairman, will remain as a senior adviser.
“I am personally committed to helping David and his partners take the franchise to the next level,” Angelos said. “We think this transaction is great for Major League Baseball and great for the city of Baltimore and Maryland. We are thankful to the fans and supporters cheering on the O’s as we reached this important goal — and who will be with us celebrating more success to come.”
Rubenstein's investment team includes Ripken and Hill, who in addition to being Hall of Famers in baseball and basketball have ties to the extended area. Ripken, of course, is an Orioles legend who was born in Havre de Grace, Maryland. Hill is from northern Virginia, not far from Washington.
Other members of the investment group include Bloomberg, Schmoke, Ares Management co-founder Michael Arougheti, Ares Credit Group co-heads Mitchell Goldstein and Michael Smith, and Cognosante founder Michele Kang, who also owns the Washington Spirit of the NWSL.
The sale is subject to a full vote of Major League Baseball ownership and must receive 75% approval.
The Angelos family has been in control of the Orioles since 1993, when Peter Angelos purchased the team for $173 million. Angelos’ son John is the team’s current chairman, and the Orioles recently reached a deal on a new lease extension at Camden Yards.
“Governor Moore, the Maryland Stadium Authority, and the entire Moore-Miller Administration send their congratulations to Baltimore native David Rubenstein, Michael Bloomberg, Kurt Schmoke, Mike Arougheti, NBA legend Grant Hill, and Maryland native and Orioles legend Cal Ripken Jr. on their deal to purchase the Baltimore Orioles. The governor looks forward to continuing the strong relationship between the State of Maryland and the Baltimore Orioles,” said Carter Elliott, a spokesman for Maryland Gov. Wes Moore.
“Governor Moore would like to thank the Angelos family for their contributions to the Orioles community and this storied franchise. Keeping the Orioles in Baltimore for the long term was a key priority for this administration and we are proud that this transaction won’t change that.”
The Angelos family will keep a significant investment in the team.
“When I took on the role of chair and CEO of the Orioles, we had the objective of restoring the franchise to elite status in major league sports, keeping the team in Baltimore for years to come, and revitalizing our partnership group," John Angelos said. "This relationship with David Rubenstein and his partners validates that we have not only met but exceeded our goals.”
The Orioles won 101 games last season, their most since 1979, and their future is bright thanks to young stars Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson — as well as a farm system that has remained loaded even as top prospects moved on to the big leagues.
The team's low payroll has been a sore spot with fans, but this sale offers hope that the Orioles might spend aggressively enough to make the most of the impressive foundation of talent they've built in recent years.
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AP MLB: https://apnews.com/MLB
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https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/cal-ripken-jr-grant-hill-part-of-investment-team-that-has-agreed-to-buy-baltimore-orioles-1.2070050
| 2024-01-31T23:11:04Z
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Islamic Resistance in Iraq group is to blame for Jordan drone strike that killed 3 soldiers, US says
JERUSALEM - The United States on Wednesday attributed the drone attack that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias, as President Joe Biden weighs his response options to the strike.
The attribution comes as Iran threatened on Wednesday to "decisively respond" to any U.S. attack on the Islamic Republic after the U.S. said it holds Tehran responsible. The U.S. has signaled it is preparing for retaliatory strikes in the Mideast in the wake of the Sunday drone attack that also wounded at least 40 troops at Tower 22, a secretive base in northeastern Jordan that’s been crucial to the American presence in neighboring Syria.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday the U.S. believes the attack was planned, resourced and facilitated by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group that includes the militant group Kataib Hezbollah. He said Biden "believes that it is important to respond in an appropriate way."
Kirby said Biden was continuing to weigh retaliation options to the attack but said "the first thing you see won’t be the last thing," adding it "won't be a one-off."
RELATED: Jordan drone attack: 3 Georgia soldiers killed in Tower 22 strike
Kirby dismissed a statement by Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah announcing "the suspension of military and security operations against the occupation forces in order to prevent embarrassment to the Iraqi government." He said that the group can't be taken at face value, and he added, "they’re not the only group that has been attacking us."
Biden, meanwhile, is set to attend the somber return of the fallen troops to U.S. soil on Friday at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, known as a dignified transfer, the White House announced.
Any additional American strikes could further inflame a region already roiled by Israel’s ongoing war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The war began with Hamas attacking Israel on Oct. 7, killing some 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostage. Since then, Israeli strikes have killed more than 26,000 Palestinians and displaced nearly 2 million others from their homes, arousing anger throughout the Muslim world.
RELATED: 3 American troops killed, 25 injured in attack on Jordan base near Syria border
Violence has erupted across the Mideast, with Iran striking targets in Iraq, Pakistan and Syria, and the U.S. carrying out airstrikes targeting Yemen's Houthi rebels over their attacks shipping in the Red Sea. Some observers fear a new round of strikes targeting Iran could tip the region into a wider war.
A U.S. Navy destroyer in the waterway shot down an anti-ship cruise missile launched by the Houthis late Tuesday, the latest attack targeting American forces patrolling the key maritime trade route, officials said. The U.S. later launched a new round of airstrikes targeting the Houthis.
The Iranian warnings first came from Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations in New York. He gave a briefing to Iranian journalists late Tuesday, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.
"The Islamic Republic would decisively respond to any attack on the county, its interests and nationals under any pretexts," IRNA quoted Iravani as saying. He described any possible Iranian retaliation as a "strong response," without elaborating.
The Iranian mission to the U.N. did not respond to requests for comment or elaboration Wednesday on Iravani's remarks.
Iravani also denied that Iran and the U.S. had exchanged any messages over the last few days, either through intermediaries or directly. The pan-Arab satellite channel Al Jazeera, which is based in and funded by Qatar, reported earlier that such communication had taken place. Qatar often serves as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran.
"Such messages have not been exchanged," Iravani said.
But Iran's government has taken note of the U.S. threats of retaliation for the attack on the base in Jordan.
"Sometime, our enemies raise the threat, and nowadays we hear some threats in between words by American officials," Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami, who answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said at an event Wednesday. "We tell them that you have experienced us, and we know each other. We do not leave any threat without an answer."
"We are not after war, but we have no fear of war," he added, according to IRNA.
Kirby, for his part, said the U.S. doesn’t "seek a war with Iran. We’re not looking for a broader conflict."
On Saturday, a general in charge of Iran's air defenses described them as being at their "highest defensive readiness." That raises concerns for commercial aviation traveling through and over Iran as well. After a U.S. drone strike killed a top general in 2020, Iranian air defenses mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board.
Meanwhile, attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels continue in the Red Sea, most recently targeting a U.S. warship. The missile launched Tuesday night targeted the USS Gravely, an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer, the U.S. military’s Central Command said in a statement. No injuries or damage were reported.
A Houthi military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree, claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement Wednesday morning, calling it "a victory for the oppression of the Palestinian people and a response to the American-British aggression against our country."
Saree claimed the Houthis fired "several" missiles, something not acknowledged by the U.S. Navy. Houthi claims have been exaggerated in the past, and their missiles sometimes crash on land and fail to reach their targets.
The Houthis claimed without evidence on Monday to have targeted the USS Lewis B. Puller, a floating landing base used by the Navy SEALs and others. The U.S. said there had been no attack.
On Wednesday, a U.S. military jet struck a surface-to-air missile that was about to launch from Houthi-controlled Yemen, a U.S. official said. The missile was deemed an immediate threat and destroyed. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details ahead of a public announcement.
Since November, the rebels have repeatedly targeted ships in the Red Sea over Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza. But they have frequently targeted vessels with tenuous or no clear links to Israel, imperiling shipping in a key route for global trade between Asia, the Mideast and Europe.
The Houthis hit a commercial vessel with a missile on Friday, sparking a fire that burned for hours.
The U.S. and the United Kingdom have launched multiple rounds of airstrikes targeting the Houthis as allied warships patrol the waterways affected by the attacks. The European Union also plans to launch a naval mission in the Red Sea within three weeks to help defend cargo ships against the Houthi attacks, the bloc’s top diplomat said Wednesday.
Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, and Tara Copp in Washington contributed to this report.
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https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/iran-threatens-respond-us-strikes-jordan-attack
| 2024-01-31T23:11:04Z
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40 Authentic Soul Food Recipes to Honor and Celebrate Black History Month
Jocelyn Delk Adams
Originally Published: January 31, 2024 2:13 p.m.
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https://www.verdenews.com/news/2024/jan/31/40-authentic-soul-food-recipes-to-honor-and-celebr/
| 2024-01-31T23:11:05Z
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Falkirk Council agree to close Bo'ness Recreation Centre within three months
and live on Freeview channel 276
The final decision was made at a meeting of Falkirk Council today (Wednesday) when SNP and Conservative councillors narrowly won a vote to close the centre and look instead at ways to expand facilities into Bo’ness Academy.
Bo’ness Labour councillor David Aitchison and Independent Ann Ritchie hoped their proposal to keep the centre open and make phased repairs would win support.
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Hide AdTheir amendment, however, was defeated by 15 votes to 13 as councillors were persuaded that spending millions to keep the centre open at a time of financial crisis for the council was not an option.
A large group of campaigners gathered with placards outside before the start of the meeting then watched the four-hour long debate from the public gallery.
The meeting opened with a deputation from an independent chartered surveyor who had reviewed the report being used by Falkirk Council to justify the closure.
The council-commissioned report had revealed serious defects that would mean a repair bill of more than £4 million and the building being shut for many months to make it safe.
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Hide AdBut surveyor Mr Fitzpatrick said that while the building definitely needs repairs and maintenance there were no major defects identified that could not be repaired.
Senior council officers, however, defended the report by Currie & Brown, saying it “was not and was never intended to be a delapidation survey”.
Community activists Robert Stuart and Dorothy Ostacchini then addressed the meeting on behalf of the Save the Rec campaign.
