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from the pandemic environment when consumers often had no choice but to spend their money on stuff that was available online.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nDaria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is a leader in its industry and has a strong brand. Its AWS is a profitable and strong business. But headwinds for the core retail business are mounting, with inflation, a potential recession, and a shift in consumer spending all pressuring the company's business. At the same time, Amazon has not become cheaper in recent months, despite its shares falling. In fact, AMZN is now trading at a more expensive valuation compared to half a year ago.\nAmazon reported its first quarter earnings a while ago and missed on both lines. Revenue grew by only 7%, which means that there was essentially no growth in real terms as inflation was running around that level at the time. GAAP profits missed estimates widely, although one can say in Amazon's defense that this was partially due to a non-cash asset writedown of the company's stake in Rivian (RIVN). Even apart from that, however, results were far from compelling.\nOperating income was more than cut in half, dropping to just $3.7 billion for the quarter, or around $15 billion annualized -- not really a compelling earnings pace for a company that is still trading north of $1 trillion today.\nPotentially even worse, Amazon's guidance for the current quarter, Q2 2022, was even worse. The company's forecast that revenues will fall into a range of $116 billion to $121 billion implies revenue growth of just 3% to 7%, or 5% at the midpoint. When we consider that inflation was running at a 7.9% pace during the most recent month, that means that growth in real terms will most likely be negative by around 3% -- not really what one would expect from a growth company that trades at a pretty high valuation.\nMost of Amazon's issues are not company-specific, but rather macro driven. There are several important factors at play. The first one of these is that high inflation is bad for consumer spending on discretionary goods. When consumers have to pay way more for essential items such as rent, gasoline, electricity, and food, that means that less spending power is available for clothes, electronics, furniture, and so on.\nGasoline costs have risen by more than 50% for consumers, and the trend does not look like it is breaking down anytime soon. Food expenses, as measured by the CPI methodology, are up slightly more than 8% over the last year. That, combined with soaring expenses for housing due to rising interest rates and rising rent, has led to a significantly worsening consumer outlook when it comes to other goods.\nThe current consumer sentiment reading is 58, by far the worst reading over the last five years. Even during the peak of the pandemic, during the lockdown phase, consumer sentiment was significantly stronger than it is today. High inflation and worries about a potential recession clearly hurt consumers and their expectations for the future. This should be clearly reflected in Amazon's future results -- not only in the Q2, where we already know that growth will be uncompelling, but likely also in Q3 and Q4. In case we get into a recession, which does not seem unlikely according to estimates, consumer spending could slow down further. Consumers will most likely not cut back on staples such as food, beverages, alcohol, tobacco, household goods, and so on. Instead, they will cut back on discretionary stuff that is nice to have, but not necessary -- many of the things that Amazon sells fall into that category.\nA negative impact on discretionary consumer spending is not the only headwind stemming from inflation, however. On top of that, Amazon will be hurting due to rising costs. With gasoline and diesel prices at record highs, transporting goods to customers has become more and more expensive in recent quarters. With prices for these fuels rising to new record highs in Q2, it seems reasonable to assume that margins during the current quarter will take another hit. On top of that, inflation pressures Amazon's costs in other areas. Shipping costs, e.g. for moving a container of goods from China to the US, have soared in recent years. Congestion at ports in the US, as well as at ports in China, has not cleared up, which is why the situation could remain like this for some time.\nWage pressure is another factor to consider. Amazon has to spend more on employees both on the labor side, e.g. for warehouse personnel and drivers, but also for the engineers at its offices -- Amazon has more than doubled its maximum base pay for these types of employees in 2022. With an ongoing labor shortage in the US and some other markets, employees are in a good negotiating position that could allow them to push through major pay increases this year, especially since high inflation readings give them a good reason to do so. Higher employee expenses will of course pressure Amazon's profits, all else equal. Since forecasted growth for the current quarter isn't strong at all, it would not be surprising if higher employee costs can't be offset by overall business growth, which would then mean that margins will continue to decline.