Mr Stuart highlighted the number of new houses being built in Bo’ness, the council tax that will bring in and the lack of facilities people moving to the area will find.
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Hide AdHe also said they need concrete information about what will replace the rec centre.
“I think the people of Bo’ness deserve to know exactly what sport and leisure facilities will be available to them, exactly what the access times will be and how access will be controlled.
“As council tax payers, I think that is the least we are owed.”
Mrs Ostacchini criticised the “gross underfunding” of the Rec over many years and said that BRC is being used as a “cash cow” to fund community asset transfers now taking place.
Director of Place, Malcolm Bennie strongly denied this.
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Hide AdHe said: “This is not true. If you took any of the major buildings out of it it would have a negative impact on the SPR enabling funds.
“Bo’ness is being treated the same as all wards.”
He also said a claim that the site would be sold and the capital receipt put towards the building of the new Falkirk Town Hall was “completely false”.
Ms Ostacchini added that the closure of the Rec would also the end of the councils’ rehabilitation programme, Active Forth, while pensioners were likely to be excluded if facilities were not open during the day.
But those who backed the report said that plans to invest £3 million into schools in a bid to improve community access would offer much better value.
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Hide AdThe SNP group asked officers to bring forward a report as soon as possible looking at how to increase access to schools for the community.
The SNP councillor for Bo’ness, Stacey Devine, said she was voting for the proposal with a “heavy heart” as she acknowledged the “passion, emotion and anger” around the issue.
“The report in full, including the condition survey, casts a dark shadow over hopes to save the centre and is a really stark reminder that we as a council need to take earlier decisions to improve and invest in facilities.”
She added that they have a “duty of care to protect the public”.
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Hide Ad“I believe the better plan is to invest in the academy rather than trying to breathe life into a facility that clearly isn’t delivering value and is costing over a million pounds in taxpayers’ money every year,” she said.
But there was no doubting the anger and disappointment from the campaigners attending who have campaigned hard to keep the centre open and say they will continue to fight for it.
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https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/news/politics/council/falkirk-council-agree-to-close-boness-recreation-centre-within-three-months-4500527
| 2024-01-31T23:11:05Z
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National media outlets make their picks for Sunday's game between the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks at Bank of America Stadium. For a complete list of sources, scroll to the bottom of the page.
Picks are tabulated using consensus among media outlet's staff* **
SOURCES: NFL.com, ESPN, SI.com, SB Nation, Sporting News, USA Today, Fox Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED
View the top photos by team photographer Melissa Melvin-Rodriguez from Carolina's game against Seattle.
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https://www.panthers.com/news/pickin-it-nfc-divisional-playoff-16703107
| 2024-01-31T23:11:05Z
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HBO has traditionally allowed the mercurial Larry David to decide whether or not there would be more seasons of Curb Your Enthusiasm, but to Variety, he now says this is it.
At Tuesday night's Los Angeles red carpet premiere for the forthcoming 12th and final season, David acknowledged to the trade that he's said the show was over many times before.
"Yeah, I said it before. But I wasn't 76 when I said it," he noted.
The Seinfeld co-creator also expressed of the Emmy-winning show, "It's time. Twelve years, that's a lot for a television show -- over 24 years. It was time."
The series, which began in 1999 as a one-off mockumentary about David's alleged return to stand-up comedy, launched as a series in 2000.
HBO had always given David a wide berth to return for subsequent seasons at his leisure. For instance, there was a six-year gap between seasons eight and nine.
During its run, the show racked up 51 Emmy nominations with two wins, including an Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy in 2002.
Curb Your Enthusiasm's 12th season kicks off on Sunday at 10 p.m. ET/PT on HBO and Max.
New episodes will debut subsequent Sundays at the same time, leading up to the series finale on April 7.
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
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https://www.wduv.com/entertainment/its-time-larry-david/VUYGNEKLMVKCRFOU4BHSRW4CUA/
| 2024-01-31T23:11:05Z
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Fortive Corp (NYSE:FTV) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call January 31, 2024 12:00 PM ET
Company Participants
Elena Rosman - Vice President of Investor Relations
James Lico - President & Chief Executive Officer
Charles McLaughlin - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Steve Tusa - JPMorgan
Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research
Julian Mitchell - Barclays
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research
Deane Dray - RBC Capital Markets
Andy Kaplowitz - Citigroup
Scott Davis - Melius Research
Robert Mason - Baird
Andrew Obin - Bank of America
Joseph Giordano - TD Cowen
Joseph O'Dea - Wells Fargo
Operator
My name is Kristina and I will be your conference facilitator this afternoon. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Fortive Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Elena Rosman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Rosman, you may begin your conference.
Elena Rosman
Thank you, Kristina and thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call. With us today are Jim Lico, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck McLaughlin, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We represent certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. Information required by Regulation G are available on the Investors section of our website at fortive.com. Our statements on period-to-period increases or decreases refer to the year-over-year comparisons unless otherwise specified.
During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, including statements regarding events or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and the actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make here today. Information regarding these risk factors is available in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 [ph]. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim Lico.
James Lico
Thanks, Elena. Hello, everyone and thank you for joining us. I'll begin on Slide 3. Fortive delivered outstanding operating performance again in 2023 through our proven formula for value creation. Our transformed portfolio of businesses delivering consistent through-cycle performance reflecting a more durable company with mid-single-digit core growth in 2023 despite a mixed macro environment. Strong execution by our teams drove another year of record margins with adjusted gross margins now approaching 60% and adjusted operating margins nearing 26%.
Throughout 2023, we focused on unleashing the full power of FBS, reflected by record participation in KAIZEN events, including our largest ever CEO KAIZEN week. The results of these KAIZEN's were tremendous, including an average of 50% productivity and 50% lead time conversion improvements. Our industry-leading free cash flow generation funded accretive capital deployment, including our best year executing on bolt-on acquisitions, accelerating our growth strategy across all 3 of our segments. We also opportunistically bought back shares and increased our dividend, enhancing shareholder returns. In summary, we remain committed to our strategy and its success is evident given the consistency of our results which I'll highlight on Slide 4.
We built Fortive to drive growth, drive progress and drive value. Reflecting on our evolution, we made significant steps again in 2023 towards our vision of a premier company. This includes 5% core growth and 160 basis points adjusted operating margin expansion. The benefits of our portfolio transformation are reflected in our progress to date, averaging rule of 35 [ph] performance over the last 5 years. FBS is driving commercial success as we expand into new growth markets, speed innovation cycles and maximize investment returns across our 3 operating segments. For example, in 2023, we saw a 33% increase in our revenue attainment on new product launches. Many of these new products are contributing to the approximately 60% of our revenues that positively impact climate, health and safety concerns and aligned to the U.S. sustainable development goals.
Our operating companies are seeing a greater than 20% acceleration in software development time through the use of Gen AI, improving our ability to deliver more value to customers. Our culture of innovation, learning and continuous improvement is contributing to gains in our industry-leading employee engagement scores, a critical component of our sustained success. Lastly, our acquisition performance contributed to our record free cash flow in the year, underpinned by industry-leading net working capital performance and accelerated returns on invested capital.
On Slide 5, you see how our portfolio is strategically positioned to increasingly benefit from secular growth trends. Every day, we are helping our customers harness the power of emerging automation and digitization technologies streamline crucial workflows and embrace the energy transition. Some highlights in the fourth quarter include: in IOS, Fluke's new family of Multi-product Calibrators are providing the broadest workload coverage across some of the fastest-growing markets. Recent bolt-on in RedEye is helping to transform customers' digital experience with a modern centralized hub for engineering document management, solidifying our Accruent's leading position in that market. In PT, Tektronix is harnessing the power of open source software with the first release of its Python Native Drivers to help our customers automate their instruments and accelerate their testing types. Together with EA which closed in early January, Tektronix is expanding its addressable market, adding complementary performance solutions to their best-in-class electronic test and measurement suite serving the fastest-growing areas of the power market.
In AHS, Landauer is helping customers reduce energy usage, waste and carbon emissions with their new Digital Dosimetry Solution. And ASP launched their new sterilization monitoring products in North America and Asia helping customers achieve greater efficiency and assurance as they work to keep up with rising clinical demand.
Turning to Slide 6 and a spotlight on M&A performance; our two most recent large deals provide an excellent example of the Fortive flywheel for value creation and action. In 2021, we accelerated our segment strategies with the acquisitions of ServiceChannel and proVation information. These two world-class software offerings are creating compelling value for our customers. And Fortive, having fully embraced the power of FBS to drive double-digit ARR growth and significant margin expansion.
For example, ServiceChannel exited 2023 with adjusted operating margins in the mid-20s up from breakeven when it was acquired. And proVation delivered 112% net dollar retention in its GI solutions, up approximately 8 points Censis acquisition. The execution of our disciplined acquisition strategy strengthened by the value FBS creates and is a critical component of how we achieve sustained results over time. You see that reflected in their industry-leading net dollar retention as our innovation and customer centricity tools are helping them retain and grow their existing base.
Turning to Slide 7; our ability to deliver differentiated results enable our world-class business system. Across Fortive, we leveraged FBS to better understand our customers, accelerate innovation, expand market share profitably, improve operations and forge the leadership skills we need for the future. One of the best things about FBS is that we never stop improving it. As our portfolio evolves, we are expanding the tool set and capabilities that allow us to set and deliver on high expectations, as you just saw in the ServiceChannel and proVation examples.
In 2023 [indiscernible], our center of excellence for software data and AI expanded its capabilities to further support digital transformation and drive innovation, next-gen products and productivity across Fortive. Core to our success is how our leaders immerse, teach and lead from the front with FBS. Together, they make KAIZEN the way of life for our 18,000 team members reinforcing our strong culture of inclusion or everyone's contribution matters. Looking at the chart on the right, what is unique and differentiated about Fortive, the breadth of results that are compounding over time.
Since 2019, we have sustained our target of mid-single-digit through cycle core growth. We have delivered outstanding margin expansion above our annual commitments. We have converted more revenue to income growing adjusted EPS at 14% compounded rate and converted more income to cash, compounding free cash flow at an average of 19% over time.
With that, I'll turn it over to Chuck to provide more color on our fourth quarter financials and our 2024 outlook, starting on Slide 8.
Charles McLaughlin
Thanks, Jim and hello, everyone. We ended the year with a high level of performance, generating earnings growth of approximately 3x revenue. Core revenue growth of 3% in the quarter reflected an acceleration in IOS and Healthcare, partially offset by anticipated slowing in Precision Technologies. We achieved record margins in the quarter and full year, driven by the strength of our brands. Earnings per share of $0.98, reflecting operational beat at the midpoint with earnings up 11% year-over-year. And free cash flow was $413 million, down versus the prior year as expected and up 56% on a 2-year stack basis.
For the year, core revenue growth was 5%, exceeding our initial outlook of 4%. Adjusted gross margins expanded by 180 basis points to 59.5%. Adjusted operating profit grew 11% and margins expanded by 160 basis points. Adjusted EPS of $3.43 grew 9% and we delivered on our free cash flow forecast of $1.25 billion which represents 32% growth on a 2-year stack.
Turning to Slide 9; I'll now provide highlights on the fourth quarter performance of each of the 3 segments, beginning with Intelligent Operating Solutions. Q4 core growth was 6%, reflecting continued momentum across this segment. with stable POS trends in all regions and new logos and customer bookings contributing to strong ARR growth. Adjusted operating margins expanded 300 basis points to 34.2% driven by margin expansion in all businesses, accretive software mix and price realization and productivity initiatives.
Overall, we have seen better durability in Fluke throughout the year. given the benefits of innovation and customer adoptions in key growth verticals. Environmental Health and Safety continues to see strong high net growth at ISC and double-digit SaaS growth at [indiscernible]. Facilities and asset life cycle at double-digit core growth throughout most of 2023 driven by continued strength in SaaS, contributing to record margin expansion. Moving on to Precision Technologies. Core revenues in the quarter were slightly ahead of expectations, down 1% driven by lower Sensing revenues more than offsetting growth in Power, Food and Beverage and Aerospace and Defense market.
Adjusted operating margins expanded 270 basis points to 29%, enabled by favorable price and productivity benefits funded throughout the year. Additional highlights include Tektronix which had a record year with 9% core growth, up 25% on a 2-year stack basis, reflecting the benefits of our focused innovation and vertical markets growth initiatives. And while Sensing Technology revenues were down low single digits in 2023, they were up low double digit on a 2 year stack and ended the year with a return to growth in 2 of our 4 businesses.
Now on to Advanced Healthcare Solutions. Q4 growth was 3%, driven by an acceleration to mid-single-digit growth at ASP, excluding Invetech, AHS core growth would have been approximately 6%. Adjusted operating margins expanded 160 basis points to 25.7%, driven by flow-through on consumables, price realization and product additional highlights include. At ASP, we are through the North American channel transition from indirect to direct, driving 7% consumables growth in the quarter. Our Software businesses continued their pace of double-digit SaaS growth with new logo success at Censis and proVation. We expect to sustain this momentum in 2024.
Turning to Slide 10; you can see total growth in the fourth quarter of 4% was driven by expansion in the core with minor contributions from FX and bolt-on acquisitions. By regions, we had mid-single-digit revenue growth in North America, driven by growth in all segments, including stronger growth in consumables, benefiting AHS. Western Europe revenue was up slightly as growth in software was offset by normalizing growth in hardware analytics [ph]. Asia saw continued strength in India and Japan, however, was more than offset by high single-digit decline in China. As a reminder, we anticipated growth in China would be down as we lap outside growth in prior years.
Turning now to Slide 11; we're introducing 2024 guidance, starting with the full year. We expect growth of 6% to 8%, with core revenues up 2% to 4% and acquisition contributions of approximately $215 million. Adjusted operating profit is expected to increase 10% to 13% with margins of approximately 27%. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $3.73 and $3.85 up 9% to 12% include a $0.13 headwind from higher interest expense associated with funding of the EA acquisition. The effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 14.5% to 15%, in line with the average of the last 2 years and reflecting the benefits of the EA acquisition. Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $1.38 billion, representing conversion in the range of 100% to 105% of adjusted net income and 21% free cash flow margin.
For the first quarter, we anticipate revenue growth of 3% to 5%, with core flat to up 2%, driven by the continued momentum in our IOS and AHS segments, partially offset by a low to mid-single-digit decline in PT. Adjusted operating profit is expected to increase 6% to 10%, with margins of approximately 24.8%. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $0.77 to $0.80, up 3% to 7% includes a $0.04 headwind from higher year-over-year interest and free cash flow of approximately $180 million, reflecting normal semi variation.
Moving to Slide 12 and the outlook for 2024 by segments. You can see we expect positive growth and operating margin expansion in each segment in 2024, supported by our alignment secular tailwinds, new product introductions resulting from our robust innovation efforts. The continued resilience of our software and other recurring revenue businesses, the expected delivery of the remaining approximate $100 million of excess backlog in our hardware products businesses, another year of FBS driven execution and the carryover benefits of the productivity initiatives that we executed in 2023. By segment for the year, we are planning IOS to continue its momentum with mid-single-digit core growth and another 100 basis points of margin expansion. Key drivers include stable demand and NPR traction in the hardware products and continued ARR growth supported by strong 2023 SaaS bookings.
We are planning for PT revenues to be up 10% at the midpoint in 2024 with core growth up slightly, reflecting the benefits of the EA acquisition and normalization of orders in hardware and products businesses in 2023. We expect EA to be accretive to adjusted operating margins in 2024. And together with the benefits of our productivity initiatives, we expect PT margin expansion of over 100 basis points. PT's outlook also reflects the realignment of INV into Sensing Technologies Group as we explore strategic alternatives for INV design and engineering business. The remainder Invetech's includes product revenues that align more closely to our automation businesses in Sensing. For comparison purposes, we have provided pro forma segment results for 2023 in the appendix. In AHS, we are planning mid-single-digit core growth, with operating margin expansion of over 125 basis points driven by volume, price realization and productivity. We expect an acceleration in the growth at ASP driven by their improved channel position, NPIs and procedure volumes and new logos and SaaS migrations are expected to drive continued software growth in Healthcare.
Before opening it up for questions, I'll pass it back to Jim for closing remarks.
James Lico
Thanks, Chuck. I'll start this wrap up on Slide 13. I am incredibly proud of the contributions of our 18,000 team members to make 2023 another record year for Fortive. Over the last couple of years, our success executing our strategy to build a more resilient company reflects our strong foundation and enduring principles that underpin our unique and compelling culture. We talked about the operating rigor and leverage of FBS tools to innovate and drive growth across our segments. In addition to higher core growth, the deals we have done are contributing to our multiyear track record, including strong performance again in 2024.
Since 2019, we are sustaining 7% revenue growth, delivering 120 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion per year, driven predominantly by higher gross margins compounding earnings and free cash flow double digits; we have cut net working capital as a percent of sales nearly in half, building 50% more free cash flow per dollar of revenue. This is a testament to our portfolio transformation and the power of FBS fueling our current and future success and with a $60 billion served market, we have substantial runway to accelerate growth organically and inorganically.
This brings me to Slide 14 and how we drive differentiated performance and value creation for our shareholders. With a consistent and compelling 2024 outlook, including 6% to 8% total growth and over 100 basis points adjusted operating margin expansion in every segment. We are on track to our 2025 target of $4.50 of earnings and $1.6 billion of free cash flow. We are confident in our ability to differentiate our performance and believe our outlook is appropriately balanced, remaining agile to deliver for customers and shareholders should the environment differ dramatically. As we showed at our 2023 Investor Day by executing the Fortive Formula, we expect to roughly double our earnings per share and generate more than $8 billion of free cash flow over the next 5 years.
Our M&A funnel remains strong and our acceleration of capital employment as demonstrated in 2023, further positions Fortive as a higher growth cash flow compounder and a premier company delivering exceptional value to shareholders.
With that, I'll turn it back to you, Elena.
Elena Rosman
Thanks, Jim. That concludes our comments. Kristina, we are now ready for questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.
Steve Tusa
Just the kind of trend in the shorter-cycle businesses, Tek and Fluke, maybe just an update on where you stand, book-to-bill how the revenue did this quarter and then how you're thinking about how the year plays out next year?
James Lico
Yes, Steve, it's Jim. I think, number one; I would differentiate Fluke and Tek here. I think we certainly saw, we saw mid-single-digit growth at Fluke in the quarter. We saw growth in orders, point of sales in the mid-single digit around the world. So I think we're seeing the real benefits of the number of transformation things that we've done from an innovation perspective, also with some of the M&A work we've done and in good shape. And I would say Tek, Tek was low single digits in the quarter but quite frankly, off a 20% growth comp in Q4 '22. So still saw some good performance there. We felt really good about the quarter they produced as well.
And certainly, the year that Tektronix had is unprecedented a record year, as we said in the prepared remarks. So as we go into the next year, I think it's -- I think, more of the same at Fluke. We've really seen some resilience and durability activity that we've talked a lot about over the years, playing out there. We probably have a quarter. They're about their fifth quarter of negative bookings. And obviously, we've been working off backlog there. And we would anticipate that book-to-bill there turns positive and probably Q2. So we feel good. North America was really good for tech, where a little bit of slowing that we saw within China as we talked a little bit about our China growth in total and Chuck's prepared remarks. But obviously, part of that Tek's one of our bigger businesses in China. Part of that story is the Tektronix there. So I'll pause there and you've got a follow-up, I'll certainly cover.
Steve Tusa
Yes. And then just how much price do you assume in the for the guide? For 2024?