\nOne more headwind for Amazon is the waning of the pandemic. During the lockdown phase, consumers oftentimes had no other way to spend their cash than buying stuff online. Travel, dining out, outdoor entertainment, and even brick-and-mortar retail were made difficult or outright impossible due to lockdowns and other pandemic measures. That was a huge tailwind for Amazon and its e-commerce peers and explains why Amazon was able to grow its revenue by almost 70% between 2019 and 2021. But that pandemic tailwind has now come to an end, as lockdown measures have ended in most markets and as consumers have more options for spending their money compared to the last two years. Of course, those that are hurt too much by inflation don't have the ability for discretionary spending at all in the current environment. But those that still have spending power left will opt for holidays, dining out, experiences-type spending to a larger degree than over the last two years. This naturally means that a lower portion of their overall spending power will go to goods-type spending. Someone flush with cash that upgraded their wardrobe, electronics, or furniture during the pandemic (= buying stuff) may now opt for concerts, cruises, or air travel as those things have become possible again (= buying experiences). This trend naturally is bad for a company that primarily sells stuff, such as Amazon, while companies that sell experiences should benefit from that shift in consumer spending.\nWhile all of that sounds pretty negative, I do not believe that Amazon is a bad company. It has a strong brand, and AWS is a highly attractive business unit. But it seems clear that the times have gotten tougher for Amazon. While the company was benefiting massively from the environment in 2020 and 2021, when consumers were buying large amounts of stuff online and when inflation was low, the company is now hurting in the current environment. That is reflected in the profit estimates from the analyst community:\nSeeking Alpha\nIn the above chart we see how EPS estimates for the next seven quarters, including the current one, have changed over time. Clearly, things are moving in the wrong direction -- due to the headwinds shown in this article. Earnings per share estimates for the current quarter, for example, have crashed by 70% over the last six months, as analysts are now forecasting just $0.19 per share on an adjusted basis. This does not yet factor in further write downs in the Rivian stake, which will happen as RIVN has dropped from $50 to $30 so far this quarter.\nLikewise, earnings per share estimates for the next six quarters, i.e. through the end of 2023, have dropped dramatically. Overall, this has led to the following reductions in Amazon's annual earnings per share estimates:\nSeeking Alpha\nProfits during the current year are now forecasted at less than $1 per share, down more than 60% over the last six months. EPS estimates for the following four years have dropped by 23%-30%, respectively. When we compare this with Amazon's share price performance in the same time frame, we see that Amazon has become more expensive. Amazon has dropped by 30% over the last six months, which is significantly less than the decline in this year's estimated earnings per share.\nAmazon was trading at 66x 2022's expected earnings half a year ago [estimated EPS of $2.62 and a share price of $174], while Amazon is now trading at 123x 2022's expected earnings. In other words, the company's profitability problems have made the earnings multiple rise by around 100% despite the fact that Amazon's shares declined significantly over the last six months. I thus do not believe that the recent share price decline makes for an especially great buying opportunity, as it was accompanied by a significant worsening of business conditions.\nAmazon is not a bad company at all, and it has been a great investment for those that bought at the right time. But the company is clearly running into major headwinds, as sales are barely growing (actually declining in real terms), while inflation leads to rapidly growing expenses. At least for now, this inflation-sensitive stock that benefitted so much from the now-ended pandemic environment is not a great buy. At more than 120x this year's earnings, AMZN is now trading at a more expensive valuation than it did half a year ago, which is why I do not see a good reason to buy here.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent. Start your free two-week trial today!\nThis article was written by\nJonathan Weber holds an engineering degree and has been active in the stock market and as a freelance analyst for many years. He has been sharing his research on Seeking Alpha since 2014. Jonathan\u00e2\u0080\u0099s primary focus is on value and income stocks but he covers growth occasionally.\nAnalyst\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n", + "timestamp_ms": 1654861500000, + "published_utc": "2022-06-10T11:45:00Z", + "article_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517495-amazon-beware-its-problems-are-mounting", + "label_type": [ + "[1][a] Macro & Economic News", + "[1][c] Company-Specific News", + "[2][a] Fundamental Analysis" + ], + "label_time": [ + "[1][b] Medium-Term Retrospective (3\u201312 months)", + "[2][b] Recent Trends (Past Few Weeks \u2013 Ongoing)", + "[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)" + ], + "label_sentiment": [ + "[3][a] Bearish" + ] + }, + "trend": { + "input_percentage_change": 5.329728110317649, + "input_bin_label": ">+4%", + "output_percentage_change": -7.017002454113943, + "output_bin_label": "<-4%", + "overall_percentage_change": -4.230667832216344, + "overall_bin_label": "<-4%" + 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