Charles McLaughlin
We're thinking about 2% to 3%.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe
Good afternoon, just like on the reclass of Invetech to PT, it's a small business, it seems like margins are relatively depressed maybe 6% to 7% margin. Just wondering, I think, Chuck, you went through some of the logic about just maybe talk about what this achieves this class? And maybe just in terms of the importance of this ASP rather AHS acceleration, kind of like how is that benefiting sort of the outlook for AHS because were you assuming that Invetech recovers? Just trying to think about AHS on a like-to-like basis here?
Charles McLaughlin
Thanks for the question, Nigel. I'll take the margin question first. We're talking about the business expanding 125 basis points but that's on a like-for-like basis, if you really look at where we ended with Invetech and we're up probably 200,250 basis points but the business is generating margin expansion of 125 and that's what we've got in the guide. I think the rationale for switching it is the event design engineering piece just isn't as big as we thought it was going to be and it's not but not really moving forward. And so the part that is now the majority of this business really fits better in Sensing.
James Lico
Yes. Nigel, I would just add, we called out in the slide materials that Invetech was a headwind in the quarter for health care to the tune of about 280 basis points. That's probably the largest year-over-year headwind that Invetech has seen. I wouldn't expect the size of that to continue but probably still in the 1% to 2% [indiscernible] continued to be in health care throughout 2024. But that's now reflected in PT.
Nigel Coe
Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just on the transition ASP consumables. Just confirmed that's now fully behind us. There's no lingering impact there? It sounds like it is. But maybe I think we can see the clear sort of margin benefits that we should see coming through from capturing that distributor margin. But maybe talk about the opportunities to drive better growth and having that direct customer connection, what do you see as a potential for revenue benefits?
James Lico
Well Nigel, I would say, number one, yes, we're definitely fully through it. So you saw the benefit of that. I think as we said in the prepared remarks, consumables in North America were up about 7%. Consumables around the world, we're up about 4%. So good performance there. We think mid-single-digit guide for ASP for the full year is a good number. Certainly opportunity to go and on the margin front which we're going after. We were just with the team last week. We actually had them with, we had our Board meeting there and we have the team there for an operating review, highlighting the level of innovation. I talked about in the prepared remarks. We now have a new set of consumables around steam sterilization that are going to now be in the U.S. and Asia that are certified.
So a number of opportunities here to continue to improve the growth. Those are obviously all in Consumables which obviously have higher fall-through. So you like the guide here overall held up 125 basis points in margin expansion mid-single-digit growth. We think that's a great launch point. It certainly certifies I think a lot of the things we've been saying about the direct North American strategy and certainly more broadly around the strategy at ASP and how health will just be a real durable grower for Fortive in '24.
Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Julian Mitchell
I just wanted to check on the sort of margins in the first quarter. So I realize it's not a big sequential decline in sales but you've got a very heavy sort of sequential step down in margins there in Q1, 100% or so kind of drop-through. So is that reflecting maybe something on mix in any of the businesses in the first quarter versus the fourth? I'm just trying to understand maybe on Precision, in particular, how their margins are starting out the year in Q1?
Charles McLaughlin
Nigel, the biggest thing is there's just a seasonal step down in revenue dollars from Q4 to Q1 and that's what gives you a normally seasonal step-down in the margins, pointing out that our Q1 guide is up 75 basis points. So that's a pretty good expansion there. So I think we're seeing pretty good performance across the segments in margin expansion, too.
James Lico
Yes. And I would just say that guide represents record operating margins in the first quarter for Fortive. So I think when you just look at, we do have some expenses that start back up at the beginning of the year, obviously, salaries and some of those things. There's a little bit of that. But at the end of the day, if you just step back, record, that will be a record first quarter for, in the history of Fortive.
Julian Mitchell
And then my follow-up would just be -- is typical, I suppose, you give guidance for year one and then someone asked about year two. But if I look at Slide 14, you do have that, I guess, it seemed medium-term when you gave it but you've got $450-ish million or maybe $430 million [ph], excluding capital deployment number for 2025 and obviously, a year from now, that will be a formal guide whatever you end up giving not a medium-term aspiration. So I guess I'm trying to ask kind of how, given it is only 11 months away now, that period how seriously should investors treat that number of $450 million [ph] does require a fair amount of M&A over this year.
So any thoughts around the M&A market backdrop. One of your acquisitive peers were saying it's maybe looking a little bit better now.
James Lico
Yes, a couple of things. I think when you look at our history in terms of double-digit EPS growth and the compounding free cash flow, I think, it's not an enormously to get to that $450 million. That's why we put those numbers out there a year ago and we reiterated them in the guide and on the presentation. So we obviously feel good long way away, a lot can happen but we feel good about it. I think relative to the M&A market; we just closed a quarter where we did basically 5 deals -- between including kind of closing in the early part of January. So it's across the board in every segment, a variety of different sources from private equity to private ownership, founder-led companies good breadth across a number of our workflows.
So we feel really good about the M&A environment and we just demonstrated really good progress against the M&A environment. EA is starting off really well. And where we start -- we now think that's going to be accretive in the year, only right after closing it. So we've seen really good things there. So, I would say the -- what we've done, we're really proud of that work, good work that set us up well back to your comment about '25 would the EA and those other deals are going to be helpful in '25 for sure. And quite frankly, when you look at the environment that we're in right now, probably a little bit better. Certainly, we've demonstrated that and we want to continue to, as always, as you know, Julian, we're always busy and we're excited about the opportunities that are in front of us but we're also incredibly excited about the teams that have just joined Fortive.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague
Just a couple for me. Just back on ASP and the Consumables growth, 7% sounds pretty healthy. Is there some kind of I don't know, kind of channel fill in the direct model that had to happen, as you looked from distribution to direct, there something abnormal about that number? What are you expecting for consumables growth in the U.S. for 2024?
James Lico
We'll be in the mid-single-digit range. There's probably a hint of catch-up from Q3 there but not a lot of inventory build we would expect it to be mid-single digit for them across the board. And obviously, I wouldn't want to be a predictor of 7% every quarter. But as we said, we validated the strategy, I think, in Q4 with what we want to do as I mentioned, with the team last week, they're incredibly optimistic about where they stand today and where they stand for the year and in the future years as well. So I think we're in a good place.
Jeff Sprague
And then just on EA, obviously, then didn't own it in Q4 but any color on how it grew in Q4? And can you just be a little more specific on what you expect for growth in 2024, again, to be in M&A but kind of the underlying growth in the business in 2024?
James Lico
Yes. We, first of all, we closed the first week of January; we're off to a good start. 100-day plan is scheduled. We've got our [indiscernible] room set up with integration. Our teams are really excited about the work we can do together. As you remember, Jeff, when we announced the deal, we said we'd have the opportunity to take our big Tektronix sales force and sell those solutions. We started our annual sales kick-off over the last couple of weeks. A lot of excitement about that. Relative to, specifically to your question, December was a record order month for the business. So they ended the year strong and there's a tremendous amount of growth opportunities there, in front of us. They've got a good backlog situation.
So we feel good. We feel good about the revenue base for the year and what that can grow. Obviously, it won't be in our core but until '25 but we feel good about the growth. Relative to we now think this is probably a mid-single-digit ROIC in '24 which is up from the original thesis around the deal. So we're already ahead of the game. Growth should be good. And we think the business is probably in the $190 million to $195 million -- $195 million range, that's probably where it will be for the year. So. So we're in a really good place with the business. It's a good team. As I mentioned before and it's going to, that's why I think when you step back and look at the deals we did, the previous question, we feel good about the year. 6% to 8% overall growth for the year stands up, obviously, EA being one of the big parts of that but the other acquisition is adding some as well.
Jeff Sprague
And just I'm sorry, a little quick housekeeping one, too. Just the design piece of Invetech, is that a divestible business? Or are you just winding it down? And how big is that piece?
James Lico
It's in the $20 million range of revenue breakeven. So it's, we'll look at a number of options. I think we've got, there are buyers out there for sure. The team is working on some different things. So the other part of that business is called [indiscernible] motion. So as you can imagine, it really was originally in our Sensing and Automation businesses. It's really -- it helps Life Science and customers but it's but like our other Sensing businesses, quite frankly, it has more of an industrial aspect to, from an OEM perspective. That business has done pretty well over the last few years. So we'll anticipate keeping that as part of the portfolio but we're going to look for options on the other time.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.
Deane Dray
The word destocking didn't prop up in any of your prepared remarks which is a relief. Any color there in terms of inventory in the channel, Fluke, sell-in, sell-through, any issues there?
James Lico
Yes. I think to the second part of your question, mid-single-digit POS growth at Fluke around the world in the fourth quarter. So, good solid growth. Down from the double digit we've seen for a while. But still, I think that would be, that we take that number pretty solidly. A little bit of destocking at Tek in the U.S. Single-digit millions but a little bit and some in China, maybe more broadly. I would say that that's, we now think China is likely to probably not grow in the year that's embedded in our guide and some of that is going to be just, I would say, less destocking than it is just conservativeness on the part of the Chinese distributor and Chinese channel partners to sort of see how the macro evolves out there over the year. But again, that's embedded in our guidance.
Deane Dray
So just to clarify on China, that's flat for the year. Is the expectation?
James Lico
Probably down low single for the year. So that would be our anticipation at this point. A couple of things there. Just starting what we've seen thus far is customers -- a little bit more conservative, as I mentioned. As you know, Deane, we've talked about this over the years. You really don't know China until you see March, you get out, you get to after the Chinese New Year, see how channel partners and customers are going to unfold for the year. We've seen more conservativeness up to this point, in the year. So our anticipation is that the year sort of progresses. We had a really tough comp in the first quarter in China. We had great growth in China last year in the first quarter but we would anticipate for the full year that China would probably be down about low single digit.
Deane Dray
Great. And just one clarification for EA. I believe you said that you were targeting 100 basis points of margin improvement for this year and that it would be the Tek sales force would be selling. Did they come with a sales force at all? And where is that 100 basis points? Is there any kind of manufacturing efficiencies? What are the drivers around the improved margins?
Charles McLaughlin
So Dean, a couple of things to unpack there. When we got EA and they just come with 40% incremental margin. I think the 100 basis points is about core growth that it adds to Tek, is what we called out. We would expect the volume growth that there's, do they go from 40% to 41%? Yes, that wouldn't be super surprising for them. But I think that was more about the impact on core growth for everyone for at Tek. And then on the sales force, I think Jim can give a...
James Lico
Yes. I mean if they came with about a sales force of roughly 40 folks. We 10x that with Tektronix. We have the ability to sell that solution across the board. The teams are working through their cross-selling strategies. And one of the things we said when we announced the deal was that we thought a real opportunity primarily outside of Europe to really accelerate the business through the addition of the Tektronix sales force. So yes, so as Chuck mentioned, already a very profitable company. They had great growth too; they're a good growth company, a great growth company. And even with their size, they had growth at Tektronix and PT. So we're excited about that opportunity. Obviously, that's not the core for the year. That'll be in '25. So far, we really, we're really excited about the business joining Fortive.
Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup.
Andy Kaplowitz
Good afternoon, everyone. Chuck, maybe just a little more color on the expected AHS improvement in '24. Could you talk about Fluke Health, they were discontinuing product lines in '23, as you know, causing you some noise are they over the hump here in '24? And when you look at ASP, I know you're still building out your overall international infrastructure and supply chain. Are you over the hump there in terms of progress and how much restructuring is helping your margin in '24?
James Lico
Why don't I take the first part of that. Yes, Fluke help will probably be in the mid-single-digit range for the year, so pretty close to the segment growth, maybe a little bit less in the first quarter and a little bit better, or first half and a little bit more in the second half. So but they are through some of the things that you described as well.
Charles McLaughlin
With regards to the margin expansion, probably the bigger issue bigger driver behind the margin expansion at Health is the growth at ASP and the top line growth, getting through that just distribution and having Consumables in North America show up like they did in Q4. I think that's probably I had to score 80% of what's driving the margins there.
Andy Kaplowitz
That's helpful, guys. And then maybe just a little more color on price versus cost expectation in '24? I know you said price Chuck but one of your industrial peers report today and reported quite rocky results in terms of its handling of the global supply chain. It seems like Fortive is handling supply chain quite well. Pricing obviously remains sticky. But could you elaborate a little bit what you're baking in for price versus cost and how you would rate the predictability at this point of the global supply chain?
Charles McLaughlin
Well, I think there's a couple of things. In terms of the inflation we're seeing, we're seeing that come down and that's why you're seeing, the price we're putting into the market come down. But we will expect to stay ahead as we always do on the price cost. To supply chains, that continue to get incrementally better every quarter but that doesn't mean they're back to what we would call normal and problems can crop up from time to time. But we think that incrementally better is what we see there. Remember, we're not open to big commodity exposures that can cause maybe some of our peers or other companies that, we have a pretty good line of sight and great, every month, Jim and I are meeting with the OPCO teams hearing what we're seeing on inflation but it's trending the right way, meaning the rate of inflation is coming down.
James Lico
Yes. And I would just add the proof points. Our gross margin expansion over the last several years has been very consistent. I think that speaks to our ability to manage the situation, not just on the price side but on the cost side and our working capital continues to get better and as we noted, as a percent of sales. So we're doing that while not having to have significant increases in working capital. In fact, our working capital is getting better. So we, I think what we'll see this year Andy, just to add on to that is that our teams have done a really nice job. We were just with all of our teams, a couple of weeks ago and they're doing a really nice job on design savings as well. So not only on the negotiated savings but also looking at design, what we call our value engineering effort. And our value, I think we'll have a, right now, our plans for value engineering would be, our cost reductions out of value engineering will be at a record in '24 when we deliver on that through the year.
So a number of things we're doing to continue to stay ahead of price cost knowing that probably price wasn't going to be able to stay at those levels that we had over the last few years. We've always been a good price company. So we'll continue to get our fair share. But I think what we're also trying to do is really push our teams hard on the opportunities on the cost side as well.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research.
Scott Davis
I'm not very good at the Star 1 thing. It's a skill, I guess. But anyways, the, a lot of questions have been answered but I'm kind of curious on ServiceChannel and proVation. If you combine those deals, combined, they're pretty darn important to the kind of long-term growth story. But pretty dilutive the first year and change. But where do you think you'll be in 2024 versus a deal model and those things combined, will you be back in the positive on those things? And I would imagine the compound, right? I mean the growth is so -- it should be high enough, the margin is high enough that the returns on capital kind of go through kind of hockey stick at some point. Are we there yet when you think about 2024?
Charles McLaughlin
Scott, a number of things. First of all, from a top line standpoint and really the bottom line, we think we're on track to running ahead. So but I think when you're talking about dilutive as the ROICs come from low single digits, they're in mid-single-digit territory and accelerate going forward. So we think those two are right on. But accretive now that the, to the top line growth, so let me stop there and see if I understood that part of the question.
Scott Davis
Kind of I guess kind of my point and perhaps you can do this after is that when you announced those deals, it was, I think that the language Jim used at the time is you'll be really happy we own these assets someday just given the growth rates. So I'm just kind of curious if you feel the same way?
James Lico
Maybe just to give you a little bit. I think we were, we anticipated, if I remember correctly in the first year, $0.10 of accretion we ended up with $0.12 of accretion. So in the first year, we delivered on the accretion side. As Chuck mentioned, we're incredibly happy with these businesses, maybe just to take your point. You could see and that's why we really put them on the chart. When you look at the growth rates in the businesses, they're very strong. proVation was already a very high-margin business. One of the highest in Fortive already. ServiceChannel, obviously, was a breakeven business. So there were some concern, could we get that business into the sort of accretive margin rate that we see that's so strong and in Fortive and obviously in IOS and we're obviously there on the Fortive side and they're approaching the IOS side.
So we feel really good in that regard. And the other part of it, we're trying to really make a point in that -- in the prepared remarks, Scott. I know you understand this but it's really how FBS has really made a difference here. You see the net dollar retention, where that's at, now, the ARR growth. The really FBS has really made it both teams, really embraced FBS on the growth and innovation front. They've done a nice job in that in a short period of time. And that's where, that's how you see the net dollar retention numbers which are obviously extremely good and the business is well positioned for the future. And to your point, also, they don't stop at 10% rights, right? They're going to continue. And if you've got 110% to a 112% plus net dollar retention margins in the structure and growing at this rate? Obviously, the [indiscernible] are going to go above 10% in the out years.
Scott Davis
Yes, that makes a lot of sense. Just real quick guys. Does Invetech get worse before it gets better? Just partially just given Sprague's question on kind of the wind down or the sale of the design business but put these things you're selling into some pretty tough markets. But does that end up getting a little bit worse before it gets better in '24? Are we already there?
Charles McLaughlin
I think we're going to run into some easier comparison in the second half and so it will stop being a tough compare for us. And I think that we need some of the dynamics of those markets to recover. Keep in mind, this is a business that's less than $100 million in total. And so it's not it's not quite as impactful as bringing some of these other movers like EA and ASP right now.
James Lico
I would say, Scott, embedded in the PT core growth outlook for Q1, there's about a 1% headwind to core growth in PT due to Invetech.
Scott Davis
It's a statement that you've had a good quarter when we have to pick on a $100 million business, right? So, good job.
Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Rob Mason from Baird.
Robert Mason
I may have missed this, Jim. But how do you think about your overall software growth in '24 relative to the 2% to 4% core growth? How does that roll up?
James Lico
Yes. We feel really good about it, Rob. I think when you look at not only maybe starting with '23, we had really good growth in '23. We'll have high single-digit software growth in '24. So when we look at the ARR numbers, they're good. Obviously, we're just talking about ServiceChannel and proVation in the previous question. But I think across the board, [indiscernible] going to have high single-digit growth. So we feel good about where it's at. I think it's a testament to the strength of how FBS is really adding value and it's a testament to those businesses. and the work they're doing. We didn't talk a lot about AI but we'll start to see as we get into late '24 and '25, so some of our Data Analytics and AI solutions are also going to help the growth rates there.
So we're in a very good place. And I think the strategy is playing out the way we anticipated which is those businesses would have more durable, higher growth rates and ultimately, that would benefit Fortive not only on the growth side but on the margin front. We certainly saw that in '23, you absolutely see that with our double-digit EPS kind of numbers that we'll show in '24.
Robert Mason
Very good. Just as a follow-up, specific to Sensing. How do you, some of your semi cap customers are certainly starting to tee up expectations around a better '25I assume that's, you didn't mention that end market, specifically aerospace, defense, food and beverage, maybe do better this year. But how are you thinking about that market turning in that business for you, semi-cap equipment?
James Lico
Yes. Well, in Sensing, we're about 6 quarters of negative order rates. So we don't anticipate to see the overall over rate start to change the book-to-bill there probably in and around 1, in the second half, for sure, probably starting in sometime in the second quarter. So we start to see things move. We didn't talk about it but number, maybe more broadly about Sensing. One of the things we saw in the fourth quarter was rather than get 12-month blanket orders which we would typically get with OEMs. We got 3-month [indiscernible] orders. So we will see that those orders pick up probably in the second half. So that's the state of the world. Relative to the semi index and where it's at, we're starting to see the green shoots of customers that are starting to talk about orders and our businesses that are maybe in the earlier stages there, a little bit of Setra, a little bit in our KEITHLEY business at Tektronix. they're starting to see customers talking about the second half of this year.
So, we would -- I would think that just overall, we'll start to see some things. We're not anticipating a big step up there. We'll let the [indiscernible] patterns determine that. But we do anticipate at least seeing some of that turn in the second half of the year.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin
Yes. Just maybe and I don't know if, when you were talking before Sensing, you were specifically referring to Sensing or Tek. But maybe just to confirm, what's happening with Tek book-to-bill? And what kind of exit rate are we at a Tek right? Just sort of if you look at the peer orders, Keysight, NATI, you still have orders down, let's call it, mid-teens. So to understand correctly, we're thinking that based on the feedback we're getting on the comps, revenues will be up low to mid-single digits next year, right? Is that the right framework?
James Lico
For Tektronix, we think business will be about low single digits for the year. So just from a revenue perspective, we've had 5 quarters of negative orders there. We'd probably see that in the first quarter. We'll start to see things turn. The book-to-bill starts to turn in and around the second quarter there; so just to kind of give you a sense. And that's -- we've had aerospace and defense has been good. It continues to be good. but it's mostly broadly around electronics and things like that. So some semiconductor customers as well. So and the comments I made around Sensing, semi, I also made a comment about KEITHLEY which is the most of the exposure we have in Tektronix relative the semiconductor. So we think the business is a good place. Obviously, low single digits in the fourth quarter against a 20% comp from a year prior. So still in a good place, record year for Tektronix from a revenue perspective. But probably a quarter or 2 here of absorbing, continuing to absorb some of the market dynamics we described and but the business is in a good shape and exit rate into '25 probably in a good place.
Andrew Obin
And where are we on book-to-bill, sorry?
James Lico
Well, I think in fourth quarter, probably 0.85, probably but we're always below 1 in the fourth quarter.
Andrew Obin
Got you. And just a broader question because it's certainly been a weird '23 and it seems like '24 is going to be strange as well. But I think at your Analyst Day and it's just sort of going back to Julian's question, you did outline the '25 target but you also outlined longer-term targets, right? And if you look at '25 target with sort of, I think, CAGR is 12.5% and longer-term targets, 13.5%, right? We printed 9% EPS growth last year. This year, target is 9% to 12%. I told to get there, there's cushion here, right? Invetech is out of the way. We're probably going to do some M&A. But from your perspective, what needs to sort of go back to normal change from a macro standpoint, what's the biggest lever that needs to change, right, to sort of get back "normal" where you guys can sort of accelerate EPS growth from what we've seen last year. And what we're sort of guiding to this year? Or is that all just M&A? Sorry for an extensive question but yes.
James Lico
Well, I think when you look at our track record over 4 years and what we try to do is not take any one particular year because when you average them out, when we're talking about the out years here, we're talking about the average, right? And when you look at the average, they're not too different future versus prior history. So I think what passes a bit pull-off here. If you look at the success we've had over the last 4 years relative to EPS growth and you sort of fast forward, we continue to use our free cash flow. Obviously, we had interest expense a little higher last year than we anticipated which is why that number would single digit will delever through the year, as you know. So that has some improvements as well.
But I think at the end of the day, we're in a very good place relative to those targets and I think this reflects it. So, there's obviously the macro is always a geopolitical situation. It's probably always one of those things you think about but that's why we said in the prepared remarks, that we've got some scenarios to continue to be agile and dynamic based on what the economic situation looks like it's the best way to say it. So Software and Healthcare is going to continue to compound at higher rates of growth and higher rates of margin expansion and that's going to continue to mix up the portfolio, particularly if you take a longer period of time, like in 2018. So I would say those are the dynamics. You've got to see continue to see those businesses continue to get better, like they will this year, like they've been doing and then continue to do the things that we've been doing relative to productivity and innovation that will continue to help us work through the various markets, secular drivers that we've attached ourselves to broaden the workflow.
And I think the last thing I'd say Andrew, is the 5 deals that we did over the last 30 or 3 months or so, they all have an opportunity to continue to accelerate our compounding. They're all attached to good growth drivers. They're additive growth year and, from a margin perspective, from a bolt-on standpoint, they're all making their associated businesses better over time. And when you take a few years out, they're going to become a bigger part of that. So some of them are small. But if you take a 2-year or 3-year out period, you're in a, they'll be additive as well. So and then as I said, the M&A environment is still, looks like it continues to get better here and we're excited about that.
Andrew Obin
And if I could just squeeze in one more. Should we start to think about Fortive as increasing dividends annually and some framework around share buybacks, maybe offsetting share issuance as long as we're there?
Charles McLaughlin
Well, in terms of the dividends, what we've tried to signal is that as our free cash flow and earnings per share increase, our, you'll see our dividends increase on the same trajectory. With share buybacks, what we did is we restock to where we had, over the last 2 years, we've been opportunistic on buying some shares back. And we just went back to the level we had 2 years ago. M&A is still the priority.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano from TD Cowen.
Joseph Giordano
Just a couple on the M&A side and capital deployment kind of piggybacking on what Scott was talking about. So I mean, you highlighted proVation and you highlighted ServiceChannel. And I think it's pretty clear as to how companies like that can lever up growth and they can accrete to EPS and what they can do to margins. I'm just curious on like the ROIC of these things. Because I think like on proVation, the math was something like it needed to grow 15% a year and have margins expand to like almost to mid-50s from the mid-30s or something like that to hit like a 7.5% return in year 5, like, it looks like at least that slide suggests it's under those targets. So like how do you evaluate where you are in ROIC on deals like that?
Charles McLaughlin
First of all, we look at our ROICs and go back to looking at where the revenue needs to be. Margins start to upgrade on probation as talked about and we're running ahead of where we thought we'd be on the top line. So maybe talk off-line exactly what the original assumptions were. But that's where we know we're at for both of those deals. And so we're on track or ahead of where we thought we'd be a couple of years in. I think the, so I think that's as simple as I can put it.
James Lico
Joe, I would just maybe just add on is the reason why we highlighted these two companies two years out is because when we bought the companies, there were some skeptics, quite frankly, people didn't think we could get ServiceChannel margins into the 20s as quickly as we did. People didn't think that proVation would grow during COVID the way it did. So yes, I wouldn't necessarily say [indiscernible] these were slammed up because there were some doubters out there. And I think what we tried to do in, with two years in, it suggests, or to demonstrate that that, hey, we're exactly where we thought we were in case we're ahead of the game. We were ahead of the game first year out, as I mentioned in the previous call relative to EPS. So these businesses are in good shape.
And as we highlighted back in May, these are, this is consistent with a number of the other deals and that's really what you see in '24 is the portfolio durability based on the success of those deals. So I would just add that into the broader the broader view of M&A and how it's continuing to add ROIC continue to get better and it's adding more durability and capability of the organization.
Charles McLaughlin
And just to clarify, this came up earlier but the combined ROIC and certainly for proVation is already in the mid-single digit for '24-range.
Joseph Giordano
Maybe to piggyback on that, like, you've done deals now across like SaaS type deals and you've done hardware-centric deals as you kind of run FBS through these businesses, I mean, it flexes different muscles that you need to use depending on these. Are you finding like one type of deal somewhat easier to accomplish the goals that you set up at the outset?
James Lico
Well, I would say, certainly, hardware deals is something we've been doing for 20 years in there's, to use your muscle framework. There's a lot of muscle around that. You saw that in, even with some of the COVID challenges in ASP, our continued ability to do things like really improve the free cash returns on the business because of working capital. So I would certainly say that that's, those are things that we've done for a long time. But I think and this is really one of the reasons why we put it on the slide, is that we've really built tremendous capability around software, FBS for Software. And we didn't talk about it but we've now got an FBS suite of AI tools which are really helping drive innovation drive commercial activities for the Software broadly but also for the Software businesses.
So we've really, I'm really proud. I said it in the prepared remarks around how the FBS in and of itself is getting better. And that really means more broadly. It's really, it is, I think what we're really proud of is the fact that if you look at the Fortive's portfolio today, FBS needs as much to a Software business or a Healthcare business or a Traditional Industrial business. FBS may mean different tools. It may mean different applications but the rigor and discipline is exactly the same.
Operator
And we do have time for one last question. Again, this will be our last question of the day. The line comes, I'm sorry, the question comes from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.
Joseph O'Dea
First question just related to the price volume composition of organic and implying volumes kind of flat to up 1% for the year. And I'm trying to understand where kind of the upside risk might sit on the volume side and whether the embedded assumptions are more sort of moving sideways and there can be some upside risk on maybe easier short-cycle comps in the back half of the year? Or just how you've thought about that volume piece of the equation and if there's anything embedded within that as things getting better over the course of '24.
James Lico
I think when you look at and I'll take the hardware business here. When you look at the hardware businesses, there's not a big inflection point as we go through the year. So probably I would say we don't see a big volume, we don't need a big volume inflection as we go through the year simply because of that. I would say, secondly, we're not really expecting a lot of restocking here. So I would say there's probably some volume upside to restocking if we were to see that. But I would say we're certainly not counting on that; and if it was probably more a second half dynamic.
Joseph O'Dea
Okay, makes sense. And then on the productivity front, can you just talk about the margin contribution you anticipate from productivity in '24 and the degree to which that's kind of carryover from '23 actions or additional actions to drive kind of more productivity gains in 2024?
Charles McLaughlin
Yes. I think that normally, we would expect 40% incremental margins. And for the year, we're going to end up at 45%. There's some puts and takes earlier in the year that that we've seen but we're seeing probably if you think about probably $0.07 or $0.08 of productivity coming into, from those actions that are selling into 2024.
Joseph O'Dea
Meaning actions you've already taken and so that's just carrying into '24.
Charles McLaughlin
We're done with the productivity actions, just the benefits are coming in, not that we're taking any more. Sorry about that.
Operator
And I'll now turn the floor back over to Jim Lico for closing remarks.
James Lico
Thanks, Kristina and thanks, everyone, for taking the time today. I know it's a busy day for all of you. Hopefully, what you heard today was our really the benefits of the work we've been doing for several years, both in '23 and how we anticipate '24 to play out. So we're, we feel very, very comfortable with where we stand today. Lots going on in the world, as many of you know but I think how we built constructed the portfolio over the last several years, post-Vontier, is we feel and expect to have a good setup for this year.
We're certainly around for any questions. We want to thank everyone, for your support for '23. We know we'll probably see a lot of you out on the road here over the next few weeks. We look forward to that. And obviously, our team is available for questions and follow-up and then over the next several days. So, thanks. Have a great day. Have a great earnings season and we'll see you on the road.
Operator
Thanks. Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
- Read more current FTV analysis and news
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666491-fortive-corp-ftv-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:11:06Z
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DANBURY – Gerald “Gerry” Janus, age 70, formerly of Naugatuck, passed away peacefully on Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024, at Danbury Hospital after a brief illness.
Gerry was born on Nov. 20, 1953, in Waterbury, the son of the late Frank and Marion (Stahura) Janus. He was a graduate of Naugatuck High School, then started in his early career as a printer for AC Hampson Printing & Co. and being a caretaker for Paul Lecca at the Colgate Mansion, which he enjoyed.
Gerry made his transition to a full-time studio musician in 1988, where he worked in studios in Manhattan and Bridgeport. He was a songwriter and also published his own music, played the keyboard, and guitar.
He worked on so many projects over the years, always flying under the radar, but his most notable work was on the soundtrack for the motion picture “Children of the Corn,” with famed composer, Jonathan Elias.
Gerry really appreciated greatness and grew up loving The Beatles, who had a profound influence on his life. He truly had a passion for the renown headliners in the music business, such as The Beatles, Prince, Tommy Emmanuel, Steely Dan, and Elvis Costello.
Left to honor his legacy and cherish his memory are his brother, John Edward Janus and wife Mary; his nephews, Eric, John Sebastian and his wife Barbara; his great-nephew, John Edward II (Jackie); great-niece, Alice Jean; his former wife Eliete Janus, who never left his side in the hospital; and his very best friend, Rich Case.
He was predeceased by his brother Francis Janus.
Funeral services for Gerry will be private and at the convenience of her family. There are no calling hours. Casey’s Eastside Memorial Funeral Home and Cremation Care, 1987 E. Main St., Waterbury, CT 06705, has been honored to care for Gerry and the Janus family.
In lieu of flowers or donations, Gerry’s family asks that people offer and act of kindness to someone.
Loving kindness is always welcome, and it only takes a moment to offer a message of condolence or words of comfort or share a memory of someone important to you with your family and friends. Please visit the funeral home’s tribute page at caseyfunerals.com to do so.
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https://www.rep-am.com/obituaries/2024/01/31/gerald-janus/
| 2024-01-31T23:11:07Z
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Western School of Science and Technology is a tuition-free, public charter school for grades 7-12.
Although their dedication is to ensure all students are ready for college or a career, it's their sports programs that have provided the biggest boost to their student body.
But how has sports changed their focus? "It helps me gain communication skills and I was able to do teamwork. I was able [ ] to rely on others and know how to support others as well," said senior Sarahi Murga.
The school's campus is right in the middle of Maryvale, a community in the west Phoenix area, where children can sometimes be tempted to go through life on the wrong path.
"I think for the reputation we have in our city... I don't think it's good, but this school definitely [ ] shows the good [ ] in the area," explained senior Abiel Gomez.
"There's a lot of temptations. This isn't the best neighborhood to be around, but there's also a lot of good people that care for us," added senior Hugo Mejia.
One of those people is Adrian España, the director of student and community opportunities.
We asked España why it was important for him to take on this role.
"So for me, when this position opened up, being so close to where I grew up. I was like, I definitely want to continue to grow in education and be someone that the kids can look up to," he responded.
He says he knows the importance of meeting the students where they are because they face unique challenges within their families.
"A lot of our students, they're not just student-athletes. They are their parent's translators. They're part-time employees. They're... some of them are providers for their family. So, all that teaches them how to manage all the different roles that they also play in their community," added España.
That was especially important during and after the COVID-19 pandemic because Maryvale was one of the areas in the Valley hardest hit by the virus.
"We lost family members here. We lost friends. So, after we didn't have any sports at all. We weren't allowed and the parents didn't feel safe," said España.
"I feel like because of Covid, the shutdown, it really like closed in my social circle. Like, I struggled to get back [and] socialize with others because of it," added Murga.
When students were allowed to return to school and finally get back to sports, it was a reawakening helping each athlete focus.
"I felt good to be a big part of something, to know that I'm leading the team and making sure we're all doing good," said Mejia, the quarterback on the football team.
He helped lead the team to the state championships this year where unfortunately they lost, but the students will have lessons to take with them from their whole experience at Western School of Science and Technology as they make their way through life.
"It teaches you to be able to figure out how to accept failure and success. Be able to push yourself and thrive for something you really want, whether it's like a new job or college, you want to get into - scholarships - like just really helps you focus on it," said Murga.
While students look ahead to the future, they are still celebrating their successes. Coach España was named the CAA Division 1 Desert Region Coach of the Year, and they had several students named as "All-Region" players. Now, they're hoping to get back to that championship game next year and win it all.
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https://www.abc15.com/news/local-news/maryvale-school-uses-sports-programs-to-keep-students-on-path-toward-success
| 2024-01-31T23:11:10Z
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Joliet nurses to strike after turning down Ascension Healthcare's 'best and final' offer
JOLIET, Ill. - Nurses at Ascension Saint Joseph - Joliet hospital will be going on strike for two days next week.
The staff gave their notice of intent to strike on Thursday, Feb. 8, beginning at 6:30 a.m. until Saturday, Feb. 10.
RELATED: Joliet nurses turn down Ascension Healthcare's 'final offer' amid contract negotiations
The nurses went on strike twice last year – once in August and once again in November.
The hospital says it has given its best and final offer.
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https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/joliet-nurses-to-strike-after-turning-down-ascension-healthcares-best-and-final-offer
| 2024-01-31T23:11:10Z
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Nuggets' Jokic (back) ruled out vs. Thunder
OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — The Denver Nuggets have ruled out two-time NBA MVP center Nikola Jokic for their game at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night due to lower back pain.
It will be the second game Jokic has missed this season. He also was sidelined on Nov. 27 with a lower back ailment in a contest the Nuggets won over the Clippers in Los Angeles.
Jokic is coming off a game against Milwaukee in which he recorded his 119th career regular season triple-double. He finished with 25 points, 16 rebounds and 12 assists.
The 7-footer from Serbia ranks 13th in points per game (26.3) this season, along with third in rebounds (12.1) and fourth in assists (9.0).
Denver is 1-2 against the Thunder this season, with the win coming on the road. This marks the final meeting of the regular season between the Northwest Division rivals.
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AP NBA: https://apnews.com/hub/NBA
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https://www.tsn.ca/nba/denver-nuggets-nikola-jokic-back-ruled-out-vs-oklahoma-city-thunder-1.2070082
| 2024-01-31T23:11:10Z
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Bo'ness United have exceeded all expectations so far, says boss Stuart Hunter
The Newtown Park side sit third after 24 outings having beaten Edinburgh University 3-1 at home last Saturday afternoon, with the BU now six unbeaten in the league, having won their previous three.
And on the season so far, BU legend Hunter said: “We’ve exceeded my expectations so far. And it is all down to the players – myself and my assistant Michael (Gemmell) simply give the guys a foundation.
Advertisement
Hide AdAdvertisement
Hide Ad"We have some set ideas but that is it and the team have been so consistent over the length of the campaign.
“The hardest thing to do in football is to turn up every week and give the team the same level of effort and determination and everyone has smashed it. We work harder than the opposition.
“My expectations were high but to be third level on points with the team in second is so impressive.
"East Kilbride are a wee bit ahead of everyone else but we have a clear goal to finish this year in that top three or four places.
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Hide Ad“That would be a massive improvement from where the club has previously been in this division. But we aren’t there yet and there is a lot of games to play.”
Bo’ness have recently added the likes of ex-Raith Rovers ace Kieran Mitchell and goalkeeper Jack Ruddy to the squad and Hunter says adding quality is important but his main goal is to build a consistent group over time.
He added: “Looking back at the Bo’ness teams I played in, and across the other clubs at this level, the successful teams are build on togetherness and longevity. Bonnyrigg Rose going up to League 2 are a good example, as are Spartans last season.
“You need to build a core over a number of years and you make sure that only a few go in and go out. For too long in my opinion Bo’ness didn’t really have that. Things like re-signing our own players were left too late.
“I don’t want that here. I want us to be able to show players that we are really building something.”
Bo’ness now travel to Airdrie this Saturday to take on Celtic B on league duty.
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https://www.falkirkherald.co.uk/sport/football/boness-united-have-exceeded-all-expectations-so-far-says-boss-stuart-hunter-4500429
| 2024-01-31T23:11:11Z
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An in-depth look at Nick Sirianni, the controversial head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, and his multi-million-dollar salary
Laura Rodini
Originally Published: January 31, 2024 3 p.m.
Most Read
SUBMIT FEEDBACK
Click Below to:
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https://www.verdenews.com/news/2024/jan/31/an-in-depth-look-at-nick-sirianni-the-controversia/
| 2024-01-31T23:11:11Z
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There's only one week left until Taylor Swift's first Eras Tour show of 2024. "We are all stretching to prep for that tour choreo," Taylor Nation captioned an Instagram photo of Taylor's beloved cat Olivia Benson stretching her leg in the air. "One more week until our first #TSTheErasTour show of the year!" Funnily enough, Taylor posted the same photo with a similar caption to her IG during the original Reputation era on February 5, 2018, leaving fans to speculate if the rerecorded version of that album was soon on the way. "THIS IS NOT FUNNY ANYMORE!! TELL US WHAT THIS MEANS??HELLO?? TAYLOR??" a fan commented on the post.
Billy Joel's new single "Turn the Lights Back On" arrives on Thursday, but you can hear a short clip from it now on his Instagram. "'Turn the Lights Back On' will officially be out at 7am ET! Where will you be when it drops for the first time?" Billy captioned the video.
Ed Sheeran sang his heart out at a karaoke bar on Tuesday while on tour in Japan. He posted a video recapping the evening to Instagram, where he serenaded fans with his own hit track "Shape of You." He captioned the video, "Surprised some Japanese fans at karaoke yesterday with @10969taka, great fun."
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
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https://www.wduv.com/news/music-notes-taylor/RQTKBMT2QHGTQWECP2P3VR5VL4/
| 2024-01-31T23:11:12Z
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At today's FOMC meeting, the Fed voted to hold interest rates steady and signaled that a March cut in interest rates is unlikely. Jerome Powell then delivered a fairly hawkish press conference. This yet again caught market bulls by surprise who had bet heavily on a quick Fed pivot to a low interest rate environment. Between the lines, several interesting stories are playing out at the same time that can give clues about what's going on with the Federal Reserve and the economy. But make no mistake, this Fed is surprisingly hawkish. The large cap S&P 500 (SPY) fell 1.6% today on the news.
At today's meeting, Powell was asked again about the Taylor Rule – a well-known model that's designed to approximate the correct Fed funds rate for any given rate of inflation and unemployment. The shocker here – after years of rates being below the Taylor Rule's recommendation, Fed policy is now clearly restrictive. Powell acknowledged the model but reaffirmed that the Fed would be holding rates steady.
Out of 30 model runs, 18 are suggesting a cut (red) and 12 are suggesting a hold (white). The Taylor Rule suggests that the Fed could go either way between cutting and holding. Given the history of surprise inflation surges in the past, the Fed is prudent to hold here.
However, Powell went further though and suggested that a cut in March would be unlikely. This is where things get interesting. Why would he be going against the model? History is a guide. Paul Volcker got burned by cutting rates too soon and had to take them even higher to finish off inflation in the early 1980s! More recently, Alan Greenspan's role in the 1990s tech bubble has been debated – the Fed cut rates to stave off a crisis from long-term capital management but market participants took the ball and ran with it, how much this fueled the massive asset bubble that ensued is something that's now debated.
Powell might be being coy here and not saying the obvious. The Fed is almost certainly concerned behind the scenes about further inflating an asset bubble if they begin to cut rates. The Bank of England doesn't have to be so circumspect – they're stating publicly that they're concerned by excessive valuations in U.S. tech stocks. If so, taking financial conditions into account is somewhat of a new school approach for the Fed, while the old-school approach is to simply ignore asset bubbles.
The Fed has signaled that it's willing to go against mainstream economic models here to ensure that inflation is beat. Beneath the surface of a meeting of simply holding interest rates steady, that's some incredibly hawkish stuff. The voting composition of the Fed also is different in 2024 – a few of the more dovish Fed members won't be voting in 2024, whereas in 2025 they will get votes.
It's not immediately clear why this is, but I have several theories:
- The theory I discussed above is that the Fed is keeping rates high to avoid fueling a stock market bubble and will continue to do so as long as asset prices remain elevated.
- A second theory that deserves some consideration is that the Fed wants to avoid being seen as influencing November's U.S. presidential election. Cutting rates at every 2023 meeting from March onward is likely to fuel Republican discontent with the Fed – and if the Republicans win this could be reflected by reducing the Fed's independence.
- A third theory is that the Fed is bureaucratic and has a hard time pivoting without a crisis forcing it to. The Fed was too slow to raise rates in 2021 which fueled the inflation, and they may be too slow to cut in 2024 even if a domino effect starts to happen in the labor market where layoffs begin to lead to more layoffs. This theory also is plausible.
What's going on here? I can't say for certain, but the Fed is taking a different approach here than they have in the past.
Market Reaction and Implications
Stocks fell about 1.6% on the news, which wasn't too surprising to me given that sentiment was max-bullish for weeks.
The action in bonds was perhaps more interesting, with Treasuries catching a safe-haven bid after New York Community Bank (NYCB) posted a loss and cut its dividend. New York Community Bank bought the assets of Signature Bank (OTC:SBNY) when Signature was shuttered by the FDIC last March, so something is going on here that's worrying the market. It could be nothing, but the bond market seemed to move more off of this than off this morning's other economic data. For reference, Signature Bank is where my friends in South Florida would take deals that other banks turned down for being too risky – it's not surprising that they're taking losses on their loans now.
We're probably not looking at a repeat of last March's bank crisis but I wouldn't be surprised to see more lenders get quietly merged by regulators. If this happens, you're likely to see the Fed reporting a sudden increase in discount window borrowing in its weekly balance sheet updates.
The Fed is willing to continue putting a lot of pressure on the economy with the current level of Fed funds rate. Perhaps they're giving themselves room to avoid committing if war or other factors cause inflation to resurge, but I'm honestly surprised that the Fed didn't come out and signal a bunch of rate cuts today. This said – the Fed's policies are subtly working to bring markets back into balance.
New home prices are down about 20% off the peak, which will start to put pressure on the resale market shortly.
Used car prices are retreating in similar fashion off of their bubble peak by closer to 25%.
And, if you don't like the current off-strip casino atmosphere of the stock market, cash is still paying 5.4% risk free.
The Fed just indicated they're going to keep it that way for a while, barring some sort of financial blowup.
Bottom Line
The Fed didn't cut rates today, and Powell indicated that they're not likely to cut rates in March either. These inflation-adjusted rates are quite restrictive, and I wouldn't be surprised to see unemployment start to rise as a result. Whatever the Fed's rationale may be for holding rates high, the basic situation remains the same– stock valuations are unusually high, while cash and other low-risk investments are paying over 5%. The longer the Fed holds rates high, the more this disparity matters for the market and for the economy at large.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666492-powell-takes-a-stand-reading-between-the-lines-of-todays-surprising-fomc-meeting?source=feed_all_articles
| 2024-01-31T23:11:12Z
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THOMASTON – Mrs. Germaine “Geri” (Ouellette) Bilancia, 85, passed away on Monday, Jan. 29, 2024, at Waterbury Hospital. She was the wife of the late James Bilancia.
Born in Waterbury on May 3, 1938, she was the daughter of the late Chanel and Lillian (Theriault) Ouellette. She was a retired employee of Naugatuck Valley Community College, where she worked for more than 20 years. She enjoyed the outdoors, gardening, and boating, but most of all she loved being a grandmother to Alexandra and Caroline.
Geri will be greatly missed by all who were blessed to know and love her.
Left to cherish her memory, and carry on her loving legacy, are her daughter Cheryl and her husband Mark Zielke, her son Cliff Kellas; her granddaughters Alexandra and Caroline Zielke; her brother Benoit Ouellette, sisters Evelyn and Eugenia Ouellette; and several nieces and nephews.
Funeral services will be at noon on Monday, Feb. 5, at Woodtick Memorial, 420 Woodtick Road in Wolcott. Burial will follow in Calvary Cemetery. Calling hours will be Monday from 10 a.m. until services begin at noon.
Woodtick Memorial is honored to serve Germaine’s family and you may visit woodtickmemorial.com for online tributes and more information.
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https://www.rep-am.com/obituaries/2024/01/31/germaine-geri-bilancia/
| 2024-01-31T23:11:13Z
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A German Shepherd named Indy is on a long road to recovery after falling down an old well around this time last year.
Scripps News San Diego caught up with Indy at physical therapy on Tuesday to track his progress.
"So, Indy is here for his therapy treatment … Yes you're talking about it!" the physical therapist said as the dog chimed in with a lively bark.
The 10-year-old German shepherd is a retired police dog that captured the heart of his community after he was rescued from a 40-foot well in Chula Vista, California.
"He had a giant scar and cut from his shoulder all the way to his back — a very bad wound that was filled with mud," said Mark Pugh, Indy's owner. "He strained his legs and ruptured a disc in his back."
Pugh said after the accident, Indy couldn't walk at all. Pugh has been taking him to Aqua Animal Care Center in Oceanside twice a week for physical therapy.
The facility has an underwater treadmill and laser therapy, which requires Indy to don some spiffy goggles.
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"It brings in good blood flow, it reduces inflammation, reduces pain," the physical therapist said about the laser treatment.
Indy also does a series of exercises, building his balance, coordination and muscle strength. The treatment is working, but at a steep cost.
"His spirit's coming back," said Pugh. "It's almost to the point where if I don't find other resources, or I get the insurance company to come forward, I'll be out of money next month."
Combining the physical therapy, Indy's emergency veterinary care and monthly medication, Pugh said the bill for his precious dog's treatment has crossed the $100,000 mark.
A GoFundMe page was set up to try and raise funds for Indy's care, and it was shared out by Scripps News San Diego.
Despite the six-figure cost, Pugh said he can't imagine not doing everything he can to help Indy live and recover — especially since man's best friend has been there for him.
"When you take on a pet ... you're supposed to care for them and treat them and shelter them. That's what you take on. It's not a lighthearted decision. That's what you take on," he said.
This story was originally published by Madison Weil at Scripps News San Diego.
Trending stories at Scrippsnews.com
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https://www.abc15.com/retired-k-9-s-owner-faces-steep-vet-bills-after-dog-falls-down-well
| 2024-01-31T23:11:16Z
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Man dies in hospital after being shot in Chatham: police
CHICAGO - A man was shot and killed in the Chatham neighborhood and Chicago police are searching for the suspect responsible.
The shooting happened just after 1:30 p.m. Wednesday in the 8000 block of S. Cottage Grove.
Police say a 20-year-old man was found unresponsive after being shot in the chest.
He was taken by ambulance to the University of Chicago in critical condition. A short time later, he died from his injury.
The victim's identity has not been released.
Authorities have not made an arrest yet. The investigation continues.
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https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/man-dies-in-hospital-after-being-shot-in-chatham-police
| 2024-01-31T23:11:16Z
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